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[MLG] Day 3 Winter Championship - Page 6

Forum Index > StarCraft 2 Tournaments
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The usual: Don't flame casters or players. Don't discuss balance in this or any LR thread. Don't call your fellow posters idiots. Be excited, happy and entertained.
Hider
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
Denmark9439 Posts
March 17 2013 11:07 GMT
#101
On March 17 2013 19:49 Grovbolle wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 17 2013 19:39 Hider wrote:
On March 17 2013 19:36 Grovbolle wrote:
                      Win    Top 2    Top 4    Top 8    
--------------------------------------------------------
Life 36.71% 29.26% 22.72% 11.30%
PartinG 22.53% 20.74% 24.93% 31.80%
Bomber 16.91% 6.93% 57.97% 18.19%
Rain 14.34% 19.05% 36.02% 30.59%
Flash 3.28% 9.47% 19.06% 68.20%
INnoVation 2.89% 7.69% 20.00% 69.41%
MC 2.49% 4.28% 11.41% 81.81%
Last 0.84% 2.57% 7.89% 88.70%
Estimated by Aligulac. Modify.

To those interested, I left out anything but the last players, please remember that this is mostly based on WoL and Kespa pros are a lot more "hidden" from the general population.


Innovation 2%?

This is completely useless. Statistical methods are supposed to help when quantifying stuff is to complicated to do subjectively. If you can't improve the methodology, aligulac is just a waste of time.


Based on what?

I agree that innovation is underrated in this, but we can't just magically up his rating. It will rise as his results improves. He loses to too many randoms in SPL. Plus we are still waiting for points to "transfer" to kespa players, but since they are very isolated (most only play proleague) it takes time. Please untwist your panties and chill, nobody forces anyone to use it.

And no that is not what statistical methods are used for, plus this is "raw" stats, the interpretation is up to you, plus I already stated that currently the system is very shaky (due to the change from WoL to HotS).

Plus this Terran surge is based a lot on HotS, of which we have very few matches.

In regards to Last, please tell me which historical data that indicates that he is a beast of another world:
http://aligulac.com/players/137-Last/results/


Don't publish ratings untill you improve this methodology. LIke what is the point of publishing heavily flawed statistics? This just making aligulac looks foolish, which is unfortunate.
Otolia
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
France5805 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-03-17 11:13:54
March 17 2013 11:10 GMT
#102
On March 17 2013 19:52 Lysanias wrote:
Seems like they fully base this of WoL GSL results and perhaps pref MLG's.
As you said Last has been doing well for a while now it's just that he's not in the foreign spotlight. (well after this MLG that's going to change rapitly ofc)

We have been looking at ways to smoothly transition our DB to HotS. Yes most of the rankings stems from WoL but until more games are played, there is little we can do. If you have a proposition as to how better correlate the current skill of players with their ratings we are always willing to listen.

On March 17 2013 20:07 Hider wrote:
Don't publish ratings untill you improve this methodology. LIke what is the point of publishing heavily flawed statistics? This just making aligulac looks foolish, which is unfortunate.

As I said above, we are willing to listen to anyone with suggestions. The problem has been identified for a long time but the methods we thought about to transition from WoL to HotS were flawed.

Aside from that, there is nothing wrong with our current methodology as every time a game is played, the players are nearing their ideal rating. Just because you don't like the predicted outcome doesn't mean it's stupid or flawed.
Grovbolle
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
Denmark3813 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-03-17 11:15:16
March 17 2013 11:12 GMT
#103
On March 17 2013 20:07 Hider wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 17 2013 19:49 Grovbolle wrote:
On March 17 2013 19:39 Hider wrote:
On March 17 2013 19:36 Grovbolle wrote:
                      Win    Top 2    Top 4    Top 8    
--------------------------------------------------------
Life 36.71% 29.26% 22.72% 11.30%
PartinG 22.53% 20.74% 24.93% 31.80%
Bomber 16.91% 6.93% 57.97% 18.19%
Rain 14.34% 19.05% 36.02% 30.59%
Flash 3.28% 9.47% 19.06% 68.20%
INnoVation 2.89% 7.69% 20.00% 69.41%
MC 2.49% 4.28% 11.41% 81.81%
Last 0.84% 2.57% 7.89% 88.70%
Estimated by Aligulac. Modify.

To those interested, I left out anything but the last players, please remember that this is mostly based on WoL and Kespa pros are a lot more "hidden" from the general population.


Innovation 2%?

This is completely useless. Statistical methods are supposed to help when quantifying stuff is to complicated to do subjectively. If you can't improve the methodology, aligulac is just a waste of time.


Based on what?

I agree that innovation is underrated in this, but we can't just magically up his rating. It will rise as his results improves. He loses to too many randoms in SPL. Plus we are still waiting for points to "transfer" to kespa players, but since they are very isolated (most only play proleague) it takes time. Please untwist your panties and chill, nobody forces anyone to use it.

And no that is not what statistical methods are used for, plus this is "raw" stats, the interpretation is up to you, plus I already stated that currently the system is very shaky (due to the change from WoL to HotS).

Plus this Terran surge is based a lot on HotS, of which we have very few matches.

In regards to Last, please tell me which historical data that indicates that he is a beast of another world:
http://aligulac.com/players/137-Last/results/


Don't publish ratings untill you improve this methodology. LIke what is the point of publishing heavily flawed statistics? This just making aligulac looks foolish, which is unfortunate.


We have discussed this, if we should just "shut down" for 6 months untill we have more data, but then again, HotS is just a big patch to the game. When is it okay to publish ratings then? How much data is enough? How should we account for players we "know" are really good but haven't proven it (lots of Kespa players falls in this category)? What if they actually aren't and peoples bias shines through.

Say what you will about the method, it is really strong in predicting matches, but strength lies in numbers, not in single brackets. But that being said, we are always trying to improve.

Lies, damned lies and statistics: http://aligulac.com
Schelim
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
Austria11528 Posts
March 17 2013 11:13 GMT
#104
On March 17 2013 20:07 GunSec wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 17 2013 20:01 Kasaraki wrote:
On March 17 2013 19:56 Tobblish wrote:
On March 17 2013 19:54 GunSec wrote:
On March 17 2013 19:48 Tobblish wrote:
On March 17 2013 19:29 skatblast wrote:
That stephano interview on slashers page is kind of disappointing. Saying he lost passion for the game. Hopefully he regains it.


Isn't that surprising tbh he was always in it for the money and would leave to get his doctors degree when things got sour for him.
His stay in Korea was really hard on him and to add on it Zerg is in a dark hole.


he was never studying for a doctor, he was going for a business degree if I remember it correctly.


Oh never heard about that, everyone have always talked about the doctor thing.

Yeah, it's all I've seen people mention as well, casters as well as people here on the forum. :o Aside from that, not sure how much passion Stephano had to lose to begin with, haha, or at least if you believe what he says it's not a lot.


Well I remember he said it himself in one of the interviews but I can't remember which one. I really think that he should retire when EG releases him, he is probably the top earning player in their team so even if he doesn't well in a tournament he would still earn lots of $$$ compared to study but it's up to him lol

he would earn more money now but he would potentially screw up his future. he's still young enough to go study and have it look somewhat decent on a CV, but if he stays fulltime pro for much longer he's gonna have a hard time finding a job imo, if he even has the motivation to get through his studies. what are you really gonna tell an employer? i spent those years where i should have been studying on playing computer games all day every day? i doubt most employers will give much of a shit that you made a lot of money doing so, and rightfully so.
TY <3 Cure <3 Inno <3 Special <3
Sumahi
Profile Blog Joined January 2012
Guam5609 Posts
March 17 2013 11:20 GMT
#105
I was so excited to see Life and Bomber advance. Then the realization sunk in, they are on the same side of the bracket...
Startale <3, ST_July <3, HongUn <3, Savior <3, Gretorp <3, Nada <3, Rainbow <3, Ret <3, Squirtle <3, Bomber <3
Kasaraki
Profile Blog Joined May 2012
Denmark7115 Posts
March 17 2013 11:30 GMT
#106
On March 17 2013 20:13 Schelim wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 17 2013 20:07 GunSec wrote:
On March 17 2013 20:01 Kasaraki wrote:
On March 17 2013 19:56 Tobblish wrote:
On March 17 2013 19:54 GunSec wrote:
On March 17 2013 19:48 Tobblish wrote:
On March 17 2013 19:29 skatblast wrote:
That stephano interview on slashers page is kind of disappointing. Saying he lost passion for the game. Hopefully he regains it.


Isn't that surprising tbh he was always in it for the money and would leave to get his doctors degree when things got sour for him.
His stay in Korea was really hard on him and to add on it Zerg is in a dark hole.


he was never studying for a doctor, he was going for a business degree if I remember it correctly.


Oh never heard about that, everyone have always talked about the doctor thing.

Yeah, it's all I've seen people mention as well, casters as well as people here on the forum. :o Aside from that, not sure how much passion Stephano had to lose to begin with, haha, or at least if you believe what he says it's not a lot.


Well I remember he said it himself in one of the interviews but I can't remember which one. I really think that he should retire when EG releases him, he is probably the top earning player in their team so even if he doesn't well in a tournament he would still earn lots of $$$ compared to study but it's up to him lol

he would earn more money now but he would potentially screw up his future. he's still young enough to go study and have it look somewhat decent on a CV, but if he stays fulltime pro for much longer he's gonna have a hard time finding a job imo, if he even has the motivation to get through his studies. what are you really gonna tell an employer? i spent those years where i should have been studying on playing computer games all day every day? i doubt most employers will give much of a shit that you made a lot of money doing so, and rightfully so.

I think you can spin being a pro-gamer much better than that, haha.
Schelim
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
Austria11528 Posts
March 17 2013 11:33 GMT
#107
On March 17 2013 20:30 Kasaraki wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 17 2013 20:13 Schelim wrote:
On March 17 2013 20:07 GunSec wrote:
On March 17 2013 20:01 Kasaraki wrote:
On March 17 2013 19:56 Tobblish wrote:
On March 17 2013 19:54 GunSec wrote:
On March 17 2013 19:48 Tobblish wrote:
On March 17 2013 19:29 skatblast wrote:
That stephano interview on slashers page is kind of disappointing. Saying he lost passion for the game. Hopefully he regains it.


Isn't that surprising tbh he was always in it for the money and would leave to get his doctors degree when things got sour for him.
His stay in Korea was really hard on him and to add on it Zerg is in a dark hole.


he was never studying for a doctor, he was going for a business degree if I remember it correctly.


Oh never heard about that, everyone have always talked about the doctor thing.

Yeah, it's all I've seen people mention as well, casters as well as people here on the forum. :o Aside from that, not sure how much passion Stephano had to lose to begin with, haha, or at least if you believe what he says it's not a lot.


Well I remember he said it himself in one of the interviews but I can't remember which one. I really think that he should retire when EG releases him, he is probably the top earning player in their team so even if he doesn't well in a tournament he would still earn lots of $$$ compared to study but it's up to him lol

he would earn more money now but he would potentially screw up his future. he's still young enough to go study and have it look somewhat decent on a CV, but if he stays fulltime pro for much longer he's gonna have a hard time finding a job imo, if he even has the motivation to get through his studies. what are you really gonna tell an employer? i spent those years where i should have been studying on playing computer games all day every day? i doubt most employers will give much of a shit that you made a lot of money doing so, and rightfully so.

I think you can spin being a pro-gamer much better than that, haha.

outside of Korea? i don't really think so. i guess you can talk about the experiences you've made in dealing with teams, fans, sponsors, etc and travelling around the world, which depending on the job you're trying to pursue could be helpful. but they'll still have that mental picture of the lazy, anti social nerd that sits in front of the computer all day.
TY <3 Cure <3 Inno <3 Special <3
bluQ
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
Germany1724 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-03-17 11:36:59
March 17 2013 11:33 GMT
#108
On March 17 2013 20:13 Schelim wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 17 2013 20:07 GunSec wrote:
On March 17 2013 20:01 Kasaraki wrote:
On March 17 2013 19:56 Tobblish wrote:
On March 17 2013 19:54 GunSec wrote:
On March 17 2013 19:48 Tobblish wrote:
On March 17 2013 19:29 skatblast wrote:
That stephano interview on slashers page is kind of disappointing. Saying he lost passion for the game. Hopefully he regains it.


Isn't that surprising tbh he was always in it for the money and would leave to get his doctors degree when things got sour for him.
His stay in Korea was really hard on him and to add on it Zerg is in a dark hole.


he was never studying for a doctor, he was going for a business degree if I remember it correctly.


Oh never heard about that, everyone have always talked about the doctor thing.

Yeah, it's all I've seen people mention as well, casters as well as people here on the forum. :o Aside from that, not sure how much passion Stephano had to lose to begin with, haha, or at least if you believe what he says it's not a lot.


Well I remember he said it himself in one of the interviews but I can't remember which one. I really think that he should retire when EG releases him, he is probably the top earning player in their team so even if he doesn't well in a tournament he would still earn lots of $$$ compared to study but it's up to him lol

he would earn more money now but he would potentially screw up his future. he's still young enough to go study and have it look somewhat decent on a CV, but if he stays fulltime pro for much longer he's gonna have a hard time finding a job imo, if he even has the motivation to get through his studies. what are you really gonna tell an employer? i spent those years where i should have been studying on playing computer games all day every day? i doubt most employers will give much of a shit that you made a lot of money doing so, and rightfully so.

beg to differ sir.
At least in germany those 2-3 years Stephano invested wouldn't be so hard on you in terms of C.V. if you would study after those years.
And to say that an emoployeer wouldn't care for someone who (when most youngsters ONLY party and drink) would travel to foreign countrys, earn cash by playing an econimc based strategy game, and get wasted afterwards.
There is so much potential for a business to have someone with such expierence AND a degree in some sort of form.

Business tend to introduce more and more so called "Planning Games" to their employees. Those are nothing more than a simulation of certain econimc problems/process/etc.
Guess what RTS are

On March 17 2013 20:33 Schelim wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 17 2013 20:30 Kasaraki wrote:
On March 17 2013 20:13 Schelim wrote:
On March 17 2013 20:07 GunSec wrote:
On March 17 2013 20:01 Kasaraki wrote:
On March 17 2013 19:56 Tobblish wrote:
On March 17 2013 19:54 GunSec wrote:
On March 17 2013 19:48 Tobblish wrote:
On March 17 2013 19:29 skatblast wrote:
That stephano interview on slashers page is kind of disappointing. Saying he lost passion for the game. Hopefully he regains it.


Isn't that surprising tbh he was always in it for the money and would leave to get his doctors degree when things got sour for him.
His stay in Korea was really hard on him and to add on it Zerg is in a dark hole.


he was never studying for a doctor, he was going for a business degree if I remember it correctly.


Oh never heard about that, everyone have always talked about the doctor thing.

Yeah, it's all I've seen people mention as well, casters as well as people here on the forum. :o Aside from that, not sure how much passion Stephano had to lose to begin with, haha, or at least if you believe what he says it's not a lot.


Well I remember he said it himself in one of the interviews but I can't remember which one. I really think that he should retire when EG releases him, he is probably the top earning player in their team so even if he doesn't well in a tournament he would still earn lots of $$$ compared to study but it's up to him lol

he would earn more money now but he would potentially screw up his future. he's still young enough to go study and have it look somewhat decent on a CV, but if he stays fulltime pro for much longer he's gonna have a hard time finding a job imo, if he even has the motivation to get through his studies. what are you really gonna tell an employer? i spent those years where i should have been studying on playing computer games all day every day? i doubt most employers will give much of a shit that you made a lot of money doing so, and rightfully so.

I think you can spin being a pro-gamer much better than that, haha.

outside of Korea? i don't really think so. i guess you can talk about the experiences you've made in dealing with teams, fans, sponsors, etc and travelling around the world, which depending on the job you're trying to pursue could be helpful. but they'll still have that mental picture of the lazy, anti social nerd that sits in front of the computer all day.

Umm ... to earn 100k$ a year as a 19 yrs old is comparable to being pretty successful at some sort of business-idea at that age... to reinvest that into appartments makes you even smarter.
Besides that if you can't promote what you did good, then you will have hard times to get a job never-the-less what you did
www.twitch.tv/bluquh (PoE, Starbow, HS)
Tobblish
Profile Joined August 2011
Sweden6404 Posts
March 17 2013 11:36 GMT
#109
On March 17 2013 20:33 Schelim wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 17 2013 20:30 Kasaraki wrote:
On March 17 2013 20:13 Schelim wrote:
On March 17 2013 20:07 GunSec wrote:
On March 17 2013 20:01 Kasaraki wrote:
On March 17 2013 19:56 Tobblish wrote:
On March 17 2013 19:54 GunSec wrote:
On March 17 2013 19:48 Tobblish wrote:
On March 17 2013 19:29 skatblast wrote:
That stephano interview on slashers page is kind of disappointing. Saying he lost passion for the game. Hopefully he regains it.


Isn't that surprising tbh he was always in it for the money and would leave to get his doctors degree when things got sour for him.
His stay in Korea was really hard on him and to add on it Zerg is in a dark hole.


he was never studying for a doctor, he was going for a business degree if I remember it correctly.


Oh never heard about that, everyone have always talked about the doctor thing.

Yeah, it's all I've seen people mention as well, casters as well as people here on the forum. :o Aside from that, not sure how much passion Stephano had to lose to begin with, haha, or at least if you believe what he says it's not a lot.


Well I remember he said it himself in one of the interviews but I can't remember which one. I really think that he should retire when EG releases him, he is probably the top earning player in their team so even if he doesn't well in a tournament he would still earn lots of $$$ compared to study but it's up to him lol

he would earn more money now but he would potentially screw up his future. he's still young enough to go study and have it look somewhat decent on a CV, but if he stays fulltime pro for much longer he's gonna have a hard time finding a job imo, if he even has the motivation to get through his studies. what are you really gonna tell an employer? i spent those years where i should have been studying on playing computer games all day every day? i doubt most employers will give much of a shit that you made a lot of money doing so, and rightfully so.

I think you can spin being a pro-gamer much better than that, haha.

outside of Korea? i don't really think so. i guess you can talk about the experiences you've made in dealing with teams, fans, sponsors, etc and travelling around the world, which depending on the job you're trying to pursue could be helpful. but they'll still have that mental picture of the lazy, anti social nerd that sits in front of the computer all day.


I don't know if it's different in other countries but here in Sweden at least the employers don't really give a fuck about what you have done in your free time.
If they are interested about the subject it actually helps out.
And yes I've had personal experience with this, that TBC WoW raiding sure helped out
The curse is real
Inzan1ty
Profile Joined September 2012
1163 Posts
March 17 2013 11:42 GMT
#110
I totally see Flash vs Life finals incoming

The ultimate weapon grows and grows, his dominance cant be avoided, the kid will duke it out with eSF`s own ultimate weapon Life though, resembling the good ole days of Flash vs JD

its like a battle in Dragon Ball Z, lol.
RIP Seung Hyun 'Space' Park † 6/5/2013 - Undead hero and eSports rolemodel
Shikyo
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Finland33997 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-03-17 11:47:44
March 17 2013 11:45 GMT
#111
On March 17 2013 20:12 Grovbolle wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 17 2013 20:07 Hider wrote:
On March 17 2013 19:49 Grovbolle wrote:
On March 17 2013 19:39 Hider wrote:
On March 17 2013 19:36 Grovbolle wrote:
                      Win    Top 2    Top 4    Top 8    
--------------------------------------------------------
Life 36.71% 29.26% 22.72% 11.30%
PartinG 22.53% 20.74% 24.93% 31.80%
Bomber 16.91% 6.93% 57.97% 18.19%
Rain 14.34% 19.05% 36.02% 30.59%
Flash 3.28% 9.47% 19.06% 68.20%
INnoVation 2.89% 7.69% 20.00% 69.41%
MC 2.49% 4.28% 11.41% 81.81%
Last 0.84% 2.57% 7.89% 88.70%
Estimated by Aligulac. Modify.

To those interested, I left out anything but the last players, please remember that this is mostly based on WoL and Kespa pros are a lot more "hidden" from the general population.


Innovation 2%?

This is completely useless. Statistical methods are supposed to help when quantifying stuff is to complicated to do subjectively. If you can't improve the methodology, aligulac is just a waste of time.


Based on what?

I agree that innovation is underrated in this, but we can't just magically up his rating. It will rise as his results improves. He loses to too many randoms in SPL. Plus we are still waiting for points to "transfer" to kespa players, but since they are very isolated (most only play proleague) it takes time. Please untwist your panties and chill, nobody forces anyone to use it.

And no that is not what statistical methods are used for, plus this is "raw" stats, the interpretation is up to you, plus I already stated that currently the system is very shaky (due to the change from WoL to HotS).

Plus this Terran surge is based a lot on HotS, of which we have very few matches.

In regards to Last, please tell me which historical data that indicates that he is a beast of another world:
http://aligulac.com/players/137-Last/results/


Don't publish ratings untill you improve this methodology. LIke what is the point of publishing heavily flawed statistics? This just making aligulac looks foolish, which is unfortunate.


We have discussed this, if we should just "shut down" for 6 months untill we have more data, but then again, HotS is just a big patch to the game. When is it okay to publish ratings then? How much data is enough? How should we account for players we "know" are really good but haven't proven it (lots of Kespa players falls in this category)? What if they actually aren't and peoples bias shines through.

Say what you will about the method, it is really strong in predicting matches, but strength lies in numbers, not in single brackets. But that being said, we are always trying to improve.

Your percentage calculation is really messed up. Last doesn't have a 89% chance to lose the next Bo5. Even if he is a huge underdog.



Also, I don't really care who wins and who loses. I just would prefer for both the semis and the finals to be non-mirrors.
League of Legends EU West, Platinum III | Yousei Teikoku is the best thing that has ever happened to music.
Grovbolle
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
Denmark3813 Posts
March 17 2013 11:57 GMT
#112
On March 17 2013 20:45 Shikyo wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 17 2013 20:12 Grovbolle wrote:
On March 17 2013 20:07 Hider wrote:
On March 17 2013 19:49 Grovbolle wrote:
On March 17 2013 19:39 Hider wrote:
On March 17 2013 19:36 Grovbolle wrote:
                      Win    Top 2    Top 4    Top 8    
--------------------------------------------------------
Life 36.71% 29.26% 22.72% 11.30%
PartinG 22.53% 20.74% 24.93% 31.80%
Bomber 16.91% 6.93% 57.97% 18.19%
Rain 14.34% 19.05% 36.02% 30.59%
Flash 3.28% 9.47% 19.06% 68.20%
INnoVation 2.89% 7.69% 20.00% 69.41%
MC 2.49% 4.28% 11.41% 81.81%
Last 0.84% 2.57% 7.89% 88.70%
Estimated by Aligulac. Modify.

To those interested, I left out anything but the last players, please remember that this is mostly based on WoL and Kespa pros are a lot more "hidden" from the general population.


Innovation 2%?

This is completely useless. Statistical methods are supposed to help when quantifying stuff is to complicated to do subjectively. If you can't improve the methodology, aligulac is just a waste of time.


Based on what?

I agree that innovation is underrated in this, but we can't just magically up his rating. It will rise as his results improves. He loses to too many randoms in SPL. Plus we are still waiting for points to "transfer" to kespa players, but since they are very isolated (most only play proleague) it takes time. Please untwist your panties and chill, nobody forces anyone to use it.

And no that is not what statistical methods are used for, plus this is "raw" stats, the interpretation is up to you, plus I already stated that currently the system is very shaky (due to the change from WoL to HotS).

Plus this Terran surge is based a lot on HotS, of which we have very few matches.

In regards to Last, please tell me which historical data that indicates that he is a beast of another world:
http://aligulac.com/players/137-Last/results/


Don't publish ratings untill you improve this methodology. LIke what is the point of publishing heavily flawed statistics? This just making aligulac looks foolish, which is unfortunate.


We have discussed this, if we should just "shut down" for 6 months untill we have more data, but then again, HotS is just a big patch to the game. When is it okay to publish ratings then? How much data is enough? How should we account for players we "know" are really good but haven't proven it (lots of Kespa players falls in this category)? What if they actually aren't and peoples bias shines through.

Say what you will about the method, it is really strong in predicting matches, but strength lies in numbers, not in single brackets. But that being said, we are always trying to improve.

Your percentage calculation is really messed up. Last doesn't have a 89% chance to lose the next Bo5. Even if he is a huge underdog.



Also, I don't really care who wins and who loses. I just would prefer for both the semis and the finals to be non-mirrors.


Please remember this is based mostly on WoL results still. Would you favor last over life in WoL ?

    (2035) Life  0-0  Last (1466)    
-------------------------------------
38.81% 3-0 0-3 1.98%
31.50% 3-1 1-3 4.33%
17.05% 3-2 2-3 6.32%
-------------------------------------
87.36% 12.64%

Median outcome: Life 3-1 Last
Estimated by Aligulac. Modify.
Lies, damned lies and statistics: http://aligulac.com
MCDayC
Profile Joined March 2011
United Kingdom14464 Posts
March 17 2013 11:57 GMT
#113
Life to win please.
VERY FRAGILE, LIKE A BABY PANDA EGG
kafkaesque
Profile Blog Joined November 2011
Germany2006 Posts
March 17 2013 11:59 GMT
#114
So EG sent 4 players whose combined efforts were enough to net them one map win?

Call me Debbie Downer or Negative Nancy, but foreign SC2 seems rather dire...
| (• ◡•)|╯ ╰(❍ᴥ❍ʋ)
gamerdude12345
Profile Joined August 2011
Korea (South)378 Posts
March 17 2013 12:00 GMT
#115
On March 17 2013 20:57 Grovbolle wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 17 2013 20:45 Shikyo wrote:
On March 17 2013 20:12 Grovbolle wrote:
On March 17 2013 20:07 Hider wrote:
On March 17 2013 19:49 Grovbolle wrote:
On March 17 2013 19:39 Hider wrote:
On March 17 2013 19:36 Grovbolle wrote:
                      Win    Top 2    Top 4    Top 8    
--------------------------------------------------------
Life 36.71% 29.26% 22.72% 11.30%
PartinG 22.53% 20.74% 24.93% 31.80%
Bomber 16.91% 6.93% 57.97% 18.19%
Rain 14.34% 19.05% 36.02% 30.59%
Flash 3.28% 9.47% 19.06% 68.20%
INnoVation 2.89% 7.69% 20.00% 69.41%
MC 2.49% 4.28% 11.41% 81.81%
Last 0.84% 2.57% 7.89% 88.70%
Estimated by Aligulac. Modify.

To those interested, I left out anything but the last players, please remember that this is mostly based on WoL and Kespa pros are a lot more "hidden" from the general population.


Innovation 2%?

This is completely useless. Statistical methods are supposed to help when quantifying stuff is to complicated to do subjectively. If you can't improve the methodology, aligulac is just a waste of time.


Based on what?

I agree that innovation is underrated in this, but we can't just magically up his rating. It will rise as his results improves. He loses to too many randoms in SPL. Plus we are still waiting for points to "transfer" to kespa players, but since they are very isolated (most only play proleague) it takes time. Please untwist your panties and chill, nobody forces anyone to use it.

And no that is not what statistical methods are used for, plus this is "raw" stats, the interpretation is up to you, plus I already stated that currently the system is very shaky (due to the change from WoL to HotS).

Plus this Terran surge is based a lot on HotS, of which we have very few matches.

In regards to Last, please tell me which historical data that indicates that he is a beast of another world:
http://aligulac.com/players/137-Last/results/


Don't publish ratings untill you improve this methodology. LIke what is the point of publishing heavily flawed statistics? This just making aligulac looks foolish, which is unfortunate.


We have discussed this, if we should just "shut down" for 6 months untill we have more data, but then again, HotS is just a big patch to the game. When is it okay to publish ratings then? How much data is enough? How should we account for players we "know" are really good but haven't proven it (lots of Kespa players falls in this category)? What if they actually aren't and peoples bias shines through.

Say what you will about the method, it is really strong in predicting matches, but strength lies in numbers, not in single brackets. But that being said, we are always trying to improve.

Your percentage calculation is really messed up. Last doesn't have a 89% chance to lose the next Bo5. Even if he is a huge underdog.



Also, I don't really care who wins and who loses. I just would prefer for both the semis and the finals to be non-mirrors.


Please remember this is based mostly on WoL results still. Would you favor last over life in WoL ?

    (2035) Life  0-0  Last (1466)    
-------------------------------------
38.81% 3-0 0-3 1.98%
31.50% 3-1 1-3 4.33%
17.05% 3-2 2-3 6.32%
-------------------------------------
87.36% 12.64%

Median outcome: Life 3-1 Last
Estimated by Aligulac. Modify.


why use wings of liberty results to judge a HotS tournament? I don't think jinro is the best foreigner just because he got to the ro4 a few years ago.
'One does not simply walk into Mordor"
Godwrath
Profile Joined August 2012
Spain10146 Posts
March 17 2013 12:00 GMT
#116
I have to give it to MLG. Really good job with the VODs. Really easy to access, and you also avoid downtimes. It's great from an european standpoint since i missed half the matches. Thank you for making this happen !
Grovbolle
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
Denmark3813 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-03-17 13:29:37
March 17 2013 12:01 GMT
#117
On March 17 2013 20:59 kafkaesque wrote:
So EG sent 4 players whose combined efforts were enough to net them one map win?

Call me Debbie Downer or Negative Nancy, but foreign SC2 seems rather dire...

The best player won every single match in Ro32. (More or less)
Seems like a succes to me. Foreigners are worse than koreans, as they should be all things considered.
Edit: 2K post... What a waste
Lies, damned lies and statistics: http://aligulac.com
Topdoller
Profile Joined March 2011
United Kingdom3860 Posts
March 17 2013 12:01 GMT
#118
I will be happy if either Bogus, Life or Rain win it. Those player play the game with style
opterown *
Profile Blog Joined August 2011
Australia54784 Posts
March 17 2013 12:01 GMT
#119
On March 17 2013 20:07 Hider wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 17 2013 19:49 Grovbolle wrote:
On March 17 2013 19:39 Hider wrote:
On March 17 2013 19:36 Grovbolle wrote:
                      Win    Top 2    Top 4    Top 8    
--------------------------------------------------------
Life 36.71% 29.26% 22.72% 11.30%
PartinG 22.53% 20.74% 24.93% 31.80%
Bomber 16.91% 6.93% 57.97% 18.19%
Rain 14.34% 19.05% 36.02% 30.59%
Flash 3.28% 9.47% 19.06% 68.20%
INnoVation 2.89% 7.69% 20.00% 69.41%
MC 2.49% 4.28% 11.41% 81.81%
Last 0.84% 2.57% 7.89% 88.70%
Estimated by Aligulac. Modify.

To those interested, I left out anything but the last players, please remember that this is mostly based on WoL and Kespa pros are a lot more "hidden" from the general population.


Innovation 2%?

This is completely useless. Statistical methods are supposed to help when quantifying stuff is to complicated to do subjectively. If you can't improve the methodology, aligulac is just a waste of time.


Based on what?

I agree that innovation is underrated in this, but we can't just magically up his rating. It will rise as his results improves. He loses to too many randoms in SPL. Plus we are still waiting for points to "transfer" to kespa players, but since they are very isolated (most only play proleague) it takes time. Please untwist your panties and chill, nobody forces anyone to use it.

And no that is not what statistical methods are used for, plus this is "raw" stats, the interpretation is up to you, plus I already stated that currently the system is very shaky (due to the change from WoL to HotS).

Plus this Terran surge is based a lot on HotS, of which we have very few matches.

In regards to Last, please tell me which historical data that indicates that he is a beast of another world:
http://aligulac.com/players/137-Last/results/


Don't publish ratings untill you improve this methodology. LIke what is the point of publishing heavily flawed statistics? This just making aligulac looks foolish, which is unfortunate.

useless? this rating is a better predictor of results than any human on TL (liquibets)
ModeratorRetired LR Bonjwa
TL+ Member
Tobblish
Profile Joined August 2011
Sweden6404 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-03-17 12:03:28
March 17 2013 12:02 GMT
#120
On March 17 2013 20:59 kafkaesque wrote:
So EG sent 4 players whose combined efforts were enough to net them one map win?

Call me Debbie Downer or Negative Nancy, but foreign SC2 seems rather dire...


Sen, Feast, SaSe, Gosuuser and Bly managed to grab a map win each.
I would rather say that EG players didn't preform.
The curse is real
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