EPT![[image loading]](https://www.teamliquid.net/staff/digmouse/WESG.png)
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Group Stage: March 11-12, 05:00 GMT (+00:00)
Playoffs: March 13-17
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WESG SC2 Stage | WESG Main Stage Casters: RotterDam, Wardi, Rapid, Lowko
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World Electronic Sports Games 2018WESG 2018 Grand Final - Group Stage Day 1
| Forum Index > StarCraft 2 Tournaments |
digmouse
China6326 Posts
Group Stage: March 11-12, 05:00 GMT (+00:00) Playoffs: March 13-17 WESG SC2 Stage | WESG Main Stage Casters: RotterDam, Wardi, Rapid, Lowko World Electronic Sports Games 2018 | ||
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digmouse
China6326 Posts
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Kimb3r
Germany744 Posts
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Deleted User 3420
24492 Posts
On March 10 2019 23:36 Kimb3r wrote: So what do you guys think about the probability that a Korean wins this tourney? I'd say something like 33% chance a korean wins, 50% chance serral wins | ||
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Geo.Rion
7377 Posts
On March 10 2019 23:49 travis wrote: I'd say something like 33% chance a korean wins, 50% chance serral wins that s a fairly generous 17% you re giving to the rank and file of the foreigner army | ||
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Deleted User 3420
24492 Posts
On March 11 2019 00:03 Geo.Rion wrote: that s a fairly generous 17% you re giving to the rank and file of the foreigner army yeah i thought about it. most of them are around 0% but we do have some top foreigners in there that are capable of some kind of upset - especially since the field isn't saturated with foreigner killing koreans like most of these tournaments are. in fact, one of our foreign heros could technically win the tournament off of one or even 0 match wins vs a korean | ||
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Kimb3r
Germany744 Posts
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Charoisaur
Germany15867 Posts
On March 10 2019 23:49 travis wrote: I'd say something like 33% chance a korean wins, 50% chance serral wins If Serral faces Maru or Inno he will have a very hard time winning unless he has significantly improved his ZvT since Katowice. I think he has to hope for Dark taking out the terrans if he wants to win. My guess would be 20% Serral, 30% Maru, 25% Inno, 20% Dark, 5% Neeb | ||
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sneakyfox
8216 Posts
On March 10 2019 23:49 travis wrote: I'd say something like 33% chance a korean wins, 50% chance serral wins So you think that Maru, Dark and Innovation combined have a smaller chance of winning the tournament than Serral alone, even though he is in the most difficult group by far  | ||
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Fango
United Kingdom8987 Posts
On March 11 2019 00:06 travis wrote: yeah i thought about it. most of them are around 0% but we do have some top foreigners in there that are capable of some kind of upset - especially since the field isn't saturated with foreigner killing koreans like most of these tournaments are. in fact, one of our foreign heros could technically win the tournament off of one or even 0 match wins vs a korean WeSG tends to have an extra layer of korean dominance to be fair. Across the two events so far, Koreans are 54-3 in series and 130-14 in maps against foreigners. Those three losses being TY losing a throwaway series to Kelazur after he'd already won that group, Maru losing the 3rd place APAC match to Time when he didn't take the match seriously and 2 rax'd each game, and Serral beating Classic in the 3rd place match of last year (which lets be honest is the only serious result out of the three). | ||
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sneakyfox
8216 Posts
On March 11 2019 01:23 Fango wrote: Maru losing the 3rd place APAC match to Time when he didn't take the match seriously and 2 rax'd each game Are you trying to say that Maru never takes starcraft matches seriously? | ||
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Charoisaur
Germany15867 Posts
On March 11 2019 01:23 Fango wrote: WeSG tends to have an extra layer of korean dominance to be fair. Across the two events so far, Koreans are 54-3 in series and 130-14 in maps against foreigners. Those three losses being TY losing a throwaway series to Kelazur after he'd already won that group, Maru losing the 3rd place APAC match to Time when he didn't take the match seriously and 2 rax'd each game, and Serral beating Classic in the 3rd place match of last year (which lets be honest is the only serious result out of the three). Tbf at the time we thought he didn't take the match serious but after his GSL finals vs TY where he played the same way I don't think we can assume that anymore. | ||
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Xain0n
Italy3963 Posts
On March 11 2019 01:08 Charoisaur wrote: If Serral faces Maru or Inno he will have a very hard time winning unless he has significantly improved his ZvT since Katowice. I think he has to hope for Dark taking out the terrans if he wants to win. My guess would be 20% Serral, 30% Maru, 25% Inno, 20% Dark, 5% Neeb If Maru plays like he did against Impact he has no chanche; Serral maybe has problems in ultra late game ZvT but IEM's series against Inno was worth almost nothing, I doubt Serral would play this passively in a meaningful series. The real question is if Serral is properly focused and can avoid free losses like the ones against Ragnarok in g2 and soO in g2 of their respective series. I'd give Neeb a 3%, anyone else a 2%, Serral a 35% and an evenly distributed 60% to the koreans. | ||
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Fango
United Kingdom8987 Posts
On March 11 2019 01:30 Charoisaur wrote: Tbf at the time we thought he didn't take the match serious but after his GSL finals vs TY where he played the same way I don't think we can assume that anymore. Well he didn't feel confident against TY in a macro game (according to him anyway). I doubt he felt that way against Time, considering in the main event he played standard and absolutely smashed him | ||
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Geo.Rion
7377 Posts
I mean not the outcome of the game, the odds that they would meet each other? 5-1? | ||
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Fango
United Kingdom8987 Posts
On March 11 2019 01:51 Geo.Rion wrote: If we re talking odds, what are the odds of Maru vs Serral? I mean not the outcome of the game, the odds that they would meet each other? 5-1? Assuming the seeding is good and neither of them are upset, probably quite high | ||
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Charoisaur
Germany15867 Posts
On March 11 2019 01:37 Xain0n wrote: If Maru plays like he did against Impact he has no chanche; Serral maybe has problems in ultra late game ZvT but IEM's series against Inno was worth almost nothing, I doubt Serral would play this passively in a meaningful series. what about his lategame loss against Gumiho? didn't he care about that game either? or did he threw that match to give his fans more games to watch? Let's face it - his ZvT isn't as good as his other matchups. which is not surprising considering the lack of terrans in EU. | ||
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Elentos
55456 Posts
On March 11 2019 01:50 Fango wrote: Well he didn't feel confident against TY in a macro game (according to him anyway). I doubt he felt that way against Time, considering in the main event he played standard and absolutely smashed him According to Maru, he proxies when he A) feels like he can't win a normal game (vs TY), B) feels like his opponents are sufficiently beneath him (Neeb at Blizzcon) and C) whenever the fuck he feels like it. I reckon the TIME series was B. | ||
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Fango
United Kingdom8987 Posts
On March 11 2019 02:38 Elentos wrote: According to Maru, he proxies when he A) feels like he can't win a normal game (vs TY), B) feels like his opponents are sufficiently beneath him (Neeb at Blizzcon) and C) whenever the fuck he feels like it. I reckon the TIME series was B. I think the TIME series being meaningless as well meant he couldn't be bothered with a normal game. In the APAC group stages he started nuke rushing and shit once he'd won the group. But he's always been cocky when playing opponents much worse than him, even when the match is important. Like 2 rax'ing Creator in proleague, BC rushing Impact in the latest GSL, his entire asian games run etc | ||
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Xain0n
Italy3963 Posts
On March 11 2019 02:18 Charoisaur wrote: what about his lategame loss against Gumiho? didn't he care about that game either? or did he threw that match to give his fans more games to watch? Let's face it - his ZvT isn't as good as his other matchups. which is not surprising considering the lack of terrans in EU. I agree ZvT is historically his worst matchup; did you see the game against Gumiho? Serral didn't scout appropriately and was overwhelmed by a swarm of Battlecruisers, I wouldn't say that game underlined any particular weakness as Serral usually is extremely good at scouting. The games against Inno were worrying but also the ones against Neeb before BlizzCon were; it's possible that Serral's late ZvT is indeed relatively subpar tho, we might find it out very soon. | ||
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