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The usual: Don't flame casters or players. Don't discuss balance in this or any LR thread. Don't call your fellow posters idiots. Be excited, happy and entertained. |
On March 17 2013 21:02 Tobblish wrote:Show nested quote +On March 17 2013 20:59 kafkaesque wrote:
So EG sent 4 players whose combined efforts were enough to net them one map win?
Call me Debbie Downer or Negative Nancy, but foreign SC2 seems rather dire... Sen, Feast, SaSe, Gosuuser managed to grab a map win each. I would rather say that EG players didn't preform.
And bly.
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On March 17 2013 21:02 Godwrath wrote:Show nested quote +On March 17 2013 21:02 Tobblish wrote:On March 17 2013 20:59 kafkaesque wrote:
So EG sent 4 players whose combined efforts were enough to net them one map win?
Call me Debbie Downer or Negative Nancy, but foreign SC2 seems rather dire... Sen, Feast, SaSe, Gosuuser managed to grab a map win each. I would rather say that EG players didn't preform. And bly.
Damn you are fast, edited ^^
Also on the note, it's all about how good each player is in each match up.
Hell just look how Bomber destroyed Taeja / Jjakji vs MKP.
Not much difference in that and Leenock vs Babyknight / Innovation vs Huk.
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East Gorteau22261 Posts
On March 17 2013 21:00 gamerdude12345 wrote:Show nested quote +On March 17 2013 20:57 Grovbolle wrote:On March 17 2013 20:45 Shikyo wrote:On March 17 2013 20:12 Grovbolle wrote:On March 17 2013 20:07 Hider wrote:On March 17 2013 19:49 Grovbolle wrote:On March 17 2013 19:39 Hider wrote:On March 17 2013 19:36 Grovbolle wrote: Win Top 2 Top 4 Top 8
--------------------------------------------------------
Life 36.71% 29.26% 22.72% 11.30%
PartinG 22.53% 20.74% 24.93% 31.80%
Bomber 16.91% 6.93% 57.97% 18.19%
Rain 14.34% 19.05% 36.02% 30.59%
Flash 3.28% 9.47% 19.06% 68.20%
INnoVation 2.89% 7.69% 20.00% 69.41%
MC 2.49% 4.28% 11.41% 81.81%
Last 0.84% 2.57% 7.89% 88.70% To those interested, I left out anything but the last players, please remember that this is mostly based on WoL and Kespa pros are a lot more "hidden" from the general population. Innovation 2%? This is completely useless. Statistical methods are supposed to help when quantifying stuff is to complicated to do subjectively. If you can't improve the methodology, aligulac is just a waste of time. Based on what? I agree that innovation is underrated in this, but we can't just magically up his rating. It will rise as his results improves. He loses to too many randoms in SPL. Plus we are still waiting for points to "transfer" to kespa players, but since they are very isolated (most only play proleague) it takes time. Please untwist your panties and chill, nobody forces anyone to use it. And no that is not what statistical methods are used for, plus this is "raw" stats, the interpretation is up to you, plus I already stated that currently the system is very shaky (due to the change from WoL to HotS). Plus this Terran surge is based a lot on HotS, of which we have very few matches. In regards to Last, please tell me which historical data that indicates that he is a beast of another world: http://aligulac.com/players/137-Last/results/ Don't publish ratings untill you improve this methodology. LIke what is the point of publishing heavily flawed statistics? This just making aligulac looks foolish, which is unfortunate. We have discussed this, if we should just "shut down" for 6 months untill we have more data, but then again, HotS is just a big patch to the game. When is it okay to publish ratings then? How much data is enough? How should we account for players we "know" are really good but haven't proven it (lots of Kespa players falls in this category)? What if they actually aren't and peoples bias shines through. Say what you will about the method, it is really strong in predicting matches, but strength lies in numbers, not in single brackets. But that being said, we are always trying to improve. Your percentage calculation is really messed up. Last doesn't have a 89% chance to lose the next Bo5. Even if he is a huge underdog. Also, I don't really care who wins and who loses. I just would prefer for both the semis and the finals to be non-mirrors. Please remember this is based mostly on WoL results still. Would you favor last over life in WoL ? (2035) Life 0-0 Last (1466)
-------------------------------------
38.81% 3-0 0-3 1.98%
31.50% 3-1 1-3 4.33%
17.05% 3-2 2-3 6.32%
-------------------------------------
87.36% 12.64%
Median outcome: Life 3-1 Last why use wings of liberty results to judge a HotS tournament? I don't think jinro is the best foreigner just because he got to the ro4 a few years ago.
I think this has been answered; a bunch of times each time someone posts an Aligulac prediction.
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On March 17 2013 21:00 gamerdude12345 wrote:
why use wings of liberty results to judge a HotS tournament? I don't think jinro is the best foreigner just because he got to the ro4 a few years ago.
You seem not to understand clearly. TheBB explained the system there : http://aligulac.com/faq/
It's not that we use WoL results to predict HotS but rather that there hasn't been enough games played per player on HotS for the current ranking to be accurate enough. Furthermore, in the case of Last as a KeSPA player he doesn't have enough games to have reached his HotS rating especially considering he is doing very poorly in ProLeague which undermine his rating.
Edit : And by accurate enough, I mean accurate enough to prevent criticism such as the one above.
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On March 17 2013 20:42 Inzan1ty wrote:
I totally see Flash vs Life finals incoming
The ultimate weapon grows and grows, his dominance cant be avoided, the kid will duke it out with eSF`s own ultimate weapon Life though, resembling the good ole days of Flash vs JD
its like a battle in Dragon Ball Z, lol.
Because that sounds so good.
You're probably getting a Last vs Parting final.
On March 17 2013 21:06 Zealously wrote:Show nested quote +On March 17 2013 21:00 gamerdude12345 wrote:On March 17 2013 20:57 Grovbolle wrote:On March 17 2013 20:45 Shikyo wrote:On March 17 2013 20:12 Grovbolle wrote:On March 17 2013 20:07 Hider wrote:On March 17 2013 19:49 Grovbolle wrote:On March 17 2013 19:39 Hider wrote:On March 17 2013 19:36 Grovbolle wrote: Win Top 2 Top 4 Top 8
--------------------------------------------------------
Life 36.71% 29.26% 22.72% 11.30%
PartinG 22.53% 20.74% 24.93% 31.80%
Bomber 16.91% 6.93% 57.97% 18.19%
Rain 14.34% 19.05% 36.02% 30.59%
Flash 3.28% 9.47% 19.06% 68.20%
INnoVation 2.89% 7.69% 20.00% 69.41%
MC 2.49% 4.28% 11.41% 81.81%
Last 0.84% 2.57% 7.89% 88.70% To those interested, I left out anything but the last players, please remember that this is mostly based on WoL and Kespa pros are a lot more "hidden" from the general population. Innovation 2%? This is completely useless. Statistical methods are supposed to help when quantifying stuff is to complicated to do subjectively. If you can't improve the methodology, aligulac is just a waste of time. Based on what? I agree that innovation is underrated in this, but we can't just magically up his rating. It will rise as his results improves. He loses to too many randoms in SPL. Plus we are still waiting for points to "transfer" to kespa players, but since they are very isolated (most only play proleague) it takes time. Please untwist your panties and chill, nobody forces anyone to use it. And no that is not what statistical methods are used for, plus this is "raw" stats, the interpretation is up to you, plus I already stated that currently the system is very shaky (due to the change from WoL to HotS). Plus this Terran surge is based a lot on HotS, of which we have very few matches. In regards to Last, please tell me which historical data that indicates that he is a beast of another world: http://aligulac.com/players/137-Last/results/ Don't publish ratings untill you improve this methodology. LIke what is the point of publishing heavily flawed statistics? This just making aligulac looks foolish, which is unfortunate. We have discussed this, if we should just "shut down" for 6 months untill we have more data, but then again, HotS is just a big patch to the game. When is it okay to publish ratings then? How much data is enough? How should we account for players we "know" are really good but haven't proven it (lots of Kespa players falls in this category)? What if they actually aren't and peoples bias shines through. Say what you will about the method, it is really strong in predicting matches, but strength lies in numbers, not in single brackets. But that being said, we are always trying to improve. Your percentage calculation is really messed up. Last doesn't have a 89% chance to lose the next Bo5. Even if he is a huge underdog. Also, I don't really care who wins and who loses. I just would prefer for both the semis and the finals to be non-mirrors. Please remember this is based mostly on WoL results still. Would you favor last over life in WoL ? (2035) Life 0-0 Last (1466)
-------------------------------------
38.81% 3-0 0-3 1.98%
31.50% 3-1 1-3 4.33%
17.05% 3-2 2-3 6.32%
-------------------------------------
87.36% 12.64%
Median outcome: Life 3-1 Last why use wings of liberty results to judge a HotS tournament? I don't think jinro is the best foreigner just because he got to the ro4 a few years ago. I think this has been answered; a bunch of times each time someone posts an Aligulac prediction.
Yeah basically everytime someone posts this people go:
"Oh my god your stats suck. I cant believe <favouriteplayerxyz> isn't #1. Did your system not watch him play last round?
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On March 17 2013 21:10 bittman wrote:Show nested quote +On March 17 2013 20:42 Inzan1ty wrote:
I totally see Flash vs Life finals incoming
The ultimate weapon grows and grows, his dominance cant be avoided, the kid will duke it out with eSF`s own ultimate weapon Life though, resembling the good ole days of Flash vs JD
its like a battle in Dragon Ball Z, lol.
Because that sounds so good. You're probably getting a Last vs Parting final. Show nested quote +On March 17 2013 21:06 Zealously wrote:On March 17 2013 21:00 gamerdude12345 wrote:On March 17 2013 20:57 Grovbolle wrote:On March 17 2013 20:45 Shikyo wrote:On March 17 2013 20:12 Grovbolle wrote:On March 17 2013 20:07 Hider wrote:On March 17 2013 19:49 Grovbolle wrote:On March 17 2013 19:39 Hider wrote:On March 17 2013 19:36 Grovbolle wrote: Win Top 2 Top 4 Top 8
--------------------------------------------------------
Life 36.71% 29.26% 22.72% 11.30%
PartinG 22.53% 20.74% 24.93% 31.80%
Bomber 16.91% 6.93% 57.97% 18.19%
Rain 14.34% 19.05% 36.02% 30.59%
Flash 3.28% 9.47% 19.06% 68.20%
INnoVation 2.89% 7.69% 20.00% 69.41%
MC 2.49% 4.28% 11.41% 81.81%
Last 0.84% 2.57% 7.89% 88.70% To those interested, I left out anything but the last players, please remember that this is mostly based on WoL and Kespa pros are a lot more "hidden" from the general population. Innovation 2%? This is completely useless. Statistical methods are supposed to help when quantifying stuff is to complicated to do subjectively. If you can't improve the methodology, aligulac is just a waste of time. Based on what? I agree that innovation is underrated in this, but we can't just magically up his rating. It will rise as his results improves. He loses to too many randoms in SPL. Plus we are still waiting for points to "transfer" to kespa players, but since they are very isolated (most only play proleague) it takes time. Please untwist your panties and chill, nobody forces anyone to use it. And no that is not what statistical methods are used for, plus this is "raw" stats, the interpretation is up to you, plus I already stated that currently the system is very shaky (due to the change from WoL to HotS). Plus this Terran surge is based a lot on HotS, of which we have very few matches. In regards to Last, please tell me which historical data that indicates that he is a beast of another world: http://aligulac.com/players/137-Last/results/ Don't publish ratings untill you improve this methodology. LIke what is the point of publishing heavily flawed statistics? This just making aligulac looks foolish, which is unfortunate. We have discussed this, if we should just "shut down" for 6 months untill we have more data, but then again, HotS is just a big patch to the game. When is it okay to publish ratings then? How much data is enough? How should we account for players we "know" are really good but haven't proven it (lots of Kespa players falls in this category)? What if they actually aren't and peoples bias shines through. Say what you will about the method, it is really strong in predicting matches, but strength lies in numbers, not in single brackets. But that being said, we are always trying to improve. Your percentage calculation is really messed up. Last doesn't have a 89% chance to lose the next Bo5. Even if he is a huge underdog. Also, I don't really care who wins and who loses. I just would prefer for both the semis and the finals to be non-mirrors. Please remember this is based mostly on WoL results still. Would you favor last over life in WoL ? (2035) Life 0-0 Last (1466)
-------------------------------------
38.81% 3-0 0-3 1.98%
31.50% 3-1 1-3 4.33%
17.05% 3-2 2-3 6.32%
-------------------------------------
87.36% 12.64%
Median outcome: Life 3-1 Last why use wings of liberty results to judge a HotS tournament? I don't think jinro is the best foreigner just because he got to the ro4 a few years ago. I think this has been answered; a bunch of times each time someone posts an Aligulac prediction. Yeah basically everytime someone posts this people go: "Oh my god your stats suck. I cant believe <favouriteplayerxyz> isn't #1. Did your system not watch him play last round?
Well, Life is still likely to win in those stats. But 87% really sounds awfully little for how much better he is than everybody else in the world. 
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this is the most monstrous ro8 we've seen in a long time, even including gsl tourneys. just look at that lineup
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Sucks that all but one of the KeSPA players are on the same side of the bracket. I guess the finals will be another one-sided roflstomp with Flash/Rain/Bogus/Parting eliminating each other early 
I mean I just don't see the likes of Life or MC getting past Flash or Bogus.
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On March 17 2013 21:10 bittman wrote:Show nested quote +On March 17 2013 21:06 Zealously wrote:On March 17 2013 21:00 gamerdude12345 wrote:On March 17 2013 20:57 Grovbolle wrote:On March 17 2013 20:45 Shikyo wrote:On March 17 2013 20:12 Grovbolle wrote:On March 17 2013 20:07 Hider wrote:On March 17 2013 19:49 Grovbolle wrote:On March 17 2013 19:39 Hider wrote:On March 17 2013 19:36 Grovbolle wrote: Win Top 2 Top 4 Top 8
--------------------------------------------------------
Life 36.71% 29.26% 22.72% 11.30%
PartinG 22.53% 20.74% 24.93% 31.80%
Bomber 16.91% 6.93% 57.97% 18.19%
Rain 14.34% 19.05% 36.02% 30.59%
Flash 3.28% 9.47% 19.06% 68.20%
INnoVation 2.89% 7.69% 20.00% 69.41%
MC 2.49% 4.28% 11.41% 81.81%
Last 0.84% 2.57% 7.89% 88.70% To those interested, I left out anything but the last players, please remember that this is mostly based on WoL and Kespa pros are a lot more "hidden" from the general population. Innovation 2%? This is completely useless. Statistical methods are supposed to help when quantifying stuff is to complicated to do subjectively. If you can't improve the methodology, aligulac is just a waste of time. Based on what? I agree that innovation is underrated in this, but we can't just magically up his rating. It will rise as his results improves. He loses to too many randoms in SPL. Plus we are still waiting for points to "transfer" to kespa players, but since they are very isolated (most only play proleague) it takes time. Please untwist your panties and chill, nobody forces anyone to use it. And no that is not what statistical methods are used for, plus this is "raw" stats, the interpretation is up to you, plus I already stated that currently the system is very shaky (due to the change from WoL to HotS). Plus this Terran surge is based a lot on HotS, of which we have very few matches. In regards to Last, please tell me which historical data that indicates that he is a beast of another world: http://aligulac.com/players/137-Last/results/ Don't publish ratings untill you improve this methodology. LIke what is the point of publishing heavily flawed statistics? This just making aligulac looks foolish, which is unfortunate. We have discussed this, if we should just "shut down" for 6 months untill we have more data, but then again, HotS is just a big patch to the game. When is it okay to publish ratings then? How much data is enough? How should we account for players we "know" are really good but haven't proven it (lots of Kespa players falls in this category)? What if they actually aren't and peoples bias shines through. Say what you will about the method, it is really strong in predicting matches, but strength lies in numbers, not in single brackets. But that being said, we are always trying to improve. Your percentage calculation is really messed up. Last doesn't have a 89% chance to lose the next Bo5. Even if he is a huge underdog. Also, I don't really care who wins and who loses. I just would prefer for both the semis and the finals to be non-mirrors. Please remember this is based mostly on WoL results still. Would you favor last over life in WoL ? (2035) Life 0-0 Last (1466)
-------------------------------------
38.81% 3-0 0-3 1.98%
31.50% 3-1 1-3 4.33%
17.05% 3-2 2-3 6.32%
-------------------------------------
87.36% 12.64%
Median outcome: Life 3-1 Last why use wings of liberty results to judge a HotS tournament? I don't think jinro is the best foreigner just because he got to the ro4 a few years ago. I think this has been answered; a bunch of times each time someone posts an Aligulac prediction. Yeah basically everytime someone posts this people go: "Oh my god your stats suck. I cant believe <favouriteplayerxyz> isn't #1. Did your system not watch him play last round?
LOL thank you for this. Yes we are a bit behind schedule implementing the automatic stream-watcher and twitch-chat-reader system that will allow us to give points to hyped players. Hopefully when it's done the ratings will tell everyone what they already know so that we have achieved total uselessness.
I'm also excited about the upcoming reddit witchhunt analysis tool that will automatically dump the rating of a player who is caught doing anything slightly controversial.
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On March 17 2013 21:18 revoN wrote:Sucks that all but one of the KeSPA players are on the same side of the bracket. I guess the finals will be another one-sided roflstomp with Flash/Rain/Bogus/Parting eliminating each other early
Yeah, because that happened so often. Number of Kespa final wins in the last year: 2. Amount of tournaments: 99999999999.
It will surely not be "another" one of these.
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On March 17 2013 21:24 Big J wrote:Show nested quote +On March 17 2013 21:18 revoN wrote:Sucks that all but one of the KeSPA players are on the same side of the bracket. I guess the finals will be another one-sided roflstomp with Flash/Rain/Bogus/Parting eliminating each other early Yeah, because that happened so often. Number of Kespa final wins in the last year: 2. Amount of tournaments: 99999999999. It will surely not be "another" one of these.
I was talking about this tournament. Have you seen their play?
Do you really believe Life or MC stands a chance? All the best players are on the same side of the bracket. No need to get so defensive just because they all happen to be KeSPA players.
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On March 17 2013 21:25 revoN wrote:Show nested quote +On March 17 2013 21:24 Big J wrote:On March 17 2013 21:18 revoN wrote:Sucks that all but one of the KeSPA players are on the same side of the bracket. I guess the finals will be another one-sided roflstomp with Flash/Rain/Bogus/Parting eliminating each other early Yeah, because that happened so often. Number of Kespa final wins in the last year: 2. Amount of tournaments: 99999999999. It will surely not be "another" one of these. I was talking about this tournament. Have you seen their play? Do you really believe Life or MC stands a chance? All the best players are on the same side of the bracket. No need to get so defensive just because they all happen to be KeSPA players.
I think Bomber's play so far has been outstanding. I don't know what you want to take away from him.
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On March 17 2013 21:10 bittman wrote:Show nested quote +On March 17 2013 20:42 Inzan1ty wrote:
I totally see Flash vs Life finals incoming
The ultimate weapon grows and grows, his dominance cant be avoided, the kid will duke it out with eSF`s own ultimate weapon Life though, resembling the good ole days of Flash vs JD
its like a battle in Dragon Ball Z, lol.
Because that sounds so good.
You're probably getting a Last vs Parting final.Show nested quote +On March 17 2013 21:06 Zealously wrote:On March 17 2013 21:00 gamerdude12345 wrote:On March 17 2013 20:57 Grovbolle wrote:On March 17 2013 20:45 Shikyo wrote:On March 17 2013 20:12 Grovbolle wrote:On March 17 2013 20:07 Hider wrote:On March 17 2013 19:49 Grovbolle wrote:On March 17 2013 19:39 Hider wrote:On March 17 2013 19:36 Grovbolle wrote: Win Top 2 Top 4 Top 8
--------------------------------------------------------
Life 36.71% 29.26% 22.72% 11.30%
PartinG 22.53% 20.74% 24.93% 31.80%
Bomber 16.91% 6.93% 57.97% 18.19%
Rain 14.34% 19.05% 36.02% 30.59%
Flash 3.28% 9.47% 19.06% 68.20%
INnoVation 2.89% 7.69% 20.00% 69.41%
MC 2.49% 4.28% 11.41% 81.81%
Last 0.84% 2.57% 7.89% 88.70% To those interested, I left out anything but the last players, please remember that this is mostly based on WoL and Kespa pros are a lot more "hidden" from the general population. Innovation 2%? This is completely useless. Statistical methods are supposed to help when quantifying stuff is to complicated to do subjectively. If you can't improve the methodology, aligulac is just a waste of time. Based on what? I agree that innovation is underrated in this, but we can't just magically up his rating. It will rise as his results improves. He loses to too many randoms in SPL. Plus we are still waiting for points to "transfer" to kespa players, but since they are very isolated (most only play proleague) it takes time. Please untwist your panties and chill, nobody forces anyone to use it. And no that is not what statistical methods are used for, plus this is "raw" stats, the interpretation is up to you, plus I already stated that currently the system is very shaky (due to the change from WoL to HotS). Plus this Terran surge is based a lot on HotS, of which we have very few matches. In regards to Last, please tell me which historical data that indicates that he is a beast of another world: http://aligulac.com/players/137-Last/results/ Don't publish ratings untill you improve this methodology. LIke what is the point of publishing heavily flawed statistics? This just making aligulac looks foolish, which is unfortunate. We have discussed this, if we should just "shut down" for 6 months untill we have more data, but then again, HotS is just a big patch to the game. When is it okay to publish ratings then? How much data is enough? How should we account for players we "know" are really good but haven't proven it (lots of Kespa players falls in this category)? What if they actually aren't and peoples bias shines through. Say what you will about the method, it is really strong in predicting matches, but strength lies in numbers, not in single brackets. But that being said, we are always trying to improve. Your percentage calculation is really messed up. Last doesn't have a 89% chance to lose the next Bo5. Even if he is a huge underdog. Also, I don't really care who wins and who loses. I just would prefer for both the semis and the finals to be non-mirrors. Please remember this is based mostly on WoL results still. Would you favor last over life in WoL ? (2035) Life 0-0 Last (1466)
-------------------------------------
38.81% 3-0 0-3 1.98%
31.50% 3-1 1-3 4.33%
17.05% 3-2 2-3 6.32%
-------------------------------------
87.36% 12.64%
Median outcome: Life 3-1 Last why use wings of liberty results to judge a HotS tournament? I don't think jinro is the best foreigner just because he got to the ro4 a few years ago. I think this has been answered; a bunch of times each time someone posts an Aligulac prediction. Yeah basically everytime someone posts this people go: "Oh my god your stats suck. I cant believe <favouriteplayerxyz> isn't #1. Did your system not watch him play last round?
Nah, their showmatch ended without a winner, there is unfinished business to be done this weekend
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Put up the damn matchups, lazy OP...
20:30 EDT (-04:00)
RO16 Match 5 & 6
22:00 EDT (-04:00)
RO16 Match 7 & 8
Haven't even updated yesterday's matchup... What kind of professionalism are we talking here?
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On March 17 2013 21:25 revoN wrote:Show nested quote +On March 17 2013 21:24 Big J wrote:On March 17 2013 21:18 revoN wrote:Sucks that all but one of the KeSPA players are on the same side of the bracket. I guess the finals will be another one-sided roflstomp with Flash/Rain/Bogus/Parting eliminating each other early Yeah, because that happened so often. Number of Kespa final wins in the last year: 2. Amount of tournaments: 99999999999. It will surely not be "another" one of these. I was talking about this tournament. Have you seen their play? Do you really believe Life or MC stand a chance? All the best players are on the same side of the bracket.
No, I missed the two ESF vs Kespa matches,
Rain vs Jjakji
Innovation vs Leenock.
So the best Kespa Protoss can beat a Code B Terran and the best Kespa Terran beat Leenock. At least one of them was to be expected and the other one: yeah Leenock is quite good, so 3-0 is impressive. But you're going quite overboard if you word it like you did.
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opterown
Australia54784 Posts
On March 17 2013 21:32 ChiIIgetoutGG wrote:
Put up the damn matchups, lazy OP...
hahahahaha
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On March 17 2013 21:34 Big J wrote:Show nested quote +On March 17 2013 21:25 revoN wrote:On March 17 2013 21:24 Big J wrote:On March 17 2013 21:18 revoN wrote:Sucks that all but one of the KeSPA players are on the same side of the bracket. I guess the finals will be another one-sided roflstomp with Flash/Rain/Bogus/Parting eliminating each other early Yeah, because that happened so often. Number of Kespa final wins in the last year: 2. Amount of tournaments: 99999999999. It will surely not be "another" one of these. I was talking about this tournament. Have you seen their play? Do you really believe Life or MC stand a chance? All the best players are on the same side of the bracket. No, I missed the two ESF vs Kespa matches, Rain vs Jjakji Innovation vs Leenock. So the best Kespa Protoss can beat a Code B Terran and the best Kespa Terran beat Leenock. At least one of them was to be expected and the other one: yeah Leenock is quite good, so 3-0 is impressive. But you're going quite overboard if you word it like you did.
My poor poor code B terran. =(
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opterown
Australia54784 Posts
i'm not going to get mad over that joke statement of yours, and let you ponder how ridiculous it is
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On March 17 2013 21:18 TheBB wrote:Show nested quote +On March 17 2013 21:10 bittman wrote:On March 17 2013 21:06 Zealously wrote:On March 17 2013 21:00 gamerdude12345 wrote:On March 17 2013 20:57 Grovbolle wrote:On March 17 2013 20:45 Shikyo wrote:On March 17 2013 20:12 Grovbolle wrote:On March 17 2013 20:07 Hider wrote:On March 17 2013 19:49 Grovbolle wrote:On March 17 2013 19:39 Hider wrote:
[quote]
Innovation 2%?
This is completely useless. Statistical methods are supposed to help when quantifying stuff is to complicated to do subjectively. If you can't improve the methodology, aligulac is just a waste of time. Based on what? I agree that innovation is underrated in this, but we can't just magically up his rating. It will rise as his results improves. He loses to too many randoms in SPL. Plus we are still waiting for points to "transfer" to kespa players, but since they are very isolated (most only play proleague) it takes time. Please untwist your panties and chill, nobody forces anyone to use it. And no that is not what statistical methods are used for, plus this is "raw" stats, the interpretation is up to you, plus I already stated that currently the system is very shaky (due to the change from WoL to HotS). Plus this Terran surge is based a lot on HotS, of which we have very few matches. In regards to Last, please tell me which historical data that indicates that he is a beast of another world: http://aligulac.com/players/137-Last/results/ Don't publish ratings untill you improve this methodology. LIke what is the point of publishing heavily flawed statistics? This just making aligulac looks foolish, which is unfortunate. We have discussed this, if we should just "shut down" for 6 months untill we have more data, but then again, HotS is just a big patch to the game. When is it okay to publish ratings then? How much data is enough? How should we account for players we "know" are really good but haven't proven it (lots of Kespa players falls in this category)? What if they actually aren't and peoples bias shines through. Say what you will about the method, it is really strong in predicting matches, but strength lies in numbers, not in single brackets. But that being said, we are always trying to improve. Your percentage calculation is really messed up. Last doesn't have a 89% chance to lose the next Bo5. Even if he is a huge underdog. Also, I don't really care who wins and who loses. I just would prefer for both the semis and the finals to be non-mirrors. Please remember this is based mostly on WoL results still. Would you favor last over life in WoL ? (2035) Life 0-0 Last (1466)
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38.81% 3-0 0-3 1.98%
31.50% 3-1 1-3 4.33%
17.05% 3-2 2-3 6.32%
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87.36% 12.64%
Median outcome: Life 3-1 Last why use wings of liberty results to judge a HotS tournament? I don't think jinro is the best foreigner just because he got to the ro4 a few years ago. I think this has been answered; a bunch of times each time someone posts an Aligulac prediction. Yeah basically everytime someone posts this people go: "Oh my god your stats suck. I cant believe <favouriteplayerxyz> isn't #1. Did your system not watch him play last round? LOL thank you for this. Yes we are a bit behind schedule implementing the automatic stream-watcher and twitch-chat-reader system that will allow us to give points to hyped players. Hopefully when it's done the ratings will tell everyone what they already know so that we have achieved total uselessness. I'm also excited about the upcoming reddit witchhunt analysis tool that will automatically dump the rating of a player who is caught doing anything slightly controversial.
Foreigners are vastly over-rated on your list because they don't play enough top Koreans. Sen, Lucifron, and forGG (living in EU) especially.
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