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[PL] Back from the Dead

Forum Index > News
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[PL] Back from the Dead

Text byHeyoka
July 24th, 2010 03:08 GMT
[image loading]
Playoffs are here. Time to party! At the beach!


Special Features
[image loading]

WeMade vs MBC

SKT1 vs CJ

Snorlax Corner

Game of the Week

Fandom

Statisfaction


As with last year, the playoffs began with a crash, a boom, and a bang all at once. Last weekend (and we truly do mean the entirety of last weekend) brought us a whopping six best of 7 matches, nearly as many games as proleague sees in a regular week with 12 teams competing.



All players rose to the occasion. This game is the life blood of these team houses after all. Their entire being, encased within the pixels that represent marines, zerglings, and zealots. Each game is a chance at greatness, a chance for immortality. A chance to earn the adoration of thousands, a moment to be successful under the spotlight.


Blood is to be shed. Players shall be destroyed, and players shall be reborn. Some will go home defeated, vow to never let themselves down again. They will become re-focused in the game that we all have passion for. Others will never recover.

This is how playoffs go. Here is their story.



WeMade vs MBC


Day 1
(P)Jaehoon > (T)Mind on Polaris Rhapsody
(P)Tyson < (Z)Shine on Fighting Spirit
(P)Pusan < (P)Pure on New Heartbreak Ridge
(T)Sea > (Z)RorO on Grand Line SE
(Z)Saint < (T)Midas on Judgment Day
(T)Light > (T)BaBy on Roadrunner
(Z)HyuN > (T)BaBy on Match Point
MBCGame HERO 4-3 WeMade FOX


As we said, players rose to the occasion. Jaehoon, a player certainly not accustomed to the bright lights, big stages, and pressure situations brought his all to open the series. 2 bases, with as many stargates, and a fleet beacon later he accomplished his goal. He took down the former Starleague winner, and put MBC on the board.

His hard earned win proved to be nearly in vain, as Shine took Tyson to town and Pusan's cheese was ineffective vs Pure. Sea's win over RorO brought the match back to even, but when Midas beat Saint (quite convincingly) the situation looked rather bad for the near-champions of Winner's League.

Plus, WeMade still had BaBy. They still had Major. With two games left, they still had NaDa, lurking in reserve as a crocodile waits for his prey.

[image loading]

Do you think MBC players ever make this joke?


MBC wasn't quite tapped out, however, and Light saw play in game 6. When he crushed BaBy (destroyed, maybe obliterated are better terms), the sun began to appear in HERO land. Sure enough, they found themselves in the deciding game, and with a team that fielded strong TvT against a team nearly certainly to send out a terran, Coach Ha picked...

HyuN. HyuN, the man with a 44% career winrate. The man who routinely shows trouble against ACE. A man who, while occasionally solid, is best described as inconsistent.

Although, some may remember HyuN as the zerg who was the first to defeat Flash in ZvT earlier this year in proleague. He brought a performance reminiscent of the time he was able to defeat bonjwa-argument-creator, and stopped BaBy for his second attempt in a row.

And so, with the first day, MBC took the lead.

Day 2
(T)Light > (T)BaBy on Roadrunner
(Z)Peace < (Z)Shine on Judgment Day
(P)Jaehoon < (T)Mind on Polaris Rhapsody
(T)Sea < (P)Pure on Match Point
(P)Tyson > (T)Midas on Fighting Spirit
(Z)HyuN < (Z)RorO on Grand Line SE

MBCGame HERO 2-4 WeMade FOX


Behind in the series, the first game of day 2 was somewhat of a repeat of the previous night. BaBy again faced off against Light, and his 14cc was shut down nearly instantly by some early marines from the MBC powerhouse.

Now in dire straights, WeMade kicked it into super high gear, and brought their ultimate A-game to the table. A rally on the benches surely happened, as they went on a tear to win the next 3 games straight in ways where their lead was never in question. Shine overcame Peace to end a Zerg civil war in pure bloodshed, Mind got revenge on Jaehoon with a surprise 2 rax build in response to a gas steal, and Pure ran the gamut of protoss tomfoolery. 12 nex, DT drops, and arbiters stopped Sea cold in his tracks and likely left him feeling wholly unsatisfied.

MBC refused to let them go so easily. They were nearly the champions of Round 3, who is WeMade to tell them to go home? Tyson boldly proclaimed that he didn't care who Midas was or what he had accomplished in years past, he was going to take him down. After a 12 nex, followed by defending a 2fac with the smallest of margins, he took control of the map and squeezed Midas out to gain some momentum back for his team.

HyuN, champion of the previous night, was unable to perform the same feat and when he was forced to tap, WeMade FOX walked home a winner to tie the series at one match a piece. The score would have to be settled with another day of play.

One more chance to become a champion.

Day 3
(P)Jaehoon > (Z)Shine on Judgment Day
(T)Sea < (Z)RorO on Fighting Spirit
(P)Tyson > (T)Mind on Polaris Rhapsody
(Z)HyuN < (T)Midas on Grand Line SE
(T)Light < (T)BaBy on Roadrunner
(P)Pusan > (P)Pure on New Heartbreak Ridge
(T)Light < (P)Pure on Match Point

MBCGame HERO 3-4 WeMade FOX


The day opened with Jaehoon (coming off a loss to Mind), and Shine (coming off a win from Peace). Shine, perhaps sensing weakness, went for a pool immediately after his 5th drone. A wise move maybe, he was playing Jaehoon who has relatively little experience in high pressure situations. Our protoss hero decided he was having none of it however. Whether through accident, luck, or unadulterated star sense, he warped a gateway after forge and then pulled his worker line to block the first lings from entering. Victory was merely a matter of time from there on, as with the previous days MBC began the series with a win.

Immediately after, RorO played Sea for the second time this weekend. Deciding he had enough with his performance last time, he got his head into game and let mutalisks say everything he needed to. He even morphed some of them into guardians! A game you should certainly see if picking out entertaining matches. The set tied at 1-1, they were on equal footing for the time being.

[image loading]

Oh, you mean Polaris Rhapsody?


Mind came out on Polaris Rhapsody for the third time in the weekend, this time to face Tyson (the lesser Jaehoon in the MBC house). The two apparently compared strategies, as Tyson went for carriers off 2 bases as well and emerged victorious.

When Midas disposed of HyuN the series once again was tied. Light and BaBy battled for the third time in a weekend, but something was different this time. Instead of the one sided crushing victories of the last two, BaBy finally found his groove and took down Light in a marathon game. Maybe he found redemption for his earlier performance.

With WeMade on the verge of victory, Pusan also got his his chance at redemption in the form of a rematch against Pure. 20 minutes later, full of tense moment after tense moment, he forced Pure out and kept his team in the game. The score now tied at 3 a piece, it was time for a deciding set.

A truly deciding set. 3 days of play, coming down to one single game, one single moment deciding who would become glorified and who would be forgotten. For MBC, Light was given the go ahead, and Pure from FOX.

A gas steal, a 12 nex, a pylon block on a machine shop, reaver harass, recalls, and some carriers later, Light had seen enough and Pure left the booth knowing his win would not be soon forgotten. He had been placed in a situation of pressure, and performed like a champion. He had pulled out all the stops, as well as every tactic he knew, and orchestrated a game where he was in control the whole way.

Total Result:
FOX 11 - 9 MBC


WeMade FOX will move on. They must move on.


CJ Entus vs SKT

(Z)n.Die_soO < (P)Snow on Match Point
(P)BeSt > (P)Movie on Polaris Rhapsody
(Z)s2 < (Z)EffOrt on New Heartbreak Ridge
(P)Bisu > (T)Iris on Fighting Spirit
(Z)Hyuk < (Z)Hydra on Judgment Day
(T)Fantasy < (T)sKyHigh on Fortress

SK Telecom T1 2-4 CJ Entus


The match between SK Telecom T1 and CJ Entus began slightly less grand than that on the other channel, but it hardly lacked note. The newcomer Snow, faced off against one of SKT's old staple mediocrity in a hatchery, SoO. While many consider Snow's PvZ to be largely untested, he dominated the game and and showed definite promise while advancing his team's chances.

The next two games were mirrors, Best vs Movie and s2 vs EffOrt with not much of particular note in them, one player getting the upper hand and finishing he game in a clean sweep.

[image loading]
Hehe, Bisu used to play for another team in playoffs this year

Iris entered the playing field from CJ in the next game, and Bisu from SKT. This game was to be a true test. An aging pro who was showing signs of a resurgence against a multitasking king who was showing signs of aging. Bisu, his play elevated to the occasion, showed Iris what was up and came out on top after a bloody engagement that sent hundreds of zealots back to Aiur.

The following two games were repeats of earlier, two mirrors with the winners (Hydra and SkyHigh) outclassing their opponents and putting wins on the scoreboard. The Skyhigh vs Fantasy game is also highly recommended for the TvT lovers in the audience. There was to be no comeback for SKT, CJ was able to oust them quickly and elegantly. A victory in 6 games, a short series for this weekend.

Celebrations would not begin for CJ, nor would defeat preparations for SKT. The mood remained tense, full of hope and set atop the dreams and aspirations of a year of hard work.

Day 2
(T)Fantasy < (T)sKyHigh on Fortress
(Z)s2 > (T)Iris on Grand Line SE
(Z)Hyuk < (Z)EffOrt on Judgment Day
(P)BeSt > (Z)Hydra on Polaris Rhapsody
(Z)n.Die_soO < (P)Snow on Match Point
(P)Bisu > (P)Movie on Fighting Spirit
(T)Fantasy > (Z)EffOrt on New Heartbreak Ridge

SK Telecom T1 4-3 CJ Entus


Day 2 opened with a repeat of a game from the previous day, Fantasy squaring off against Skyhigh on Fortress. Fantasy, perhaps fearing a fate similar to before, attempted to play 2 proxy barracks in the middle of the map, but his build was quickly scoutd and lead to a pretty convincing route from the CJ side.

In a story that mimics RorO's performance over the weekend, s2 looked ready for blood this time and when he played Iris he brought his top game. His muta control crisp, his timings steady, he won almost completely on the back of his micro alone. The same could not be said for HyuK, who was taken down easily by EffOrt in a repeat performance.

The next two games saw two PvZs, and in each the protoss controlled the game gracefully to trade another series between the two teams. Bisu saw an appearance again in the 6th set, to play a protoss briefly heralded as the next dragoon-general. As tends to be with PvP, his micro was ever-so-slightly superior in a single battle and went on the win the game with a knockout blow immediately after.

[image loading]

This plateau represents the skill level between these two teams (via mediafury)


The series now tied at 3-3, CJ looked to call it a day and go home winners of the series. EffOrt would represent them, while SKT gave their only hope to Fantasy who was tasked with stopping the reigning OSL champion.

EffOrt did his best to show some of the unpredictable aggressiveness that won him a starleague title, but Fantasy was able to hold him off. The blood of countless zerglings later, the SKT team did a group high-five and kept their chances alive to fight another day.

It was tied. It was time to go to a third day of play.


Day 3
(P)Bisu > (P)Snow on Fighting Spirit
(P)BeSt > (T)sKyHigh on Fortress
(T)Fantasy < (Z)Hydra on Judgment Day
(Z)s2 < (Z)EffOrt on Match Point
(T)Canata > (T)BByong on Grand Line SE
(Z)Hyuk < (P)Movie on New Heartbreak Ridge
(P)Bisu > (P)Snow on Polaris Rhapsody

SK Telecom T1 4-3 CJ Entus


Day 3 of a mighty adventure had arrived. It was time to deliver, time to go big or go home. One of the days when old, played out adages, maxims, and proverbs are acceptable to use. Play to win and such.

The day opened up with Bisu from SKT's bench. Having slain Movie twice already this weekend, he moved on to fight Snow. A battle of newcomer against a made man, a storyline that pits new against old and against age itself.

On this day, experience proved to be the winner. as Bisu's superiority for a single battle proved to be all he needed. In the game that followed, BeSt went straight for DT tech and knocked SkyHigh out of the game before he knew what hit him (winning his second game in a row on the back of the invisible hunter).

CJ, now down 2 games, would never be that easy to dispatch of. They won the following 2 sets to even it up, first with Hydra...making hydras (and then later lurkers) and EffOrt showing his usual skill in ZvZ (making him 3-0 in the series against other zergs).

Bringing the series to a 2-2 tie, Canata slowly starved out BByong like a snake coiling tightly around its prey. Movie similarly displayed superiority in his game, taking HyuK on from all angles and punishing him in multiple spots.

Just like WeMade against MBC. It would all come down to a single game, one chance to prove yourself for your fans, your teammates, and yourself. Bisu was given that chance by SKT, truly a time for him to show the world that he is back and can sill perform. As in the first game, Snow was given his chance by CJ. A newcomer with an outstanding season, time to shine, to show that he has what it takes to take on the burden of protoss king.

[image loading]


After a long game, forces clashing on both sides again and again, armies stormed and zealots fading into the darkness, Bisu came out a winner. It is not without credit to Snow or his team, each side won an equal number of games overall and CJ showed no sign that they didn't deserve to be in the match. Perhaps luck is a larger factor than we like to believe.

Total Result:
SKT 10 - 10 CJ


In the end SKT will advance. Even if their orange uniforms are stupid.


Both teams came from being down one set, to win crucial games and come back to win the whole thing. SKT1, WeMade, Bisu, they are back from the dead.

The Snorlax Corner
by Waxangel

CJ vs SKT


As the 10 : 10 final set score shows, CJ and SK were very evenly matched. Even though CJ fans will be disappointed to have been just barely knocked out, I do think CJ overachieved this season.

This might be the weakest CJ team we’ve seen since the GO days. They’ve been a Swiss army knife team, with a many great specialists but lacking a real impact ace for much of the season. It’s a real credit to the legendary Coach Cho (who should be the first hall of fame coach, once they start inducting them) that CJ got this far. His lineup selection has been great as usual, with well selected snipers and shrewd use of throwaway cards against other team’s aces.

That’s why I’m surprise that Coach Park of SK got the better of the lineup battle in series. Looking at the lineups for any of the three days shows that SKT would have been fairly happy with all of them, and it’s only the worse-than-usual (beyond the impossible) 1-7 performance of the SK Zergs that made the series so close.


WeMade vs MBCGame


Although I’m not surprised at all, I’m still very amused by the fact that Pure was the most clutch player on either team. This is not to say he is the most skilled player on either team, but he is the player who can elevate his play the most on big occasions. As his constant OSL over achievements show, Pure has that winning spark that allows him to play a level above what his skill would project. There was something very poetic about the way Pure lost to a fairly terrible Pusan, yet beat two serial chokers in Sea and Light.

I think this played out the way most people expected, with WeMade’s depth getting the better of MBCGame. I did not think WeMade was quite as deep as some people perceived, as I thought Mind and Midas were being slightly overrated. The signs of clutch ability from Roro, Pure, and Baby make me think they might actually be quite strong at the top.


Prediction: WeMade are going to struggle to beat SKT1’s Protoss power pair. 1-7 is unusually bad even for SKT Zergs, so I think they will get at least two wins. That should be enough to take care of Fox, barring incredibly favorable lineups for WeMade.


Few people have praised SKT's zerg lineup as of late, crediting them with revitalizing the team in an era of change. While they were winning more than their protoss lineup briefly, in this series they won a total of one game while being sent out 8 times.

Enough of the jibber jabber about zergs though, Bisu is winning. Who thought we would see the day? Lets check it out!

GotW, Bisu vs Snow Part 2
by Mystlord


+ Show Spoiler +
Well the first two matches of the Proleague playoffs are over, and it's time to reflect back on each individual game and remember how awesome they were. We had no shortage of seriously exciting moments, though I think what people remember the clearest is Snow's 72 kill Reaver and Best's 38 kill DT. Those games were pretty terrible though, so I decided to pick an actually good game, but still with the "imba shit" being thrown at each other.

It's the final game of the final match of SKT vs CJ. The series is tied 1:1, and each team sends out its pick for the Ace match. This is the deciding game.

[image loading]

But maybe sleep is more important...


SKT sends out Bisu - the man who needs no introduction. CJ sends out Effort Snow - a great contender for rookie of the year. Whoever wins this game will bring victory to his team; whoever loses this game will cry in shame.

Bisu starts as the Blue Protoss on the bottom right, while Snow spawns as the Orange Protoss at the top left. The map is Polaris Rhapsody, which has multiple paths of attack to each expansion point. Both players begin with mirror builds, getting two Zealots and the Range upgrade. Immediately after their first Dragoon warps in, both players plant a Nexus at their natural, and gets a Robo. They also add two additional gates each.

The first divergence in builds comes when Bisu adds on a Robotics Bay after his Observatory, while Snow adds a Citadel of Adun, obviously for DTs and a quick transition to HTs. On some maps, this can be a wise choice because Storms wreak havoc on Reavers because of immobility. However, because Reavers are so mobile and can easily be used for harassment, they can be superior to HTs to start off with.

Once his first Reaver finishes, Bisu loads it on a Shuttle and sends it to join his main army. Meanwhile, his Observer has finally spotted Snow's DTs, and he starts building a Citadel of Adun himself for Storms. Snow tries a ploy with his first Observer, using it as a lure so he can sneak his DT into Bisu's base. The plan fails though, and Snow is just left with a dead Observer and a dead DT.

Bisu plays it safe and adds a Forge and a Cannon in his main, and Snow does the same. Bisu also adds more Gates so he's running 6 Gates off of 2 bases. Snow added these Gateways earlier, and thus has a larger ground army than Bisu. Nonetheless, Bisu moves up with his main army, and attacks Snow's front. At this point pictures are worth a thousand words, so I'll just let you see what happened:

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[image loading]


Bisu did a good job from attacking from the higher ground and getting a good concave, but he made the mistake of letting both Reavers get killed off far too easily. If he had separated them, then his attack would have been much more successful. As it is though, it wasn't a total defeat for Bisu, as he uses the attack to set up a base at 6, although Snow's expansion at 12 finishes first.

Both players start building up some more, and Bisu sends a DT towards top right. Snow meant to distract with a small attack on Bisu's 6 while his main army hit Bisu's natural, but the DT that Bisu sent out earlier luckily spotted Snow's army, so Bisu was able to turn around and stop Snow from advancing any further.

At this point though, Bisu's +1 attack has finished upgrading, but Snow still hasn't started researching upgrades. This will prove to be a decisive advantage for Bisu as the game progresses, and it's a significant oversight on Snow's part. Bisu takes bottom left, but Snow intends to stop it by advancing forward with his main army. Snow intended to force Bisu to attack him so he could get good Storms off on Bisu's clumped army, but the plan backfired as Bisu was able to get a superior concave on Snow's forces.

[image loading]


[image loading]


Snow is forced to retreat, and Bisu is clearly ahead at this point, especially because Snow still hasn't taken top right yet because of one pesky DT that's been killing every Probe Snow has sent to build a base there.

Bisu now drives up towards top right, hoping to control the high ground and then destroy Snow's top right expo. Snow sends 4 Zealots to attack bottom left, but Bisu ignores that and attacks.

[image loading]


[image loading]


Snow is caught with half of his army out of position, and in a terrible position because he's basically forced to attack up onto the high ground. Storms go off, and Snow lets a ton of Probes get caught in a maynard, and they all go down.

[image loading]


[image loading]

And SKT goes wild!!!


[image loading]

"Wow guys we barely won!"


Bisu wipes out Snow's army, and Snow is clearly outnumbered now. As Bisu pushes into Snow's natural, he realizes that it's over and GGs.

[image loading]

You can see the distress on Snow's face...


[image loading]


A great game played by Bisu, and although Snow made some mistakes throughout the game, Bisu won by not falling for any of Snow's subtle plays and by taking advantage of the high ground to split Snow's forces in two. SKT celebrates in full force.

[image loading]


[image loading]

Fangirls cry over Bisu of course


[image loading]

"I can't believe it... I'm useful again!"


The quality of the games so far has been impressive. Attempts at BBS, gas steals, proxy rax, drawn out TvTs, there was even a 5 pool. The first round is over but the best is yet to come.

To cap it off, lets look at a second editorial, this time from one of our newer valued writing men, flamewheel.

The Song of the Fan
by Flamewheel


I am a fan.

But not of WeMade FOX, and not of MBCGame HERO. Not of CJ Entus, and not of SK Telecom T1.

But I am a fan.

I am not a fan of STX SouL, or KT Rolster. I am not a fan of Hwaseung OZ, of Samsung KHAN, of Woongjin Stars. I am not a fan of eSTRO, or Hite SPARKYZ, or even of Air Force ACE.

But I am a fan.

In the traditional sense of the word "fan" (and more often the more disparaging term "fanboy") on Team Liquid, I do not root for any specific team. I do not partake in flame wars, nor do I disparage other teams based on bias. I am a fan without that fancy logo seen at the bottom right of every post; I am a fan without a team to call my own.

But I am a fan.

I am a fan whose logo is invisible, a logo that is shared between each and every person who still watches the game.

I am a fan of Brood War.

There is a manic side in me, and thankfully it is not the type to rob banks or stalk children at night; the craziness can be found in my willingness to stay up till 5:00 in the morning to watch Starcraft games when I have class in three hours. Though I have followed progaming seriously for only one year, I have found a sport that, in playing, almost rivals my interest in tennis, and in watching far exceeds my love for watching any other professionally played sport. I have found Brood War, and it has found me.

Proleague, MSL, OSL, I have watched them all. I have cheered the players on, and I have laughed at the silly commercials. For the good and the bad, this year has seen a tumultuous change in the world of professional Starcraft, and in ESPORTS in general. However, disregard what we've seen and live in the moment: live for the Playoffs, and watch as one team walks the road to victory.

So far, the opening two matches have made me very happy. As a nonpartisan spectator, for the most part the matches were exciting and tension-filled. However, good matches of Starcraft happen all the time. The source of my happiness comes from not the games that were played, but because of the players themselves.

I am happy that Jaehoon pinched his nerve endings and won. Being the practice bonjwa of MBCGame HERO but always choking onstage is a tough feeling to be sure, and even though MBC didn't move on, Jaehoon went 2-1 in some pretty tense games. Massive props to him.

I am happy that Shine demonstrated some fantastic ZvP, and as if he were showing us something, he didn't make a single hydralisk or mutalisk in his game against Tyson. Unlike the majority of TL, I've always liked Shine since he shows that it doesn't matter if it doesn't look nice: winning is winning.

I am happy that Pure, the man who wasn't even played by his team a few months ago, was able to be the ultimate clutch player for his team, going 3-1 with a win in the final Bo7 to seal the deal for FOX. Always one who went far in Starleagues but not far enough, Pure showed me that he can take it to another level.

I am happy that Coach Ha decided to trust in Hyun for the Ace match Day 1. Despite his failings in the next two days, Hyun managed to take the much-needed win for MBCGame HERO.

I am happy for RorO, and the amazing ZvT he demonstrated against Sea after being flounced Day 1. And it wasn't even an Ace match!

I am happy for Pusan, since he shows he still has the Spirit.

And most happily in the three days between MBCGame HERO and WeMade FOX, I am happy that BaBy found his metaphorical socks.

[image loading]

Artist's rendition of flamewheel


I am happy that Snow demonstrated that his PvZ is nothing to be afraid of, and that his development is something we should keep watching for.

I am happy that SKT Protosses went 7-0 in a time where Protoss is still struggling. I am happy that Bisu is playing better again, since domination between a top Zerg and top Terran seems to need to be split with a third.

I am happy for EffOrt, and am still astounded by his ZvZ. Despite dropping the ball Day 2 to a sexy Fantasy strategy, he won his other three matches.

I am happy for Fantasy, since he is both capable of playing splendid straight-up games but isn't afraid to be creative. Creativity (I guess fueled by Boxer) is something that I think is somewhat missing in the games of today.

While there are plenty of things to not be so happy about, such as taxes, SKT Zerg, inflation, bedtimes, and Canata TvT, I am happy to have witnessed a great weekend (and plus) of Proleague.

And most of all, I am happy to be a fan of Brood War.
Though SCII comes out after this weekend, I want to see the players, coaches, and teams continue to demonstrate to us why this this game is the best RTS ever, and why it is really a sport.

Brood War for life.


The best will start a mere hours from now, when SK Telecom T1 faces off against WeMade Fox, in a duel to decide who will play STX next week. The games again are a best of 3 sets of matches, so prepare for a possible long weekend.


Statisfaction
by Heyoka


With SKT playing WeMade, there has been some talk of a possible game between former bonjwas Boxer and NaDa. As with any true fan of Brood War, I would love to watch them duke it out, but its tough to deny that the chance of that game is probably around one in a bazillion. Just how close? No idea.

Lets see what kind of approximation we can come up with.

Over the last year Boxer has played in 2 proleague matches, and NaDa 7. Each team played 58 matches total this year (55 regular season + 3 post), making their per-match appearance rates 2/58 and 7/58. Past performance isn't necessarily indicative of future rates, but this gives an approximation that seems reasonable. I think just over 1 in 8 is actually pretty close to what NaDa's true rate is (for how many times he sees play in one of these matches), and while 1/29 is a little generous for Boxer this is meant more for fun than scientific rigor so its okay to shade our line a hair.

Using those, we get (1/29) x (1/8.3) which rounds to 1 in 241. That is the rate for which both players appear in the same best of series, generous but believable (the running theme for every calculation). You might notice that playoffs are best of 7 while the normal season is a best of 5 competition. I thought of that and decided that the factors of 'more players being sent out per day' and 'less skilled players being cut because of playoff pressure' evened out to let us to continue along as if their chances are equal at either length.

[image loading]

The numbers! The numberrrrrrrrrrrs!


Actually I had a much longer way of adjusting for per-game rates and then mirroring set length averages, but it made the explanation incredibly convoluted. The end answer was nearly the same, only more difficult to arrive at, so it got scrapped.

Anyway, finding how likely they both are to play in the same match isn't all that useful. We want to know how likely it is that they play eachother. Over the last 2 years, the playoff best of 7 matches have averaged 6.2 games per set (so far this year its even higher, at 6.7). 1/6.2 squared gets us to 1/38.4, the chance of them playing eachother if they both happened to be sent out in a series.

Combining the two sets of answers, the chance of them being played in the same set (1/241) times the chance of them playing in the same game (1/38.4) brings us to 1/9254.4, our final destination. That is to say, if nearly ten thousand matches were played between SKT and WeMade tomorrow, Boxer and NaDa are likely to play once.

Around .011%.

Well, to be fair, it will probably go 3 sets so .033% chance through the entire weekend.


Enjoy!

This Proleague update was brought to you by Team Liquid's PL 2009-10 coverage team - heyoka, pangshai, harem, snowdrift86, Mystlord, IntoTheWow, and special guest flamewheel. Many thanks to keit as usual for the stellar graphics!
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@RealHeyoka | ESL / DreamHack StarCraft Lead
Abenson
Profile Blog Joined December 2009
Canada4122 Posts
July 24 2010 03:15 GMT
#2
Woohoo!
Epic and great writeup...
+ Show Spoiler +
I'm really glad SKT made it through!
Protactinium
Profile Joined June 2010
Canada550 Posts
Last Edited: 2010-07-24 03:19:09
July 24 2010 03:18 GMT
#3
You numbers make me laugh heyoka.
Hoping for good games tonight!
And so, we find the Sublime.
flamewheel
Profile Blog Joined December 2009
FREEAGLELAND26781 Posts
July 24 2010 03:19 GMT
#4
^_^v .011 is enough.
Writerdamn, i was two days from retirement
cgrinker
Profile Blog Joined December 2007
United States3824 Posts
July 24 2010 03:24 GMT
#5
I thought SKT opened really strong day three as far as coordinating strategies among the team. The other two days it felt like singles games but the way that started out, those builds were meant to shake up CJ. Had Fantasy fuckin expanded it would have been an epic demoralization
ReketSomething
Profile Blog Joined November 2008
United States6012 Posts
July 24 2010 03:32 GMT
#6
In game score CJ was tied T___T

that sucks...I hate skt
Jaedong :3
SubtleArt
Profile Blog Joined January 2010
2710 Posts
July 24 2010 03:40 GMT
#7
lol "CJ is like an army knife". That's actually a really accurate analogy.
Morrow on ZvP: "I'm not very confident in general vs Protoss because of the imbalance (Yes its imbalanced, get over it)."
deth2munkies
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United States4051 Posts
July 24 2010 03:40 GMT
#8
Tch, was hoping for a CJ win here. Ahh well, at least Bisu is doing well again, Protoss represent!
Dromar
Profile Blog Joined June 2007
United States2145 Posts
July 24 2010 03:59 GMT
#9
Interesting write-up.

BUT... + Show Spoiler +
1/6.2 shouldn't be squared
Ursadon-n-Pals
Profile Blog Joined November 2009
United States928 Posts
July 24 2010 04:00 GMT
#10
This makes me even more excited for the SKT vs WeMade tonight. I'll take those chances for Boxer and NaDa :D
Nothing worth having comes easy.
oo_xerox
Profile Blog Joined January 2009
United States852 Posts
July 24 2010 04:13 GMT
#11
On July 24 2010 13:00 Ursadon-n-Pals wrote:
This makes me even more excited for the SKT vs WeMade tonight. I'll take those chances for Boxer and NaDa :D

i could die in peace after that.
I could get a more coherent article by gluing a Sharpie to a dog's cook and letting it hump the page.
TheTeamLiquidTiger
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
United States627 Posts
July 24 2010 04:15 GMT
#12
great read! bisu coming out again to save SKT
SlayerS_BoxeR FTW ///// Long live the Emperor
TheNessman
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
United States4158 Posts
July 24 2010 04:24 GMT
#13
Great write up. And i agree with flamewheel, aside from slight favorites, about halfway through round one i just started rooting for something awesome.

Also, we're sure boxer is on the lineup right? yeah k its gonna happen .
~~! youtube.com/xmungam1 !~~
nextstep
Profile Joined July 2009
Canada705 Posts
July 24 2010 04:25 GMT
#14
rooted for KHAN, they miss the playoffs

then switched temporarily to MBC, they get knocked out.

now i'm temporarily switching to SKT.

go SKT!
go KHAN! TBLS <3
Saracen
Profile Blog Joined December 2007
United States5139 Posts
July 24 2010 04:28 GMT
#15
Ah mah gah flamewheel kitty!
oo_xerox
Profile Blog Joined January 2009
United States852 Posts
July 24 2010 04:33 GMT
#16
""I can't believe it... I'm useful again!"
aaaahahahahahaha
I could get a more coherent article by gluing a Sharpie to a dog's cook and letting it hump the page.
rollinrivers
Profile Joined June 2010
United States1 Post
July 24 2010 05:28 GMT
#17
I think you mean Fantasy's proxy 2 factories in the skt vs fox day 2, but otherwise awesome write up!
konadora *
Profile Blog Joined February 2009
Singapore66153 Posts
Last Edited: 2010-07-24 05:33:24
July 24 2010 05:33 GMT
#18
that kitteh is so cute

like flamewheel :3
POGGERS
flamewheel
Profile Blog Joined December 2009
FREEAGLELAND26781 Posts
July 24 2010 06:36 GMT
#19
OMG WHO NINJAED IN THAT KITTY
OMG
OMG
Writerdamn, i was two days from retirement
Heyoka
Profile Blog Joined March 2008
Katowice25012 Posts
July 24 2010 06:40 GMT
#20
it clearly says who if you read the caption
@RealHeyoka | ESL / DreamHack StarCraft Lead
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