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On December 09 2011 03:48 Let it Raine wrote:
yeah i cant imagine zerg being anything but the worst race to play in a bo1 scenario
literally can die just for not having a drone patrolling your ramp in the first 2 minutes of the game >_>
Why? 4/8 players that advanced so far are Zergs. Zergs do not have an inherent disadvantage in bo1.
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On December 09 2011 01:38 flowSthead wrote:Show nested quote +On December 09 2011 01:19 s4life wrote:On December 09 2011 01:07 flowSthead wrote:On December 09 2011 01:00 s4life wrote:On December 09 2011 00:56 flowSthead wrote:On December 09 2011 00:41 SeaSwift wrote:On December 09 2011 00:26 Twistacles wrote:
Ohhh it was bo1s? That explains idra/sen not qualifying. Kinda lame, though. The statistical difference between Bo1s, Bo3s and Bo5s is actually pretty small IIRC. If you are strong enough to 2-0 or 2-1 a player, chances are you are strong enough to 1-0 them, 3-0, 3-1 or 3-2 them. Sure, there is a little bit more variance, but not much. The statistical difference doesn't show the real difference though. Of course the person who wins the first game has a greater chance to take a best of three, or even a best of 5. That should be obvious to anyone that knows how to do math. But that doesn't mean that best of 1s are therefore equally fair to best of 3s. Even if it is a small difference, that difference can create big changes in a tournament. Look at DRG's recent interview about his Coda A match against Taeja. DRG said that he expected to lose the first map because it was Antiga Shipyard and he expected to win the other two, which he did. If it was a best of 1 then he would have straight up lost. That would probably be true if one bo1 decided whether your qualify or not, but 6 bo1s should be enough to remove the effect of random variables, like map selection and so on. But frankly, map selection shouldn't be a factor in mirror match ups, so your argument fails there, coz Idra lost two of them. Also, given how zergs are dominating the groups, I'd argue that if anything, maps have been fairly favorable to the swarm. I'm not attacking or defending Idra. I don't care about Idra. I am talking about best of 1s. And of course maps affect mirror matchups because you do not play the same way on every single map. Some maps are better for attacking and some maps favor the defender. Some maps are better for a roach infestor style, and some maps favor a ling/baneling/infestor style. Some maps favor mutalisk style (or if you are Nestea, all maps favor Mutalisk style). Are you arguing that a player is going to be good at every single style? Well, MVP probably is, but I would argue most players are not. So yes, maps can affect mirror match ups. But, using Idra as an example, consider this. Killer beat Orly and Idra, and Orly beat Idra. If these were all best of 3s that turned out the same except that Idra beat Killer, then Killer, Orly, and Idra would be in a 3way tie with a score of 4-2. Maybe Killer goes through anyway, maybe Orly or Idra do. The point I am making is that even in the case of a 4.7% difference in results (1 out of 21 sets of best of threes) the difference in the tournament can be significant if one player goes through and another doesn't. In a mirror match up, you either adapt and use the best build/style suited for the map in question, or simply you should lose, because your opponent would have shown to be better than you if he's able to use that. I think inflexibility should be punished.. perhaps you don't. That's only true if the differences are statistically significant, a point which you haven't proven yet. Here is a quote from a different thread: Show nested quote +On November 22 2011 10:57 Darkstar_X wrote:
Best of 1 is actually extremely indicative of a series.
Data from GSL May:
In Code A, of the 31 matches, the person who won the first game won the series 23 times (74.2%).
In Code S, of the 15 matches, the person who won the first game won the series 13 times (86.6%).
Data from GSL July:
In Code A, of the 31 matches, the person who won the first game won the series 24 times (77.4%).
In Code S, of the 15 matches, the person who won the first game won the series 14 times (93.3%).
If you look through any other seasons you will find similar. This shows that even best of one game series is unlikely to change the outcome of the winner. In fact, you could just watch the first game of a Code S match and have a 90% accuracy in predicting the winner of the match. You could argue that there is a chance of an upset, however, that is smaller than the variation that occurs at a tournament from other factors. Tournaments never tell you definitively who is a better player, just who won today. I happen to disagree that difference is not significant. A 15% or 25% difference in players of similar skill can have relatively significant differences in a tournament. That was kind of my point in using the example of a difference of 4.7%. I am not saying that it would definitively change things. I was saying that it could change things.
I am not saying it isn't significant either, but that needs to be proven. There are some differences to be sure, but to prove significance you'd need to perform a statistical test. Oh and I am not arguing in favor of Bo1s, I just don't think they had anything to do with the final results in this case, as the variance of the results with respect to the expectations was even lower than dreamhack, except for Idra -- which I think it is the main reason all this bickering started tbh.
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On December 09 2011 03:49 Grettin wrote:Yeah, this is what i was thinking too. I was really looking forward to seeing Xigua play but it was simply horrible and disappointing. Can't really say anything else about the others either.. But today Xigua seemed to play very well, since he took down 3 fairly decent players.
That event actually if I remember correctly a number of the actual qualified Chinese players had to withdraw. I didn't even really consider that IEM event a true tell of the Chinese scene.
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If Huk and Morrow don't make it out of that group, you know the format is terrible.
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On December 09 2011 04:03 SarcasmMonster wrote:Show nested quote +On December 09 2011 03:48 Let it Raine wrote:
yeah i cant imagine zerg being anything but the worst race to play in a bo1 scenario
literally can die just for not having a drone patrolling your ramp in the first 2 minutes of the game >_> Why? 4/8 players that advanced so far are Zergs. Zergs do not have an inherent disadvantage in bo1.
Yeah, I just can't believe the level of irrational whining and bickering that has brought us Idra's poor performance.. there is no end to it.
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On December 09 2011 04:09 s4life wrote:Show nested quote +On December 09 2011 04:03 SarcasmMonster wrote:On December 09 2011 03:48 Let it Raine wrote:
yeah i cant imagine zerg being anything but the worst race to play in a bo1 scenario
literally can die just for not having a drone patrolling your ramp in the first 2 minutes of the game >_> Why? 4/8 players that advanced so far are Zergs. Zergs do not have an inherent disadvantage in bo1. Yeah, I just can't believe the level of irrational whining and bickering that has brought us Idra's poor performance.. there is no end to it.
Idra lost so he must've gotten cheesed is the logic.
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On December 09 2011 04:06 Dexington wrote:
If Huk and Morrow don't make it out of that group, you know the format is terrible.
...so by that logic if they qualify we know the format is good? :-P
There will always be variance in any competition. There is obviously more variance in Bo1s than in B03/5/7/9s, but that does not mean that Idra or Sen would have qualified even if every match was a Bo7. The format is fair, but it has inherently more variance than if they used Bo3s. High variance is not inherently unfair.
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On December 09 2011 04:03 LuckyFool wrote:Show nested quote +On December 09 2011 03:49 Grettin wrote:Yeah, this is what i was thinking too. I was really looking forward to seeing Xigua play but it was simply horrible and disappointing. Can't really say anything else about the others either.. But today Xigua seemed to play very well, since he took down 3 fairly decent players. That event actually if I remember correctly a number of the actual qualified Chinese players had to withdraw. I didn't even really consider that IEM event a true tell of the Chinese scene.
Well of course it wasn't a true tell of the Chinese scene since it was just a one tournament, but Blizzcon also showed that Loner and Toodming weren't anywhere near top. Xigua won the Chinese qualifiers but couldn't attend, sadly.
But i'm glad Xigua and F91 are doing fine so far and i hope they can keep this up.
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On December 09 2011 04:13 Fischbacher wrote:Show nested quote +On December 09 2011 04:06 Dexington wrote:
If Huk and Morrow don't make it out of that group, you know the format is terrible. ...so by that logic if they qualify we know the format is good? :-P
That's not actually how logic works, you should consider going to school.
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On December 09 2011 04:09 Itsmedudeman wrote:Show nested quote +On December 09 2011 04:09 s4life wrote:On December 09 2011 04:03 SarcasmMonster wrote:On December 09 2011 03:48 Let it Raine wrote:
yeah i cant imagine zerg being anything but the worst race to play in a bo1 scenario
literally can die just for not having a drone patrolling your ramp in the first 2 minutes of the game >_> Why? 4/8 players that advanced so far are Zergs. Zergs do not have an inherent disadvantage in bo1. Yeah, I just can't believe the level of irrational whining and bickering that has brought us Idra's poor performance.. there is no end to it. Idra lost so he must've gotten cheesed is the logic.
Or he's just not as good as his fans make him out to be  I'm for one am always excited to see him lose and see the forums explode.
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On December 09 2011 03:07 SafeAsCheese wrote:Show nested quote +On December 09 2011 02:59 dgwow wrote:Idra and Sen probably wouldn't have won the tournament anyways, so it's not so bad. The guys who went 6-0 in their group are going to be scary The guys who went 6-0 (or 5-1) in their groups are not any more scary than sen or idra.
MVP is significantly scarier than Sen or Idra.
A three time GSL champion and four time finalist is significantly scarier than Sen or Idra.
I wouldn't hesitate to say that Sen and Idra both have zero chance of beating MVP in a bo5.
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On December 09 2011 03:07 SafeAsCheese wrote:Show nested quote +On December 09 2011 02:59 dgwow wrote:Idra and Sen probably wouldn't have won the tournament anyways, so it's not so bad. The guys who went 6-0 in their group are going to be scary The guys who went 6-0 (or 5-1) in their groups are not any more scary than sen or idra.
LOL what is this I don't even
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On December 09 2011 04:18 fourColo wrote:Show nested quote +On December 09 2011 04:13 Fischbacher wrote:On December 09 2011 04:06 Dexington wrote:
If Huk and Morrow don't make it out of that group, you know the format is terrible. ...so by that logic if they qualify we know the format is good? :-P That's not actually how logic works, you should consider going to school.
The statement "If Huk and Morrow don't make it out of that group, you know the format is terrible." implies that if it is false, then the format is not terrible. "Not terrible" could be good, but could also be anything from neutral ("we don't know if it is good or bad" type of statement) to good, or better than good.
While his statement is not completely correct, "good" does fall within the range...
On topic though, Huk and Morrow definitely should advance, although I'll be rooting for Snute over Morrow becuase my girlfriend is Norwegian and dislikes the Swedes =p (not really dislikes, but as a joke)
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Yeah people are just butthurt that their favorite white dude (or Sen), didn't make it out of group stages and "random" Europeans and Chinese players.
Get over it. The people that got out of group did it by winning a vast majority of the SIX games they have to play against all sorts of different opponents. Playing against six different people and tallying the results is a great measure of skill. Why do you think that GSL Code S, the most prestigious SC2 tournament in the entire world, uses group stages in TWO ROUNDS of the tournament?
Yes bo1s are volatile, but not if you're playing against 6 different people. Why did MVP 6-0 his group? Because he was miles above everyone else in it. Were Idra and Sen miles above everyone in their groups? Most definitely not. Not even cloooose . . . there are a few foreigner players (not that many, as Idra and Sen are top foreigner zergs) who are on their level, but there are literally NO foreigners on the level of MVP.
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On December 09 2011 04:09 Itsmedudeman wrote:Show nested quote +On December 09 2011 04:09 s4life wrote:On December 09 2011 04:03 SarcasmMonster wrote:On December 09 2011 03:48 Let it Raine wrote:
yeah i cant imagine zerg being anything but the worst race to play in a bo1 scenario
literally can die just for not having a drone patrolling your ramp in the first 2 minutes of the game >_> Why? 4/8 players that advanced so far are Zergs. Zergs do not have an inherent disadvantage in bo1. Yeah, I just can't believe the level of irrational whining and bickering that has brought us Idra's poor performance.. there is no end to it. Idra lost so he must've gotten cheesed is the logic.
I remember when Brat_OK took a game off of Nestea in Blizzcon and people were talking about close positions shattered Temple without even looking at the games...
Well, that was obviously wrong.
Not that I'm saying Idra wasn't cheesed, I'm just annoyed that people automatically assume Idra would only lose to cheese WITHOUT looking at the games (akaik, only his game against Titan was shown and that was really close). And besides, they're pro players, they should be able to handle cheese.
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Questions:
1. The WCG is not listed in the TL stream list?
2. When will Morrow play?
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On December 09 2011 04:34 HowardRoark wrote:
Questions:
1. The WCG is not listed in the TL stream list?
2. When will Morrow play?
It was today, as far as i know.
Morrow will play today/tomorrow according to calendar. One match at 15:00 KST. http://www.teamliquid.net/calendar/2011/12/#event_7630
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On December 09 2011 04:29 TheShadower wrote:Show nested quote +On December 09 2011 04:18 fourColo wrote:On December 09 2011 04:13 Fischbacher wrote:On December 09 2011 04:06 Dexington wrote:
If Huk and Morrow don't make it out of that group, you know the format is terrible. ...so by that logic if they qualify we know the format is good? :-P That's not actually how logic works, you should consider going to school. The statement "If Huk and Morrow don't make it out of that group, you know the format is terrible." implies that if it is false, then the format is not terrible. "Not terrible" could be good, but could also be anything from neutral ("we don't know if it is good or bad" type of statement) to good, or better than good. While his statement is not completely correct, "good" does fall within the range... On topic though, Huk and Morrow definitely should advance, although I'll be rooting for Snute over Morrow becuase my girlfriend is Norwegian and dislikes the Swedes =p (not really dislikes, but as a joke)
if huk and morrow fail the system will pretty mcuh be branded as terrible by everyone
if they get through there jsut doing what they should be doing and the msot credit theyll get is "despite a terrible system the good players still got through"
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EPT
