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Well, Dr. Dragoon isn't playing in a pro-town fashion at all. I got nothing new. I've tried to convince him and now it's up to him to change his mind.
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I changed my mind on clues after a bit; it's kind of dumb of me to just ignore them. By the same token, I won't be putting much faith in them. Still.
I went through both posts with one thing in mind; we're looking for members of the mafia. Therefore, rather than look at random stuff like 'it's valentines day soon' and connect it to scum, I decided to pay attention to the traits and actions demonstrated by the mafioso as they go about their business. Here we go. I'm not actually going out of my way to link these to particular people- but I did want to sort out what I thought *could* be actual clues on identity from the text. Any of these could be a red herring etc.
A lot of these have been mentioned before, I know. I'll post updates periodically if people uncover new things, and certainly I'll try to get one out after each clue post.
day 1
-One Missed a kick due to muddy boots, lost balance. (clumsy, misses)
-One has no patience for immaturity
-One stabs people, Chuiu was a thorn in his side.
-"You're never going to be trusted iaaaagh"- iaaaagh possible reference to name?
-DapperDan was a spy amongst them (friends with a member of the mafia?)
-One used Dan's own gun against him, was filled with blanks
-Pushed Dan from shadows (stealthy bastard)
-'That was low, even for you' , 'all is fair' (one mafioso has no qualms about his methods)
-One mafioso took a bow. (paying respects; theatrical bent)
day 2
-mahini was held down with great strength (strong dude, obviously)
-A serum was used on him (doctor/scientist/experimental guy)
-Mafia seem to be looking for a test subject of some kind
-Phone lines were cut
-killer of evan had the most precise control; his throat was slit
-one man trapped krohm in a sleeping bag and dropped him out a window (one guy has a weird way of killing people o-o)
-betaben was woken up before his death; he was killed by his head being shoved into a pot of boiling water (one mafioso is a sadist)
-artofmagic was sliced in two; some kind of powerful weapon was involved (this implies a large blade of some kind)
-another mafioso used a townies own gun against him (kara's) (a thief, perhaps?)
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Nightmare. Hmm.
Let's see. Nightmare claimed to trust me at one point, and yet he had a vote on SMB for mayor- one he didn't change even after this statement.
Nightmare also seems to advocate passive play in general; he encouraged Dragoon to 'lay low' when the heat was on him (this is suboptimal; when the heat is on you, that is the moment to really get talkative) and generally adopted a 'wait and see' approach with regard to how we determine lynch; basically, he said we should 'wait for more clues' rather than try to lynch mafia right now. Granted, this was day 1, when we *couldn't* lynch... but the phrasing of his posts didn't seem to indicate that.
Finally, he encouraged paramedics to go hit Live2Win. I said way earlier that we SHOULDN'T do this, and there are good reasons!
1) If a paramedic is protecting one of the mafia, their ability is actually useless; ergo, even though it may not actually be, it can *seem* scummy to encourage doc protection on specific targets.
2) Paramedics are supposed to keep people alive, which isn't going to happen if *the mafia know who the paramedics are targeting and thus hit other people.*
So, yeah. NightMare doesn't look that great. He's posted depressingly little... like so many others, however. Got any response, NightMare? I'm pretty miffed that you claimed to trust me but kept voting for SMB; this is a case of actions not lining up with words. Why'd you not vote for me?
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Whelp, yeah. Clues are vauge, don't rely on clues, don't treat them as insurmountable evidence.
Although I have to admit I was very sold on Dragoon. Nightmare, not nearly so much (I was actually surprised night came 'round before I got home today, so I never did vote for a second target. Was hoping to have a bit more time to think on it.)
So yeah. Townies, don't be selfish, y'know, like that. If anything, all it does is draw *more* votes. It's a team game. etc. etc.
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Yeah. Do keep in mind, people, that when you die, it's the ultimate validation of everything you've said; we'll know, at least, that you weren't trying to mislead us or anything upon seeing that you're a townie. :/
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Fishball: Why? If you're gonna tell us to lynch someone, you gotta say why...
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I probably did and forgot it was you that said whatever it was. The thread is kinda huge, and with 60+ people playing still...
Besides, no harm in reiterating.
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Caller: I'm around. I've received *yet more PMs* (I've said I don't want them a million times!) and I'm keeping mostly silent until day breaks.
I will say this, though; the most logical play at the moment is to lynch Shallow. I kinda hope that if that message WAS actually sent by Dragoon, he'd have said so before he got lynched.
If he didn't, well. That's going to suck for us.
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I haven't changed my mind on double lynch. It's to the town's advantage to double lynch because of the extra control afforded over getting kills. Being wrong this time doesn't actually change the odds.
Romance_us: People who talk are likely mafia to you? This makes logical sense?
It makes more logical sense to me that people who don't talk are more likely to be mafia, especially when they literally *do nothing for all of day 2* except vote Dr. Dragoon without reasoning (probably because he was the the most obvious lynch candidate at the time) and then swoop in in the aftermath to lay suspicion on the mayor, the pardoner, and anyone who 'talks lots' as if that's actually a bad thing.
Or, in other words, people who hang around until something goes wrong, and then jump in to play the blame game from the safe position of a non-participant.
Will be going through day 2 in more detail once day hits.
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I can't pardon myself. I'm as vulnerable as everyone else. ;_;
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There is a fairly obvious flaw in saying 'if I die, lynch x'.
If x is not scum, then mafia can, you know, kill you at night and rely on your last words to get x lynched. So. Yeah. Can't take 'em seriously.
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Even relying on clues would be better than random guessing.
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Logic prevails at last~
Shallow was a pretty smooth operator- if he hadn't pulled that stunt early game I seriously doubt I would have been glaring at him at all.
To respond to Caller...
Please READ MY POSTS. I WILL NOT enter correspondance via PM and said that already. I can confirm that he sent it and actually intended to reveal this post after day broke; you've done it for me. I've yelled about receiving PMs before. I will continue to do so. I find them inherently scummy; if you're mafia and in a PM conversation where everything is secret, you can potentially just kill the guy off before he can spill what you've said to everyone else.
Frankly, I find it way more scummy that you send me a PM, then set up this ridiculous argument that "Tracil didn't reply to me, ergo he's kinda scummy!" You haven't even read my posts if you think this is valid in the slightest.
As far as the Live2Win thing goes, well. I don't know if he's mafia or not, but in general, him defending me isn't a tell either way *unless* he flips scum. I didn't really associate defending me with being scummy... although it wouldn't be a bad position for scum to take, I suppose. Eh, I guess I'm naturally a bit biased.
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SUSPICIOUS DUDES.
1) Caller. He said "I am mafia!" earlier. That's really stupid. He's set up this PM thing about how me not replying to it apparently looks bad because I'm the type to discuss things... despite having already said that I don't want PMs and have generally reported them in the past (I intended to report this during daytime.) I don't really know about his case in Live2Win, as although it seems kinda wonky, Live2Win has done a couple things that stand out to me as well.
Obligatory Clue: He also has 'mud' in his profile quote, and I remember one mafioso having muddy boots way back! Coincidence?!
For now, I vote for Caller. Headsup, people, since we can change our votes there is actually no shame in voting fairly early. He also called for paramedics to protect him- DON'T DO THAT. Let them make up their own frigging minds.
2) People who seem to post as little as possible; i.e. those who only make token gestures and a small effort, and then go on to only state the bleedingly obvious. That's... a lot of people. So I can't REALLY be suspicious on these grounds alone, especially with the size of the game. General hint for late-game when there are less people- look at the guys who are lagging behind in conversation and not posting as much as others when discussion is going full-tilt.
3) FakeSteve. FakeSteve is mayor, he should be talking lots. But he's not! He's posting every now and again and seems to be exercising his mayoral powers as demanded, which is good. But... his lack of any kind of detective work of his own unsettles me greatly. I want to know what he thinks about recent events. I don't want to see him say crap like 'whether or not I'm town or scum is inconsequential, I'm not going to die.'
4) wurm. Wurm said at one point "Everyone is voting to lynch Dr. Dragoon again instead of analyzing the clues", but this post was *right after* a short debate on whether or not one of the clues did, in fact, point to Dr. Dragoon, so... this seemed a bit odd to me. However he does seem to be making large posts, which is pretty cool.
5) MasterofChaos: Isn't actually playing, but I hope he stops pretending.
6) clazziquai: Did this guy say *anything* except to tell Dr. Dragoon to die?
7) Falcynn reacted rather sharply when someone pointed out a clue that seemed to point to him; to be fair, other people were likewise treating it as remarkably solid. I just... didn't really think it was a big deal, but he seemed to overreact a bit. Not too sure here. Here's some quote.
On February 17 2008 05:03 Falcynn wrote:Show nested quote +On February 17 2008 04:51 Yogurt wrote:On February 16 2008 18:36 Vharox wrote:
"He closed the zipper and was complete in the capture of his prey"
Yet another clue referring to "prey"...
Aka falcynn... Aka mafioso :O damn nice find Ok, I feel I should defend myself before a crapload of accusations start pouring in. 1. An animal hunted or caught for food; quarry. 2. One that is defenseless, especially in the face of attack; a victim. 3. The act or practice of preying. Ok...so that didn't help, and I can't really understand Chuiu's choice of words in wanting to write prey instead of victim. However you said another clue refering to prey, and the only one I can think of that was mentioned was that whole "not a mouse was stirring" bit in day 1. That's usually a very common line to imply that a whole town/area/house/whatever is completely silent. So if you believe that Chuiu's choice of words would lead to me then there's really nothing I can argue about that since I have the only username in this game that has anything to do with hunting (except maybe to_miss_the_mark, but then that wouldn't make sense). However there isn't "another" clue referring to me. damn it...I'm seriously not thinking straight right now.
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I want to double lynch again, yada yada yada.
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General game note. As the quantity of people alive winds down and the amount of mafia kills left drops, there's one kind of roleclaim that could be very useful- that is, elders.
Elders have the power to double vote and are always town. By demonstrating their ability to cast multiple votes, they can effectively prove their townhood. Don't do this YET- you'll just get killed at night most likely- but LATER, perhaps when mafia only have 4-5 kills or so.
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Caller: You're right that I haven't been posting much as I should. Doubly unforgivable due to my ranting about discussion earlier. Sorry 'bout that.
The PM I didn't actually see until after night broke; either I didn't check between when you sent it and then, or I just didn't notice that I'd receieved it. I have not been so cool with PMs; my original intent was to reveal them on the spot, but since I received one claiming to be a bodyguard, I wanted to be a bit more cagey about who was sending me what. I certainly didn't want to reveal it during night, though, where town can't really do anything about it and mafia could use the opportunity to perhaps kill you and sow discord throughout town; basically, as discussion material, I felt it was better saved until the day broke again.
So. My play hasn't been perfect. However, I disagree with the contention that, if Live2Win is scum, it implicates me.
I can see the reasoning. But the points Live2Win stands out to me on are how his actions don't match up there; early in day 1 he was against me, trying to imply that my statements on how the game should be played are wrong/we should be cautious of Tracil. That kinda doubt-spreading sentiment. He retracted that; I assumed he'd been convinced.
The thing that still bugs me to the present is how he kept voting for SoMuchBetter- a *null* factor. He'd done pretty much nothing but say 'vote me!' In that I felt he was no better than FakeSteve. So I was surprised when Live2Win did not vote for me, but kept his vote where it was. An explanation was offered and it's... tenuous, I'll grant.
His play since day 1, though, has seemed pretty solid. Although.. ugh, now all these little things keep bugging me. For instance, when Dr. Dragoon was lynched, it felt pretty obvious that Shallow was likely scum, yet Live2Win seemed to react with great surprise upon today's dawn. Why? Genuine? I kinda lean towards it being faked, and yet, like I said, it's tenuous.
So. I'm not entirely critical of you for going after Live2Win. I just don't really think it'd point to me were he to flip scum.
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Hmm.
I don't think we ever really 'forgot' about Shallow; it just seems like Dr. Dragoon was way more likely to be scum than him. I, at least, would certainly have been voting for him today had he not been killed already. I think a lot of other people would have done the same.
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Hmm.
To the people who think Mafia would rather not keep a low profile: I disagree. Sure, it's *optimal* play for the mafia to discuss things and look like pleasant, rational townies will misdirecting all the lynches.
But it's *probable* play for the mafia to be relatively quiet, especially if they can get away with it. Lots of people aren't really talking and there's no way to differentiate a quiet townie from a quiet mafioso.
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Although to be honest? At the moment I'd rather vote for the people who are just tagging on to the Live2Win/Caller bandwagons without any rationale. Someone has suggested that 'it's probably one of live2win/caller/tracil is scum!' and while this *could* be true it isn't *necessarily* true. Just because two people argue doesn't mean either of them is scum.
Who hasn't really said anything on either case today, yet has a vote out there?
Amber[Light].
NotSorry (asdf if you're town it's not a good idea to lynch you just because you're wrong once, but it would be a good idea to lynch you if you don't say anything else -_-)
Folca
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Live2Win is absolutely right here-
Live2Win said...
People are hopping on the lynch train simply because they don't feel like looking into the clues and coming to a conclusion themselves. They scan over someone else's conclusion, half-agree with it and lynch whoever that person lynch.
and, well. This isn't good. You should really always know *why* you're voting for someone, and say so- even if you're following someone elses opinion.
At the moment, though? Caller has, for the most part, seemed.. better. Mrf. I no longer want to vote for Caller, because I'm voting for... NotSorry! Out of the three I listed, more clues from the descriptive text point to him, and he hasn't really engaged in discussion. The same could be said for a lot of people. But I'm going to take a stand against silence.
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DOUBLE LYNCH WOULD BE AWESOME ANYTIME NOW.
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Caller: Try not to exclude the possibility that you're a townie and your accusers are likewise of town. Aditionally, when you say 'I am mafia' is a reaction test... well.
How DO you expect people to react to it? :/
You're ignoring the fourth possible scenario, which is that all the major players in this argument are townies tripping over themselves. I find that a rather bizzare thing to overlook, if you're in the business of listing possibilities. The fact is that you're not a neutral observer and you just did a rather poor job of putting yourself in their shoes.
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Don't think too hard about why you're not dead, people. It literally means nothing. Sure, they could be leaving you alive because your opinion is wrong. Or maybe it's right, and they're trying to trick you and everyone else into thinking it's wrong! Or..so on and so forth. It's not even worth drawing attention to. By extension, don't act as if paramedic protection is or is not going to apply to you, or should have applied to you, and that because you think it MIGHT have, that's some kind of evidence. I'm looking at you, Live2Win.
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Yes. That might have been what happened. Or one or both of you is mafia and trying to sucker paramedics into being useless.
Don't call for paramedics.
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Mmm. I'm not sure overthinking is quite the right word.
Part of my general game theory is that people who talk often and frequently are generally more likely to be town than scum, and if they ARE scum, it'll come out in what they say. Conversly, people who are silent are awful for town.
So... I'm still pretty suspicious of Caller, and actually his latest posts look kinda bad. But I think it would be better if we took some time to yell at people not talking at all.
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Emp, Shallow's fate was pretty much sealed with Dragoon died.
In light of that, the obvious play for anyone with a rational mindset is to attack Shallow. I don't think going after him on that note is a tell in either direction, because it wouldn't take much for the mafia to realise that. So, yeah, I agree with you here.
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It's easy to call everyone else stupid when you yourself do nothing.
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EPT
