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TL Mafia 3 [Night 5]

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Mynock
Profile Joined September 2002
4492 Posts
October 25 2008 15:51 GMT
#87
OK, I'll post my name up here, but I guess I shouldn't expect to actually get in...
Mynock
Profile Joined September 2002
4492 Posts
October 31 2008 22:41 GMT
#211
OK, so where are our roles? I can't possibly go through 3 different mafia games without ever getting a special role, right? Right??
Mynock
Profile Joined September 2002
4492 Posts
November 01 2008 11:24 GMT
#248
Why the hell. 3 times this game, no special role yet. WTF randomizer are you guys using?
Mynock
Profile Joined September 2002
4492 Posts
November 03 2008 01:27 GMT
#475
Wow, this is a ridiculous amount of posts right at the beginning. Guess I'll have to start analyzing the clues, all the while paying close attention to Plexa's interpretations (and hope he's not a mafiosi)
Mynock
Profile Joined September 2002
4492 Posts
November 04 2008 02:43 GMT
#778
Reading all these explanations as to the whys and whos one thing definitely comes to mind regarding all the possibilities listed above. Namely, that all of you seem to agree, that in the case that Folca is red, Ace must be green/blue.

I don't think so.

Please place yourselves into mafia shoes. If Folca was indeed lying, what would it bring to mafia? A dead mafia member, nothing more. If you start off from the basis, that only one of them is red, the only logical solution is indeed what Ace and others have proposed: to lynch the accuser. And I don't think the mafia is too stupid to not realize this.

What I'm trying to do is, imagining all the possibilities, in case Folca is mafia - what would the mafia gain by such a move, what are the permutations that would make it worth it for mafia?

So from my thinking, the possibilities are as follows:

Ace is lynched, turns red. ->> The chance of Folca being a mafia is still there, but very slim. Folca claimed a detective role, and provided a test. If he is indeed blue, the mafia would be foolish to leave him alive, since if they did, the town would very soon suspect something and lynch him anyway, however in the meanwhile, Folca could gather a lot of information, so it's not an option for mafia IMHO. If the mafia wants an advantage from such a situation (Folca red, Ace green), they have to convince the town that lynching Ace before Folca is the right move to do. However Folca started off by saying that he himself should be lynched, so that doesn't seem VERY plausible (but not 0%).

Ace is lynched, turns green. ->> Folca is mafia, and we have some stupid mafia this game. (Or Folca is a very bored towny, venting his frustration over a vanilla role - very slim chance tho). Ace then dies of a mafia attack, very soon.

Folca is lynched, turnes green ->> Ace is mafia, no doubt about it. Also, lots of other people quickly ganging up upon Folca could quickly come under suspicion. Unfortunately, we lose a DT right away, and again, unfortunately, we won't know if Ace was indeed worth so much as to make such a sacrifice, but so far, he seems to have a lot of influence, so it was not completely irrational of Folca to come out like this (irrational, but with certain merits).

Folca is lynched, turnes red ->> Ace could now very well be innocent, BUT! What if the mafia's plan was to plant into town a player who the town seems to inherently trust on the chance he is green based off of last game? Then Ace would be the #1 prime candidate (as well as Plexa, MTF, then some others...) for that sort of trick. So unfortunately, as I see it, if we lynch Folca and he turns red, it does not prove Ace is completely innocent at all. Especially, since if you consider that after the dust settles and Folca is painted red, Ace would become a #1 target for mafia as well. Or rather, SHOULD. Since if Ace is mafia, mafia would like to keep him in a leading role as long as possible. So a wasted towny is almost guaranteed in either case (unless both of them are red), as the suicide bomber is a constant threat, and we can't protect such prominent targets (DT, or a leader).

So in all reality, according to those scenarios, BOTH should actually die soon, one way or another. The question is only, which one do we lynch ourselves, and who do we leave up to mafia?

I say neither. There is a third option. We can pretend nothing much happened. Think with the mafia's heads. They want disorder, miscommunication, confusion. We want to think clearly.

So how can we think clearly? We know the following, 100%: AT LEAST ONE of either Ace or Folca is MAFIA. Maybe both are. but at least one. This is information that helps the Town. Don't make hasty decisions. Weigh this information, act accordingly. I'm not going into personalities, post history, clues, none of that. Just plain logic. If mafia decides not to kill any of them, fine - we still retain the information, that's a gain for us. If mafia decides to kill Folca because they now know he's a detective - fine, we kill Ace once Folca flips blue. Mafia won't kill both, since one is mafia. So turn the position around on them. Have them make the decisions, let them think. Vot for someone else, and keep the most important thing in this game - information!

Remember, right now, the individual chances of both Folca or Ace being mafia are more than 50%! That's important information!

As for the vote:

I myself, will vote for decafchiken.

My reasons are a combination of the above, and the fact that I'm not good with clue interpretations, so I just try to listen to others about that. Mass abstaining doesn't seem too viable, and I don't want either Folca or Ace lynched right now (as explained above), so I will go with a vote that might hopefully override the current count.

That's it from me for today, just one small addendum at the end: Ace is a smart guy, and an experienced mafia player. The way he jumped to the lynching conclusion is a bit weird to me, and makes me slightly suspicious. Slightly. Unless there is some flaw in my reasoning, which I leave up to you guys to point out.
Mynock
Profile Joined September 2002
4492 Posts
November 04 2008 13:38 GMT
#913
OK, first of all, ALL IGNORE everything Ace says now, and all his reasoning from before. His last attempts will be to sow confusion anyway. His actions right after being accused made him suspicious to me, and if only I have seen this thread earlier and made my post earlier I might have been able to persuade the people to do the more logical thing, and keep both the information and the DT :/ Alas, I was too late, and besides, doesn't seem like anyone wanted to listen to me anyway.

Ace goes first I guess, and now we should look into people's reasonings for their votes. All those who were promoting lynching Ace based on solid arguments are now less of a suspect. All those promoting lynching Folca, especially on weak reasoning, should be considered somewhat suspicious. Somebody with the time for something like this, care to wade through the posts, and see who was supporting who? People who voted for Folca at the very end should also be investigated further.

Also, detectives should probably look into the vote tallies now. I'm sure Ace tried to organize it so that mafia votes are spread evenly between Folca and him, so we have to consider that, but still, those votes should be checked by a detective. Maybe if you'e a detective in the first 25 you check Folca's list, if you're in the lower 25 you check Ace's list (this is hoping that the roles are spread evenly, hoping for the best case scenario in which we don't waste a voting check).
Mynock
Profile Joined September 2002
4492 Posts
November 05 2008 00:41 GMT
#971
Just another friendly reminder, ignore absolutely everything the dead-man-walking says.
Mynock
Profile Joined September 2002
4492 Posts
November 05 2008 01:07 GMT
#976
On November 05 2008 09:41 Alventenie wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 05 2008 09:32 Ace wrote:
Why would you want to use vigi's to kill me?

Might as well lynch, if you use the vigis it'll just leave clues to them.

And you people have no idea what roles we know so far.

lulz.


Because we can talk about lynches, finding clues and stuff. Using a vigi on a kill that "might" do something, could kill a townie, and that clue gets in the way of mafia clues. If vigi's are predominately used on mafia, we can not look at clues from those sentences/areas due to the fact that we know its a vigi, and not mafia. Since we talk 48 hours about a lynch, we can put alot more thought into who gets lynched, and its not a one person says i want this guy dead and he dies.


edit: you shouldn't know any more roles than we do, unless you are getting into people's accounts and looking at them, only people you know are mafia. If you know any others they could be lieing to you.


Don't reason with it, don't try to argue with it, just dominate it!
Mynock
Profile Joined September 2002
4492 Posts
November 06 2008 17:35 GMT
#1140
Mandalor, your plan has a flaw in that if the random green townie dies before the DT, then the whole work is down the drain. There also other minor flaws in it that would make it difficult (like DTs using up checks on townies instead of suspects, the question of trust, etc...).

The plan isn't bad PER SE, but needs modifications. Also, there are alternatives, like if a DT can pinpoint 3 or more mafia they come out and share their findings. We still have 2 detectives left, so that would be 6 dead mafia, add Ace, and we can cope with 3 more on our own.

Also, about the alliterative clues: I highly doubt that the words appearing in the clues area are in fact meaningful by themselves, and what makes me think that, is simply the fact that Chuiu wouldn't want this lot of extra work for himself for no apparent reason. I'm inclined to think that the alliterations have more of a role in it, and it might not be the first letters of a person's name, but maybe the last ones, or just the person with most of those letters in it, or the first letter of their first posts, I dunno...

Like I said, I'm not that good with clues interpretation myself, but MTF's interpretations seem a bit far-fetched. Taking me as an example, I could easily be connected to the "man" clue due to my profile picture, or the "nefarious" as a mynock is a malicious being, etc... Every word in those clues is so strange and specific by itself, that it could be interpreted as a clue. That is, because Chuiu had his work cut out already, trying to limit himself to certain letters.
Mynock
Profile Joined September 2002
4492 Posts
November 06 2008 17:58 GMT
#1143
That is why you need cross-referencing, and not just going off of one day's worth of clues, be it alliteration or the words themselves.
Mynock
Profile Joined September 2002
4492 Posts
November 06 2008 18:12 GMT
#1146
It does make sense, because Chuiu never wrote in alliteration before. There is also something else that you seem to miss, namely that these sentences don't even make sense. There are certain "odd words out" in there, that don't belong in at all, like: "actively accusing an abrasion abhorrent and animating" - this makes no sense whatsoever. Same with "as man made most merrily memories the milestone materializing." Or "inflated Caller into inextricable." And both "Nastily needling nuggets" as well as "narrowed nukes nearer" don't really make any sense either.

The rest of the clues can be transcribed and interpreted as basic actions, like "moves closer, moved away, attacked, defended, died, etc...", but unless I really missed something, the ones I quoted make no sense to me whatsoever, and thus stand out oddly.
Mynock
Profile Joined September 2002
4492 Posts
November 07 2008 00:49 GMT
#1195
OK, let's go with the plan then, and then try and break down the voters again and again until we can herd the mafia closely enough.

For the time being, I'll go with the plan and vote to lynch Ace.
Mynock
Profile Joined September 2002
4492 Posts
November 07 2008 00:51 GMT
#1197
Obama was a good choice. Keep that one.
Mynock
Profile Joined September 2002
4492 Posts
November 07 2008 00:53 GMT
#1198
And people, don't follow my example - don't answer Ace's posts, don't even read them! They're not even there.

After he's dead, we can have all the psychoanalysis we want and probably get some other suspects as well.
Mynock
Profile Joined September 2002
4492 Posts
Last Edited: 2008-11-07 04:15:57
November 07 2008 04:14 GMT
#1247
On November 07 2008 13:11 bumatlarge wrote:
SEE ACE IS COVERING IT UP!

I exchanged Ace pms during the whole folca/him episode, and I had the honor of him replying to the wrong person.

Just vigi the man for a free mafia.


You don't reply to a PM and send it to the wrong person. If you reply, you already have the person in the address-bar, so you have to manually change it in order to "accidentally" send it to somebody else.
Mynock
Profile Joined September 2002
4492 Posts
November 07 2008 04:17 GMT
#1249
Just Ace having his fun... I told you to dismiss everything he says... All those role-claims he did included.
Mynock
Profile Joined September 2002
4492 Posts
November 07 2008 04:25 GMT
#1252
Doesn't matter - it all goes through Ace on the other side, of that I'm quite confident. If bum was Mafia, he wouldn't go on a commando-mission like that by himself.

It's interesting you should bring this up tho - as much as I'm suggesting everyone to ignore Ace's posts, they do hold some information value, but I will only reveal my findings after Ace is eliminated, since I want to avoid any confusion he might sow in the meanwhile.
Mynock
Profile Joined September 2002
4492 Posts
November 08 2008 21:28 GMT
#1335
Alright people, listen up: I've got information from a detective regarding the last vote tally, and it seems that out of the people who voted for decafchicken, 2 are mafia.

Another person should soon confirm the same message.

Now, we obviously can't be 100% that the information is correct, but I think it's somewhat safe to assume it is, since role-claiming, especially an important role like a DT, would be a pretty stupid move by mafia.

I'm somewhat busy atm, so I will post more later (including some psychoanalysis of Ace's posts ).
Mynock
Profile Joined September 2002
4492 Posts
November 09 2008 00:02 GMT
#1370
I did this so that we avoid another Folca.

There is no reason for me to hide the information, nor for the other guy who the supposed DT PMed to withhold it either. The DT did not do a role-check, and that is why we should both confirm. The DT also made a pretty blunt move by doing this leap of faith, but once he did, there is no turning back. I would have preferred him to stay still and wait it out a little bit, but since he did come out to 2 of us, I want to save his skin over mine.

While it saddens me you'd think I haven't considered the possibilities, I hereby assure you that I have indeed. Let it go, and consider the current situation. The more information we have, the better. Just make sure not to take any info for 100% true.
Mynock
Profile Joined September 2002
4492 Posts
November 09 2008 01:26 GMT
#1374
Mandalor: Sure, he did say that. And that was not what made me do it. He PMed two people based on pretty much a guess (he had no time to role check us anyway), and I know he hit at least 1 townie. What we have from all of this is information. Nothing more, nothing less.

Now let me ask you a question: what is it that makes you think I have now become a target? If anything, I am now safer than any time. I was thinking the mafia would put me on the crosshair soon already, because let's face, a rationally thinking townie is more of a help for Town than a raving one like you. Sure, you might think in the best interest of us, but you're not helping. But the current situation is useful for us.

Let me explain. Indeed, in case I was targeted anyway, and am now even more of a target, that plays into our hands, since now Town knows of a possible Mafia target. Means the medics can actually base their next move on something instead of randomly protecting people. Make the Mafia guess, will there be a medic or not? I dunno. Do they? Nope.

Second, you don't have to take this info with face value. I said exactly what's there to be said, nothing more. The DT might or might not be legit. But he seems increasingly legit to me (I won't go into details here). Please understand this: I WANT the mafia to target me, it's fine. My life is just a green one, worth not more than any other townies. What difference to you does it make if I make myself a target? You'd rather it be a blue?

This way, Town knows more, we are at an advantage. I can't stress this more often: KEEP THE MAFIA BUSY. We do NOT GAIN ANYTHING by hiding information. We're all in the clear here, the Mafia has to hide all they know.

Now, if the DT is mafia, then all of this is pretty stupid. Town won't go on lynching people based on this. But it might come useful later, when we have more information.

I repeat it once more, I am now safer than before. The mafia might hit me and fail because of a medic. It might think the situation raises suspicion towards me and not hit me at all. My chances of survival are now higher, and if I die, it might let somebody else live, maybe a blue.

So cool yourself off and think before you post, I have no intention of explaining things so thoroughly next time.
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