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OK, I admit that showtime was an idiot and the chatroom story made very little sense anyway. The only reason I half-believed it was that Ace had been backing showtime up. I don't know what Ace is thinking, though, so since he hasn't brought it up since showtime died... I'd change my vote, but the final vote count is in.
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On April 08 2008 10:43 NatsuTerran wrote:
I really don't think Caller is a mafia suspect. Just because there is stuff involving phones doesn't mean it's a clue. Chuiu just puts it in for the story. The same goes for martial arts clues. Last game Chuiu said he simply likes kicking. Otherwise yeah I like the idea of top suspects voting for one person just so we can see how many of our clues are lining up.
It's not just phones; there were some references to lead, I think. Cf., e.g., this post.
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What the hell, Ace! Maybe it's your fault, maybe not, but you've done nothing but screw over the town this game. Don't check out the Ghar clue, make us lynch wurm, take the lynch off the suicide bomber so we lynch a townie instead, apparently leak information (deliberately or not) that leads to Mafia figuring out half the roles! I'm through taking direction.
Plexa's list seems to be the best thing we've got now.
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On April 10 2008 22:41 HeRoS)Pink wrote:
araav is a confirmed townie, showtime! said it before dying, theres no reason to lynch him
Showtime! said a lot of things, most of them idiotic and/or trying to make himself look important. Ace himself has already "confirmed" at least one mafioso as a townie. I consider Showtime!'s "confirmation" worth absolutely nothing.
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thought better of my post; pointless to criticise over spilt milk
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On April 11 2008 04:27 Ace wrote:
Just because I don't tell YOU anything it doesn't mean I don't know what's going on. No, but the fact that you've been wrong about many of the things you have told us seems to indicate that.
And since dead people can't post, I'm forever voting qrs to be lynched in the hopes that he dies and shuts the fuck up.
That pretty much speaks for itself, doesn't it?
But I thought it over and you do have a point; there's not much gained by me bitching about your leadership. And although you've done pretty badly overall, I have no reason to think that I would have been any better. I edited out that second post of mine, and I won't bring the subject up again. I will shut the f--- up, in other words. (You can keep voting for me if you like: hopefully it won't affect whom we lynch.)
On the subject of L, I was convinced at first, but once I actually looked at the numbers, they don't seem to add up. As LTT pointed out, there are a lot more than 12 nails.
Edit: And if you're counting the nails that hit him, there are only 8.+ Show Spoiler +Down the hall New104 was starting to get worried, rather he was starting to get a little thirsty himself. Empyrean was taking his time, he thought, so that must mean he's brewing a fresh pot. He got up to go get some coffee himself when he noticed five nails on the ground, he walked slowly over to them to investigate. As he was bending over to take a closer look Cottonmouth approached from behind and stabbed a nail into his back. He fell to the ground and Cottonmouth used the opportunity to stab six more nails into him. New104 was cringing in pain but he knew he had to defend himself, he started getting up but met gaze with a strange man on his way up. King Brown Snake slapped him back to the ground and started beating him as he lay there. New104 wasn't anywhere near dead at this point, but his adrenaline was flowing and he used the sudden surge in strength to knock King Brown Snake to the ground and get up himself. He dodge three more nails flying at him and got out to the hallway. Noticing a mafia walking down from the break room he started heading down the opposite direction to the armory. Cottonmouth was in the hallway now and was about to throw another nail at New104 when The Wolf interrupted him. "You just need to hit the right spot" he said as he threw the nail down the hallway, it landed square in the back of New104's head and he convulsed as he dropped to the ground, dying less then a minute later.
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After thinking over the evidence, I'm going to vote for suresh0t. I think he's the Wolf. Here are my reasons:
1) We don't know a whole lot about the Wolf, but one thing seems to be clear: he hits his targets (sure shot). Of course the most blatant example of that is: The Wolf interrupted him. "You just need to hit the right spot" he said as he threw the nail down the hallway, it landed square in the back of New104's head and he convulsed as he dropped to the ground, dying less then a minute later. That's the only one I would regard as a strong clue, but looking at the other times we've met the Wolf, they check out as well:
The Wolf approached "Sorry Chuiu, I gotta do this I hope you understand" as he pulled out a gun and made his mark on Chuiu's head.
He met gaze with The Wolf who was carrying some more debris from the building. Caller rolled to his right trying to dodge an attack from The Wolf but wasn't fast enough and took a vicious blow to the chest. He rolled to the side and started searching around for a weapon of his own as he jumped up from the ground. Nothing around, Caller tried dodging the next attack but King Brown Snake was on him again and the blow pierced through his skull. note: King Brown Snake gets in Chuiu's way, but the attack is from the Wolf Neither Chuiu nor Caller can dodge the Wolf's attack. (The other mafia missed plenty, and sometimes the victims survive for a while.) As I said, though, it's the first quote which really stands out. A nail thrown down the hall, killing instantly? I mean, come on, if that's not a sure shot, than nothing is.
2) Someone pointed this out a long time ago: suresh0ts signature, "Please forgive me for questioning divinity, it's an ugly job but I think I'm up for it", fits with "Sorry Chuiu, I gotta do this I hope you understand." (faux-apologizing for attacking an authority-figure)
3) His posts? Pretty bland. His votes: goes with the bandwagon or abstains. Not proof of anything on its own, but certainly what I would consider consistent with a mafioso trying to lie low.
4) For what it's worth, he's on the Mandalor list.
5) This is the clincher. We've all been wondering about those nails, right? Check out what suresh0t is holding in his profile pic:
That's right. A hammer.
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On April 11 2008 10:13 HeRoS)Pink wrote:
Suresh0t is my 3rd suspect, after Siefu and L, all those things were said previously but the town is inactive as hell theres like 2-3 poeple finding clues and then we have out of nowhere (who doesnt post a lot) making post to defend themselves which is weird.
Yeah, sorry, I thought the hammer was something new, but looking back, I see that Plexa had already alluded to it. Anyway, regardless of who found which clues, the stuff pointing to suresh0t is starting to add up, no? As opposed to the very strained interpretation of 12, since the numbers don't really add up to that.
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Since my last post got buried after a minute here's the summary version of the clues that connect the Wolf to suresh0t:
1) Doesn't miss. 2) Tells Chuiu something that is very similar to suresh0t's sig. 3) Nails. suresh0t is holding a hammer in his profile pic.
Also, 4) suresh0t is on the Mandalor list and 5) he's been posting very lightly and bandwagoning or abstaining in votes.
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^You have a reasonable excuse for abstaining--I wouldn't vote to lynch you just for that. All I say is that it is consistent with what a mafioso would probably want to do. As for the nails, I don't agree with you that they necessarily point to Cottonmouth. They were lying around: any of the mafiosi mentioned in the post might have left them there.
On April 11 2008 10:40 Camlito wrote:Show nested quote +On April 08 2008 16:52 Camlito wrote:
I'd like to emphasize this once more:
We have the following certain information:
EITHER one out of
- imDerek
- Evilmonkey
- Alventenie
is mafia, OR two out of
- Chezinu
- useLess
- aZnvaLiaNce
- fusionsdf
are mafia.
From among the second list, only one of useLess and aZnvaLiaNce can be mafia - not both -, and only one of Chezinu and fusionsdf can be mafia.
At worst, we have a 1/7 chance to get a mafia from among these, a stunning 2/4 at best, so i emphatically suggest we take this path in our investigations. Keep your eyes open for evidence against any of these guys!
My gut feeling says it's either useLess and fusionsdf or Evilmonkey, but it's just that: an unfounded gut feeling.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
We should really look at these lists more, as there is a much better chance.
As i said before, useLess has a high chance of being mafia, as one of the clues i remember referred to a mafia being tossed aside, which indicates he is rather "useless". Ok 3rd time i will post this. Unless im missing something or this is a joke, this should be looked at. See where it sais "chezinu or fusionsdf" can be mafia? CHEZINU IS NOW DEAD! I don't know if people missed this, or i am an idiot, or both - but this should be looked at.
(original post)
It's a good point. Are we sure that all those detective checks were from real detectives? (I suppose that if Ace doesn't tell us otherwise, we should assume so.)
I'll cast my second vote for fusion.
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On April 11 2008 11:11 fusionsdf wrote:
Can you go over how you got this more clearly, because at best, it seems like either me and chezinu were both mafia, or one of the list of - imDerek
- Evilmonkey
- Alventenie
is mafia Either one of you and Chezinu was Mafia and one of useless/aznvaliance was mafia as well, or one of the other three (going by those lists: I didn't see when they were originally posted). The thing is: whether you are Mafia or not, lynching you (out of the six) gives us the most information.
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On April 11 2008 11:43 Amber[LighT] wrote:Show nested quote +On April 11 2008 11:32 fusionsdf wrote:On April 11 2008 10:56 Amber[LighT] wrote:On April 11 2008 10:23 fusionsdf wrote:On April 11 2008 10:06 Amber[LighT] wrote:
No one finds it ironic that the suicidebomber killed our last detective?! almost like taunting us. At this point I think we have to assume that the mafia has at least a partial list of rolled towniesEspecially since they've been ignoring active townies for inactive ones, something that doesnt make sense as part of standard mafia strategy. How?! This makes no sense to me. We aren't posting these people's names all over the forum, unless I missed that post. araav + irc So why aren't we targeting him? Did we decide it was okay to kill off all the players with special roles? Even if he's a townie that's shitty to do.
Because we don't know what happened. araav says it wasn't him. Ace sort of maybe says that the blues weren't in the channel, or only some of the blues were in the channel, I don't know.
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It's easy to manipulate statistics. For example, you write, "Keep in mind that none of us are in the mandalor list, so the odds of any of us being mafia is about 1/10." That has nothing to do with it. 1/10 would be the odds if all we knew about was the mandalor list. But we have other information.
Either one mafioso voted in both lists or two mafioso voted: one in each. That means either the trio of ImDerek/evilmonkey/alventenie contains one mafioso or all are innocent. If they are innocent, you are Mafia and one of useless/aznvaliance is mafia.
ImDerek: 1/6 chance of being mafia (1/2*1/3)
evilmonkey: 1/6
alventenie: 1/6
fusion: 1/2 (1/2 *1)
useless: 1/4 (1/2* 1/2)
aznvaliance: 1/4.
edit: I agree it seems likely that there was some kind of leak. Ace already said that at least some of that was Mandalor. Maybe other fake blues picked up information as well. If it was araav, shouldn't Ace be pushing for his lynching? Then again, Ace hasn't been acting that rationally recently, so I don't know.
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To be fair to Plexa, he came up with the number 12 before he could think of anyone to link it to. Even so, it seems like a very weak clue to me. The daggers I could maybe buy, but the nails just don't add up. 16 mentioned, 10+1 thrown/stabbed, 7+1 hit. Where do you see 12?
We shouldn't split our votes so much that a non-candidate gets lynched (e.g. me--6 votes; evidence: "I want him to shut up"  ). I still think that more clues point to suresh0t than to anyone else. My second vote is for fusion atm, but I'll change it if necessary.
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^fusion, you're twisting the stats. The Ghar/Ace lists give us more detailed information than the Mandalor list. Yes, 7/63 people are mafia, but 1 or 2 of those 7 are one of you 6.
You might as well say, "Of the billions of people in the world, what are the odds that I'm a mafioso?"
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I've read all your posts. Even you admit that there are clues pointing at you. What should I do, take your word that you're innocent?
If you get lynched and flip green, I hereby apologize now.
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There's also the sig. My take on the nails? Maybe Cottonmouth picked up the nails that Wolf had left lying around. Or maybe you're not the Wolf after all, but you are Cottonmouth. Or maybe the nails don't point at you. I'm not sure that you're Mafia, just there's more evidence for you than for anyone else, IMO.
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On April 15 2008 09:53 BlindAlbino wrote:
hahaha = ) my hand has been dealt
Wow, was that a confession?
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Well, we know who our next lynch is. Guess he won't need a blindfold.
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On April 15 2008 12:07 MTF wrote:Show nested quote +On April 15 2008 12:04 qrs wrote:On April 15 2008 09:53 BlindAlbino wrote:
hahaha = ) my hand has been dealt Wow, was that a confession? Well, it's not quite like he had a chance with the amount of evidence against him. :p Nice work spotting those clues, by the way. It was obvious once you pointed it out, but no one had seen it.
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EPT![[image loading]](http://teamliquid.net/userfiles/22041.jpg?1188493959)
