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Northern Ireland26891 Posts
On May 28 2025 08:58 Telephone wrote:
Yeah, where does DH Dallas compare to GSL in the GOAT conversation, since this event had all the vastly superior European players?
GOAT convo is dead. I just don’t see much possibility of anyone being able to make much movement given how the scene is going.
Maybe herO given he’s been largely carrying Toss. He’s by far the best in terms of players who came back from military so there’s that angle, maybe he can move up a spot or two in this era.
Clem can move up a bit but there’s nothing he can do, now, to genuinely enter GOAT territory. Even another dominant EWC win. Even being the only pro to ever really have an off-race matchup good enough to consistently play in whatever tournament. And I can’t see SC2’s pro scene going much beyond this year.
I’d definitely 100% rate Dallas above GSL. And not just because better players. GSL even when it clearly lacked a couple of the best in the world always had that prep angle that set it apart, that almost unique challenge versus every other tournament.
It barely has that anymore. I think we saw more mind games and smart prepared builds in the group stages than in the playoffs this time around, even if maybe not every player is quite at the same level. Playoffs weren’t much different from your usual weekender, you can’t prep on such a tight turnaround, versus a variety of opponents.
Also I mean the time gap wasn’t massive, I felt more players were clearly in better shape in Dallas than last GSL. Maru was on point, Reynor looked less rusty etc.
One is just seeing the consequences of EWC’s fucking genius idea to just delay giving the scene any certainty for half a year. Players are more rusty, GSLs have to be squashed into much smaller timeframes.
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I have to agree with you there. How about the last few GSLs that weren't this year, though? Or last Dreamhack dallas compared to all of the above?
I think that yet another all-korean ro4 further justifies the devaluing of region-locked tournaments, because even today, when someone could legitimately argue that some of the greatest players are in EU, it's hard to discredit just how dominant the Korean scene has been for the last 15 years.
And for some more bait (sorry WombaT, I really respect your opinion and all that you've done for the scene!), so the GOAT conversation is dead, and Rogue or maybe Maru is the GOAT of all time?
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Northern Ireland26891 Posts
On May 28 2025 10:34 Telephone wrote:
I have to agree with you there. How about the last few GSLs that weren't this year, though? Or last Dreamhack dallas compared to all of the above?
I think that yet another all-korean ro4 further justifies the devaluing of region-locked tournaments, because even today, when someone could legitimately argue that some of the greatest players are in EU, it's hard to discredit just how dominant the Korean scene has been for the last 15 years.
And for some more bait (sorry Wax, I really respect your opinion and all that you've done for the scene!), so the GOAT conversation is dead, and Rogue or maybe Maru is the GOAT of all time?
It’s pretty rare you get an all-Korean Ro4 in a modern international tournament, indeed the fact it was even mentioned at all probably attests to a shift. Definitely more depth there even now, but the EU big hitters especially are often up at the business end.
Not a stat, I’ll have to check it but off the top of my head but I think Serral has more Ro4 or better results than Ro8 or worse results, for quite some time now. If he doesn’t it’s close, but it’s still pretty bonkers. My GOAT for that, and similar reasons
I think Rogue’s claim is lessened by him coming back from military and not doing very much. If he stayed away, well he bowed out as an elite player. If he came back and emulated what say, herO has shown, I think making a return to the top after an enforced period away maybe enhances his claim.
A middle ground where you return and you’re a decent pro with the odd flash, less so. I think Innovation’s claim was lessened for similar reasons, although in his case it was existing in a ‘good enough to be a decent pro, not bothered enough to be a top one’ for quite some time, whereas if he’d retired, less that problem. Regardless I still have Innovation as my personal number 3, behind Maru
Other claims, there’s usually someone else in the ballpark. Peak level? Well yeah Innovation was scary as fuck, but so was/is Maru at his very best, so too Serral. Clem doesn’t have the back catalogue of titles but his absolute best play may be the best we’ve seen. World Champs? You’ve a few in and around 3 of those or equivalents. Starleagues? Ok Maru’s got a gap, although he really only started stretching it as rivals dropped off. Premiers? Serral’s got a decent gap but it’s not a chasm if we discount some regionals.
Consistency though? Of all of my crude categories, this is probably the one where there’s one guy who’s streets ahead. He simply doesn’t lose early. If he doesn’t make an Ro4 or finals it’s often to the winner, and if it’s an ‘upset’, he’s not getting swept the series usually goes to the final set. And he’s either topping or close to topping most of the others too.
That aside, last few GSLs don’t have that special sauce for me either. I don’t rate them as highly. The lack of top dog foreigners is part of it, given how competitive they are internationally. I don’t like the format changes either. I think cutting the player pool, understandable to some degree, but definitely I dislike squashing the Ro4 and finals together because it diminishes the prep element.
So long as records aren’t considered equivalent, I’m OK with that. Trap is the only player to make the Ro8+ in 10 seasons in a row, under the old format (my only ever Liquipedia edit haha). I don’t think anyone is in a realistic position to do it now, but if someone did it’s hardly the same prospect as riding through both the Ro32 and Ro16 group gauntlet, not having a bad day at the office and doing that for 10 straight tournaments.
I don’t think there’s much of a case for region locking anymore, equally I don’t think the economics of the scene are going to enable many top class, international fields at offline events for much longer.
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think Rogue’s claim is lessened by him coming back from military and not doing very much. If he stayed away, well he bowed out as an elite player. If he came back and emulated what say, herO has shown, I think making a return to the top after an enforced period away maybe enhances his claim.
Couldn't disagree more. It makes no sense to me that trying and failing to do something should punish you compared to not trying at all. He still has the same results as before so why should he be punished for trying to come back?
And what difference does it make if the mediocre results are at the end or at the beginning of ones career, to me it's just as senseless as saying Serral should be punished for the mediocre first 5 years of his career.
Do Ronaldo and Messi have less of a Goat claim now because they continue their careers in lesser leagues and can't compete at the very top anymore?
On the topic: The Goat is still Serral to me, but if Maru wins EWC it will be him. If he does that he will have succeeded in every format and in every era, I don't think Serrals resumeé can compete with that
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On May 28 2025 10:34 Telephone wrote:
I have to agree with you there. How about the last few GSLs that weren't this year, though? Or last Dreamhack dallas compared to all of the above?
I think that yet another all-korean ro4 further justifies the devaluing of region-locked tournaments, because even today, when someone could legitimately argue that some of the greatest players are in EU, it's hard to discredit just how dominant the Korean scene has been for the last 15 years.
And for some more bait (sorry WombaT, I really respect your opinion and all that you've done for the scene!), so the GOAT conversation is dead, and Rogue or maybe Maru is the GOAT of all time?
I feel this year has an asterisk to it because of the uncertainty and crampedness much like the Covid year had for beeing all online only.
An all korean Ro4 is something we didn't have for almost 8 years outside of Korea. Definitely the exception to the rule and quite an outlier. Wouldn't put any weight into that.
Nah still Serral. That one rushed tournament doesn't make a dent here. If Maru or Rogue would win everything there is to win this year we could open that discussion again though.
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I would put more weight to this tournament over any of the GSL, PigFest or online tournament so far this year. Its result probably is an outlier, but still means something in the grand scheme of things, especially with the spots to EWC on the line. Does that predict anything for EWC? No. Does it make me change my opinion about player performance and rating overall? Yes.
As for the GOAT debate, this one doesnt change much due to its small impact, but who win EWC will have a better argument imo.
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Northern Ireland26891 Posts
On May 28 2025 16:21 Charoisaur wrote:Show nested quote +
think Rogue’s claim is lessened by him coming back from military and not doing very much. If he stayed away, well he bowed out as an elite player. If he came back and emulated what say, herO has shown, I think making a return to the top after an enforced period away maybe enhances his claim.
Couldn't disagree more. It makes no sense to me that trying and failing to do something should punish you compared to not trying at all. He still has the same results as before so why should he be punished for trying to come back? And what difference does it make if the mediocre results are at the end or at the beginning of ones career, to me it's just as senseless as saying Serral should be punished for the mediocre first 5 years of his career. Do Ronaldo and Messi have less of a Goat claim now because they continue their careers in lesser leagues and can't compete at the very top anymore? On the topic: The Goat is still Serral to me, but if Maru wins EWC it will be him. If he does that he will have succeeded in every format and in every era, I don't think Serrals resumeé can compete with that
It’s tough at the top of GOAT lists.
I don’t personally think Rogue had a great claim versus Maru or Serral anyway. In the same ballpark certainly.
Going to your football example. Ronaldinho was the man for a few years, probably my favourite player to watch. Let’s say he has his career ended at his Barcelona peak. It’s difficult to argue he was greater than Messi or Ronaldo based on his subsequent drop off. The Ronaldinho who was forced to quit playing at the peak of his powers, the ‘what if?’ version would be an easier argument to me.
I wouldn’t say it’s punishing him, he’s had a great career, which isn’t really diminished either way, and folks below him haven’t really matched those for the most part.
It’s just the two he’s chasing and for me that gap gets bigger if he’s not posting statement wins.
If Rogue had just sailed off into the military sunset while a championship level player, there’s that question of what more he could have accomplished without an enforced break. If he comes back and does a herO it’s ’wow guy got back into shape quickly and few have done that, what could he have done without the enforced break?’
If you come back and don’t get back to that real cutting edge, you’ve kinda answered those hypotheticals in the negatory.
For me it doesn’t diminish his legacy, but it doesn’t enhance it either. And Serral and Maru have kept winning things in the interim too.
That said maybe Rogue goes mental and somehow wins EWC, which would be one of the great comeback stories in the history of the game, and he’s right back in that conversation
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On May 28 2025 22:33 WombaT wrote:Show nested quote +On May 28 2025 16:21 Charoisaur wrote:
think Rogue’s claim is lessened by him coming back from military and not doing very much. If he stayed away, well he bowed out as an elite player. If he came back and emulated what say, herO has shown, I think making a return to the top after an enforced period away maybe enhances his claim.
Couldn't disagree more. It makes no sense to me that trying and failing to do something should punish you compared to not trying at all. He still has the same results as before so why should he be punished for trying to come back? And what difference does it make if the mediocre results are at the end or at the beginning of ones career, to me it's just as senseless as saying Serral should be punished for the mediocre first 5 years of his career. Do Ronaldo and Messi have less of a Goat claim now because they continue their careers in lesser leagues and can't compete at the very top anymore? On the topic: The Goat is still Serral to me, but if Maru wins EWC it will be him. If he does that he will have succeeded in every format and in every era, I don't think Serrals resumeé can compete with that It’s tough at the top of GOAT lists. I don’t personally think Rogue had a great claim versus Maru or Serral anyway. In the same ballpark certainly. Going to your football example. Ronaldinho was the man for a few years, probably my favourite player to watch. Let’s say he has his career ended at his Barcelona peak. It’s difficult to argue he was greater than Messi or Ronaldo based on his subsequent drop off. The Ronaldinho who was forced to quit playing at the peak of his powers, the ‘what if?’ version would be an easier argument to me. I wouldn’t say it’s punishing him, he’s had a great career, which isn’t really diminished either way, and folks below him haven’t really matched those for the most part. It’s just the two he’s chasing and for me that gap gets bigger if he’s not posting statement wins. If Rogue had just sailed off into the military sunset while a championship level player, there’s that question of what more he could have accomplished without an enforced break. If he comes back and does a herO it’s ’wow guy got back into shape quickly and few have done that, what could he have done without the enforced break?’ If you come back and don’t get back to that real cutting edge, you’ve kinda answered those hypotheticals in the negatory. For me it doesn’t diminish his legacy, but it doesn’t enhance it either. And Serral and Maru have kept winning things in the interim too. That said maybe Rogue goes mental and somehow wins EWC, which would be one of the great comeback stories in the history of the game, and he’s right back in that conversation
I don't think 'what ifs' are relevant in such a conversation at all anyway. Either you have the results or you don't, if you start considering hypothetical what ifs then there's no factual basis of discussion anymore.
Someone that retires early shouldn't get extra points for what he might or might not have accomplished in the future.
Agree though that Rogue is a solid, and clear third anyway
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On May 28 2025 16:21 Charoisaur wrote:Show nested quote +
think Rogue’s claim is lessened by him coming back from military and not doing very much. If he stayed away, well he bowed out as an elite player. If he came back and emulated what say, herO has shown, I think making a return to the top after an enforced period away maybe enhances his claim.
Couldn't disagree more. It makes no sense to me that trying and failing to do something should punish you compared to not trying at all. He still has the same results as before so why should he be punished for trying to come back? And what difference does it make if the mediocre results are at the end or at the beginning of ones career, to me it's just as senseless as saying Serral should be punished for the mediocre first 5 years of his career. Do Ronaldo and Messi have less of a Goat claim now because they continue their careers in lesser leagues and can't compete at the very top anymore? On the topic: The Goat is still Serral to me, but if Maru wins EWC it will be him. If he does that he will have succeeded in every format and in every era, I don't think Serrals resumeé can compete with that
Serral wasn't a full time pro before finishing school and that is the key difference, at least in my opinion. Once he put in the hours, he basically dominated the scene in nearly every year or was a close second, while others went up and down the dominance hierarchy.
Maru winning EWC would open up a hot discussion for sure. But for me, it will most likely be still be Serral. Yes, Maru has competed in the prime era and won one other tournament that Serral did not, but the circumstances why Serral did are explainable. Plus, Serral simply dominated the scene (including GOAT contenders... and I mean mostly statistically, not 1v1s) in ways, no one else ever did. This one tournament that he did not win, in my opinion is rather irrelevant.
To Charoi and everyone else: Keep your GOAT-bullets in the chamber... I'm gonna release the update of my GOAT analysis some time this weekend, with a big rework, the inclusion of Mvp, Rain and Life as well as team results.
Looking forward to your guy's thoughts.
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On May 30 2025 04:43 PremoBeats wrote:Show nested quote +On May 28 2025 16:21 Charoisaur wrote:
think Rogue’s claim is lessened by him coming back from military and not doing very much. If he stayed away, well he bowed out as an elite player. If he came back and emulated what say, herO has shown, I think making a return to the top after an enforced period away maybe enhances his claim.
Couldn't disagree more. It makes no sense to me that trying and failing to do something should punish you compared to not trying at all. He still has the same results as before so why should he be punished for trying to come back? And what difference does it make if the mediocre results are at the end or at the beginning of ones career, to me it's just as senseless as saying Serral should be punished for the mediocre first 5 years of his career. Do Ronaldo and Messi have less of a Goat claim now because they continue their careers in lesser leagues and can't compete at the very top anymore? On the topic: The Goat is still Serral to me, but if Maru wins EWC it will be him. If he does that he will have succeeded in every format and in every era, I don't think Serrals resumeé can compete with that Serral wasn't a full time pro before finishing school and that is the key difference, at least in my opinion. Once he put in the hours, he basically dominated the scene in nearly every year or was a close second, while others went up and down the dominance hierarchy.
Didn't Life win a GSL at 15 while still going to school? That shows it's possible. a sample size of 1 should be enough here given it's the same sample size of players that shows winning a premier tournament post-military is possible (only herO).
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On May 30 2025 06:18 Charoisaur wrote:Show nested quote +On May 30 2025 04:43 PremoBeats wrote:On May 28 2025 16:21 Charoisaur wrote:
think Rogue’s claim is lessened by him coming back from military and not doing very much. If he stayed away, well he bowed out as an elite player. If he came back and emulated what say, herO has shown, I think making a return to the top after an enforced period away maybe enhances his claim.
Couldn't disagree more. It makes no sense to me that trying and failing to do something should punish you compared to not trying at all. He still has the same results as before so why should he be punished for trying to come back? And what difference does it make if the mediocre results are at the end or at the beginning of ones career, to me it's just as senseless as saying Serral should be punished for the mediocre first 5 years of his career. Do Ronaldo and Messi have less of a Goat claim now because they continue their careers in lesser leagues and can't compete at the very top anymore? On the topic: The Goat is still Serral to me, but if Maru wins EWC it will be him. If he does that he will have succeeded in every format and in every era, I don't think Serrals resumeé can compete with that Serral wasn't a full time pro before finishing school and that is the key difference, at least in my opinion. Once he put in the hours, he basically dominated the scene in nearly every year or was a close second, while others went up and down the dominance hierarchy. Didn't Life win a GSL at 15 while still going to school? That shows it's possible. a sample size of 1 should be enough here given it's the same sample size of players that shows winning a premier tournament post-military is possible (only herO).
And that makes Life's achievement all the more impressive. But the observation also clearly explains why Serral exploded in 2018.
The overarching idea is to either ignore non-prime results or to include them. You could further penalize players with shorter careers as achieving results in only 1 or 2 years is easier to stay consistent over 10. Both are valid concepts.
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Northern Ireland26891 Posts
On May 30 2025 17:17 PremoBeats wrote:Show nested quote +On May 30 2025 06:18 Charoisaur wrote:On May 30 2025 04:43 PremoBeats wrote:On May 28 2025 16:21 Charoisaur wrote:
think Rogue’s claim is lessened by him coming back from military and not doing very much. If he stayed away, well he bowed out as an elite player. If he came back and emulated what say, herO has shown, I think making a return to the top after an enforced period away maybe enhances his claim.
Couldn't disagree more. It makes no sense to me that trying and failing to do something should punish you compared to not trying at all. He still has the same results as before so why should he be punished for trying to come back? And what difference does it make if the mediocre results are at the end or at the beginning of ones career, to me it's just as senseless as saying Serral should be punished for the mediocre first 5 years of his career. Do Ronaldo and Messi have less of a Goat claim now because they continue their careers in lesser leagues and can't compete at the very top anymore? On the topic: The Goat is still Serral to me, but if Maru wins EWC it will be him. If he does that he will have succeeded in every format and in every era, I don't think Serrals resumeé can compete with that Serral wasn't a full time pro before finishing school and that is the key difference, at least in my opinion. Once he put in the hours, he basically dominated the scene in nearly every year or was a close second, while others went up and down the dominance hierarchy. Didn't Life win a GSL at 15 while still going to school? That shows it's possible. a sample size of 1 should be enough here given it's the same sample size of players that shows winning a premier tournament post-military is possible (only herO). And that makes Life's achievement all the more impressive. But the observation also clearly explains why Serral exploded in 2018. The overarching idea is to either ignore non-prime results or to include them. You could further penalize players with shorter careers as achieving results in only 1 or 2 years is easier to stay consistent over 10. Both are valid concepts.
Metaphorically speaking, it’s as hard if not harder to stay at the top of the mountain than it is to stay there.
Nobody starts at the peak either (wordplay intended), they gotta climb it.
So I think you’ve scope to treat non-prime results slightly differently than post hitting the peak. All sorts of factors may slow your ascent if the summit that aren’t at your control as much, but once you do get there, outside of injuries or some other misfortune it’s really mostly motivation.
Someone like Serral can’t really help being Finnish, or finishing school. Whereas at the other end of things, someone like Innovation doesn’t really have mitigating reasons for his slumps and late-career mediocrity in the same way.
But I’d generally only consider this if other factors are close to begin with.
If player A has way bigger accomplishments and titles than player B, but player A had years of miserable results at the end of their career, and player B was pretty consistently good, I’d still go with player A easily.
Whereas if it’s a player B who has similar, if not better results, it would be something I’d factor in.
I think this can be lost in the sauce a bit. I’ll factor certain things in to break ties or close ones, that I wouldn’t necessarily use to actually formulate my ranking list. Which is basically thus:
1. Peak level, relative to competition at the time.
2. Weight of accomplishments and speed of achieving them.
3. Consistency of performance and longevity.
X. Other factors.
So basically, it’s weighted a bit rather than absolute. But I think you have to have been the outright best player at some period to be the GOAT. Somebody who was not, could still be the GOAT, if they were consistently top 4 for years and just won way more overall, while never being #1 in a particular era. And a player who won slightly less but was making Ro8/Ro4s all the time could jump above that person.
‘Other factors’ is a wildcard, dependent on what those are. Could be era, balance, non SC-related or whatever. They can circumvent the general hierarchy altogether, or be at the bottom of the hierarchy and used as a tiebreaker.
My crude system is, if you win in the upper category in the list, another claimant really has to gap you in the next down to overtake you. If it’s quite even in the upper categories, the player who’s notably stronger in the lower ones wins out.
Life is an interesting one within my system. let’s just assume he didn’t match fix and instead had an arm amputated or something.
It’s hard not to place him very high indeed, he ticks that ‘at some point best player’ box, he won big things. The hypothetical Life the ‘other factors’ metric. Or the actual Mvp as perhaps a better example.
With a shortened career, I think the hypothetical can beat the real, but it has to be close. If player A has pretty similar, but slightly worse results overall than player B, but a way shorter career that’s ended prematurity by some factor, there’s definitely an argument to give that duel to player A. Even if it’s possible they’d never win anything ever again if they’d continued their career.
But it has to be kinda close. Hypothetical Life maybe picks up a few more titles to push him above some others, but a Serral? Not impossible but a lot of things have to happen for that to happen.
I don’t discount the hypotheticals myself, but the more unknowns there are the less I do.
To give a more pertinent modern example, we could take Serral playing GSL consistently. For me, he probably wins one, it’s not impossible he doesn’t. That seems a reasonable probability, but I’d not consider it a sure thing.
Whereas some will claim he’d be cleaning house and winning 4/5 of the things if he’d committed. I wouldn’t rule that out either, but you start to get into a realm where the hypothetical is too big. Maybe he gets homesick and doesn’t show his best and gets demotivated. Maybe there’s a few seasons he is in great form but gets sniped with a great bit of preparation, a format that he’s not used to. Etc etc
Bit of a ramble but hey, I started, may as well finish :p
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Great rambling, as most of the times when you post around here.
Funny what you wrote about Life... I am looking forward to your opinion about my new article in that regard, as most people even see it as blasphemous to even mention his name in the same sentence as the acronym GOAT.
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Northern Ireland26891 Posts
On June 01 2025 18:03 PremoBeats wrote:
Great rambling, as most of the times when you post around here.
Funny what you wrote about Life... I am looking forward to your opinion about my new article in that regard, as most people even see it as blasphemous to even mention his name in the same sentence as the acronym GOAT.
Cheers, I look forward to the read!
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EPT
