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Sweet Summer Mafia - Page 149

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Koshi
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
Belgium38799 Posts
June 11 2024 07:19 GMT
#2961
On June 11 2024 14:47 Oatsmaster wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 11 2024 14:46 Trfel wrote:
On June 11 2024 14:45 Oatsmaster wrote:
Idk man trfel you were chomping at the bit to lynch vivax this morning. He’s on the dmb wagon too.
Maybe try reading a little? Just a little?

I'm actually serious, if we are able to lynch scott31337 here and keep sandroba alive, I think that's absolutely worth doing.

Why do you want to keep Sandro alive so much actually? He’s been utterly useless to town

Oats. You are right about sandro.
I 100% am with you.

But we have to rethink if we are right on dmb and rayn.
I had a good night of sleep.
Koshi
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
Belgium38799 Posts
June 11 2024 07:22 GMT
#2962
On June 11 2024 16:17 Trfel wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 11 2024 16:16 Koshi wrote:
Ahno you understand it. You just dont think it is good.
Do you think it is good still?

Yes. It obviously does not make sandroba lock mafia.
BUT
In a fast catch up. It is weird that sandroba sees something that makes him go: "Hey rsoultin and Oats could be a mafia team"

And then not much later goes:

Town:
Oats

Mafia:
Rsoultin

It just contradicts this earlier post you made in a catchup of so many pages. If it is throwaway, why post it? He is limiting his post count and still contradicts in that low post count.
I had a good night of sleep.
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43270 Posts
June 11 2024 07:22 GMT
#2963
On June 11 2024 16:14 Trfel wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 11 2024 14:11 Oatsmaster wrote:
On June 11 2024 13:58 Trfel wrote:
On June 11 2024 13:56 Oatsmaster wrote:
On June 11 2024 03:04 Trfel wrote:
On June 11 2024 02:59 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Sandrobas reads do not track. He just took the town consensus scumreads and put them in a list.

That in itself isnt wrong, but he has just talked anout how oats can be scum if rsoultin is scum, then rsoultin (koshi) is scum, but oats is not on the list.

Also case on rsoul being mafia is basically "i cant find reasons for her to be mafia"?????
Middle point is actually very interesting. Good find.

Okay nvm I did think you talked about Sandro more than this post in more specific terms but why is this a good point at the time of the post and no longer a good point?
I looked into this more later, when raynpelikoneet did his whole "best case in the thread" thing, and realized that this argument is based on a misinterpretation of sandroba's post.
On June 11 2024 05:59 Trfel wrote:
On June 11 2024 02:59 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Sandrobas reads do not track. He just took the town consensus scumreads and put them in a list.

That in itself isnt wrong, but he has just talked anout how oats can be scum if rsoultin is scum, then rsoultin (koshi) is scum, but oats is not on the list.

Also case on rsoul being mafia is basically "i cant find reasons for her to be mafia"?????
Okay, lemme break down the best case in the game.

First point, you even say isn't bad in and of itself.

Second point, I thought made sense, upon rereading sandroba's filter though that's not what he is saying. Sandroba's post #2446 means that he thinks Oatsmaster can't be mafia if rsoultin/Koshi is town. He just said it in a weird way. Then, separately, he thinks Oatsmaster is town. At a glance you can maybe see it as sandroba thinking that if rsoultin/Koshi is mafia, Oatsmaster is mafia, but I really really don't think that is what sandroba is saying.

Third point, huh? My best guess at what you are trying to say is that you are referring to this:
On June 11 2024 00:21 sandroba wrote:
On June 09 2024 17:00 Koshi wrote:
I am 100% convinced you are mafia. But I will lynch you last because your filter is huge.

Sandroba and Mocsta are both mafia and I think we agree on that.


Okay this actually makes me feel a lot better, since I think rsoul is to me much harder to pin down as mafia than Koshi. For Koshi if he is this bad he is mafia and this view makes him mafia 100%. There is absolutely no way Koshi comes in with fresh eyes, reads the same thread as me and comes to this conclusion.
Which isn't just a misinterpretation of sandroba's post but is blatantly ignoring the entire point?

You cannot possibly think this case holds any water whatsoever, much less being the best case in the game?


I really don’t get what the accuracy of the statement has to do with rayns alignment.
I guess I can go back and respond to this. If you don't agree that's fine but I'll try.

It's totally understandable for someone to misinterpret something and make a wrong claim and realize it and retract their claim. This isn't what raynpelikoneet did. When sandroba and I pointed out that he was misreading sandroba's post, instead of changing his view, raynpelikoneet modified his argument. See here:
Show nested quote +
On June 11 2024 06:11 raynpelikoneet wrote:
TLDR;

If sandroba thinks rsoultin is mafia and Oats is town, there is simply no reason to say Oats can be mafia with rsoultin.
Raynpelikoneet's initial argument:
- Sandroba said that if rsoultin/Koshi is mafia, Oatsmaster could be mafia (implying this is more likely). Then, sandroba said he thinks rsoultin/Koshi is mafia, but didn't think Oatsmaster is mafia
Becomes:
- Sandroba said a pointless association read, it's pointless because it only matters if someone is town, and sandroba thinks that person is mafia
The latter isn't wrong, but it's a much weaker argument. However, this change did not affect raynpelikoneet's read on sandroba or his confidence in this case. Town in this spot would re-evaluate given the new information.

Note that raynpelikoneet's third point is literally nonsense. Sandroba said "I have no idea how to read rsoultin so it helps that Koshi replaced in, here are the reasons Koshi is mafia: (reasons)" and took that to mean "Koshi is mafia because I have no idea how to read rsoultin" which is simply not what sandroba said?

The end result is you have a three point case where raynpelikoneet literally said the first point doesn't mean anything on its own, the second point is quite weak, and the third point is objectively not true. But raynpelikoneet still believes it, very strongly, after being shown these things.

fuck you that's definitely not what happened at all.
table for two on a tv tray
Koshi
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
Belgium38799 Posts
June 11 2024 07:24 GMT
#2964
On June 11 2024 15:59 Mocsta wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 11 2024 15:47 Koshi wrote:
On June 11 2024 11:35 AlphaZero wrote:
On June 11 2024 09:55 Oatsmaster wrote:
On June 11 2024 09:51 AlphaZero wrote:
On June 11 2024 09:46 Oatsmaster wrote:
On June 11 2024 09:44 AlphaZero wrote:
On June 11 2024 09:42 Oatsmaster wrote:
On June 11 2024 09:39 AlphaZero wrote:
On June 11 2024 09:38 Oatsmaster wrote:
[quote]
How would Sandro self resolve?


He either keeps up in activity and analysis or does not. He is famous for being low activity as mafia.

Why is he mafia to you. I agreed with his takes pretty much all the time.

This is low activity


It is, but he had a IRL excuse.

If there is an increase in activity now I think it’s less clear.

So again I ask, how does he self resolve?


He plays the next phase or two like the last two games he played. Or he doesn't

I guarantee you he doesn’t
In 2 phases it’s gonna be lylo assuming nothing funky happens and we continue to miss.

Can you show me some good posts from Sandro? I’m assuming you don’t think the post I pointed out makes him scummy


I assume that this is the question you want me to answer,

I generally agree with his thinking and worldviews

The post you quoted was weak I agree.

I just want to give him some time because I think it will become more clear than this either way.

And I think there are good alternatives. Like Rayn/koshi/dmb

Unreal.

Ok so mafia is split up.

rayn/Koshi/dmb has 1 or 2
Mocsta/Sandroba has 1 or 2
Slam/Vivax/AZ has 0 or 1

Is that it? And us townies are capable to see 1. And we all have 1 mafia sitting in our ass mretending to be our friend.

It is obvious Tfrel is town
It is obvious Scott is town
It is obvious Oats is town

Those 3 are consensus right? Might want to add Vivax but dmb is still unsure.
what are you saying here.. that you will vote rayn and/or dmb this cycle?

I think DMB.
I now fully believe we have mafia we are blind towards, and mafia we cant unsee. And for some reason it is perfectly split between the townies.

(Well your team has more townies so that is why I consider our team has 2)
I had a good night of sleep.
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43270 Posts
June 11 2024 07:24 GMT
#2965
On June 11 2024 16:22 Koshi wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 11 2024 16:17 Trfel wrote:
On June 11 2024 16:16 Koshi wrote:
Ahno you understand it. You just dont think it is good.
Do you think it is good still?

Yes. It obviously does not make sandroba lock mafia.
BUT
In a fast catch up. It is weird that sandroba sees something that makes him go: "Hey rsoultin and Oats could be a mafia team"

And then not much later goes:

Town:
Oats

Mafia:
Rsoultin

It just contradicts this earlier post you made in a catchup of so many pages. If it is throwaway, why post it? He is limiting his post count and still contradicts in that low post count.

yes literally fucking this!!!!

why the hell does he even need to make that point of oats beingn mafia with rsoultin in the first place if he doesnt think it is true?????? i mean like if you casually post along the thread it is fine but he was not casually posting along the thread, he was doing a catch up which is basically "these points i find important when i am reading along the thread".

why is it important oats can be mafia with rsoultin if he doesnt think oats is mafia in the first place??????
table for two on a tv tray
Koshi
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
Belgium38799 Posts
June 11 2024 07:24 GMT
#2966
On June 11 2024 16:22 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 11 2024 16:14 Trfel wrote:
On June 11 2024 14:11 Oatsmaster wrote:
On June 11 2024 13:58 Trfel wrote:
On June 11 2024 13:56 Oatsmaster wrote:
On June 11 2024 03:04 Trfel wrote:
On June 11 2024 02:59 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Sandrobas reads do not track. He just took the town consensus scumreads and put them in a list.

That in itself isnt wrong, but he has just talked anout how oats can be scum if rsoultin is scum, then rsoultin (koshi) is scum, but oats is not on the list.

Also case on rsoul being mafia is basically "i cant find reasons for her to be mafia"?????
Middle point is actually very interesting. Good find.

Okay nvm I did think you talked about Sandro more than this post in more specific terms but why is this a good point at the time of the post and no longer a good point?
I looked into this more later, when raynpelikoneet did his whole "best case in the thread" thing, and realized that this argument is based on a misinterpretation of sandroba's post.
On June 11 2024 05:59 Trfel wrote:
On June 11 2024 02:59 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Sandrobas reads do not track. He just took the town consensus scumreads and put them in a list.

That in itself isnt wrong, but he has just talked anout how oats can be scum if rsoultin is scum, then rsoultin (koshi) is scum, but oats is not on the list.

Also case on rsoul being mafia is basically "i cant find reasons for her to be mafia"?????
Okay, lemme break down the best case in the game.

First point, you even say isn't bad in and of itself.

Second point, I thought made sense, upon rereading sandroba's filter though that's not what he is saying. Sandroba's post #2446 means that he thinks Oatsmaster can't be mafia if rsoultin/Koshi is town. He just said it in a weird way. Then, separately, he thinks Oatsmaster is town. At a glance you can maybe see it as sandroba thinking that if rsoultin/Koshi is mafia, Oatsmaster is mafia, but I really really don't think that is what sandroba is saying.

Third point, huh? My best guess at what you are trying to say is that you are referring to this:
On June 11 2024 00:21 sandroba wrote:
On June 09 2024 17:00 Koshi wrote:
I am 100% convinced you are mafia. But I will lynch you last because your filter is huge.

Sandroba and Mocsta are both mafia and I think we agree on that.


Okay this actually makes me feel a lot better, since I think rsoul is to me much harder to pin down as mafia than Koshi. For Koshi if he is this bad he is mafia and this view makes him mafia 100%. There is absolutely no way Koshi comes in with fresh eyes, reads the same thread as me and comes to this conclusion.
Which isn't just a misinterpretation of sandroba's post but is blatantly ignoring the entire point?

You cannot possibly think this case holds any water whatsoever, much less being the best case in the game?


I really don’t get what the accuracy of the statement has to do with rayns alignment.
I guess I can go back and respond to this. If you don't agree that's fine but I'll try.

It's totally understandable for someone to misinterpret something and make a wrong claim and realize it and retract their claim. This isn't what raynpelikoneet did. When sandroba and I pointed out that he was misreading sandroba's post, instead of changing his view, raynpelikoneet modified his argument. See here:
On June 11 2024 06:11 raynpelikoneet wrote:
TLDR;

If sandroba thinks rsoultin is mafia and Oats is town, there is simply no reason to say Oats can be mafia with rsoultin.
Raynpelikoneet's initial argument:
- Sandroba said that if rsoultin/Koshi is mafia, Oatsmaster could be mafia (implying this is more likely). Then, sandroba said he thinks rsoultin/Koshi is mafia, but didn't think Oatsmaster is mafia
Becomes:
- Sandroba said a pointless association read, it's pointless because it only matters if someone is town, and sandroba thinks that person is mafia
The latter isn't wrong, but it's a much weaker argument. However, this change did not affect raynpelikoneet's read on sandroba or his confidence in this case. Town in this spot would re-evaluate given the new information.

Note that raynpelikoneet's third point is literally nonsense. Sandroba said "I have no idea how to read rsoultin so it helps that Koshi replaced in, here are the reasons Koshi is mafia: (reasons)" and took that to mean "Koshi is mafia because I have no idea how to read rsoultin" which is simply not what sandroba said?

The end result is you have a three point case where raynpelikoneet literally said the first point doesn't mean anything on its own, the second point is quite weak, and the third point is objectively not true. But raynpelikoneet still believes it, very strongly, after being shown these things.

fuck you that's definitely not what happened at all.

It's how he perceived it. So be nice.
He is trying to explain his view.
I had a good night of sleep.
Trfel
Profile Joined August 2011
7015 Posts
June 11 2024 07:25 GMT
#2967
On June 11 2024 02:59 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Sandrobas reads do not track. He just took the town consensus scumreads and put them in a list.

That in itself isnt wrong, but he has just talked anout how oats can be scum if rsoultin is scum, then rsoultin (koshi) is scum, but oats is not on the list.

Also case on rsoul being mafia is basically "i cant find reasons for her to be mafia"?????
Gonna quote this one more time for clarity.

First paragraph, he literally says in the second paragraph that it doesn't make sandroba mafia. If you choose to interpret this point as being strong, I can't stop you, but I don't think it is very strong, and raynpelikoneet doesn't, either. I don't even really think it's true tbh, but that's more subjective and I don't feel like arguing about it.

Second paragraph I discussed a few posts previously.

Third paragraph I discussed a few posts previously.

Note that this is the reasoning that raynpelikoneet is using to explain his vote on sandroba. And raynpelikoneet was defending sandroba not long before! So this reasoning has to be strong enough to make sandroba the most suspicious person, and also override his previous town lean/town read on sandroba.
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43270 Posts
June 11 2024 07:25 GMT
#2968
AZ is deliberately misrepresenting this mason thing.
table for two on a tv tray
AlphaZero
Profile Joined June 2024
Korea (South)759 Posts
June 11 2024 07:27 GMT
#2969
On June 11 2024 16:25 raynpelikoneet wrote:
AZ is deliberately misrepresenting this mason thing.


how so?
"AlphaZero: Four Hours to World Class from a Standing Start"
Koshi
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
Belgium38799 Posts
June 11 2024 07:28 GMT
#2970
On June 11 2024 16:25 Trfel wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 11 2024 02:59 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Sandrobas reads do not track. He just took the town consensus scumreads and put them in a list.

That in itself isnt wrong, but he has just talked anout how oats can be scum if rsoultin is scum, then rsoultin (koshi) is scum, but oats is not on the list.

Also case on rsoul being mafia is basically "i cant find reasons for her to be mafia"?????
Gonna quote this one more time for clarity.

First paragraph, he literally says in the second paragraph that it doesn't make sandroba mafia. If you choose to interpret this point as being strong, I can't stop you, but I don't think it is very strong, and raynpelikoneet doesn't, either. I don't even really think it's true tbh, but that's more subjective and I don't feel like arguing about it.

Second paragraph I discussed a few posts previously.

Third paragraph I discussed a few posts previously.

Note that this is the reasoning that raynpelikoneet is using to explain his vote on sandroba. And raynpelikoneet was defending sandroba not long before! So this reasoning has to be strong enough to make sandroba the most suspicious person, and also override his previous town lean/town read on sandroba.

On your last paragraph, I believe town!rayn can switch his read based on tje case he made.
I know Vivax would confirm this.

Classic rayn. He can tunnel somebody an entire game of such a read.
I had a good night of sleep.
raynpelikoneet
Profile Joined April 2007
Finland43270 Posts
June 11 2024 07:28 GMT
#2971
On June 11 2024 16:25 Trfel wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 11 2024 02:59 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Sandrobas reads do not track. He just took the town consensus scumreads and put them in a list.

That in itself isnt wrong, but he has just talked anout how oats can be scum if rsoultin is scum, then rsoultin (koshi) is scum, but oats is not on the list.

Also case on rsoul being mafia is basically "i cant find reasons for her to be mafia"?????
Gonna quote this one more time for clarity.

First paragraph, he literally says in the second paragraph that it doesn't make sandroba mafia. If you choose to interpret this point as being strong, I can't stop you, but I don't think it is very strong, and raynpelikoneet doesn't, either. I don't even really think it's true tbh, but that's more subjective and I don't feel like arguing about it.

[...]

Note that this is the reasoning that raynpelikoneet is using to explain his vote on sandroba. And raynpelikoneet was defending sandroba not long before! So this reasoning has to be strong enough to make sandroba the most suspicious person, and also override his previous town lean/town read on sandroba.

First thing. That's not what i said. I said his reads list in itself doesnt make him mafia. But when you couple it up with the fact he needed to say if rsoultin is mafia oats could be mafia, the reads list doesnt even hold truth of what he is thinking anymore.

I have never defended sandroba during D2. Hell you yourself used this as an argument of me being mafia!!!! Now i am mafia for not defending sandroba and defending sandroba???
table for two on a tv tray
Trfel
Profile Joined August 2011
7015 Posts
June 11 2024 07:31 GMT
#2972
Raynpelikoneet, I agree that it doesn't make sense for sandroba to post that. I'm not arguing that.

I'm wondering how you can think this is an indication that sandroba is mafia?

It's fairly common for people to post any and all associatice reads they think of, even if they don't match their current game view. I personally don't think this is helpful, but I acknowledge that other people do it anyway. So how is it super incriminating when sandroba does it?

Also, even if I were to agree with you on this point, I believe your first point to be weak (you admitted this already) and your third point to be nonsense, as I have described. As a result, I think your case is very weak, even if I were to agree on the second point, which I don't.
Koshi
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
Belgium38799 Posts
June 11 2024 07:33 GMT
#2973
Sandroba/DMB/+1

Can we all agree on this? Before we look for the third?
I had a good night of sleep.
Koshi
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
Belgium38799 Posts
June 11 2024 07:34 GMT
#2974
I dont want to clutter the thread looking for the third.
I think we should keep rayn alive and undisturbed today.
I had a good night of sleep.
AlphaZero
Profile Joined June 2024
Korea (South)759 Posts
June 11 2024 07:35 GMT
#2975
On June 11 2024 16:33 Koshi wrote:
Sandroba/DMB/+1

Can we all agree on this? Before we look for the third?


IM not sure on Sandro.

I think DMB is likely.
"AlphaZero: Four Hours to World Class from a Standing Start"
Koshi
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
Belgium38799 Posts
June 11 2024 07:35 GMT
#2976
Should just decide which of the two is the best lynch. I think Oats made good points on Sandroba. The overexplain8ng is real.
I had a good night of sleep.
Trfel
Profile Joined August 2011
7015 Posts
June 11 2024 07:36 GMT
#2977
On June 11 2024 16:33 Koshi wrote:
Sandroba/DMB/+1

Can we all agree on this? Before we look for the third?
No, we clearly do not all agree on this? If we agreed, we would be lynching sandroba instead of looking for alternatives?
Koshi
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
Belgium38799 Posts
June 11 2024 07:37 GMT
#2978
On June 11 2024 16:35 AlphaZero wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 11 2024 16:33 Koshi wrote:
Sandroba/DMB/+1

Can we all agree on this? Before we look for the third?


IM not sure on Sandro.

I think DMB is likely.

Yes. Just like we are not sure about DMB. But let's argue which of these 2 is most likely today.

Really like the way you guys approached Oats. Except 1-2 adhoms it was enjoyable to read. There is for sure a lot of town in your team.
I had a good night of sleep.
AlphaZero
Profile Joined June 2024
Korea (South)759 Posts
June 11 2024 07:37 GMT
#2979
im sorry i can't help more, im stretching things IRL to even be as active as I am being.
"AlphaZero: Four Hours to World Class from a Standing Start"
Koshi
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
Belgium38799 Posts
June 11 2024 07:37 GMT
#2980
On June 11 2024 16:36 Trfel wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 11 2024 16:33 Koshi wrote:
Sandroba/DMB/+1

Can we all agree on this? Before we look for the third?
No, we clearly do not all agree on this? If we agreed, we would be lynching sandroba instead of looking for alternatives?

No you would be lynching DMB...
I had a good night of sleep.
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