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Twinkle Toes
United States3605 Posts
![[image loading]](https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/8stoCx8djDqnkkI892mnwgEhpzE=/0x0:3000x2000/920x613/filters:focal(1260x760:1740x1240)/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/57787535/HardenKOC_Getty_Ringer.0.jpg) Great stuff about Harden/Paul/Rockets https://www.theringer.com/nba/2017/11/29/16713562/james-harden-houston-rockets-chris-paul The Harden Show is the best program on television. The Beard steps back on defenders, drains contested 3s, whips passes for corner 3s, tosses lob dunks, and make it all look so easy. “Last year, I thought he was unbelievable,” D’Antoni said recently. “I don’t know what he is this year. He’s gone up another level.” | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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JimmyJRaynor
Canada16711 Posts
OG Anunoby is the best 20 year old in the NBA after the season is 25% complete ![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/o4n1MnJ.jpg) Hands up all those that called that one?  People shouldn't be worried about Ball's very poor shooting. If he is willing to put in the work he can reconstruct his shooting mechanics and make himself a decent shooter. If Aaron Gordon can develop a great shot.. any one can. Gordon's 3-point % is higher than his college FT%. The best 19, 20, and 21 year olds all play in the Eastern Conference. Tatum, Anunoby, Simmons. I think when Fultz comes back healthy and gets himself back into playing shape he'll be the 2nd best 19 year old in the NBA. | ||
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Nemireck
Canada1875 Posts
On December 02 2017 00:35 JimmiC wrote: I was saying that the analytics you presented underrate DD and lowry. I was using team success and the changing players around them, as well as players looking better with them then after (patterson and so on). You are basically using the religion argument. Person a "i dont belive" person b " but in the bible/koran/whatever it says x" person a " but i dont belive in your book" person b "but have you read this passage from my book it proves it" Lol *and no i dont hate all analytics i just have done enough reading on it in regards to basketball to knownthat the catch alls dont catch all. And you need to dive deeper to get the whole story It's not like JJ's assessment of DeRozan is wrong though... He's a mid-range specialist that doesn't score efficiently and sucks on defense. This year he's started passing more which has helped his offensive efficiency, but his weak D is still a major problem that holds him back from being great. Once playoffs roll around it's 50/50 whether he'll even get his 20/game because his scoring style tends to get shut down in the post-season... Hopefully his work on improving his passing and play-making help his playoff performance this year, but his complete lack of ability (or effort, fucked if I know the reason he's terrible) on D is still going to be a glaring weakness against good teams. With JV on the floor it's basically 5on3 for the other team on offence. Patterson's numbers started to fall off a cliff last year after his knee injury. I would probably lean more towards that injury leading to his decline more than the change of scenery. Also I'm not sure OKC's bench is any good, and as you've correctly noted, being around better players can have the effect of improving a player's numbers, no matter how much a stat tries to isolate an individual's performance. | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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JimmyJRaynor
Canada16711 Posts
Patterson's knee was fucked long before he left Toronto and it was the turning point in his performance last season. and its still fucked now. which is why his performance is down. xRAPM is accurately measuring Patterson's crappy performance. What Stats Can and Can Not Predict Derozan played like total shit 2 weeks ago. probably the worst game i've seen in 4 years by DD. do you remember that game? i do. no stat predicted it. not one. stats can't predict family problems. doesn't make a certain stat a bad one. Derozan's Defense Defensive Real Plus/Minus, Defensive Points Saved, Field-Goal Percentage Differential,On/Off Differential all indicate he is a poor defender. then check out 82games.com and every team mate he has ever had. And check out what happens to their defensive rating in DD's presence... then when they are not paired with DD. Again, DD is below average. Plus, just watch him play. Out of VanVleet, Lowry, Wright, Powell and DD... .DD is the worst by a big margin. All of the other guys are smarter defenders than DD. | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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JimmyJRaynor
Canada16711 Posts
here was my contribution. https://www.reddit.com/r/timberwolves/comments/7gpb38/give_jones_more_minutes_after_teague_returns/ Tyus Jones' xRAPM is now better than Jeff Teague's. I'm impressed by Jones improvement and xRAPM's ability to capture that improvement. If Teague plays tonight it'll be interesting to see how many minutes Jones gets. I hope he gets more minutes than he did before Teague got hurt. On December 02 2017 04:10 JimmiC wrote: that you dont understand or put context too, to try to convince me. actually i've been given you lessons on how to use xRAPM. like with that Korver thing. At least u tried.. i'll give you that; and Korver is an interesting find by you ... even in limited minutes Korver is doing great. good signing by Cleveland. i'm all about context. Demar's worst game in 4 years occurred the night after his long time gf and mother of his 2 kids moved out and separated. i hope the guy is ok. On December 02 2017 08:08 JimmiC wrote: I never said DeRozens d is good. apology accepted. | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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JimmyJRaynor
Canada16711 Posts
my request for more minutes for Jones is due to watching him play lately. read my reddit post. its not due to xRAPM. no where do i mention his xRAPM in my request for him to get more minutes. And, in fact, at the time of the request for more minutes for his xRAPM was worse than Teague's xRAPM. so ya. their respective xRAPMs are just an interesting coincidence. as i've already stated. the comparison between players' xRAPMs weakens as their difference in minutes increases. if i thought Jones was better than Teague i'd want Jones to start. and i don't. i just want Jones to get more minutes. as i said in my post .. if his improvement continues he'll be as good or better than Teague in 1 year. i got some pretty detailed feedback I'm going to broaden this up a little in saying that it isn't necessarily about the minutes, but more so, rotations and who's on the court with who. Isolating Tyus first, when Thibs rolls out his archaic, full platoon swaps, it leaves Tyus on the court with Crawford. Tyus almost always defers to Crawford, pigeonholing himself into the role of a 3 point shooter. Not his ideal role. Tyus has shown value in running our offense, an area that he even surpasses Teague. In the bench lineup, Crawford basically just runs a 2-man, PnR game, great if he's hot, not so great if he's not. Everyone else stands around and we get our lazy looking offense. Crawford needs those shots to be effective, but it renders Tyus obsolete. We see this with the starters too. Teague doesn't initiate the offense nearly as well because, he has more of a mind towards scoring himself. Not knocking Teague at all, he is a good scorer, but Tyus just doesn't call his own number nearly as often. It's not only Jeff either. Wiggins and Butler do this when they bring the ball up as well. Often times ~10 seconds is wasted as the ball handler looks to score themselves. If its not there, we are out of sync without time to reset the offense. Queue a bad iso look as the shot clock expires. Tyus mixing in with the starters gets the ball moving and seems to open their eyes up to more passing. It's like when Tyus has the ball players cut more because they know he's looking. Throw Bjelly in with the starters and you have a guy that spaces the floor and is open for kickouts. Butler with the bench allows him to playmake. Thibs is doing it a little more lately. I've seen Wiggins stagger a little with the bench, although, I'd prefer if that was Butler. Probably a lot of incomplete thoughts, but I hope the point comes across. these guys in the thread obviously follow minnesota a lot more closely than i do. | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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JimmyJRaynor
Canada16711 Posts
so if you go back through my Kyle Anderson analysis, my Korver comment.. etc.. you can't compare limited minutes players to heavy minutes players. i've said that like 5 times at least. so you should know that by now. Kyle Anderson's 15 minute-a-game DRPM is better than Leonard's 32 minute-a-game DRPM... check out my analysis of why that is the case. the general rule is: the bigger the difference in minutes per game the weaker the comparison is. | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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JimmyJRaynor
Canada16711 Posts
On December 02 2017 09:05 JimmiC wrote: The way xRAPM is calculated it cant, at least not accurately show improvement over a couple of games. This is a big reason of why they dont even post the site on the website for 20 games. Its honestly shocking with how much you love it how little about it you understand. that is incorrect. it gets updated 2 times a week and the #s change on each update.. and sometimes significantly. especially when Jones only has a small # of minutes compiled this year because he plays ~12 minutes a game. Jones #s changed significantly because he went from 13 minutes a game to 40 minutes a game. and those 120 minutes he played in 1 week was a huge. Lowry's shooting has been off the charts the last 2 weeks... his ORPM has gone way up. | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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JimmyJRaynor
Canada16711 Posts
Wiggins went from 25th best starting SF to 15th best starting small forward in 3 weeks. FVV's #s have been all over the place all year. Before Teague got hurt Jones only played 240 minutes. In a short span Jones played 160 minutes and he played great. the weight of 240 is still more .. but 160 great minutes when you've only got 240 under your belt can make for a big change. if the #s hardly changed at all there would be less updates.. and its updated 2 times per week because people want the latest #s and because the #s change every few days. Jones #s are way up since he started getting starter minutes. These #s are like batting average in MLB. start of the year you can see big swings. end of the year when you have 600 ABs you won't see your batting average change much after a hot week of great hitting. so, Near the end of the year when Lowry has played 3000 minutes a hot week or 2 of great shooting won't change much in his #s. Near the start of the year when Lowry has not played many minutes his #s can change a lot after 1 or 2 hot weeks. The first couple of weeks of this year's xRAPM saw some monster changes in #s. as expected. | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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JimmyJRaynor
Canada16711 Posts
other's #s i've listed have changed huge. On December 02 2017 10:09 JimmiC wrote: Your "it changed lots so it's good" is actually showing that there is not enough info so it's moving lots because it has not stabilized. it is good. you'd rather see Lowry's #s go down? you'd rather see Jones #s get worse? #s going up is a positive indicator. any how, you've acknowledged big # changes happen. so that topic is closed. On December 02 2017 10:09 JimmiC wrote: They update for people like you who use it like a ranking system, even though they say not too, and so they can write articles about it. if the players play similar minutes you can make comparisons. the bigger the discrepancy in minutes the weaker the quality of the comparison is. u need same position.. similar minutes per game. So, Kawhi Leonard was a better defender than Andrew Wiggins in 2016-17. Jeremias Engelmann, the author of xRAPM, uses it to rank starters in the exact same way i do. | ||
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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