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[GG] Mafia XII - The Summer Season

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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So no fek
Profile Blog Joined June 2005
United States3001 Posts
July 02 2009 17:49 GMT
#9
So glad this is starting. Role confirmed.
#1 Shuttle fan - TeamLiquid CJ Entusman #36 BW4lyfe
So no fek
Profile Blog Joined June 2005
United States3001 Posts
July 02 2009 17:52 GMT
#10
Also, didn't see it in the rules, but edits are illegal as always, right?
#1 Shuttle fan - TeamLiquid CJ Entusman #36 BW4lyfe
So no fek
Profile Blog Joined June 2005
United States3001 Posts
July 03 2009 13:14 GMT
#119
Current people running for Emperor (unless I missed a platform):
HeavOnEarth :
+ Show Spoiler +
On July 03 2009 03:43 HeavOnEarth wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 29 2009 09:38 HeavOnEarth wrote:
I would like to announce my candidacy for Emperor before the game starts and roles are assigned.

from previous thread


BloodyCobbler:
+ Show Spoiler +
OK first off

I AM RUNNING FOR OFFICE

I am already seeing idiocy of players that has led to many vets getting insanely discouraged with playing these games. I appreciate Plexa for trying to make this game interesting with the addition of different roles, tweaking how some work, and the addition of fog. Now lets outline why I should be in office.

Weather

I'm already seeing debate on weather, and You guys are saying opt for rain? We have two medics, each have an extra life, and they can protect people. Historically medics have sucked more than any other role in the game, IE don't depend on them early game, how hard is this to understand, MEDICS DO NOT WIN GAMES. This instantly gets rid of the damn rain option.

Next we have sunny which allows our assassins to attack. If you guys vote for this I will kill you. EVEN IF they hit a mafia, which we all jump and joy in, there is a chance they hit the godfather, and guess what, this means the godfather role gets given to another mafia and we have to find the damn guy again, way to much effort, so sunny isn't an option we want, also vigi roles aren't always reliable, lynches are where we have to win, so SUNNY is out.

Next we have snow, snow is useful for hey additional clues. Guess what, most of the top clue analyzers from all previous games aren't in this one, IE the amount of people benefiting from these clues is so damn small its not worth voting on, so we ignore snow.

This leaves fog, ie WE SPAM FOG. All greens should be voting fog every day to keep it going. It removes the pledges kp from the mafia. So if there would be at least 1 possibly as high as 3 or 4 pledges. This will reduce a KP from the mafia meaning 1-2 less people die at night. THAT IS A GUARENTEE. Medics are not guarenteed to protect so this is a safer bet. So we spam fog until the pledges are all dead, then move on to a different weather. Also note, with fog reducing the mafia KP, the suicide bomber will be less likely to use his ability as it removes even more kp from them.


Leadership
In most games I have played, I have worked in some way in town circles working for the benefit of the town, many times leading to a win for the town. This gives me the experience to help lead the town and help keep it organized. The towns in the last few games have been reduced to very small voices screaming at a mass of chaos and leads to failure, it has to stop. I would make an excellent choice for the leadership purely based off my experience at keeping some form of order.
Untop of that, for once I am one of a very few in terms of a specific skill. I, as ive said in other games, clue analyze. Out of the current player base of this game, Myself and Pyrr are most likely most known for spending time on clues (there may be one or two people from pyrr's game , but i didnt pay much attention to it). This means either him or myself should have the bg protection purely to keep us alive to use that skill. I will do my best to keep us alive.

Double Lynch
I will make sure we get these used on top mafia targets, IE if we have two insanely guilty looking people, double lynch will be used. We wont have to worry about constantly voting for double lynch one day, then worrying mafia stop it. IT WILL GET USED and by god it will get by the town.

These are merely a few points, but seriously with the debate of what to vote on for weather, A strong player is needed as the emperor or we are all fucked.


Vote for me

but more importantly VOTE FOR FOG


L:
+ Show Spoiler +
Fog or Snow are the obvious only choices for Day 1. Snow on days 1 and 2 might give us a very solid clue set from which to work from.

The only thing I worry about regarding an auto-fog vote is the inability to cross check for pledges later on. Basically you guys need to weigh the value of additional clues versus 2 extra kills. Remember that resurrection means that reducing mafia KP is more important, since we can approach a break-even point much quicker.

With that said, this is the only day that Cover is not active. From tomorrow onwards, mafia will likely attempt to get DTs to check covered targets, which means that a double check on the godfather knocks more than both our DTs out; It could also very well confirm a number of mafia as blue, and likely end the game. So would Godfather attempt to run for Emperor and draw DT checks to himself? I would if I were him.

Having said that. I will run for emperor, largely to split the vote and give us at the very least solid lists to check.

I'm not going to bother putting up a fancy platform, because quite frankly we really don't have enough information on mafia numbers or any clues with which to form a decent plan. As with the previous game I was in, I plan on setting up a situation that assures us kills during double lynches on days 3 and 4. Note that our DTs cannot confirm roles; they only get the ability to determine Mafia/Not mafia.

Because of this, It is my opinion that after day 1's 'checks' happen to form circles of trust, we co-ordinate vote list information, and have multiple cross checks to make sure no one is providing false information.

There is, however, a problem with that.

Given Godfather Emperor, Dts can never be certain that the 'other DT' they're told about is the real one. If they doubt and don't role check, Godfather can use DT cover and then we have a situation in which detective info can be faked. This, however, is a foolish gambit; if the fake DT is not mafia, he will not be able to provide the true DT with a vote list to check alongside the list published in the thread, and if he is mafia, reds cannot kill DTs singly without having the other unmask 2 mafia worth 1.5 kp. Essentially the gambit is useless, unless the mafia want to keep the DTs alive, but that would result in a crushing amount of cross checked vote lists.

So, given the fact that the alternative is fucking stupid as shit, Emperor or whomever DTs end up trusting needs to reveal the existance of the other DT. DTs NEED to be sure to check before night starts, however, and we cannot fuck the timing up. In this way, a mafia godfather cannot falsify vote-lists even if a DT replies late and the Godfather is forced to post during night.

All of that said, there are some intentional 'mistakes' left in this plan, and a few potential gambits the mafia could use against it. Feel free to find them.


Platform posts in the spoilers. I'll update as things are added, either in this post, or in another post if people don't want to see too many edits. With that said, Wouldn't really consider HeavOnEarth at the moment due to a lack of platform. Both BC and L have experience and sound platforms, with Pyrry supporting BC.
#1 Shuttle fan - TeamLiquid CJ Entusman #36 BW4lyfe
So no fek
Profile Blog Joined June 2005
United States3001 Posts
July 03 2009 16:12 GMT
#122
Why would we want to vote sunny? :S

Only thing it would do is give our assassins the ability to kill. When we don't have any decent leads, at all. All the other weather options would be superior at this point in the game.

Only reason I'm even giving this a reply is because you say you aren't trolling, so if you aren't, what's your reasoning?
#1 Shuttle fan - TeamLiquid CJ Entusman #36 BW4lyfe
So no fek
Profile Blog Joined June 2005
United States3001 Posts
July 03 2009 18:29 GMT
#135
On July 04 2009 03:11 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 04 2009 01:06 redtooth wrote:
I am not trolling you when I say we should vote Sunny.

Also, we need clarification on the mystic vs Godfather debate. If the Godfather's power takes effect instantly (and prior to mystic using his power) then checking out BC might cause more headaches than benefits because:
- BC might be Townie and flip green
- BC might be Godfather and flip green
- BC might be Mafia and Godfather might use Cover on him so he flips green
- BC might be Townie and Godfather's Cover might cause him to flip red
- BC might be Mafia and just flip red and he might try to argue the above

I doubt he will actually flip red. However, even if he does flip green there are enough scenarios for us to not trust him fully. Remember - town circles should only form and people should only tell someone their role only if there is a 100% chance they are innocent.

I feel like BC is playing like his normal self (bossy, assertive, logically sound) but I am scared to fully trust him from the get go. ~21% of the players were chosen to be mafia so it is possible that either him or MBH were chosen to be mafia. That should lead the town to be suspicious from the get-go.

However, BC is the best candidate for emperor by leaps and bounds. I'm sort of torn but I will go ahead and support his candidacy.

Also, WE SHOULD VOTE SUNNY.



One mystic checks me, one checks L or mbh. very low chance on any of us being the gf, and impossible for all 3 to be gf, ie if both people checked come back as no to the "are they mafia" then guarenteed one, if not both are safe.

Only problem there is that the mystics could potentially check the same person. Just have to be left up to luck, I guess, in who they decide to check.
#1 Shuttle fan - TeamLiquid CJ Entusman #36 BW4lyfe
So no fek
Profile Blog Joined June 2005
United States3001 Posts
July 03 2009 18:47 GMT
#137
One way to decide it, if the DTs are paying attention to this thread, would be to have say 1-19 (on the player list) check you, and then 20-38 check L. There's no guarantee that the DTs aren't close to each other in number, and thus they'd end up checking the same person, but it might statistically be a decent idea.
#1 Shuttle fan - TeamLiquid CJ Entusman #36 BW4lyfe
So no fek
Profile Blog Joined June 2005
United States3001 Posts
July 04 2009 19:11 GMT
#204
If I'm understanding the rules correctly, the dts can't do anything until tomorrow anyway, once cover is in place.

Please note no special abilities (except for weather voting) can be used on Day 1. Assassinations cannot take place on Night 2.


And from Plexa's post on page 10:
When do I activate my ability? Please PM Plexa with your selected choice of ability during the Day.


So mafia has tonight to get lucky with hits, and tomorrow dts can role check. Town is essentially screwed if both L and BC are mafia aligned, and one of them is Godfather. Godfather can use cover on the other, and they'd both pop up town aligned.

That's if I'm understanding the rules correctly. Either way, it makes it harder for the dts when they can act, as not only is there the risk of Godfather, but also the risk of cover. It might even make more sense to randomly rolecheck someone. They'd have a 1/38 shot of getting the Godfather, but if it was someone who has been kinda low-key, I wouldn't see the Godfather wasting cover on them.
#1 Shuttle fan - TeamLiquid CJ Entusman #36 BW4lyfe
So no fek
Profile Blog Joined June 2005
United States3001 Posts
July 05 2009 15:03 GMT
#233
It's a good thing Plexa got rid of the Change of Heart Godfather ability. Just imagine if MBH was revived, and changed to mafia. We'd trust him as a confirmed townie, and it would all be downhill from there.
#1 Shuttle fan - TeamLiquid CJ Entusman #36 BW4lyfe
So no fek
Profile Blog Joined June 2005
United States3001 Posts
July 05 2009 15:17 GMT
#236
So true, and it's much easier for mafia to hide in the inactives if there town is largely inactive. The more people posting, the more mafia has to post (or look suspicious for not posting) and can end up making a mistake of some sort.
#1 Shuttle fan - TeamLiquid CJ Entusman #36 BW4lyfe
So no fek
Profile Blog Joined June 2005
United States3001 Posts
July 05 2009 19:00 GMT
#258
Yeah, it's definitely a fortunate night. We lost 4 people, so our angels didn't save anyone, but at least we didn't lose much blue.

I'll look over the post in a minute and see if anything jumps out at me, but clue analysis is not something that has ever come easy to me. One thing to consider, was redtooth's plan. He stated that if BC was mafia, we were completely fucked. Yet we weren't entirely raped last night. So I'm curious as to what was said between the two of them.
#1 Shuttle fan - TeamLiquid CJ Entusman #36 BW4lyfe
So no fek
Profile Blog Joined June 2005
United States3001 Posts
July 05 2009 20:18 GMT
#269
On July 06 2009 04:58 L wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 06 2009 04:00 So no fek wrote:
Yeah, it's definitely a fortunate night. We lost 4 people, so our angels didn't save anyone, but at least we didn't lose much blue.

I'll look over the post in a minute and see if anything jumps out at me, but clue analysis is not something that has ever come easy to me. One thing to consider, was redtooth's plan. He stated that if BC was mafia, we were completely fucked. Yet we weren't entirely raped last night. So I'm curious as to what was said between the two of them.

Redtooth's plan was a box of idiocy. Our vigis can't hit first night and he wanted us to go sunny. This is a complete red herring.


Yeah, I can imagine the plan itself made no sense whatsoever, but he said that if BC was mafia, the game was essentially over, which leads me to believe he told BC something he probably shouldn't have (the most obvious thing being blue roles) - either that or he just made the whole thing up, and he's mafia himself.
#1 Shuttle fan - TeamLiquid CJ Entusman #36 BW4lyfe
So no fek
Profile Blog Joined June 2005
United States3001 Posts
July 07 2009 03:35 GMT
#416
With rain, an angel can either double protect one target, or split his protection.
#1 Shuttle fan - TeamLiquid CJ Entusman #36 BW4lyfe
So no fek
Profile Blog Joined June 2005
United States3001 Posts
July 07 2009 04:42 GMT
#418
On July 07 2009 13:25 JeeJee wrote:
c0bbles please do me a favour and at least use your/you're where appropriate. If you're too lazy to type the apostrophe it's fine, just type youre instead, so at least I don't have to cringe every time I see the town's leader failing grade 1 english.

Malongo, snow is silly. Clues are great and all, except for the part where they totally suck. Fog's the way to go, even now.



It's actually funny you're the one to jump on that. Mainly because a few pages back, before you went at it with Foolishness, I was cringing at him incorrectly using your/you're 2/4 times. I wasn't going to say anything, but then you and him starting going at it, and I wouldn't have been surprised if you brought it up.
#1 Shuttle fan - TeamLiquid CJ Entusman #36 BW4lyfe
So no fek
Profile Blog Joined June 2005
United States3001 Posts
July 07 2009 15:32 GMT
#442
Yeah, Truthbringer wanting to search out priests is something I noticed, and didn't mention because it just seems kinda obvious that it goes against him.
Sure, we could search out the priest, but posting it in this topic would only do two things. Allow the mafia to stack hits on him, and allow our angels to protect him. And we wouldn't have rain up, so the mafia could kill him for sure, and the angels, if protecting him, could die to a suicide bomb.

Before the Gosu message came to light, I had also been thinking about the kill list. What if mafia just chose seemingly random targets, to throw us off, and make us think that they didn't have any good players? Killing all green would make us relax a bit, and everyone has been saying things like "Okay, mafia doesn't have any good players, lol, we're safe", but spelling out the Gosu message, if planned, could tell a different story.

Waste the night one kills with a fun message. If we get any blues, cool. If not, all the better, they now think we're incompetent. Tonight's kills will give us a better idea, but it could have a lot more blue on it tonight, I'm thinking. :/
#1 Shuttle fan - TeamLiquid CJ Entusman #36 BW4lyfe
So no fek
Profile Blog Joined June 2005
United States3001 Posts
July 07 2009 19:07 GMT
#454
On July 08 2009 00:27 TruthBringer wrote:
About the priest analysis debate . . . angels/medics have been notoriously bad at protecting the right targets. And people were talking about using rain to allow the angels to protect the priest and avoid him getting suicide bombed.

I just figured that as it stands, it is much more likely the mafia would figure out who the priest is and kill him than the two angels.

The plan to claim to MBH only works if the priest lives long enough to revive him.

And FFS, I didn't start clue analyzing on the priest, I brought up for discussion whether or not we should clue analyze on the priest.


Wanted to point another thing out with why publicly stating who the priest is would hurt us. If we voted rain, the suicide bomber couldn't bomb the angel, however, mafia's KP wouldn't be lowered. So they'd still have KP of 5, while angels could protect 4. Even if both angels stacked, the priest would still die. (unless I'm overlooking something)

So unless we manage to lynch someone today that reduces mafia KP (unlikely), if the priest were publicly known, mafia could still stack kills and take care of him. There's only two ways this could actually help the town. If someone managed to create some absolutely flawless, that has us all believing, fake analysis on who the priest is, but it's actually a townie. Mafia/angels stack hits/protection, and one townie dies for the night. But I don't see anyway that could actually happen, as finding a townie that isn't mafia/blue, and then linking the fake clues to them would be kinda tough, and I doubt that mafia would buy it enough to stack all their hits. The other way it would help the town is more or less the same: Causing mafia to stack as many hits as possible, thus lowering the deaths for the night, but they'd only stack hits if they were pretty sure they were hitting a valuable target (the priest).

And the bad far outweighs the good there. At the moment, the town is moving pretty slow, and we really need MBH to guide us. If the priest dies before MBH is up, we just wasted a day or two, lost our resurrection ability, and one of the best players in the game, who happens to be a confirmed townie.


Simply put, there is absolutely no benefit to putting the priest out in the open, as the bad would far outweigh any good that would come from it. Unless mafia is retarded and screwed up the way they stacked hits.
#1 Shuttle fan - TeamLiquid CJ Entusman #36 BW4lyfe
So no fek
Profile Blog Joined June 2005
United States3001 Posts
July 07 2009 20:18 GMT
#457
I think either would be viable today, however, if we went with rain, a medic list might be a good idea. List checks could be very helpful (and in extreme cases may more than make up for the +1 KP), but ideally with rain, we'd want to knock the overnight kills to 4, if not even lower, so we make up for the -1 KP for fog.
#1 Shuttle fan - TeamLiquid CJ Entusman #36 BW4lyfe
So no fek
Profile Blog Joined June 2005
United States3001 Posts
July 07 2009 20:28 GMT
#459
Yeah, was thinking that. Just hope our medics are actually decent this game around, and can make okay decisions on who deserves a save.
#1 Shuttle fan - TeamLiquid CJ Entusman #36 BW4lyfe
So no fek
Profile Blog Joined June 2005
United States3001 Posts
July 07 2009 20:28 GMT
#460
Or is likely to be hit, rather.
#1 Shuttle fan - TeamLiquid CJ Entusman #36 BW4lyfe
So no fek
Profile Blog Joined June 2005
United States3001 Posts
July 07 2009 23:10 GMT
#465
ydg, out of curiosity, why haven't you changed for vote from ecomania to TruthBringer? Granted you may think Truthbringer is innocent (or it's a mafia mind game, I don't know), but you would think that if you're going to be lynched, that you'd put your vote on the currently leading lynch choice, putting that extra layer of security between you being safe and you being lynched.

Please don't change your vote because of me, I'd just like to know why you're okay with being so close to a lynch.
#1 Shuttle fan - TeamLiquid CJ Entusman #36 BW4lyfe
So no fek
Profile Blog Joined June 2005
United States3001 Posts
July 08 2009 00:56 GMT
#478
Chances are Plexa won't give anyone information until the game is finished. At least that's how I assume it will play out.
#1 Shuttle fan - TeamLiquid CJ Entusman #36 BW4lyfe
So no fek
Profile Blog Joined June 2005
United States3001 Posts
July 08 2009 04:30 GMT
#498
Might be a waste, but a quick question for Plexa:


When to activate Double Lynch ability? You can let me know by PM that you wish to use a double lynch in the night before you want to use it. You can also announce a double lynch during the day of voting. If you choose this option the time allocated for voting will be increased.


Would it be too late to call the double lynch now?

And to be honest, it wouldn't surprise me if ydg is innocent (or Truthbringer for that matter), but they're our best bets at the moment, and their behavior has been suspect enough. I'm going to laugh if ydg flips green, and then we can forever call him a stupid townie.
#1 Shuttle fan - TeamLiquid CJ Entusman #36 BW4lyfe
So no fek
Profile Blog Joined June 2005
United States3001 Posts
July 08 2009 04:32 GMT
#499
And by "might be a waste" I mean that it might not be worth using the double lynch at this point. Sure, we have three, but I think we're all hoping that MBH can give us a good amount of solid suspects, and then we can use them in succession if needed there.
#1 Shuttle fan - TeamLiquid CJ Entusman #36 BW4lyfe
So no fek
Profile Blog Joined June 2005
United States3001 Posts
July 08 2009 04:46 GMT
#504
Personally, I think there's a different chance that they're both green, and mafia are split at least somewhat evenly between all the candidates for lynch. We won't know until they die, but if it does turn out that way, the mafia are going to be laughing their asses off.
#1 Shuttle fan - TeamLiquid CJ Entusman #36 BW4lyfe
So no fek
Profile Blog Joined June 2005
United States3001 Posts
July 08 2009 18:22 GMT
#561
So, Mr. Julia could be the Hulk, but then who does the Hulk link to? Only person I could think of is BWDero, because of his comic book character picture, however, that's a very weak connection, at best.
#1 Shuttle fan - TeamLiquid CJ Entusman #36 BW4lyfe
So no fek
Profile Blog Joined June 2005
United States3001 Posts
July 08 2009 19:04 GMT
#568
Another thing to consider would be the "if mafia ran for Emperor, who would it be?". Four people ran (think JeeJee ran jokingly, but never followed up past his post), MBH, L, BC, and HeavOnEarth.

MBH is a (dead) confirmed townie.
HeavOnEarth pulled out of the race, and supported BC.
BC won and became Emperor.
L lost.

Truthbringer was the first to vote for BC, with no reasoning. He also supported ydg's lynching, not sure off the top of my head if he posted his reasons.

L was the one that did the analysis of TruthBringer, which led to us lynching a mafia.

At the moment, I personally think that if any of the candidates was mafia, BC would be the strongest suspect, which would put is in a tough situation. The only real evidence against him (if you look at it in a negative light - it could also be positive if it works), is killing MBH. If he's mafia, he gets rid of one of the best players for two days, and gets a decent chance to snipe the priest before MBH is resurrected, and thus out of the game for good. However, it shouldn't be seen in an entirely negative light, because if the plan works, MBH can hopefully guide us.

If BC turns red, HeavOnEarth could potentially be mafia. The entirety of his campaign was a bit iffy, such as him bowing out and immediately supporting BC, when he himself stated that it was likely the Godfather was among all the candidates. However, that's not to say he is mafia, and much like BC's case, it's all speculation at this point. He abstained from the lynch vote, which doesn't really help the town, but it doesn't hurt it either.

One thing to consider is that ydg could still be mafia, though I personally think he's innocent. If he eventually does flip mafia, then most of the suspicions on BC would be lifted.

I suppose we can't entirely dismiss L from being mafia at this point, however, I'd say the chance is less than 5% (had to do it). The only way L could be mafia is if it was a mafia ploy to get us trusting him, and then maybe have blues send their roles and all. Which would only really be an option if MBH doesn't get resurrected. People can still choose to form circles, but a mass list of who is who is dangerous, when there is even any doubt of the person's alignment.

Another reason L isn't entirely dismissed is the Gosu message. It's possible the message was coincidental, but I think more likely than not, our enemy is toying with us. Such as saying "we're better than you - we can waste a full night's kills and still win the game". In BC's game, L also managed to get away with a lot as mafia (Ver is godfather). However, I think that putting one of your own up on the chopping block AND playing alphabet soup would be pushing it too far.


I'm not saying that any of the candidates are mafia, however, if any of them are, I'd say L is the safest bet for being a townie.


#1 Shuttle fan - TeamLiquid CJ Entusman #36 BW4lyfe
So no fek
Profile Blog Joined June 2005
United States3001 Posts
July 08 2009 19:24 GMT
#576
On July 09 2009 04:22 StorrZerg wrote:
Seeing that sun made me think of a new day



Same.
#1 Shuttle fan - TeamLiquid CJ Entusman #36 BW4lyfe
So no fek
Profile Blog Joined June 2005
United States3001 Posts
July 09 2009 06:05 GMT
#609
Needs more Bee Gees.
#1 Shuttle fan - TeamLiquid CJ Entusman #36 BW4lyfe
So no fek
Profile Blog Joined June 2005
United States3001 Posts
July 12 2009 02:43 GMT
#957
lol
#1 Shuttle fan - TeamLiquid CJ Entusman #36 BW4lyfe
So no fek
Profile Blog Joined June 2005
United States3001 Posts
July 21 2009 12:13 GMT
#1460
Self owned.
#1 Shuttle fan - TeamLiquid CJ Entusman #36 BW4lyfe
Normal
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