EPTThe SC2 Growth Structure, and why its rotting. - Page 11
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Eknoid4
United States902 Posts
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Utinni
Canada1196 Posts
On August 25 2011 04:38 Genovi wrote: I do not know if your structure is very correct. It is a big oversimplification that often gives a quite distorted image of reality. Your conclusion is based on the premise that the structure is accurate which is why i personally take this with a grain of salt. Exactly, This is all based on personal opinion and skewed to how he believes things work. | ||
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ak1knight
United States313 Posts
On August 25 2011 04:12 Gobbles wrote: @AK1Knight, I have watched every GSL game since they lowered the price to $10 a season (sans GSL July due to lack of time) but I have never stayed up at night to watch them live. I tried that once but the hour long intro put me to sleep. You do NOT need to stay up to watch GSL, the VODS are great. Paying is the other reason why GSL is the most hardcore imo. You either stay up really late or pay 10$ a month to watch the VODs. Why would a casual player/viewer pay to watch GSL when they can watch MLG and other events for free at normal times. | ||
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SetStndbySmn
United States657 Posts
campaign mess around in bronze league look at starcraft2 official forums get referenced to teamliquid get referenced to day9 watch day9 watch gsl and foreign tournaments watch vods from people like your "tier 1 tubers" when I ran out of stuff to watch day9 is very beginner friendly as long as you're capable of critical thinking. Saying that something with the purpose to teach people a game they arn't well versed in is too hard for entry level players to understand is total nonsense. Make a post about how more youtube casters will improve the scene, fine- but making a diagram that wasn't the case for so many players is kind-of provoking argument and derailing your whole point. | ||
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Drlemur
United States153 Posts
However, I don't think anybody has yet found a casting style that will both reach the non-players and satisfy the experts. Non-players? Yes, SC2 pro-gaming gets really big when non-SC2 players enjoy watching it. 1v1 SC2 is a hard game and there will never be a 15 million player base. But that's ok, most people who watch baseball/football couldn't really play it either. Nobody is really casting to the non-player yet, although I think any of the top guys could develop a suitable style. The best mostly cast to the hardcore players, who are the current fan base. I think the OP has a good point that we should be paying attention to guys like Husky -- who gets criticized for "lack of game knowledge" but whose showmanship and enthusiasm bring people in. Day9 does a great job teaching people who are learning to play. It's a little different to cast to teach people how to understand what they are seeing (learning to watch without an intention to play). I think casting to non-players will involve more stories about the players and their histories. Probably also more high-level description of economy vs force, feints and harassing versus killing blows, tech switches like air/cloak, issues of mobility. Probably a little less of the subtle differences between a 1-gas and 2-gas 4-gate. Just IMHO, of course. | ||
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TheStonerer
Canada278 Posts
Just because you think people get to know sc2 with husky and HD, doesn't mean people only get to know sc2 like that. I would argue a lot more people fall on teamliquid.net by mistake while searching stuff, or even articles from kotaku and destructoid did good to sc2, however sensationalistic they looked. The fact that the scene keeps growing, is in total contradiction with your overview of the situation. | ||
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TERRANLOL
United States626 Posts
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Diamond
United States10796 Posts
Edit: Just to be clear, I still think the overarching idea is faulty and wrong (about SC2 dying or whatever) but I just mean the pyramid part. | ||
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RoboBob
United States798 Posts
On August 25 2011 01:57 oxxo wrote: That's an issue with your self-confidence or whatever, not the caster or casting style. The majority of football fans don't know the 'smart' stuff and you don't see them 'feeling stupid' when the announcers say 'smart' stuff. Casters should know what they are talking about. Football is a really really bad analogy. Its been a part of Western culture for decades now. Most men have played football in their lives, so they already understand the basics. Thats not true for StarCraft. Even among hardcore gamers, RTS is one of the smallest videogame genres. One reason why Football viewership is so gender lopsided is because many women (not all) don't understand/appreciate the strategical depth of the commentary. You don't want to introduce football to someone with Cris Collinsworth, instead you want Al Michaels and Michele Tafoya. | ||
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ak1knight
United States313 Posts
On August 25 2011 05:11 iCCup.Diamond wrote: Another more interesting theory is that your pyramid is the "old" model and the "new" model is your pyramid reversed, thus the stagnation of Husky and such. I can't count how many people I have talked to that never heard of SC2 until GSL, MLG, etc. Most fans that I talk to that got into sc2 from Husky or HD or w/e are people from the Beta. How do people hear about GSL without seeing/playing SC2 first? Gomtv.net isn't exactly the most mainstream website and once you get there you either have to pay 10$ to actually watch anything or happen to be there at 4am. MLG I can understand because they had a significant presence pre-SC2 with Halo, but even then the amount of people that discover SC2 through MLG is limited then to Halo/COD fans who check out the SC2 stream in their stream's down time; those guys are already "esports fans" which isn't what the OP is talking about imo. | ||
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Bobgrimly
New Zealand250 Posts
Quick math... I don't know the exact figures (tried to find with a quick search) Lets say blizzard sold 5 million copies. (saw a post saying they were close to 4.5 earlier in the year.) 100,000 watch a stream at mlg/nasl finals/dream hack,.... assume some crossover in fans and lets be generous say only half are cross overs you would be lucky to get 200,000 fans. Give or take. Hardcore enough to watch the multiplayer version. Thats 4%. 4% of number which itself would be barely enough to ensure the long term life of starcraft. 200,000 people can't sustain the tournaments we see. 200,000 can't grow it beyond what it is and 200,000 aren't all as hardcore as the people on TL. I don't know how many are on TL but I doubt all of them are as hardcore as we would all like to be. If starcraft is to survive as an esport the next two expansions need to drive numbers up into the millions of watchers. When mlg/nasl/ipl is getting 1 million views for the starcraft stream THEN sc2 might be on the path to being a sustainable business/esport/whatever. But until that day its a very sad state of affairs and only a matter of time before the "money" pulls out of the scene and you are left with the few hobbyists playing for fun. TL is currently only a hobbyists level site. And I would consider it the premium sc site. | ||
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StarStruck
25339 Posts
On August 25 2011 04:49 Utinni wrote: This is all based on personal opinion and skewed to how he believes things work. Good thing, the only thing I got out of this was the fact he didn't know how things work. :/ Things like Barcraft are opening new doors, agreed Drlemur. | ||
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DivinitySC2
United States244 Posts
On August 25 2011 05:19 Bobgrimly wrote: The man is right. Sc2 is stagnating and with stagnation comes degeneration. Quick math... I don't know the exact figures (tried to find with a quick search) Lets say blizzard sold 5 million copies. (saw a post saying they were close to 4.5 earlier in the year.) 100,000 watch a stream at mlg/nasl finals/dream hack,.... assume some crossover in fans and lets be generous say only half are cross overs you would be lucky to get 200,000 fans. Give or take. Hardcore enough to watch the multiplayer version. Thats 4%. 4% of number which itself would be barely enough to ensure the long term life of starcraft. 200,000 people can't sustain the tournaments we see. 200,000 can't grow it beyond what it is and 200,000 aren't all as hardcore as the people on TL. I don't know how many are on TL but I doubt all of them are as hardcore as we would all like to be. If starcraft is to survive as an esport the next two expansions need to drive numbers up into the millions of watchers. When mlg/nasl/ipl is getting 1 million views for the starcraft stream THEN sc2 might be on the path to being a sustainable business/esport/whatever. But until that day its a very sad state of affairs and only a matter of time before the "money" pulls out of the scene and you are left with the few hobbyists playing for fun. TL is currently only a hobbyists level site. And I would consider it the premium sc site. Exactly, its stressful that some people just don't want to face the reality (they know its happening they just don't want to face the reality), that the scene is starting to stagnate, sure these new exciting things like barcraft/mlg centerstage are taking place but your ordinary sc2 player wont instantly buy the game then start going to barcraft/mlg, there is a rabbit hole to jump down, it is a funnel process.. | ||
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Daudr
Sweden275 Posts
On August 25 2011 05:19 Bobgrimly wrote: The man is right. Sc2 is stagnating and with stagnation comes degeneration. Quick math... I don't know the exact figures (tried to find with a quick search) Lets say blizzard sold 5 million copies. (saw a post saying they were close to 4.5 earlier in the year.) 100,000 watch a stream at mlg/nasl finals/dream hack,.... assume some crossover in fans and lets be generous say only half are cross overs you would be lucky to get 200,000 fans. Give or take. Hardcore enough to watch the multiplayer version. Thats 4%. 4% of number which itself would be barely enough to ensure the long term life of starcraft. 200,000 people can't sustain the tournaments we see. 200,000 can't grow it beyond what it is and 200,000 aren't all as hardcore as the people on TL. I don't know how many are on TL but I doubt all of them are as hardcore as we would all like to be. If starcraft is to survive as an esport the next two expansions need to drive numbers up into the millions of watchers. When mlg/nasl/ipl is getting 1 million views for the starcraft stream THEN sc2 might be on the path to being a sustainable business/esport/whatever. But until that day its a very sad state of affairs and only a matter of time before the "money" pulls out of the scene and you are left with the few hobbyists playing for fun. TL is currently only a hobbyists level site. And I would consider it the premium sc site. MLG Anaheim had 940,583 unique viewers according to Sundance, CEO of MLG. That's double the viewers from Columbus afaik. I'm sorry, but I don't really see the scene doing anything but growing at this point. | ||
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Doodsmack
United States7224 Posts
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Utinni
Canada1196 Posts
On August 25 2011 05:36 DivinitySC2 wrote: Exactly, its stressful that some people just don't want to face the reality (they know its happening they just don't want to face the reality), that the scene is starting to stagnate, sure these new exciting things like barcraft/mlg centerstage are taking place but your ordinary sc2 player wont instantly buy the game then start going to barcraft/mlg, there is a rabbit hole to jump down, it is a funnel process.. Did you expect everyone to drop their pants and go out and get starcraft 2? The scene is developing, the new expansions will always create a buzz. The game is a year old and you want diamond encrusted trophies for all. The game is gonna be changing for years to come and you demand more now... (which is fine), but be glad how big sc2 has already gotten. If you were a cs player you'd be crying right now. Give it time to grow. Just do what you can to help it grow. You let a friend play sc2... give him some vids to watch maybe. Just try to teach him. If he doesn't like it, whatever. If he does, he will play... he will prolly buy hots too and you have another buddy to play with  The more the merrier.I've probably got a friend a month that pick up sc2 and plays atleast 5-10 hours a week. You gotta realize that every game is going to have a burst in sales... then slowly go stagnate... If you found a game that is still growing after 15 years... let me know, I have a couple thousand to invest. | ||
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Coal
Sweden1535 Posts
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Rococo
United States331 Posts
On August 25 2011 05:19 ak1knight wrote: How do people hear about GSL without seeing/playing SC2 first? Gomtv.net isn't exactly the most mainstream website and once you get there you either have to pay 10$ to actually watch anything or happen to be there at 4am. MLG I can understand because they had a significant presence pre-SC2 with Halo, but even then the amount of people that discover SC2 through MLG is limited then to Halo/COD fans who check out the SC2 stream in their stream's down time; those guys are already "esports fans" which isn't what the OP is talking about imo. Word of mouth and exposure through non-SC2 specific online communities like Reddit. About the time, it comes on at a reasonable hour for much of the world. | ||
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Mastertouch
United States136 Posts
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Bobgrimly
New Zealand250 Posts
On August 25 2011 05:41 erwthe wrote: MLG Anaheim had 940,583 unique viewers according to Sundance, CEO of MLG. That's double the viewers from Columbus afaik. I'm sorry, but I don't really see the scene doing anything but growing at this point. FOR STARCRAFT??? OR FOR EVERYTHING THEY STREAMED IN TOTAL? Remember they have more than one game to stream. If that is honest to god legitimate numbers for STARCRAFT ALONE I would say yes then the scene has good potential. But weed out the other games and I think you will see the REAL result of starcraft. And it doesn't have long term sustainability. I hope to be wrong... I really do. The next two expansions will determine starcrafts fate. I hope it becomes the wonder land we all wish. But using numbers incorrectly to fool ourselves into thinking its going to be better than it is, is stupid. If the next two expansions reinvigorate the scene to that level of viewers then it would be great! | ||
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