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On March 16 2012 13:10 NoctemSC wrote:
Hey buddy,
I agree with you on the discrepancy difference between TvZ and ZvT and I'll explain my reason.
First off, never compare MMA to anyone else. His TvZ is ridiculous and he is not a good example.
Terran know they are at a disadvantage vs Zerg late game. Because of this Terran are forced to all in.
Zerg are weak vs all in play at all levels because they want to go macro heavy, get that fast expand etc.
What Terran are doing is simply exploiting the greedy zerg mentality.
It would be easy for Zerg to adapt to a slightly less greedy build order and defend as I've seen it done quite well.
It doesn't come down to Terran being stronger, it comes down to Terran exploiting a self made weakness that many greedy zergs have set up.
You can't expect to have the advantage late AND early game. That would be unrealistic.
As a Turtle Terran I'd gladly trade my aggressive early game for a powerful late game.
The fact is that Zerg have awesome early game aggression as well, provided they know what they're doing. Simply look at Leeknock.
And if you're more passive and the Terran decides to be greedy then you also lose, that's how the game works. The reason Zerg has an advantage late-game is because they play for it and Terrans don't, if they play very defensively and the Terran takes advantage of that by playing super greedy he will win.
The numbers are skewed because of the past when Terran was stronger and Zerg much weaker. And MMA is sick good. That's basically it.
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Well these are kinda cool stats yet they mean absolutely nothing except to serve the purpose of admiration and emphasize "Wow that guy is soo good"
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On March 16 2012 11:20 Liquid`Jinro wrote:
How the fuck is 64% not good?
Maybe you should fucking read the whole thing.
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On March 16 2012 13:10 NoctemSC wrote:
Hey buddy,
I agree with you on the discrepancy difference between TvZ and ZvT and I'll explain my reason.
First off, never compare MMA to anyone else. His TvZ is ridiculous and he is not a good example.
Terran know they are at a disadvantage vs Zerg late game. Because of this Terran are forced to all in.
Zerg are weak vs all in play at all levels because they want to go macro heavy, get that fast expand etc.
What Terran are doing is simply exploiting the greedy zerg mentality.
It would be easy for Zerg to adapt to a slightly less greedy build order and defend as I've seen it done quite well.
It doesn't come down to Terran being stronger, it comes down to Terran exploiting a self made weakness that many greedy zergs have set up.
You can't expect to have the advantage late AND early game. That would be unrealistic.
As a Turtle Terran I'd gladly trade my aggressive early game for a powerful late game.
The fact is that Zerg have awesome early game aggression as well, provided they know what they're doing. Simply look at Leeknock.
Wait what. I see terran winning without all inning in kr tvz all the time. You make it sound like tvz is now 2 base all ins when it's not even close lol, most terrans take a fast third if anything. Hell most tvz's I watch in general terran takes a fast third, and guess what? Terran still wins a lot of the time (NO i'm not saying they are imbalanced or anything so don't take that from this comment as I don't get terran is op or anything)
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This is why I don't like tlpd, it lets people who think they understand stats draw huge conclusions from them without giving proper assumptions. Yes the numbers you posted are different. What does that actually mean? Maybe something important, but you can't simply look at two numbers and say "Hey, these are differen't! terran is imba!" More analysis is needed.
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DRG vT: 32-18 64.00%
Nestea vT: 52-39 57.14%
Leenock vT: 62-40 60.78%
July vT: 29-19 60.42%
Curious vT: 25-19 56.82%
Symbol vT: 13-8 61.90%
Clearly DRG's ZvT outclasses everyone by at least 3-5%, DongRaeGu is indeed the best ZvT player in the world....statistic wise.
So...what about TvZ
Top 6 Terrans by ELO using TLPD
MMA vZ: 21-5 80.77%
MVP vZ: 43-21 67.19%
aLive vZ: 28-14 66.67%
MKP vZ: 39-21 65.00%
Taeja vZ: 58-29 66.67%
Gumiho vZ: 30-15 66.67%
Shows 4/6 zergs with 60%+ in ZvT states only 1 of them is good against terran. what?
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anything above 50% in brood war was fucking great iirc. code s players really are code s for a reason 
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On March 16 2012 13:28 Lunaro wrote:Show nested quote +
DRG vT: 32-18 64.00%
Nestea vT: 52-39 57.14%
Leenock vT: 62-40 60.78%
July vT: 29-19 60.42%
Curious vT: 25-19 56.82%
Symbol vT: 13-8 61.90%
Clearly DRG's ZvT outclasses everyone by at least 3-5%, DongRaeGu is indeed the best ZvT player in the world....statistic wise.
So...what about TvZ
Top 6 Terrans by ELO using TLPD
MMA vZ: 21-5 80.77%
MVP vZ: 43-21 67.19%
aLive vZ: 28-14 66.67%
MKP vZ: 39-21 65.00%
Taeja vZ: 58-29 66.67%
Gumiho vZ: 30-15 66.67%
Shows 4/6 zergs with 60%+ in ZvT states only 1 of them is good against terran. what?
He said DRG is the best at ZvT based on the win percentages. Which is true. How is that the same as saying only one of those zergs is good against terran?
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I come to the conclusion that....unless you're DRG, nobody's really any good at ZvT.
what?
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to be fair zerg vs T was a lot more imba back in the day, so depending on how far these stats extend, they could already be too outdated.
i'd like to see some from like the last patch til now (so before the ghost nerf to get a good sample size, + only really MVP abused it HARDCORE in gsl no? i may be hugely wrong)
for the record i do feel like the stats represent how i feel about the MU or at least terran stability compared to zerg stability and terran all-in power compared to zerg all-in power
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On March 16 2012 12:58 SafeAsCheese wrote:
After ghost changes, MMA is going to lose more.
LOL somebody doesn't watch MMA TvZ games. If you skimmed through a couple of his games, you'll see that MMA 99% of the time does not use Ghosts even against a ling-broodlord-infestor composition. A Ghost change will have 0 impact on a player that has never used Ghosts in the past, and has always stuck with mass drops and vikings. Even Idra in his IEM casting of Zenio vs MMA said in the beginning that MMA never uses Ghosts and just out multitasks his opponents lategame.
At least try to do some research before making stupid statements like these...
On topic, this is why I hate using TLPD. If you base your 'statistics' on TLPD, you disregard changes to metagames, slumps, etc.. Hell, TLPD claims that Leenock is a beast at ZvP (International stats - 73.53% win loss) when everybody kind of knows that it's his worst matchup.
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I like how you use only show DRG's korean statistics to 'prove' his weakest matchup is ZvT.
DongRaeGu (International)
All 105-51 (67.31%)
vT 40-19 67.80%
vZ 24-12 66.67%
vP 41-20 67.21%
MMA (International)
All 117-46 (71.78%)
vT 41-43 64.06%
vZ 52-17 75.36%
vP 24-6 80.00%
Sample size is way too small and the vast majority of the games are outdated/irrelevant.
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On March 16 2012 13:42 lysergic wrote:
I like how you use only show DRG's korean statistics to 'prove' his weakest matchup is ZvT.
DongRaeGu (International)
All 105-51 (67.31%)
vT 40-19 67.80%
vZ 24-12 66.67%
vP 41-20 67.21%
MMA (International)
All 117-46 (71.78%)
vT 41-43 64.06%
vZ 52-17 75.36%
vP 24-6 80.00%
Sample size is way too small and the vast majority of the games are outdated/irrelevant.
Well let's be honest here, foreign terran's aren't that great compared to korean terran's. When you compare the best zerg in the world, you don't want to compare him to the foreign terrans he plays, you want it to be against players of his caliber or better.
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In korea terrans are in general better than z and p. Naturally you win more against worse opponents than against better opponents. Its not that complicated.
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On March 16 2012 13:19 Skwid1g wrote:Show nested quote +On March 16 2012 13:10 NoctemSC wrote:
Hey buddy,
I agree with you on the discrepancy difference between TvZ and ZvT and I'll explain my reason.
First off, never compare MMA to anyone else. His TvZ is ridiculous and he is not a good example.
Terran know they are at a disadvantage vs Zerg late game. Because of this Terran are forced to all in.
Zerg are weak vs all in play at all levels because they want to go macro heavy, get that fast expand etc.
What Terran are doing is simply exploiting the greedy zerg mentality.
It would be easy for Zerg to adapt to a slightly less greedy build order and defend as I've seen it done quite well.
It doesn't come down to Terran being stronger, it comes down to Terran exploiting a self made weakness that many greedy zergs have set up.
You can't expect to have the advantage late AND early game. That would be unrealistic.
As a Turtle Terran I'd gladly trade my aggressive early game for a powerful late game.
The fact is that Zerg have awesome early game aggression as well, provided they know what they're doing. Simply look at Leeknock. And if you're more passive and the Terran decides to be greedy then you also lose, that's how the game works. The reason Zerg has an advantage late-game is because they play for it and Terrans don't, if they play very defensively and the Terran takes advantage of that by playing super greedy he will win.
before the ghost nerf maybe.
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Threads like this is funny and juvenile. Savior was known for his amazing ZvT however statistically his best match-up was his ZvP. Bisu is a PvZ god however during his initial and short reign, PvP was his best match-up statistically.
Being a god in a match-up =/= Your best match-up
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From a logic perspective, it's difficult to glean as much as we'd like from the best of the best. The problem when comparing the highest level players is that they frequently have something they do that is MUCH better then the average player, such as MMA's multitasking or DRG's overall macro and mechanics. Why not try to look at a group of players who are supposedly much closer in "skill"? I decided to look at a group of Code A players that while still are top level players, don't typically have a personal skill far beyond what we see from other high level pros.
More interesting statistics from TLPD:
Zerg:
Lucky
vT: 16-21 (43.24%)
vZ: 7-6 (53.85%)
vP: 13-6 (68.42%)
Terious
All: 16-22 (42.11%)
vT: 8-9 (47.06%)
vZ: 1-4 (20.00%)
vP: 7-9 (43.75%)
YuGioH
All: 37-38 (49.33%)
vT: 17-20 (45.95%)
vZ: 11-12 (47.83%)
vP: 9-6 (60.00%)
July
All: 63-51 (55.26%)
vT: 29-19 (60.42%)
vZ: 7-12 (36.84%)
vP: 27-20 (57.45%)
Terran:
GanZi
All: 45-43 (51.14%)
vT: 21-23 (47.73%)
vZ: 19-8 (70.37%)
vP: 5-12 (29.41%)
Keen
All: 45-42 (51.72%)
vT: 12-18 (40.00%)
vZ: 12-9 (57.14%)
vP: 21-15 (58.33%)
Happy
All: 41-32 (56.16%)
vT: 18-21 (46.15%)
vZ: 15-3 (83.33%)
vP: 8-8 (50.00%)
MKP
1v1 Record:
All: 135-90 (60.00%)
vT: 62-50 (55.36%)
vZ: 39-21 (65.00%)
vP: 34-19 (64.15%)
Ryung
All: 67-52 (56.30%)
vT: 30-19 (61.22%)
vZ: 22-15 (59.46%)
vP: 15-18 (45.45%)
Protoss:
Ace
All: 38-52 (42.22%)
vT: 21-24 (46.67%)
vZ: 13-17 (43.33%)
vP: 4-11 (26.67%)
Alicia
All: 35-38 (47.95%)
vT: 17-21 (44.74%)
vZ: 13-10 (56.52%)
vP: 5-7 (41.67%)
Brown
All: 13-11 (54.17%)
vT: 4-5 (44.44%)
vZ: 5-0 (100.00%)
vP: 4-6 (40.00%)
Inca
All: 55-47 (53.92%)
vT: 21-17 (55.26%)
vZ: 12-22 (35.29%)
vP: 22-8 (73.33%)
JYP
All: 52-51 (50.49%)
vT: 7-26 (21.21%)
vZ: 27-15 (64.29%)
vP: 18-10 (64.29%)
Interestingly enough, the trend continues down through Code A. The "average" professional Z/P players have a hell of a hard time vT with very few even breaking 50%. On the flip side, the "average" professional T players are all well above 50%, with Happy at a simply unbelievable 83% vZ.
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Yeah, the sample size may be big enough, but the sample is still misleading if the games are over different seasons, patches, meta game shifts. The stats are from TLPD right, which means that those stats are from games over a vast amount of time. Maybe even games before the infestor buff? I am putting questions marks because I don't know if this is the case. If it is, then the sample is completely meaningless.
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This is irrelevant this pool is corrupted by previous seasons this is no indication of their current win rates.
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Once again, non of these stats have any meaning. It's been said so many times that an even ratio of wins does NOT indicate balance. This game is meant to be about the PLAYER being better, not the race. A perfect balance in win ratios would probably indicate imbalance because there's no way every player is on an even level. Sometimes you have to accept there is simply a better player. Not to mention some players have better matchups then others, and none of this data actually indicates who each race got their wins against. The top Z's may face more top terrans, but top terrans may face more mid-tier zergs.
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EPT
