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"Qatols killer, an athlete, and someone armed to the teeth.
I Propose that this mafia is JeeJee
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/profile.php?user=JeeJee
there is jeejee’s profile. We see his profile lists what you need to do to be a top athlete, which explains why he could jump on the chairs repeatedly without falling. It also states that not to fear the person but their skill and ability,
This explains why he was armed heavily, Qatol is a top notch mafia player, which means you would need a lot to take him down, so he armed himself accordingly.
Lastly, the way he knifed qatols hand matches another part of the clue. He was rocking the knife back in forth in his hand, much like someone trying to lodge a shovel into a hard part in the ground you rock it back and forth to make a spot to get a good grip.
He has that he is a dig power user in his profile."
Rice's profile picture is of the gravediggaz so I think it kind of has to be Rice or JeeJee at this point. Love your analysis of Kennigit (who has laid low all game), and Humbug.
Mafia does seem kind of dumb but remember Ver's post against him came (I'm pretty sure) after night had already gone 24 hours so mafia probably had sent in their hits by then (can they change them with a later pm?) Scaramanga might have been seen as the best player not on Ace's protection list or maybe Scaramanga was successful in faking being a vigi.
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On March 22 2009 08:29 Ace wrote:
Oh and I like the connection to Humbug better than anything else.
## I vote to lynch Humbug
## I vote for double lynch
Why do you distrust semioldguy?
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The way I see it, mandalor is guaranteed mafia or miller. If semioldguy is innocent, mandalor has to be either a miller or mafia. If semioldguy is mafia, he's probably sacrificing one of his own or a DT trusted him and told him about a mafia he found and semioldguy knows he's a miller and is faking being a DT (if a DT dies tonight before being able to come out and talk about it this may be worth looking deeper into). Basically, mandalor basically has to be mafia or miller at this point. If he turns red mafia is down a KP for tonight. Seems a better risk than the humbug clue that could be for bumatlarge.
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On March 22 2009 09:17 Ace wrote:Show nested quote +On March 22 2009 09:11 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:On March 22 2009 08:29 Ace wrote:
Oh and I like the connection to Humbug better than anything else.
## I vote to lynch Humbug
## I vote for double lynch Why do you distrust semioldguy? huh? I don't understand how this means I distrust him. I just like the fact that Humbug being inactive is a better option for today's lynch.
Lol better than someone claiming DT and role checking this guy and saying he comes up red? I'm not sure I trust semioldguy and this is why I ask you for help on whether I should since I know you're a good player.
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I dunno Caller, you call it the "ninja clue" but I think the ninja thing is a bit of a stretch. It's like you make this jump to the ninja thing and then find a bunch of ninja related things.
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shoryuken = rising dragon punch not shuriken
Ryu is not a ninja last I checked.
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For the love of god every player needs to see this and decide what they think because this is the most important post of the day this far.
+ Show Spoiler +A few things....
(1) I am confident Mandalor is mafia because I am a Detective and I checked that shit out. He is also not the Godfather (unless he chose to appear as Mafia which seems very unlikely).
(2) Technically I am not 100% that he is Mafia, but I am 100% sure that he looks red to me. There are 3 Millers still, and 8 non-Godfather mafia members remaining. So statistically it's an 8 out of 11 or a 72.727% chance that he is Mafia, with the other portion being that he is a Miller.
(3) I know Detectives are not supposed to use a role check on day one. So before someone brings that up let me explain. + Show Spoiler [explanation] +
When i read the rules the first time I do remember reading that the only Night One abilities could be Medics and Clue checks. When I went back to re-read the rules, I didn't see that clause and assumed that the Day One rule for Detectives must have been from another game that I read, had previously played in or am currently playing in.
So I PM'ed Chuiu asking, and since he didn't come up with all these rules himself he too forgot that clause. We noticed the mistake shortly after, but knowledge can't be undone. So we modified my ability to compensate some for the error. I won't get a role check tonight, and for all purposes the game will pretend that I used my role check tonight instead. So I won't be able to consecutively role check on nights three and four, since I would have used this one tonight and that would be impossible. Tonight I get a clue check from Day One Clues.
In my opinion our mistake actually weakens my abilities over the first couple days. I was ready to go for Mandalor before I role checked him, so if I was unable to do that it is likely I would have gone for him anyway and it seems likely that he could have been lynched today regardless of any additional info (of course I could just say this and there is no proof of that here, though there are a few others that were fully aware of my suspicions toward him). So basically my first two Nights of abilities are both based off of Day One information alone, whereas I would have had an additional Day of information for my Role-check and now I only get one role check over the next three Days.
Chuiu should not confirm whether this is true or not in my opinion, because if he confirms it to be true or false it would basically 100% confirm my innocence/guilt. He is a moderator (or outsider) and should not be making posts to influence the game in a way that 100% determines a player's role. Choose for yourselves whether you believe my story or if you think it's fabricated. I knew someone would inquire about it though so I thought I should include it here.
I think that covers everything, but if I missed something ask and I'll let you know.
(4) Another Detective Role-Claimed to me during the night. Though I personally think this was very unwise for obvious reasons, he told me that the shockwave clue did not point to Pika Chu. This does not necessarily confirm his innocence. There was the whole other segment that was looked at that could have been a clue for Pika Chu. The Detective might not be a Detective at all and if Pika Chu is ever lynched or evidence is proved on him later in the game that "Detective" could potentially be another caught Mafia member. At that point it would be likely that I reveal that player, obviously I won't reveal him now though, but will continue to act as his mouth.
(5) I feel it is relatively safe for me to role claim at this point. There are two Bodyguards still left which will keep the Mafia from being able to get me. I can now use my Detective abilities at the town's requests if I deem them to be the best intentions and uses of the ability. It doesn't really benefit the Mafia to know what my role is a whole lot; I think it benefits the town much more as it gives the town a whole lot more information and knowledge which the Mafia won't necessarily benefit from. Also when the Bodyguards do all expire, Mafia would likely choose me as a target at that point anyway to get rid of the Mayor regardless of whether or not I had a role.
(6) Bodyguards it is imperative that you keep yourselves secret, even and especially from me (and BC)
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On March 22 2009 10:17 Caller wrote:Show nested quote +On March 22 2009 10:13 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
I dunno Caller, you call it the "ninja clue" but I think the ninja thing is a bit of a stretch. It's like you make this jump to the ninja thing and then find a bunch of ninja related things. The guy is described as being dressed in black, armed to the teeth, and is agile enough to jump from seat to seat. Sounds like a ninja to me. And meh, I guess it isn't Mandalor. However, the clue still points quite strongly at Chaoser, whom has also been unusually "inactive."
Yeah I guess that could be a ninja.
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On March 22 2009 15:02 Fishball wrote:
So we already have enough votes for double lynch.
I assume we could cast our 2nd lynch in now?
Mandalor is pretty much dead no matter what, so I'll just leave my first vote at Rice.
I vote my second lynch vote on Humbug
edit: typo
We don't vote on who it is till Day 3.
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On March 22 2009 15:18 Fishball wrote:Show nested quote +On March 22 2009 15:15 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:On March 22 2009 15:02 Fishball wrote:
So we already have enough votes for double lynch.
I assume we could cast our 2nd lynch in now?
Mandalor is pretty much dead no matter what, so I'll just leave my first vote at Rice.
I vote my second lynch vote on Humbug
edit: typo We don't vote on who it is till Day 3. No such rule. @Bockit: Cool thanks, I guess I'll leave it up there for now, since I don't want to edit too much.
Well I guess if you want to add to the pages Chuiu has to look through.
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On March 22 2009 17:55 JL13 wrote:
Okay, finally got down to reading everything (page 40 until now, page 51)
First off: BC incarcerating Ace means that BC and Ace are mostly likely not mafia together. Why would he incarcerate a fellow mafia when Vigilante's can't act night 1? Mafia have no fear of being killed during Night 1. This leaves these possibilities:
BC is town, thinks Ace will be hit, thus protects Ace for the night.
BC is mafia, thinks Ace is a power role, thus denying Ace's powers for the night.
BC claims he was just following the Zodiac Brave list, but there's a chance BC has other motives.
Night 1 killings = bad. First off, you have BG+Vigi dying. Since vigi's can't act night 1, Ver's hit was not used. I'd like to think our sheriff/mayor played no part in Qatol's death T_T.
Other business. Some more suspect posting behavior.
ahswtini. Page18 is a random vote for BC with not much justification. Page40 is talking about waiting for morning to come and re-reading everything, just a bunch of randomness.
Phrujbaz. Page 39 is him bringing up the vigi discussion all over again, mentioning also that he "doesn't want to beat a dead horse." Why post such a huge reply then? Then while the entire town is voting for either Rice/Mandalor/etc, he puts up a vote for Lucktar? I'm a little confused.
##I vote to lynch mandalor
##I vote for a double lynch
Here's my reasoning:
Mandalor flips Miller. SoG is prob DT or at least in contact with a DT.
Mandalor flips Mafia. SoG is not as likely if Mandalor flipped Miller instead. Because this can be a ploy for SoG to gain more trust. But then again, mafia loses 1 KP, so it's a good enough benefit to the town regardless what color Mandalor flips.
Mandalor flips blue. Well, I won't even consider this case. But that would most likely mean SoG is mafia or he got totally played by a mafia faking DT.
Malongo has a pretty nice post, Page45 full of bolded potential clues and such. Pyrr has an insightful clue to infundibulum Page50.
There is plenty of clue analysis so SoG/claimed DT/hidden DT should split up clue checks/role checks. Well, not SoG since he can only clue check day 1. I would suggest SoG to checking "Whatever that could be found, was lost." I feel that was the biggest clue that sprang up. For everyone in general, Day 1 Clue analysis was recapped by Bockit Page37. Thoughts? I will post my own clue analysis at some point, too.
yeah ahswtini and phrujbaz are weird as hell i dunno what they are doing i dont think they do either
you have to call incarcerations a day in advance - so no one was incarcerated day 1 and today and tonight Ace is
is my understanding so ace / bc could be fearing vigi hits
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ooh here comes night post im biting my fingernails!!!
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do not give semioldguy your unconditional support because of this
do not send in roles - one of you already has and that could very well have been a trigger for him to do more trust building measures if he is mafia
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Ehh well do what you want with semioldguy I am actually very convinced that he is not mafia for yet another reason after my new analysis of the election, which I will post shortly.
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On March 23 2009 14:52 Tricode wrote:Show nested quote +On March 23 2009 14:40 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
Ehh well do what you want with semioldguy I am actually very convinced that he is not mafia for yet another reason after my new analysis of the election, which I will post shortly. Then why did you just tell us not to trust him?
Because it's not guaranteed and I'm paranoid I suppose.
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I'm not saying not to trust him, just to not take him for granted as innocent and mass sending in roles when he hasn't even requested that. I saw someone say "there can be no doubt" about him if mandalor turns red and while he is certainly looking better mandalor was probably going to get killed today anyway and semioldguy topped that by claiming that he has access to 2 DTs worth of checks and thereby seized a lot of power to determine the towns lynch choices from here on out. We can't prove or disprove the idea he has 2 DTs because the DTs can't communicate with each other so there could be 2 or 3 loose DTs out there all thinking they are the one not in with semioldguy. Or all 3 could be feeding him info thinking they are the 1 DT that is buddying up with him. If semioldguy said he is a DT and the other 2 are talking to him any DT not a part of that circle could call BS. But only claiming himself and another leaves a lot of leeway. Killing off a mafia to fake himself as a DT seems awfully risky especially with one mafia down and the 2nd lowering KP, but it is still possible and could be an ingenious shoot for the moon strategy.
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Ok, now that Mandalor is mafia for sure, let's take a look at this post:
+ Show Spoiler +Ooookay I finished reading all pages. Semioldguy sounds fishy and MrBabyhand's only plan seems to be to lynch mafia (good idea lol). The only players who seem to have reasonable ideas are Pyrrhuloxia and BloodyC0bbler.
MrBabyhand's idea is based fully on behavioural analysis which is fine to a certain extent, but obviously he trusts that too much. People on tl.net are not sheep. I was killed because of this when I was innocent in Ace's game while I heavily contributed for the town in Chuiu's (I think it was) 3rd game when I was mafia. While behavioural analysis might be right in like 70% of all cases, saying stuff like
On March 18 2009 05:47 MrBabyHands wrote:
Which tells us that:
quatol
caller
bw
semioldguy
pyrr
bloddycobbler
are all very likely innocent.
is over the top. You take it as fact that mafia is stupid and that is naive. There have always been mafia players who actively contributed in town's favour and I doubt this game will be any different.
That's why I vote for Pyrrhuloxia.
Unless MrBabyHands orchestrated this public shitstorm between Mandalor and himself (and if any player has the requisite combination of balls and skills to organize something like that, it is MBH) it seems like Pika Chu is innocent and mandalor voted for me because I looked like a shitty player at that point (and I probably am at this point  ). I wouldn't be surprised if most of the mafia either didn't vote for voted for me.
So far we have 2 mafia. One didn't vote, one voted for me.
At page 16, Semioldguy and I are tied at 4 votes a piece, BC has 7 votes. Caller has malongo only, and then Caller drops out of the race. By page 20, BC and Semioldguy are tied at 10 votes a piece and I've only picked up malongo.
Then motbob votes for me saying:
"I vote Pyrrhuloxia because I think semioldguy is mafia. Something about his posts don't sit right with me... I'm probably wrong. Last edit: 2009-03-18 13:19:29"
Would be interesting to know what that edit was.
Wait, wtf. motbob's vote never got counted by Chuiu even though it was bolded so semioldguy and I should have been tied at 13 votes. Tiebreaker is first to 13 in that instance I think (or at least it was like that in Ace's Game) so it doesn't matter (unless there were other missed votes... eesh...). In any case, thank God I didn't win because semioldguy needs the protection way more than me especially because he's a DT and I've already learned a lot more about how to play this game since I started running that I should have figured out before running. Every game I take a day 1 clue and try to pin the tail on some poor asshole. Not going to do that next game lol. <3 u Pika Chu! It may come back to help the town anyway because I've learned from it and my candidacy was a good stimulus for behavior to be analyzed I feel.
BC and semioldguy were tied at 12-12 when mandalor voted for me. It seems to me that BC or semioldguy were mafia then mandalor would have wanted to try to push the mafia candidate toward first place. But instead, mandalor starts a string of vote posts for me with weird reasoning. Mandalor gives a big F.U. to MrBabyHands and his list (maybe because he knew it was right and wanted desperately to discredit it and this apparently damn skilled behavior analyzer?) and says that is why he voting for me. What? Vote Pyrrhuloxia because MBH is wrong? He also says "Semioldguy sounds fishy" and, just like motbob a few posts back, leaves no reason why.
He also says "The only players who seem to have reasonable ideas are Pyrrhuloxia and BloodyC0bbler" and votes for me presumably because BC is winning and I would be the closest person to knocking semioldguy out. This actually makes me a bit suspicious of BC. I could see the mafia motivation for voting for me - I'm going all out to get Pika Chu who is likely not red (especially given mandalor's vote for me), making me look like a shitty player who's going to send the town on wild goose chases (probably would've been true, too). Why would a mafia have a motivation to compliment BC and slander semioldguy? I suppose the mafia could have been planting misdirections at this early time, conscious of what election time comments might look like after death but I don't think mandalor has been playing that level this game. After being accused he basically said "well i wasn't lying about contributing in previous games but everything else im just not going to argue with". Maybe he was being coached at this point and I know MTF gave us loose guidance about what to do in the thread during election time in Ace's Mafia World but I don't think this post was coached or made with an eye for future repercussions. I just took a second to think about how hard it would be to play that many steps ahead and it seems like it would take a brilliant strategist on the level of Boxer to endure and I'm glad im not mafia this game lol though this thought experiment has given me some ideas on how to play next time I roll red.
Maybe there's another reason for a mafia to support BC like he was proposing some move that would have helped them like I was with Pika Chu. I guess if semioldguy and mbh were mafia they would be smart enough that I could see them telling mafia to diss them in the elections and praise the other candidates... I'm certainly not very much more suspicious of BC over this but it is perplexing to figure out.
Anyway, after mandalor voted for me Naib voted for me a few minutes later in a plain vote post.
My next vote came from bumatlarge:
+ Show Spoiler +I vote for Pyrrahuloxia for mayor/sheriff
those clues seem solid enough for him to be mafia yet vague enough to be genuine first day clues. Though the grabbing guns part was a little meh, I think i could be possible with the others.
Then monoxide quickly follows with a plain vote post.
right after that BWDero changes his vote from BC (i think) to me, saying:
+ Show Spoiler +I change my vote to Pyrrhuloxia.
Outstanding clue analysis, you have me convinced. That sort of stuff is what I'm looking for in a sherrif/mayor.
Then BC posts a few seconds later asking why the hell people are voting based on day 1 clue analysis.
My next vote comes from ilovektf
+ Show Spoiler +I vote for Pyrrhuloxia as Mayor!
I agree with the pikachu part wholeheartedly. :D
Last edit: 2009-03-19 10:13:38
Wonder what that edit was about, maybe just vote formatting.
Next vote from CompX, also edited
+ Show Spoiler +when do the vote ends?
I vote for Pyrrhuloxia and agree what he said so far
Last edit: 2009-03-19 10:53:06
Conclusion:
Well I don't know what I can really get out of these but here is my feeling that I can't really back up with all the evidence at this point: Some townies liked my analysis and probably every non mafia that voted for me did so because of it. All the mafia probably liked it and some voted for me. Laxercannon probably voted for me because I'm pretty sure we worked together in Ace's Mafia Game. I'm a bit suspicious of BC - I get the feeling some other people are as well but I certainly see no clues pointing towards him. I think some saw me as a day 1 green/blue lynch of Pika Chu and voted for me without thinking any farther ahead than that.
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Some clue analysis ideas I got while going somewhat fruitlessly through the election thread to make my previous post:
I've been trying to figure out what mafia might be in charge of the explosives work done in the two day posts. Nothing amazing yet but here's what I've got:
Laxercannon:
Cannons involve explosions. That's Grade A clue analysis right there, I know. Maybe I should attach a youtube to prove that point, the peanut gallery is probably saying. Well, at least I'm trying.
But try this: His profile pic is a Ford Escape. The demolitions expert mafia oversaw Incognito barely escaping his shockwave and also oversaw Scaramanga trying to escape him. Notice that a lot of the other mafia had their opponents end up trying to fight them off but twice this mafia's victims have tried to escape rather than fight. It should be said that Qatol tried to run before struggling with his foe, but Ver, Chuiu and Camilto actively fought their mafia killers.
Meh, still pretty mediocre especially given the roughly equally plausible case for...
fusionsdf:
fusion is a reaction that can be involved in nuclear explosions (although fission is more prominent in that)
There's also this from his profile:
+ Show Spoiler +In school, I was the kid who sat in the back of the class and hid behind his book, the one you felt bad for, but not bad enough to do something. People always told me, "Jack, you need to smile more." Perhaps I was a bit on the sulky side, but was it any of their business whether I smiled or not? Well one day, these kids invite me to a party. Of course, I'm ecstatic. Well, being my first time at a party, it's my first time drinking. Long story short... I pass out. And wake up in the emergency room. My face is burning, and it turns out that they really did just want to see me smile. One of those ass holes decided to draw on my face with a permanent marker, and I had a pretty severe allergy to some of the things in those markers. But now, at least nobody has to remind me to smile.
That reads like something the Joker might have said in the Dark Knight and he used a lot of remotely controlled explosives and he blew up a fair amount of buildings.
In terms of behavior I'd be surprised if fusionsdf was mafia. Maybe I'm biased because I'd feel like a total tool if he turned red because I didn't start running for mayor until he voted for me. So if he's red I'd be some sort of Manchurian Candidate, picked by powers outside of my knowledge to run and be controlled for nefarious purposes.
It's 1 AM and I don't want to sift through all 65 profiles again but there's another player whose profile has a bunch of stuff that includes a quote about the US in WWII turtling and teching to nukes with some drop harass. Seems less likely than these other two but maybe there's something else in that profile that lines up with other traits of the explosives-expert mafia.
EDIT: I fixed a confusing wording and a spelling mistake.
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On March 23 2009 17:13 Centric wrote:
Wow great job guys. I've been inactive cause I don't have internet at home (I'm home for spring break), but damn you guys have been doing well.
whoa crazy i thought i had gone through every profile but I guess I missed yours
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EPT
