Match Making Rating Tool - Page 172

korona

1098 Posts

November 12 2013 04:18 GMT

#3421

On November 12 2013 13:12 NiteshadeSC2 wrote:
Surprise surprise. The tool doesn't work... again.

I updated the DB, and this is what I am getting:

+ Show Spoiler +

22:44:32 MMR-Stats 10.0
22:44:32 --------INIT START--------
22:44:32 OK File-Encoding UTF-8
22:44:32 OK Sc2Gears auto-save is enabled.
22:44:32 Loading HOTS DB file...
22:44:32 OK Loading DB version 16.1 done
22:44:33 OK DB up to date!
22:44:33 Loading character profiles:
22:44:33 Profile: http://us.battle.net/sc2/en/profile/1710737/1/Niteshade/
22:44:33 Profile: http://kr.battle.net/sc2/ko/profile/4398903/1/Niteshade/
22:44:33 Profile: http://eu.battle.net/sc2/en/profile/4135726/1/Niteshade/
22:44:33 OK Settings loaded!
22:44:33 OK Gamedata: 65 Games loaded.
22:44:33 Loading Archive...
22:44:33 OK Gamedata: 70 Games loaded.
22:44:33 Memory scanner is enabled
22:44:33 OK Triggers ready!
22:44:34 OK: Program is up to date
22:44:34 --------INIT END--------
22:44:36 Pre-trigger: Reading web profiles
22:44:38 Webgrabber: Player false
22:44:39 Webgrabber: Opponent false
22:44:39 Pre-trigger: Done reading web profiles
22:44:39 Pre-Trigger done
23:07:10 Post-trigger: Start
23:07:50 Post-trigger: Reading web profiles
23:07:52 Webgrabber: Player false
23:07:54 Webgrabber: Opponent false
23:07:54 Post-trigger: Done reading web profiles
23:07:54 Bonus calc (Niteshade master+): max end: 47, max fetch: 47
23:07:54 Bonus calc (Niteshade diam-): max end: 27, max fetch: 27
23:07:54 Bonus calc (Maleficent master+): max end: 47, max fetch: 47
23:07:54 Bonus calc (Maleficent diam-): max end: 27, max fetch: 27
23:07:54 Calculating adjusted points for the players (either Alg. A or B needs to succceed for certain player)
23:07:54 Adjusted calculator ERROR: Invalid player data: http://us.battle.net/sc2/en/profile/1710737/1/Niteshade/
23:07:54 Adjusted calculator ERROR: Invalid player data: http://us.battle.net/sc2/en/profile/1666354/1/Maleficent/
23:07:54 ERROR LASTCHECK : Both players invalid
23:07:54 Gamecheck: false
23:07:54 POST-Trigger done
23:07:54 Data quality needs to be 100% to be able to calculate MMR
23:07:54 Data quality for calculating Player's MMR: 0%
23:07:54 Data quality for calculating Opponent's MMR: 0%
23:07:55 OK Uploader: game uploaded
23:07:55 Ladder Game Done!
23:07:55 --------------------------

It is becoming increasingly rare to get a "good game" with this tool... rendering it somewhat useless. Over the last 38 games the tool monitored, only 1 was a "good game" with results being displayed....

I understand it is free... but....

Nites

Surprise surprise you did not read my last post... again. Now go yelling at Blizzard that they fix NA API or switch servers!

icezar

Germany240 Posts

November 12 2013 08:37 GMT

#3422

I hereby admit that this tool does calculate MMR correcty. :-(
I was wrong thinking i should be promoted to Diamond when my mmr was only mid gold :-((((

So i guess the explanation has to be that now there are less and less active players because it cannot be just me playing bad :D

gg wp

Wilko

Germany470 Posts

November 12 2013 09:08 GMT

#3423

Thanks for the fast updates
Really appreciate your work

korona

1098 Posts

November 12 2013 10:36 GMT

#3424

As an update Blizzard seems to have fixed NA server API as last error was recorded 3 and half hours ago based on uploaded data.

On November 12 2013 17:37 icezar wrote:
I hereby admit that this tool does calculate MMR correcty. :-(
I was wrong thinking i should be promoted to Diamond when my mmr was only mid gold :-((((

So i guess the explanation has to be that now there are less and less active players because it cannot be just me playing bad :D

No the main reason is MMR decay: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=429734

If you are inactive for more than 2 weeks, Blizzard adjusts your MMR directly depending on the length of your inactivity. Maximum decay is ~300 on MMR tool scale, which is little more than a range of one typical league.

Based on sc2ranks the user base size is still healthy. But based on my personal empirical experiences, the matchmaker is indeed pairing opponents with higher MMR differences than before during the 'silent hours'. For example during last month if I have played on NA during EU evening (early morning or mid-day on NA) some opponents have had even over 300 points higher MMR (verified manually). I don't remember ever seeing that high differences before.

Many find MMR decay to be very demotivating as a result opponent skill varies a lot. For example if you are a gold player, you get faced "normal golds" and decayed players. If the decayed player typically belongs to master range, the skill difference between him and a typical gold player is very large. But as they have similar MMR, the matchmaker thinks both are in same skill level. One could describe that it is "Wild West" to whom you are matched against nowadays. If you want to maximize your chance to play against players that 'normally' belong to certain MMR range, you play only during the prime time of that server (when there is most players playing). I would think MMR decay causes that lots of the 'casual' SC2 players will quit, as they do not have enough time to overcome the decay if it happens (takes around 20 wins more than loses to overcome max decay. E.g. 20 W - 0 L. It is still unknown if Blizzard has adjusted decay mechanic for this season). And it is not fun if matches become one-sided (after decay crushing lesser players or get crushed by players who have decayed from even higher).

Val_

Ukraine156 Posts

November 12 2013 12:42 GMT

#3425

hey

is db locked now? (first season week)

thx for your work

korona

1098 Posts

November 12 2013 13:14 GMT

#3426

On November 12 2013 21:42 Val_ wrote:
hey

is db locked now? (first season week)

thx for your work

It has been open since last night http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=334561&currentpage=171#3419

NA had problems after that, as Blizzard had failed to update data on NA API, but they fixed that some hours ago. Of course as it is a new season, there is a possibility that Blizzard has changed offsets. If they have, then calculations will be incorrect for couple of weeks. But it should be quickly evident at least if there have been larger changes (results would be all over the board especially if you face opponents from multiple different leagues).

I will likely update GM thresholds next week after GM has been opened for S16 (if there is no offset changes). There are too few GM range players using the tool that estimates made before the opening would be close enough.

But as reference (it is interesting to see if trend continues):
GM border for EU at start of S14 was 1950, it had increased to 2130 by start of S15.
GM border for NA at start of S14 was 1900 (or slightly lower), it had decreased to 1830 by start of S15.

Edit: Now on Wednesday I quickly browsed through lots of user graphs. They looked normal (if there were notable offset changes then many of the graphs would have been erratic). Thus it is likely there has not been offset changes for this season. In few weeks I will recheck via calculations.

ThePastor

New Zealand380 Posts

November 17 2013 08:10 GMT

#3427

I have started using the MMR tool and am up to 20 games placedd on the KR ladder, and none of them have provided accurate data. What do I have to do to get it working?

Val_

Ukraine156 Posts

November 18 2013 01:08 GMT

#3428

GML EU = 2083 points enough to qualify (just did that)

last season was 2175

+ Show Spoiler +

( http://imgur.com/DUBuL74 )

[image loading]

( http://imgur.com/t8HKnAX )

korona

1098 Posts

November 18 2013 20:10 GMT

#3429

On November 18 2013 10:08 Val_ wrote:
GML EU = 2083 points enough to qualify (just did that)

last season was 2175

+ Show Spoiler +

( http://imgur.com/DUBuL74 )

[image loading]

( http://imgur.com/t8HKnAX )

On November 12 2013 22:14 korona wrote:
But as reference (it is interesting to see if trend continues):
GM border for EU at start of S14 was 1950, it had increased to 2130 by start of S15.
GM border for NA at start of S14 was 1900 (or slightly lower), it had decreased to 1830 by start of S15.

Thanks!

S16 EU border was ~2070 when GM opened
S16 NA border was ~1800 when GM opened

Please note that as we do not have data for all low GM:s, the border might have been slightly lower too. Also note as GM entry threshold is dynamic, it has risen from these numbers after people started to get in.

CH, KR and SEA are still unknown as the tool has no GM users for this season yet. I will check last season's numbers for those servers later this week. China had at least one GM user last season. After I have better idea about these 3 servers I will update the DB file to reflect new GM borders.

korona

1098 Posts

November 18 2013 20:21 GMT

#3430

On November 17 2013 17:10 zasg wrote:
I have started using the MMR tool and am up to 20 games placedd on the KR ladder, and none of them have provided accurate data. What do I have to do to get it working?

Depending your position in MMR range of your league, it may take tens of games before you get a 'good game' from which your MMR can be calculated. Enabling the memory reader increases your chances to get good games (if memory reader is off, then only games where opponent wins and has bonus pool left can potentially give good enough data). More info e.g. in this post: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=334561&currentpage=162#3226

Of course if I knew your bnet id, I could check from the data is there are other problems.

Tisdel

9 Posts

November 19 2013 16:22 GMT

#3431

So does anyone have a rough idea of how many games is "Stable" for promotion now? I assume we have tonnes of data.

korona

1098 Posts

November 19 2013 18:24 GMT

#3432

On November 20 2013 01:22 Tisdel wrote:
So does anyone have a rough idea of how many games is "Stable" for promotion now? I assume we have tonnes of data.

You mean how long it takes for MMR to stabilize into new league? In the past Blizzard used MMR moving average for this (their formula for moving average is unknown and should not be mixed with the 'moving average' feature of the tool). But since release of HotS it seems they do not use moving average anymore for promotions. Promotions seem to happen immediately after player's MMR crosses a league threshold. Before HotS there was a visible stabilization period in MMR tool graphs too.

Edit: One exception to this rule is if you start from blank MMR. Then it does not promote you immediately. For example you can be promoted to master league in 25th match (includes all 5 placement matches) at earliest, even if your MMR had been in master range for some time. Promotions regarding lower leagues are also delayed. But after 25 matches promotions start happening immediately.

Tisdel

9 Posts

November 20 2013 00:15 GMT

#3433

On November 20 2013 03:24 korona wrote:

Show nested quote +

I'm not sure that's true. I just got promoted last game. Looking at my graph I've crossed my current suggested mmr a few times, and been higher even within my moving average.

I mean, it could be the +/- 24, but it seems unlikely that it undershot twice, then upshot once.

See for image : http://imgur.com/23uUznc

LimeNade

United States2125 Posts

November 20 2013 02:58 GMT

#3434

how do i figure out what MMR i need to hit for masters in NA this season?

korona

1098 Posts

November 20 2013 06:46 GMT

#3435

On November 20 2013 09:15 Tisdel wrote:

Show nested quote +

Every good result has a certain error margin that differs based on certain factors. This error margin is visible in 'Analyse Log'. Also results from 'loses' often give slightly higher results than 'wins' (the actual value is often likely little bit lower than the 'good result' from loss and little bit higher than 'good result' from win).

And your graph is within typical error ranges. The first time it goes over the silver threshold, the actual values are likely just under it. To see which games are considered 'good', you can enable following setting: 'Config' > 'Data' > 'Mark assumptions / bad games'. You can also hover your mouse over the match dots to see the labels for more info,

Also remember that each match dot represents the MMR in the start of the game. When you get promoted, the promotion value is presented by the following match dot. In your case you were promoted in your last match. The graph always shows an estimate match dot after the last game played (when you hover your mouse over it, it says 'match not yet played'). Even that estimate suggest the MMR crossed the threshold where it supposed to.

On November 20 2013 11:58 LimeNade wrote:
how do i figure out what MMR i need to hit for masters in NA this season?

You can enable the master promotion line from the lower toolbar. Of course there is a possibility that Blizzard would have changed the offsets. But when I checked lots of user graphs some days ago, the graphs looked normal and promotions happened where they were supposed to (within error ranges). So likely there was either no offset changes or the changes were very small. To ensure this via calculations, it typically requires data from few weeks (one to two weeks from now).

jackslater

Russian Federation604 Posts

November 20 2013 14:00 GMT

#3436

Can somebody expland me what is this? I'm in plat league with near 70 games in past 2 days...
I'm insert my US profile: http://us.battle.net/sc2/en/profile/5025403/1/BongBong/ put button "use memory" but this programm still don't work. Help plz! Another options and folders already checked.

[image loading]

korona

1098 Posts

November 20 2013 14:11 GMT

#3437

On November 20 2013 23:00 jackslater wrote:
Can somebody expland me what is this? I'm in plat league with near 70 games in past 2 days...
I'm insert my US profile: http://us.battle.net/sc2/en/profile/5025403/1/BongBong/ put button "use memory" but this programm still don't work. Help plz!
+ Show Spoiler +

You don't have any games recorded.

Most likely reason is that there is something wrong with your sc2gears replay auto-save settings. You can check those settings by selecting 'Settings' > 'Miscellaneous settings' and then checking following two tabs 'Replay auto-save' and 'Folders'. For example you may have wrong folder selected and thus nothing is auto-saved.

If everything is fine regarding sc2gears auto-save, then it could be 2 reasons: 1) you have set wrong accounts in MMR tool, 2) You play some other mode than ranked 1v1 (only ranked 1v1 is supported).

Pirfiktshon

United States1072 Posts

November 20 2013 14:12 GMT

#3438

You have to have it on as it is here and play ladder games while the program is on. Once it has enough games to calculate then it will place your MMR.....

jackslater

Russian Federation604 Posts

November 20 2013 14:39 GMT

#3439

On November 20 2013 23:12 Pirfiktshon wrote:
You have to have it on as it is here and play ladder games while the program is on. Once it has enough games to calculate then it will place your MMR.....

Hm thanks, im try this now! Thanks to all!

korona

1098 Posts

November 20 2013 14:45 GMT

#3440

Yes it often takes lots of games to get the first 'good game' (little bit luck, but mostly due your position in MMR range of your league). But this is not the problem the previous poster is experiencing. He has 0 recorded games (in the counter '0 / 0' the second number shows how many games have been recorded. The first number shows how many 'good games' there has been) --> He has some other problem.

On November 20 2013 23:39 jackslater wrote:

Show nested quote +

Hm thanks, im try this now! Thanks to all!

Please follow these instuctions: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=20263250

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