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motbob
United States12546 Posts
On January 24 2010 00:25 JWD wrote:Show nested quote +On January 24 2010 00:20 motbob wrote:On January 24 2010 00:09 JWD wrote:
I think the amount of debate over the specifics of the game just settles that it should not have been called by the refs. When this much uncertainty and controversy remains over a game's outcome, surely it ought to be replayed? First of all, the KeSPA people had access to information we did not: the FPviews of the players. They knew the mineral count of each, and that may have led them to a decision. We don't really know. Second of all, just because there is a "bunch of discussion" on this game doesn't mean that the outcome was heavily in doubt. I mean, the HQ VOD isn't even out yet! How can people make rational decisions about the kind of advantage JD had? For my money, 5 gas Zerg vs a Terran with maybe 4 vessels, a tiny MnM army, and 2.5 bases is a decisive advantage. But, again, the HQ VOD isn't out yet. Not having access to the players' mineral counts or an HQ VOD surely can't explain all of the controversy. Are you really suggesting that if we knew how many minerals Flash/JD had that this debate would be completely settled? As for "Just because there is a 'bunch of discussion' on this game doesn't mean that the outcome was heavily in doubt" … actually yes that is exactly what it means.
Of course I'm not saying that mineral/gas counts would completely settle the matter. But that might have reduced the "uncertainty and controversy" in the KeSPA refs' minds, helping them to make a decision.
And "discussion and debate" doesn't mean shit if it's uninformed, which it currently is, on both sides. I just want to note that ret was the only person on TL who noticed that JD had finished a 5th gas right before the disconnect. He was able to see that *crucial* fact because he had the luxury of seeing a HQ version of what we were all seeing. If you go to youtube and watch the VOD, the incredibly important piece of the puzzle that is the 5th gas is unnoticeable. You have to be looking for it, because the observer never looks at it and you have to use the pixilated minimap.
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United States44452 Posts
On January 24 2010 00:25 JWD wrote:Show nested quote +On January 24 2010 00:20 motbob wrote:On January 24 2010 00:09 JWD wrote:
I think the amount of debate over the specifics of the game just settles that it should not have been called by the refs. When this much uncertainty and controversy remains over a game's outcome, surely it ought to be replayed? First of all, the KeSPA people had access to information we did not: the FPviews of the players. They knew the mineral count of each, and that may have led them to a decision. We don't really know. Second of all, just because there is a "bunch of discussion" on this game doesn't mean that the outcome was heavily in doubt. I mean, the HQ VOD isn't even out yet! How can people make rational decisions about the kind of advantage JD had? For my money, 5 gas Zerg vs a Terran with maybe 4 vessels, a tiny MnM army, and 2.5 bases is a decisive advantage. But, again, the HQ VOD isn't out yet. Not having access to the players' mineral counts or an HQ VOD surely can't explain all of the controversy. Are you really suggesting that if we knew how many minerals Flash/JD had that this debate would be completely settled? As for "Just because there is a 'bunch of discussion' on this game doesn't mean that the outcome was heavily in doubt" … actually yes that is exactly what it means.
I think this isn't settled because a lot of people haven't seen the last 30 seconds that wasn't shown on the replay on the stream and a lot more people just can't tell ass from elbow. Marines and medics cannot take down ultralisks with that much armour and swarm support. They need a high vessel count, or tanks, or mines, or firebats or all of the above. Flash didn't have any of these. It's wishful thinking, ignorance or lack of study of the vod that causes the debate about who was winning. Flash did a 2 base allin which shows massive amounts of unit production and cool shit and flashy lights and all that activity makes him look really strong to a casual observer. But a less casual observer will recognise that once it's blocked it's over. The next five minutes of the game would not have seen the same kind of unit production as the five before. JD had weathered the storm and emerged on the other side with 5 gases and map control.
The real debate is whether it's right to give the win here or give a replay. Yes, there are people arguing that Flash was winning. But I remember having an argument on tl with someone convinced that because the toxic dose of fluoride was dangerous the safe dose was also dangerous. Some people just don't know anything.
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motbob
United States12546 Posts
The HQ VOD is up now. Time to start writing.
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On January 24 2010 00:25 BG1 wrote:Show nested quote +On January 24 2010 00:19 Vasoline73 wrote:On January 24 2010 00:16 BG1 wrote:On January 24 2010 00:10 Leath wrote:I think it is ambiguous.  Flash had his third, we could see him transfer the scvs. Flash's nat was not mined out yet.  Jaedong could just have been in a similar position. Though, we could see minerals in both his main/nat, they were gonna be mined soon, Im sure. They would be fighting off 1 base shortly, and would depend in a lot of factors. Jaedong seemed to be ahead, but I would not say his chance of winning were 99%, maybe 65% at best. Jaedong had 15:00 as well... It would be 2v1 bases if they both mined out main/nat and Flash's base is a min only, no gas. Not to mention Flash just had mnms, no tanks at all, wouldn't be able to fight off swarm and plague and can't take another base with JD having full map control and expanding anywhere he wants whenever he wants. Except JD needed to macro an army and while he did that Flash could establish his. :/. Even EMP could have been used well in this game. We never know what would happen BG1 which is what everyone who thinks there should have been a regame is trying to point out. It's not clear cut at all It's clear that Jaedong had a big advantage and though he hasn't won the game, how is it fair to give Flash a regame for a match he had 1% chance of winning, or even 20%. Either decision is unfair but they had to choose and they chose the lesser of two evils.
Like Fakesteve said, you don't give a free game in the finals, it's just retarded. Flash definitely had closer to 20% than 1% in winning and that's why people are arguing about it. Giving a un-won game to a player because of a disconnect in the MSL finals is just foolish, especially when like Plexa has been saying everytime something like this has happened they've regamed. There's a reason that KT was so pissed and that Oz wouldn't have been if there was a regame...
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I think Kespa made the best possible decision. Jaedong had a huge advantage in that game and it would be even more unfair to Jaedong if there was to be a rematch. Obviously, giving the win to Jaedong was also unfair too (and pissed off lots of people too, which I understand), but given the circumstances it was the most logical decision. You just can't deny the advantage Jaedong had. I'm sure it was possible for Flash to make a comeback (hell, I would love to see that) but unfortunately we will never know.
Ideally, there shouldn't be a power outage at all. FUCK.
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United States12607 Posts
On January 24 2010 00:33 KwarK wrote:
The real debate is whether it's right to give the win here or give a replay. Yes, there are people arguing that Flash was winning. But I remember having an argument on tl with someone convinced that because the toxic dose of fluoride was dangerous the safe dose was also dangerous. Some people just don't know anything.
Completely agreed over this part, based on your posts (plus Nazgul, ret, IdrA, etc.) there is no way that Flash was winning. But the margin of JD's lead being so in dispute obviously goes to the "real debate" here. And even amongst the posters who clearly know what they are talking about, there is disagreement over whether Jaedong had an insurmountable advantage.
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Canada5565 Posts
On January 24 2010 00:23 KwarK wrote:Show nested quote +On January 24 2010 00:18 Xxio wrote:On January 24 2010 00:11 KwarK wrote:On January 24 2010 00:07 Xxio wrote:On January 24 2010 00:00 Vasoline73 wrote:On January 23 2010 23:40 Cassius wrote:
This is probably a really moot point, but you can clearly see seconds before the power went out that Flash's M/M was 3/3. You can also see another stream of yellow most likely another control group of M/M halfway to the base, while Jaedong only had 1 ultra 3 lings and a defiler in his base. I know there was more on the way, but I feel like if the defiler is irradiated and that base is taken out its now completely even with upgrades and base power. Jaedong's tech tree is already climbed, if Flash decides to take a couple minutes to incorporate siege mode after he possibly takes out that base then it's a completely different game IMO. This was wayyyy to close to call, I think they should have redid the game, or Jaedong should have manned up with some good sportsmanship and GG'd the 4th game and take it to a 5th. The 5th game would be on Matchpoint where Jaedong just owned Flash in less than 10 mins with ridge Muta micro. Really good point and people have been overlooking it.. :/. Flash had MnM coming out of his raxs and you can see that on the minimap before it crashed. You definitely cannot call it. JD still needed to power economy to pump an army to crush Flash (which he didn't have btw before anyone says it, you can see like 4 lings and an ultra moving across the map before it cuts out and that's it) JD would need to get a perfect swarm off in Flash's min only to seal the game quickly and there's plenty of ways Flash could have stopped that and delayed the game considerably longer. It deserved a rematch :/ Exactly. Flash was still producing 3/3 units whereas Jaedong's 3rd and 4th bases didn't have a high drone count and couldn't keep producing ultralisks at the rate he had before to protect 7. Jaedong used most of his larva and resources on ultralisks and cracklings, but you can't sustain that ultralisk production with the econ he had. Why couldn't he keep up the same rate of production as he was before. He hasn't lost access to any minerals nor lost any drones. His income would either be the same if the situation was unchanged or better if he'd made some more drones (we don't know). Saying that he couldn't sustain his production, despite there being no decrease in his income, makes absolutely no sense. It's just wishful thinking. He makes his huge group of ultralisks when he has 3 bases mining gas. Then the 1o clock base gets taken out, so down to 2 gas. The last time we see his 3rd base he has no drones or extractor there. He makes a few more ultralisks and defilers to help hold off 7 - obviously the production has slowed down/stopped. You can't spam ultralisk/defiler on 2 gas. I think that while 7 was being fought over JD was only beginning to make drones at his 3rd. Any units made while 1 was being fought over weren't involved beyond the first few seconds of the struggle for 7. That battle was a grinder, unit production pitted against unit production, both armies rallying there. JD won the contest of unit production. You can't argue that doesn't mean much because he lost a base when that base was lost before the battle at 7. It's simply not relevant to anything.
The units (mass of ultras) JD used to defend his 3rd base and 7 were the same ones made while the 3rd gas was up, he only made a few more (but mostly cracklings and defiler) to reinforce that army. I think the effect of 3gas vs. 2gas is pretty relevant to unit production.
Also, at the last shot we have of JD's natural, it isn't even very saturated.
He makes ultralisks after he lost his 1o clock but only 3 or so. You can tell the last ultralisks come only after he starts mining gas from his 7.
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United States44452 Posts
On January 24 2010 00:41 JWD wrote:Show nested quote +On January 24 2010 00:33 KwarK wrote:
The real debate is whether it's right to give the win here or give a replay. Yes, there are people arguing that Flash was winning. But I remember having an argument on tl with someone convinced that because the toxic dose of fluoride was dangerous the safe dose was also dangerous. Some people just don't know anything. Completely agreed over this part, based on your posts (plus Nazgul, ret, IdrA, etc.) there is no way that Flash was winning. But the margin of JD's lead being so in dispute obviously goes to the "real debate" here. And even amongst the posters who clearly know what they are talking about, there is disagreement over whether Jaedong had an insurmountable advantage.
I would be very surprised if Chill didn't conclude that JD was a long way ahead after watching the vod (and the last 30 seconds where Flash calls off his attack on 7 after JD rapes 20 more mnm). He knows enough about ZvT to know that ultras with swarm are imba and without tanks/mine/irradiate/firebats there's no way Flash could hold that 3rd. Everything was up in the air til just before the disc, Flash could still have maybe broken 7 etc but at the second of the disc the dust had settled and the outcome was clear. Obviously I don't expect him to change his mind about replay vs win but I would be shocked if any poster who knows what they're talking about can legitimately argue that Flash could hold off ultras under swarms from 5 gas.
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Fully agree with Naz and Ret. Thankfully a lot of people still have their heads on their shoulders.
Sometimes you're dealt an unfortunate situation and you have to deal with it as best you can. I am of the opinion that this is what KeSPA did. I am also of the opinion that this is not what the KT team (Flash's dad included) did. But that's besides the point I guess.
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lol either way this isnt a fair decision, because we dont have all the info (only the people watching the live stream can debate this in its entirety). im not saying anything because I dont have a good understanding of TvZ to say anything. But atleast KESPA did SOMETHING other than postpone the series. Now THAT would have sucked XD
EDIT: but I think a re game would have been fair. Cuz even in the bleakest of situations, the best players some how manage to scrap a win.
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On January 24 2010 00:36 Vasoline73 wrote:Show nested quote +On January 24 2010 00:25 BG1 wrote:On January 24 2010 00:19 Vasoline73 wrote:On January 24 2010 00:16 BG1 wrote:On January 24 2010 00:10 Leath wrote:I think it is ambiguous. Flash had his third, we could see him transfer the scvs. Flash's nat was not mined out yet. Jaedong could just have been in a similar position. Though, we could see minerals in both his main/nat, they were gonna be mined soon, Im sure. They would be fighting off 1 base shortly, and would depend in a lot of factors. Jaedong seemed to be ahead, but I would not say his chance of winning were 99%, maybe 65% at best. Jaedong had 15:00 as well... It would be 2v1 bases if they both mined out main/nat and Flash's base is a min only, no gas. Not to mention Flash just had mnms, no tanks at all, wouldn't be able to fight off swarm and plague and can't take another base with JD having full map control and expanding anywhere he wants whenever he wants. Except JD needed to macro an army and while he did that Flash could establish his. :/. Even EMP could have been used well in this game. We never know what would happen BG1 which is what everyone who thinks there should have been a regame is trying to point out. It's not clear cut at all It's clear that Jaedong had a big advantage and though he hasn't won the game, how is it fair to give Flash a regame for a match he had 1% chance of winning, or even 20%. Either decision is unfair but they had to choose and they chose the lesser of two evils. Like Fakesteve said, you don't give a free game in the finals, it's just retarded. Flash definitely had closer to 20% than 1% in winning and that's why people are arguing about it. Giving a un-won game to a player because of a disconnect in the MSL finals is just foolish, especially when like Plexa has been saying everytime something like this has happened they've regamed. There's a reason that KT was so pissed and that Oz wouldn't have been if there was a regame...
Why does Flash deserve a new 50:50 game (not counting map imbalance) when he lost? Why does JD need to be punished for a game he won?
If I'm Flash, I'll see the game footage, I will see that I clearly lost it and though it was a tough decision, as respect for my fellow gamer I'll admit that he had that game won.
I'm not even really going to argue about this anymore because most likely Flash will come out and say this himself tomorrow and if he doesn't, his fellow progamers will.
In the heat of the moment people don't always see clearly but when the dust settles I don't think Flash will mind this decision that much. He will however be dissapointed how it affected his play in game 4 (if it did) and what could've been.
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Hey, you guys are forgetting one very important person!!
The electrical engineer responsible for Flash's fan heater! I guess he/she is looking for a new job now.
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Glad I watched the games before I logged on TL. Change the title holy shit.
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u still have to regame its the rules
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United States44452 Posts
On January 24 2010 00:53 eagle wrote:
u still have to regame its the rules
Sigh. The rules are the ref decides what happens. The ref decided to give JD the win. It's the rules.
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On January 24 2010 00:41 JWD wrote:Show nested quote +On January 24 2010 00:33 KwarK wrote:
The real debate is whether it's right to give the win here or give a replay. Yes, there are people arguing that Flash was winning. But I remember having an argument on tl with someone convinced that because the toxic dose of fluoride was dangerous the safe dose was also dangerous. Some people just don't know anything. Completely agreed over this part, based on your posts (plus Nazgul, ret, IdrA, etc.) there is no way that Flash was winning. But the margin of JD's lead being so in dispute obviously goes to the "real debate" here. And even amongst the posters who clearly know what they are talking about, there is disagreement over whether Jaedong had an insurmountable advantage.
I don't think people even agreed on how much of an advantage Jaedong would need in the first place. I personally thought Jaedong had it pretty much won, and although I'm not sure how what criteria one person needs to fullfill for everyone to be pleased, I'm getting the idea that some people are arguing for a rematch simply because they themselves failed to see who was in the leading position at the point of the crash.
Jesus, just because some people can't see it doesn't mean the advantage was not clear. At least Jaedong had his well-upgraded ultralisks to take back the map control to set up expansions when he was at a disadvantage (which he did). What was Flash going to do? Start pumping mass vessels from scratch? Start massing tanks off one expansion that he didn't even secure? Use his puny marine medic force with minimal vessel support to take out that expansion as SO many people are keen to point out (against well upgrades ultralisks with defiler support that SK Terran is naturally weak against)? Hope for Jaedong to have a predisposition for stroke?
I refuse to believe that a rematch is called for unless every viewer can distinguish the winner from the moment of crash. Why do we need referees if everyone can plainly see the obvious? Either you replay every game that ends with a crash, or just go with the decisions. I don't see what was so horrendous about this one. Unless you believe that Jaedong needed to have swarms all over Flash's base with 50 ultralisks.
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On January 24 2010 00:18 MorroW wrote:
a good writeup doesnt change the fact that that free win was really uncalled for t.t
lol, dude, are u serious? free win wth ?!
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A rematch would've been much more unfair. Imagine if Flash would've won 3-2 after winning a rematch on this unbalanced TvZ map. That trophy wouldn't even be 50% his and yet it would be standing by his bed. THAT would suck, for both Flash and Jaedong.
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And if the ref chooses to steal JD the win.. it's still the rules.
Bleh.. what a sad sad finals it was.. I sure wish there was something else to memorise that "epic" battle with..
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On January 24 2010 00:41 Xxio wrote:Show nested quote +On January 24 2010 00:23 KwarK wrote:On January 24 2010 00:18 Xxio wrote:On January 24 2010 00:11 KwarK wrote:On January 24 2010 00:07 Xxio wrote:On January 24 2010 00:00 Vasoline73 wrote:On January 23 2010 23:40 Cassius wrote:
This is probably a really moot point, but you can clearly see seconds before the power went out that Flash's M/M was 3/3. You can also see another stream of yellow most likely another control group of M/M halfway to the base, while Jaedong only had 1 ultra 3 lings and a defiler in his base. I know there was more on the way, but I feel like if the defiler is irradiated and that base is taken out its now completely even with upgrades and base power. Jaedong's tech tree is already climbed, if Flash decides to take a couple minutes to incorporate siege mode after he possibly takes out that base then it's a completely different game IMO. This was wayyyy to close to call, I think they should have redid the game, or Jaedong should have manned up with some good sportsmanship and GG'd the 4th game and take it to a 5th. The 5th game would be on Matchpoint where Jaedong just owned Flash in less than 10 mins with ridge Muta micro. Really good point and people have been overlooking it.. :/. Flash had MnM coming out of his raxs and you can see that on the minimap before it crashed. You definitely cannot call it. JD still needed to power economy to pump an army to crush Flash (which he didn't have btw before anyone says it, you can see like 4 lings and an ultra moving across the map before it cuts out and that's it) JD would need to get a perfect swarm off in Flash's min only to seal the game quickly and there's plenty of ways Flash could have stopped that and delayed the game considerably longer. It deserved a rematch :/ Exactly. Flash was still producing 3/3 units whereas Jaedong's 3rd and 4th bases didn't have a high drone count and couldn't keep producing ultralisks at the rate he had before to protect 7. Jaedong used most of his larva and resources on ultralisks and cracklings, but you can't sustain that ultralisk production with the econ he had. Why couldn't he keep up the same rate of production as he was before. He hasn't lost access to any minerals nor lost any drones. His income would either be the same if the situation was unchanged or better if he'd made some more drones (we don't know). Saying that he couldn't sustain his production, despite there being no decrease in his income, makes absolutely no sense. It's just wishful thinking. He makes his huge group of ultralisks when he has 3 bases mining gas. Then the 1o clock base gets taken out, so down to 2 gas. The last time we see his 3rd base he has no drones or extractor there. He makes a few more ultralisks and defilers to help hold off 7 - obviously the production has slowed down/stopped. You can't spam ultralisk/defiler on 2 gas. I think that while 7 was being fought over JD was only beginning to make drones at his 3rd. Any units made while 1 was being fought over weren't involved beyond the first few seconds of the struggle for 7. That battle was a grinder, unit production pitted against unit production, both armies rallying there. JD won the contest of unit production. You can't argue that doesn't mean much because he lost a base when that base was lost before the battle at 7. It's simply not relevant to anything. The units (mass of ultras) JD used to defend his 3rd base and 7 were the same ones made while the 3rd gas was up, he only made a few more (but mostly cracklings and defiler) to reinforce that army. I think the effect of 3gas vs. 2gas is pretty relevant to unit production. Also, at the last shot we have of JD's natural, it isn't even very saturated. He makes ultralisks after he lost his 1o clock but only 3 or so. You can tell the last ultralisks come only after he starts mining gas from his 7.
I believe JD had no problem with sustaining unit production. Remember also, that he was able to save around 7-8 drones from the 1 o'clock base while Flash took it down. These also had to go somewhere and should add up to the good saturated main and natural. Probably at 3 o'clock, maybe we can see this on th HD video.
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EPT
