EPTHe really seems to be the safest bet right now.
TL Mafia 2 [GG] - Page 28
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Puosu
6984 Posts
He really seems to be the safest bet right now. | ||
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LTT
Shakuras1095 Posts
On March 19 2008 02:28 Ace wrote: Actually I'm hoping a lot of people will do it, because that way all of us get to see what kind of thinking patterns everyone else uses. I posted the quote just so you guys know exactly where his quote comes from, not because I think he is Mafia at all. 8 people in his way, and 8 enemy divisions is a very far reach right now. I think it is far more likely that Chuiu was just tired and didn't have time/didn't want to come up with clues for all 20 mafia. There are 20 mafia total. 12 codenames were used in the day post. I interpreted the 8 people in his way as the 8 mafia not named. | ||
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randombum
United States2378 Posts
1. Again I do have far too much time over 10 hours a day to spend on this. (I likely will not spend all 10, but depending on how much I'm needed IE if in the first night we kill 12 mafia.) 2. Tracil a mafia vet has pointed out that double lynchings are good for the town. And they are, here is my belief of them: In a game this big the hardest thing is finding out who is mafia. Information is needed for lynching mafia correctly. More lynches will almost always give information for the town to try to decipher. More information leads to mafia lynches the next day. 3. As CDR pointed out my lynching/voting for last game was immaculate. He points out that he is hesitant because I did not vote the first few days (where town got it wrong), but that is incorrect I ABSTAINED from voting because I did not find sufficient evidence for those getting lynched. My good voting skills is a good base to judge me because I will likely lead the town to victory. 4 This is more of plea than a real reason, but I have built up a lot of enemies with my pms, and unless I get bodyguard protection I'm fearful that the mafia will target me, or vigilantes who are mad at me. I shall now go on to point out what other leading candidates have had to say. On March 18 2008 16:08 Ghar wrote: + Show Spoiler + I'm running for mayor. There's not much to say in regards to why I'm a better candidate than everyone else , but here's why I'm not a worse candidate than any you're thinking of voting. The only guaranteed way to know I'm not mafia or anyone else is to have a detective check me up. But at the moment that's not feasible, so all claims of not being mafia are moot until the election is done it seems. I don't know any of you guys because I'm new. But that shouldn't be a disadvantage because people you know could just as easily be mafia. My thoughts on how to throttle the mafia, for even if I'm not elected mayor: - A detective should investigate me should I get the job. Once cleared that the mayor is not mafia, the detective should PM the mayor the role the mayor originally got as evidence he is detective, of course it doesn't make for strong proof, but should the mayor have an exotic role, then its pretty strong evidence that the detective is a detective if he got the role correct. From there a team can be developed, people with roles should PM the mayor, and he sends detectives to investigate them to be sure. Only mafia would fake roles, so investigating them serves as hard proof of their legit role, or will reveal a mafia faking a role. Sure this wastes the detective's valuable limit of 2, but its served a good purpose than a blind investigate once the mayor is investigated. Jacks should be recruited first. Once this network is built, then the detective privately relays their findings to the mayor who announces findings while safe from mafia hit so medics are not needed and assuring the anonymity of the detective. This is just a brief idea of some of the plans I have as mayor. I'm happy to answer any questions or queries. Feedback on my plan is also appreciated. Candidate Ghar. Lets kill mafia. Your plan involves building up trust where people send information to the mayor just like hotzhot did last game. That is good, that is also my plan as I stated earlier before roles were given. Only your way of determining yourself as a townie is not as efficient as hotzhots' was. Either a detective has to waste his scan confirming you are indeed townie, or he has to publically declare himself as detective and say you are not a townie. Thereby getting the detective murdered and you lynched costing the town. This is no problem if you are townie (well a wasted DT skill) But there being no real way to determine townie on the first night so your point on detectives finding mayor is moot. On March 18 2008 16:31 araav wrote: + Show Spoiler + Here we go! Voting araav for mayor 1. I am the oldest here (from profiles) 2. will double lynch after several rounds only. 3. If I happen to be pardoner, and not mayor (get the second highest votes), will pardon the first day lynches, unless the case is really VERY logical 4. I hate how stupid Steve was last game 5. this 1. I do not see how being the oldest makes you any better at being mayor. Sure there is wisdom with age, but most people on TL have gone past adolescence and are rather intelligent. They do not need an older person telling them what to do. 2. I do not see how double lynching later into the game helps the town. If the town has reasons to suspect two people and asks for the double lynch will you not do it? 3. Again, if the town wanted him dead who are you to deny the down of their votes. Its like saying: "Hey I don't respect your opinion, this man lives" 4. Again, I do not see how this is relevant to being mayor. 5. That is a nice list, and perhaps I would have done it had I been awake when sonuvbob asked for it. However it leaves out pictures which was what chuiu based some of his clues off of (zdd grim reaper) Also, that list is already available on the first page. On March 18 2008 20:53 SoMuchBetter wrote: + Show Spoiler + On March 18 2008 20:45 Bockit wrote: My thoughts... randombum: He showed his skills in the previous game (one of the vigilantes who did an amazing job), his voting pattern was good (according to a quote earlier in the thread, I haven't checked maybe I should) and I actually liked the mass PM, not because of the content but because of the effort involved in actually doing that. It shows he's dedicated, and that's something we need for the mayor. there is no effort involved in mass PM's. to prove a point i PM'd everyone on the page where his pm was posted with my parody of randombum's PM in like 10 seconds flat. if anyone is curious, my pm looked like this + Show Spoiler + Hello. Now i know what you're thinking. What's a flawed man such as myself doing PMing mankid's monument to pure unkempt overflowing testosterone, dashing good looks and large phalli, yourself (pictured below). ![[image loading]](http://img163.imagevenue.com/img.php?image=11333_you_122_1093lo.JPG) I want you to give me a chance as the mayor of Liquida. A. I've been around TL.net longer than randombum, making me a more valuable member of the community than he is. B. I will always double lynch if town asks (i'm told this is a good thing) C. My post count is really big. D. I took the time writing this PM because randombum made one, and I personally think I'm cooler. Oh yeah, and spam in thread or something like that. Thanks, SoMuchBetter I don't know how you do it, but I had to do it rather slowly, clicking names-pm-type in subject-copy Paste. The process itself is rather easy, but multiply it by about 150 and a 5 second thing can take 12 minutes. I didn't even do it that fast because it took over 40 minutes maybe I'm just slow? Regardless it showed effort from me. Far more than it took for you to say: "hey look I so great I can do twice what he did in 1/20th the time! More importantly, you care less for being mayor than making fun of me. That is neither detrimental to the town, nor is it very polite. On March 18 2008 19:33 Empyrean wrote: + Show Spoiler + I just woke up! I'm running for mayor as well. I have previous mafia experience, and have a good idea of how mafia like to conduct things. Furthermore, I'll take everyone's opinion into consideration, as well as analyze everything myself. The most important reason, and this is kind of risky saying it, but I am a detective. If I'm elected mayor, I'll be guaranteed to be safe from mafia attacks so I can publish my detective results daily, giving us a large boost. If you want, I can ask some easy questions confirming people's roles so they can back me up. The possibility of a Detective Mayor is something in the town's favor. Also, if you don't vote for me now, mafia will target me first night and the town will be down a detective without me even asking anything :[ Empyrean is hurting the town more than he is helping by declaring he is a DT. Think about it. Either he actually is and the mafia now know who to stop (sabotage) or kill if he is not elected. HOWEVER, he also could be a lying mafia. The only way to prove that is if OTHER detectives come out wait! WE are the detectives thereby killing EMP but costing us all our DT's. You risked one of the town's greatest roles for a selfish reason. (getting elected when you cannot prove you are DT) Lastly, ACE you have a lot of posts so I will not try to spoiler all of them merely debate your points. Your bodyguard plan is good actually. Very good. The only flaw would be inactive bodyguards, OR mafia killing a few bodyguards b4 they can confirm they recieved the PM. Thats no likely so it should work. Actually, there's nothing really wrong I find with you. I would be more than happy to be mayor/pardoner with you. | ||
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Falcynn
United States3597 Posts
a)it's easier to keep track of everything b)people who are too lazy to look through all the pages have a resource for all the important things they need to know, so it's not as overwhelming. Anyways, now that I've gotten that out of the way I'm also gonna join in on voting for Ace, since while any mayor should incorporate this plan. The fact that Ace brought it up shows experience, intelligence, and township (I mean it's doubtful a mafia would bring up a plan like this). | ||
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Showtime!
Canada2938 Posts
On March 19 2008 02:15 Last Romantic wrote: I rather like the Bodyguard plan. It's quite a solid way to ensure mayor's legit/not legit-ness. BTW, Mynock, SonuvBob is a blue-name Admin. He's not news. He just likes to be a confusing mofo like that. Why'd someone vote for me <<; I'm not even campaigning. I already voted, but in retrospect I would have changed my vote to either araav or Empyrean No, it isn't. The Mafia could just do the opposite. The Mayor could play them all for fools regardless. Who in their right mind would lie in a mass PM like that? It's stupid. Whomever is elected is going to have to switch up their strategy on the fly with very few people knowing. | ||
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Ghar
Australia62 Posts
But you missed the full quote. Ghar's quote refers to this situation: (This is a direct cut-paste from http://www.nevadadailymail.com/blogs/stevemoyer/entry/16036/) "When the Marines were cut off behind enemy lines and the Army had written the 1st Marine Division off as being lost because they were surrounded by 22 enemy divisions. The Marines made it out inflicting the highest casualty ratio on an enemy in history and destroying 7 entire enemy divisions in the process. It generated three versions of a Chesty Puller quote. I'm not sure which is accurate but they are all quotable." One of the quotes is the one in the sig. Did I miss something, or did they change their rationale from 8 directions vs 8 people. to 7 enemy divisions vs 8 people. If you like changing your rationale so much. Maybe because they were marines, means they used guns, and Dapperdan was killed with a gun. So that must mean it links me. Because no one else could be linked to something so unique like the number 8 or guns, or where snakes come from for that matter. | ||
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Klive5ive
United Kingdom6056 Posts
1.) Clues and discussions about them 2.) What people post and who they vote for, but more importantly what they DONT post Number 2 is going to help you a lot more than #1 in the long run. I've already got a list of everyone who's posted in this thread, who they voted for, and comments about everyone's thinking patterns. Anyone who followed the last game knows that hunches are exactly what we don't need. The way to win this game is to vote predominately on the decryption of clues. The Mafia would be foolish NOT to run for Mayor. The position in the hands of a mafioso is incredibly powerful. Even if he carried out the "bodyguard plan" a Mafia Mayor would have great power. It is certainly worth trading a single mafia member for. The pardoner position is also very powerful in the wrong hands. Please don't vote for Ghar because the clues may be pointing to him. Also his "detective plan" if he was Mafia would allow him to kill all the Dectectives. I still like Araav's conservative approach the best. We need to wait a bit and have lots of clues to look at before we double lynch. But I don't like his idea of pardoning the first votes. Randombum is also a good voting option because he campaigned before the start of the game. I have no reason to suspect Empyrean is lying and he probably is a detective so he could also be worth a vote. Whoever you vote for, don't let it be Ghar. | ||
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Klive5ive
United Kingdom6056 Posts
On March 19 2008 02:37 Ghar wrote: I wasn't going to speak out in my defense regarding the clues because there's no point interpreting clues at this stage. But this is ridiculous. Did I miss something, or did they change their rationale from 8 directions vs 8 people. to 7 enemy divisions vs 8 people. If you like changing your rationale so much. Maybe because they were marines, means they used guns, and Dapperdan was killed with a gun. So that must mean it links me. Because no one else could be linked to something so unique like the number 8 or guns, or where snakes come from for that matter. You say "their" like we worked together on our analysis, which we clearly didn't. Maybe his source was different to mine? Your argument is nonsensical. Another reason that you shouldn't be Mayor. | ||
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
But I won't debate that right now - that only leads to confusion among the Town and takes away from what we need to do right now - vote for a Mayor. Either way, you really have no solid arguments as to why Ghar shouldn't be Mayor. | ||
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
I'm serious, I want to hear it so that we can all analyze the plan in the open and work out any questions or flaws that can be exploited. | ||
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randombum
United States2378 Posts
Edit: The plan only works if the (mafia) mayor does something stupid and try to mess with the list. Edit: added (mafia) | ||
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Lysithea
Sweden204 Posts
On March 19 2008 02:13 Lysithea wrote: ... If Empyrean is a DT he could be very valuable as pardoner but it's something about the whole thing that just feels out of place. I'm tempted to vote for him, not for mayor but as pardoner. Wish we could have more campaigning from his side. My question to all of you is: would it be beneficial enough for mafia to even attempt the stunt empyrean is employing? Would it be reasonable? I'm asking cause I'm not sure whether to vote for Empyrean or someone else in the case of me voting for a pardoner spot. ... Reposting this part from my own post since I really want peoples thoughts on this. | ||
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BWdero
Netherlands476 Posts
On March 19 2008 02:59 Lysithea wrote: Reposting this part from my own post since I really want peoples thoughts on this. Didn't stop them from framing dr.dragoon. And also, why would a detective reveal himself so early? If he is telling the truth, he is almost certainly a mafia target right now. Costing us a valuable detective. | ||
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
1.) Remember what I said, all Bodyguards now know each other's ID + The Mayor. Once the Mayor is investigated, if no one speaks up obviously he has to be legit. I doubt any DT that investigates the Mayor and finds him guilty would stay quiet in fear of their death - that would be selfish and harm the Town. 2.) Even so, let's assume that NO detectives investigate the Mayor. Either way with 7 people and The Mayor, thats a lot of communication going on to find Mafia. At some point, and I'm hoping for this, the Bodyguards will have to question the Mayors decisions. Even better, they do this publicly. The Mayor has to defend certain actions, and if he is acting suspicious with no good reason something is up. In 1, whether or not the Mayor is innocent is going to be found out very fast. In 2, the Mayor in the case of being Mafia even if not found out has the added task of killing innocents while appearing to do good by 7 other people who also know each other, and that they are all 100% innocent (refer back to the plan to find out how). So how can a Mafia Mayor who follows the Bodyguard Plan still harm the Town? Possibly by trying to trick the Bodyguards into doing something horrible, but with 7 ppl that's going to be hard because that isn't enough for mob mentality to take over - and I doubt all of them would be that gullible. The plan works even if the Mayor doesn't mess with the list - we get a verified Mayor and his allies by the time day 2 starts. How is that not good enough? | ||
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L
Canada4732 Posts
My question to all of you is: would it be beneficial enough for mafia to even attempt the stunt empyrean is employing? Would it be reasonable? Pretending to be a detective to oust a detective and potentially get mayor is massively profitable for mafia. Nearly any disinformation is. That's obvious. They lose 5% of their numbers for a potentially game breaking position and take down a detective if they fail. | ||
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CDRdude
United States5625 Posts
fusionsdf--I don't know if he's a mafia or not, it's too early to tell. He did announce his candidacy before the game ever began though, so he probably enjoys the game a lot. In his favor, he apparently rightly guessed a lot of mafioso from game one. However, the catch is that he did it with Plexa. Small though the chance may be, this might be during time that Plexa would have otherwise devoted to writing TLFE's. Can we take that chance? Meh: His candidacy might be a joke, he seems to have zero votes, but it was a pretty good argument  randombum: I kind of liked his mass PM, it showed effort. I'm not so sure about his voting record in game 1 though. He voted with 100% accuracy (voted FS for mayor, and voted to lynch mafia the only times he voted). He seems to have quite the good record for rooting out mafia. I don't know if he's our number one choice for mayor, but it shows that he's putting some effort into it. SoMuchBetter: Ah, SMB. I didn't trust him at all last game, and he turned out to be a townie. Go figure. Also because of last game, whenever I think of SoMuchBetter, I think of a fat guy in a purple suit with a monocle. Last game, he kind of disappeared off the radar after failing his mayoral campaign, but that was probably because he didn't get elected. He also sent out mass PM's (apparently to like 10 people, rather than 130 though), with MSpaint in them (also before the role PM's), but he was pretty much copying randombum in them. Ghar: So far, all we know about him is that he registered for the forum for the mafia game, and that his plan of action is for all the detectives to PM him. I don't really like this, because the best scenario is a guy who knows who all the detectives are, with the addition of a few mafia. The worst scenario is a mafioso who is willing to sacrifice himself in return for denying the town a mayor and as many detectives as possibile. SunuvBob: After asking around a bit, he decided to run for mayor. I guess this shows that he isn't afraid of a bit of work looking through profiles, but at first he was asking others to do it for him. In his favor, he is a mod--I assume that he has methods of searching at his disposal that we do not (can you search for posts by a certain person? I don't know how). His platform is also excellent. araav: He has a fairly sensible platform, and he also went the extra mile by making a list of all of 130 profiles. I respect your hard work, but since he didn't play in the first round, I have no voting record to base stuff off of. Kuja900: I'm biased against him, because of his post. To Kuja900: please use punctuation. Ace: I missed his candidacy post the first time, but I'm liking his ideas. His bodyguard plan seems pretty damn good, much better than our elder=leader plan last game. His arguments are rational, and I'm liking that. Empyrean: Claims to be a detective, and is trying to force us to vote for him. Is it worth the risk? Why would a real detective come out of the closet so early? I'm distrustful of his early gambit, but if he isn't lying, then we might waste a golden opportunity. I just don't know. I hope that this (opinionated) guide to the candidates helps with your voting. ==edit== Forgot to add Empyrean. Oh, and I voted for Ace, in case you were wondering. | ||
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
On March 19 2008 02:59 Lysithea wrote: Reposting this part from my own post since I really want peoples thoughts on this. Ok here's my take - it would be a pretty good idea from a Mafia standpoint. 1.) Empryean did very well last game 2.) For some reason, people think the probability of him being Mafia again has changed when it really hasn't 3.) He claims a role that is important and can't be verified right now 4.) Most importantly, it adds confusion to the game 4 is the prime reason that if I were Mafia, it would be a great tool. People trust Empryean, and if another DT comes and investigates him well they'd be hard pressed to prove it - and now the Mafia knows another DT role with nothing else weighing in on their decisions aka an easy kill. Thats an element of confusion that takes away from the main focus, and the easiest way for the Mafia to win is to confuse the Townies. I'm not saying Empryean is Mafia, but that was a very risky move. There was no point in revealing his alleged role so early in the game. Maybe he's afraid that he'd be killed early and is innocent after all - and if that's the case for someone so smart he should have provided a better angle of campaigning. | ||
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Klive5ive
United Kingdom6056 Posts
On March 19 2008 02:59 Lysithea wrote: Reposting this part from my own post since I really want peoples thoughts on this. Yes it would be beneficial. The Mafia would be silly NOT to attempt a stunt of some kind. In a game this large, sacrificing a Mafia for Mayor is a worthwhile swap. On March 19 2008 02:59 Ace wrote: Klive, honestly you are posting complete horse shit right now. But I won't debate that right now - that only leads to confusion among the Town and takes away from what we need to do right now - vote for a Mayor. Either way, you really have no solid arguments as to why Ghar shouldn't be Mayor. Also, please explain to me how if a Mafia Mayor carries out the BodyGuard plan, he will wield great power. I'm serious, I want to hear it so that we can all analyze the plan in the open and work out any questions or flaws that can be exploited. First of all nice with the insult Ace, really mature. Then you go and contradict yourself " I won't debate that right now" followed by "please explain to me how if a Mafia Mayor carries out the BodyGuard plan, he will wield great power". I will answer the question, even though I think the answer is obvious. Merely because I think people should respond to direct questions for the game to run smoothly. It's most likely you didn't read my post properly, I said: "Even if he carried out the "bodyguard plan" a Mafia Mayor would have great power." I didn't say it would make him more powerful. Then of course being a Mafia he can abuse all his Mayor powers which to reiterate are: Instant Lynch when he is elected. Swinging votes towards townies using his increased voting power. Doubling lynching (he can declare when two townies are most likely to be voted), or he can just not use them at all, which is just as bad. It is probably worth sacrificing one of 20 mafia members JUST to get rid of double lynchings. Only the detectives will know for sure if the Mayor is indeed mafia and if they come out and say so then the Mafia take down at least one of them as well. I stand by my statement that Ghar is not a good choice due to the possible clues pointing to him, and his "detective" strategy. Now I also think Ace is not a good choice. | ||
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zeks
Canada1068 Posts
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Ghar
Australia62 Posts
Ghar: So far, all we know about him is that he registered for the forum for the mafia game, and that his plan of action is for all the detectives to PM him. I don't really like this, because the best scenario is a guy who knows who all the detectives are, with the addition of a few mafia. The worst scenario is a mafioso who is willing to sacrifice himself in return for denying the town a mayor and as many detectives as possibile. No, that's not it. Having detectives means I can verify vigilantes and jacks. Having detectives work together means efficient effort, each can ask Chuiu different questions about clues, check up on multiple lynch votes. Having vigilantes means they won't strike blindly, but with Detective aid. In the worse scenario, this applies to everyone, not just me. Because all the detectives will have investigated me. If I'm mafia, only one steps out and accuses me. If I'm the real deal, they are confirmed by their investigation, and then come to me. The detectives are not at risk. | ||
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