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SC2 Ladder Analysis: Division Tiers - Page 44

Forum Index > SC2 General
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SDream
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
Brazil896 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-02-21 01:59:58
February 21 2011 01:53 GMT
#861
225 adjusted rating on his bronze league unknow tier.

- 150 AR from the leagues difference, 75 AR. - 63 AR for him to be an active player, then most likely having a huge enough moving average to skip a tier and then we can probably guess that he was on a S Rank bronze division and went to an A Rank silver division. (as there is only 3 tiers on silver)

This is my best guess, but no, I can't prove anything

michaelhasanalias
Profile Joined May 2010
Korea (South)1231 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-02-21 03:18:12
February 21 2011 03:16 GMT
#862
On February 21 2011 10:53 SDream wrote:
225 adjusted rating on his bronze league unknow tier.

- 150 AR from the leagues difference, 75 AR. - 63 AR for him to be an active player, then most likely having a huge enough moving average to skip a tier and then we can probably guess that he was on a S Rank bronze division and went to an A Rank silver division. (as there is only 3 tiers on silver)

This is my best guess, but no, I can't prove anything



Khrone went from plat to diamond, unless you are referring to something else?
KR NsPMichael.805 | AM Michael.2640 | SEA Michael.523 | 엔에스피 New Star Players
SDream
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
Brazil896 Posts
February 21 2011 03:37 GMT
#863
lol I thought he went from bronze to silver o.O

I think I am too focused on bronze right now, sorry.

S Rank Plat -> E rank Diamond then
Excalibur_Z
Profile Joined October 2002
United States12236 Posts
February 21 2011 17:02 GMT
#864
Regarding the number of tiers per league, maybe we need to find a different research method. I spoke with Shadowed on Friday about the so-called "dead divisions" -- divisions that at one time existed but which now have no players. While it's easy to notice these "dead divisions" after they're already completely empty, it's quite a bit tougher to distinguish "dying divisions" with different tiers of divisions. That is, the mere existence of an incomplete division is not enough to conclude that it is a separate tier, as it could also be a division that's simply on its way down to 0 players. It is possible that a "dying division" does in fact represent a different tier, but perhaps one that doesn't have the same skill level as everyone else in the league, and that's why it's dying. It may take several snapshots to gather which divisions are increasing in size versus decreasing for all the leagues except for Diamond (both because Diamond is still ravaged by the mass promotions into Master as well as all the tiers having been discovered).
Moderator
Excalibur_Z
Profile Joined October 2002
United States12236 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-02-21 20:21:09
February 21 2011 19:42 GMT
#865
Okay just at random I decided to look at divisions with less than 100 players on LA for 2v2:

2v2 Platinum
Ursa Pi - 58 (12/29 - 2/18, mostly Jan)
Brood Lord Theta - 72 (2/5 - 2/21)
Firebat Gamma - 75 (2/13 - 2/20)
Duran Pepper - 93 (10/19 - 12/26), dying?
New Folsom Alpha - 94 (7/31 - 12/26, mostly Sept), dying?
Aiur Juliet - 95 (12/23 - 1/15), dying?
Routhe Alamo - 95 (1/24 - 2/10), dying?
Akilae Rho - 97 (1/10 - 2/10, mostly 1/20ish), dying?
Aldaris Oscar - 95 (9/8 - 12/21, mostly Sept), dying?
Reagan Zed - 96 (11/7 - 2/3, mostly Nov), dying?
Khalis Mars - 96 (1/15 - 2/3), dying?
Nargil Foxtrot - 98 (9/28 - 1/14, mostly Oct), dying?
Koronis Whiskey - 98 (12/7 - 2/11, mostly Dec), dying?
Colossus Yankee - 98 (11/27 - 2/8, mostly Nov/Dec), dying?

2v2 Gold
Umoja Lima - 27 (2/18 - 2/21)
Tabrenus Tau - 55 (2/16 - 2/21)
Prelate X-Ray - 96 (2/6 - 2/14), dying?
Zasz Alamo - 99 (10/28 - 2/6, mostly Oct/Nov), dying?

2v2 Silver
Judicator Sigma - 7 (2/20 - 2/21)
Colossus Sierra - 33 (2/17 - 2/21)
Mar Sara Nu - 87 (2/10 - 2/21)
Artanis Delta - 95 (1/26 - 2/7), dying?
Drone Gravity - 97 (1/14 - 2/7), dying?
Hive Yankee - 97 (1/30 - 2/13), dying?

2v2 Bronze
Duran Yankee - 35 (2/18 - 2/21)
Vermillion November - 31 (2/18 - 2/21)
Moria Psi - 59 (2/14 - 2/21)
Arbiter Zed - 66 (2/16 - 2/21)
Defiler Tango - 75 (2/15 - 2/21)
Kaloth Eta - 90 (2/8 - 2/21)
Corsair Beta - 95 (1/24 - 2/13, mostly Jan), dying?
Fole Zed - 98 (9/30 - 2/21, mostly Oct, only one 2/21), dying?

The date ranges in parentheses include the join dates for everyone within that division. If there were some large ranges or weird phenomena I listed it, for example divisions where the vast majority of players joined in the same week and had quite a few outliers scattered around).

Tentatively this would suggest 2 or 3 Plat tiers, 2 for Gold, 3 for Silver, 6 or possibly 7 Bronze tiers. It's still not clear to me why divisions die, but maybe Ursa Pi is an example of one?
Moderator
SDream
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
Brazil896 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-02-21 20:14:48
February 21 2011 19:58 GMT
#866
Well, 1 month in LA server is equivalent to 1 hour in NA server, if you can grasp what I mean. I wouldn't say it's dying, it is just filling very slowly. Every other division of the same tier will seem to be "dying" till the newest division reach the same number of players (remember the system will first put the new players on the least filled division).

Day 1:

New division X: 1 player

Old division Y: 100 players

Day 2:

New division X: 16 players

Old division Y: 94 players

Day 3:

New division X: 80 players

Old division Y: 80 players

Day 4:

New division X: 90 players

Old division Y: 89 players

Day 5:

Division X: 100 players

Division Y: 100 players

Division Z (New): 1 player

That would be my guess, ursa pi is the X, Duran Pepper and other are in the same tier, the Y. Maybe I've should put month 1 instead of day 1 lol

New divisions: not dying, just slowly filling.

Old divisions: not dying, just waiting for new division.

Edit:

Also, I am glad you pretty much confirmed 7 tiers on bronze; there seems to me a coincidence would be impossible, maybe we can reconfirm watching it another day.
Excalibur_Z
Profile Joined October 2002
United States12236 Posts
February 21 2011 20:19 GMT
#867
Oh that's a good point. Let's see how that factors into the data:

In Plat, Ursa Pi, Brood Lord Theta and Firebat Gamma have all gained 1 additional player since I posted that data. These are probably all separate tiers. If there were 2 tiers, Ursa Pi would have gained 2 players while an equal but larger division would have gained none.

In Gold, Umoja Lima and Tabrenus Tau are both getting players (both have new players from 2/21) and their player totals are not equal. This suggests they are separate tiers. So, probably 2 tiers for Gold.

In Silver, Judicator Sigma, Colossus Sierra and Mar Sara Nu are all getting players with unequal player totals (2/21), so those are probably separate tiers. Probably 3 tiers for Silver.

In Bronze it's harder to say. Duran Yankee and Vermillion November are close in player totals, possibly the same tier? Vermillion November just got a 32nd player whereas Duran Yankee is still at 35. We'll see if over the next few hours Vermillion November reaches 35 while Duran Yankee stays at 35. All the rest are probably different tiers.
Moderator
Excalibur_Z
Profile Joined October 2002
United States12236 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-02-21 21:49:12
February 21 2011 21:43 GMT
#868
Okay it's been another hour, let's take a look at how the divisions have changed:

Plat:
Ursa Pi: 59 (no change since last hour)
Brood Lord Theta: 73 (no change)
Firebat Gamma: 76 (no change)

Gold:
Umoja Lima: 28 (+1 player)
Tabrenus Theta: 58 (+3 players)

Silver:
Judicator Sigma: 11 (+3 players)
Colossus Sierra: 34 (+1 player)
Mar Sara Nu: 86 (-1 player) <-- could this mean Mar Sara Nu shares a tier with Colossus Sierra or Judicator Sigma? We'll know that's not the case if this gains players before either of those two reaches 86.

Bronze:
Duran Yankee: 36 (+1 player)
Vermillion November: 32 (no change)
Moria Psi: 60 (+1 player)
Arbiter Zed: 67 (+1 player)
Defiler Tango: 75 (no change)
Kaloth Eta: 90 (no change)

Conclusions:
Duran Yankee and Vermillion November are separate tiers. That pretty much confirms 6 Bronze tiers. Gold definitely has 2 tiers. Platinum definitely has 3. Silver we still don't know for sure whether it's 2 or 3, but we'll see soon enough. Actually, Silver has to have 3 because Mar Sara Nu had players join on 2/21. Sweet! I'm going to start another data parse of NA, probably something like 4v4 that doesn't move very quickly so it will be easier to track, to confirm these results.

Final Estimates:
Master: 1 tier
Diamond: 7 tiers
Plat: 3 tiers
Gold: 2 tiers
Silver: 3 tiers
Bronze: 6 tiers
Moderator
Barbiero
Profile Blog Joined September 2010
Brazil5259 Posts
February 21 2011 21:48 GMT
#869
I have to say that the creativity you must take to do all this reverse engineering stuff is amazing. You're awesome Excalibur_Z, keep it up.
♥ The world needs more hearts! ♥
Excalibur_Z
Profile Joined October 2002
United States12236 Posts
February 21 2011 22:18 GMT
#870
Here's what I found for NA 4v4:

4v4 Plat:
Prelate November - 53 (2/17 - 2/21)
Shakuras Yankee - 92 (2/18 - 2/21)
Felanis Eta - 96 (2/8 - 2/17), capped?
Siege Tank Rho - 98 (11/8 - 12/26, mostly mid-Nov), capped?

4v4 Gold:
Ladranix Zeta - 17 (2/21)
Reaper Quest - 64 (2/20 - 2/21)
Sargas Epsilon - 99 (10/22 - 1/26, mostly late Oct), capped?

4v4 Silver:
Nova Echo - 43 (2/20 - 2/21)
Nagglfar Kappa - 80 (2/19 - 2/21)
Sarengo Dixie - 98 (2/17 - 2/19), capped?

4v4 Bronze:
Moria Victor - 37 (2/21)
Defiler Iota - 47 (2/21)
Kaloth Gamma - 44 (2/20 - 2/21)
Shakuras Theta - 81 (2/20 - 2/21)
Guardian Rho - 91 (2/19 - 2/21)
Xerana Mars - 98 (2/20 - 2/21)
New Folsom Victor - 99 (2/2 - 2/5), capped?

So looks like NA's results are a little different, though it could be skewed by the game type, so I'll look into this further. However, the tighter date ranges do help to show which divisions have capped out (until an equal tier division reaches its size). That means 2 tiers for Plat, 2 for Gold, 2 for Silver, 6 for Bronze.
Moderator
Excalibur_Z
Profile Joined October 2002
United States12236 Posts
February 21 2011 22:34 GMT
#871
And here's NA 3v3:

3v3 Bronze:
Shelak Gamma - 31 (2/21)
Lassatar Alamo - 61 (2/21)
Sentry Mars - 70 (2/20 - 2/21)
Khaydarin Theta - 86 (2/21)
Preserver Rho - 95 (2/20 - 2/21)
Hauler Alamo - 100 (1/14 - 2/21), capped

3v3 Silver:
Selendis Nu - 15 (2/21)
Gorn Yankee - 100 (2/20 - 2/21), capped

3v3 Gold:
Queen Bravo - 65 (2/21)
Shuttle Lima - 100 (2/20 - 2/21), capped

3v3 Plat:
Kelerchian Alpha - 25 (2/21)
Warfield Zeta - 32 (2/20 - 2/21)
Jorgensen Mu - 74 (2/20 - 2/21)
Warbringer Romeo - 98 (1/15 - 2/19, mostly mid-Jan), capped?

Immediately evident is that there aren't as many tiers: 5 for Bronze, 1 for Silver and Gold, 3 for Plat, though the proportions are similar.
Moderator
SDream
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
Brazil896 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-02-22 00:59:00
February 22 2011 00:38 GMT
#872
You need more patience my friend, I'd bet new division from these "capped" tiers are already out there, sc2ranks just haven't found them yet.

Edit: remember: coincidences exist

Edit2: NA bronze 4x4 has 9 pages on sc2ranks. Diamond 1x1 NA had 6 pages and it had 1 new E Rank division almost every single day, I mean... I am not sure you can easily confirm anything with just 1 "snapshot" in such busy server.
Excalibur_Z
Profile Joined October 2002
United States12236 Posts
February 22 2011 03:19 GMT
#873
For NA, sure that's possible because the divisions fill up very quickly. For LA I think the conclusions are accurate.
Moderator
Sandermatt
Profile Joined December 2010
Switzerland1365 Posts
February 22 2011 18:59 GMT
#874
I was just wondering. Does sc2ranks now know more about the division rankings of each division? I see a modifier in any division I click on. Like: Division Bucephalus Omega (3054 - 226). While the first value, Division Lenassa Pepper (3230 - 305). Does the second value have something to do with the division tiers?
Excalibur_Z
Profile Joined October 2002
United States12236 Posts
February 22 2011 20:06 GMT
#875
On February 23 2011 03:59 Sandermatt wrote:
I was just wondering. Does sc2ranks now know more about the division rankings of each division? I see a modifier in any division I click on. Like: Division Bucephalus Omega (3054 - 226). While the first value, Division Lenassa Pepper (3230 - 305). Does the second value have something to do with the division tiers?


That's just the range of the division from the highest player to the lowest player. So Bucephalus Omega has a 3054-point player and a 226-point player, and Lenassa Pepper has a 3230-point player and a 305-point player.
Moderator
duckamuck
Profile Joined January 2011
Norway12 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-02-22 21:27:05
February 22 2011 21:17 GMT
#876
This isn't really on topic, but I think this is the most suitable place.

Have anyone looked at the equation they put up at the panel discussion at Blizzcon? (look here
start at approx 2:00). I believe it's highly relevant for the MMR calculation part, and also useful for those thinking this is based on easy math.



Excalibur_Z
Profile Joined October 2002
United States12236 Posts
February 22 2011 22:15 GMT
#877
On February 23 2011 06:17 duckamuck wrote:
This isn't really on topic, but I think this is the most suitable place.

Have anyone looked at the equation they put up at the panel discussion at Blizzcon? (look here
start at approx 2:00). I believe it's highly relevant for the MMR calculation part, and also useful for those thinking this is based on easy math.





That's actually their "race balance" equation, which is what they use each time a P player beats a Z player on X map. They haven't revealed their matchmaking calculation (though it's probably not as complex).
Moderator
genius_man16
Profile Joined February 2011
United States749 Posts
February 22 2011 23:32 GMT
#878
I wonder if Blizzard will ever release more information on Division tiers and MMR. It seems a little pathetic and worrisome that they are so guarded with simple equation information in their game.

Why are they hiding it? Any reason they have ever given is just a load of crap.

Anyway, on topic, I really enjoy reading this but some of it is still a little above my head. Like how did you determine what kind of division is S-Class and stuff? You don't have to answer b/c I don't think I'll understand it, just thinking out loud a little
Dyrus | Vooby | Balls | Meteos | WildTurtle | Bjergsen | Cop | sexPeke | Xpecial | Aphromoo | Scarra |
Excalibur_Z
Profile Joined October 2002
United States12236 Posts
February 23 2011 00:28 GMT
#879
On February 23 2011 08:32 genius_man16 wrote:
I wonder if Blizzard will ever release more information on Division tiers and MMR. It seems a little pathetic and worrisome that they are so guarded with simple equation information in their game.

Why are they hiding it? Any reason they have ever given is just a load of crap.

Anyway, on topic, I really enjoy reading this but some of it is still a little above my head. Like how did you determine what kind of division is S-Class and stuff? You don't have to answer b/c I don't think I'll understand it, just thinking out loud a little


I mentioned this in the FAQ section.

Q: How did you arrive at these numbers? What methods did you use?
A: You'll notice that the list of players is numbered in Blizz's Top 200. Some players are tied for the same rank. Because it's been explained that the Top 200 is based on points but without division modifiers applied, that means that all players who are tied for the same rank in the Top 200 all had the same unmodified point totals. The Top 200 doesn't list points, only player records, so you have to work backwards along their match history to determine what their point total was at the time of the snapshot.

For example, if Player A is #100 and his Top 200 record was 50-50, but now it's 53-52, you would look at his current rating, go back in his match history, and start adding back points for losses and subtracting points for wins for his last 5 games. Let's say the result is a rating of 1000 and he's in Division A. If Player B is also tied for #100 and you determine his rating is 800 in Division B, then you know that 800 in Division B is equal to 1000 in Division A. Once enough of these data points surface (and I was jotting them down in that "data points" spoiler section as I found them), patterns begin to emerge.

At first, I found the +126 modifier. Then, I found the +252. Then I found the +315. Then the +63. Then I inferred the +189 (between +170 and 200, and 189 fit the +63 per tier pattern).
Moderator
duckamuck
Profile Joined January 2011
Norway12 Posts
February 23 2011 08:21 GMT
#880
On February 23 2011 07:15 Excalibur_Z wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 23 2011 06:17 duckamuck wrote:
This isn't really on topic, but I think this is the most suitable place.

Have anyone looked at the equation they put up at the panel discussion at Blizzcon? (look here
start at approx 2:00). I believe it's highly relevant for the MMR calculation part, and also useful for those thinking this is based on easy math.





That's actually their "race balance" equation, which is what they use each time a P player beats a Z player on X map. They haven't revealed their matchmaking calculation (though it's probably not as complex).


I know its for balancing, but if I interpret things correctly, this also contains information about the two players skill. Now this is a posterior probability they are calculating, and thus we can see the priors they are using (in this case all gaussian based in seems) and updating these with the nre data (the result of the game). So in general, I would say that this equation should be quite similiar to what goes on in the matchmaking process. Im without my comp atm due to hardware breakdown, so I havent been able to run some simulation on the equation yet, but I intend to do so as soon as Im in business again.
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