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On November 30 2010 01:34 killerdog wrote:
my thought process goes (prioritised in this order)
vote for foriegner,
if no forigner
vote for legend (boxer,nada, ppl like that)
if no legend
vote for best player
if no clear best player
vote for most likely to perform a ceremony
if i dont know,
vote for player with picture.
There, added a step.
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I went pretty good in gsl 2, but this gsl i keep voting for guys I want to win instead of guys who would win. Also sometimes I don't notice that X is actually some big name whom I know as Y..
If I haven't got a favourite I vote for the person with the best results, if there isn't a big difference I look in their match history for the matchup.
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I got lucky with 10-in-a-row correct for this season, though I'm only slightly above average overall...
The Ro64 is really a crapshoot because there are a ton of people you don't know well.
Ro32 the better player should win, though its sometimes tough figuring out who is actually the better player.
Now as we move into Ro16 and forward (and the votes are worth more) I am waiting for map choices to come up before voting, and with 4-6 recent games from each player as history, we can get a good idea of a players strengths/weaknesses
also motbob's blog post is a good read if you want to win, not just do well...tldr-you have to pick the correct upsets to win big
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Offtopic: Someone got points for the match HongUn vs JSL?
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Looked at my stats: Hottest Voting Streak 7 Correct votes in a row
I'm proud! My total score isn't very good though 
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If you follow the GSL at least a bit, just vote for the "stronger" player. Be it generally better, or matchup-specific. If somebodys PvP is absolute garbage, he'll probably not win that MU. No matter what his ID is.
The only time this doesn't fully apply is in the ro64. Because there WILL be terrible guys who lucked through the qualifiers. Those will not win, no matter how much the star(craft)s favor them.
This is pretty much the reason why the "vote for the guy with a picture" is so effective. The ones without a picture are not a) previous GSL participants b) SC:BW transitioners or c) other known personalities (foreigners, WC3 pros, ...).
So chances are high they suck.
If such a person has no clan/team, you can bet on him losing without regret.
After ro64 it gets more tricky.
1.) Base bets on the ro64 performance.
- If the MU is different, be cautious
- Mirrors are almost always a huge coinflip. (Exceptions, of course are to be considered. For example, Boxer's TvT is very good. NesTea's ZvZ too. While those are probably considered better players anyways -at least NesTea-, it still should factor into decicion-making) I advise to skip to 4.)
2.) Base bets on previous season's performance
- Skill can drastically change in that timeframe. Take NesTea's GSL1 performance. That was...underwhelming. Sorry to take him as example again and seem like a fanboy
3.) Look at the MU + maps
Now we're talking balance, not players. You should be getting here if the guys have comparable skill.
- If maps clearly favor a certain race, they'll probably do well. A Prime example this season would be Mr Marine VS Monster. TvZ on Jungle, Steppes (and maybe LT)? If you play SC2 you know what to do.
- If in doubt here look at the second map. This is the most important one. If second and third both favor someone, bet on him.
If first and second favor, then you can vote him too, but if the third is less then neutral (meaning: favoring the opp even slightly) you may want to think about it again.
4.) If you can't decide at all, just bet on whom you want to win. Hell, it won't cost your life to be wrong.
Do that and you will place with >60% points, at least.
But should you want to actually win the liquibets, you'll need to take some risks, and of course be INSANELY lucky.
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1) check maps,check what race is favored by maps
2) check previous performance of players
3) combine 1 with 2 (favored by maps + estimated skill lvl)
4)whatever happend before,never vote protoss after ro64
my gsl 3 rules for voting.
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For BW Liquibets, power rank, recent games I've seen, favorites players of mine, and past history between the two players in a given match (if any) all factor into my decision.
For GSL Liquibets I've gone simply by how good the performance was by players in the previous season, also I tend to vote for new players fairly often in the ro64, because frequently they have impressive play. I also employ a foreigner auto-vote, no matter who they face.
In both cases I basically think about the match up (race v race) and the two players facing each other and who is most likely to perform consistently in that instance (not necessarily who will win, but who will play the cleanest game as that is usually who wins as well).
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click guys i know /that have a pic 3 minutes before voting ends , be happy about not forgetting to vote yet again
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+ Show Spoiler +On November 30 2010 03:40 Dandel Ion wrote:
If you follow the GSL at least a bit, just vote for the "stronger" player. Be it generally better, or matchup-specific. If somebodys PvP is absolute garbage, he'll probably not win that MU. No matter what his ID is.
The only time this doesn't fully apply is in the ro64. Because there WILL be terrible guys who lucked through the qualifiers. Those will not win, no matter how much the star(craft)s favor them.
This is pretty much the reason why the "vote for the guy with a picture" is so effective. The ones without a picture are not a) previous GSL participants b) SC:BW transitioners or c) other known personalities (foreigners, WC3 pros, ...).
So chances are high they suck.
If such a person has no clan/team, you can bet on him losing without regret.
After ro64 it gets more tricky.
1.) Base bets on the ro64 performance.
- If the MU is different, be cautious
- Mirrors are almost always a huge coinflip. (Exceptions, of course are to be considered. For example, Boxer's TvT is very good. NesTea's ZvZ too. While those are probably considered better players anyways -at least NesTea-, it still should factor into decicion-making) I advise to skip to 4.)
2.) Base bets on previous season's performance
- Skill can drastically change in that timeframe. Take NesTea's GSL1 performance. That was...underwhelming. Sorry to take him as example again and seem like a fanboy
3.) Look at the MU + maps
Now we're talking balance, not players. You should be getting here if the guys have comparable skill.
- If maps clearly favor a certain race, they'll probably do well. A Prime example this season would be Mr Marine VS Monster. TvZ on Jungle, Steppes (and maybe LT)? If you play SC2 you know what to do.
- If in doubt here look at the second map. This is the most important one. If second and third both favor someone, bet on him.
If first and second favor, then you can vote him too, but if the third is less then neutral (meaning: favoring the opp even slightly) you may want to think about it again.
4.) If you can't decide at all, just bet on whom you want to win. Hell, it won't cost your life to be wrong.
Do that and you will place with >60% points, at least.
But should you want to actually win the liquibets, you'll need to take some risks, and of course be INSANELY lucky.
Good advice  Actually, I'm right about 61 or 62% at the moment. Maybe i should play the lottery! 
On November 30 2010 03:10 zzaaxxsscd wrote:
I got lucky with 10-in-a-row correct for this season, though I'm only slightly above average overall...
This is exactly where I am at. 1803 and a 10 streak win as well lol.
One consensus i'm seeing here seems to be pics vs non pics. As well as known v unknown. But sometimes Unknowns have shown us that they can indeed shine!
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Gut feeling and then try to figure out why after.
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If i have a sense of who is better, I usually do that, if i don't, such as many BW players, I base it on whose face looks more fearsome in their picture. I have a better BW liquibet score than SCII, which i follow closer. its science bitches. Can't be disproven.
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I vote for who I want to win, as such I generally don't do too well on the points
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place #21 reporting
this season i was more serious and i included the maps they were playing in my decisionmaking. though i dindt do that many stupid mistakes. (e.g. i thought moon would loose in r64 cause lack of practise. thought i got suprised by some. for example bitbybit doing only all ins against new dawn. i made 2 times 7-in-a-row and once 6-in-a-row. (and some minor like 4-in-a-row etc) and only lost 2 bets since the beginning of round of 16.
i do my decisions like this:
1) skill
2) playstyle
3) maps
4) current metagame and matchup
5) comments
6) pictures (didnt happen this season)
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Decide which is the better player
Pick the other person because this is SC2
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GSL S3 really messed me up. i missed 0 votes/points:
Correct Votes 25 of 62 votes made
Points Percentage 39%
Worst Voting Streak 8 Wrong votes in a row
what i did, in case you want to avoid it:
Ro64 picked based on race and ignored names.
Ro32 picked the underdog.
Ro16 picked the favorite.
Ro8 picked MY favorite.
Semifinals picked Protoss.
Finals picked Protoss.
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Early in the LB seasons I just pick who I think will win or who will help me get furthest in the rankings. Towards the end I just go for the pick that I know less people will pick, because its the only chance I have at making the comeback.
I got 17th in last season of bw liquibet, and am currently top 100 there, and something like 300th currently for LB2. I picked Rain throughout because I knew he'd get me points if he pulls off some crazy shit.
I genuinely t hink MC will win, but I picked Rain, because I know I physically can't win, might as well ATTEMPT to get the highest rank possible.
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EPT
