Good morning, everyone. I'll be running for office.
First of all, if I'll be selected as Mayor, I'm planning on lynching someone who's extremely suspicious, if there is one. Because it is highly unlikely for there to be a really suspicious red this early in the game(even if this is the newbies' game), there are other options. Even if day 1 clues can't really be put too much emphasis on, if they point at a relatively suspicious person, that person would be high on my lynching list. That's basically how I'm planning on using the day 1's clues; As a support for suspicious people, and also as a support for future clues. In the case there is absolutely no one suspicious(highly unlikely), I will think about it according to the situation, most likely someone relatively inactive.
I don't believe in relying primarily on the day 1 clues to lynch someone, since they're normally way too vague to be able to fully determine a mafia just by analysing them. We could all see what happened with Pyrr's analysis in Chuiu's last Mafia.
In the case that I'll be elected as the town's Sheriff, I'll only be able to incarcenate 2 people, which is quite low. I'm planning on using my incarceration ability to incarcerate either
1. A good player I believe to be a townie that I believe for whatever reason won't receive the medic protection he would require in order to survive the night(This is the most likely use) or
2. In the case that the town has figured out at least 2 surefire Mafia, but we only have a single lynch available. Now, if the incarceration would reduce Mafia's firepower, I think it might be a good idea to incarcerate the other Mafia and lynching the other, and then lynching the incarcerated Mafia the next day. However, this will be rarer, and I will more likely be using the incarceration to just protect the good players who require it.
My voting policy is to mostly vote for the people the town wants dead, assuming it makes sense. I will not fall for stupid bandwagons, and will try to make the town come to it's senses. I might abstain from voting as well, if there is no one I see as highly suspicious or if I believe my vote won't be needed, however, that should be rare. I will always follow logic, and will not make too hasty decisions. I will generally vote for a suspicious player who can be connected to clues.
However, I'll be wary of Mafia attempting to make the clues seem to point at someone they obviously are not. I will also be suspicious of everyone except confirmed townies, especially bandwagon starters and people acting inconsistantly. If there are no good targets for lynch, I might have to abstain, or possibly vote for an inactive who is acting fishy.
My information policy is to tell mostly everything to everyone, unless it is information that would benefit Mafia. I will generally not send many PM's and I won't reveal my role to anyone. I also suggest everyone to not reveal their role to me or anyone else, regardless of if I am going to be elected or not. However, sometimes PMing might be necessary in order to keep information from Mafia, but I'm still planning on doing it the absolute, bare minimum.
My experience with Mafia is limited to watching the past 2 games and I'm also following Mafia VIII closely. I haven't personally player any Mafia games, except a few very small ones with my school class a while back.
I would say that my strong point would be behavioral analysis and logic, and also finding logic in others and where it should be when it's not. For example, I was able to figure out that Qatol was Mafia in the last game quite early on(Then again, who couldn't?). I'm not all that confident about my skill at analysing clues, though. Even though in the last game I was able to figure something out and some things made sense, in Chuiu's game before that, I didn't get almost any of the clues even after they were revealed. That's why, even though I'm going to do my best in clue analysing, I'm planning on mostly leaving it for others to handle.
I also know how people acted in the past few Mafia games somewhat, so that might be able to help me figure out who is being inconsistant with their behavior. I am going to make my decisions logically and I am going to think and consider every situation calmly. However, I am able to use slightly stronger language in order to get my point accross when it's needed.
I started running for office partly because that was my plan even before the game started, and partly because I wasn't happy at all with the other people's platform's.
Jimtudor's platform is essentially "I'm good at everything, although you know nothing of me, and I won't tell you what I'm going to do, but we'll kill all reds", which is less than satisfactory, even if the anti-red talk might sound nice and all.
iLoveKTF's platform seems slightly bette... actually, no it doesn't. He's just telling who he'd lynch if he was selected as mayor, and that's that, even disregarding the role of sheriff completely. Even if he did play well as a medic in the last game, that doesn't mean that he can simply run for office without a platform whatsoever. Also, I absolutely detest the picture he stole from Caller.
For now, all I'm going to ask for everyone is to vote, be it for me or anyone else. It's all we have, so be sure to use your power wisely.
On May 18 2009 17:10 The_Master wrote: I am up for lynching inactive people on the first day. First of all, they are going to get killed anyway in a couple days, and if there is not enough evidence to pinpoint anyone it's better than just choosing a random active person (who is more than likely a townie).
Yes, it is possible that we might accidentally kill a blue role, but we might get a maffie as well. Anyway, there isn't much difference a blue role who doesn't do anything and dead blue role.
If someone is acting suspicious, I'm all for it - but I doubt that will happen on the first day.
I think this is a bad idea. Yes we may hit a mafioso, but last game I played we voted for lynching an inactive we hit blue. A mad-hatter at that. I'm sure there will be some sort of inactivity from some of the players, but immediately going for them after not posting for one day is not the way to go.
I say we watch for anything weird during the elections.
Well, even if inactives might or might not be the first choice, if we don't ever hit the inactives the Mafia can easily just hide amongst them and have us running around after each other like headless chickens. "We might hit a blue" isn't really a good argument, there's always the chance.
On May 18 2009 17:10 The_Master wrote: I am up for lynching inactive people on the first day. First of all, they are going to get killed anyway in a couple days, and if there is not enough evidence to pinpoint anyone it's better than just choosing a random active person (who is more than likely a townie).
Yes, it is possible that we might accidentally kill a blue role, but we might get a maffie as well. Anyway, there isn't much difference a blue role who doesn't do anything and dead blue role.
If someone is acting suspicious, I'm all for it - but I doubt that will happen on the first day.
I think this is a bad idea. Yes we may hit a mafioso, but last game I played we voted for lynching an inactive we hit blue. A mad-hatter at that. I'm sure there will be some sort of inactivity from some of the players, but immediately going for them after not posting for one day is not the way to go.
I say we watch for anything weird during the elections.
Well, even if inactives might or might not be the first choice, if we don't ever hit the inactives the Mafia can easily just hide amongst them and have us running around after each other like headless chickens. "We might hit a blue" isn't really a good argument, there's always the chance.
I just don't want them to be the first choice. I didn't say we never hit the inactives. At this point there will be some level of inactivity at the start and most of the players are first timers, I don't expect them to post immediately after a day post. Just because them being inactive isn't a reason to lynch them outright. Like I said, the best way to weed out the suspicious ones right now is how everybody acts during the elections.
Yeah, I agree. Lynching inactives should be for when we have no good information. However, the suspicions need to be quite strong in order to lynch an actively posting player. On town's side, they're always more valuable than inactives are. And during the first day, it's usually quite difficult to find out who exactly would be mafia. Although we can probably narrow it down slightly. For example, posting a lot early and discussing things actively reduces the chance of someone being mafia. I doubt they would be posting much yet, they need to somehow get organized first. Some mafia are most likely still asleep, and I doubt the others would dare to post too much without discussing with the ones who are asleep.
About the candidates? As far as I can see, there are only 2 candidates besides me, and no one has any votes yet. It's kind of interesting that no one has voted yet. I personally can't say anything about myself, but I don't like either of the other candidates' platforms as of yet.
I'm wondering why iLoveKTF is specifically requesting to be Mayor. What might his motives be for that?
Oh, by the way, I think that the clue analysis by softer is the best one we have thus far, although I still wouldn't bet anything on it. However, if we see some similiarities in day 2 or day 3 posts, we might have a reasonable suspect.
On May 18 2009 23:13 vx70GTOJudgexv wrote: Shikyo, I think going off of "I doubt the others would dare to post too much without discussing with the ones who are asleep." is going to work here, because this is a new game. That leaves a lot of wild cards for us.
I won't vote for a mayor who is going to lynch an inactive because like someone else said, an mafia can just echo other people to stay alive, while we risk just killing ourselves. There are a lack of solid clues, but we still have some solid things working here. A couple people come up in multiple clue hits (Teks, Jayme) and depending on what others see come up, we might be able to actually nail one of these guys right off.
Especially since it's a newbie game, I believe that the players wouldn't want to screw the rest of the mafia over, and would indeed try to consult others instead of acting alone. Of course, they could post harmless posts, but I doubt they would post anything significant.
If we never lynch inactives, Mafia can just hide amongs them. And I don't mean the no-vote inactives, I mean the vote-and-post-an-one-liner-now-and-then inactives. If there are better targets, we'll go for them. However, if we have no suspects, lynching an inactive should be better than lynching an active townie.
About Jayme and Teks, even if it's still too early to say anything definite, Jayme might be the most suspicious thus far, although not enough for me to think he's definitely a mafia. Teks... it'd help to know if Pyrr knew how much he likes Erlend Loe.
Also, it's nice to see some quality posting. Seems like the Americans are starting to wake up.
Excessive clue analysis based on the clues of day 1 is never a good thing, and we should never lynch anyone based solely, or even primarily, on then. They're best used as support for other clues.
About the lynching of an inactive. It's not just a stab to the dark. First of all, it encourages players to be active. Second, an inactive townie would be useless anyway and enable Mafia to hide amongst them, as mentioned. Third, it forces the Mafia to come out and start posting more, possibly exposing themselves somewhat. We can't just let inactive people be. A missed lynch of an inactive makes the mafia come out and makes other players be more active. And an inactive townie never was useful in the first place.
And about lynching an active poster who some clues might point at, that we can only do by day 2 or 3. Day 1 clues are far too subtle to be able to make out anything off them alone. If we were to lynch someone based on them, it had better have some quite strong support by behavioral analysis, as well.
Hmmm chaoser just said what I've been saying all along, and that's a good point about blues.
Everyone, more people should try to run for the office. Assuming there's one Mafia running for the office now, we'll only have one combination where a Mafia wouldn't be in the office. Another reason is that the posts for the election have been mostly lackluster, and I really would like to place my vote on someone.
I'm not exactly sure if KTF is slumping, though... it might be a bit too far-fetched. But of course, we have to keep this stuff in mind some clues come up later that might relate to these. Still, day 1 clues are day 1 clues, so please don't draw any strange conclusions off them. + Show Spoiler [very minor Death Note spoilers] +
L actually isn't the main character of Death Note; Light is. And he's not a police officer, but rather a righteous/religious school boy.
On May 19 2009 00:56 vx70GTOJudgexv wrote: It's definitely worth keeping track of all these things even if they seem wild now, it may all come together at one point, and best to be prepared.
On May 19 2009 00:51 teks wrote:
On May 19 2009 00:47 chaoser wrote: Like i said before, the fact that so MANY clues are being pointed at someone seems kinda weird (horn, glass breaking, slump all "point" to iLoveKTF) Perhaps only one of those clues point to him. The hard thing about this game is that most people are new so there's hardly any behavior analysis to go off of =[
Yeah, it's not very likely that they are all valid clues pointing to the same person, it would make things too easy for a day 1 clue imo. But for each possible clue the chance that one of them is real increases, and this is something we should keep in mind when voting, seeing how he IS running for office (although he mentioned that he didn't check his role before nominating himself).
This is Mafia. He could be lying. We never know.
what is mafia?
"Pyrry's --->Mafia<--- Game - Day 1"
I too do think that the mafia shouldn't have posted too actively yet, and I doubt they would have anyone running for office yet. I think we should wait for a while longer, until everyone in America is able to post as well, and then possibly compose a list of inactive users.
On May 19 2009 00:43 Shikyo wrote: I'm not exactly sure if KTF is slumping
You wouldn't be saying that if you had KTF in FPL
@teks: everyone can say they didn't check their roles before nominating for sheriff/mayor but that doesn't make it any more true and imo anyone who says that are only trying to draw suspicion away from themself
I don't think KTF really was a favorite in the first place.
And that's correct, that's why I think the chance of being mafia is higher if someone says that.
Okay, at least there's one more person running for office, now. The game has been quite quiet thus far, I wonder if it'll at any point become more active.
I would make a list of inactives if that wasn't like 2/3th's of the town. ^_^ Well, iLoveKTF hasn't really said anything after his office announcement and the first few posts, and hasn't addressed the clues in any way. That, to me, seems quite suspicious.
JeeJee's platform is based mostly on "I'm experienced"... which still is better than the other candidates', I guess. Lynching inactives is always good, though. Which brings me to vx70GTOJudgexv.
Could you please tell me the reason why you are against lynching inactives so much? You seem like an intelligent person, and it seems like you've been following the last few Mafia games. You should know how important activity is for the town, and how lynching inactives nearly always helps the town somehow.
You also should know that there's a good chance of hitting a Mafia by lynching an inactive. So how come you are so strongly against lynching inactives, despire what you've seen and learnt in the past Mafia games? I would love to hear something about this from you.
Yeah, I still have no idea if I should keep my vote abstained or actually vote for someone. For now, it seems like iLoveKTF is the lowest on my list of people to vote. I'm trying to figure something out right now, might possibly post something later.
Oh yes, I forgot. Pyrr, is it too much work if you had links on the front page for every day and every night, just like Chuiu did in his last game? It's incredibly useful and convenient, so if it's not too troublesome, it'd be great. Or were you going to only include them in the OP? That works too, I just think it'd be useful when trying to find certain posts that happened at a certain time.
EDIT: This is the last time I'll edit one of my posts. Spelled a word wrong.
That would be Black Bolt, King of the Inhumans.
@chaoser
Even if we do lynch an inactive blue we don't really hurt the town because they were inactive anyways.
I support killing off an inactive. But only if no major suspects come up. Seeing how this is only the first day I seriously doubt any suspects will come up. Seeing as how day 1 clue analysis is rubbish and only an idiot mafia would betray himself so early.
This post can basically be considered as just repeating information that already has been said, without adding anything new. So what's so interesting about this post? It is the usage of some powerful words, especially "idiot" and "rubbish". I checked all of BWdero's post from the last 3 games he played in, and indeed, he never used this kind of language, rather, his posts were respective most of the time, although there were sometimes a few sarcastic lines mixed in. He was a townie in all 3 games.
Also, the word "betray" feels slightly strange here. Would a townie use the word "betray" like this? To me, it seems more likely that he would feel like they themselves would be betrayed to use such a word. Which would make me believe he'd be mafia.
Also, there's the issue of him voting for JeeJee, which is what made me initially check him up, after his first post had caught my eye before. He basically only came on and voted. Isn't that strange? Now, I checked his voting history the past 3 games, and he has generally been bandwagoning, as in, voting for the person with the most votes.In one case in the last mafia, there were multiple possible lynchables, where he abstained. In the same mafia, he voted for Qatol for office after 4 people had voted him before him.
In all the lynch votes, he was generally voting for the person who had the most votes. In mafia 5, however, he voted for semioldguy, although BC had more votes at the moment. After that, however, he changed his vote to Pyrruloxia right after 3 people had voted for him.
So in this case, it seems really strange for him to come on just to vote for JeeJee without having really said anything in the thread for a long time. And his language and word choice seem suspicious to me, as well.
On May 19 2009 08:12 Jayme wrote: What bothers me most about this bandwagon... or start of one really is that Shikyo hasn't really done anything for his platform to warrant this sort of response.
It's a game filled with newer players, a great deal of which might just wait behind the scenes and go with what popular opinion is to not get lynched. All you would really need is a few confidence votes or at least the illusion of one and you'd definitely get the surge of voting needed to bring out other people to your cause.
It's just a wild guess of mine, but maybe it's the same reason why I haven't voted yet... I don't believe their platforms are good enough, really. Jimtudor's would probably be the best thus far, but I'm not really sure about all the with-me-we-kill-all-red attitude in his first post for office cancidacy. The experience and the lynching inactives etc. are, well, pretty obvious in a sense. He's done some decent clue analysis, though, and his later posts have been better, so maybe he'd be my first pick for now. But really, it's still ... yeah.
Well, JeeJee, I think there's a difference between joining a bandwagon and actually starting a whole new one. It's easy to join an existing one, and l10f indeed seems like a standard bandwagoner to me, although he really should try to think about it himself. Teks voting for me first seems reasonable to me, trying to think objectively. We had a kind of a conversation a few pages back, for example. Whenever a player is voted for the first time, it makes me suspicious. More suspicious than normally in this case, because BWdero has a history of bandwagoning.
l10f, you might want to read my post for office a couple of pages back, and then read other people's posts, and then decide who you really want for sherif. You really shouldn't vote just because a person has the most votes. But of course it's not like I mind you voting for me, just make sure to decide to do so yourself.
JeeJee, this argument isn't leading anywhere. His way of talking, albeit odd, wasn't really my main concern. I was just stating what I thought and observed, it's up to you to make out of it what you will.
I would also like to propose that DTs rolecheck the losing parties of the elections asap. As was said in the other mafia game, it's likely at least one mafia is attempting to get elected, and so the losing candidates would be ideal targets for the DTs, assuming that no other, higher priority targets come up.
On May 19 2009 09:09 Shikyo wrote: JeeJee, this argument isn't leading anywhere. His way of talking, albeit odd, wasn't really my main concern. I was just stating what I thought and observed, it's up to you to make out of it what you will.
I would also like to propose that DTs rolecheck the losing parties of the elections asap. As was said in the other mafia game, it's likely at least one mafia is attempting to get elected, and so the losing candidates would be ideal targets for the DTs, assuming that no other, higher priority targets come up.
Except that mafia candidates are likely to end up in office..
That's true, but we have to prevent that before DTs can be used. Also, mafia only have 6 votes for the person anyway, we'll just need to vote intelligently. After that, we wouldn't be able to do anything about that anyway, so we should just dt check the other candidates. If they all are innocent, chances are that there's a mafia in the office. At least by then we should become suspicious of the people in office and figure out who isn't making sense, although we probably should be able to catch onto it even sooner.
Of course, if someone has a better idea or at least a good one, I'm sure we'd all love to hear it.
On May 19 2009 09:24 Foolishness wrote: Shikyo, it is interesting that you mention mafia only have 6 votes for a person, obviously since a candidate cannot vote for himself. Looking at what's happened so far, you have not yet voted for someone, and you also have stated that you are iffy about voting altogether. Clearly, a mafia running for office would not vote for anyone else as that would lessen the chances of him winning. Also not to mention you have received some votes from some not very active people, which seems suspicious.
Yes, only 6 votes for a person. 7 mafia total, 1 being the candidate. I think I got the math right. If you've actually looked at the other candidate's platforms that might partly be a reason for why those inactive people haven't voted for them, although I'm sure you considered that. Actually, a mafia running for office most likely would vote for someone. Namely, a player he thinks wouldn't be that useful in the office.
Voting wouldn't decrease the mafia electee's chances at all. If he's close to dropping out as third, the mafia electee will just vote for the person who's winning. If he's winning, he'll vote for the person who'd be least useful in office. It's easy to think that abstaining would make your chances of getting into the office, but that's not really true.
It might be relevant if the mafia electee was specifically trying to win, but as has been said already, it seems like the role of the Mayor would benefit mafia more than the Sheriff, and hence mafia has no reason to do that. If it was a 3-way tie, the electee will just vote for someone who's lost his chances to win anyway. Oh yes. And a townie electee would vote just the same if he was trying to get elected, so that doesn't make a difference in my eyes. If it does, won't mind admitting that I'm wrong.
On May 19 2009 09:09 Shikyo wrote: I would also like to propose that DTs rolecheck the losing parties of the elections asap. As was said in the other mafia game, it's likely at least one mafia is attempting to get elected, and so the losing candidates would be ideal targets for the DTs, assuming that no other, higher priority targets come up.
Yeah I also proposed this idea earlier in this thread. I'm sure you are also aware that this does raise questions about your status as well, seeing how you're making this proposition when you can be relatively sure to get into office. If you do happen to be the only red participating in the election, not only will you gain an office position, but also make the DT's waste role checks.
Even if there is a chance this could happen, I still support this idea. In the case that the DT's do not find any mafia amongst the remaining candidates, we gain two things:
1) The possibility of there being mafia in office 2) Forming a Town Hall consisting of DT's and the losing candidates. This would prove useful as the candidates are people who say they are experienced and active.
If the DT's DO find a mafia, all the better :p
I thought I already agreed with you back then, but I think I did that only in my mind. I guess you could get suspicious of me, but that can't really be helped and I still think it'd be the best thing to do. Of course, if there'd be better suspects for role checks, they might get a higher priority. About DTs, it might be worth clue checking people with the most clues pointing to them. Jayme, for example, would be a likely target for a clue check.
On May 19 2009 09:33 So no fek wrote: I highly doubt that all the mafia would vote for one candidate. Especially in a smaller game. The smart thing for them to do would have a few people vote for the candidate they want, enough that if a few townies join in, they secure the election, while the remaining mafia members vote for a townie to toss off suspicion.
And the main problem with the DT checking the other candidates, is it wastes their limited amount of rolechecks, with no reasoning behind rolechecking them other than "they ran for mayor and didn't win". I'm not saying it's a bad idea, because we can almost always assume that mafia wants a position of power, and thus is likely to run for mayor. If we rolecheck and get two townies, we can lynch the mayor, as he's likely mafia. But that all seems like a very risky way of doing things. We use up rolechecks on iffy suspects, and if worse came to worse, we lynch a townie mayor because the other candidates came up townie.
These are actually valid concerns, and even though I think it'd be a good idea, we still should give a higher rolecheck priority to more... suspected suspects. But even if they turn green, we can't go lynching the mayor for no reason, we have to closely study his votes and what he's been saying and such, and if something feels off, then it might be good to lynch him.
I love how Foolishness is basically doing nothing in this thread but casting suspicion on me, without actually considering for a second that it might be possible that some people actually like my campaign better than the others'. I think before this he only posted twice before, let's see... Oh, you were saying that lynching inactives is a bad idea and that we should be lynching suspicious people, and then you're basically saying that I'm that suspicious person. Interesting, although I don't really find a person, who says that lynching inactives is a bad idea, all that credible.
On May 19 2009 10:12 crate wrote: Keep in mind we are electing two people here. Even if you think Shikyo is the best candidate that doesn't mean the best move is to vote for him.
To the candidates: I'd like to see you step it up. The town needs to come up with some sort of plan for the future days. If you're serious about the town winning, then regardless of who's voting for you it's in your best interest to help brainstorm ideas for possible scenarios. None of the four candidates have convinced me they're enough of an asset to ensure the bodyguard protection is worth spending on them. Shikyo probably has the best platform, but it's only talking about himself. What about the rest of your town, guys? This game isn't about winning the election; it's about finding and outing the reds.
Here's a start, pulled from my own Mafia experiences in the past and from reading games on this site:
I think getting a confirmed towny is a great situation; it lets us roleclaim to that person (who can then compare with the role counts we know) and organizes a mouth for DTs to speak through to give us their information while leaving the fewest number of town-aligned players exposed. Whoever our confirmed towny is should keep everyone on a need-to-know basis so that we can check inconsistencies better--if a mafia roleclaims DT, for instance....
Having an incarceration available for the confirmed towny is also great. This exact scenario happened in Chuiu's Mafia 5 as I suggested earlier.
The problem is getting a confirmed towny. I see two possible ways which I already talked about. The best is a successful Vigi hit on a mafia if we can strongly connect the clue analysis to the Vigi. The other is getting a blocked medic hit on anyone, in which case the medic can confirm the innocence of the person who was hit.
Hm... This post is obviously unfinished (how can the mafia try to muddle this plan? how can we as a town get around that? what if we don't get a confirmed towny?). I'll leave it this way for now--I have stuff to do--and see what other people can fill in on it/add to it. When I get a chance I'll come back to my thoughts and see if I can think of other plans should we not be able to confirm a towny.
This was another great post by you. And yes, those ways are indeed some that allow you to get a confirmed townie. I think I remember discussion about a vigi calling his hit beforehand and then he's be the confirmed townie, etc, but it didn't really work out for some reason.
A successful medic protection is likely to be the best way for this, since the clues might be difficult to connect to the vigi. Unless he spoke before he actually hit, in which case he'd tell who he'll hit(He sends his hit before stepping out, and if the mafia didn't plan to hit him beforehand, he will hit). Then it's simple for the town to connect the clues to the vigi and he would become the confirmed townie. Then he'd be incarcerated for the following night and hopefully by the time mafia could do something, the town would have gotten something going. I'm not sure why this didn't work out in that game, it seems great on paper...
I believe we should think of DT checklists for DTs, for both clue checks and role checks, later on. Also, we need a medic list for active people who are important for the town. I'm not sure how far we can plan this before the election is actually over, though. And it's about 4:30 am right now so I think I'll get back to this tomorrow. Most of this stuff was common sense, tomorrow I'll try to write something more interesting.
On May 19 2009 11:46 Foolishness wrote: Shikyo, just because I've only made a few posts has nothing to do with you getting elected or acting suspicious. Just because you have made the most posts doesn't make you a winner.
With that being said, I am running for sheriff.
Why? Because I am not Shikyo.
So far this game, Shikyo has done nothing but post a lot and write a very charismatic ballot. He has run uncontested, and none of the other candidates are willing to step up against him. There has hardly been any debate between him and the other candidates. We cannot let him gain control of an office position so easily like this.
There are many suspicious activities going on with his office running. He labeled out the scenario how mafia get 6 votes, and he chooses to obstain his vote, thereby gaining his chance of him getting into office. It is necessary to point out how the mafia would probably not all vote for the same person, but in the scenario where one person is dominating they clearly would.
Shikyo has been obtaining votes from the most random of people. People who have not backed up their reasoning and people who have not voted at all. In one case, someone clearly stated that they were voting for one of the other candidates (although this was prior to Shikyo's running), but then voted for Shikyo without saying a word about it (and then latter ignored this fact when he finally did post).
Shikyo has seemed like a good candidate until I raised possible suspicion about him. I clearly was not accusing him of anything, I just wanted to hear what he had to say. Instead he retorted almost angerily at me, implying that my posts meant nothing since I have only posted a few times. It is only natural for me to want to make sure we as a town are electing the best people into office. Someone who goes on the defensive when asked why the situation does not add up is not the person we want in office.
However I do not possess any qualities that would make me good candidate other than I am not Shikyo. This would be my first mafia game on TL, and none of you have any information about me. But this is all irrelevant. You can cast your vote and put a suspicious person into office or put your vote to better use. Just because he posts a lot does not make him the best choice.
You can vote for Shikyo and secure the fact that there will be suspicious happenings, or you can vote for me to ensure the town a victory. Even if you don't want to vote for me, pick someone else besides Shikyo.
Angrily? You should see me angry, since I was completely calm. Tired? That's possible.
It had nothing to do with your little amount of posts. It has something to do with you being against lynching inactives, which by itself is generally bad play and a bad train of thought, especially early on when there isn't much to go by. Even if it might not be the most desirable play, being against it isn't something any townie should do. If there are no good targets, inactives should be the first to go. Actually, there's nothing wrong with the amount of posts you made, and I thought what I meant was apparent from my post. I guess not, but I hope I managed to clarify this. Defensive? What... You can always find suspicion anywhere you wish, so I guess I was defensive(which I wasn't), and that's suspicious to you.
But why have you, always, been so strongly against me? You keep talking about my flaws and suspicious behavior, but basically back that up with me being defensive without pinpointing it more accurately.
Now what I'm curious about is if you have ever thought of this scenario: You're a mafia who thinks I am a good mayor candidate, so you try to stop people from voting me and cast suspicion on me, in addition with advocating incorrect play like avoiding lynching mafia. Even though I don't exactly believe this right now, it all seems to make sense to me if that indeed is the case. As you can see, It's not that difficult to make anyone seem suspicious, if you want them to. If you think of this as being defensive, maybe that's the kind of a person I am, then.
I definitely would prefer people to post something as they vote and give some kind of a reasoning for their vote when they indeed do vote. However, there's really not much you can do about it besides openly asking them why they were voting for who they were.
On May 19 2009 10:42 JeeJee wrote: Also keep in mind, if a medic successfully protects X, this doesn't say anything about X's innocence. Sure, it's likely that X is a townie-aligned role that was hit by mafia, but it's also possible that it was a mafia hit by a vigi.
too much stuff
What a gigantic post...
Hmmm... if a vigi announces their hit in the thread and then hits a green or blue, nothing happens, no one sends them any roles, and they'll essentially be a normal townie, and thus not important for mafia to kill. If vigi hits a red, then he'd become the confirmed townie. There's just the problem of mafia killing him the same night, right after he kills the red... So maybe this plan needs some work. Maybe if he just announced he was going to hit someone that night, and if a red is hit, we should still know who that was. That way mafia doesn't know if he's worth lynching, and his vigi hit would still get through, assuming he sent it before announcing, and assuming that the earlier an action is sent, the more priority it gets. Also, vigis should be hitting only prime suspects, so I doubt that a medic would protect anyone they were supposed to hit. I'm still kind of unsure about this, though.
About multiple people claiming to have saved A, we don't necessarily have to kill all those people. I'm sure we could use some behavioral analysis or even clue analysis to narrow it down, and maybe have DTs check each of them rather than just killing everyone.
Now, with zeks joining the running for office as well, we finally have quite a few people running for office. I hope I'll be able to decide for someone to vote for today.
So, most people seem to want to lynch Therapy, and in the case I end up becoming mayor, I feel like he'd be the best person to lynch unless something comes up. JeeJee's last few posts have been good and he seems like a good player who'd do well as a mayor. However, the recent bandwagon voting for him has become a little bit worrying for me. It probably is nothing, though.
I'm not sure of when exactly the voting is going to end, but I'm guessing it's quite soon, and so I've decided to compose a medic list to help medics protect valuable members for the town. If you have some feedback about the list, want to add or remove someone, or think someone on the list is suspicious and likely to be red, please let me know.
In addition to merely being a help for the medics, the medic list actually indirectly protects everyone on it even if medics don't protect them, since mafia is unlikely to hit anyone on the list because of the risk of getting their hit blocked.
Many of the mayor/sheriff candidates are on the list because, interestingly enough, they've been contibuting quite a bit. If one of them becomes the mayor/sheriff, he will naturally be taken off the list. It's likely that one of them is a mafia, but since we don't have strong enough evidence against anyone, and can't exactly remove all of them off the list, the most important ones will remain there. Of course, I'm taking suggestions, and highly suspicious people will be taken off the list if the need arises.
I'd also like to point out that The_Master has been quite inactive as well. His first post was basically a "I will post for the sake of posting" post that added absolutely nothing and was most likely highly ignored. However, that seems slightly more sincere to me, and hence I'm not that suspicious him. It still is something to note, though. After that, he has only posted once, about changing his vote along with the bandwagon. What's interesting is how he thanked JeeJee about the role post, I wonder what I should think about that. Is he someone who would have benefitted of it, or a mafia acting like he was?
Before pointing fingers at too many people, I'm waiting eagerly for the day 2 clues. I'm sure the clue analysis will be far more fruitful with the ability to compare them to the day 1 clues. I haven't bothered analysing these day 1 clues at all, but I'm planning on analysing day 2 clues along with day 1 clues, and hopefully am able to figure something out.
On May 20 2009 09:52 iLoveKTF wrote: I disagree on putting JimTudor on the medic list. He is under suspicion atm.
I only agree on JeeJee, zeks, crate and teks.
I didn't feel like there was too much against him. Just basically people being suspicious of the voting patterns and him not having posted much recently, which I don't feel is all that strong. Still, I feel that he's been contributing more than much of the town has. If he becomes more suspicious, however, I am going to change the list appropriately if necessary.
I thought that more names would be better than less names for now, since the more people the list protects, generally the better. Especially since vigi hits can't be used during the first night, so even if someone on the list is a mafia, the damage isn't really all that significant. You don't agree with me being on the list? Ah, that breaks my heart.
Hey! I had feared he might have been green, but couldn't really think about anyone else to lynch and he wasn't being useful to the town anyway, so it's pretty okay, I guess.
Seems like everyone is agreeing with teks, zeks and crate being on the medic list. vx70GTOJudgexv should probably be on the list as well, the reason he had a ? was because he hadn't been that active recently. I'm kind of second-guessing Jimtudor, though. He seems to not have contributed anything much for the town recently, so I hope he'll do so soon. I'm not too convinced that he's mafia, though, although it definitely is possible.
Since a list of only 4-5 people would probably be too small, I'm also considering putting some people on the list like iLoveKTF, since he seems to know what he's talking about although he hasn't been the most active. It seems like the list is going to be quite small, since the next possible people on the list would be someone like EsbenPM, who have been relatively active but still nothing too spectacular. I wouldn't want the list to be as short as it is, but enough people really haven't been active enough, so I guess we'll compose the list mostly using these names, pretty much.
I think it's actually a good thing that I was elected the mayor over Sheriff. Mayor role seems to benefit mafia more than the sheriff, and I can at least be sure about about our mayor, being that I'm the mayor myself. The sheriff position would also be a lot more difficult to misuse for the mafia, since any suspicious incarcerations would be leered at and would be far easier to catch than mayor's votes.
It's nice that the town has been slightly more active recently. I have a feeling that most of the mafia is still hiding under the pile of the inactives, so everyone really should be more active. I guess that's that for now. Thank you for electing me as your mayor! Now I guess we'll just have to finish the medic list and plan some things out and whatnot while waiting for the day 2 clues.
I think we should vote for double lynch if we get at least one or hopefully 2 good matches with clues that would go along with relatively suspicious behavior. If we get absolutely nothing, though, we might have to save the double lynch for day 4, although that feels really late considering the size of the game.
My current version of the
Medic List:
zeks teks Jimtudor vx70GTOJudgexv crate
Besides those, it might be worth protecting some other people as well if you feel like the mafia is likely to hit them. We can protect a bit more freely tonight since vigilantes can't hit yet, use your own judgement. The people on that list are still a top priority.
As far as I know, medic protections will always go through even if they're sent in at the last minute? So there's still some time to consider.
Currently, I'm basically just waiting for day 2 to arrive, so I don't really have much more to add at this point.
iLoveKTF would be the very next person to be added on the list, so he might as well be added. 6 is a nice number, as well. Jimtudor's activity is becoming a concern, though. Still, he's an experienced player, and that's one of the reasons I have him on the list. iLoveKTF probably should be added to the list, but he still hasn't been exactly the most active person, posting mostly short posts repeating what others have said or clarifying some things said before him.
6 seems like a good number that's not too much or too little. JeeJee's last post about the medic list is important, I suggest every medic to read it through. However, too many mindgames aren't suggested, or else an extremely important townie might be left unprotected and die because of the medics attempting to be too smart.
I think removing Jimtudor from the medic list would be too soon for the first night's list, especially since vigis can't hit yet. If he doesn't start posting more actively, though, we might have to make some changes for the medic list for the next night.
All right, good morning. First, I'd like to address the issue with Jimtudor being on the medic list and the doubts and whatnot. I actually remember what happened when Qatol was the mayor and he managed to get Ace off the list because "he was suspicious", although he really wasn't doing anything suspicious and it was just some manipulation and speculation at best. So I didn't want to be hasty just because some people suspected him. And what do you know, I was right.
Only 2 people were lynched, one of which was a blue. However, the blue who was lynched still basically only had a townie's powers, just reducing our security, so this is close to an ideal outcome for us. I'm still curious of what Jimtudor would have posted next, since he kind of hinted that he might have something interesting to say.
Now, I'd like to say that Jimtudor is such an experienced player that roleclaiming bodyguard to either the Sheriff or the Mayor would not make any sense whatsoever. Roleclaiming bodyguard in general seems just pointless and stupid. People always suspect it, but I'm not sure if it has ever happened in any game thus far. I think it's more reasonable to assume that he was lynched without the knowledge of him being a bodyguard.
I think there are a couple of things we should examine. The first one is obvious; What happened to the third hit? There are a few possible scenarios: a medic protection, a veteran hit, and a stacked hit against either of the people who were lynched. In the case the hits were stacked, it'd be far more likely that they would stack hits against Jimtudor than softer. This is simply because softer is far less likely to be protected, and one hit should suffice.
If Jimtudor indeed got hits stacked against him, what would make the mafia so eager to kill him, being that he was already under suspicion by numerous people? One reason might that he could have found out something that he was going to post. Or maybe they thought that he'd be such an important player that he would be worth a couple of hits to take care of?
What I think is more likely is that a medic blocked a hit, or that they hit a veteran. So in the best case scenario, we have a basically confirmed townie and the the medic, possibly even contacted each other by now. Or a vet just took a hit, but that would be a good thing as well.
However, since Jimtudor was thought to be relatively suspicious, the mafia had no real reason to hit him yet, especially with stacked hits. This could mean that we're just against a stupid mafia, which would obviously be a good thing.
At least for now, I don't believe DTs should rolecheck zeks or roleclaim to him. The chance of him being the GF is high enough for the risk to not be worth it, at least for today, in my opinion.
I would like to present you with another suspect: motbob.
He basically only posted twice, asking for BWdero's profile picture and ran for Sheriff, and hasn't posted since. In his Sheriff post he promised high activity. Why isn't he being as active as he should be if he wasn't elected? Why did he abstain from voting?
That salesman clue indeed could refer to his quote "Join Teamliquid Whatpulse Team!", and I don't think it's as weak as you would think, because I don't see anything else in anyone else's profiles resembling anything like trying to get something sold. That's the only thing I could connect to him, though. He still seems suspicious, and might be worth considering for tomorrow.
Awww it's too bad that Koopie so adamantly believes I'm mafia. And the reason Jimtudor was on my list you can see in the day 2 post.
I have only been trying to post useful content. I'd have been posting a bit less if I didn't feel like I had to comment on something. I have been reading past posts and analyzing things quite a bit. I don't really like posting when I don't have complete information. I'll try to post something more interesting in the future. For now, I'm going to present my new and improved
Basically, I've added ydg because he has been useful to the town, primarily with his clue analysis. Otherwise, the once change was that Jimtudor was removed for obvious reasons.
Actually, most of the "clues" for Jayme seem to be quite weak. Especially the so much talked about "crepiscular" one; Why would the clue about a killer be in that sentence? It makes no sense. Furthermore, the clues are mostly picked from all over the posts. That doesn't make much sense either. People have been linking all kinds of movement, creeping and dark things to that cat, although they could mean so many different things, and it makes no sense to have so many clues pointing at one player. And the python being an ambushing animal seems quite far-fetched.
I'm not saying that Jayme is innocent. I'm just saying that maybe you shouldn't bandwagon for him so pointlessly, and maybe think about it for a while. The clues aren't as strong as they seem.
That being said, his behavior admittably has been relatively suspicious. Although I still have a bad feeling about all this bandwagoning.
Ok. With that vote, I would like to present another suspect: epicdoom. Reason is obvious, but if you want it, highly suspicious voting and he hasn't posted at all.
On May 22 2009 08:45 Shikyo wrote: Ok. With that vote, I would like to present another suspect: epicdoom. Reason is obvious, but if you want it, highly suspicious voting and he hasn't posted at all.
Possibly, or maybe he just voted for the heck of it, because no one's gonna follow him and lynch teks UNLESS he is a mafia and the other mafia vote for teks too, but that would be dumb, like saying "WE'RE MAFIA!"
so I don't know I'm confused
Most likely he's just a stupid mafia. There's no way a townie would act like that. And if one did, I'd want him dead regardless.
As you can see as you enter the site, there are many different, flashy colors. It almost hurts your eyes. That site is also definitely trying to get something sold, so the salesman would make sense.
Now, what might be the long metal bar the salesman is hitting his victim with? Oh, that's right. Britney Spears.
As you can see as you enter the site, there are many different, flashy colors. It almost hurts your eyes. That site is also definitely trying to get something sold, so the salesman would make sense.
Now, what might be the long metal bar the salesman is hitting his victim with? Oh, that's right. Britney Spears.
I think the spear is a bit of a stretch but... the rest is a really good analysis. I'll have more to come...
The spear indeed feels like a stretch. However, it would have been way too simple if it had simply stated that it is a spear, so I believe that's what it could be.
On May 22 2009 21:36 teks wrote: Great post Judge.
vx70GTOJudgexv wrote:
One thing that's confusing me about the people who are accusing Shikyo because jimtudor was on the medic list is they are only accusing Shikyo. You do realize jimtudor was on other people's medic lists (including my own), right? Yet the only one they accuse of any suspicion based on that is Shikyo.
Not only that, but putting Jimtudor on the medic list was a GOOD townie call, and mostly everyone agreed on it. How on earth is that suspicious?
1) Jimtudor was a bodyguard, so his spot on the list was correct 2) He was hit by the mafia
How would it benefit the mafia to put their own target on the medic list?
"But teks, don't you get it? If Jimtudor wasn't on the list, the medics would protect him because they think he's likely to get hit. He's high profiled, yet not on the list!"
Even if the list isn't "a list on who the medics should or should not protect, only a list of the people deemed important to the town" - this is a game with a lot of new players, chances are that the medics are new players as well. The safest call for the new medic players would be to protect someone on that list because they'd know the town would support that.
Mafia may want to have a mixed list maybe? Would mafia want to make the whole medic list full of mafia?
Why would mafia place someone they were planning on hitting on the medic list? I assume you think that the mysterious third hit indeed was a second hit for Jimtudor? In that case, why do you feel like they thought that Jimtudor was worth spending 2 hits on?
On May 22 2009 23:06 zeks wrote: Because jim was a good enough contributer that he can't simply be ignored to be part of the medic list. Use crate as an example. He's pretty much unanimously agreed upon to be part of the medic list. Mafia have no choice but to put him on their lists. Is he exempt from being hit justbecause he's on a stupid list? Hell no because it'd be more suspicious not to put him on a list when he's done so much. Medic list isn't an immunity list (like JeeJee said). In fact it might be a warning from the mafiathat even the medic list may not be as safe as we think.
Didn't you just say that it was suspicious for me to put him on the list? And then you're saying he was a good hit for the mafia, enough to warrant 2 hits? Wouldn't he then be a good pick for me to put on the list.
Also, weren't you just a while ago saying that the mafia using 2 hits on jimtudor was highly unlikely? What exactly changed that made you change your opinion?
On the one hand, double lynch tomorrow is the least risk of the town just getting overwhelmed by a mafia bandwagon (especially if Shikyo is red, which gives the mafia two extra votes). On the other hand ... not sure we'll have enough information to out two mafia by the end of Day 3. Waiting till day 4 doesn't doom the town even if we whiff today and Day 3 as long as we have a near-perfect record from there and as long as inactives don't doom us.
My first guess is that I'd rather wait but with the way this town jumped down Jayme's throat I'm certainly not positive that's the right choice. If the mafia get just a couple innocents to start a bandwagon then those players don't check back....
I think today is a lost cause, assuming Jayme turns green. If he turns red, I'd be extremely surprised. However, I definitely think it's possible to get 2 mafia on both days, especially if we get some more clues on day 3.
At this point I'd like to ask, what exactly makes you think that I'm mafia? So many people are suspecting me as mafia but don't really give me any reasons. Putting Jimtudor on the medic list? I'm not sure what to say about that. Not contributing? I don't know which thread you are reading. My profile is empty, so all the clues should be about my name.
Japanese English shikyo death
Maybe you, Koopie, Foolisness and whoever else should now spend a while trying to think of clues pointing to me. You know, it really shouldn't be that hard, since a person dies every time a mafia lynches someone, right? I'm looking forward to reading your suggestions.
Actually, wasn't Koopie really confident that I was mafia, for no reason once again? I actually PMed her, asking why she thought that. And what do you know, she hasn't been around since. That's suspicious if anything. Koopie, why haven't you answered? Don't you know it's rude?
In that MSN conversation, she also wanted iLoveKTF on the medic list, saying that he had contributed a lot; more than Jimtudor, for instance. She seemed to be quite mad at me for putting Jimtudor on the medic list. And then Jimtudor gets hit the following night? It's possible that she's just a stupid townie, but she really hasn't even been TRYING to help the town, at all. Accuse -> disappear -> accuse -> disappear. I'd like you to at least respond to my PM.
As we could see in the msn logs, as well as the thread itself, she was for whatever reason strongly defending iLoveKTF and wanted him on the medic list. Why might that be? iLoveKTF really hasn't contributed to the town AT ALL. Most of his posts just appear to contain something, but are in fact essentially empty.
So, let's talk about iLoveKTF for a while, shall we? Warning: this is going to be LONG. I've decided to spoiler it in order for the post to not take up 5 screens. But don't you dare to argue with me without having read it all. + Show Spoiler +
"I have decided on this before I have received my role. I will be running for office, either one will do, but I prefer to be Mayor."
Says he decided on this before receiving his role as an attempt to gain trust. He prefers to be Mayor. Note: In crate's analysis, he came to the conclusion(as did I) that Mayor is more important to MAFIA, Sheriff more important to TOWN. Well, it's not like it's strange for a townie to especially ask for mayor(although I can't think of a reason), is it? So maybe he still has good intentions, let's be positive. The rest of his office consisted of him saying that he played well as a medic in the last game; Nothing about what he'll do this game.
After this, he spends a couple of posts adding nothing. Just random commenting about rules and about the day 1 post's style. Note: No attempt at clue analysis. After a little bit of spam, he just is quiet for a while. After this, he tells me he wants the first lynch more than the Sheriff skills. Why might that be? Well, incarcenation is extremely suspicious for mafia to do. If they incarcenate for no reason, they'll be in the meat grinder next. And why would he think that the first lynch is so important, since the town will most likely decide on someone themselves, anyway? Well, he basically tells us to vote for him again. Ok.
Now, let's pick out the interesting, suspicious posts that come by next. Oh, he makes a post, where he says that the medic list is the first priority after elections. Sounds reasonable. However, a few posts after that, he makes a fascinating post. Let me quote an interesting part of it.
On May 19 2009 10:57 iLoveKTF wrote:I suggest we scratch the medic list and trust on our medic's decision on who he/she will protect for night 1. Medics, we trust in you...
Wait, so he suggests us to not have a medic list after all, right after proposing one himself? Especially in a game meant for beginners, when it's likely that they aren't able to properly decide who to protect, and might require some easy reference? And he HAS played before, even well according to himself. So he isn't stupid. His sentence about trusting the medics makes sense, though. If by "we" he means Mafia, that is.
Next, I present my medic list, on page 12. It includes Jimtudor and doesn't have iLoveKTF in it. What does iLoveKTF first say about it? First of all, he doesn't mention at all that 5 pages ago he thought that we don't need a medic list. Then, he thinks that Jimtudor shouldn't be on it because he's under suspicion. Under suspicion? Well, people had been discussing if they should rolecheck the people who lose the run for office and Jimtudor was brought up. Note again how iLoveKTF isn't explaining the suspicion at all, just tells him to read the last few pages. He himself has STILL added ABSOLUTELY NOTHING to the game. Repeating others at best.
On May 20 2009 12:59 iLoveKTF wrote: Things to do right now:
1. Finalize the medic list. 2. Medics do your jobs. (I hope those 2 inactives who havent voted arent medics) 3. Wait for day and see who dies and let the finger pointing begin.
Now, he's just giving orders (that are common sense), not adding anything. Once again.
Ah, now Koopie tells me how iLoveKTF is going to be useful for the town, on page 16. Well that's nice, since until now, he has done absolutely nothing.
But that's all been relatively minor. Now, let's examine this post:
On May 21 2009 12:42 iLoveKTF wrote: Oh man. I was expecting jimtudor to be red. He really seemed suspicious because he voted for Shikyo, though it didnt matter cause jeejee wouldve won either way, because Jeejee was suspecting him too. Yeah I, along with those who suspected jimtudor, look like mafia right now. But I think the mafia's plan was to kill jimtudor so that the attention will be pointed towards us and not them. I just hope jimtudor didnt role claim to the elected officials cause if he did, we are semi-fucked. And if he did roleclaim, I hope the other BG didnt. Also, If jimtudor roleclaimed then we would know 1 of Jeejee and Shikyo is red.
Right now, I am very suspicious of Shikyo. My theory is that he would put jimtudor in his medic list so that he wont look suspicious if jimtudor died. And if at any case a medic protected jimtudor, the mafia decided to stack 2 hits on him. Ofcourse this wouldnt be true if a medic had a hit blocked last night.
Damn I really thought Jimtudor was red. Sorry man, RIP. :p
Okay, does this make sense to anyone? Why was he really suspicious because he voted for me? Especially since, as he said, it didn't matter. And iLoveKTF really NEVER, EVER said what he exactly thought was suspicious, even before. He just said that he's under suspicion. And then a gigantic apology post, although he did nothing? Who would feel that they need to write a huge post like this in that kind of a situation, where some others had started suspecting him as well(for no reason, may I add)?
Oh, but the fun in this post doesn't end there! The mafia's plan was to kill Jimtudor so that the attention would be pointed towards "us" and not "them"? What the hell? Who would come to that conclusion? That would be such a stupid plan. It's a stupid thing to even lynch a suspected person, as I think I've stated before. Why would the town suddenly think that if someone who people thought was mafia was killed... the people who thought he was mafia would be mafia themselves? It makes no sense. They wouldn't kill him off. They would keep casting suspicion and try to get him lynched. His train of thought makes NO sense. It's sad I already established that he's not stupid, since I'm starting to believe that he actually is pretty damn stupid. Unless, of course, he's a mafia trying to think of something that might fool someone.
Hey, but we're not done with this post yet! At the end, he suspects that I would put Jimtudor on my medic list so that I wouldn't look suspicious if he died. Ummm what? Hey, iLoveKTF, maybe you didn't know, but medics are actually supposed to protect people on that list. But you seem to have a foolproof plan ready! Let's stack 2 hits on Jimtudor! First of all, those hits are valuable for Mafia. if I was planning on getting him killed that night, I could have easily went with the suspicion and took him off the list. Second, very suspicious of me? It's not like other lists didn't have his name there. And then a ridiculous plan that someone needs to explain to me for it to make any sense. Wow. -_-
He's for lynching Jayme, too. I might have to think about this again in the case Jayme is red. But I'm almost sure he'll be green, or even blue(unlikely because of how inactive he is).
He's acting like he's adding something to the discussion by bringing up double lynch. Again, this was inevitable and was probably mentioned before. Posts that appear to have content but in fact do not.
Let's examine these 2 posts, now.
On May 21 2009 14:21 iLoveKTF wrote: Yeah Im voting to lynch Jayme unless something better comes up. Also, we need to discuss if we are gonna use double lynch for day 3 or not. Imo, yes. Using it after Day3 is wasting too much time. We need as much kills as possible (of course through thorough clue analysis).
On May 21 2009 14:23 iLoveKTF wrote: edit: by "We need as much kills as possible" I mean "We need as many dead mafia as possible".
Everyone, think to yourself. Would a townie feel the need to correct something like that? Wasn't it obvious what he meant? To me, the correction looked really unnecessary. But maybe he thought he'd come out wrong. Although, why would a townie need to worry about that?
On May 22 2009 12:29 iLoveKTF wrote: Voted in favor of Double lynch coz fingers have been pointed to alot of people. We'd have many suspects next day.
Abstained from lynching coz I know Jayme is surely gonna get lynched. Currently analyzing some posts/accusations while waiting for Night post.
Or so that you wouldn't be connected to voting for him if he turns green? If Jayme's red, it'd be amazing. I just doubt it. Oh, before that post iLoveKTF was talking about his profile thread. Basically another set of empty posts with no content.
Based on that, I strongly believe that iLoveKTF is mafia. Clues aren't my speciality, but I think some possible ones have already been suggested
"I think today is a lost cause, assuming Jayme turns green. If he turns red, I'd be extremely surprised." Was it the second time I was right? I told people to hold off from voting while I analyzed. I don't think it was possible to save the day, because everyone just bandwagoned. Something I think I adviced against. Now, let us look at the people on the list of suspects, who were actively proposing the lynching of Jayme. I wonder if they'll match(I'm confident they do).
On May 23 2009 14:38 chaoser wrote: guys, come on...really? I really have two problems with this town. 1)Elected Officials, DO SOMETHING. YOU ARE PROTECTED UNLESS BODYGUARDS DIE. That means you have way more freedom than anyone else. mafia can't target you so take more risks. really? clue analysis? we need a town web set up asap!
2) DTs, medics, mouths, get in touch with THE ELECTED, i'm not saying role claim, i mean say you're the mouth or that you have info or something. It's better than us sitting around not doing anything!
Something more than having pointed out about 5 mafia suspects and the reasoning behind everything? What have you done?
On May 23 2009 13:33 iLoveKTF wrote: @ Shikyo's accusations: I'll address it later. Im watch SKT vs KTF atm.
@ Jayme's death. Why are you guys so mad/upset about him flipping green. Its not like you suggested anyone else.
Hey, guess what. That ended already. Maybe we've upset because he's green? And it's not like YOU suggested anyone else. WTF.
Right, so read recent posts before hitting post. Oh well, another post after reading what iLoveKTF said:
I'm suspecting you're Mafia for playing stupidly and not contrubuting anything. The reasoning behind you being suspicious of Jimtudor was stupid. You never really explained anything, etc. Yes, I'm suspecting you're Mafia because of clarifying yourself. There was absolutely no need for any clarification, just might seem so if you're mafia.
As you might have noticed, you still haven't contributed anything? Me talking about those random clues was just an example of you contributing nothing.
And you didn't address the terrible argument about Jimtudor being on the list making me suspicious, and why you thought that the mafia could possibly have some plan like that. So you basically evaded anything important.
I think I will consider voting for iLoveKTF. That's what you wanted to hear, isn't it?
On May 23 2009 16:58 crate wrote: shikyo hi5 that's enough "stupid" in one post to make me proud
My pleasure =)
iLoveKTF, you know even better than me that it wouldn't make me red.
I propose that in this game, you can only be modkilled by being inactive.
Also, your rephrase was unnecessary assuming you've been reading the other thread.
So, assuming you're innocent, why have you played as if you didn't know how to, even though you have so much experience? -.-;; You know that after being modkilled, you're banned from the next game?
On May 23 2009 17:30 Qatol wrote: Getting modkilled in this game has far worse consequences than in my game. Please consider that. Pyrrhuloxia and I and probably a few others will discuss exactly what they are the next time I see him, but they will involve at LEAST a 2 game ban.
EDIT: Ok after a quick discussion, modkill requests that are only due to game-related reasons will not be honored (though obviously we cannot force you to vote). If you have a legitimate out of game reason to get yourself modkilled, take it up with the host privately. If you try and troll the thread to force a modkill, we will let the TL staff deal with you as they see fit.
Thanks, Qatol. It's ridiculous how people can say that they'll modkill themselves, then don't have to do it. And then the other people don't dare to do anything because of the threat of losing an innocent for no reason.
On May 23 2009 19:57 iLoveKTF wrote: What? Ok so I might be a little misunderstood. First thing I said was thinking of getting modkilled because I cant be around for the next 2 days, but I changed my mind. And when I said "mafia kill me now or lynch me tomorrow", i didnt mean i am requesting them to do so. I was challenging them to do so. Sorry for all the confusion.
Anyway this will be my last post for the next 2 days. Cya by then.
Just so you know, you have like 64 more hours until you have to vote for the first time. You have to miss voting twice to be modkilled. It's convenient, though. You don't have to defend yourself since you won't be around.
On May 23 2009 19:18 teks wrote: Ok, it's finger pointing time. I've been working on a case for a while now, I didn't want to say anything until I had gathered more information, so please bear with me as I bring up old quotes and old arguments to try to form a behavior pattern of the suspect.
I accuse zeks of being the Godfather. I think that he is the person who is organizing the mafia kills, which would also make sense seeing how he is one of the most active persons in the thread. I'm going to divide this post into three parts, in order not to flood the entire page. I'm going to focus on behavior, because the voting patterns up till now are too weak to rely on, and there doesn't seem to be any blatantly obvious clues pointing to zeks (which would explain why he is taking risks). If needed be, I can bring these two points in to strengthen my case later on, as I do think there is SOME material to work with in those two departments as well.
WARNING! This post is going to be lengthy, but know that I worked alot on this, so I ask that you atleast skim through it to see if I'm onto something here. It COULD be vital for the town's gameplan.
The first piece of information I want to convey is two PM's I received from zeks before the night to day 2. These are unedited, except that I added a (nick) in front of each PM so it's easier to see who's saying what. This should, like any PM history, be read from the bottom to the top.
(teks) I don't TRUST anyone to be honest. Not even you But I'm pretty positive that Shikyo isn't mafia. And JeeJee has had me convinced. Jury is still out on Jimtudor I guess - I don't trust him yet.
----------------------------------------- (zeks) Original Message: do you trust all 3 of - Shikyo, JimTudor and JeeJee?
----------------------------------------- (teks) Original Message: atm I'm suspecting Foolishness, Phelix and softer. Mostly based on laying low and votes though, it's hard to judge them with the low activity level we are having at the moment.. I really hope we manage to draw people out.
----------------------------------------- (zeks) Original Message: who are you suspecting behaviour wise?
At first, I was kind of wondering why he was asking me this all of a sudden, we hadn't talked any at all in PM's prior to this. But I had nothing to hide, I layed out who I suspected, he got the information, and I never heard from him again. What do I make of this? zeks thinks I'm a possible medic. He was asking around (it would be entirely possible that more of you received the same kind of PM's) to find out who the medics were least likely to be protecting.
So in my case, I was suspicious of Foolishness, Phelix, softer and Jimtudor. Then what happens? Oh yeah, softer and Jimtudor dies. Yes, my suspicions were WAY off, but that's not the case here. If I was going to go on a stretch and assume that I was the only one he talked to, I would think that either Foolishness or Phelix got hit too that night, but it was either blocked by one of them being a veteran, or a medic. I'm thinking the first. Or maybe they just chose someone else randomly in order to not bring up too much suspicion, or they stacked hit's on one of the targets (Jimtudor?).
Either way, two of my suspects died that night. I'm going to go over his posts now to point out any inconsistencies, irregularities or possible mafia behavior.
On May 19 2009 14:20 zeks wrote: I don't agree with lynching an inactive the first day. Since this is a newbie friendly game, those with blue roles might be more inclined to stay lurking since they know they have an important role and don't want to die so early.
Oh what do you know, he's against lynching an inactive. What a surprise. What I have been seeing with new players is that his scenario doesn't fit at all. The inactive ones are, as I see it, usually townies who are disappointed in not getting a role, and feeling that they don't have anything to do, so they get bored with it. The new players who end up with a blue role tend to be more eager and active because they feel that they mean something.
On May 19 2009 14:20 zeks wrote: I remember when I was a medic (many times) all I thought about was staying alive so I can at least be able to contribute with protections each night - thus I stayed quiet and only communicated through PMs.
I probably should have gone over his behavior in previous games before making this post, but I haven't. I'm sorry. If anyone wants to do that go right ahead. Either way, that sure isn't how he's playing now. I'm assuming this means that he has changed attitude, and no longer feels that this is the best way to play a blue role, if that is the case I would think that he, as a useful town aligned person, would encourage the new blue players to stand up for themselves, not just explaining why they would be inactive. The other possibility is of course, that he isn't a blue.
Then, in his first post, he also made his statement that he would be running for mayor. His plans are not anything spectacular, but there are tidbits that can be discussed here, for instance the fact that he is opposing the vigi plan to get a confirmed townie:
On May 19 2009 14:20 zeks wrote: I think Crate brought up a great point about the trouble of getting a confirmed towny. The vigi plan has some flaws though. The vigi can't roleclaim and announce his hit to the whole town because a mafia could just do the same. I noticed in the day post that the mafia don't have names. So we wouldn't really know if a new vigi has come out and performed his announced hit.
So he is basically disregarding the whole idea because the mafia doesn't have names (why would they have names? Have they ever had names in any previous games?). He is completely disregarding the fact that if a red player was hit, only a vigi could be behind it, and that vigi should have no problems with both pointing out the clues leading to himself, and get the support of the people he reached out to prior to his hit. What I make of this is that he is against getting a confirmed townie through this method, instead of pointing out the flaws and suggesting another way of doing it, he just denies the whole idea.
Next, he is opposed to getting a confirmed townie through medic protection, too. He states the following:
On May 19 2009 14:20 zeks wrote: Nowhere does it say that the medic will know the role of the person he has saved. I agree that it is more likely for a medic to save a mafia hit than a vigi hit, but as a medic in previous games myself, it's pretty hard to judge who is going to get hit every night (that or I was a horrible medic lol). Also, in the less likely case of saving a mafia from a vigi - the medic may mistrust the saved mafia for a good guy.
It's true that if a medic protected a mafia from a vigi hit, there would be no way to know if that target was mafia or not. But he is completely disregarding the fact that vigis can't hit on night 1. He, as an experienced player, should know this. He is also going on about how hard it is to block a hit, blabla, we all know that. Obviously this plan wasn't meant to be a "hey let's just block a mafia hit, then we have our confirmed townie!" but rather IF a medic blocked a mafia hit ON THE FIRST NIGHT, that medic would be safe to talk to the townie in question.
So zeks goes on to form his confirmed townie plan based on the supposed flaws of the medic and vigi plans:
On May 19 2009 14:20 zeks wrote: In the case that we do not get a successful block, then we should move on to another plan that I am suggesting: plan C.
c) Detective role-check Depending on how far we get with the medic plan, we might have to consider the ultimatum which is to have a DT rolecheck someone - which would be the safest way, unless you manage to unluckily land on the godfather; then theres no way back. The chance of landing on the godfather is slim though, so I deem this the safest plan and most viable after using trying the medic plan.
What a surprise! He wants a DT to rolecheck "someone" and then roleclaim "safely" to that person. Now, who could this trustable person be.. Hmm.. Maybe he should just nominate himself, since he was the one coming with the idea, that won't be suspicious at all, right? We'll get back to this later, since this is a story that continues later in the thread. What is interesting is that he mentions this in his very first post in the thread. Clearly focusing on what he thinks is the best idea, since the chance of landing on the godfather is slim.
That makes the end of his election speech. The rest of it was the same things the other candidates promised, let's kill all red and use double lynches blabla.
So the thread goes on, and zeks encourages people to read his election speech. He also helps the town by making an inactive list, but this is something literally anyone can do, so I'm getting the feeling that he did this to show the town that he can contribute, and to warrant voting on him. If he was the mafia candidate, why did he not get elected, or why did he not get close? I think that the mafia either waited to see if he could draw any votes (which he tried desperately by several times asking people to read his platform), or they threw him a few votes to try to start a bandwagon. Neither of the cases worked out for them, so they basically abandoned ship when it failed, that's why you didn't see him getting 6 mafia votes.
I still believe that one of the election candidates were mafia, and since Jimtudor turned blue, and I so far have no reason to suspect Shikyo or JeeJee, this all adds up.
On May 20 2009 02:49 zeks wrote: To be safe I suggest we try to find clues that may point to the inactives so we can have a better shot at hitting a red. I am also supportive if we were to lynch Jayme based on clues.
Captain Obvious to the rescue! Again he is "contributing" to the town by stating something we all know already. Of course we should go on clues in addition to lynching an inactive. The fact that he wanted to lynch Jayme also corresponds with the Godfather view, since he turned out to be a townie.
After that, he makes his first (in my opinion) real contribution to the town, by cooking up some clues pointing to therapy. My theory is that he saw the Jayme case as sure-fire enough that he would be lynched on day 2, because he already had so many clues attached to him, that he decided to bring in someone new. This is not any evidence by itself, but therapy being a townie also adds up to the equation.
Then, the medic list are being formed. zeks is placed on all of them, despite not really contributing to the town apart from running for mayor and forming a clue pattern to therapy. Good job! You had me fooled as well. I guess if there is anyone who should be accused of posting loads of fluff it should be you, not Shikyo.
On May 21 2009 03:14 zeks wrote: I just hope that the medics are listening right now and hopefully they won't deviate from the plan.
Of course you would hope that, you wouldn't want the medics to protect your targets, after all.
On May 21 2009 13:43 zeks wrote: We only had two deaths tonight, softer and Jimtudor. Obviously there are only two possible scenarios:
a) Stacked hits on either softer or Jim. b) Someone got saved. - I think this is more likely, and in this case, I believe someone on the medic list got saved tonight.
No. Obviously, you are lying. As an experienced player, you knew about the possibility that a veteran got hit, and that it would be more likely than stacking hits on softer or Jim, who basically hadn't contributed at all. If anyone were to be stacked it would have been someone like softer or Judge, or even you.
Luckily, crate calls him on it instantly, so no harm done.
Dun dun dun! This brings us to my punchline. The continuation of his DT rolecheck plan.
On May 21 2009 23:52 zeks wrote: I think the vigi plan has just too many flaws. The medic plan is viable and I really believe that someone got saved last night versus a vet taking a hit. Now, how far the town web has grown I don't know.
But if things get desperate and still nothing gets done, then we should go with the DT rolecheck. I think this is probably the safest plan but obviously has a great drawback of losing one rolecheck. I am willing to step up for examination, that is, you'd have to believe in me not being Godfather.
And so far there have been no clues against me afaik, but of course I'm not free from suspicion one bit. Should we try this? Up to you two DT's to decide. (Of course, if this does happen I hope only one of you rolechecks me)
Basically this is a repeat of his plan in the election platform. He is probably correct that there are no clues pointing to him, but the mere idea of suggesting himself for this idea makes this that more suspicious. If he were to suggest the idea, then let's say, have the town vote on who they wanted to act as the mouthpiece, maybe it wouldn't be so blatantly obvious what is going on here. zeks has that much belief in the town not thinking he is the godfather that he is nice enough to step up! Aww, doesn't that get your eyes wet. So nice of him!
Once again, he fooled me, but thankfully there were other more experienced players who quickly figured out the risks of his plan. chaoser, Judge, Shikyo, props to you!
This is going to be the end of my behavior analysis. I could go on by talking about his consistent denial of the vigi plan, which at the moment is one of the best plans we got, but this post is lengthy enough as is.
So that's it. By sharing my case with you, I ask that zeks is removed from the medic list while we decide whether or not my case is strong enough. Hopefully we can come to an agreement before the night is over, and if needed be, he can be placed back on the list.
I am basically laying my spot in this game on the table here, if zeks turns out innocent I take full responsibility and will let you lynch me if you see it fit. But do know that I wouldn't accuse an active and experienced player without gathering what I see as plenty of proof. This is all up to you, town, what do you think of my case?
First of all, being wrong about someone doesn't instantly make you mafia. It's the reasoning behind the accusation that matters. If the reasoning makes sense and you're not behaving suspiciously otherwise, I don't think it'd mean that you're mafia. See L vs Ace and Ver in Mafia VIII. Although L was wrong, his reasoning made sense(even if he was maybe too aggressive), even if he came to the wrong conclusion.
I would like to note that zeks only did a tiny bit of clue analysis, for Therapy. In fact, he was the first person to suggest him being lynched. On the second day, zeks said that it'd also be a good thing to lynch Jayme because of the clues etc. I find it slightly suspicious that he never clue analysed thoroughly, only for those people, who in fact turned out to be innocent. And as already mentioned, he hasn't done anything useful, either. I'd also like to point out how late his first post was.
I had a fascinating PM conversation with zeks before. It's read from bottom to top. I edited the names in.
Shikyo: I see. ----------------------------------------- zeks: Do you really need to me to write it all out for you?
Any person to come out with that plan is bound to be aware of the GF scenario. How naive would it be for a GF to stick his head onto a guillotine with a brand new plan, deviating from everything else the town has agreed upon (vigi/medic plans).
And all for what? 1 DT? Look at the town: everyone is pointing fingers at each other and nothing is getting done. People aren't going to start roleclaiming to each other even if I manage to successfully initiate and actually hit a red, because all of you are so suspicious of EVERY LITTLE THING you'd probably think I sacrificed a red to get the trust of the whole town.
Names are flying everywhere. Someone is orchestrating this. I think you and I both have a general idea of who it probably is.
----------------------------------------- Shikyo: What? I said "and?"
----------------------------------------- zeks: If you think so then pitch your case to the town to take me off the medic list.
----------------------------------------- Shikyo: I know that. And?
----------------------------------------- zeks: Because I mentioned the possibility of myself being the GF before all of you did.
----------------------------------------- Shikyo: Why is that?
----------------------------------------- zeks: The dt-rolecheck plan? Maybe you should be reading my posts.
----------------------------------------- Shikyo: Read the thread.
----------------------------------------- zeks: Why is that?
----------------------------------------- Shikyo: I think you are the Godfather.
Maybe he thought that the dt-rolecheck plan was the only reason I thought that? It's weird how he addressed only that, and thinks that it removes my suspicions if he says that he might be the GF, but we just have to trust him that he isn't.
After a while I noticed something I didn't notice the first time. For only one DT? Hey, did you yourself forget that your plan was to make you the confirmed townie and get all the information about everything? Where did "only one DT" come from?
I also love how he's basically evading the accusations. Pretty sneaky!
"Everyone is pointing fingers at each other and nothing is getting done." Is that really so? Well, let's assume that's true.. So naturally you will try to help the town fix that, right? Let's take a look at the time I sent the last PM, "I see.".
zeks Re: Mafia 5/22 09:04
All right, now we have a time. I wonder what zeks has posted after that. He would obviously have tried to fix the fingerpointing, right?
Now a little bit of chit-chatting, contributing nothing, then he stops posting for a while.
Then, comes the only set of posts he has posted afterwards.
On May 22 2009 21:36 teks wrote: Great post Judge.
vx70GTOJudgexv wrote:
One thing that's confusing me about the people who are accusing Shikyo because jimtudor was on the medic list is they are only accusing Shikyo. You do realize jimtudor was on other people's medic lists (including my own), right? Yet the only one they accuse of any suspicion based on that is Shikyo.
Not only that, but putting Jimtudor on the medic list was a GOOD townie call, and mostly everyone agreed on it. How on earth is that suspicious?
1) Jimtudor was a bodyguard, so his spot on the list was correct 2) He was hit by the mafia
How would it benefit the mafia to put their own target on the medic list?
"But teks, don't you get it? If Jimtudor wasn't on the list, the medics would protect him because they think he's likely to get hit. He's high profiled, yet not on the list!"
Even if the list isn't "a list on who the medics should or should not protect, only a list of the people deemed important to the town" - this is a game with a lot of new players, chances are that the medics are new players as well. The safest call for the new medic players would be to protect someone on that list because they'd know the town would support that.
Mafia may want to have a mixed list maybe? Would mafia want to make the whole medic list full of mafia?
Now, what exactly is this? I would put Jimtudor, my next target, on the list because "mafia might want to have a mixed list maybe"? This doesn't even make any sense! Someone, please explain this reasoning to me.
So is he saying that the other names on my list, that is almost identical to others', would be mafia? And I put Jimtudor(my next target) on the list, because I wanted a mixed list? And even if he says otherwise, this post indeed DOES implicate me being mafia, giving a reason(a horrible one at that) for me to put Jimtudor on the list even if I was mafia.
I assume this isn't "pointing fingers", right? Since he was so strongly against it.
Next we have a peaceful conversation, after which he goes somewhere, never to be seen. I'd like to comment on his posts again with a little bit of more detail.
On May 22 2009 23:06 zeks wrote: Because jim was a good enough contributer that he can't simply be ignored to be part of the medic list. Use crate as an example. He's pretty much unanimously agreed upon to be part of the medic list. Mafia have no choice but to put him on their lists. Is he exempt from being hit justbecause he's on a stupid list? Hell no because it'd be more suspicious not to put him on a list when he's done so much. Medic list isn't an immunity list (like JeeJee said). In fact it might be a warning from the mafiathat even the medic list may not be as safe as we think.
So let's see. Jimtudor couldn't have been ignored and he needed to be a part of the mediclist? If you remember, people indeed were really suspicious about him and I could have EASILY just said that he was too suspicious. Man, didn't I say this somewhere before? What do you mean no choice?
So wait a second! You say that I had no choice but to put Jimtudor on my list. But just a second ago you were implying that it was suspicious for me to have put him on the list? That I might want to have a mixed list? Does this make any sense to anyone else?
On May 22 2009 23:55 zeks wrote: I never said Jim was a good hit enough to warrant 2 hits - you can try to quote me on it.
I never said it was suspicious for you to put him on the list - you can try to quote me on that too. All I am saying is that the option of a mafia putting Jim on his/her medic list is totally probable.
I never directed anything at you, so I don't know why you're getting so defensive. Read my posts as they are.
This is the last thing he has posted. You can try to quote... okay. So you say that it's a possible reason for me to put him on my list even if I was a mafia, although he was basically defending my decision the whole time. This means that you disagreed with him, doesn't it? Sigh.
So where was the lack of fingerpointing? ^_^ If you really are a townie, why haven't you been contributing anything at all, besides being suspicious about the 2 people we lynched... who were innocent?
I wonder when you start doing something useful for the town.
Without warning, his windshield shattered and a wave of glass ripped through LTT's face. Passing out from blood loss, LTT's head slumped, sounding a horn that would not be heard in time.
With no previous warning (meaning LTT likely didn't see anything), his windshield shattered in, with considerable force (to have ripped into his face like that). I'm honestly on the fence about this clue pointing towards Zeks. It's so very obvious that this could have been caused by a blast of compressed air, and that's why I'm on the fence. Day 1 clues are supposed to be hard, nearly impossible to solve, but this was so easy. The only reason I could see Pyrry using a clue this easy (if it does in fact point to Zeks), is that it's a noobie game, and not very much was expected of us.
So take it as you will, with a grain of salt. I was merely linking a possible clue with someone suspected because their behavior is pretty far off.
Know what? This is actually the exact same clue I considered. It indeed does seem pretty easy, but you forgot to mention something about it.
"sounding a horn that would not be heard in time."
You can google about it some more if you don't trust that source.
So, why would the sound not be heard in time? Well, assuming the air compressor, the wind it creates is really strong, since it could shatter the glass. Isn't it only reasonable to believe that it would be able to half the traveling of the sound almost completely?
I'm not a master of physics, so I still can't be sure about that. It seems to make sense, though, and it fits.
On May 23 2009 21:56 So no fek wrote: That's a good point, and one that I honestly hadn't even thought of.
I doubt he would mention the "wouldn't be heard in time" or whatever if it didn't mean anything. It might just be a red herring, or whatever they say, but since it fits with the same clue...
Also, I now would like to say that zeks isn't at least on my medic list anymore. If he indeed is mafia, the reason for his removal is self-explanatory.
Even if he by some miracle is green or blue, his play has made no sense, and he hasn't been contributing to the town in any way. He doesn't deserve the medic protection and shouldn't hog our medics from some actually useful players who might need the protection more. The same thing goes for iLoveKTF, by the way.
Hey, zeks. What do you mean by "utter chaos" and all the massive finger pointing? Since the town doesn't seem chaotic at all, and we have to suspect people to get going. You talk about solid evidence, but do you realize this yourself:
We don't have the time to wait for solid evidence. We don't have the time to just sit around just CLUE ANALYSING. Hey, when was the last time a town won a game based on clue analysis alone? It really is unaccurate and it's extremely easy for mafia to point out potential clues for non-mafias. It's fascinating how you're so experienced but don't realize that we indeed have to analyse the behavior, as it is the best method of catching mafia until something like day 4. Actually, I think it's the best method period.
It's cool if you don't mind being off the medic list. Maybe I'll just make it clear that I don't want medics to protect you. Is that better?
It seems like in your argument with teks, you do your best to correct unimportant things that really don't matter in the long run, like him using a too powerful tone or whatever, but you really just asked stupid rhetorical questions and actually failed to prove anything. But hey, I can't fault you for that, either. It definitely is something I would do if I was mafia. I'd point out the unimportant flaws of my opponent's arguments. It's a good way to sway the attention away from, say, you being the Godfather.
That being said, let's see what you'll post about me, now. I think chopping those quotes is way too troublesome so I'll just quote all of it at once.
On May 23 2009 23:26 zeks wrote: Now that I've dealt with teks, let's deal with Shikyo's argument deconstruction.
I would like to note that zeks only did a tiny bit of clue analysis, for Therapy. In fact, he was the first person to suggest him being lynched. On the second day, zeks said that it'd also be a good thing to lynch Jayme because of the clues etc. I find it slightly suspicious that he never clue analysed thoroughly, only for those people, who in fact turned out to be innocent. And as already mentioned, he hasn't done anything useful, either. I'd also like to point out how late his first post was.
Why were you so quick on lynching therapy? Oh, as I recall, you were the one who dropped the axe on him? No one even slightly challenged my case to lynch therapy. I was hoping for other options to be out there, but no one said anything.
This by all means doesn't mean I'm not taking responsibility for his death.
After a while I noticed something I didn't notice the first time. For only one DT? Hey, did you yourself forget that your plan was to make you the confirmed townie and get all the information about everything? Where did "only one DT" come from?
If the DT rolechecked me I'd only initially be communicating to that one DT.
"Everyone is pointing fingers at each other and nothing is getting done." Is that really so? Well, let's assume that's true.. So naturally you will try to help the town fix that, right? Let's take a look at the time I sent the last PM, "I see.".
I agree with you that I haven't been the biggest help lately. But I assure you, and everyone else that it will all change by tonight or tomorrow morning.
Now, what exactly is this? I would put Jimtudor, my next target, on the list because "mafia might want to have a mixed list maybe"? This doesn't even make any sense! Someone, please explain this reasoning to me.
So is he saying that the other names on my list, that is almost identical to others', would be mafia? And I put Jimtudor(my next target) on the list, because I wanted a mixed list? And even if he says otherwise, this post indeed DOES implicate me being mafia, giving a reason(a horrible one at that) for me to put Jimtudor on the list even if I was mafia.
When have I ever pointed a finger at you? When have I even mentioned your name in an analysis? What part of
Mafia may want to have a mixed list maybe? Would mafia want to make the whole medic list full of mafia?
is directed at you, Shikyo? Why do you think I'm talking about you when I say mafia? Stop pulling random implications out of what I'm saying. I've said to "read my posts as they are".
Because jim was a good enough contributer that he can't simply be ignored to be part of the medic list. Use crate as an example. He's pretty much unanimously agreed upon to be part of the medic list. Mafia have no choice but to put him on their lists. Is he exempt from being hit justbecause he's on a stupid list? Hell no because it'd be more suspicious not to put him on a list when he's done so much. Medic list isn't an immunity list (like JeeJee said). In fact it might be a warning from the mafiathat even the medic list may not be as safe as we think.
Do the math, 23:06- 21:43. Less than fucking 2 hours. Sorry if I'm not 24/7 devoted to this game, and a rebuttal less than 2 hours later is not good enough for you. Stop using such backhanded tactics to incriminate me.
I never said Jim was a good hit enough to warrant 2 hits - you can try to quote me on it.
I never said it was suspicious for you to put him on the list - you can try to quote me on that too. All I am saying is that the option of a mafia putting Jim on his/her medic list is totally probable.
I never directed anything at you, so I don't know why you're getting so defensive. Read my posts as they are.
On May 22 2009 23:55 zeks wrote: I never said Jim was a good hit enough to warrant 2 hits - you can try to quote me on it.
I never said it was suspicious for you to put him on the list - you can try to quote me on that too. All I am saying is that the option of a mafia putting Jim on his/her medic list is totally probable.
I never directed anything at you, so I don't know why you're getting so defensive. Read my posts as they are.
So you say that it's a possible reason for me to put him on my list even if I was a mafia, although he was basically defending my decision the whole time. This means that you disagreed with him, doesn't it? Sigh.
See why are you so stuck up that you think I'm targeting you? I'll repeat it once more. All I said in that exchange was that the option of a mafia putting Jim on his/her medic list is totally probable. Don't make it look like I'm against you now. Although you've built up quite a case on me (or at least had a good attempt to), I'm not going to start going finger-pointing-crazy.
I didn't contribute that much for the night 2 lynch, and I admit my fault. But I assure the town that after you read my analysis that I will have for tonight (12 hours) tomorrow (24 hours) there will be no doubt of my contributions.
If anyone wants me to clarify anything I've said I'm very willing to now as I am now forced into a defensive position.
First of all, sorry about saying "being silent for a while", it was meant for more of the storytelling rather than using it to accuse you of something. Oh, you meant the "never to be seen again"? Yes, that was before these last few posts of you. I indeed meant that the convo was in those last few quotes, that I quoted after I had said that. I thought it was apparent
Was I really that unclear with what I meant? I wonder if someone else was so confused about this. It was really important, after all, so it definitely is worth mentioning. Right? That wasn't actually even my mistake, you just happened to misread.
I know what "Mafia may want to have a mixed list maybe? Would mafia want to make the whole medic list full of mafia?" was a response to. Hey, didn't you just say to not read your posts out of context? And then you tell to read them how they are? No, I won't read how they are. I will look in between the lines.
Indeed, if teks is defending my decision to put Jimtudor on the list, and then asks how it would benefit the mafia to put their target on the list, and then you come up with an answer(that makes no sense, I think you forgot to address how stupid your suggestion is), it implies that you think it's possible that I did it as mafia after all. Reading posts in the right context, weren't you advocating that yourself? To me, a terrible, forced suggestion like that in that context makes it seem like you're trying to find some way to make me it seem like I could make that decision as mafia, implying again that it's possible, even likely, that I'm mafia.
But hey, maybe I'm reading it all wrong and your brain just stopped functioning as you posted that. That definitely is possible, as well. It's not a random implication, it definitely is justified.
Do you know why it's justified? It seems like you forgot something important. It was none other than I who personally made the final medic list. Of course it implies I'm mafia if you say that mafia could have put him on the medic list and try to find justification for it?
That's like saying "This game's host is doing a great job!" and then asking you to quote me ever saying that "Pyrrhuloxia is doing a great job". If you didn't catch it, it means the same thing.
Maybe I should ask my English teacher if there indeed is an implication there? Seems like you based the mayority of your argument around that implication that I see there. That makes me happy, it means that your case for defending yourself must be pretty weak. And how can you call it random? I'm sure you've read my explanation numerous times by now.
And haha, you didn't seem to understand the main point about that post of mine and the one after it, did you?
Well, it is that it actually is NOT totally probable or intelligent for Mafia to put Jimtudor on their medic lists. Why? People WERE casting suspicion on him. It would have been really simple to go along with that and take him off the list, maximizing the chance of hitting him. Your arguments are dead wrong. That's the point.
Hey zeks, was this your defense? Because you are doing an abysmal job with it. Oh, and "I will post something in x days" is the oldest trick in the book.
I partially agree with zeks quoting the post by JeeJee, but I think I'm going to post some more accurate directions for the medics later on. For now, don't protect zeks
BTW, I edited that post in the middle, top and bottom as things popped to my head. As such the structure is terrible and I might say things twice. Doesn't matter much, though.
teks, that kind of clue analysis is definitely useful and is a nice format for it. The amount of detail is just kind of... yeah.
About lynching Therapy, I wasn't even considering that I would become the mayor. Then when I was just about to go to sleep, I thought "Hmm who is the town for lynching? Therapy seems like the agreed on option, let me send that", and then sent it. It was late at night, and I fell asleep soon afterwards. I'm not sure if Pyrr is allowed to verify this, but my PM I sent to him was something like "Therapy for now, but I might change it later", implying that I was unsure. Unnecessary information, but someone might want to look at that.
On May 18 2009 23:13 teks wrote: I saw in the other mafia game going on that they were talking about rolechecking the losers of the election, as it would be a big chance that atleast one of them would be mafia.
Interesting that you were the first person to bring this up way back on day 1. Let's assume for a second that at least one of the candidates that ran for office in our game is mafia (a relatively reasonable assumption). Now all that's left is to figure out who it is. Say zeks is indeed mafia like everyone is claiming. What does he have to gain from killing JimTudor the first night? Only the fact that a townsperson is dead.
zeks has played in past mafia games so we know he is not a first timer and has some idea of what's going on. It is very common to rolecheck and suspect losers of the election. If he killed JimTudor during the night, that would make him prime suspect for this case (as we have just seen).
Honestly what a stupid move on his part. He kills the competition (JimTudor was suspected by many many people), now he's the only one left that looks suspicious. Do you think zeks is this stupid (gj crate)? Seems unlikely.
Let's consider the other alternative. Shikyo is mafia. He is a smart man, and knows that losers of the election are going to be accused. He decides to kill two birds with one stone. He kills JimTudor the first night, knocking out one of the 'major' candidates for the election. His plan is then to come out with "evidence" against zeks. Although he has not directly said it, Shikyo is basically saying "one of the candidates for election has to be mafia. Well, it's not me, I don't think it's JeeJee. JimTudor is dead. Oh! Must be zeks!"
Perhaps he was going to come out with this plan right away on day 2. Unfortunately there was such a bandwagon for killing Jayme that seemed like it wouldn't get overturned. Shikyo decides, alright we can sack Jayme since we know he's clean. As soon as night rolls around I can start the plan against zeks.
What do you think is more likely? zeks the stupid mafia or Shikyo the mastermind?
Foolishness, that's actually a great point you bring up. Your Shikyo-Is-Mafia obsession aside, that indeed does make sense if zeks is the godfather.
Listen to this, people.
On May 19 2009 09:09 Shikyo wrote: JeeJee, this argument isn't leading anywhere. His way of talking, albeit odd, wasn't really my main concern. I was just stating what I thought and observed, it's up to you to make out of it what you will.
I would also like to propose that DTs rolecheck the losing parties of the elections asap. As was said in the other mafia game, it's likely at least one mafia is attempting to get elected, and so the losing candidates would be ideal targets for the DTs, assuming that no other, higher priority targets come up.
This post was written before zeks ran for office, meaning that he knew about my plan all along. Now just imagine that zeks is the Godfather, and
think about this scenario:
Zeks is the godfather, so he's safe from rolechecks. He notices that we're going to check him if he's not elected. He starts posting really late. He knows he has no chance of winning the elections anymore, but he runs for office anyway. Why is that? He was planning on losing the elections all along. Why did he ask for people to vote for him in so many occassions?
He wanted to be considered a prime candidate, someone we indeed should rolecheck after the elections are over, just according to the plan. His DT R/C plans and such all complement this story. This also gives a possible answer to the mysterious, seemingly stupid, hit of Jimtudor as well. He was an obvious third, and he would have been the prime candidate for a DT rolecheck. In fact, he was almost sure to be rolechecked. He'd have been shown as innocent, and the town could have started trusting him.
However, zeks wanted to be the one who people see as innocent, so he killed Jimtudor off. It's likely he even used 2 hits against him because he wanted to be sure to take him out. Now, a DT would R/C him according to the plan, see he's an innocent(although he isn't), and the town would give all of their information to him. However, it was not to be.
The paragraphs are wrong in that post, but I doubt it matters much.
SugiuraMidori, you're absolutely correct. That also adds up to his strange, random post in the middle of all kinds of analysis and accusations. I think that he too would be a good choice for a lynch in the coming days.
On May 24 2009 05:00 chaoser wrote: regarding my word choices, i really did mean THEY. I meant the elected. I am not an elected, we are not elected, JeeJee and Shikyo are elected. They are the "they" I talk about. and what random post are yo talking about? the one where I said the elected should do more? I wrote that up last night, and then went to a party before I could post it and when I woke up this morning i posted before i refresh
So you're only saying we should do more, when I've spent the last 10 hours typing and checking up the post history? What the fuck?
Now, it seems like the list is going to be only 4 names... but I really think it should be longer. Any suggestions?
I think that teks should be the highest priority to protect tonight, but everyone shouldn't protect him. It really would be easier to organize if the medics could somehow contact each other. Oh well, let's hope they already have something set up.
Don't protect zeks, iLoveKTF, or other suspected mafia. It's pretty obvious why, vigis might want to decide to take action. Tonight is far more important in that aspect than the last night, since now we have to worry about not blocking vigilante hits.
On May 24 2009 05:24 crate wrote: one thing quick: I think it is very unlikely Pyrry would use zeks's name in a clue when he has some good info in his profile to form a clue from. The "winning isn't everything quote" can be attributed to either Vince Lombardi or to Red Sanders and there are tons of places to go from there.
I'm not sure about compressed air causing a windshield to shatter either.
However I haven't had time to think about what zeks has posted yet so I am not jumping to any conclusions right away.
Clue analysis is not the main point of concern about the analysis right now, it's the behavior.
first PM in that conversation. The time for the last one I already mentioned.
How come I'm doing it wrong by first assuming he was the GF? O_o What am I supposed to do then? It makes no sense if he's green. I'd just label him as an idiot.
"(teks) I don't TRUST anyone to be honest. Not even you But I'm pretty positive that Shikyo isn't mafia. And JeeJee has had me convinced. Jury is still out on Jimtudor I guess - I don't trust him yet.
----------------------------------------- (zeks) Original Message: do you trust all 3 of - Shikyo, JimTudor and JeeJee?
----------------------------------------- (teks) Original Message: atm I'm suspecting Foolishness, Phelix and softer. Mostly based on laying low and votes though, it's hard to judge them with the low activity level we are having at the moment.. I really hope we manage to draw people out.
----------------------------------------- (zeks) Original Message: who are you suspecting behaviour wise?"
It doesn't make sense for him to not respond to this if he's green or blue, maybe tell who he suspects himself.
"On May 19 2009 14:20 zeks wrote: I don't agree with lynching an inactive the first day. Since this is a newbie friendly game, those with blue roles might be more inclined to stay lurking since they know they have an important role and don't want to die so early."
It doesn't make sense to be against lynching inactives if you're green or blue.
In his DT R/C plan, it doesn't make sense for him to not think that the probability of R/Cing Godfather isn't large enough.
If he's a green or blue, it makes no sense for him to talk about the medic list but then not suggest a list of his own.
If he's a green or blue, his terrible arguments about the reasons behind mafia including Jimtudor on a medic list don't make sense.
Also, if he's green or blue, his defense about minor information makes no sense, instead he should be pointing out where he has been useful for the town and what about his behavior isn't mafia-like. Not about what minor mistakes the people who accuse him make.
crate, it's a combination of many things. No single thing makes him seem like a mafia, the combination gives the impression. And where do you think the suspicion about him being the godfather would come from? So are you saying that everyone is innocent, we should just lynch people off poor clue analysis, and wonder why we lose the game?
Zeks, wtf? I expected more of you. Oh well, it's not that bad.
Teks is the remaining vigilante. Teks vigied zeks. There were 4 deaths, so it can't be a mafia. Although esben's loss was pretty disappointing, our medics and DTs are still intact.
I'm sure if someone tries, they can tie some clues about the death to teks. I assume that he's that thing in his profile picture, although I'm not sure what it's able to do.
Everyone, send your roles to teks. This is going to make the town a lot more organized and help us pick the mafia out easier.
I'd also like to comment on the mafia's kills. This time, they make absolutely no sense. Koopie was a suspect, and so no fek, although probably important, was still a townie and not the highest profile player. EsbenPM was a decent lynch, though.
Everyone sends their role to teks. Teks sees if the amount of blues is what they should be. Note: There are only 5 townies and 2 millers left. Since most mafia are going to claim townie, we're going to have possibly as many as 14 people claiming townie. HALF of those are going to be mafia. That leaves a 50% chance for a random lynch, and with clue analysis and behavioral analysis, we WILL be able to lynch at least 1 mafia tonight, although 2 is extremely possible. If there are too many blues, it should be simple enough to find out the ones who lie. Teks will also be able to act as a mouth for the DT's.
EVERYONE needs to PM their role to teks as soon as possible. He has to make a list of who has sent a role and who hasn't. People who don't send roles will be immediately seen as extremely suspicious.
If we are able to nail 2 mafia today, their KP will be reduced to 2. If we manage to accomplish this, we have essentially won the game.
What this all accomplishes:
Ability to properly organize medics and DT's, ability for the DT's to have their information heard through a mouth. Ability to essentially confirm all the blues, unless a mafia R/C's as one, in which case we'll find out who that is. Ability to make sure that there will be 7 mafia in 14 townies. We also will be able to have medic lists just for the sake of having them, and giving direct orders to medics for who to protect, leaving the mafia guessing.
What this requires:
People to be active enough to send their roles. I'm actually slightly worried about this, but please EVERYONE do this.
Keep the list secret from the public. At the end of the day / night you should PM the list to the people we have managed to confirm in the case you die.
On May 24 2009 22:01 Shikyo wrote: Keep the list secret from the public. At the end of the day / night you should PM the list to the people we have managed to confirm in the case you die.
No sheriff protection?
Never!
Actually it might be a good idea to use up one of them for you. ^_^ That's what I was going to say, of course!
Wow, crate. Didn't I suggest you to spend the time more usefully? Yeah, zeks was green. I admit that was a blunder on my part, but his behavior indeed was suspicious. If you don't think it was, well, nothing I can do about that. I think that it was. The other person I suggested? You mean koopie? Too lazy to read through the whole post.
Well, I was wrong again, but even Judge was surprised she was green. Maybe you feel otherwise, not sure what to do about that. Let me just ask you, why aren't all the blues I know dead already? "Because you're a terrible player"? Well, if you like that argument, feel free.
And town lvp? Hmm that's a bit harsh? I think I was wrong about 2 people, both of whom were acting suspiciously, and the other one didn't even matter since mafia killed her off(which is stupid). On the other hand, I've been suggesting plans etc and doing my best keeping the town somewhat organized. We can miss even this much if we want to, we just really need to be able to hit two mafias today.
Well, enough about that. It's good to note that there are several suspicious people on the list of people who haven't yet sent their roles. But what's not good is teks voting for me -.- What the. Teks I just sent you a list of the blues I know. They're all alive. Oh well, in any case. I'll eat now, will say more about the list very soon.
Let's see. I don't suspect iLoveKTF as much as I did before.
chaoser seemed to actually be relatively active, so I don't know why he hasn't roleclaimed yet.
omG.[RaYnE] has some nice, plausible clues pointing to him, so I'd put him as a very likely mafia. Actually, after reading some of his posts I am going to vote for him.
clazziquai has some clues pointing at him, but I'm not sure if the salesman is just a kind of a red herring.
motbob has been surprisingly inactive and really acting quite strangely. Still not a top suspect.
ydg has been posting something time and time again. Not that likely mafia.
l10f seemed relatively active with all of his strange comments. He seems more like an interesting townie, though.
Phelix. He's been inactive for a while. But know what's strange? around 5:30am on May 23 I sent him a PM asking if he was a blue and got a response in just a few hours. So he was around then. He said that he would be more active if I wanted him to, and told me he was a townie. I told him that thought that he wasn't mafia, and then he just disappeared. So it actually seems like he's mafia to me.
BWdero I've been suspicious of for a while, and he's played in many mafia games before. That's why, his inactivity has been striking me as odd, and the posts he makes seem to just be some kind of strange spam. A high mafia suspect.
epicdoom. He hasn't been making much sense at all. I don't know if it would make sense for him to be mafia either, would they let him vote so strangely? But since there are so many mafia in such a low amount of people, he's a strong suspect as well. I doubt a blue or even a green would just stay silent.
DO NOT scatter your votes among multiple targets!!! This is ESSENTIAL! If all of you just vote for 2 suspects out of like 7, the 7 existing mafia WILL be able to decide the voting!!! Decide on who to vote anonymously before voting like a scattered mess! If you don't do this, we WILL end up lynching 2 innocents!
Suspect me or not, this makes sense if you're a townie.
You need to take that comment as evidence that I won't flip red* =P Mafia wants people to vote as a mess. Then their 7 votes will be able to completely decide everything. And especially if they have me as their mayor, too. Why would I ever suggest something like that? Oh well, maybe you'll get into your senses. ^_^
motbob, it's sad that only I and mafia know my alignment. But since I'm the only green who knows I'm a green, I guess in the case you're mafia your post also means "and if he flips green, the people voting first today aren't mafia"? Now, I'll have to check the people who have voted first. First one was omG.[RaYnE]? All right, that's good. The second voter is SugiuraMidori and then JeeJee. Hmm :/ Neither of them I feel is mafia.
So I guess it doesn't make much sense, maybe motbob isn't red after all? He's still not making much sense. Why all the inactivity?
On May 25 2009 20:50 Shikyo wrote: Why would I ever suggest something like that?
I made it very clear why you would say something like that. You are basically encouraging bandwagoning, and bandwagoning is beneficial to mafia if the first votes are mafia votes.
So if you are mafia, the first votes cast are suspect.
What? I thought you had played before? Let's say everyone votes for about 6 random people, and the votes are 8-7-7-6-7-9. Now, the mafia has my 3 votes and the other 6 votes, still used on all of those. On the last hour, all mafia change their votes to the 2 innocents that are there. Let's say it would be the middle 2 on the list, the ones who would normally be saved from the lynch. They will be lynched, and the mafia will be saved.
Do you realize how much more difficult this is if we are voting for just a few targets who have a lot of votes? The more there are suspects voted for, the more it helps the mafia. This isn't me encouraging bandwagoning and doesn't have anything to do with me being a red or a green. It's just a fact about the game, we can't have the votes shattered at this time because the mafia would then be able to completely control the voting.
On May 25 2009 13:01 crate wrote: I know some of you are not going to read this whole thing. I would ask that you do, but if you must, skip to my conclusions part for my thoughts on Shikyo. This post should be far better organized than most of my previous huge posts though, since I actually had an organization scheme this time
I have spent some pretty serious time examining Shikyo's behavior. I have broken his posts down into several categories and snipped parts that I did not find particularly meaningful. You are free to do your own analysis if you disagree with mine.
Shikyo wrote: That's basically how I'm planning on using the day 1's clues; As a support for suspicious people, and also as a support for future clues. In the case there is absolutely no one suspicious(highly unlikely), I will think about it according to the situation, most likely someone relatively inactive.
Shikyo wrote: I will not fall for stupid bandwagons, and will try to make the town come to it's senses.
Shikyo wrote: I will always follow logic, and will not make too hasty decisions. I will generally vote for a suspicious player who can be connected to clues.
Okay. These all make sense to promise the town regardless of alignment.
Shikyo's actions since then don't quite live up to his promises though if you ask me.
His day 1 lynch of Therapy makes sense period; Therapy was inactive, he hardly defended himself, we had no real solid clues. He gets offed flips green. Too bad.
On day 2, there was (as everyone saw) a pretty nice train voting for Jayme. I judge that it was well and truly on its way to being an easy bandwagon vote at about May 22 2009 03:02 (at that time, there were six votes for Jayme, and zero for any other candidate). Shikyo does not do much to "make the town come to its senses" in my judgment:
Shikyo is around at 4:57 and at 7:30 (he posts at those times). By 7:30, there was one additional vote for Jayme. Shikyo posts this at 7:30:
Shikyo wrote: I'm not saying that Jayme is innocent. I'm just saying that maybe you shouldn't bandwagon for him so pointlessly, and maybe think about it for a while. The clues aren't as strong as they seem.
That being said, his behavior admittably has been relatively suspicious. Although I still have a bad feeling about all this bandwagoning.
Then,
On May 22 2009 08:45 Shikyo wrote: Ok. With that vote, I would like to present another suspect: epicdoom. Reason is obvious, but if you want it, highly suspicious voting and he hasn't posted at all.
He provides a suspect. Still no vote. Still no derailment of the vote train. Shikyo's thoughts on epicdoom:
Shikyo wrote: Most likely he's just a stupid mafia. There's no way a townie would act like that. And if one did, I'd want him dead regardless.
Furthermore, Shikyo's PM to zeks saying Shikyo thinks zeks is the Godfather was at 5:xx on May 22.
Still no vote--Shikyo is the last voter on day 2, and he abstains and votes for double lynch.
Shikyo did not live up to his campaign promise about bandwagoning. The simple fact is he didn't vote on day 2, and three votes could do a good deal to at least make people think before voting.
I am guilty of this as well; I should not have withdrawn my vote from Raxor. It's possible Shikyo misplayed (like me) and he's town-aligned.
Shikyo has pointed a lot of fingers in this topic. He has cast suspicion on BWdero, Foolishness, The_Master, Jimtudor, epicdoom, motbob, iLoveKTF, and (of course) zeks. Two more and he'll have two full hands. I will leave his role in the zeks accusation for later since that was significantly more fleshed out than the rest.
Shikyo wrote: BWdero has thus far only made one post in this topic. [snip BWdero's post]
This post can basically be considered as just repeating information that already has been said, without adding anything new. So what's so interesting about this post? It is the usage of some powerful words, especially "idiot" and "rubbish". I checked all of BWdero's post from the last 3 games he played in, and indeed, he never used this kind of language, rather, his posts were respective most of the time, although there were sometimes a few sarcastic lines mixed in. He was a townie in all 3 games.
Also, the word "betray" feels slightly strange here. Would a townie use the word "betray" like this? To me, it seems more likely that he would feel like they themselves would be betrayed to use such a word. Which would make me believe he'd be mafia.
Also, there's the issue of him voting for JeeJee, which is what made me initially check him up, after his first post had caught my eye before. He basically only came on and voted. Isn't that strange? Now, I checked his voting history the past 3 games, and he has generally been bandwagoning, as in, voting for the person with the most votes.In one case in the last mafia, there were multiple possible lynchables, where he abstained. In the same mafia, he voted for Qatol for office after 4 people had voted him before him.
In all the lynch votes, he was generally voting for the person who had the most votes. In mafia 5, however, he voted for semioldguy, although BC had more votes at the moment. After that, however, he changed his vote to Pyrruloxia right after 3 people had voted for him.
So in this case, it seems really strange for him to come on just to vote for JeeJee without having really said anything in the thread for a long time. And his language and word choice seem suspicious to me, as well.
What do you guys think about this?
JeeJee says he doesn't think the language is a big deal. Shikyo's next post:
On May 19 2009 09:09 Shikyo wrote: His way of talking, albeit odd, wasn't really my main concern. I was just stating what I thought and observed, it's up to you to make out of it what you will.
Seems a contradiction to me. The accusation never seemed particularly strong to begin with.
Shikyo wrote: But why have you [Foolishness], always, been so strongly against me? You keep talking about my flaws and suspicious behavior, but basically back that up with me being defensive without pinpointing it more accurately.
...
Now what I'm curious about is if you have ever thought of this scenario: You're a mafia who thinks I am a good mayor candidate, so you try to stop people from voting me and cast suspicion on me, in addition with advocating incorrect play like avoiding lynching mafia.
We see here a case of backwards logic in the accusation: if Foolishness is mafia, then his actions make sense. There is also, like I said earlier in the topic, an interpretation of Foolishness's actions and timing up to that point as making him very likely townie.
This feels mostly like a retaliatory accusation to me. Similar to an OMGUS vote, except without the vote of course. + Show Spoiler +
OMGUS "Oh, my god, you suck!" This is usually said before a retaliatory vote. An OMGUS vote is poor strategy as it does not use any logic or reasoning to determine the person being voted against is indeed mafia. Mafia members may use OMGUS votes to throw a random vote out without raising suspicion. Town players may use it in frustration, or in lieu of a random vote.
Shikyo wrote: I'd also like to point out that The_Master has been quite inactive as well. His first post was basically a "I will post for the sake of posting" post that added absolutely nothing and was most likely highly ignored. However, that seems slightly more sincere to me, and hence I'm not that suspicious him. It still is something to note, though.
Shikyo wrote: I'm kind of second-guessing Jimtudor, though. He seems to not have contributed anything much for the town recently, so I hope he'll do so soon. I'm not too convinced that he's mafia, though, although it definitely is possible.
Very noncommittal. Comes after others already had suggested Jimmy was suspicious.
Shikyo wrote: I would like to present you with another suspect: motbob.
He basically only posted twice, asking for BWdero's profile picture and ran for Sheriff, and hasn't posted since. In his Sheriff post he promised high activity. Why isn't he being as active as he should be if he wasn't elected? Why did he abstain from voting?
That salesman clue indeed could refer to his quote "Join Teamliquid Whatpulse Team!", and I don't think it's as weak as you would think, because I don't see anything else in anyone else's profiles resembling anything like trying to get something sold. That's the only thing I could connect to him, though. He still seems suspicious, and might be worth considering for tomorrow.
Another weak suspicion. I read motbob's inactivity as most probably a townie who didn't want a green role and got bored. It's possible he's red and is hiding in the inactives, but I think this is significantly less likely. The salesman clue may not be meaningless; hard to say.
Shikyo wrote: I find it interesting how epicdoom hasn't posted, and has abstained from voting. Is he just a lazy townie who doesn't want to get modkilled?
Shikyo wrote: Ok. With that vote, I would like to present another suspect: epicdoom. Reason is obvious, but if you want it, highly suspicious voting and he hasn't posted at all.
Pointing at yet another inactive. Strange voting? Yes. Weak accusation? Yes. Does Shikyo recognize this? My guess is yes.
In these short accusations (for lack of a better word) the main thing I read is that Shikyo is often noncommittal toward people he suspects and that he is quite eager to voice suspicions toward inactives.
There were two other targets whom Shikyo has accused in longer posts, iLoveKTF and zeks.
Shikyo wrote: So, let's talk about iLoveKTF for a while, shall we? Warning: this is going to be LONG. I've decided to spoiler it in order for the post to not take up 5 screens. But don't you dare to argue with me without having read it all. + Show Spoiler +
"I have decided on this before I have received my role. I will be running for office, either one will do, but I prefer to be Mayor."
Says he decided on this before receiving his role as an attempt to gain trust. He prefers to be Mayor. Note: In crate's analysis, he came to the conclusion(as did I) that Mayor is more important to MAFIA, Sheriff more important to TOWN. Well, it's not like it's strange for a townie to especially ask for mayor(although I can't think of a reason), is it? So maybe he still has good intentions, let's be positive. The rest of his office consisted of him saying that he played well as a medic in the last game; Nothing about what he'll do this game.
After this, he spends a couple of posts adding nothing. Just random commenting about rules and about the day 1 post's style. Note: No attempt at clue analysis. After a little bit of spam, he just is quiet for a while. After this, he tells me he wants the first lynch more than the Sheriff skills. Why might that be? Well, incarcenation is extremely suspicious for mafia to do. If they incarcenate for no reason, they'll be in the meat grinder next. And why would he think that the first lynch is so important, since the town will most likely decide on someone themselves, anyway? Well, he basically tells us to vote for him again. Ok.
Now, let's pick out the interesting, suspicious posts that come by next. Oh, he makes a post, where he says that the medic list is the first priority after elections. Sounds reasonable. However, a few posts after that, he makes a fascinating post. Let me quote an interesting part of it.
On May 19 2009 10:57 iLoveKTF wrote:I suggest we scratch the medic list and trust on our medic's decision on who he/she will protect for night 1. Medics, we trust in you...
Wait, so he suggests us to not have a medic list after all, right after proposing one himself? Especially in a game meant for beginners, when it's likely that they aren't able to properly decide who to protect, and might require some easy reference? And he HAS played before, even well according to himself. So he isn't stupid. His sentence about trusting the medics makes sense, though. If by "we" he means Mafia, that is.
Next, I present my medic list, on page 12. It includes Jimtudor and doesn't have iLoveKTF in it. What does iLoveKTF first say about it? First of all, he doesn't mention at all that 5 pages ago he thought that we don't need a medic list. Then, he thinks that Jimtudor shouldn't be on it because he's under suspicion. Under suspicion? Well, people had been discussing if they should rolecheck the people who lose the run for office and Jimtudor was brought up. Note again how iLoveKTF isn't explaining the suspicion at all, just tells him to read the last few pages. He himself has STILL added ABSOLUTELY NOTHING to the game. Repeating others at best.
On May 20 2009 12:59 iLoveKTF wrote: Things to do right now:
1. Finalize the medic list. 2. Medics do your jobs. (I hope those 2 inactives who havent voted arent medics) 3. Wait for day and see who dies and let the finger pointing begin.
Now, he's just giving orders (that are common sense), not adding anything. Once again.
Ah, now Koopie tells me how iLoveKTF is going to be useful for the town, on page 16. Well that's nice, since until now, he has done absolutely nothing.
But that's all been relatively minor. Now, let's examine this post:
On May 21 2009 12:42 iLoveKTF wrote: Oh man. I was expecting jimtudor to be red. He really seemed suspicious because he voted for Shikyo, though it didnt matter cause jeejee wouldve won either way, because Jeejee was suspecting him too. Yeah I, along with those who suspected jimtudor, look like mafia right now. But I think the mafia's plan was to kill jimtudor so that the attention will be pointed towards us and not them. I just hope jimtudor didnt role claim to the elected officials cause if he did, we are semi-fucked. And if he did roleclaim, I hope the other BG didnt. Also, If jimtudor roleclaimed then we would know 1 of Jeejee and Shikyo is red.
Right now, I am very suspicious of Shikyo. My theory is that he would put jimtudor in his medic list so that he wont look suspicious if jimtudor died. And if at any case a medic protected jimtudor, the mafia decided to stack 2 hits on him. Ofcourse this wouldnt be true if a medic had a hit blocked last night.
Damn I really thought Jimtudor was red. Sorry man, RIP. :p
Okay, does this make sense to anyone? Why was he really suspicious because he voted for me? Especially since, as he said, it didn't matter. And iLoveKTF really NEVER, EVER said what he exactly thought was suspicious, even before. He just said that he's under suspicion. And then a gigantic apology post, although he did nothing? Who would feel that they need to write a huge post like this in that kind of a situation, where some others had started suspecting him as well(for no reason, may I add)?
Oh, but the fun in this post doesn't end there! The mafia's plan was to kill Jimtudor so that the attention would be pointed towards "us" and not "them"? What the hell? Who would come to that conclusion? That would be such a stupid plan. It's a stupid thing to even lynch a suspected person, as I think I've stated before. Why would the town suddenly think that if someone who people thought was mafia was killed... the people who thought he was mafia would be mafia themselves? It makes no sense. They wouldn't kill him off. They would keep casting suspicion and try to get him lynched. His train of thought makes NO sense. It's sad I already established that he's not stupid, since I'm starting to believe that he actually is pretty damn stupid. Unless, of course, he's a mafia trying to think of something that might fool someone.
Hey, but we're not done with this post yet! At the end, he suspects that I would put Jimtudor on my medic list so that I wouldn't look suspicious if he died. Ummm what? Hey, iLoveKTF, maybe you didn't know, but medics are actually supposed to protect people on that list. But you seem to have a foolproof plan ready! Let's stack 2 hits on Jimtudor! First of all, those hits are valuable for Mafia. if I was planning on getting him killed that night, I could have easily went with the suspicion and took him off the list. Second, very suspicious of me? It's not like other lists didn't have his name there. And then a ridiculous plan that someone needs to explain to me for it to make any sense. Wow. -_-
He's for lynching Jayme, too. I might have to think about this again in the case Jayme is red. But I'm almost sure he'll be green, or even blue(unlikely because of how inactive he is).
He's acting like he's adding something to the discussion by bringing up double lynch. Again, this was inevitable and was probably mentioned before. Posts that appear to have content but in fact do not.
Let's examine these 2 posts, now.
On May 21 2009 14:21 iLoveKTF wrote: Yeah Im voting to lynch Jayme unless something better comes up. Also, we need to discuss if we are gonna use double lynch for day 3 or not. Imo, yes. Using it after Day3 is wasting too much time. We need as much kills as possible (of course through thorough clue analysis).
On May 21 2009 14:23 iLoveKTF wrote: edit: by "We need as much kills as possible" I mean "We need as many dead mafia as possible".
Everyone, think to yourself. Would a townie feel the need to correct something like that? Wasn't it obvious what he meant? To me, the correction looked really unnecessary. But maybe he thought he'd come out wrong. Although, why would a townie need to worry about that?
On May 22 2009 12:29 iLoveKTF wrote: Voted in favor of Double lynch coz fingers have been pointed to alot of people. We'd have many suspects next day.
Abstained from lynching coz I know Jayme is surely gonna get lynched. Currently analyzing some posts/accusations while waiting for Night post.
Or so that you wouldn't be connected to voting for him if he turns green? If Jayme's red, it'd be amazing. I just doubt it. Oh, before that post iLoveKTF was talking about his profile thread. Basically another set of empty posts with no content.
Based on that, I strongly believe that iLoveKTF is mafia. Clues aren't my speciality, but I think some possible ones have already been suggested.
That's long; let's break it down and focus on some of what I think are particularly relevant points.
Shikyo wrote: Wait, so he suggests us to not have a medic list after all, right after proposing one himself? Especially in a game meant for beginners, when it's likely that they aren't able to properly decide who to protect, and might require some easy reference? And he HAS played before, even well according to himself. So he isn't stupid.
This is quite possibly entirely true. Proposing one then reneging on the proposal doesn't look good at all.
Shikyo wrote: The mafia's plan was to kill Jimtudor so that the attention would be pointed towards "us" and not "them"? What the hell? Who would come to that conclusion? That would be such a stupid plan. It's a stupid thing to even lynch a suspected person, as I think I've stated before. Why would the town suddenly think that if someone who people thought was mafia was killed... the people who thought he was mafia would be mafia themselves?
KTF is using a WIFOM argument here (http://mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?title=WIFOM). Shikyo misses this. I don't read much into the alignment of either player from it. The mafia gains by leaving Jimmy alive if they can keep discussion focused on him; the mafia loses by leaving Jimmy alive in that he's a decently active poster who might make some solid contributions. I don't read any more into the choice to hit Jim since I don't think there are any other solid conclusions to make.
iLoveKTF's reasoning in that post doesn't look particularly solid to me, but this post is not focused on iLoveKTF so I will leave that for another time.
Shikyo wrote: At the end, he suspects that I would put Jimtudor on my medic list so that I wouldn't look suspicious if he died. Ummm what?
Anyone who didn't think Jimmy was one of the top six posters on day 1 looks suspicious to me. End of story.
Shikyo wrote: Everyone, think to yourself. Would a townie feel the need to correct something like that?
Possibly. You're reading too much in how something is written again instead of looking at what people are saying.
I don't read anything in iLoveKTF's vote on day 2 either really. Day 2 voting was just a disaster for the town overall really.
Regardless of the alignment of iLoveKTF, this argument doesn't look particularly convincing to me. Shikyo is nitpicking in much of it, misunderstanding in some, and raising valid concerns in some of it. There may be something behind it, but the argument itself is poor.
This brings me to zeks. I will not be quoting the entirety of Shikyo's posts. You may look them up yourself if you wish to look for more context than I provide.
Shikyo wrote: It seems like in your argument with teks, you do your best to correct unimportant things that really don't matter in the long run, like him using a too powerful tone or whatever, but you really just asked stupid rhetorical questions and actually failed to prove anything.
Possibly not circular logic; possibly is.
Shikyo wrote: (about zeks having suggested rolechecking the losers of the election) Foolishness, that's actually a great point you bring up. Your Shikyo-Is-Mafia obsession aside, that indeed does make sense if zeks is the godfather.
If zeks is GF, then he wants to be rolechecked, so since he proposed rolechecking he must be GF.
I offered my own interpretation on this action (which also proved to be wrong, but I think that's because zeks played badly); I concluded that zeks was blue, not that he was red.
This is especially strange since teks (then later Shikyo) posted suggesting having the losers rolechecked before zeks even made a single post in the topic.
Shikyo wrote: think about this scenario:
Zeks is the godfather, so he's safe from rolechecks. He notices that we're going to check him if he's not elected. He starts posting really late. He knows he has no chance of winning the elections anymore, but he runs for office anyway. Why is that? He was planning on losing the elections all along. Why did he ask for people to vote for him in so many occassions?
He wanted to be considered a prime candidate, someone we indeed should rolecheck after the elections are over, just according to the plan. His DT R/C plans and such all complement this story. This also gives a possible answer to the mysterious, seemingly stupid, hit of Jimtudor as well. He was an obvious third, and he would have been the prime candidate for a DT rolecheck. In fact, he was almost sure to be rolechecked. He'd have been shown as innocent, and the town could have started trusting him.
However, zeks wanted to be the one who people see as innocent, so he killed Jimtudor off. It's likely he even used 2 hits against him because he wanted to be sure to take him out. Now, a DT would R/C him according to the plan, see he's an innocent(although he isn't), and the town would give all of their information to him. However, it was not to be.
The bolded sentence alone made me disregard this the first time I read Shikyo's argument.
Shikyo wrote: In fact, he was the first person to suggest him being lynched. On the second day, zeks said that it'd also be a good thing to lynch Jayme because of the clues etc. I find it slightly suspicious that he never clue analysed thoroughly, only for those people, who in fact turned out to be innocent.
If zeks is green, then he might just have legitimately thought Jayme was mafia on day 2 and that Therapy might have been a good suggestion as well. I do not think this is unreasonable. I do not think this implies zeks is red. True, if he is red it also makes sense ... but that's the problem with circular reasoning. This maybe belongs above.
Shikyo wrote: In his DT R/C plan, it doesn't make sense for him to not think that the probability of R/Cing Godfather isn't large enough.
If he's a green or blue, it makes no sense for him to talk about the medic list but then not suggest a list of his own.
If he's a green or blue, his terrible arguments about the reasons behind mafia including Jimtudor on a medic list don't make sense.
I simply refute these points. He is simply more risky than you and the latter two ... there wasn't much discussion since the medic lists were all too obvious both nights imo.
Shikyo wrote: Also, if he's green or blue, his defense about minor information makes no sense, instead he should be pointing out where he has been useful for the town and what about his behavior isn't mafia-like.
Shikyo wrote: And where do you think the suspicion about him being the godfather would come from?
From him suggesting it himself? I'd have found him more suspicious if he hadn't mentioned the possibility.
My conclusion here is that Shikyo's argumentation and reasoning are consistently flawed. He is eager to provide suspects but unwilling to commit himself to taking responsibility for the suggestion (note also that the zeks = GF thing was actually presented by teks despite Shikyo having suspicions as early as the middle of Day 2).
Shikyo wrote: It definitely is something I would do if I was mafia. I'd point out the unimportant flaws of my opponent's arguments.
You seem to be awfully sure about how the mafia would act.
Shikyo wrote: If you really are a townie, why haven't you been contributing anything at all, besides being suspicious about the 2 people we lynched... who were innocent?
Shikyo wrote: It really is unaccurate and it's extremely easy for mafia to point out potential clues for non-mafias.
Yet he specifically goes about finding clues the wrong way when looking at zeks.
Shikyo wrote: Maybe you, Koopie, Foolisness and whoever else should now spend a while trying to think of clues pointing to me. You know, it really shouldn't be that hard, since a person dies every time a mafia lynches someone, right? I'm looking forward to reading your suggestions.
But behavior analysis is--you yourself said--better.
Shikyo wrote: Was it the second time I was right? [referring to Jayme being green]
Shikyo wrote: I love how Foolishness is basically doing nothing in this thread but casting suspicion on me.
You pointed more fingers than anyone else.
Also, for anyone interested, here are Shikyo's thoughts on what a mafia-made medic list would look like:
Shikyo's thoughts on a mafia medic list Normally, I think it should have a couple of well contributing innocents, and then it should have one or two mafia that still post quite a bit mixed in. And then it would probably lack an important contributer or two so that mafia might have an easier time hitting them.
(This is his response to me PMing him).
Shikyo is confident that the mafia would act the way he thinks they would and he is also somewhat hypocritical.
CONCLUSION
Put it all together. He fails to deliver on his campaign promise as mayor. He is consistently making weak arguments against various players (I find the sheer volume of Shikyo's finger-pointing quite odd) and utilizes faulty logic in his arguments. His day 2 activities ... he says he is wary of the bandwagon voting, yet for some reason during this time he is uncharacteristically silent about his suspicions and refuses to vote until the very end of the voting.
There are two possibilities here. One is that Shikyo is simply a terrible player and is handing the mafia this game on a silver platter despite being town-aligned (I'm not going to make the same mistake of overestimating a player like I did with zeks) because he's making me and others look at his poor argumentation and see red. The other is that he's bleeding red and has been since day 1.
The largest counterargument I can see is that teks did not take a hit last night (unless Esben also hit someone on night 2, but I do not think he did so) and I think (teks can confirm or deny this) that Shikyo knew teks was vig'ing zeks. On the other hand, perhaps the mafia thought teks would get medic protection on night 2 and didn't bother.
It is possible I missed something, but I am confident in this analysis.
Further thoughts I realize this post is huge, so you can easily skip this section--it's musings on how to interpret events if Shikyo is mafia.
By the way, the timing of teks's accusation is a big part of why I am convinced he really is a vigi. It makes no sense for a green to post at that time (to me, anyway: you're making yourself a target, the town doesn't gain much from flinging around suspicions at night anyway, and you can give your suspicions to someone else via PM--better yet, multiple someones--and have them post should you actually die). It makes sense for people who have no sense of timing to post then, it makes sense for a vigi to post then, and it makes sense for mafia to fling around suspicions like that in case a vigi bites.
If Shikyo is mafia, we had both of the cases that make sense going on. I'm willing to buy that teks was paranoid and came up with the timing on his own. My guess is teks wouldn't have struck without Shikyo's input to the accusation.
Like I said though, this is just me re-interpreting the events assuming Shikyo is mafia; my case for him actually being red is not predicated on the assumption that he is.
I have not seen any clues yet for Shikyo, but that's not going to sway me one bit with this record of his. Shikyo, if you're town-aligned, I'm declaring you mafia's MVP right now.
If you are mafia: decently well-played, sir, but you slipped up too much. I will commend you on your actions during night 2; apart from letting teks live (which may or may not have been a mistake) you did excellently.
Okay, let's address this, then!!! I won't concentrate on wether something I did was right or not, I'll just give you my reasoning on why I did / didn't do something. This is all going to be 100% honest and detailed, so I hope you'll be amused.
The lynch of Therapy was a bit hasty and I was hesitant. However, I had to sleep soon and didn't have the time to change to anyone. I was thinking of jayme but didn't get to think it through. The fact that I was a mayor honestly came a bit as a surprise. Pyrr can confirm my hesitation in the post to him after the game.
I absolutely hate reading past posts I've made, they make me absolutely embarrassed wether I was right or not. I actually can't even watch my replays and it hurts my improvement. I guess I'll do it now, though.
At the time I posted the first post about Jayme, I was not sure about him. I actually never was sure of him. The bandwagoning still seemed worrying, and I adviced against bandwagoning. I wanted to wait and see who I could vote for.
Just because you suspect someone you can't be sure about wether he's mafia or not. Epicdoom was suspicious, yes, but I thought that I didn't really have anything much against him. Looking back now, it definitely seems like I should have voted for him. However, I really wasn't still sure about Jayme. He wasn't an absolutely sure innocent. I needed more time, as did everyone else, so I adviced against bandwagoning... I think at that point I should have voted for, say, epicdoom, maybe to try to halt the bandwagon, but I was still hesitant at point.
At the point I voted, and actually even a while before that, I was sure about my vote not mattering. What you do not know, however, was that it was really late, and after I had abstained and shut my computer down, I opened it again, heard some sounds from outside my room, shut it down, then opened it again, and shut it down again. I was planning on changing my vote for iLoveKTF, but in the end I came to the conclusion that it was too late for the bandwagon to be affected, and was kind of curious about Jayme myself. It probably was a mistake to not vote properly. These are the reasons, though.
That was a pretty horrible play by me, I admit. I guess I just wanted to be more sure about something. Then again, I wasn't the only one making a mistake.
I actually take full responsibility about the zeks = godfather thing. I had already found his campaign and such suspicious as well as the DT thing especially. teks actually PMed me about zeks having PMed him, asking for the suspects etc. That actually made me even more suspicious. I actually sometimes have a big problem of admitting when I'm wrong. I was wrong this time, and I think that it indeed was me who was mainly pushing teks into his case against zeks. Although he was the one who presented the case, I had done most of the post history research and had pointed out many possible flaws in his posts. Teks was actually doing that as well.
I think that I also tried to push teks into hitting zeks way too strongly. -_- I regret that as well. I also think that that is actually the main reason why he suspects me at this time. I guess I was over-eager, I don't really have a good explanation, I was just being stupid overall, I guess. :/
I have a feeling that what made my judgement flawed was that I took too personally his subtle accusations about me being mafia. And also many things like how he didn't realize the implication and such. To me, at the moment, it seemed like no one could miss those kinds of things, and that a townie wouldn't play dumb like that. I obviously was wrong about this, again. I failed to consider those things.
I also was being quite childish about crate's argument about my flaws. As said, I sometimes have trouble admitting I'm wrong. Although I think I realize that sometimes the problem is there, I have been trying to take it more into consideration. I think it's getting better. It just sucks how I don't sometimes realize it myself.
Oh, about my campaign. I really expected myself to be able to do what I stated there, and I think I have mostly done it, as well. I made it sound a bit more convincing than it probably should, but there was a reason for that too. I wanted to get at least townie elected to the office so that a mafia couldn't get the spot, and I was certain I could get elected to the office if I really tried. That was the main reason, to make sure I was elected instead of a mafia. Also, to be able to experience being in the office when I have the chance; in the veteran games that kind of a chance is probably not going to come very soon.
The reason why I just accused so many of those people is pretty simple. I felt that if no one else does it, I have to do it. There really wasn't much accusing going on, just the bandwagoning. In fact, there still hasn't been many accusations except for mine. I seriously believe we still don't have the time to just sit around trying to clue analyse and whatnot. Those accusations were more likely bringing people some townies could have missed to the open for further investigations. Giving the townies some directions, someone to begin their investigation from. I still think it was a good idea. Those small accusations were just that, a reason why I found them suspicious. It still was not very strong. Also, I wanted to hear their reaction to being accused and pick something up off that. You could call that fishing.
Oh, WIFOM argument? Hmm interesting.
"Anyone who didn't think Jimmy was one of the top six posters on day 1 looks suspicious to me. End of story." That's true. Which is why I accused iLoveKTF of thinking he was suspicious. But what I found interesting is that iLoveKTF himself did not find Jimtudor one of the top six posters. So why would it be suspicious if others didn't find him as one, either? The judgement I used here was that he shouldn't be the one thinking that. It would make sense hearing it from someone else. I still think iLoveKTF is fishy, but not as fishy as before. We'll see what he'll post next, since he's back already.
Well, I think I went through every single post of his, or actually told the whole story. There obviously would only be a couple of things that would seem really suspicious, the others would just be a part of the storytelling, or might be something suspicious but not be worth that much. I just prefer to go through all the posts instead of looking at a few single posts. Maybe I should have focused on those few strange posts, I just thought that I might as well go ahead and read all of his posts more carefully.
I bolded the sentence because I was excited to have figured out something reasonable. It's not my fault if you disregard it, really. I see that as bad play on your part. If you don't think what I thought of was reasonable, well, I guess that can't be helped. And wanting to be R/C'ed would make sense if zeks was the GF pretending to be blue. He could have been a blue as well, but his actions didn't make enough sense for me to think that. Turns out he was just a green who failed to make sense. If you want to ask about the reasoning behind anything else about zeks, ask on the thread or send a PM.
I'd also like to point out that teks and me actually discussed who would want to present the case against zeks. It seemed like he wanted to do it, and well it was less work for me after reading all the post history, so why not? Just as a side note, if he hadn't presented the case, I would have. We came up with it together. This might contradict what I said earlier about me taking full responsibility. Actually, I think I should only take a bit more than a half. But well, I still would say that it was I and teks together presenting the case; I even complemented his immediately afterwards.
You're right, I hate committing myself to taking responsibility of someone I'm not sure about. However, I was sure about zeks, and was willing to take the responsibility. Sadly, it turns out I was wrong about him.
Well, about my confidence and hypocrisy... read the rest of teamliquid, especially some live report threads and wherever else I post. You can read that that's not just something I do while playing mafia.
Comments to all the misc posts:
About the first post, yes. If I don't have anything solid with which to prove my opponent's argument wrong, the first thing I would do is to try to direct the attention away from myself by pointing out the small flaws in my opponent's arguments. I still stand by my statement on that, wether you agree or disagree is up to you.
He really only presented clues and suspicion towards those 2 people, and didn't even think of other suspects. I'm not sure about what the smilie face means, I guess it's about me having been wrong about 2 townies as well. Not much I can do to help that, now. I still stand by this post, though.
About zeks and the clues, I even stated that the clues definitely weren't the main point of concern. In fact, the only reason I even thought of that or included that was because zeks had said that I didn't have any clues against him. In fact, I wasn't even the first person to point out the clue in this thread. That was so no fek. I didn't include it in my original argument because I thought it was too weak.
Behavioral analysis indeed is better. That was just a taunt, with which I was merely attempting to annoy you. I didn't really mean that, which might be apparent because of the sarcastic tone. It's not that difficult to see that I was not being serious. However, I still stand by that post's point, as well. There won't be any clues pointing to me.
mafiascum.net/wiki? Yeah, that's nice and all. I'd prefer you to give the arguments in your own words, it's so easy to try to link everything you think that might be suspicious to the wiki, you know? Well, if you didn't see that either, I wasn't really being serious here either... although I don't know what I'm supposed to say, that I can be wrong too? Uhmm I wasn't trying to use that as a reasoning for why I would be right about the others as well, it was more of a "yay I was right" thing. So I believe that the link is unrelated...
About Foolishness, I never accused him of being mafia or anything. So... yeah, this point seems kind of strange.
Also, notice how kind it was of me to give him the supposed mafia medic list although I knew he was going to use it against me?
Shikyo: O_o You're thinking I might be mafia? ^_^ I think they'd have hit a lot more blues if that was the case =P Well, good luck, but it might be good to dedicate some time to actually figuring out which 2 people we need to lynch. It's pretty important to get at least 1 of them right.
----------------------------------------- crate: I was trying to make sense of your posts about the medic list (during the zeks = GF? debate) and I thought it would help if I knew what you were thinking insofar as mafia-made medic lists go.
----------------------------------------- Shikyo: Normally, I think it should have a couple of well contributing innocents, and then it should have one or two mafia that still post quite a bit mixed in. And then it would probably lack an important contributer or two so that mafia might have an easier time hitting them.
Why are you asking this, if I may ask?
----------------------------------------- crate: I'm going back over your discussion about zeks right now and I'm still a bit lost in the medic list thing.
I have a simple question for you: what do you think a mafia medic list would look like?
Thanks in advance.
Why didn't you include the entire conversation? Also, I'm pretty curious of why you believe this PM supports your claim of me knowing how the mafia thinks and acts, when you specifically requested a mafia medic list. Also, it's impossible to know. That's why I said "normally", because there are too many factors that would alter that list. There was also a lot of uncertainity, "should" "probably" and such, because honestly they could be trying something different. That's just a very basic way of thinking. Did that help you make sense of my posts?
"my case for him actually being red is not predicated on the assumption that he is." Man, I was just going to point out that it was, but then you post this. I guess not, then? T_T Many of the arguments seem to assume that, though.
again, Mafia's MVP? I guess the zeks lynch was one, but do you honestly believe it was such an unreasonable accusation? As I already told you in the PM, I hope you don't devote all of your time on this. I also was wrong in my PM, we need to hit twice today, once might not be enough.
If I see someone voting for me without reading all of that through, I'm going to personally strangle them, by the way. ^_^ I spent 2 hours typing that.
Oh man, you're going to jump on me for this huge contradiction. I never accused foolishness of being mafia seriously except for the time during day 1, which I forgot. That was just an example of how anyone can accuse anyone if he feels like trying to find connectins to somewhere, and it wasn't a serious accusation. -_-
teks wrote: His plan was then to make me the confirmed and gullible townie, then have me give him the list "in the event that I die"
holy shit how did i miss this?
do NOT do that
The ONLY PERSON who should see the whole list is you, teks
If you are 100% sure someone else is townie, ok, go ahead and pass on the list (NOT TONIGHT since you should be in jail) but it's clear the mafia are not great at finding blues this game (Jim doesn't count since there was no way to know till he died) so do not make it all too easy for them.
JeeJee lock teks up tonight pls if you haven't already.
My plan was to give it to confirmed people. I wasn't included in those. -_- If you don't believe I'm innocent because of that post, I don't think I can sway your opinion anymore. That was the best I could give, any further and I'm lying.
On May 26 2009 00:36 JeeJee wrote: already done crate
also, pm received, decision made to recap, our plan for today
vote for double, shikyo and omg[rayne]
i regret some of the things i've done.. jayme should not have died, and shikyo shouldn't have known as much as he does right now
time to turn this town around and pull out the golden chains of justice oft promised
Nope, don't vote for me. -_- Damn you, we have to hit with BOTH hits to reduce the KP. Even if you hit with the other one, they'll still have the same KP. Don't you realize this?
People, don't vote for me. Or maybe you should, for the amusement factor. OH SHIT, HE WAS A GREEN? NO WAY!!! I wonder how you guys will do without me. For now, every time I have tried to stay back and observe, NOTHING has happened. You guys haven't been able to do anything. Do you really want to give the game to the mafia so easily? There are so many suspects that it should be simple enough to select the 2 correct ones, shouldn't it?
People who accuse me, I know 4 blues. Why are they all alive?
And ANOTHER thing. If I was Mafia, and zeks was innocent, and so no fek turned out to be a green. WHY weren't more Mafia supporting the death of zeks? The only other person somewhat supporting it was SugiuraMidori with her information about sound waves and whatnot, but that really wasn't helping either.
WHY would NO other MAFIA support ME if I was A mafia?! 2 of the 3 who somewhat did were GREENS, and I guess Midori isn't a suspect of yours, since she's not mine? Would I really do this all alone without the support of mafia? What the fuck. THINK for a second.
On May 26 2009 00:36 JeeJee wrote: already done crate
also, pm received, decision made to recap, our plan for today
vote for double, shikyo and omg[rayne]
i regret some of the things i've done.. jayme should not have died, and shikyo shouldn't have known as much as he does right now
time to turn this town around and pull out the golden chains of justice oft promised
Nope, don't vote for me. -_- Damn you, we have to hit with BOTH hits to reduce the KP. Even if you hit with the other one, they'll still have the same KP. Don't you realize this?
People, don't vote for me. Or maybe you should, for the amusement factor. OH SHIT, HE WAS A GREEN? NO WAY!!! I wonder how you guys will do without me. For now, every time I have tried to stay back and observe, NOTHING has happened. You guys haven't been able to do anything. Do you really want to give the game to the mafia so easily? There are so many suspects that it should be simple enough to select the 2 correct ones, shouldn't it?
People who accuse me, I know 4 blues. Why are they all alive?
Well, I can explain why 3 of them are alive. Not sure who the 4th one you're referring to is, maybe teks the vigi? If so, I can explain all 4.
Let it go, Shikyo. I didn't believe it either but too many things came together. You were on my innocent list too all the way up until quite recently, if it makes you feel any better.
If it makes you feel any better, I'm sure you'll think back twice about lynching your mayor after I turn up green. If you lynch one red and then me as the green, there will be 6 mafia with 3KP and 14 townies. Next night let's assume 3 die, 11 townies. Now, since you won't have my extra votes either, the mafia has 6 votes on 2 innocent. You have to select 2 sure mafias really unanimously in order to not have the mafia control the voting. If you manage to lynch 2 mafia the next night, you will probably win. But if you only get one, I'm not so sure. Also, that's already assuming that the other person you lynch today is indeed red.
Crate, if you lynch your green mayor, it's not I who fucked up. It was you, and the rest of the town. It was you, and your incorrect analysis. I already explained myself, you fucked up by not believing me. It wasn't my fuck up.
JeeJee, why drop it? Even if I die, I will win if the town wins. Of course, on this day where it's ESSENTIAL to lynch 2 mafia, I don't want one to be, to me, THE most confirmed townie in the game.
So, should I go down calling everyone morons, or should I do something useful? I'm pretty tempted by the first one. Crate, I love how you are still bitter about my fuck up with zeks, but then do the same with me.
Crate, what makes me a moron? Do you really think a mafia would defend himself like that? See, you're just assuming I'm a mafia although you adviced against it. Let's have a good player analyse if I seem like a mafia. Could it just be that I'm pissed off at the town deciding to lynch their mayor?
Newsflash: If I'm acting like an idiot, it doesn't mean I'm mafia. It just means I'm acting like an idiot.
What mistakes? What matters is if I'm acting like a mafia or not. A fact is that I've been contributing a great deal. It really isn't a mistake of mine if some townies decide to be smart and get my lynched. It's actually you getting the MVP award after almost completely removing the town's chances, do you realize that? And I still haven't lost my cool, don't worry. And know something else? I know that losing my cool would immediately make you think I'm mafia, so I do it. Why? Hey, if I was mafia maybe I'd be like "hmmm I have to act calmly and reasonably". And hey, you want to lynch your innocent mayor and tell me about my mistakes? mmm okay ^_^
We NEED to lynch 2 reds today, DON'T listen to crate OR JeeJee if you care about winning at all. I don't think they are red, just mislead townies. Vote for omG.[RaYnE] as he seems to get lynched for sure. Also, we NEED to keep me alive to not allow the mafia to control the voting. I'm going to give my second votes soon after I can think of someone worth them.
crate, the game isn't about lynching someone who "made mistakes" that you just got out of your ass, it's about lynching the mafia.
Maybe I'll bother looking through that other post of yours, too? Although you'll probably respond with some "me rite so u wrong lul" so why bother? You seem to be determined about me being mafia and unable to change your opinion, turning anything I say into further proof. That was your first mistake.
Hey, that's nice metagaming, crate. I prefer winning.
Everyone! After I turn up green, look up everyone who voted for me and either a) voted for the other townie b) didn't vote for the other person who turned red.
If they are already suspects, I suggest lynching them, or at least considering to. I suggest you forgive people like crate and JeeJee and vx70GTOJudgexv, since they're probably confused townies. However, anyone else doing that is a suspect! That's probably a good place to start trying to correct this mistake you're about to make. Also, if it seems like I'll die for sure, I'm going to PM some directions and suggestions as I'm going to sleep. Because my alignment will be confirmed if I get lynched, maybe they'll listen to me a bit more than they are right now.
Shikyo wrote: crate, the game isn't about lynching someone who "made mistakes" that you just got out of your ass, it's about lynching the mafia.
Yes and no. Yes in each individual game, but not entirely in the metagame sense. If you don't lynch stupid players then smart mafia will just act stupid and play the stupid card when called on it and they'll live. The game will eventually degrade into random finger-pointing with only clue analysis and DT and mafia-acting-like-DT roleclaims and such.
If you 14cc every game someone's going to BBS you until you stop doing it every game. It beats "standard play" but it's not the standard ... think about that for a bit. Same deal here.
No no no. You're getting it all wrong. Everyone is an individual. Something, someone acts stupid when they're townie, and sometimes he acts stupid when he's mafia. However, I still am apparently doing the most for the town, while the rest of the town is doing its best trying to get me killed.
Come on now, 8 kills and zero clues pointing against me?
On May 26 2009 01:45 crate wrote: Go for it. You think I made mistakes?
I know I made mistakes.
I've nothing to hide right now. I'll call your bluff.
Shikyo wrote: crate, the game isn't about lynching someone who "made mistakes" that you just got out of your ass, it's about lynching the mafia.
Yes and no. Yes in each individual game, but not entirely in the metagame sense. If you don't lynch stupid players then smart mafia will just act stupid and play the stupid card when called on it and they'll live. The game will eventually degrade into random finger-pointing with only clue analysis and DT and mafia-acting-like-DT roleclaims and such.
If you 14cc every game someone's going to BBS you until you stop doing it every game. It beats "standard play" but it's not the standard ... think about that for a bit. Same deal here.
No no no. You're getting it all wrong. Everyone is an individual. Something, someone acts stupid when they're townie, and sometimes he acts stupid when he's mafia. However, I still am apparently doing the most for the town, while the rest of the town is doing its best trying to get me killed.
Come on now, 8 kills and zero clues pointing against me?
Didn't you say your nickname translates to death? So technically, 8 kills all point to you. You have no profile, we only get name clues for you.
You know how ridiculous that is yourself, don't you?
So are all of my ideas and plans being buried underneath everything because someone decided to be a hero and accuse me of being mafia? Bandwagoning at it's best, I like. Okay okay, I'll just maybe try to do something useful like clue analysis now.
On May 24 2009 15:59 Pyrrhuloxia wrote: Deep underneath Fluidville, So no fek was searching the depths of the town's sewer system for traces of mafia activity. Holding a blazing torch aloft to find his way forward, he slowed as he heard a sound like the shuffling of pages. He peered around the corner and saw an empty desk, then looked down to see the blade that had pierced his rib cage from behind. So no fek tried to turn to at least get a glimpse of his killer, but he couldn't muster the energy as the blade slipped back out of his chest.
EsbenPM had spent the first two days of the mafia invasion building a stockpile of weapons he would never use. Late during the second night, he was fiddling with the trigger locks on his various shotguns while chomping on salted peas. After dinner, he went out to his garage to check on the gun racks he had just painted. Once in his garage, he reached for the switch on the wall, but lights wouldn't turn on. A sudden rush of fear came over him, and he wished he had brought one of his guns with him, even a sidearm. He thought about trying to sneak back into the house, but, instead, he felt his way to a crowbar leaned against the wall. As his eyes adjusted to the darkness, he could see the outline of man. EsbenPM charged and swung with the crowbar, but his adversary shoved it from his hands, then swung a board crushingly into the side of EsbenPM's head, killing him instantly.
Koopie had spent years recreating her house into a scale model of Princess Peach's from Super Mario 64. She heard a knock at her giant, red front door.
"Hi, I'm here to install the cannon out front by the moat. Can you sign here please?"
The finishing touch had finally arrived, and Koopie went upstairs to watch the installation from behind the giant stained glass window that bore her image, as well as her favorite video game character's. The cannon was plopped on its stone foundation, and it's barrel moved to point squarely at the face of the "princess". "He couldn't possibly...." she thought, seconds before an artillery shell with a shark-like face blew Koopie and her home to smithereens.
First, sewers and so no fek. I'm not sure if this actually means anything, but it's good to take into account. Shuffling pages and an empty desk? This seems quite interesting. This could be like... mixing poker and Ninjas, so chaoser? It should be possible, but I wonder if it'd be too easy. Might be the best match.
Another possibility is Rayne, but I believe that the shuffling pages and the desk have something to do with this.
Second, we have EsbenPM. Salted peas? Might that mean anything... probably not. Now, the most interesting thing about this to me is the sudden rush of fear. This matches really well with Ra.Xor.2's profile, where fear is continuously mentioned. Another thing we can note about this clue is that the man is extremely powerful. A child of God should be powerful, right? Like a demigod of a kind, like Hercules?
Another possible match would be JeeJee with his profile, but I believe that his profile matches far worse, and I don't really suspect him anyway.
Third, we have the interesting clue of Koopie's. Well, what do we know about the man who installed the cannon? He's very polite, and gains his target's trust. He also talks. I believe he's the same person as the salesman from Jimtudor's death, so first he does something to gain the target's trust, and then he betrays him, or deceives him. So it should have something to do with deceiving or something along those lines. Whose profiles might match that? I can't find any off the top of my hat right now.
Oh well, that wasn't as helpful as I'd have hoped for it to be.
On May 26 2009 04:24 The_Master wrote: Guys, this voting doesn't make any sense.
People voting for Shikyo: crate teks wurm JeeJee Knutti Pawsom
Okay, makes sense since they think he's Mafia. Now look at one person Shikyo is voting for: omG.[RaYnE].
People also voting for omG.[RaYnE]: JeeJee teks vx70GTOJudgexv wurm Shikyo chaoser crate clazziquai Knutti The_Master
People voting for both Shikyo and omG.[RaYnE]: crate teks wurm JeeJee Knutti
Okay. So, if you really think Shikyo is Mafia, either you think that Shikyo would vote for one of his own; or [at least] one of your votes is going towards a townie. If Shikyo was mafia, perhaps he'd vote for a mafian to make suspicion about him go away, but he is already under heavy scrutiny so I don't think that would make sense.
Please rethink your voting. We do not want to hit a townie for no reason.
I changed my vote away. So thanks =P But it doesn't really work anymore. I still really think that way too many people are voting for him.
I definitely agree with all three of those, the clues pointing to BWdero most likely being the weakest. I already voted for Ra.Xor.2 and chaoser, and advice everyone else to do so as well. I doubt Rayne is mafia with how little support he is receiving, and I think everyone can read back a little bit to see what I think about voting for me.
Yes, I'm afraid my clue analysis got drowned, but I also have something against Ra.Xor.2.
"Second, we have EsbenPM. Salted peas? Might that mean anything... probably not. Now, the most interesting thing about this to me is the sudden rush of fear. This matches really well with Ra.Xor.2's profile, where fear is continuously mentioned. Another thing we can note about this clue is that the man is extremely powerful. A child of God should be powerful, right? Like a demigod of a kind, like Hercules?"
I think it's slightly weaker than the clues pointing to chaoser.
"Shuffling pages and an empty desk? This seems quite interesting. This could be like... mixing poker and Ninjas, so chaoser? It should be possible, but I wonder if it'd be too easy. Might be the best match."
But I voted for both of them. Black bolt would be one of my next picks. Once again, the reason why I don't think that RaYnE is mafia is simply because too many people have been voting for him... although maybe they've just following JeeJee's advice? I still don't think he's as strong of a match, and he or someone else can be rolechecked later. I really hope we can hit twice today, since we really... are running out of time.
The behavioral analysis is quite far-fetched and you're making all my actions seem like I'm mafia. I think that you're trying to force your case by every means possible. Why are you so stubborn that you can't even consider yourself being wrong?
On May 26 2009 07:51 JeeJee wrote: ALL THE VOTES FOR CHAOSER ARE CUTE BUT PLEASE STICK TO THE PLAN IF YOU HAPPEN TO BE TOWN ALIGNED, the last thing we need is a frickin' repeat of qatol in mafia vii.
Wasn't he the primary elected role? dundundundun
Why are you so much against me all of a sudden? The evidence is weak and I think you're still sure I'm a townie.
The thing about shuffling pages is sadly true. Well, crate's sig is "I do read sometimes". That would be juicy, now wouldn't it? Sadly, I doubt he's mafia. There's still the ninja reference, though... But I'll consider this. =) And it's actually being against bandwagoning rather than being bandwagoning... I guess.
On May 26 2009 08:35 SugiuraMidori wrote: Hmm... this brings JeeJee out as suspect, perhaps he is mafia and wishes us to get rid of the Sheriff and his ability to sway the votes? It would seem that we need to vote for JeeJee as well at this rate.
Such an angry post is very unlike him. I also see that JeeJee likes these bandwagons and wants them to continue...
@JeeJee:: It is rather unlikely that the same thing that happened with Qatol would repeat itself so soon. Once again.. I see nothing in Shikyo's profile that can help align him with any of the kill-clues, and by now we have had eight kills performed by mafia; assuming that at least one set of clues is a double pointer to mafia as all mafia should have at least one clue pointed to them by now (Pidgeon Hole Principle) this makes it unlikely that Shikyo is suspect.
However, looking at your profile, and how you'd hate to see tears of angst in others.. it could match any of the clues as they've all been attacks from behind which makes it easy for you not to have seen their faces and any possible tears. Additionally all those bits about fear.. You're easily more suspect than Shikyo is.
yes except i'm already a proven townie to the circle. btw you meant mayor not sheriff.
Here's something for you to chew on. Shikyo knows who both of the detectives are (even before teks sent us/him the PM before the zeks hit). So if he's a town-aligned mayor with three very powerful votes (which, as you can see can clearly stop bandwagons if he so chooses, and start new ones on random people like chaoser, but not on people like jayme). Yeah, he's totally fulfilling his campaign promise of not starting bandwagons or ending them. /rolleyes Why doesn't he come forward with this information to the town, and instead generally specifying "i know four blues". Yet we manage to lynch only townies and eight townies have died so far. Moreover, both DTs trust (or trusted, depending) shikyo, but shikyo has not spoken to either DT to make them trust each other, and there is still suspicion there and it took something completely other to make them trust each other and work together. But hey, if they both cluecheck the same fucking clue or rolecheck the same fucking person because they dont know what the other is doing due to lack of trust, that benefits the town right?
NONE OF THIS MAKES SENSE IF HE IS TOWN-ALIGNED.
DON'T DEVIATE FROM THE PLAN IF YOU ARE TOWNIE, PLEASE.
Huh? I pointed out the detectives to each other. Am I now supposed to make sure they become friendly? Come on, I can't do everything on my own. Maybe they should talk to each other themselves, do I have to babysit everyone?
And by the way, I also was planning on organizing the town, making sure DT checks dont collide and organizing medics, telling them who to protect etc so they don't protect the same targets. But you guys decided to stop trusting me. You know, maybe I would actually be able to do something if you actually trusted me? It's pretty difficult to do anything when no one listens to me, isn't it?
That being said, chaoser really doesn't seem like a mafia right now, and I'm willing to take the chance with another, better suspect like BWdero for now.
I don't think rayne has a high chance of being mafia because of 1. the clues being quite weak and 2. Too many bandwagoners, no mafia ever has everyone bandwagoning for him.
On May 26 2009 08:35 SugiuraMidori wrote: Hmm... this brings JeeJee out as suspect, perhaps he is mafia and wishes us to get rid of the Sheriff and his ability to sway the votes? It would seem that we need to vote for JeeJee as well at this rate.
Such an angry post is very unlike him. I also see that JeeJee likes these bandwagons and wants them to continue...
@JeeJee:: It is rather unlikely that the same thing that happened with Qatol would repeat itself so soon. Once again.. I see nothing in Shikyo's profile that can help align him with any of the kill-clues, and by now we have had eight kills performed by mafia; assuming that at least one set of clues is a double pointer to mafia as all mafia should have at least one clue pointed to them by now (Pidgeon Hole Principle) this makes it unlikely that Shikyo is suspect.
However, looking at your profile, and how you'd hate to see tears of angst in others.. it could match any of the clues as they've all been attacks from behind which makes it easy for you not to have seen their faces and any possible tears. Additionally all those bits about fear.. You're easily more suspect than Shikyo is.
yes except i'm already a proven townie to the circle. btw you meant mayor not sheriff.
Here's something for you to chew on. Shikyo knows who both of the detectives are (even before teks sent us/him the PM before the zeks hit). So if he's a town-aligned mayor with three very powerful votes (which, as you can see can clearly stop bandwagons if he so chooses, and start new ones on random people like chaoser, but not on people like jayme). Yeah, he's totally fulfilling his campaign promise of not starting bandwagons or ending them. /rolleyes Why doesn't he come forward with this information to the town, and instead generally specifying "i know four blues". Yet we manage to lynch only townies and eight townies have died so far. Moreover, both DTs trust (or trusted, depending) shikyo, but shikyo has not spoken to either DT to make them trust each other, and there is still suspicion there and it took something completely other to make them trust each other and work together. But hey, if they both cluecheck the same fucking clue or rolecheck the same fucking person because they dont know what the other is doing due to lack of trust, that benefits the town right?
NONE OF THIS MAKES SENSE IF HE IS TOWN-ALIGNED.
DON'T DEVIATE FROM THE PLAN IF YOU ARE TOWNIE, PLEASE.
Huh? I pointed out the detectives to each other. Am I now supposed to make sure they become friendly? Come on, I can't do everything on my own. Maybe they should talk to each other themselves, do I have to babysit everyone?
Thank you for ignoring everything else in the post, I assume you agree with the rest. As for the DTs, from what I've been told, it's a problem when one of them messages the other and the other has not even heard of the first DT's existence. So pointing them out to each other clearly didn't happen (and i'm willing to take the DTs word over yours with respect to this matter, or any matter at this point, really).
And by the way, I also was planning on organizing the town, making sure DT checks dont collide and organizing medics, telling them who to protect etc so they don't protect the same targets. But you guys decided to stop trusting me. You know, maybe I would actually be able to do something if you actually trusted me? It's pretty difficult to do anything when no one listens to me, isn't it?
Yeah, you were planning. How long were you planning to start actually doing it? You had a lot of knowledge even before jayme's lynch. You had definitely more knowledge during the night, and clearly our medics did brilliantly there, we didn't even have to debate over any missing hits!
Dude, I have no clue about who the medics are. And I still am not a confirmed townie. In fact, my first plan was to just get some confirmed townies together and to think of stuff together and someone everyone could roleclaim to. I left myself out of that because I wasn't, and still am not, a confirmed townie. Do you really think it's that unreasonable to try to butt myself in everywhere? I made a medic list and told them to give priority to teks, what else do you think I could have done without a direct contact to any medics?
I'm not sure what's the problem with the other DT not knowing who the other one was, I'm sure the other DT will know who the other is when he messages him. I still was fairly certain I pointed that out to them. If not, I'm sure either DT could have PMed me and asked me to explain it to them.
Did you check who were killed that night? They weren't exactly the first people to come to my mind. Were they in yours? Well you should have told the medics to protect them, then.
I was starting on doing it when I knew who the medics were, when the town trusted me, and when I had the list of people who claim to be townies. Since I'm not confirmed, it's possible that someone else should do that instead, and I could just tell them who each medic could protect instead of me knowing everyone's roles. Why are you asking so much of me, though? You're a confirmed townie with access to all the information, and you're the primary electee. I'm not really sure why any of that makes me mafia. Like, at all.
So silly ^_^ I request that the time of the posts is changed to such that us living in europe have a chance to change our votes at the end... like tonight I would have. At least I was right about rayne ^_^ And Ra.Xor.2 is mafia, too. As is motbob. And l10f. Sadly, no time to change my vote away so BWdero got lynched. Oh well -.-
On May 26 2009 21:22 motbob wrote: ILoveKTF, Shikyo, and Ra.Xor.2 are pretty clearly mafia. I say this becasue of the stunt ILoveKTF tried to pull where he voted just a liiiiitle too late for it to count with votes that would have tilted things in our favor (aka lynching either Shikyo or Ra.Xor). I call on everyone to lynch Shikyo and ILoveKTF tonight. If we don't all work together on this, we will lose. period. Vote to lynch Shikyo and ILoveKTF.
If it makes you feel better, you're my favorite troll on this forum. =)
I think that my whole approach was wrong. Why would the mafia be active when they can just be inactive and be mixed in with about half of the town? -_-;;
Everyone, change your vote from Ra.Xor.2. to l10f. I think that the chance of him being a miller is extremely low. Next people to lynch for sure: wurm, Pawsom. And I hope that motbob gets R/C'd, as well as one of the mafia suspects that we didn't lynch today.
Sorry for being gone, I have been following the thread. :/ I decided to try the spam-useless-things approach. But I'm fairly convinced about at least these few people being mafia. Now, if the mafia would just kill off more greens, we'd essentially have every mafia confirmed. That's why I want EVERY medic to protect blues tonight.
On May 28 2009 23:01 teks wrote: I'm not switching to I10f. If that is what the majority of the town wants though, go ahead and do that. I personally believe that our top 3 suspects atm are Pawsom, wurm and Ra.Xor.2. If I had to vote for someone else I'd rather vote for wurm.
But the thing is, at this point we benefit from voting for different suspects. Bandwagoning 2 people would give us NO vote results to read and analyze.
Here's a tip for the town: read the accusation posts and clues. Then vote for the one you think is most likely to be mafia based on that.
motbob wrote: BTW you didn't say WHY you think the chance of him being miller is very low.
Well for the mathematical part: We have 12 townie claims. Out of those 12, 2 are millers. That's 1 out of 6 or 16.66% chance of one person being miller. That would classify as very low. But for I10f, he can't be townie, so we can subtract 3 from that equation. He can be one of the 7 mafia+gf, or one of the two millers. so miller role is 2 out of 9. Or 1 out of 4.5 = 22.22% chance that he is miller.
Is that very low? Well, it is low atleast. But I'd still look for behavior, clues and voting behavior too, and from what I've seen, I don't find it unlikely that I10f is miller.
What is interesting is that Pyrr hands us Ra.Xor.2 on a silver platter through clues, and suddenly no-one wants to lynch him anymore. He was almost lynched the other day, but when his clues get STRONGER, we switch? what?
Don't worry, there's still plenty of time to manouvre. =)
On May 28 2009 12:14 Foolishness wrote: Is this thread dead? There's roughly 2 posts per hour.
I think you've done a good job of scaring off all of the mafia from talking in addition to JeeJee scaring off the town from helping us kill the mafia.
hey, i told you who to vote for but you decided to wagon with shikyo-the-innocent and lynch a medic instead good job.
go ask him for some more guidance, maybe you can lynch the other medics today
Would have changed my vote a bit after 5am after I saw who the people were voting for in order for ra.xor.2 to be lynched instead. But what would an american/canadian understand about not being able to be online when voting is about to finish?
Seriously, wtf guys, Foolishness gives perfect reasons, I'm one of the few who listen to him, he was right, and now I'm a suspected mafia? Hahaha oh my god, I think I'll give up and let you guys have fun.
On May 29 2009 12:28 JeeJee wrote: ok just cluechecked the scarlet embarrassment death release sentence at shikyo and got a positive
in case someone needed even MORE convincing on what to do tomorrow..
here's hoping we block a hit or two tonight
Wait, I'm confused.
Is this a lie? Do millers actually have clues? Does Pyrr have some clues pointing at innocents?
I'm going with "it's a lie". There's no way you would clue check instead of role check at this point. You're just too obsessed with me being mafia that you're willing to lie about clue checking me, in your opinion doing the right thing in making the town believe in you. Maybe you wish to be a hero, and in the case you're right, you will forever be remembered as the ballsy guy who performed a lie to make the town believe in you, about the thing you were sure about.
Sadly, that's just bullshit. Also, if you didn't notice, I voted for 2 mafia tonight. You did not.
On May 29 2009 12:28 JeeJee wrote: ok just cluechecked the scarlet embarrassment death release sentence at shikyo and got a positive
in case someone needed even MORE convincing on what to do tomorrow..
here's hoping we block a hit or two tonight
Wait, I'm confused.
Is this a lie? Do millers actually have clues? Does Pyrr have some clues pointing at innocents?
I'm going with "it's a lie". There's no way you would clue check instead of role check at this point. You're just too obsessed with me being mafia that you're willing to lie about clue checking me, in your opinion doing the right thing in making the town believe in you. Maybe you wish to be a hero, and in the case you're right, you will forever be remembered as the ballsy guy who performed a lie to make the town believe in you, about the thing you were sure about.
Sadly, that's just bullshit. Also, if you didn't notice, I voted for 2 mafia tonight. You did not.
are you retarded? "there's no way you would clue check instead of rolecheck at this point"
ooh ooh here's an idea i can't use my 3rd rolecheck until next night! dumby for someone who's an elected, you could at least read the rules
its also why that idiot's in jail, because if all the stars align (mafia please don't hit teks tonight) we might actually have enough votes next night where he too, can rolecheck. and it makes things easier on our medics too, whove been wasting prots on him *cough* speaking of them, they still haven't gotten back to meeee so maybe i won't be in charge of medics after all, barring some PMs in the next few hours
On May 29 2009 12:28 JeeJee wrote: ok just cluechecked the scarlet embarrassment death release sentence at shikyo and got a positive
in case someone needed even MORE convincing on what to do tomorrow..
here's hoping we block a hit or two tonight
Wait, I'm confused.
Is this a lie? Do millers actually have clues? Does Pyrr have some clues pointing at innocents?
I'm going with "it's a lie". There's no way you would clue check instead of role check at this point. You're just too obsessed with me being mafia that you're willing to lie about clue checking me, in your opinion doing the right thing in making the town believe in you. Maybe you wish to be a hero, and in the case you're right, you will forever be remembered as the ballsy guy who performed a lie to make the town believe in you, about the thing you were sure about.
Sadly, that's just bullshit. Also, if you didn't notice, I voted for 2 mafia tonight. You did not.
are you retarded? "there's no way you would clue check instead of rolecheck at this point"
ooh ooh here's an idea i can't use my 3rd rolecheck until next night! dumby for someone who's an elected, you could at least read the rules
its also why that idiot's in jail, because if all the stars align (mafia please don't hit teks tonight) we might actually have enough votes next night where he too, can rolecheck. and it makes things easier on our medics too, whove been wasting prots on him *cough* speaking of them, they still haven't gotten back to meeee so maybe i won't be in charge of medics after all, barring some PMs in the next few hours
Why are you lying, then?
lol. you're confirmed mafia, everything you say at this point is irrelevant
Well, I sent a PM to Pyrr asking if there can be clues pointing towards millers. If it's a yes, we can assume that you're not lying, I'm a miller, and hence l10f is a confirmed mafia. If it's a no, we can assume that you are lying, and l10f isn't confirmed, and you'll lose the game if you end up lynching me after all.
One of the reasons for this question is because Ra.Xor.2 seemed to have clues pointing to him. Another reason of suspicion is that you had sent the CC, gotten the reply, and then posted the post here in just 10 minutes. That's what makes it seem like you're lying.
On May 29 2009 15:31 motbob wrote: Guys, it's over. Mafia has 8 voting power, town has 7. Tomorrow we will have 6 or less. Pyrr, stop the game please.
and who's fault is that huh?
It's Pyrr's. I already made the comment that if Ra.Xor wasn't mafia, then the amount of red herrings in the Crucifix killing was unbelievable. After the game is over, maybe I'll write a post about how we were screwed out of this lynch. Absolutely ridiculous.
I'm not saying town lost the game because of Pyrr, I'm saying that we lost this lynch because of him.
LMAO. No.
Agreed, it's because the town didn't listen to Foolishness.
So JeeJee is lying? Assuming that he's a townie, hmmm... It's a move that makes no sense, but will likely get me lynched. I think that this is borderline "betraying your role" ^_^
On May 30 2009 02:44 JeeJee wrote: why are you still talking shikyo
to satisfy your curiosity though, i've always pm'd pyrr right after he makes his lynch posts because i know he's online. and he always answers in a matter of minutes (props to him for that)
The prelude for my grand finale town resignation post in about 2 and half days, of course. Why wouldn't I be talking?
We have to go on the assumption that Shikyo isn't mafia, because if he is, the mafia has enough straight up voting power to win automatically. There is zero point in lynching him.
We have to go on the assumption that Shikyo isn't mafia, because if he is, the mafia has enough straight up voting power to win automatically. There is zero point in lynching him.
you're kidding me right? he's confirmed mafia and he should be lynched, period. there's never a reason to not lynch a confirmed mafia, ever.
hell knows what'll happen with the votes, it's possible that mafia may not have more voting power than town. it's also possible that some mafia may afk from voting. I'll tell you whats not possible though: shikyo being town-aligned.
How can I be a confirmed mafia when my role is townie? O_o Something is a bit fishy here.
Hey, I was a miller ^_^ SugiuraMidori played well, Foolishness as well. l10f, Phelix, wurm... at least some were correct. =) YDG wasn't really a surprise either. GG ^_^
On May 31 2009 03:49 ydg wrote: motbob and crate are medics.
wow I am so bad at this game, I thought iLoveKTF and Knutti were BG and medic HAHAHA.
Wasn't crate a confirmed medic since like ages ago? Midori even said in the thread that he's a medic like 40 times o.o It's not like the mafia didn't know =P
-crate changes protection to so no fek -mafia hit list: jimtudor, softer, vx70GTOJudgexv -mafia hit list: jimtudor, softer, so no fek -mafia hit list: jimtudor, softer, vx70GTOJudgexv
ygd, it's really hard to notice bullshit connections, since there were so many terrible players in this game who would make those kinds of connections anyway, so without any past experience, it's kind of difficult to tell :/
Mafia lvp: Uhmm Phelix? Gave out he was mafia to my PM? ^_^
On May 31 2009 04:02 crate wrote: Anyone with Paint skills I request a pic of me, Shikyo, teks, and Foolishness bitching at each other with 7 others (the mafia) laughing at us.
That sums up the game as far as I'm concerned.
LOL so true.
Good game guys. Too bad inactivity really left its mark on it though.
One thing I fail to understand when looking back at things, why did chaoser defend Shikyo when Shikyo was about to be lynched?
I agree on Foolishness being town MVP. Too bad you couldn't convince the majority of the town to go along with your plans Maybe the outcome would've been different.
I'll just keep telling myself that even though I played horribly in this game, atleast I was active ><
Shikyo was leading the charge to kill chaoser but backed off of chaoser when chaoser stood up for Shikyo. That was a huge mistake, chaoser was making obvious tells left and right during that part of the game because he was posting as if he was 100% sure Shikyo was innocent in order to gain Shikyo's trust. Of course, only a mafia would be able to know Shikyo was 100% innocent at that point.
That's true, and I kept that in mind, too. I thought l10f was a more sure choice, though. But the town was smart and lynched one of their own ^_^ gjgj
On May 31 2009 05:33 JeeJee wrote: lol townies have no reason to lie, while that's all that mafia does it's kinda how you tell mafia from townies, last i checked.
How could anyone have known I was a miller? What =D And what about that too? I tried my best to stop bandwagoning of both Rayne and Ra.Xor.2. If no one listens... =P
which, by the way, should be avoided as much as possible in these games due to mixed-gender players.
Far as I'm concerned, "he" is both masculine and gender-neutral in English. Yes there are other options, but they're all cumbersome and look awful.
Yes, I have always used "he" to point at both genders, and also at unknown genders. It's not really my, or anyone else's fault if the language is sexist. Unlike, say, finnish.
On May 31 2009 07:06 Ace wrote: Shikyo there were a few reasons I told JeeJee and Elemenope you had to be mafia:
1.) didn't stop bandwagoning 2.) you were Mayor and yea...why didn't you let the town know early you knew both DTs? 3.) who were you investigating all this time? 4.) you lied v_v 5.) also when only townies die and no mafia a guy who can't be rolechecked would be a top suspect. You claimed you'd be a responsible Mayor...so when all innocents die it kinda falls to you now doesn't it?
There are a few reasons why you shouldn't affect the game from outside
On May 31 2009 07:06 Ace wrote: Shikyo there were a few reasons I told JeeJee and Elemenope you had to be mafia:
1.) didn't stop bandwagoning 2.) you were Mayor and yea...why didn't you let the town know early you knew both DTs? 3.) who were you investigating all this time? 4.) you lied v_v 5.) also when only townies die and no mafia a guy who can't be rolechecked would be a top suspect. You claimed you'd be a responsible Mayor...so when all innocents die it kinda falls to you now doesn't it?
There are a few reasons why you shouldn't affect the game from outside
1.) It ruins the game.
There are a few reasons why this didn't matter:
1.) JeeJee really thought you were useless anyway
So how about you just play the games you are in, then?
I assumed JeeJee would tell Foolishness he was a legit DT. Foolishness had been suspecting JeeJee of being mafia since the beginning. If he wasn't a confirmed DT he'd have been really suspicious. I'm actually pretty sure Foolishness knew JeeJee was a DT O_o If he wanted me to convince me, could have sent a PM. But JeeJee took like 20 hours between each PM, and didn't respond to half of mine? What am I supposed to think of that?
I wasn't a confirmed townie, the townies had no reason to believe me, could be a mafia trick to lure DTs out. Why wouldn't JeeJee tell the town he knows both DTs? Could have done it just as well. How was I supposed to know Foolishness didn't know he was a DT?
-_-;; If someone like Foolishness told me I was useless, I'd happily agree. Coming from JeeJee, though, it's just stupid.
I'm sitting on Garena teamchat and JeeJee and Elemenope says you're useless.
I stopped reading the thread so I just asked some basic questions(this happened over a few days):
Did you find any mafia? No How many townies died? a lot I find out that Shikyo tells JeeJee to investigate Foolishness, and finds him a DT. Shikyo knows both DTs but doesn't tell the town even though he's invincible (doing this would be a good mafia pressure tactic). Foolishness doesn't believe JeeJee is a legit DT, and Shikyo is apparently doing nothing about this. Knowing BOTH DTs and being invincible you still can't find ONE solid person to investigate after your mayoral campaign was pretty much putting the town on your back.
After all this info I just said you had to be mafia or completely retarded.
Oh well pick your poison huh?
I only didn't believe JeeJee a DT until he rolechecked me. This occurred because we checked the same clue during the first night. JeeJee made a post about a birdie telling him that the clue wasn't pointing to anyone. At the time, this meant to me that Shikyo told JeeJee what clue I checked (since the chance we actually checked the same clue is very low). Why Shikyo would give away my role to JeeJee made no sense. Furthermore, JeeJee kept PMing me calling me a birdie. Thus it seemed that JeeJee knew my role even though I never talked to him. It also took JeeJee about twenty PM's before he finally admitted he was the DT and rolechecked me, even after Shikyo told me.
And Shikyo, Ace cannot just play the games he's in. Did you not see Ace's recent performance? He sucked.
Oh, so it was JeeJee who failed to tell you he was a DT? Why doesn't this surprise me in the slightest?
I'm sitting on Garena teamchat and JeeJee and Elemenope says you're useless.
I stopped reading the thread so I just asked some basic questions(this happened over a few days):
Did you find any mafia? No How many townies died? a lot I find out that Shikyo tells JeeJee to investigate Foolishness, and finds him a DT. Shikyo knows both DTs but doesn't tell the town even though he's invincible (doing this would be a good mafia pressure tactic). Foolishness doesn't believe JeeJee is a legit DT, and Shikyo is apparently doing nothing about this. Knowing BOTH DTs and being invincible you still can't find ONE solid person to investigate after your mayoral campaign was pretty much putting the town on your back.
After all this info I just said you had to be mafia or completely retarded.
Oh well pick your poison huh?
I only didn't believe JeeJee a DT until he rolechecked me. This occurred because we checked the same clue during the first night. JeeJee made a post about a birdie telling him that the clue wasn't pointing to anyone. At the time, this meant to me that Shikyo told JeeJee what clue I checked (since the chance we actually checked the same clue is very low). Why Shikyo would give away my role to JeeJee made no sense. Furthermore, JeeJee kept PMing me calling me a birdie. Thus it seemed that JeeJee knew my role even though I never talked to him. It also took JeeJee about twenty PM's before he finally admitted he was the DT and rolechecked me, even after Shikyo told me.
And Shikyo, Ace cannot just play the games he's in. Did you not see Ace's recent performance? He sucked.
Oh, so it was JeeJee who failed to tell you he was a DT? Why doesn't this surprise me in the slightest?
yeah no this wasn't the case. i told him i was a dt on about the third PM, and he still failed to provide me with any information. you both failed this game. hard. all it would've taken is for shikyo to pm foolishness and tell him that i'm a confirmed dt durrrrrrr
also foolishness, you calling anyone terrible players is pretty hilarious considering how shitty you played until about day 3 where it stopped mattering whether you step your game up or not
Foolishness was just acting about wanting to kill me etc. He was being really smart behind the scenes...
On May 31 2009 08:31 Elemenope wrote: It is quite obvious that Ver and Ace were playing like shit in Mafia VIII. Obviously. Obviously.
Just who are you? =/
someone thats pretty smart at analyzing things. He came to the same conclusions I did:
either you are mafia or you were like shit.
Once again, pick your poison.
I think that you're speaking too highly of him? And who are you to trashtalk me like that? You're just mad that you couldn't read me. So the point of this beginner game is to have beginners play bad, and then have the vets come and call them shit? Get a life.
I just don't get why you go around doing that, you're not even in the game o.o Do you realize that you made JeeJee act completely retarded and removed the rest of our chances to actually win the game? It's almost like sabotaging a game, it's not appreciated. I respected you a lot but now I'm starting to understand RoL.
We could have lynched Paw and l10f if people had actually listened and certain people hadn't demanded me being lynched. Also, JeeJee played far worse than me in an elected position(note, he told everyone to lynch pretty much only townies), so... I don't get Ace. BF4Life always plays well, I guess.
rolechecked a Mafia and also was against lynching almost all the people that actually were lynched. Although the town failed to listen to him, it doesn't make his play bad. Was against lynching me... here's a quote from a post he posted 3 days ago:
"From all the intel I have gathered, mostly working with teks here, it is reasonable to assume that these 5 people are mafia: ydg, wurm, pawsom, l10f, phelix."
So yeah, MVP in my eyes.
EDIT: Not to mention his fake accusing me and acting stupid at the beginning to drive attention away from him, letting him do his DT work in peace. I really don't get what more you can ask for a DT, finding 5 out of 7 mafia is pretty good.
On May 31 2009 10:30 Shikyo wrote: rolechecked a Mafia and also was against lynching almost all the people that actually were lynched. Although the town failed to listen to him, it doesn't make his play bad. Was against lynching me... here's a quote from a post he posted 3 days ago:
"From all the intel I have gathered, mostly working with teks here, it is reasonable to assume that these 5 people are mafia: ydg, wurm, pawsom, l10f, phelix."
So yeah, MVP in my eyes.
EDIT: Not to mention his fake accusing me and acting stupid at the beginning to drive attention away from him, letting him do his DT work in peace. I really don't get what more you can ask for a DT, finding 5 out of 7 mafia is pretty good.
@ the bolded:
You mean he figured out who was the mafia after ALL the townie deaths and reasonably there couldn't be that many other suspects?
you guys are so smart.
Finding 5 out of 7 mafia but getting only 1 lynched is good for what again?
:/
Can blame the town for that. However, had those all been lynched, town would have likely won. It's not his fault if the town doesn't listen ^^
On May 31 2009 10:30 Shikyo wrote: rolechecked a Mafia and also was against lynching almost all the people that actually were lynched. Although the town failed to listen to him, it doesn't make his play bad. Was against lynching me... here's a quote from a post he posted 3 days ago:
"From all the intel I have gathered, mostly working with teks here, it is reasonable to assume that these 5 people are mafia: ydg, wurm, pawsom, l10f, phelix."
So yeah, MVP in my eyes.
EDIT: Not to mention his fake accusing me and acting stupid at the beginning to drive attention away from him, letting him do his DT work in peace. I really don't get what more you can ask for a DT, finding 5 out of 7 mafia is pretty good.
@ the bolded:
You mean he figured out who was the mafia after ALL the townie deaths and reasonably there couldn't be that many other suspects?
you guys are so smart.
Finding 5 out of 7 mafia but getting only 1 lynched is good for what again?
:/
Can blame the town for that. However, had those all been lynched, town would have likely won. It's not his fault if the town doesn't listen ^^
Yeah, town would have likely won when his PM about the 5 mafia was on Day 4 of the game? Over halfway through Day 4 on top of that? Maybe if you said Day 1 or 2, you might have an argument. But finding 5 mafia when the game is effectively over, is worthless.
double lynch = 5 mafia left with 2 mafia KP. There'd have been enough townies left to get those 3 mafia in a row, we had both DTs and all medics left, too. The game wasn't as over as you say, really...