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Win Rates by Race & Length of Game - Page 4

Forum Index > SC2 General
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-Duderino-
Profile Joined July 2011
United States80 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-02-05 04:11:11
February 05 2012 04:10 GMT
#61
^^ this can be said of all the races idk why you pick on terran. So I think they cancel each other out.

If toss does a blink stalker all in and terran holds then toss loses at 10 min but stays in for another 10 min because he got storm and terran can't attack. There are tons of examples of all the races essentially losing the game but sticking around for 10 min longer. So the graphh should show the averages accurately, Also techinaclly you dont lose if 11/11 rax fails or any of the other examples you provided, terran could do enough damage to transition smoothly and then lose 10min later.
The Dude abides.
ChriseC
Profile Joined December 2010
Germany440 Posts
February 05 2012 04:15 GMT
#62
On February 05 2012 13:10 -Duderino- wrote:
^^ this can be said of all the races idk why you pick on terran. So I think they cancel each other out.

If toss does a blink stalker all in and terran holds then toss loses at 10 min but stays in for another 10 min because he got storm and terran can't attack. There are tons of examples of all the races essentially losing the game but sticking around for 10 min longer. So the graphh should show the averages accurately, Also techinaclly you dont lose if 11/11 rax fails or any of the other examples you provided, terran could do enough damage to transition smoothly and then lose 10min later.


i hope u are not serious

User was warned for this post
GhostOwl
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
766 Posts
February 05 2012 04:22 GMT
#63
Put it this way. If T has really good early game and bad late game, then it actually favors T. Why? Because you'll have early game every game no matter what. Some games end before late game. Having strong early game also leads to ability to cripple your opponent so he cannot do much in late game.
dAPhREAk
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Nauru12397 Posts
February 05 2012 04:31 GMT
#64
very interesting. makes terran look like the cheese race. go for the long game zergs~!

asked for comment, idra stated "no fucking kidding terran is op at the beginning; zerg cant scout"
erazerr
Profile Joined March 2011
Australia86 Posts
February 05 2012 04:55 GMT
#65
this is excellent! Would you or anyone else please continue these kind of statistics similar to the monthly TLPD win rates for international and Korea ? I understand if you wouldn't want to because that sounds like too much work to ask for
NeMeSiS3
Profile Blog Joined February 2012
Canada2972 Posts
February 05 2012 05:00 GMT
#66
On February 05 2012 13:15 ChriseC wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 05 2012 13:10 -Duderino- wrote:
^^ this can be said of all the races idk why you pick on terran. So I think they cancel each other out.

If toss does a blink stalker all in and terran holds then toss loses at 10 min but stays in for another 10 min because he got storm and terran can't attack. There are tons of examples of all the races essentially losing the game but sticking around for 10 min longer. So the graphh should show the averages accurately, Also techinaclly you dont lose if 11/11 rax fails or any of the other examples you provided, terran could do enough damage to transition smoothly and then lose 10min later.


i hope u are not serious


A more correct response is not to insinuate a facetious remark, but simply tell him why he's wrong and explain your point of view...

What he said, in a vague sense is true, where a Protoss may 7gate a zerg and not do substantial dmg but stay around praying the zerg will make a mistake because simply he is dead at that point... It imo doesn't show the averages correctly for this point, but actually skews them.
FoTG fighting!
Forbidden17
Profile Joined December 2011
666 Posts
February 05 2012 05:43 GMT
#67
On February 05 2012 14:00 NeMeSiS3 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 05 2012 13:15 ChriseC wrote:
On February 05 2012 13:10 -Duderino- wrote:
^^ this can be said of all the races idk why you pick on terran. So I think they cancel each other out.

If toss does a blink stalker all in and terran holds then toss loses at 10 min but stays in for another 10 min because he got storm and terran can't attack. There are tons of examples of all the races essentially losing the game but sticking around for 10 min longer. So the graphh should show the averages accurately, Also techinaclly you dont lose if 11/11 rax fails or any of the other examples you provided, terran could do enough damage to transition smoothly and then lose 10min later.


i hope u are not serious


A more correct response is not to insinuate a facetious remark, but simply tell him why he's wrong and explain your point of view...

What he said, in a vague sense is true, where a Protoss may 7gate a zerg and not do substantial dmg but stay around praying the zerg will make a mistake because simply he is dead at that point... It imo doesn't show the averages correctly for this point, but actually skews them.

That's why you need a large sample size to eliminate such games...

By the same argument say a Zerg 6 pools and manages to kill every single Terran unit and the Terran flies buildings and starts bm'ing while the Zerg takes the entire map and does nothing and lets the game drag on for 3 hours. This happens once in awhile, but is eliminated in the total picture by simply having a large enough sample size.

A 4gate could fail and the toss could be completely screwed but manages to stick around for another 10mins. Yes, this could happen, but how often? Not enough to deter the general statistics imo.
faulty
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
Canada204 Posts
February 05 2012 05:51 GMT
#68
i would LOVE to see the monthly TLPD winrate graph include something like OP.
I've always wondered if it was just me that thinks TvP is on a clock for terrans. Especially in lower leagues.
"More gg, more skill" - White-Ra
Orracle
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
United States314 Posts
February 05 2012 06:40 GMT
#69
On February 05 2012 10:48 emc wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 05 2012 10:18 Orracle wrote:
On February 05 2012 08:19 magnaflow wrote:
Is it possible to do this with all the playhem replays? 35k is a substantial number


I feel while a larger sample size is needed, you can't really include half these daily games.

You run into situations of bronze vs grandmasters, diamonds vs platinums, etc.

I would like to see strictly GSL/GSTL stats. These would reflect stats of the best players in the world playing.



Then we wouldn't have a big enough sample size and one race winning over another could skew results in favor of that race just by one game alone. I don't care if we see bronze vs grandmasters, I think the larger the sample size the better. Of course out of those 31.5k games it would be nice to see the Top 8 only analyzed, or even the just the 2nd and 3rd rounders and above because most 1st rounders who lose will be very bad players.


That is a good suggestion actually. Incorporate the top 8, 16, etc depending on tournament size. Would provide a halfway decent sample size, and at least decent skill level players.
Corsica
Profile Joined February 2011
Ukraine1854 Posts
February 05 2012 10:41 GMT
#70
TvT is so short because people know how fckin long it would be so they just cheese each other xD
Xapti
Profile Joined April 2010
Canada2473 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-02-05 11:16:26
February 05 2012 10:57 GMT
#71
It would be nice to get more stats like this.
Thing is I don't know if anyone's mentioned this yet, but it's hard to accurately get this information, because replay length is not always the same as "time to win". For instance, once a major winning game move was done at 4 or 10 minutes into the game, the game may go on for another 10 minutes before the other player either surrenders or gets destroyed. One could maybe also consider on the other hand the rare(?) case(s) of premature "GG"s (surrender).

edit: I see this is being discussed.

On February 05 2012 10:23 Roxy wrote:
I dont find these enharantly useful yet.
Edit: nvm, thanks oracle
http://i.imgur.com/8Wfcc.png

[image loading]
Thanks, as I suspected, this information is a lot more useful than the overview one, which is kinda meaningless aside from strategies that apply to both match-ups.

It will be interesting to see with larger sample size and finer/more levels of game durations what —if anything— changes.

Oh also, I'm not sure if it provides useful information (I think it does?), but what about weighing the win-rate values based on the number of games played, essentially multiplying the win-rate % by the % of games at that duration.
That way, one could see the durations where players win most of their games for each matchups. In addition, I believe it would provide overall win-rate information if you took the "integral" (volume) of the graph (albeit very rough information, but still would probably give a visual indicator if X race was favored overall in all the match-ups or not).

Alternatively, but [in my opinion] much more confusing, a <number of games> vs <game duration> graph could be superimposed with the win-rate vs duration graph to get a similar effect.
"Then he told me to tell you that he wouldn't piss on you if you were on fire" — "Well, you tell him that I said that I wouldn't piss on him if he was on Jeopardy!"
Talack
Profile Joined September 2010
Canada2742 Posts
February 05 2012 11:00 GMT
#72
20% drop in win rate after 20 minutes for terran, kind of what everyone has been saying. Would prefer to see a much larger sample size (especially since providence wasn't exactly the best sample to honestly).

And including mirror matches is redundant IMO
shuurai
Profile Joined December 2011
75 Posts
February 05 2012 19:05 GMT
#73
The authority of this particular data set is debatable, but the evaluation format is brilliant! So much more informative than mere winrates!
Koreans got Seoul
Phays
Profile Joined January 2012
Sweden162 Posts
February 05 2012 19:27 GMT
#74
I guess you could use games of all recent tournaments?
solidbebe
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
Netherlands4921 Posts
February 05 2012 19:36 GMT
#75
I looove stats in neat graphs OH YESSS!!!
That's the 2nd time in a week I've seen someone sig a quote from this GD and I have never witnessed a sig quote happen in my TL history ever before. -Najda
Neelia
Profile Joined September 2010
Germany599 Posts
February 05 2012 20:03 GMT
#76
On February 05 2012 08:11 skeldark wrote:
ps: the overall in the graph is total misleading


^ This


And I'd love if the guy with the 30k playhem replays could do a similar analysis
gurrpp
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States437 Posts
February 05 2012 20:09 GMT
#77
Anyone interested in going through GSL vods and recording game lengths manually?
hot fuh days
Roxy
Profile Joined November 2010
Canada753 Posts
February 05 2012 20:09 GMT
#78
On February 06 2012 05:09 gurrpp wrote:
Anyone interested in going through GSL vods and recording game lengths manually?



how many internets are you willing to pay?
http://sc2ranks.com/us/941824/Roxy - Masters Protoss: "Respect my authoritai"
gurrpp
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States437 Posts
February 05 2012 20:20 GMT
#79
On February 06 2012 05:09 Roxy wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 06 2012 05:09 gurrpp wrote:
Anyone interested in going through GSL vods and recording game lengths manually?



how many internets are you willing to pay?


You can have all the internets. But in all seriousness I'm really curious about game length/win rate stats of top korean players, since they play a lot tighter early game. It could be from any korean tournament with good players, but replays are so hard to come by and GSL has the possibly the largest collection of Korean vods. It wouldn't take a group of people too long to go through a couple months worth of games, since you just need to record the game length and result. It'd be really tedious, and I don't have a GSL subscription anymore.
hot fuh days
CounterOrder
Profile Joined August 2010
Canada457 Posts
February 05 2012 20:25 GMT
#80
On February 05 2012 19:41 Corsica wrote:
TvT is so short because people know how fckin long it would be so they just cheese each other xD


What? TvT is the longest match-up. Should pay more attention.
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