EPTTop Tier Korean ZvT and TvZ TLPD statistics - Page 9
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FinalForm
United States450 Posts
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neoghaleon55
United States7435 Posts
On March 16 2012 17:00 flowSthead wrote: But his overall ELO is a measure of his other matchups as well, not TvZ. And since you are only looking at the TvZ matchup, that should be the only relevant thing. Who cares how he does against Protoss and Terrans when you are interested in how he does against Zergs? But that's entirely my point! You need to take other matchups into account if you want to talk about overall skills. Everyone who has the tip top ELO is amazing at TvZ. If I take all the players who are good at TvZ...this list would expand pretty far. In contrast, very few Zergs are good at ZvT. And the best ZvT in the world doesn't even compare well to the top 6 TvZ in the world by win percent. | ||
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Danglars
United States12133 Posts
The optimal minimum sample size is 20. Above 20, the n value does not relevantly contribute over all (n-1) to the statistics. I'm sure you remember from your AP stats class and college. The statistics presented in the OP are greater than 20 sample sizes and thus are relevant. Edit 2: Maybe presenting that article wasn't such a good idea as it only confuses people more. Let me try to explain this in easier terms to understand. So how about this...http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_deviation lol Statistics is very dependent on standard deviations which accounts for your confidence interval. Standard deviation (SI) uses an (N-1) factor, which contributes less and less as N gets larger. at 20 or above, N-1 is seen as negligible in mathematics terms. I actually use 20 or greater in my research and published works as well... it's quite well known. Find it hard to believe that a guy dealing with a sample size of 50 does not calculate confidence intervals to support his results. It's easy to wave your hands at sample sizes above 20, just as it's easy for the other guy to cite small micro mistakes trending towards deviations in that % over a large number of games. We want to be sure we have a grasp on how representative these games are of his true ZvT winrate before we start spouting the % difference between him and next highest (It *could* be as high as an X difference or as low as a Y difference.) (See NesTea's 91 games compared to DRG's 50. Comparing MMA's 26 games against someone with 50. And we're talking across patches, metagame shifts .. the free advantages that one race gets as the others figure out what works against them, and vice versa on disadvantages. The more games, the less individual patches wave of effects and the sometimes-corresponding metagame shifts afterwards) And I'm not disagreeing with the proposition that DRG is a VERY good player EVEN in his weakest matchup. | ||
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chroniX
517 Posts
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Zarahtra
Iceland4053 Posts
Then we add into the mix that ZvT and PvT are just stupidly balanced, where early-midgame is terran favoured, late game is zerg/protoss favoured and late late late game is terran favoured. This means you spend most your time in terran favoured MU. This also means that terran can have a more concise strategy formed, compared to especially zerg, which kind of has to go: "Ok I want to get into lategame with atleast 3 base, deny his 3rd as long as possible, don't loose to much in the midgame and we'll see how the rest goes", compared to terran's: "ok I'll start with a 2 rax aggression, behind it I go expo, heavy upgrades and drop with 1-1". Kind of feel this is one of the reasons Stephano's style goes so well, it takes back a lot of control, has a concise gameplay no matter what aswell as just being pretty darn strong in current metagame. | ||
Poopi
France12911 Posts
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neoghaleon55
United States7435 Posts
I will name you 3 Zergs in the top 50 that's terrible with ZvT Zenio: 24-32 (42.86%) BboongBboong: 17-18 (48.57%) Lucky: 16-21 (43.24%) (forGG only played 8 TvZ games, maybe it's not a good idea to count him) | ||
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Noocta
France12578 Posts
There's so many good Terran in Korea, each one of them don't really play TvZ the same way ( Gumiho/MVP/MMA/Jjakji, they all play a different style in that matchup ) so it's hard to be prepared against everything. ZvP allow this kind of universal build that put you in a good spot for midgame ( 3hatch before gas against FFE with early roach warren/evo chamber ). ZvT don't have that. The match up is way harder to predict, resulting in lower pourcentage win from top Zerg. | ||
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IgnE
United States7681 Posts
On March 16 2012 17:20 Danglars wrote: Find it hard to believe that a guy dealing with a sample size of 50 does not calculate confidence intervals to support his results. It's easy to wave your hands at sample sizes above 20, just as it's easy for the other guy to cite small micro mistakes trending towards deviations in that % over a large number of games. We want to be sure we have a grasp on how representative these games are of his true ZvT winrate before we start spouting the % difference between him and next highest (It *could* be as high as an X difference or as low as a Y difference.) (See NesTea's 91 games compared to DRG's 50. Comparing MMA's 26 games against someone with 50. And we're talking across patches, metagame shifts .. the free advantages that one race gets as the others figure out what works against them, and vice versa on disadvantages. The more games, the less individual patches wave of effects and the sometimes-corresponding metagame shifts afterwards) And I'm not disagreeing with the proposition that DRG is a VERY good player EVEN in his weakest matchup. How is the OP going to say that his small sample sizes are fine, citing some basic statistics math, and then NOT calculate the confidence intervals for all of these samples, WHILE basing his sweeping conclusions on differences in percent win by as little as 67% compared to 64%. You are telling me that the confidence interval on a 20 game sample doesn't matter? All these bro-stats threads just fuel pointless discussions that go on for pages without actually arriving at any useful, empirically-backed conclusions. Not to mention that most of these statistics include a majority of games from old patches where ghost play by the likes of mvp and others was not really figured out by zergs. My conclusion is that there just aren't that many zergs in korea who are good enough to consistently beat the best terran players in korea to have a great win percentage in zvt, disregarding race. It's hard to have a good win percentage when you aren't even good enough to break into Code A. But there are a lot of Koreans who are really good that also happen to have been playing terran at the highest levels since the game's release. | ||
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neoghaleon55
United States7435 Posts
On March 16 2012 18:21 IgnE wrote: + Show Spoiler + On March 16 2012 17:20 Danglars wrote: Find it hard to believe that a guy dealing with a sample size of 50 does not calculate confidence intervals to support his results. It's easy to wave your hands at sample sizes above 20, just as it's easy for the other guy to cite small micro mistakes trending towards deviations in that % over a large number of games. We want to be sure we have a grasp on how representative these games are of his true ZvT winrate before we start spouting the % difference between him and next highest (It *could* be as high as an X difference or as low as a Y difference.) (See NesTea's 91 games compared to DRG's 50. Comparing MMA's 26 games against someone with 50. And we're talking across patches, metagame shifts .. the free advantages that one race gets as the others figure out what works against them, and vice versa on disadvantages. The more games, the less individual patches wave of effects and the sometimes-corresponding metagame shifts afterwards) And I'm not disagreeing with the proposition that DRG is a VERY good player EVEN in his weakest matchup. How is the OP going to say that his small sample sizes are fine, citing some basic statistics math, and then NOT calculate the confidence intervals for all of these samples, WHILE basing his sweeping conclusions on differences in percent win by as little as 67% compared to 64%. You are telling me that the confidence interval on a 20 game sample doesn't matter? All these bro-stats threads just fuel pointless discussions that go on for pages without actually arriving at any useful, empirically-backed conclusions. Not to mention that most of these statistics include a majority of games from old patches where ghost play by the likes of mvp and others was not really figured out by zergs. My conclusion is that there just aren't that many zergs in korea who are good enough to consistently beat the best terran players in korea to have a great win percentage in zvt, disregarding race. It's hard to have a good win percentage when you aren't even good enough to break into Code A. But there are a lot of Koreans who are really good that also happen to have been playing terran at the highest levels since the game's release. DRG's 64% is an outlier The same way MMA's 80% is an outlier. It's better to look at mean or median, which is around 60% for Zergs and 66% for Terrans. Nobody has any idea how much the ghost patch will affect the state of the game at the top levels. There is currently no data that supports that things will change very much. We will have to wait and see. | ||
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Fubi
2228 Posts
On March 16 2012 16:57 neoghaleon55 wrote: It's definitely more than 5%...I just rounded down. Maybe I should write this again, since people are not even reading the numbers. Way to ignore the MAIN point in that post; here let me spell it out for you: Why are you saying that Statistics is very dependent on standard deviations when you didn't even include ANY standard deviation calculations in your analysis? Cool, it's more than 5% cuz you rounded it down, so how do you know that this number isn't within margin of error? | ||
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ChiXoo
Germany37 Posts
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Elem
Sweden4717 Posts
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Big J
Austria16289 Posts
-) 64% is still pretty good -) The TLPD winrates of Korea show Terran constantly dominating Zerg, so it's really no surprise that the best TvZ players have achieved better stats than the best ZvT players -) stats are achieved over a longer periode of time; as Terran got a lot of nerfs, it's safe to assume that Terran was (slightly) stronger at some times, which are included in the stats; so the question is, if this stays true with the current patches, or if it balances out which will lead to more even stats in the future -) DRG was the Terran killer for a short period of time, but I think Terrans adapted to his (counter heavy) style. | ||
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babysimba
10466 Posts
-Terrans dictate the pace of the match-up. With that many viable styles for terran to play this match-up, it takes experience for a zerg to be able to deal with all the stuffs. -Cheese or just simply non-committal aggression of a terran can just kill one outright if not handled properly. And the most important reason that's most relevant to a zerg of DRG's calibre -Lack of reactive aggressive builds for zerg to punish greedy terrans. Any decent korean terrans can compete with DRG if they get away with 3ocs+fast double ups. DRG uses so many blind all-ins to keep opponents honest. Blind all-ins are calculated risks. Even if you are good at knowing when to use them, 60+% seems a good enough win rate. In short, zerg is more likely to die to lesser terrans than it is for terrans against lesser zergs. | ||
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neoghaleon55
United States7435 Posts
On March 16 2012 18:43 babysimba wrote: Few reasons why: -Terrans dictate the pace of the match-up. With that many viable styles for terran to play this match-up, it takes experience for a zerg to be able to deal with all the stuffs. -Cheese or just simply non-committal aggression of a terran can just kill one outright if not handled properly. And the most important reason that's most relevant to a zerg of DRG's calibre -Lack of reactive aggressive builds for zerg to punish greedy terrans. Any decent korean terrans can compete with DRG if they get away with 3ocs+fast double ups. DRG uses so many blind all-ins to keep opponents honest. Blind all-ins are calculated risks. Even if you are good at knowing when to use them, 60+% seems a good enough win rate. In short, zerg is more likely to die to lesser terrans than it is for terrans against lesser zergs. Nooo! I cannot accept this! The truth is too much!  | ||
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zefreak
United States2731 Posts
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ThomasHobbes
United States197 Posts
On March 16 2012 18:21 IgnE wrote: How is the OP going to say that his small sample sizes are fine, citing some basic statistics math, and then NOT calculate the confidence intervals for all of these samples, WHILE basing his sweeping conclusions on differences in percent win by as little as 67% compared to 64%. You are telling me that the confidence interval on a 20 game sample doesn't matter? All these bro-stats threads just fuel pointless discussions that go on for pages without actually arriving at any useful, empirically-backed conclusions. Not to mention that most of these statistics include a majority of games from old patches where ghost play by the likes of mvp and others was not really figured out by zergs. My conclusion is that there just aren't that many zergs in korea who are good enough to consistently beat the best terran players in korea to have a great win percentage in zvt, disregarding race. It's hard to have a good win percentage when you aren't even good enough to break into Code A. But there are a lot of Koreans who are really good that also happen to have been playing terran at the highest levels since the game's release. Looking at actual Code A matches, this doesn't seem to be the case. Terran have early game aggression, cheese, and allins which are significantly stronger than comparable zerg examples. These games continue to win games at a Code A and Code S level (Two proxy-2 raxes as of game 3 of Code A tonight), and that's the major difference between the two races. Zerg is fragile, Terran is safe, when Zerg makes mistakes they lose, when Terrans make mistakes they can recover. If we look at the history of the game, Zerg have consistently been split between Code A regulars and Code S superstars. The race is unforgiving, most Zergs cannot compete on a regular basis with the more varied and safe Terran. The few who can play consistently without making any mistakes regularly win the titles because of their extraordinary personal skill, but even then, as we see, the best Zerg in the ZvT match-up is still behind the top 6 Terrans. | ||
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aebriol
Norway2066 Posts
It would be relevant to look maybe 2-3 months back, but ... patches etc, will really mess with the statistics. ZvT was damn near impossible for Z for a while here and there - not really the case right now. | ||
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Aunvilgod
2653 Posts
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