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On September 29 2013 19:46 Musicus wrote: always trust aligulcac
(1884) LucifroN 0-0 Soulkey (1742) --------------------------------------------- 10.00% 4-0 0-4 3.67% 17.51% 4-1 1-4 8.25% 19.16% 4-2 2-4 11.60% 16.77% 4-3 3-4 13.05% --------------------------------------------- 63.44% 36.56%
Median outcome: LucifroN 4-3 Soulkey Estimated by Aligulac. Modify.
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If you don't take players from different point pools, of course :p
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On September 29 2013 20:34 NicksonReyes wrote:Show nested quote +On September 29 2013 20:06 Godwrath wrote:On September 29 2013 19:44 PoP wrote:On September 29 2013 19:31 AxionSteel wrote: Dunno, these same people crying now, lots of them were incredibly vocal and disrespectful in the "OMG KESPA ELEPHANT wank wank" phase (never getting banned for it) when it looked like to them that their superior BW idols would completely take over the scene. It obviously never happened, and yeh.
Maru> Flash. gg's Well it's not like ESF are dominating either. No one is dominating anything and no one is actually consistent, and that's a terribly bad sign for a competitive game. How long did it take for somebody to really dominate on BW ? By that I'm guessing you're referring to a dominance like Nada's and not Boxer's. His started 2002, so about 4 years. You can't really compare it to SC2 though. Pro SC1 started with people playing with like 20 apm + Show Spoiler + and Boxer's dominance(started around 2001) was because he was just one step ahead of people in learning how to actually play the game, because pros still haven't yet, whereas SC2 started with people already knowing how pro SC works and the scene was already high-level since the very beginning. I might be wrong though. People who aren't 7 y/o like me when Nada started dominating might know better.
OMG those clothes!
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On September 29 2013 21:01 papaz wrote:Show nested quote +On September 29 2013 20:34 NicksonReyes wrote:On September 29 2013 20:06 Godwrath wrote:On September 29 2013 19:44 PoP wrote:On September 29 2013 19:31 AxionSteel wrote: Dunno, these same people crying now, lots of them were incredibly vocal and disrespectful in the "OMG KESPA ELEPHANT wank wank" phase (never getting banned for it) when it looked like to them that their superior BW idols would completely take over the scene. It obviously never happened, and yeh.
Maru> Flash. gg's Well it's not like ESF are dominating either. No one is dominating anything and no one is actually consistent, and that's a terribly bad sign for a competitive game. How long did it take for somebody to really dominate on BW ? By that I'm guessing you're referring to a dominance like Nada's and not Boxer's. His started 2002, so about 4 years. You can't really compare it to SC2 though. Pro SC1 started with people playing with like 20 apm + Show Spoiler +http://youtu.be/3SnE8W-ckgc?t=3m30s and Boxer's dominance(started around 2001) was because he was just one step ahead of people in learning how to actually play the game, because pros still haven't yet, whereas SC2 started with people already knowing how pro SC works and the scene was already high-level since the very beginning. I might be wrong though. People who aren't 7 y/o like me when Nada started dominating might know better. OMG those clothes! Boxer's space suit OP + Show Spoiler +
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On September 29 2013 20:04 Boonbag wrote:Show nested quote +On September 29 2013 20:01 Ammanas wrote:On September 29 2013 19:52 Boonbag wrote:On September 29 2013 19:27 Ammanas wrote:On September 29 2013 19:24 Fusilero wrote:On September 29 2013 19:23 opterown wrote:On September 29 2013 18:19 Scarecrow wrote:On September 29 2013 18:18 lolfail9001 wrote:On September 29 2013 18:17 Azera wrote: flash throwing away games, now left the booth to re-evaluate his sc2 career. Tbh, he would make more money from streaming bw on afreeca, than his current salary most likely are you high? apparently sea or someone is making 10k per month, not shabby. if flash's salary is not 6 figures USD, sea's making more From what I've heard afreeca balloons pay pretty well, there is some crazy money from balloon donations iirc movie got an absurd amount once. Apparently Bisu said on his Afreeca stream (source is some random poster on TL though) that SC2 progamer salaries dropped so much that it is more profitable to stream BW on Afreeca then being SC2 progamer. (Although, imo more likely is that HIS salary dropped so much and it is only more profitable for HIM (and few others, like JangBi and Sea) because they are what they are...) im not random yo Was not meant as an insult, I just couldn't remember and frankly couldn't bother to check who was the poster.. i laughed when i found your post, was prolly 1 chance out of million i stumble upon it ^^ You will never be random in my eyes! Your blog section is hidden gem.
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On September 29 2013 20:21 ElBlanco wrote:Show nested quote +On September 29 2013 19:55 opterown wrote: I think a part of the perceived volatility is that there are simply many more tournaments and games than in bw. also, travel to foreign tournaments can really mess with player schedules/practice. It's a number of factors. First of all yeah there are a lot more tournaments which can make it seem like players aren't quite as dominant. Second of all and this is probably the most important point, HOTS was released this year and has underwent patch changes since then. How consistent were players the 1-2 years after BW was released? People expect SC2 to be at the position BW was in when it reached its peak but that took what 8 years or something? It's not true anyway, we have seen plenty of players who have been very consistent in SC2. Of course a new expansion and balance changes can make it difficult to stay on top but we still see players consistently up there (soulkey and innovation are obvious examples). In WoL we saw plenty of players consistently at the top despite the metagame changing many times and despite the fluctuations in balance and patchs. This argument only crops up when a player people really like or expect to win drop out. It's a way of blaming the game and not the player. The biggest flaw and this complaint isn't that it's not true, it's that it isn't necessarily a bad thing. Not all competitive games and sports are consistently dominated by a few players. Perhaps there really is just a very even playing field at the top and that isn't a bad thing for the game. Would it be great to see some consistent champions like MVP? Sure but seeing a more competitive field isn't bad either.
not really. as far as consistency goes rain and soulkey as mentioned are pretty good. just one problem though, they've never actually won a championship in hots.
this game is extremely volatile, although the causes can be debated. just look at today's tvts (which have been like that for 1-2 months now), it's absurd and impossible to predict. i don't understand how 27 army supply cannot break an opponent with 9, in BW (hm, even WoL for that matter) you could pretty much a-move and just win when your terran army is 3x bigger.
you want to talk about consistency? look at the SOSPA league for BW, nearly every game follows the expected outcome. things are about to get exciting with jangbi and maybe bisu joining but for the most part the better player on paper wins the series. can you explain that? SOSPA has been held rather regularly too.
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On September 29 2013 20:28 PoP wrote:Show nested quote +On September 29 2013 20:14 TeeTS wrote: Maru and Soulkey are pretty consistent. Soulkey won WCS Kor 1, and made Ro8 in season 2 & 3. Maru went out in season 1 to Soulkey alone, won season 2 and made Ro8 in season 3. Rain is allways near the top too. To me this looks pretty consistent. Overall we have a lot of similar faces in the Ro16 every season. Losira made it that far in every season, Flash too. Of course every season, some players flash in, while others have a little downtime, but you have that in every sport. You can´t define consistency only about tournament wins, perhaps even back to back, in the hardest league on the planet.
By consistency I mean Mvp-like consistency. Or even MKP/DRG. Which is, finish top-4 of almost every tournament, creating rivalries between them, stuff like that. Players that are really scary to face, that people talk about. Who's talking about Soulkey these days? Who's afraid of Rain after showing so many times that he can't keep his composure in important moments? Who's afraid of Flash? Only Innovation has been that guy these last few months. But it was a bit too short-lived it appears. Also, is there even one decent rivalry these days? Flash vs Innovation could have been one, but that's it, as far as I know. Show nested quote +In football (for americans: soccer) there has never been a back to back UEFA Champions League winner. never ever! Would you say this is a bad sign for a competitive sport like football? This is not a bad sign, because you have a big pool of players who consistently perform well (in SC2 this means qualifying for WCS Korea Premier League, because this is so fuckin hard, that these 32 players are definately all in the top 50 players in the world!) while having different winners from time to time.
It's not just about winning trophies, teams like Barcelona and (more recently) Bayern are the current "bonjwa" teams and any team in the world would be scared to play against them. Everyone excepts them to destroy basically almost any other team (barring a few). You don't have that in a game like SC2 at the moment. Not even close. Also sports like that are different by nature because those teams have a huge history and long-term fans. So I feel like it's not the most fair comparison.
You are forgetting TaeJa who very literally lives up to your ro4 consistency.
He also competes in the toughest region - WCS AM. ;D
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Aw, if only Flash won the winner game match Round 3.
It is so close that game . . .
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opterown
Australia54784 Posts
On September 29 2013 21:26 shadymmj wrote: you want to talk about consistency? look at the SOSPA league for BW, nearly every game follows the expected outcome. things are about to get exciting with jangbi and maybe bisu joining but for the most part the better player on paper wins the series. can you explain that? SOSPA has been held rather regularly too. correct me if i'm wrong; though sospa is held regularly, the player pool is fairly small and the number of games are still quite low, especially in comparison with SC2 and even BW. the smaller the player pool, the more likely there is to be significant differences in skill between everyone (tending away from the mean).
other popular games such as dota and lol (i think) can also be quite inconsistent/unpredictable too, so it's not that huge a deal.
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watching the vods now and how often does tasteless actually say that a player is worth watching. "Rain is a player to watch" EG's OZ is a player you should watch" tasteless is hilarious <3
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Canada16217 Posts
The reason SC2 is more inconsistent or "volatile" is because it's more strategy dependent than it is mechanics based, where as Broodwar is the opposite , very heavily mechanics based with strategy but less so compared to mechanics.(feel free to correct me if im wrong cause I don't know a lot about BW just heard from people) Several players throughout SC2 history have shown the ability to pick strategies and at the top of them is Mvp of course. This is why when hellbats were around it was the only viable build order(i'm not saying hellbats were OP i'm saying there was little variance in strategy so Innovation's mechanics made him prevail over the other players) so Innovation just demolished pretty much everyone in TvT.
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So...Flash cannot get enough WCS points to go the biggest tourney?
Or does he still have a chance?
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Canada16217 Posts
On September 29 2013 21:45 XiaoJoyce- wrote: So...Flash cannot get enough WCS points to go the biggest tourney?
Or does he still have a chance? He has no chance unless players are DQ'ed or something, even if he won IEM NY he would still be around 25th place~ cutoff is @ 16
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I think people that are taking about the Mvp, Nestea, DRG/MKP domination periods are missing one thing. Kespa pros was still playing BW at that time. The talent pool is much much deeper now. Even as a Mvp fan myself, although I feel he would have won even if Kespa pros switched during beta, it is obvious that Mvp would have won less championships.
And I think people are forgetting that DRG/MKP only lasted a couple months but it just happened they played enough other in 3 finals in a very short time.
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On September 29 2013 21:43 opterown wrote:Show nested quote +On September 29 2013 21:26 shadymmj wrote: you want to talk about consistency? look at the SOSPA league for BW, nearly every game follows the expected outcome. things are about to get exciting with jangbi and maybe bisu joining but for the most part the better player on paper wins the series. can you explain that? SOSPA has been held rather regularly too. correct me if i'm wrong; though sospa is held regularly, the player pool is fairly small and the number of games are still quite low, especially in comparison with SC2 and even BW. the smaller the player pool, the more likely there is to be significant differences in skill between everyone (tending away from the mean). other popular games such as dota and lol (i think) can also be quite inconsistent/unpredictable too, so it's not that huge a deal. player pools are comparable. Obviously it's somewhat flooded with half amateurs at early stages but they would be no worse than say Pet, Ruin, Sora or some other random guy in gsl. Anyways there's the one that wins it all so we'd be interested in a very top, and it's basically 8-10 players capable of beating each other just like in sc2.
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East Gorteau22261 Posts
On September 29 2013 21:59 juvenal wrote:Show nested quote +On September 29 2013 21:43 opterown wrote:On September 29 2013 21:26 shadymmj wrote: you want to talk about consistency? look at the SOSPA league for BW, nearly every game follows the expected outcome. things are about to get exciting with jangbi and maybe bisu joining but for the most part the better player on paper wins the series. can you explain that? SOSPA has been held rather regularly too. correct me if i'm wrong; though sospa is held regularly, the player pool is fairly small and the number of games are still quite low, especially in comparison with SC2 and even BW. the smaller the player pool, the more likely there is to be significant differences in skill between everyone (tending away from the mean). other popular games such as dota and lol (i think) can also be quite inconsistent/unpredictable too, so it's not that huge a deal. player pools are comparable. Obviously it's somewhat flooded with half amateurs at early stages but they would be no worse than say Pet, Ruin, Sora or some other random guy in gsl. Anyways there's the one that wins it all so we'd be interested in a very top, and it's basically 8-10 players capable of beating each other just like in sc2.
I'm offended by the fact that you'd call Sora "some random guy" And I don't really think SOSPA has depth comparable to WCS's. I agree that the lineup has become considerably deep over the last few months with former top BW-pros joining, but there are still more players of top-level skill (as in championship-level skill) in SC2 than there are in SOSPA.
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On September 29 2013 21:26 shadymmj wrote:Show nested quote +On September 29 2013 20:21 ElBlanco wrote:On September 29 2013 19:55 opterown wrote: I think a part of the perceived volatility is that there are simply many more tournaments and games than in bw. also, travel to foreign tournaments can really mess with player schedules/practice. It's a number of factors. First of all yeah there are a lot more tournaments which can make it seem like players aren't quite as dominant. Second of all and this is probably the most important point, HOTS was released this year and has underwent patch changes since then. How consistent were players the 1-2 years after BW was released? People expect SC2 to be at the position BW was in when it reached its peak but that took what 8 years or something? It's not true anyway, we have seen plenty of players who have been very consistent in SC2. Of course a new expansion and balance changes can make it difficult to stay on top but we still see players consistently up there (soulkey and innovation are obvious examples). In WoL we saw plenty of players consistently at the top despite the metagame changing many times and despite the fluctuations in balance and patchs. This argument only crops up when a player people really like or expect to win drop out. It's a way of blaming the game and not the player. The biggest flaw and this complaint isn't that it's not true, it's that it isn't necessarily a bad thing. Not all competitive games and sports are consistently dominated by a few players. Perhaps there really is just a very even playing field at the top and that isn't a bad thing for the game. Would it be great to see some consistent champions like MVP? Sure but seeing a more competitive field isn't bad either. not really. as far as consistency goes rain and soulkey as mentioned are pretty good. just one problem though, they've never actually won a championship in hots. this game is extremely volatile, although the causes can be debated. just look at today's tvts (which have been like that for 1-2 months now), it's absurd and impossible to predict. i don't understand how 27 army supply cannot break an opponent with 9, in BW (hm, even WoL for that matter) you could pretty much a-move and just win when your terran army is 3x bigger. you want to talk about consistency? look at the SOSPA league for BW, nearly every game follows the expected outcome. things are about to get exciting with jangbi and maybe bisu joining but for the most part the better player on paper wins the series. can you explain that? SOSPA has been held rather regularly too.
Soulkey won KR season 1...
Funny thing is, I think flash would have won with an a-move. He just lost all his marines without doing much.
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Russian Federation40186 Posts
On September 29 2013 21:26 shadymmj wrote: not really. as far as consistency goes rain and soulkey as mentioned are pretty good. just one problem though, they've never actually won a championship in hots. Soulkey? Yeah, he surely never won a championship in hots. /s Pfft. Also, inability to a-move with 27 supply into 9 is called defender's advantage and some wise men call it advantage of BW over SC2 :3
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United States23455 Posts
The one result that would ruin my morning TT Kangho.
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