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NBA Season 2017-2018 - Page 43

Forum Index > Sports
Post a Reply
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Twinkle Toes
Profile Joined May 2012
United States3605 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-12-01 07:10:39
December 01 2017 07:07 GMT
#841
[image loading]

Great stuff about Harden/Paul/Rockets

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2017/11/29/16713562/james-harden-houston-rockets-chris-paul

The Harden Show is the best program on television. The Beard steps back on defenders, drains contested 3s, whips passes for corner 3s, tosses lob dunks, and make it all look so easy. “Last year, I thought he was unbelievable,” D’Antoni said recently. “I don’t know what he is this year. He’s gone up another level.”
Bisu - INnoVation - Dark - Rogue - Stats
JimmiC
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
Canada22817 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-12-01 15:36:55
December 01 2017 15:35 GMT
#842
--- Nuked ---
JimmyJRaynor
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
Canada18059 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-12-01 16:42:32
December 01 2017 16:00 GMT
#843
judicious use of the best analytics accurately represent both players regular season performance. Lowry is very good, bordering on excellent. DD is average to slightly below average. Lowry's playoff performance declines substantially because he is always hurt or recovering from an injury going into the playoffs. Derozan's playoff performance is congruent with his regular season performance

OG Anunoby is the best 20 year old in the NBA after the season is 25% complete
[image loading]

Hands up all those that called that one?

People shouldn't be worried about Ball's very poor shooting. If he is willing to put in the work he can reconstruct his shooting mechanics and make himself a decent shooter. If Aaron Gordon can develop a great shot.. any one can. Gordon's 3-point % is higher than his college FT%.

The best 19, 20, and 21 year olds all play in the Eastern Conference. Tatum, Anunoby, Simmons. I think when Fultz comes back healthy and gets himself back into playing shape he'll be the 2nd best 19 year old in the NBA.
Ray Kassar To David Crane : "you're no more important to Atari than the factory workers assembling the cartridges"
Nemireck
Profile Joined October 2010
Canada1875 Posts
December 01 2017 18:32 GMT
#844
On December 02 2017 00:35 JimmiC wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 01 2017 15:07 JimmyJRaynor wrote:
Jokic badly sprained his ankle tonight. big loss for Denver.
On December 01 2017 14:56 JimmiC wrote:
On December 01 2017 11:15 JimmyJRaynor wrote:
On December 01 2017 11:01 JimmiC wrote:
You blindly follow the one stat and dont bother to find out its weaknesses.

i employ a multitude of statistical methods along with direct observation. Many, many defensive metrics indicate DD isn't good on defense. Plus I watch the games. Out of all Toronto guards DD is the worst. Want to see some decent defense from a SG? try watching Wright or Powell.
Out of Lowry, Wright ( when he plays guard), Van Vleet, Powell, and DD.. DD is the worst.

Here is DD's on/off... it ain't good. i've got lots more where that came from.


In fact even though patterson and other people you were pumpin up based on that were traded and their numbers fell off a cliff. Showing it had more to do with situation then personal impact.

PPat's #s started falling last year when he hurt his knee. they've continued to remain low as he struggles with a bad knee. His decline in #s started long before he left the Raptors.



This is classic you. I didn't say DD is good at defense, great argument of umm... ???? you might want to try reading the words that are written for what they say, not what you assume they say.

what r u trying to say? u stated i only go by 1 stat. u got a 2nd stat.
as for the rest of it...
My assessment of Derozan is independent of whatever it is you are saying about the guy.

Demar Derozan is a below average defender and the worst guard Toronto has for defense. That's from my direct observation. It is easy to observe directly because its not close.

Various defense metrics indicate DD is a below average guard on defense. I use RPM because its expressed quickly in 1 number. However, you can look bat the 5 most used Metrics and then go to 82games.com and see what the defensive rating is for all of the 5 man lineups Derozan is part of.


I was saying that the analytics you presented underrate DD and lowry. I was using team success and the changing players around them, as well as players looking better with them then after (patterson and so on).

You are basically using the religion argument. Person a "i dont belive" person b " but in the bible/koran/whatever it says x" person a " but i dont belive in your book" person b "but have you read this passage from my book it proves it"

Lol

*and no i dont hate all analytics i just have done enough reading on it in regards to basketball to knownthat the catch alls dont catch all. And you need to dive deeper to get the whole story


It's not like JJ's assessment of DeRozan is wrong though... He's a mid-range specialist that doesn't score efficiently and sucks on defense.

This year he's started passing more which has helped his offensive efficiency, but his weak D is still a major problem that holds him back from being great. Once playoffs roll around it's 50/50 whether he'll even get his 20/game because his scoring style tends to get shut down in the post-season... Hopefully his work on improving his passing and play-making help his playoff performance this year, but his complete lack of ability (or effort, fucked if I know the reason he's terrible) on D is still going to be a glaring weakness against good teams. With JV on the floor it's basically 5on3 for the other team on offence.

Patterson's numbers started to fall off a cliff last year after his knee injury. I would probably lean more towards that injury leading to his decline more than the change of scenery. Also I'm not sure OKC's bench is any good, and as you've correctly noted, being around better players can have the effect of improving a player's numbers, no matter how much a stat tries to isolate an individual's performance.
Teamwork is awesome... As long as your team is doing all the work!
JimmiC
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
Canada22817 Posts
December 01 2017 19:10 GMT
#845
--- Nuked ---
JimmiC
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
Canada22817 Posts
December 01 2017 19:34 GMT
#846
--- Nuked ---
JimmyJRaynor
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
Canada18059 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-12-01 20:12:18
December 01 2017 20:00 GMT
#847
Patterson's knee is fucked. i already told you that. he shot 27% in last year's playoffs and hobbled around for only 20 minutes a game. Until then he was a steady shooter and an all around solid player.

Patterson's knee was fucked long before he left Toronto and it was the turning point in his performance last season. and its still fucked now. which is why his performance is down.

xRAPM is accurately measuring Patterson's crappy performance.

What Stats Can and Can Not Predict
Derozan played like total shit 2 weeks ago. probably the worst game i've seen in 4 years by DD. do you remember that game? i do. no stat predicted it. not one. stats can't predict family problems. doesn't make a certain stat a bad one.

Derozan's Defense
Defensive Real Plus/Minus, Defensive Points Saved, Field-Goal Percentage Differential,On/Off Differential all indicate he is a poor defender.

then check out 82games.com and every team mate he has ever had. And check out what happens to their defensive rating in DD's presence... then when they are not paired with DD.

Again, DD is below average.

Plus, just watch him play. Out of VanVleet, Lowry, Wright, Powell and DD... .DD is the worst by a big margin. All of the other guys are smarter defenders than DD.
Ray Kassar To David Crane : "you're no more important to Atari than the factory workers assembling the cartridges"
JimmiC
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
Canada22817 Posts
December 01 2017 23:08 GMT
#848
--- Nuked ---
JimmyJRaynor
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
Canada18059 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-12-01 23:25:45
December 01 2017 23:17 GMT
#849
the Minnesota Timberwolves subreddit is becoming a Tyus Jones love-fest. he has been very, very good lately.

here was my contribution.
https://www.reddit.com/r/timberwolves/comments/7gpb38/give_jones_more_minutes_after_teague_returns/

Tyus Jones' xRAPM is now better than Jeff Teague's. I'm impressed by Jones improvement and xRAPM's ability to capture that improvement.

If Teague plays tonight it'll be interesting to see how many minutes Jones gets. I hope he gets more minutes than he did before Teague got hurt.

On December 02 2017 04:10 JimmiC wrote:
that you dont understand or put context too, to try to convince me.

actually i've been given you lessons on how to use xRAPM. like with that Korver thing. At least u tried.. i'll give you that; and Korver is an interesting find by you ... even in limited minutes Korver is doing great. good signing by Cleveland.

i'm all about context. Demar's worst game in 4 years occurred the night after his long time gf and mother of his 2 kids moved out and separated. i hope the guy is ok.
On December 02 2017 08:08 JimmiC wrote:
I never said DeRozens d is good.

apology accepted.
Ray Kassar To David Crane : "you're no more important to Atari than the factory workers assembling the cartridges"
JimmiC
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
Canada22817 Posts
December 01 2017 23:26 GMT
#850
--- Nuked ---
JimmyJRaynor
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
Canada18059 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-12-01 23:51:16
December 01 2017 23:38 GMT
#851
context drop.

my request for more minutes for Jones is due to watching him play lately. read my reddit post. its not due to xRAPM. no where do i mention his xRAPM in my request for him to get more minutes. And, in fact, at the time of the request for more minutes for his xRAPM was worse than Teague's xRAPM. so ya.

their respective xRAPMs are just an interesting coincidence. as i've already stated. the comparison between players' xRAPMs weakens as their difference in minutes increases.

if i thought Jones was better than Teague i'd want Jones to start. and i don't. i just want Jones to get more minutes. as i said in my post .. if his improvement continues he'll be as good or better than Teague in 1 year.

i got some pretty detailed feedback

I'm going to broaden this up a little in saying that it isn't necessarily about the minutes, but more so, rotations and who's on the court with who.
Isolating Tyus first, when Thibs rolls out his archaic, full platoon swaps, it leaves Tyus on the court with Crawford. Tyus almost always defers to Crawford, pigeonholing himself into the role of a 3 point shooter. Not his ideal role. Tyus has shown value in running our offense, an area that he even surpasses Teague. In the bench lineup, Crawford basically just runs a 2-man, PnR game, great if he's hot, not so great if he's not. Everyone else stands around and we get our lazy looking offense. Crawford needs those shots to be effective, but it renders Tyus obsolete.
We see this with the starters too. Teague doesn't initiate the offense nearly as well because, he has more of a mind towards scoring himself. Not knocking Teague at all, he is a good scorer, but Tyus just doesn't call his own number nearly as often. It's not only Jeff either. Wiggins and Butler do this when they bring the ball up as well. Often times ~10 seconds is wasted as the ball handler looks to score themselves. If its not there, we are out of sync without time to reset the offense. Queue a bad iso look as the shot clock expires.
Tyus mixing in with the starters gets the ball moving and seems to open their eyes up to more passing. It's like when Tyus has the ball players cut more because they know he's looking. Throw Bjelly in with the starters and you have a guy that spaces the floor and is open for kickouts. Butler with the bench allows him to playmake. Thibs is doing it a little more lately. I've seen Wiggins stagger a little with the bench, although, I'd prefer if that was Butler.
Probably a lot of incomplete thoughts, but I hope the point comes across.


these guys in the thread obviously follow minnesota a lot more closely than i do.

Ray Kassar To David Crane : "you're no more important to Atari than the factory workers assembling the cartridges"
JimmiC
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
Canada22817 Posts
December 01 2017 23:49 GMT
#852
--- Nuked ---
JimmyJRaynor
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
Canada18059 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-12-01 23:56:55
December 01 2017 23:51 GMT
#853
it was a separated paragraph. at no time did i try to say it proves Jones is better than Teague. because it doesn't. it is interesting that Jones xRAPM has skyrocketed though. xRAPM is capturing his improvement nicely. Jones is "replacing" Teague's minutes because Teague is hurt... and Teague can not play. When Teague is healthy he should go back to starting.

so if you go back through my Kyle Anderson analysis, my Korver comment.. etc.. you can't compare limited minutes players to heavy minutes players. i've said that like 5 times at least. so you should know that by now. Kyle Anderson's 15 minute-a-game DRPM is better than Leonard's 32 minute-a-game DRPM... check out my analysis of why that is the case.

the general rule is: the bigger the difference in minutes per game the weaker the comparison is.
Ray Kassar To David Crane : "you're no more important to Atari than the factory workers assembling the cartridges"
JimmiC
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
Canada22817 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-12-02 00:12:15
December 02 2017 00:05 GMT
#854
--- Nuked ---
JimmyJRaynor
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
Canada18059 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-12-02 00:28:13
December 02 2017 00:26 GMT
#855
On December 02 2017 09:05 JimmiC wrote:
The way xRAPM is calculated it cant, at least not accurately show improvement over a couple of games. This is a big reason of why they dont even post the site on the website for 20 games.

Its honestly shocking with how much you love it how little about it you understand.

that is incorrect.
it gets updated 2 times a week and the #s change on each update.. and sometimes significantly.

especially when Jones only has a small # of minutes compiled this year because he plays ~12 minutes a game.

Jones #s changed significantly because he went from 13 minutes a game to 40 minutes a game. and those 120 minutes he played in 1 week was a huge.

Lowry's shooting has been off the charts the last 2 weeks... his ORPM has gone way up.
Ray Kassar To David Crane : "you're no more important to Atari than the factory workers assembling the cartridges"
JimmiC
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
Canada22817 Posts
December 02 2017 00:46 GMT
#856
--- Nuked ---
JimmyJRaynor
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
Canada18059 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-12-02 01:08:25
December 02 2017 00:55 GMT
#857
Lowry's ORPM went from 2.6 to 4.51 in 2 weeks.
Wiggins went from 25th best starting SF to 15th best starting small forward in 3 weeks.
FVV's #s have been all over the place all year.

Before Teague got hurt Jones only played 240 minutes. In a short span Jones played 160 minutes and he played great. the weight of 240 is still more .. but 160 great minutes when you've only got 240 under your belt can make for a big change.

if the #s hardly changed at all there would be less updates.. and its updated 2 times per week because people want the latest #s and because the #s change every few days.

Jones #s are way up since he started getting starter minutes.

These #s are like batting average in MLB. start of the year you can see big swings. end of the year when you have 600 ABs you won't see your batting average change much after a hot week of great hitting.

so, Near the end of the year when Lowry has played 3000 minutes a hot week or 2 of great shooting won't change much in his #s. Near the start of the year when Lowry has not played many minutes his #s can change a lot after 1 or 2 hot weeks.

The first couple of weeks of this year's xRAPM saw some monster changes in #s. as expected.
Ray Kassar To David Crane : "you're no more important to Atari than the factory workers assembling the cartridges"
JimmiC
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
Canada22817 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-12-02 01:14:04
December 02 2017 01:09 GMT
#858
--- Nuked ---
JimmyJRaynor
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
Canada18059 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-12-02 02:45:14
December 02 2017 01:13 GMT
#859
Fultz #s will change big time. they'll fluctuate huge...guaranteed.
other's #s i've listed have changed huge.
On December 02 2017 10:09 JimmiC wrote:
Your "it changed lots so it's good" is actually showing that there is not enough info so it's moving lots because it has not stabilized.

it is good. you'd rather see Lowry's #s go down?
you'd rather see Jones #s get worse?

#s going up is a positive indicator.

any how, you've acknowledged big # changes happen. so that topic is closed.

On December 02 2017 10:09 JimmiC wrote:
They update for people like you who use it like a ranking system, even though they say not too, and so they can write articles about it.

if the players play similar minutes you can make comparisons. the bigger the discrepancy in minutes the weaker the quality of the comparison is. u need same position.. similar minutes per game.
So, Kawhi Leonard was a better defender than Andrew Wiggins in 2016-17.

Jeremias Engelmann, the author of xRAPM, uses it to rank starters in the exact same way i do.
Ray Kassar To David Crane : "you're no more important to Atari than the factory workers assembling the cartridges"
JimmiC
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
Canada22817 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-12-02 03:23:13
December 02 2017 03:05 GMT
#860
--- Nuked ---
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