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I don't think that the bonus pool has much to do with where you get promoted to.
If you look at the people on this list:
http://sc2ranks.com/div/71840/division-aiur-psi
I did a spot check and most of the people were promoted within the last 5 days. In addition, Blizzard increments their divisions more or less when they create new divisions, and this division number, 31735, is pretty high which indicates it's pretty new.
If you look on that page you'll see that the bonus pool varies greatly within the division.
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On February 16 2011 04:31 random user wrote:I don't think that the bonus pool has much to do with where you get promoted to. If you look at the people on this list: http://sc2ranks.com/div/71840/division-aiur-psiI did a spot check and most of the people were promoted within the last 5 days. In addition, Blizzard increments their divisions more or less when they create new divisions, and this division number, 31735, is pretty high which indicates it's pretty new. If you look on that page you'll see that the bonus pool varies greatly within the division.
Perhaps, I can be more clear.
The top of that division has people whose display ranking is approaching their MMR. They have many games played and were most likely near convergence and stable prior to promotion. Now after promotion if you take their spent bonus pool + 73 (less unknown division offset) they are still relatively close to convergence, meaning they will be -11, +12 for even matches and not something like -6, +20 showing both them and the opponent favored. I speculate this is where the points in the division in general would converge if everyone were to mass game and win at a 50% ratio
Then if you look at the bottom those are most likely the placed to platinum folks where stability in point gain can't be had because they just started and are good so they are more similar to the new masters league case.
That leaves the middle promotions, perhaps here is where some offset could be determined, The folks with the 60-64% win ratios. These are the people who improved quickly and got a promotion.
It was the different ranked diamond divisions on creation that got me thinking about this. Before the +73 bit was solved when Masters was created. Where the majority would have similar win % and games played with a few that were higher.
Then the creation of Masters and the +20, -6 phenomenon and the fact that it was not normally seen during regular ladder promotions and hence noteworthy contributes to this.
Maybe even, if you saw a new division that did not get any players that spent their entire bonus pool then you would know it was a 0-offset division, because while they are high enough MMR for promotion and stable enough, they are not close enough to convergence that they need to gain points quickly still.
Does that make any sense?
Edit: Unfortunately I feel like I am saying what Michaelhasanalies was trying to make equations for. Only I don't think that it solves MMR, I think that the ladder has ranked division for points gain/loss stability among the most active players.
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United States12224 Posts
I'm unclear about what you're proposing with regard to the bonus pool. In the end, the bonus pool is completely discarded by the system. Whether your bonus pool is 1000 or 2000 or 2500 or 0 makes no difference for your promotion eligibility. Since it accrues at the same rate for everyone, this makes it easy to simply toss out when determining actual player skill. In this capacity, it serves the same function as global decay. That's why you never lose the bonus points you've earned when you move from one league to another (73 + spent bonus). Unless I'm misunderstanding what you're trying to say?
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I was not concerned with Bonus pool with respect to promotion. I was concerned with bonus pool with respect to matchmaking. How much you have spent will make a difference in the points your opponent gains or loses right?
So far the premise of ladder analysis had been:
Division tiers exist to normalize league points across divisions and league offsets exist to normalize points across leagues
What I wonder is if it makes any sense to consider:
Division tiers and league tiers exist to balance the matchmaking system of Displayed ranking (spent bonus pool matters?) vs hidden MMR
It is just a shift in the angle the analysis is approached from.
I suspect that I still have not described this well, I feel somewhat like Ford Prefect in the hitchhikers guide trying to find the spaceship that is cloaked by a SEP:
Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy:
An SEP is something we can't see, or don't see, or our brain doesn't let us see, because we think that it's somebody else's problem.... The brain just edits it out, it's like a blind spot. If you look at it directly you won't see it unless you know precisely what it is. Your only hope is to catch it by surprise out of the corner of your eye.
The technology involved in making something properly invisible is so mind-bogglingly complex that 999,999,999 times out of a billion it's simpler just to take the thing away and do without it....... The "Somebody Else's Problem field" is much simpler, more effective, and "can be run for over a hundred years on a single torch battery."
This is because it relies on people's natural predisposition not to see anything they don't want to, weren't expecting, or can't explain.
If I figure out a better way to explain it or catch a glimpse of it out of the corner of my eye I will come back and attempt to clarify further.
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How much you have spent will make a difference in the points your opponent gains or loses right?
No. If I have 3000 bonus pool + 0 real points in bronze and you have 0 bonus pool + 0 real points, (and you are not a new player, just a loser like me) then we are even and you'll get the same amount of points I would if I beat you, cause this 3000 bonus pool are just ignored by the system.
The reason the master players were gaining lots of points (everyone was favored) wasn't because of bonus pool, but because of their high MMR.
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Ya, I am almost positive that bonus pool has nothing to do with anything besides your displayed rating. One thing that is for sure is that the system does not count bonus points in their calculation of your visible rating for the purpose of determining the points gained/lost from a match.
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LA server 32th platinum division has emerged today.
What could I confirm:
http://www.sc2ranks.com/div/la/platinum/1/points/0
Notice all the divisions with 100 players, they are all from the same tier than the new division.
Now look at the 3 divisions with 83-84 players. They are also the same tier, they fill together, they were all 70-78 last month and are filling very slowly, together. I have no idea what happened for these 3 divisions to lose players and then start filling again, but it is.
I'll try to find out which one is S and which one is A as soon as possible, but if the Diamond F-E phenomenum is any indication, the 3 divisions with 84 players are A and the rest is S.
Now I'll try to pay special attention to gold divisions here:
http://www.sc2ranks.com/div/la/gold/1/points/0
As all of them seem to have 99-100 players, it'd be expected a new division really soon for LA Gold league, it really seems that there is only 1 tier on gold on LA server, but that can be misleading cause of possible coincidences, hope I can confirm something "soon".
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United States12224 Posts
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Big news!!!!!
COINCIDENCES EXIST
A even newer division on platinum on LA servers has been created today!! That means that the reason for all divisions (but 3) to have 100 players was that 2 new divisions were to come alive soon!
Something like that could happen on gold as well.
That said, 3 divisions on LA platinum CONFIRMED 
http://www.sc2ranks.com/div/la/platinum/1/points/0
Edit:
O fixed my theory then:
Rank S are probably these 3 divisions with 84 players.
Rank A are probably the divisions with the most active players.
Rank B will be the F-Rank on platinum, with mainly new players and really low points.
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With 2 new divisions popping up so quickly do you think this could say anything about the promotion system?
In other words is the system creating more divisions because a lot of people are close to promotions, or is the system going to be less strict on promoting players in order to fill so many new spots? Or maybe a lot of people just bought the game in LA the last few weeks? lol
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Random stat of the day:
In the past 29 or so hours, of the top 500 semi-active gold players in NA server, approximately 41 of them (in other words about 8%) were promoted into plat. This sample size does not include anyone outside of the top 500.
Those 41 I found were put into 23 different divisions with the following distributions:
+ Show Spoiler + Khalis Yankee: 16 Tal'darim Upsilon: 2 Sarengo Quest: 2 Tarsonis Upsilon: 2 Azimar Foxtrot: 1 Dominion Iota: 1 Gantrithor Bravo: 1 Roach Phi: 1 Sargas Indigo: 1 Amerigo Lambda: 1 Artika Uncle: 1 Phoenix Epsilon: 1 Taarim Romeo: 1 Araq Omega: 1 Broodling Lima: 1 Overlord Delta: 1 Reaper Chi: 1 Zamara Echo: 1 Reaver Sigma: 1 Aldaris Sierra: 1 Aiur Psi: 1 Sargas Upsilon: 1 Valerian Rho: 1
Useful to anyone? Not sure. I decided to post this to give people some idea of how frequent promotion is within the top 500. I hope it's not too far off-topic; it seemed pretty much within the realm of division tiers to me.
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United States12224 Posts
Khalis Yankee is now full, and according to its Battle.net page, everyone in that division joined either yesterday or today, so it's brand new.
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I wonder if my slice happened to just take a snapshot right when the division filled or something else is going on. You would think that barring an unlikely coincidence if the division filled there ought to be another division with a lot of people, or at least something higher than 2. Yet that didn't happen.
I had originally been thinking that you might be able to estimate the number of promotions/day based on the frequency of new divisions popping up, but given that data, I'm not sure you can say much of anything.
I'll take another snapshot tomorrow and see if there is anything interesting.
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On February 17 2011 08:37 DiDigital wrote: In other words is the system creating more divisions because a lot of people are close to promotions, or is the system going to be less strict on promoting players in order to fill so many new spots? Or maybe a lot of people just bought the game in LA the last few weeks? lol
The system doesn't care if there is 40 full divisions or 40 divisions with half players. It will promoted people regardless and create new divisions only if needed (all divisions being full). If a division will remain with 1 player for some time cause none else deserve a promotion, that is not a problem, the system don't care.
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On February 17 2011 09:42 random user wrote:Random stat of the day: In the past 29 or so hours, of the top 500 semi-active gold players in NA server, approximately 41 of them (in other words about 8%) were promoted into plat. This sample size does not include anyone outside of the top 500. Those 41 I found were put into 23 different divisions with the following distributions: + Show Spoiler + Khalis Yankee: 16 Tal'darim Upsilon: 2 Sarengo Quest: 2 Tarsonis Upsilon: 2 Azimar Foxtrot: 1 Dominion Iota: 1 Gantrithor Bravo: 1 Roach Phi: 1 Sargas Indigo: 1 Amerigo Lambda: 1 Artika Uncle: 1 Phoenix Epsilon: 1 Taarim Romeo: 1 Araq Omega: 1 Broodling Lima: 1 Overlord Delta: 1 Reaper Chi: 1 Zamara Echo: 1 Reaver Sigma: 1 Aldaris Sierra: 1 Aiur Psi: 1 Sargas Upsilon: 1 Valerian Rho: 1
Useful to anyone? Not sure. I decided to post this to give people some idea of how frequent promotion is within the top 500. I hope it's not too far off-topic; it seemed pretty much within the realm of division tiers to me.
If we had the time of the promotions it could prove Khalis Yankee division to be on another tier then all the other. But as we don't, that could mean that the system first had to fill the "old" divisions for just then create a new one.
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On February 17 2011 09:54 random user wrote: I wonder if my slice happened to just take a snapshot right when the division filled or something else is going on. You would think that barring an unlikely coincidence if the division filled there ought to be another division with a lot of people, or at least something higher than 2. Yet that didn't happen.
I had originally been thinking that you might be able to estimate the number of promotions/day based on the frequency of new divisions popping up, but given that data, I'm not sure you can say much of anything.
I'll take another snapshot tomorrow and see if there is anything interesting.
NA server has so much players that at the time sc2ranks updates them they are potencially full already.
That's why I am now only looking at LA, SEA and Russian servers (specially LA ^^).
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United States12224 Posts
On February 17 2011 10:47 SDream wrote:Show nested quote +On February 17 2011 09:42 random user wrote:Random stat of the day: In the past 29 or so hours, of the top 500 semi-active gold players in NA server, approximately 41 of them (in other words about 8%) were promoted into plat. This sample size does not include anyone outside of the top 500. Those 41 I found were put into 23 different divisions with the following distributions: + Show Spoiler + Khalis Yankee: 16 Tal'darim Upsilon: 2 Sarengo Quest: 2 Tarsonis Upsilon: 2 Azimar Foxtrot: 1 Dominion Iota: 1 Gantrithor Bravo: 1 Roach Phi: 1 Sargas Indigo: 1 Amerigo Lambda: 1 Artika Uncle: 1 Phoenix Epsilon: 1 Taarim Romeo: 1 Araq Omega: 1 Broodling Lima: 1 Overlord Delta: 1 Reaper Chi: 1 Zamara Echo: 1 Reaver Sigma: 1 Aldaris Sierra: 1 Aiur Psi: 1 Sargas Upsilon: 1 Valerian Rho: 1
Useful to anyone? Not sure. I decided to post this to give people some idea of how frequent promotion is within the top 500. I hope it's not too far off-topic; it seemed pretty much within the realm of division tiers to me. If we had the time of the promotions it could prove Khalis Yankee division to be on another tier then all the other. But as we don't, that could mean that the system first had to fill the "old" divisions for just then create a new one.
Well, we do know when the players were placed in Khalis Yankee:
http://us.battle.net/sc2/en/profile/2012265/1/Calzay/ladder/32143#current-rank
63 placed on 2/15, 37 placed on 2/16.
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On February 13 2011 03:25 Excalibur_Z wrote:Show nested quote +On February 13 2011 01:44 Eeryck wrote: Just tossing this out there.
You figured out that: Post promotion points = unspent bonus pool +73 Points offset between diamond and masters is 150 Points offset between known diamond divisions is 63
It is assumed that: Points offset between all divisions is 150 If tiers in lower divisions exist they are at 63 point offset
Then there is the data point that just got left behind once the promotion was solved at unspent bonus pool +73. There was still the fact that promotions were happening and the point loss was a multiple of 63 (the original assumption)
Why did the original assumption work out so neatly, when the actual method was unspent bonus pool +73?
Do the three data points we know plus the old method plus the assumptions possibly give a way to determine additional tiers for the continuous ladder?
The point loss wasn't 63 in all cases, it just was for me and a couple of other people. For the others who had exact match histories we had those jotted off to the side as unexplainable anomalies. It wasn't until Master league where we noticed the pattern that we were able to go back and see if it fit, which it did (which was very disappointing because it clouds all of the offsets). Because of that, we may not be able to find the offsets of the other leagues and their division tiers (we had to rely on the top 200 to get the ones we know).
Perhaps someone can explain this to me. It was discovered that your points reset to 73+Bonus pool when you change leagues. You mean this happens to other leagues and not just the diamond to master promotion?
Is this actually 73+ division offset + bonus pool? Because then I don't see why we cant easily figure out a Diamond division's offset by seeing what people's ratings are right when they come into the division and subtracting 73 and the bonus pool used (easier for the super active people, but doable for everyone)
There must be something I'm missing
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United States12224 Posts
On February 17 2011 12:03 Oconomist wrote:Show nested quote +On February 13 2011 03:25 Excalibur_Z wrote:On February 13 2011 01:44 Eeryck wrote: Just tossing this out there.
You figured out that: Post promotion points = unspent bonus pool +73 Points offset between diamond and masters is 150 Points offset between known diamond divisions is 63
It is assumed that: Points offset between all divisions is 150 If tiers in lower divisions exist they are at 63 point offset
Then there is the data point that just got left behind once the promotion was solved at unspent bonus pool +73. There was still the fact that promotions were happening and the point loss was a multiple of 63 (the original assumption)
Why did the original assumption work out so neatly, when the actual method was unspent bonus pool +73?
Do the three data points we know plus the old method plus the assumptions possibly give a way to determine additional tiers for the continuous ladder?
The point loss wasn't 63 in all cases, it just was for me and a couple of other people. For the others who had exact match histories we had those jotted off to the side as unexplainable anomalies. It wasn't until Master league where we noticed the pattern that we were able to go back and see if it fit, which it did (which was very disappointing because it clouds all of the offsets). Because of that, we may not be able to find the offsets of the other leagues and their division tiers (we had to rely on the top 200 to get the ones we know). Perhaps someone can explain this to me. It was discovered that your points reset to 73+Bonus pool when you change leagues. You mean this happens to other leagues and not just the diamond to master promotion? Is this actually 73+ division offset + bonus pool? Because then I don't see why we cant easily figure out a Diamond division's offset by seeing what people's ratings are right when they come into the division and subtracting 73 and the bonus pool used (easier for the super active people, but doable for everyone) There must be something I'm missing
It's always 73 + spent bonus, for every league in every instance. If you're in a +0 offset Diamond tier, 73 + spent bonus. If you're in a +252 offset Diamond tier, 73 + spent bonus. If you're in a Bronze division, 73 + spent bonus. This actually makes it completely impossible to determine division or league offsets after a promotion because it effectively obfuscates them.
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Got it, thanks for clearing that up. I guess the division offsets come into play through the points you earn through games.
Any progress on that program that can analyze replays and pull data from battle.net profiles?
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