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Hey thanks! I can give you my thoughts on the two picks you question the most: Matthews and Freeman.
Ryan Matthews:
San Diego has come out and said that they are going to keep force feeding Matthews. This was after his fumble vs the cowboys last week. They seem to be fully invested in him, and if he can mitigate the fumbles he can be a very talented runner. He is the RB in san diego that will get the ball most often. They didnt play Matthews last night due to resting purposes. Likely he will just ride the bench or I will drop him when someone waivers a better player. I think if he does perform well he can either take the RB2 spot from Ellington or I now have a good bargaining chip for trades.
Devonta Freeman:
My ultimate sleeper pick. Technically they list him at 3rd RB, but its believed that is for motivation and not the truth. With Jackson being injury prone, Rodgers isnt as good. Its only a matter of time that Freeman becomes the starter. He is very fast, catches out of the backfield and he is putting together quite a good resume this preseason to be the starter if/when Jackson goes down.
edit: Tannehill dropped, Wright added. And what are your thoughts on my TEs? Risky but potentially explosive?
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Here's the thing on Mathews: He doesn't play a lot, and when he does, he's kind of blegh. I guess there's just other options that excite me more because he's going to be splitting a ton of time with Brown and Woodhead, and he seems to be perpetually injured.
I see your points on Freeman. I suppose I'm just wary of him because he's a rookie. A few years ago Isiah Pead was hyped up in the same way as the backup to Jackson in St. Louis and he's been a burnout (who may have just torn his ACL, poor guy).
I was talking FF with my cousin yesterday and he tipped me off to Rudolph. Apparently Norv Turner's TE's always perform above expectation and do well for themselves relative to their peers. I'm looking to get him in my leagues this year, so I like that pick you made. Ertz has good upside for being a reserve, mostly because the Bengals move the ball well and Jermaine Gresham isn't very good. I like your TEs on the whole.
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Fortunately for my pick on Freeman, I didnt spend a high pick on him. He can keep my bench warm for now. Matthews is a gamble pure and simple. One that I hope pays off. But my biggest gamble is Trent Richardson. Hes not looking too promising in this pre season though. Hope they start being creative with him.
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On August 16 2014 14:41 DyEnasTy wrote:
Ok so my leagues offline draft is officially over. I would like some honest thoughts on the team I assembled.
rnd 1: Matt Forte
rnd 2: Andre Ellington
rnd 3: Julio Jones
rnd 4: Keenan Allen
rnd 5: Micheal Crabtree
rnd 6: Brandin Cooks
rnd 7: Kyle Rudolph
rnd 8: Ryan Matthews
rnd 9: Tony Romo
rnd 10: Zach Ertz
rnd 11: Devonta Freeman
rnd 12: Trent Richardson
rnd 13:Ryan Tannehill
rnd 14: Matt Prater
rnd 15: Tampa Bay defense
I know I am weak at a couple positions. Most noticeably TE with Rudolph as my starter. A TE streak happened which took all the top TEs off the board right up to Witten being taken the pick before mine. I reached for Ellington, but no other RB seemed better in Rnd 2 than him with upside. Julio Jones is a bit of a risk with his foot but massive upside. Keenan Allen looks really good imo. I took Ryan Matthews in Rnd 8 O_O. How could I say no to a starting RB that late? Same with Richardson who I took in Rnd 12
I want to know, should I switch out TB defense with N Orleans before season starts? I pretty much flipped a coin mentally and went with TB. People picked defenses starting in round 8, and I didnt want to take a def/k till the last 2 rounds (which somehow I got Matt Prater???).
Edit: Some nice talent was left on the board. Noticeably Kendall Wright, Dwayne Bowe, Cecil Shorts, DeAndre Hopkins, Mike Evans, Hakeem Nicks, Jordan Matthews.
Anyone above that should be on my roster instead of who I currently own? Thanks guys, no one else I trust with advice outside of TL.
On August 17 2014 14:08 DyEnasTy wrote:Show nested quote +On August 17 2014 10:18 QuanticHawk wrote:
What position were you and what's the scoring settings and roster size. Hard to say much beyond that but Imo is rather go for a top wr at two than Ellington. He's probably 12th best br or worse. Coulda had a top five wr and jumped on an elite te before everyone I picked #5. And I know I passed on good WRs for Ellington (top ones left were Marshall and Brown), but my nagging gut kept telling me to get him. WRs got picked like crazy. I even reached a bit for Brandin Cooks because of it. edit: Roster is: 1 QB 2 RB 2 WR 1 TE 1 flex (wr/te/rb) 1 k 1 def 6 bench Scoring settings are: Passing Yards 25 yards per point Passing Touchdowns 4 Interceptions -1 Rushing Yards 10 yards per point Rushing Touchdowns 6 Reception Yards 10 yards per point Reception Touchdowns 6
I still definitely think think Ellington was a reach in the 2nd, and you'd have been better off picking a top 5 WR there and just hoping to hit it big later with a high risk high reward rb. A good general rule of thumb for fantasty is that you don't want to be caught on the tail end of runs. IE: Don't take the 12th RB off the board in a 10 man league when the top QBs/WRs/TEs are still all there. In your league, you probably could have safely bet that there would have been a couple 2RBs available for a few more rounds. You getting Romo late is a perfect example of this.
In essence, you're just practicing value over replacement. The replacement is your baseline. In a 10 person league, the replacement is the 10th ranked player at that position. So if you really wanted to organize it neatly, the baseline would be zero. Everyone above is a + number; below, -.
You can rank them by a couple of measures: Total points from the year before, avg points per week from the year before, projected points for the coming season, etc. Personally, I've always done average points per week, while eliminating backups who only played four games or something, and amending the list for guys whose situation drastically changed due to roster changes, moving teams etc.
I helped my brother for his draft recently. Inside the brackets are the average points per week for the #1 from last year, and the #16.
QB: (31.0/20.15) http://www.fftoday.com/stats/playerstats.php?Season=2013&GameWeek=&PosID=10&LeagueID=107644&order_by=FFPtsPerG&sort_order=DESC
RB: (25.5/14.3) http://www.fftoday.com/stats/playerstats.php?Season=2013&GameWeek=&PosID=20&LeagueID=107644
WR: (22.5/16.5) http://www.fftoday.com/stats/playerstats.php?Season=2013&GameWeek=&PosID=30&LeagueID=107644&order_by=FFPtsPerG&sort_order=DESC
TE: (19/0/10.7) http://www.fftoday.com/stats/playerstats.php?Season=2013&GameWeek=&PosID=40&LeagueID=107644&order_by=FFPtsPerG&sort_order=DESC
K: (9.9/7.4) http://www.fftoday.com/stats/playerstats.php?Season=2013&GameWeek=&PosID=80&LeagueID=107644&order_by=FFPtsPerG&sort_order=DESC
DEF: (9.4/5.4) http://www.fftoday.com/stats/playerstats.php?Season=2013&GameWeek=&PosID=99&LeagueID=107644&order_by=FFPtsPerG&sort_order=DESC
also, about cooks, at best, he turns out to be the #2 option on the saints. More than likely, he ends up as the #3 behind Graham and Colston. Generally, higher rounds (like 1-6), you want to go for guys who are sure bets, not rookies or players whose roster spot is in question. Someone like Cooks is a gamble. You probably could have had him the following round. If you went TE in that round, you probably got yourself a top guy since you said Witten was still on. Getting Freeman in the 11th is a good gamble. In a 10 qb league, there's really no reason to draft a backup. You are better served by taking another gamble player, hoping that at least one pans out.
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Yeah I agree I reached a couple times. And perhaps unnecessarily, especially on Cooks. I did hear quite a few sighs when I took Ellington though. Same with Richardson in rnd 11. When I took Cooks I started a rookie WR streak. I may have hit TE gold with Rudolph playing so well and if he stays healthy. I believe in Norv Turner!
If you think my team is a gamble then my leagues commish is a huge gambler:
starting RBs are Toby Gerhart/Doug Martin (reminder I am in a PPR league)
starting TE Ladarius Green
flex percy harvin
he also drafted Johnny Manziel, Josh Gordon, Andre Williams, Carlos Hyde.
A lot of IFs on that team if you ask me.
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I noticed Anquan Boldin in available. Should I swap Kendall Wright for him? Boldin had better stats than Wright last season, and week 1 faces the cowboys, he should shred that secondary.
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Blaine Gabbert is fucking brutal to watch.
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I was wondering. Am I the only person in the world that absolutely think Manziel is going to be a wash out in the NFL?
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2nd Worst City in CA8938 Posts
Trust me when I say, you are never the only person in the world who thinks anything. You could be thinking about how great it would be to get molested by the full Teletubbies cast while sniffing spicy ramen through your nose and having your earwax picked by Roger Goodell and I assure you, someone has already thought about it.
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On August 18 2014 07:34 Souma wrote:
Trust me when I say, you are never the only person in the world who thinks anything. You could be thinking about how great it would be to get molested by the full Teletubbies cast while sniffing spicy ramen through your nose and having your earwax picked by Roger Goodell and I assure you, someone has already thought about it.
I'm just making a hyperbole because everyone from ESPN to NFL network is seemingly on his dick. Not to mention no one has brought up his "rolling up a bill in a bathroom" (photographed getting read to snort some cocaine) on main network TV while marijuana gets the same penalties as PEDs. I can't stand how much undeserved praise and attention he is getting, feels like the next Tebow bs that the media cooks up.
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On August 18 2014 03:23 DyEnasTy wrote:
I noticed Anquan Boldin in available. Should I swap Kendall Wright for him? Boldin had better stats than Wright last season, and week 1 faces the cowboys, he should shred that secondary.
I don't think so, but ask xDaunt. He's the 49ers expert.
I forgot your league is PPR. Makes the Ellington pick a bit better I think.
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United States97276 Posts
I ended up going with LeSeasn McCoy as my keeper. Just seemed like too good to pass up. What's the speculation on the Eagles' offense with another year to prepare for it and no DeSean Jackson? Their division is still pretty weak.
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Well they have a rough schedule but they added Sproles and Maclin basically.
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On August 18 2014 02:05 DyEnasTy wrote:
Yeah I agree I reached a couple times. And perhaps unnecessarily, especially on Cooks. I did hear quite a few sighs when I took Ellington though. Same with Richardson in rnd 11. When I took Cooks I started a rookie WR streak. I may have hit TE gold with Rudolph playing so well and if he stays healthy. I believe in Norv Turner!
If you think my team is a gamble then my leagues commish is a huge gambler:
starting RBs are Toby Gerhart/Doug Martin (reminder I am in a PPR league)
starting TE Ladarius Green
flex percy harvin
he also drafted Johnny Manziel, Josh Gordon, Andre Williams, Carlos Hyde.
A lot of IFs on that team if you ask me.
hahah that's nuts
i mean ellington will probably be an ok #2 rb. but he will still probably comfortably fall into the 12-24 rankings of rbs. There's plenty of those dudes around. you could have had a stud wr to pair with Jones.
also fwiw, I think Crabtree being fully healthy majorly eats into Boldin's stats. Like probably take off at least 20 catches and a few hundred yards. SF doesn't throw that much, and when they do, it's half field reads to dudes like Crab and VD. I would still think Boldin is confortably the #3 ahead of Stevie Johnson.
Also, it's worth remembering that Sproles is now in Philly and should majorly eat into shady's catches. I got #1 in my league and I'm debating who to take.
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I actually had my live draft today. Little disappointed in my Lack of RB depth and my TE but I think otherwise the team is better than what I've drafted in the past.
+ Show Spoiler +
1. (11) Vincent Jackson (TB - WR)
2. (14) Giovani Bernard (Cin - RB)
3. (35) Victor Cruz (NYG - WR)
4. (38) Tom Brady (NE - QB)
5. (59) Andre Ellington (Ari - RB)
6. (62) Greg Olsen (Car - TE)
7. (83) Lamar Miller (Mia - RB)
8. (86) Matt Ryan (Atl - QB)
9. (107) Mike Wallace (Mia - WR)
10. (110) Knowshon Moreno (Mia - RB)
11. (131) Kansas City (KC - DEF)
12. (134) Coby Fleener (Ind - TE)
13. (155) Cecil Shorts III (Jax - WR)
14. (158) Kenny Britt (StL - WR)
15. (179) Ahmad Bradshaw (Ind - RB)
16. (182) Steven Hauschka (Sea - K)
Also, Vincent Jackson was my keeper, not my first pick. I kept him because other team kept Megatron, Bradon Marshal, Julio Jones, Demarius THomas, AJ Green, and Dez Bryant I felt the need to keep at least 1 potential WR1 and it was Jackson or some other not so notable pick(Gore, Chris Johnson, Charles Clay or Jason Witten).
The Lamar Miller pick was early, I knew I was going to take both him and Moreno as a package I just did it 2 rounds early.
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On August 18 2014 12:40 QuanticHawk wrote:Show nested quote +On August 18 2014 02:05 DyEnasTy wrote:
Yeah I agree I reached a couple times. And perhaps unnecessarily, especially on Cooks. I did hear quite a few sighs when I took Ellington though. Same with Richardson in rnd 11. When I took Cooks I started a rookie WR streak. I may have hit TE gold with Rudolph playing so well and if he stays healthy. I believe in Norv Turner!
If you think my team is a gamble then my leagues commish is a huge gambler:
starting RBs are Toby Gerhart/Doug Martin (reminder I am in a PPR league)
starting TE Ladarius Green
flex percy harvin
he also drafted Johnny Manziel, Josh Gordon, Andre Williams, Carlos Hyde.
A lot of IFs on that team if you ask me. hahah that's nuts i mean ellington will probably be an ok #2 rb. but he will still probably comfortably fall into the 12-24 rankings of rbs. There's plenty of those dudes around. you could have had a stud wr to pair with Jones. also fwiw, I think Crabtree being fully healthy majorly eats into Boldin's stats. Like probably take off at least 20 catches and a few hundred yards. SF doesn't throw that much, and when they do, it's half field reads to dudes like Crab and VD. I would still think Boldin is confortably the #3 ahead of Stevie Johnson. Also, it's worth remembering that Sproles is now in Philly and should majorly eat into shady's catches. I got #1 in my league and I'm debating who to take.
I do wish I had taken another top WR. But I really hated the range of rbs after Ellington, and I thought there was still a lot of depth/talent at wr. I consider him a rb2 with rb1 potential (partly because of being in a ppr league). I think his upside is massive. After the last of the top rbs went off the board I panicked and didnt want to be behind in the rb race. I am banking on Keenan Allen having a big year, and Julio Jones not getting injured. If so, my combo of Forte + Ellington should be ppr gold.
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Oops I just realized that I thought Ertz was Eifert earlier in this thread.
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my jets are looking fantastic wooo
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United States97276 Posts
So much hype for Johnny Football vs RG3 tonight!
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Edit: Never mind. Looks like we're good.
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EPT
