EPTNBA Offseason 2017 - Page 42
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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Twinkle Toes
United States3605 Posts
I agree JimmyC, it's a strange sad world we live in. | ||
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cLutZ
United States19574 Posts
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BlackJack
United States10568 Posts
On July 21 2017 12:54 Keyboard Warrior wrote: Ask and you shall receive GAME WINNING/TYING POSSESSIONS STATISTICS ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/tFYIzgO.jpg) notes:
CONCLUSION: lebron among superstars is a epic bad clutch situation scorer (33%) (bryant 53%, durant 62%, harden 50%, westbrook 20% LOL), and is epic terrible playmaker at clutch vs. other playmakers (26%) (Kidd 50%, Nash 52%, Stockton 61%, Paul 44%) Define your parameters. "Game winning/tying possessions statistics" means different things to different people. If a player makes a shot with 3 minutes left in the game to take the lead and the other team never scores again is that a game winning shot that he made? Are we talking strictly buzzer beaters that go in the basket with 0.0 seconds remaining? Are we talking regular season? Playoffs? How are we supposed to verify your numbers when we don't even know what your numbers are saying? As you see in my reply to your last post http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/sports/523843-nba-offseason-2017?page=34#674 I have clearly defined my parameters. Oddly enough my data with clearly defined parameters show LeBron as having a better conversion rate on game tying/leading shots with 24 and 60 seconds remaining in a game. I look forward to your reply because I'm really curious what parameters you used that would make LeBron 3/9 and Kobe 23/43. Kobe is a 45% shooter on his career and every statistic I have seen of his crunch time numbers has him shooting even lower than his average. Your numbers are hard to believe. | ||
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RowdierBob
Australia13008 Posts
For example, an analysis of Kobe's clutch performance was done a while back: http://www.espn.com.au/blog/truehoop/post/_/id/24200/the-truth-about-kobe-bryant-in-crunch-time ESPN Stats & Information's Alok Pattani dug through 15 years of NBA data (see table below) -- Bryant's entire career, regular season and playoffs -- and found that Bryant has attempted 115 shots in the final 24 seconds of a game in which the Lakers were tied or trailed by two or fewer points. He connected on 36, and missed 79 times. Bryant shoots more than most, passes less and racks up misses at an all-time rate. There is no measure, other than YouTube highlights and folklore, by which he's the best scorer in crunch time. {edit--I see your numbers seem to focus on just game winning/tying shots, but just curious where those numbers come from. Is there a source you can cite?] | ||
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Keyboard Warrior
United States1178 Posts
my sources are nba play by play stats, basketball reference, league pass, and youtube videos. what i intended to find out was final possessions that are game winning or tying shots. my method was i looked at all the games where there was a 1pt, 2pt, 3pt, 4pt lead, or tied and went to ot. i then looked at the play by play data and looked at the final point, then, when the game falls within the category, i watched the videos to evaluate the final possession. looking at your statistics, i realized that i should have extended beyond the literal buzzer beater since the final point could happen 20 or 30 or 60 seconds before end of game. if i did this, i would have gotten the same numbers you posted. but i think my method and results is valid as it is, only that clutch here is definitely buzzer beater possession. I might do the final 24 second data when i have time for it. | ||
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Scarecrow
Korea (South)9172 Posts
Your conclusion is also pretty bad, looking at %'s by guys on sample sizes of less than 10... I'm no Westbrook fan, but 20% shooting on 5 shots doesn't mean anything. You do know what variance is right? | ||
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BlackJack
United States10568 Posts
On July 27 2017 22:23 Keyboard Warrior wrote: Thanks to Balckjack and RowdeBob for asking. i really wanted to share this since a lot of effort is put into it, and i hope i did the correct method, as I am not a science of statistics person. anyway, i explained it last page. my sources are nba play by play stats, basketball reference, league pass, and youtube videos. what i intended to find out was final possessions that are game winning or tying shots. my method was i looked at all the games where there was a 1pt, 2pt, 3pt, 4pt lead, or tied and went to ot. i then looked at the play by play data and looked at the final point, then, when the game falls within the category, i watched the videos to evaluate the final possession. looking at your statistics, i realized that i should have extended beyond the literal buzzer beater since the final point could happen 20 or 30 or 60 seconds before end of game. if i did this, i would have gotten the same numbers you posted. but i think my method and results is valid as it is, only that clutch here is definitely buzzer beater possession. I might do the final 24 second data when i have time for it. I appreciate the effort but when your numbers are off it's a wasted effort. Your method seems very laborious. It took me 1-2 hours to put together Kobe/LeBrons numbers using basketball reference's shot finder. Just set the parameters and run the search. For example I can search for shots to tie or take the lead with :10 left in 4th/OT for players on the Cavs and I get https://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/shot_finder.cgi?request=1&match=play&year_id=2017&game_num_min=0&game_num_max=99&is_playoffs=N&team_id=CLE&q4=Y&q5=Y&time_remain_minutes=0&time_remain_seconds=10&time_remain_comp=le&is_tying=Y&is_go_ahead=Y&order_by=fg#stats::none Instantly we can see LeBron was 1-3 last season on shots in the final 10 seconds to win/tie the game. Takes 5 seconds to get that stat and you don't have to watch any video. | ||
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Keyboard Warrior
United States1178 Posts
On July 28 2017 00:05 Scarecrow wrote: Your numbers for kobe don't even remotely match up with any other clutch study I've seen (done by actual stats guys). There's just no way he's 23 makes and 20 misses when his overall clutch numbers are so bad, he'd have to be shooting some ridiculously low % on shots outside your parameters to even get close to 54%. At best it seems like you are cherry picking to make Lebron look bad in the clutch, and to make Kobe look like some sort of clutch god, which he's not. Your conclusion is also pretty bad, looking at %'s by guys on sample sizes of less than 10... I'm no Westbrook fan, but 20% shooting on 5 shots doesn't mean anything. You do know what variance is right? I am sorry but what are you referring to? As far as I have explained all throughout, my goal was to post the data and I made no conclusions about Westbrook, who is my idol since we have a similar game (1-2 guard who is ball dominant). In my previous post of Kobe vs. Lebron in clutch, many people made the suggestion to include score-first players, and I think it is a reasonable suggestion that is why I included him, Durant and other scorers who would provide context for Lebron's bad numbers. Also, I do not understand why you are claiming Kobe is clutch god? Care to elaborate? Maybe you are misinterpreting my point and thus making your confused answer based on this? As I have previously respectfully stated, I openly expressed the goal was to look for gamewinning/tying final possessions. No cherry picking was done, and I can say that objectively and the data will show it.. Finally, I agree with RowderBob. Maybe i have to extend it to the final shot, which could extend further back 20 or so seconds. To RowderBob, thanks for the constructive suggestion mate. Maybe i missed some numbers, but I've looked at them all and the data aligns. My hypothesis for this discrepancy is that, i think, for example when Kobe's shot is taken and missed and there is say 10 more seconds left, and then there is another shot by at the end of regulation, Kobe's miss won't be recorded since in this measurement it is not considered as the final possession of the game. But i wholeheartedly agree and thanks for that, I will update the data accordingly. Also, i really had to watch the vids, as that was the primary goal of this statistics, to see the "playmakers" and how they deal with final possessions, the quality of their offense, how they manipulate defense, and the quality of their passes.it was indeed laborious but it was necessary since no statistics will reflect that. I'm glad I did it as well, since I saw firsthand that Stockton and Kidd are playmaking gods! Lebron on the otherhand is meh to good. His "playmaking" is practically just ram to the paint and whip pass to the wing. that's it 99% of the time. He has no sneaky defense dismantling like Stockton or Kidd, and definitely no passes that are 3 steps ahead of the development of the play that we usually when we talk about real playmakers - see Stockton, Kidd, Magic, Paul, etc. He might as well just proceed with the layup being that close to the hoop already. That's my honest and respectful comment. I hope we can have a decent and anger/insult-free discussion on this matter and avoid childish trollish terminologies like "lol" "noob". Thanks in advance. | ||
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darthfoley
United States8003 Posts
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zev318
Canada4306 Posts
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Jerubaal
United States7684 Posts
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Twinkle Toes
United States3605 Posts
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Jerubaal
United States7684 Posts
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khouji
United States10 Posts
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zev318
Canada4306 Posts
On July 29 2017 11:57 khouji wrote: How I wish Kyrie will join the Spurs. As we all know that Spurs is a good defensive team and what they lacking is some offensive power. Kyrie will be a perfect match to them, plus his attitude being humble fit the team. almost certainly a 3rd team will be needed for that to happen. which team would want LMA? | ||
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cLutZ
United States19574 Posts
Jazz: http://www.espn.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=y93cweg9 Heat (Actually looks good): http://www.espn.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=ycsq8ug7 Knicks (Melooo!): http://www.espn.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=ycxgn9kf Magic (poo poo): http://www.espn.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=yb5h4jgn | ||
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ghostmaster93
155 Posts
On July 25 2017 09:04 Keyboard Warrior wrote: Lol you idiot. Do you even know what you are talking about? The conclusion is the direct result of the statistics. And what small sample size are you blabbing over? The data that i posted is all the data there is. Sources are nba.com stats, bballreference, and nba league pass and yt vids. first i looked for ALL po games that had 1 or 2 pt win margin, and overtime. the i looked at game distribution is there was a game winning or tying shot. then i watched the game to see the possession. And have you seen the other post about lebron in clutch situations? @Keyboard Warrior: After reading all of your posts, firstly thank you for putting time to creat those tables. I hope that you could keep your manner in all posts (since you call me idiot in your reply) As for my part, when I said your sample size is quite small, what I really mean is that you cannot conclude the result if your total shots or pass of each player is less than 30. In your case, only Kobe Byrant has the number of total shots >30. Therefore, your comparision of Lebron and other players has no statistical meaning at all. Final words, I'm working as a data analyst and I have been in your situation several times, have assumptions, collect data to prove, process data, analyse data from multiple angles and then realize that I could not draw out any conclusions since the data set is too small. Your source is fine, your methodology of collecting data is good, however, you need to reconsider the definitions more broader, since your current definitions make your data set not big enough. | ||
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Jerubaal
United States7684 Posts
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cLutZ
United States19574 Posts
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