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TLPD Winrate Charts: January - Page 14

Forum Index > SC2 General
Post a Reply
Prev 1 12 13 14 15 16 23 Next All
Sylailene
Profile Joined February 2011
91 Posts
February 02 2012 22:11 GMT
#261
My protoss heart shrunk reading international, but I still beloved in us, Aiur fighting !
Utinni
Profile Joined November 2010
Canada1196 Posts
February 02 2012 22:14 GMT
#262
On February 03 2012 07:11 Sylailene wrote:
My protoss heart shrunk reading international, but I still beloved in us, Aiur fighting !

we need you to rise brother!


FOR AIUR!!!
“... you don’t have to be Sun freakin Tzu to know that real fighting isn’t about killing or even hurting the other guy, it’s about scaring him enough to call it a day.” - Max Brooks: World War Z
emc
Profile Joined September 2010
United States3088 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-02-02 22:19:14
February 02 2012 22:17 GMT
#263
On February 03 2012 07:11 Oerbaa wrote:
Zerg nerf inc, if not ill be surprised :O


this has nothing to do with balance, it's simply win rates.

When will people understand that tournaments are random and have nothing to do with balance? There are a ton of factors such as map pool, a players physical and mental condition as well as the metagame and strategies used.

These win rates also have nothing to do with your ladder experiences because 99% of the people here aren't playing in tournaments that are reflected on the TLPD.

Zergs win rate in the first two GSL seasons were averaged out to 50% because of Fruit dealer and Nestea winning GSL but all other zergs were getting stomped. This doesn't show balance, it again only shows us which race is winning or more like which player is winning.
Eliwood5837
Profile Joined July 2011
245 Posts
February 02 2012 22:18 GMT
#264
O.O the ZvP bar thats crazt
Liquid`HerO Fighting! | Liquid`TaeJa Fighting!
Razuik
Profile Joined October 2010
United States409 Posts
February 02 2012 22:21 GMT
#265
With Korea having the most ongoing league, it's hard to care about these zany international win rates.
superstartran
Profile Joined March 2010
United States4013 Posts
February 02 2012 22:25 GMT
#266
On February 03 2012 04:06 Zarent wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 03 2012 03:11 deathly rat wrote:
On February 03 2012 02:27 Big J wrote:
On February 03 2012 02:10 Roxy wrote:
What do you guys think is more of a problem in ZvP?

Mutas
or Brood lord / Infestor?

how bad do you think it would be if they got rid of the stupidest ability in the game: archon toilet?


The "problem" is 3hatch. Zerg at 10mins right now always has more workers, more bases and the better open field composition in all the games that last longer than 12min and don't include a huge trade.
From there on it's usually uphill for P, no matter what the composition is.


The fast 3 hatch is a meta game response to forge first expand. P wants to play very greedy so makes no units, but Z cannot break the front directly, so the only option is to take 3 fast bases. If it were the other way around and it were viable for Z to wall off and rely on static defense the P could do exactly the same thing.

Also, any game in which supplies are equal is a game that Z is losing, so your argument about better composition is wrong.


A FFE is the only reliable way of playing the matchup. The various sentry based gateway expands are all not viable for various reasons that has been discussed before by me and a thousand other players.

Anyway, the core issue is that fast 3 hatch is not punishable by Protoss except by VERY specific builds (+1 Zealot/Void comes to mind) and these -are- being figured out gradually, just as Stargate or DT timings were figured out before. If a Zerg gets up his ridiculously fast third without Protoss dealing damage, its essentially over.

However, Protoss also cannot go -too- all in since Zerg can arbitrarily also bust the front with a roach/ling all-in.

The core issue of the matchup is a combination of the following:
Fast 3rd
Mutas
Broodlord/Infestor

This can be put more simply by one big issue though. Protoss is -always- working on a timer for the entire game. We HAVE to be aggressive on the fast third and delay or kill it off, we HAVE to have blink / cannons / HT up by the time mutas come out, and we HAVE to have either a 200/200 mass of Blink Stalkers or Mothership/Archon by the time Broodlord/Infestor comes out. There simply aren't other options besides these.

Sure, a P player can get funky and throw in a warp prism and DTs or whatever. But there's no legitimate way for Protoss to actually be -ahead- in the macro game and dictate the flow of the game (besides all-ins).




You forgot to point out that if a P tries to play too greedy and take a 3rd too fast the Z maxes out on Roaches 12/13 minutes into the game and A-Moves you to death with 0 skill involved.
ticklishmusic
Profile Blog Joined August 2011
United States15977 Posts
February 02 2012 22:31 GMT
#267
Lol, and Idra says ZvP is unfair. The warriors of Aiur are sad zealots again this month. :/

These graphs are great, but I don't really like the scales. It makes the difference look a lot worse than it really is
(╯°□°)╯︵ ┻━┻
emc
Profile Joined September 2010
United States3088 Posts
February 02 2012 22:32 GMT
#268
On February 03 2012 07:25 superstartran wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 03 2012 04:06 Zarent wrote:
On February 03 2012 03:11 deathly rat wrote:
On February 03 2012 02:27 Big J wrote:
On February 03 2012 02:10 Roxy wrote:
What do you guys think is more of a problem in ZvP?

Mutas
or Brood lord / Infestor?

how bad do you think it would be if they got rid of the stupidest ability in the game: archon toilet?


The "problem" is 3hatch. Zerg at 10mins right now always has more workers, more bases and the better open field composition in all the games that last longer than 12min and don't include a huge trade.
From there on it's usually uphill for P, no matter what the composition is.


The fast 3 hatch is a meta game response to forge first expand. P wants to play very greedy so makes no units, but Z cannot break the front directly, so the only option is to take 3 fast bases. If it were the other way around and it were viable for Z to wall off and rely on static defense the P could do exactly the same thing.

Also, any game in which supplies are equal is a game that Z is losing, so your argument about better composition is wrong.


A FFE is the only reliable way of playing the matchup. The various sentry based gateway expands are all not viable for various reasons that has been discussed before by me and a thousand other players.

Anyway, the core issue is that fast 3 hatch is not punishable by Protoss except by VERY specific builds (+1 Zealot/Void comes to mind) and these -are- being figured out gradually, just as Stargate or DT timings were figured out before. If a Zerg gets up his ridiculously fast third without Protoss dealing damage, its essentially over.

However, Protoss also cannot go -too- all in since Zerg can arbitrarily also bust the front with a roach/ling all-in.

The core issue of the matchup is a combination of the following:
Fast 3rd
Mutas
Broodlord/Infestor

This can be put more simply by one big issue though. Protoss is -always- working on a timer for the entire game. We HAVE to be aggressive on the fast third and delay or kill it off, we HAVE to have blink / cannons / HT up by the time mutas come out, and we HAVE to have either a 200/200 mass of Blink Stalkers or Mothership/Archon by the time Broodlord/Infestor comes out. There simply aren't other options besides these.

Sure, a P player can get funky and throw in a warp prism and DTs or whatever. But there's no legitimate way for Protoss to actually be -ahead- in the macro game and dictate the flow of the game (besides all-ins).




You forgot to point out that if a P tries to play too greedy and take a 3rd too fast the Z maxes out on Roaches 12/13 minutes into the game and A-Moves you to death with 0 skill involved.


0 skill? gtfo out of here kid, this isn't a balance thread. Besides if a toss doesn't have sentries by the time he gets his 3rd and can't forcefield properly then he deserves to lose.
moocow2009
Profile Joined October 2011
77 Posts
February 02 2012 22:36 GMT
#269
On February 03 2012 07:17 emc wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 03 2012 07:11 Oerbaa wrote:
Zerg nerf inc, if not ill be surprised :O


this has nothing to do with balance, it's simply win rates.

When will people understand that tournaments are random and have nothing to do with balance? There are a ton of factors such as map pool, a players physical and mental condition as well as the metagame and strategies used.

These win rates also have nothing to do with your ladder experiences because 99% of the people here aren't playing in tournaments that are reflected on the TLPD.

Zergs win rate in the first two GSL seasons were averaged out to 50% because of Fruit dealer and Nestea winning GSL but all other zergs were getting stomped. This doesn't show balance, it again only shows us which race is winning or more like which player is winning.


While it's true that the results of an individual tournament are affected by a variety of random factors, the sample size here is large enough to make the effect those have on the data relatively small. For every game that a zerg wins because the protoss was tired, a protoss wins because the zerg was tired.

The data here may not correspond directly to people laddering, but you can't just dismiss it either. If people found a really good new terran strategy, it will have a similar effect on protoss and terran in gold league as in a pro tournament.

I don't see what you mean about individual players. This now covers a total of 27000 international games played -- even if 10 players of a given were to win all of their games, that wouldn't be enough to make a significant difference.

That said, you're completely correct that this is probably more the result of the metagame and map pools than overall balance. I just don't think you should dismiss this so quickly.

ChaosTerran
Profile Joined August 2011
Austria844 Posts
February 02 2012 22:38 GMT
#270
For all the people who say that the stats aren't accurate. I double checked last month and they were accurate. And now I checked 30 pages and I already saw the same trend as seen in the graphs, so I figured I won't waste anymore time with that. You can trust the guy who's making these graphs, and i say that as a terran player, we are the one's usually having the highest win ratio in these graphs (in other words being overpowered). So no bias here either.
shabby
Profile Joined March 2010
Norway6402 Posts
February 02 2012 22:40 GMT
#271
Wow, zerg so dominant in ZvP. What was that, Idra?
Jaedong, Gumibear, Leenock, Byun
Apollo_Shards
Profile Joined February 2011
1210 Posts
February 02 2012 22:41 GMT
#272
Wow Mutas v P are really good. I wish protoss would just get balanced
Jaedong, sOs, avilo, MaSa, Oprah
Flamingo777
Profile Joined October 2010
United States1190 Posts
February 02 2012 22:44 GMT
#273
Lol, I can definitely see when the 1-1-1 build was popular! xD
1st_Panzer_Div.
Profile Joined November 2010
United States621 Posts
February 02 2012 23:00 GMT
#274
How much would a phoenix buff (vs light, perhaps vs light air to air only) affect PvT?
Manager, Team RIP ZeeZ
peidongyang
Profile Joined January 2009
Canada2084 Posts
February 02 2012 23:00 GMT
#275
I honestly just blame the map pool for zvp...
the throws never bothered me anyway
bundo
Profile Joined February 2011
Canada113 Posts
February 02 2012 23:01 GMT
#276
MUTAS
Tsuki.eu
Profile Joined May 2011
Portugal1049 Posts
February 02 2012 23:03 GMT
#277
pretty good. thanks for the charts.
FeyFey
Profile Joined September 2010
Germany10114 Posts
February 02 2012 23:09 GMT
#278
People ! Idra means his own zerg, not everyone elses ! But toss does damn good in korea currently ^^ so i guess if you are there its way harder then here.
Funguuuuu
Profile Joined July 2011
United States198 Posts
February 02 2012 23:11 GMT
#279
ZVP is such a stupid match up, for both sides.
I changed to Terran because of it.
The night is dark and full of Terrans
zdfgucker
Profile Joined August 2011
China594 Posts
February 02 2012 23:12 GMT
#280
People will adapt. There shouldn't be any nerfs or buffs soon. Zergs complain about ZvP, tosses complain about PvZ, so it's all fine, no?
fLDm
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