EPTTL Mafia 3 [Night 5]
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Mynock
4492 Posts
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Mynock
4492 Posts
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Mynock
4492 Posts
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Mynock
4492 Posts
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Mynock
4492 Posts
I don't think so. Please place yourselves into mafia shoes. If Folca was indeed lying, what would it bring to mafia? A dead mafia member, nothing more. If you start off from the basis, that only one of them is red, the only logical solution is indeed what Ace and others have proposed: to lynch the accuser. And I don't think the mafia is too stupid to not realize this. What I'm trying to do is, imagining all the possibilities, in case Folca is mafia - what would the mafia gain by such a move, what are the permutations that would make it worth it for mafia? So from my thinking, the possibilities are as follows: Ace is lynched, turns red. ->> The chance of Folca being a mafia is still there, but very slim. Folca claimed a detective role, and provided a test. If he is indeed blue, the mafia would be foolish to leave him alive, since if they did, the town would very soon suspect something and lynch him anyway, however in the meanwhile, Folca could gather a lot of information, so it's not an option for mafia IMHO. If the mafia wants an advantage from such a situation (Folca red, Ace green), they have to convince the town that lynching Ace before Folca is the right move to do. However Folca started off by saying that he himself should be lynched, so that doesn't seem VERY plausible (but not 0%). Ace is lynched, turns green. ->> Folca is mafia, and we have some stupid mafia this game. (Or Folca is a very bored towny, venting his frustration over a vanilla role - very slim chance tho). Ace then dies of a mafia attack, very soon. Folca is lynched, turnes green ->> Ace is mafia, no doubt about it. Also, lots of other people quickly ganging up upon Folca could quickly come under suspicion. Unfortunately, we lose a DT right away, and again, unfortunately, we won't know if Ace was indeed worth so much as to make such a sacrifice, but so far, he seems to have a lot of influence, so it was not completely irrational of Folca to come out like this (irrational, but with certain merits). Folca is lynched, turnes red ->> Ace could now very well be innocent, BUT! What if the mafia's plan was to plant into town a player who the town seems to inherently trust on the chance he is green based off of last game? Then Ace would be the #1 prime candidate (as well as Plexa, MTF, then some others...) for that sort of trick. So unfortunately, as I see it, if we lynch Folca and he turns red, it does not prove Ace is completely innocent at all. Especially, since if you consider that after the dust settles and Folca is painted red, Ace would become a #1 target for mafia as well. Or rather, SHOULD. Since if Ace is mafia, mafia would like to keep him in a leading role as long as possible. So a wasted towny is almost guaranteed in either case (unless both of them are red), as the suicide bomber is a constant threat, and we can't protect such prominent targets (DT, or a leader). So in all reality, according to those scenarios, BOTH should actually die soon, one way or another. The question is only, which one do we lynch ourselves, and who do we leave up to mafia? I say neither. There is a third option. We can pretend nothing much happened. Think with the mafia's heads. They want disorder, miscommunication, confusion. We want to think clearly. So how can we think clearly? We know the following, 100%: AT LEAST ONE of either Ace or Folca is MAFIA. Maybe both are. but at least one. This is information that helps the Town. Don't make hasty decisions. Weigh this information, act accordingly. I'm not going into personalities, post history, clues, none of that. Just plain logic. If mafia decides not to kill any of them, fine - we still retain the information, that's a gain for us. If mafia decides to kill Folca because they now know he's a detective - fine, we kill Ace once Folca flips blue. Mafia won't kill both, since one is mafia. So turn the position around on them. Have them make the decisions, let them think. Vot for someone else, and keep the most important thing in this game - information! Remember, right now, the individual chances of both Folca or Ace being mafia are more than 50%! That's important information! As for the vote: I myself, will vote for decafchiken. My reasons are a combination of the above, and the fact that I'm not good with clue interpretations, so I just try to listen to others about that. Mass abstaining doesn't seem too viable, and I don't want either Folca or Ace lynched right now (as explained above), so I will go with a vote that might hopefully override the current count. That's it from me for today, just one small addendum at the end: Ace is a smart guy, and an experienced mafia player. The way he jumped to the lynching conclusion is a bit weird to me, and makes me slightly suspicious. Slightly. Unless there is some flaw in my reasoning, which I leave up to you guys to point out. | ||
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Mynock
4492 Posts
Ace goes first I guess, and now we should look into people's reasonings for their votes. All those who were promoting lynching Ace based on solid arguments are now less of a suspect. All those promoting lynching Folca, especially on weak reasoning, should be considered somewhat suspicious. Somebody with the time for something like this, care to wade through the posts, and see who was supporting who? People who voted for Folca at the very end should also be investigated further.Also, detectives should probably look into the vote tallies now. I'm sure Ace tried to organize it so that mafia votes are spread evenly between Folca and him, so we have to consider that, but still, those votes should be checked by a detective. Maybe if you'e a detective in the first 25 you check Folca's list, if you're in the lower 25 you check Ace's list (this is hoping that the roles are spread evenly, hoping for the best case scenario in which we don't waste a voting check). | ||
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Mynock
4492 Posts
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Mynock
4492 Posts
On November 05 2008 09:41 Alventenie wrote: Because we can talk about lynches, finding clues and stuff. Using a vigi on a kill that "might" do something, could kill a townie, and that clue gets in the way of mafia clues. If vigi's are predominately used on mafia, we can not look at clues from those sentences/areas due to the fact that we know its a vigi, and not mafia. Since we talk 48 hours about a lynch, we can put alot more thought into who gets lynched, and its not a one person says i want this guy dead and he dies. edit: you shouldn't know any more roles than we do, unless you are getting into people's accounts and looking at them, only people you know are mafia. If you know any others they could be lieing to you. Don't reason with it, don't try to argue with it, just dominate it! | ||
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Mynock
4492 Posts
The plan isn't bad PER SE, but needs modifications. Also, there are alternatives, like if a DT can pinpoint 3 or more mafia they come out and share their findings. We still have 2 detectives left, so that would be 6 dead mafia, add Ace, and we can cope with 3 more on our own. Also, about the alliterative clues: I highly doubt that the words appearing in the clues area are in fact meaningful by themselves, and what makes me think that, is simply the fact that Chuiu wouldn't want this lot of extra work for himself for no apparent reason. I'm inclined to think that the alliterations have more of a role in it, and it might not be the first letters of a person's name, but maybe the last ones, or just the person with most of those letters in it, or the first letter of their first posts, I dunno... Like I said, I'm not that good with clues interpretation myself, but MTF's interpretations seem a bit far-fetched. Taking me as an example, I could easily be connected to the "man" clue due to my profile picture, or the "nefarious" as a mynock is a malicious being, etc... Every word in those clues is so strange and specific by itself, that it could be interpreted as a clue. That is, because Chuiu had his work cut out already, trying to limit himself to certain letters. | ||
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Mynock
4492 Posts
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Mynock
4492 Posts
The rest of the clues can be transcribed and interpreted as basic actions, like "moves closer, moved away, attacked, defended, died, etc...", but unless I really missed something, the ones I quoted make no sense to me whatsoever, and thus stand out oddly. | ||
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Mynock
4492 Posts
For the time being, I'll go with the plan and vote to lynch Ace. | ||
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Mynock
4492 Posts
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Mynock
4492 Posts
After he's dead, we can have all the psychoanalysis we want and probably get some other suspects as well. | ||
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Mynock
4492 Posts
On November 07 2008 13:11 bumatlarge wrote: SEE ACE IS COVERING IT UP! I exchanged Ace pms during the whole folca/him episode, and I had the honor of him replying to the wrong person. Just vigi the man for a free mafia. You don't reply to a PM and send it to the wrong person. If you reply, you already have the person in the address-bar, so you have to manually change it in order to "accidentally" send it to somebody else. | ||
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Mynock
4492 Posts
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Mynock
4492 Posts
It's interesting you should bring this up tho - as much as I'm suggesting everyone to ignore Ace's posts, they do hold some information value, but I will only reveal my findings after Ace is eliminated, since I want to avoid any confusion he might sow in the meanwhile. | ||
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Mynock
4492 Posts
Another person should soon confirm the same message. Now, we obviously can't be 100% that the information is correct, but I think it's somewhat safe to assume it is, since role-claiming, especially an important role like a DT, would be a pretty stupid move by mafia. I'm somewhat busy atm, so I will post more later (including some psychoanalysis of Ace's posts  ). | ||
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Mynock
4492 Posts
There is no reason for me to hide the information, nor for the other guy who the supposed DT PMed to withhold it either. The DT did not do a role-check, and that is why we should both confirm. The DT also made a pretty blunt move by doing this leap of faith, but once he did, there is no turning back. I would have preferred him to stay still and wait it out a little bit, but since he did come out to 2 of us, I want to save his skin over mine. While it saddens me you'd think I haven't considered the possibilities, I hereby assure you that I have indeed. Let it go, and consider the current situation. The more information we have, the better. Just make sure not to take any info for 100% true. | ||
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Mynock
4492 Posts
Now let me ask you a question: what is it that makes you think I have now become a target? If anything, I am now safer than any time. I was thinking the mafia would put me on the crosshair soon already, because let's face, a rationally thinking townie is more of a help for Town than a raving one like you. Sure, you might think in the best interest of us, but you're not helping. But the current situation is useful for us. Let me explain. Indeed, in case I was targeted anyway, and am now even more of a target, that plays into our hands, since now Town knows of a possible Mafia target. Means the medics can actually base their next move on something instead of randomly protecting people. Make the Mafia guess, will there be a medic or not? I dunno. Do they? Nope. Second, you don't have to take this info with face value. I said exactly what's there to be said, nothing more. The DT might or might not be legit. But he seems increasingly legit to me (I won't go into details here). Please understand this: I WANT the mafia to target me, it's fine. My life is just a green one, worth not more than any other townies. What difference to you does it make if I make myself a target? You'd rather it be a blue? This way, Town knows more, we are at an advantage. I can't stress this more often: KEEP THE MAFIA BUSY. We do NOT GAIN ANYTHING by hiding information. We're all in the clear here, the Mafia has to hide all they know. Now, if the DT is mafia, then all of this is pretty stupid. Town won't go on lynching people based on this. But it might come useful later, when we have more information. I repeat it once more, I am now safer than before. The mafia might hit me and fail because of a medic. It might think the situation raises suspicion towards me and not hit me at all. My chances of survival are now higher, and if I die, it might let somebody else live, maybe a blue. So cool yourself off and think before you post, I have no intention of explaining things so thoroughly next time. | ||
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Mynock
4492 Posts
Ace is having fun this game. Well, had. It was obvious from how he posts, he even PMed me about it, whatever. We can make certain observations from his "party behaviour". There are people IN his party team, and people OUTSIDE. How would he address the people IN? Indirectly, because THEY know what it is all about. While addressing people OUTSIDE, he would point at them directly, and the tension would be higher. Watch for these two patterns in how Ace made his posts: Example01: "Ace: Lololol, Town is so dumb, oh my god!" "Player01: Yeah lol, we fucked up a bit, shut up already" "Ace: Lololol, listen to this mafifesto!" "Player01: Mafifesto, lolol, fock off!" <--- Partying MAFIA Example02: "Ace: Hey, you dumb townie, what the fuck do you think you know?! NOTHING! We know so much!!!" "Player02: Shut the fuck up, I'm not interested, you're annoying, go die!" "Ace: I made you waste a lynch, lolol, idiot townie!" "Player02: ...*steaming*" <--- Annoyed TOWNIE Now obviously, this can't be decisive either. But it can prove to be a good starting point. I will look through the previous posts now, and gather out these two patterns, but I can already say that a good example for pattern01 (possible MAFIA) would be Chezinu, fusionsdf and fanatacist (nice friendly chat with Ace and each other, pp 62-63, also, were trying to make less people vote for Ace by splitting the votes up, and fanata was trying to push suggesting bumatlarge is likely mafia because of that famous PM he got from Ace) and , while the other example (probably TOWNIE) would include FakeSteve. Chezinu: I change my vote. I vote for xDark.Carnivalx I think ace is on to something..lol For The MAFIA MANIFESTO! I'd advise the DT to check the DarkCarnival votelist. I'm curious if my analysis works, and if I live another day I will post the result of that (we save a role check) Also, take a look at this exchange between ~OpZ~ and Ace: On November 08 2008 08:36 ~OpZ~ wrote: Isn't....It easier for the detectives to single out individuals if the group they are voting for is tiny....like....If three people voted for midnight, and dt checked, and none were mafia....? I mean....if you have one person vote for some random townie....the DT won't need to rolecheck the person to find out if he's townie or mafia....so you don't waste a rolecheck On November 08 2008 09:18 Ace wrote: ~opz~ I see leaving you alive also won't be an issue. The reason the town doesn't want to vigi me, at least the smart guys anyway has nothing to do with the town going "lolz thats dah vigi right tharr! don't inteput it yoz!". Mafia can also interpret it, so you'd leave the vigis out to hang genius. Instead of arguing with people why don't you actually read their posts and see why it makes sense not to follow your advice. Ace is addressing him very directly, mocking and insulting him. Yet Ace didn't even understand what OpZ was talking about, misinterpreting him completely. If this was two mafias talking, they would know exactly what they're talking about. Again, just my observations, and I'm curious as to how it works out. But hey, if I didn't do any thinking here, I'd just be a dead weight before I die, right? Feel free to look for flaws, but please, do it logically, and politely. So, keep in mind that nonce of these are definitive, but these are my suspects based PURELY on my little post analysis: Chezinu, fisionsdf, fanatacist. | ||
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Mynock
4492 Posts
"the town is endlessly suspicious of anyone who says anything, because they are dumb" and "seriously people don't just think 'x posted something groundbreaking, i will vote to kill him' think about what is happening in the game" So don't go jumping on people who are trying to do something, like Mandalor jumped on me. THINK. TRY TO FIGURE THINGS OUT. And add new information, don't lay low all the time. | ||
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Mynock
4492 Posts
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Mynock
4492 Posts
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Mynock
4492 Posts
I stated my reasons to suspect certain people, that's all. It's clue interpretation just as well, except not the clues made by Chuiu, but the clues within the forum itself. Never did I suggest we should go out lynching upon my ideas, I'm merely trying to add to the info pool of the Town. So that's my point, what's yours? | ||
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Mynock
4492 Posts
AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!! | ||
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Mynock
4492 Posts
Mop them up guys. Well, together with my remains... | ||
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Mynock
4492 Posts
**OWNAGE** The Town is owning... | ||
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Mynock
4492 Posts
Maybe this ought to be gg and next round already? :o | ||
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