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On October 07 2009 05:53 Hot_Bid wrote:Show nested quote +On October 07 2009 05:09 StarBrift wrote:On October 07 2009 04:58 (paladin)roMAD wrote:On October 07 2009 04:41 StarBrift wrote:On October 06 2009 23:17 (paladin)roMAD wrote:On October 06 2009 23:05 StarBrift wrote:On October 06 2009 22:50 (paladin)roMAD wrote:
This quite a nice write-up, but some of your comments display complete lack of knowledge of players' skills. I am not talking about TV games, i am talking about progamers' skill overall. In my opinion this is the biggest misjudgement of player's skills on tl.net because all of you only take into account their TV games. Of course TV games mean much, but it's just one game in front of a huge audience and mental aspects start to play much bigger role than in practice or qualifiers. On the other hand, it is pretty hard to have a look at their practice games, so this judgement only by TV games is understandable. However, some comments you made are really clueless. Here are some examples:
In group N comment you call Shuttle a 'worse version of BackHo', which is really weird as their playstyle is very different. Shuttle PvT style beats BaBy's style very easily, as he is very good against harass style and his overall PvT is very very good. BaBy's style reminds of FanTaSy's style with many dropships and vuture harassing and his macro is sometimes quite sloppy. So Shuttle easily defends against harassing and just rolls over BaBy's tiny army. On the other hand, Light TvP style is what beats Shuttle really easily. You can call him a master of turtling or whatever. His TvP is all about turtling, i guess the best counter to him is Bisu with his smart recalls.
Another thing you say that 815's weakest mu is ZvT? I'd call it his best mu by far, although his ZvP is becoming better and better. And imo SkyHigh is hyped way too much, especially his TvZ.
Same as with Shuttle goes to Jaehoon. The guy has crazy PvT and overall he's really good, although i didn't expect him to beat FireFist to be honest.
Of course these 'living legendsof fail' in the face of FrOzean and HyuK. They are and were very good players and FrOzean beat both effort and Kwanro 3-2 on Outsider the other day with Effort winning with 4 pool in one of them. He is just very inconsistent and has problems setting his mentality up. HyuK's ZvZ and ZvP are on a high level, although i dunno about his ZvT.
As of Group V you say there were no surprises? How about MVP 2-0 Violet? Interestingly though, i consider Violet as much hyped as Gosi[Flying]. He still has a lot to learn and he is very incosistent. But still, i expected him to take the group.
Reality is an amazing player, reminds me a lot of FlaSh with his great macro. Watch out for him!
A logical question to me would be 'how do you know anyway?' This information is based on replays and iccup statistics that i have. Not that much, but it helps to learn about player's style and see his potential.
I dont want to offend anyone, i just noticed this trend of calling everyone bad just because he lost 6 or 12 games in proleague. They are still good players and if they make it through prelims then it's not just a fluke. It seems to me that basing skill level on TV game appearances is only about a million percent better than basing them off of ICCUP games when you don't even know for sure if the players played all the games on that account or if multiple players used them. Moreover people actually practise and play their best for TV games unlike ICCUP where they might try new stuff out or just practise wierd builds. Much of your post seems to be refuting the statements that some of these players are bad. Yuo are of course right in that they aren't. All the winners of the groups ARE good starcraft players. But what the OP says isn't that they are bad in general, just that they are bad in comparison to the scene or other top players. You have to learn to read between the lines if you're gonna read TL analysis. Believe me, i know for sure who played on what account. And i've watched replays not just pure ICCup statistics. The OP statements about some players reflect a generalized opinion of tl.net community. It has nothing to do with comparison, they are considered bad in general. Sorry for not believing a random russian TL user who uses shared iccup accounts to judge a players skill. An all knowing guy like you wouldn't have missed that koreans mostly share their iccup accounts would you?I'm saying clearly how stupid it is to base skill off of your own guesswork about players you don't even have 100% proof is really them. Stop thinking you know something that the rest of us doesn't because you don't. Basing pure skill on TV appearances only is obviously not 100% accurate but it's one hell of a lot better than your methods which doesn't even guarantee that your observations are from the right player. Even if you would know a players iccup account how many replays have you actually watched of his? 50+? I don't think so. And please don't use "Trust me I know I'm right" as an argument again unless you want to be ripped apart by 100 nerds again. Why would I trust someone I don't know and never heard of? I think you should check the 'Who is who on ICCup Season X' thread, you will be shocked. And you will be shocked to know that i have about 3000 replays of pros from ICCup. I'm saying that you don't get mass replays of players training. Because the teams don't allow sending them out. I know you're the one who did the determining and stuff but why would the pro teams break their rules and funnel mass replays to a foreigner? I'm not sure here but my guess is that you get replays that leaked onto korean replay sites yeah? Because the players in question found out who a certain pro was and uploaded it. But again that doesn't mean you can determine the true skill of a player especially not how they will perform in major leagues. I'm saying that unless you have 50-100 replays of every player you can't determine their skill accurately. Not every game played on ICCUP is a serious one and who are you to determine for what purpose each of the players had with their game. There can be multiple reasons for playing differently than normally even on iccup. Romad gets sent replays from the progamers themselves. He actually has a shitton of them on MSN. It's because he's literally a replay savant, he has some sort of weird photographic memory when it comes to hotkey pattern recognition -- he knows the hotkey layout for every single Korean pro (400+) and often can figure out offraces and amateurs as well. It's insane, and I didn't believe it until we used him to ID players in TSL. If anyone receives thousands of replays sent directly from Korean pros, it's him. Trust me, I've seen some of them. He doesn't give them out because obviously that'd be mostly a breach of trust -- but the guy is legit. If anyone can judge skills from replays, its Romad. Before you start saying this: Show nested quote +Sorry for not believing a random russian TL user who uses shared iccup accounts to judge a players skill. An all knowing guy like you wouldn't have missed that koreans mostly share their iccup accounts would you?I'm saying clearly how stupid it is to base skill off of your own guesswork about players you don't even have 100% proof is really them. Stop thinking you know something that the rest of us doesn't because you don't. Romad is the #1 source on player identification through hotkey patterns. Pros go and seek him out to find out who they played on ICCup. It's not uncommon for big name players (even the top tier S-class ones) to send him packs to figure out who they played. You should really understand who you are talking to before you just call him a "random russian TL user who guesses at player IDs." man. it must be the worst feeling getting verbally raped by a mod. he's gonna go into hiding for a few months.
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Group A, 10/14
Game 1: fOrGG vs Pusan
Game 2: Canata vs Winner
ForGG! You can do it man!
Group I, 10/30
Game 1: Luxury vs GuemChi
Game 2: Hwasin vs Game 1 Winner
Lux v Hwasin makes me nervous for choker Lux 
Group G, 10/28
Game 1: Mind vs HoGiL
Game 2: Flash vs Game 1 Winner
Poor mind  . I wanted you to go far.. but now I can't root for you to win
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well hope flash atleast make it to semi finalsthis time. U CAN DO IT. and how come i dont see jaedong in the list?
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Braavos36374 Posts
On October 07 2009 08:43 the nooby SC kid wrote:
well hope flash atleast make it to semi finalsthis time. U CAN DO IT. and how come i dont see jaedong in the list?
because the current osl champion is seeded into the next OSL
its set up so that if you do well, you don't have to go through prelims every time
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On October 07 2009 04:01 Jenia6109 wrote:So, which Protoss can make it to Ro16: Group A  Pusan can do it beating  fOrGG and then Canata consecutively. Pusan should try really well even thought he was on fire in OSL/MSL prelims. Group B Bisu should take his group easily no matter who is it, Really or  Shine, he will win if he will not overrate himself Group D Barracks is not main problem for JangBi, he will win him if he want while Kwanro can be real obstacle. In last PvZ JangBi lost even to YellOw[ArnC], so it's really hard to predict who will win. It only matters who will prepare better. Group E This group is similar to Group B. After beating Jaedong 2-0 it is no problem for Stork to beat unknown Zerg ggaemo. Also after beating fantasy 2-0 it is no problem to beat sKyHigh. All that Stork should do is to play his standart play and don't choke Group K Who is Pure? No matter because Hyuk is nobody too. Leta is not king of TvP so Pure has at least a chance to surprise us These Protoss will probably fail : Group C BackHo is so middle player now while Calm is S-class player lately. Calm will probably destroy both Reality and BackHo 2-0. Group F
Movie is real dark horse in this OSL. He already beated Jaedong in last MSL but he is still so inconsistent. Even if he will defeat Light he will probably lose to hero who is ZvP specializer.Group H Another dark horse Jaehoon find himself with low TvPer firebathero and last-generation Zerg ZerO who will probably eat Jaehoon, maybe with queens tt Group I Poor poor GuemChi, he will play first set with Luxury. It's pity but he has no chance to win, maybe 1%  Group J Horang2 will most likely beat FrOzean but there is EffOrt in second set. No! It's trap! Change your group, Horang2, lol
Movies strength is PvZ and you forget that he eliminated by.hero from the Avalon MSL. Movie is
2:0 against by.hero and will most likely beat him again.
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I'm a big Flash fan. I'm a big fan of movie too but if Flash and Movie were to face off in the OSL or MSL, I'm rooting for Flash.
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I have a premonition that Horang2 will take this.
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Oops, fixed OGN... ;; Stupid by me.
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Good write up, I look forward to Bisu playing against Really or Shine, I never heard of them :D
The potential Stork vs Skyhigh is pretty cool too...
I also look forward to Effort and Flash playing against their opponents.
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On October 07 2009 06:43 redtooth wrote:Show nested quote +On October 06 2009 23:19 SynC[gm] wrote:
Horang2: the next player that gets to the Round of 4 and fails... Like by.herO and type-B :D and backho Show nested quote +On October 06 2009 23:23 asdfTT123 wrote:
Who's the 2nd protoss on Sparkyz that qualified other than Horang2? i was wondering this too. i think there was a mistake because there is no other toss from sparkyz that made it.
Don't compare Backho with type-B and by.herO >=].
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On October 06 2009 21:23 iSCd wrote:
Kwanro vs JanbBi
Stork vs SkyHigh
should be nice
Skyhigh's tvp isn't that great and he is playing the dinotoss. I believe stork got this.
Kwanro v jangbi, jangbi, who arguably can have the 3rd best pvz, fails in pvz periodically. Hopefully he can get through especially since kwanro has been a thorn in khan tosses' ass.
Jaehoon v fbh GOGO FBH!
and go reality lol
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Very nice write-up. Thanks a lot!
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Aotearoa39261 Posts
Ironically, both romad and shikyo are right imo haha
When doing a massive recap like this you have to make a decision as to how you want to report it, some people prefer to just spout out results with little commentary, others prefer to take a stance and make it an opinionated piece. The latter is what shikyo did. With respect to the shuttle comment, it has its merit. Obviously shuttle and backho have different styles (although, not overly different when you really think about it) but they both made the semifinals somehow, then dropped out. Additionally, making the claim that he is 'worse' has some merit as well - Backho was able to support Jaedong during PL and won a number of critical games which allowed Jaedong to mop up the mess. Neither are top tier Protoss, but on the whole, Backho has posted the better results. In that respect, both of you are right at the same time. Since what you have said romad is also correct.
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On October 07 2009 05:53 Hot_Bid wrote:
He doesn't give them out because obviously that'd be mostly a breach of trust -- but the guy is legit. If anyone can judge skills from replays, its Romad.
There are 3 pages of replays uploaded by him in the replay section, most or all from progamers. Am I missing something?
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Braavos36374 Posts
On October 07 2009 13:53 jalstar wrote:Show nested quote +On October 07 2009 05:53 Hot_Bid wrote:
He doesn't give them out because obviously that'd be mostly a breach of trust -- but the guy is legit. If anyone can judge skills from replays, its Romad.
There are 3 pages of replays uploaded by him in the replay section, most or all from progamers. Am I missing something?
he's uploaded 100 replays in like 3+ years, i assume these are ones that were either public or allowed to be uploaded. plus 100 is probably not a large percentage of what he actually has.
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09 Records
Group A:
Pusan: 0-4 vs T
fOrGG: 6-5 vs T, 6-12 vs P
Canata: 6-12 vs T, 5-1 vs P
Group B:
Really: 8-9 vs P, 5-7 vs Z
Shine: 5-11 vs T, 2-5 vs P
Bisu: 29-12 vs T, 25-13 vs Z
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Sweden33719 Posts
On October 07 2009 04:41 StarBrift wrote:Show nested quote +On October 06 2009 23:17 (paladin)roMAD wrote:On October 06 2009 23:05 StarBrift wrote:On October 06 2009 22:50 (paladin)roMAD wrote:
This quite a nice write-up, but some of your comments display complete lack of knowledge of players' skills. I am not talking about TV games, i am talking about progamers' skill overall. In my opinion this is the biggest misjudgement of player's skills on tl.net because all of you only take into account their TV games. Of course TV games mean much, but it's just one game in front of a huge audience and mental aspects start to play much bigger role than in practice or qualifiers. On the other hand, it is pretty hard to have a look at their practice games, so this judgement only by TV games is understandable. However, some comments you made are really clueless. Here are some examples:
In group N comment you call Shuttle a 'worse version of BackHo', which is really weird as their playstyle is very different. Shuttle PvT style beats BaBy's style very easily, as he is very good against harass style and his overall PvT is very very good. BaBy's style reminds of FanTaSy's style with many dropships and vuture harassing and his macro is sometimes quite sloppy. So Shuttle easily defends against harassing and just rolls over BaBy's tiny army. On the other hand, Light TvP style is what beats Shuttle really easily. You can call him a master of turtling or whatever. His TvP is all about turtling, i guess the best counter to him is Bisu with his smart recalls.
Another thing you say that 815's weakest mu is ZvT? I'd call it his best mu by far, although his ZvP is becoming better and better. And imo SkyHigh is hyped way too much, especially his TvZ.
Same as with Shuttle goes to Jaehoon. The guy has crazy PvT and overall he's really good, although i didn't expect him to beat FireFist to be honest.
Of course these 'living legendsof fail' in the face of FrOzean and HyuK. They are and were very good players and FrOzean beat both effort and Kwanro 3-2 on Outsider the other day with Effort winning with 4 pool in one of them. He is just very inconsistent and has problems setting his mentality up. HyuK's ZvZ and ZvP are on a high level, although i dunno about his ZvT.
As of Group V you say there were no surprises? How about MVP 2-0 Violet? Interestingly though, i consider Violet as much hyped as Gosi[Flying]. He still has a lot to learn and he is very incosistent. But still, i expected him to take the group.
Reality is an amazing player, reminds me a lot of FlaSh with his great macro. Watch out for him!
A logical question to me would be 'how do you know anyway?' This information is based on replays and iccup statistics that i have. Not that much, but it helps to learn about player's style and see his potential.
I dont want to offend anyone, i just noticed this trend of calling everyone bad just because he lost 6 or 12 games in proleague. They are still good players and if they make it through prelims then it's not just a fluke. It seems to me that basing skill level on TV game appearances is only about a million percent better than basing them off of ICCUP games when you don't even know for sure if the players played all the games on that account or if multiple players used them. Moreover people actually practise and play their best for TV games unlike ICCUP where they might try new stuff out or just practise wierd builds. Much of your post seems to be refuting the statements that some of these players are bad. Yuo are of course right in that they aren't. All the winners of the groups ARE good starcraft players. But what the OP says isn't that they are bad in general, just that they are bad in comparison to the scene or other top players. You have to learn to read between the lines if you're gonna read TL analysis. Believe me, i know for sure who played on what account. And i've watched replays not just pure ICCup statistics. The OP statements about some players reflect a generalized opinion of tl.net community. It has nothing to do with comparison, they are considered bad in general. Sorry for not believing a random russian TL user who uses shared iccup accounts to judge a players skill. An all knowing guy like you wouldn't have missed that koreans mostly share their iccup accounts would you?I'm saying clearly how stupid it is to base skill off of your own guesswork about players you don't even have 100% proof is really them. Stop thinking you know something that the rest of us doesn't because you don't. Basing pure skill on TV appearances only is obviously not 100% accurate but it's one hell of a lot better than your methods which doesn't even guarantee that your observations are from the right player. Even if you would know a players iccup account how many replays have you actually watched of his? 50+? I don't think so. And please don't use "Trust me I know I'm right" as an argument again unless you want to be ripped apart by 100 nerds again. Why would I trust someone I don't know and never heard of?
Romad is a god damn SAVANT when it comes to identifying hotkey patterns.
Trust him. He's right.
EDIT: Oh HB already covered this. Well. What Hot_bid said!
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Lux vs Hwasin will be the one I'm most looking forward to in the near future here, this should be great :D Excellent writeup.
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On October 07 2009 08:49 FireGuyX wrote:Show nested quote +On October 07 2009 04:01 Jenia6109 wrote:So, which Protoss can make it to Ro16: Group A Pusan can do it beating fOrGG and then Canata consecutively. Pusan should try really well even thought he was on fire in OSL/MSL prelims. Group B Bisu should take his group easily no matter who is it, Really or Shine, he will win if he will not overrate himself Group D Barracks is not main problem for JangBi, he will win him if he want while Kwanro can be real obstacle. In last PvZ JangBi lost even to YellOw[ArnC], so it's really hard to predict who will win. It only matters who will prepare better. Group E This group is similar to Group B. After beating Jaedong 2-0 it is no problem for Stork to beat unknown Zerg ggaemo. Also after beating fantasy 2-0 it is no problem to beat sKyHigh. All that Stork should do is to play his standart play and don't choke Group K Who is Pure? No matter because Hyuk is nobody too. Leta is not king of TvP so Pure has at least a chance to surprise us These Protoss will probably fail : Group C BackHo is so middle player now while Calm is S-class player lately. Calm will probably destroy both Reality and BackHo 2-0. Group F
Movie is real dark horse in this OSL. He already beated Jaedong in last MSL but he is still so inconsistent. Even if he will defeat Light he will probably lose to hero who is ZvP specializer.Group H Another dark horse Jaehoon find himself with low TvPer firebathero and last-generation Zerg ZerO who will probably eat Jaehoon, maybe with queens tt Group I Poor poor GuemChi, he will play first set with Luxury. It's pity but he has no chance to win, maybe 1% Group J Horang2 will most likely beat FrOzean but there is EffOrt in second set. No! It's trap! Change your group, Horang2, lol Movies strength is PvZ and you forget that he eliminated by.hero from the Avalon MSL. Movie is 2:0 against by.hero and will most likely beat him again.
Let's just say Light will most likely eat them both for breakfast.
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EPT
