A Classy Game of Mafia - Page 11

On March 06 2024 08:55 Palmar wrote:
I'm finalizing here.

I like a bunch of mafia in:

rayn
jat
rels
mz
tts

then there's gonna be some mafia in the people who should be killed on policy

vivax
trfel
hapa


then there's the people that need constant monitoring and need to improve

iamp
marv
jealous
copcake
slam
ve

and finally we have the people I have somewhere from mild to good reasons to think are town

sandro
oats
dp
dmb
jls
koshi

None of the lists are in any particular order

I don't really think Trfel will flip mafia. It's just a "I believe in people" read that he wouldn't fuck off like that as mafia with the whole "If I get lynched I get lynched" thing. But it's an objectively good lynch so I'm not going to fight it all that hard. Leaving my vote on jat. I've been burned before by placing too much faith in people not doing crazy things as mafia so it's whatever.

On December 16 2023 22:50 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Palmar can you make a post about why it's reasonable to assume i am mafia with (1) sandroba or (2) holyflare?

On December 16 2023 23:53 raynpelikoneet wrote:

Do youthink that's something that makes me mafia?
I mean like its probably the easiest thing to do as mafia, call townies town for correct reasons. I also heavily abuse that fact as mafia.

I dont care if you do associative reads or not.
I find it suspicious that the people who i sm literally the least likely to be mafia with ate the ones you geoup with me being mafia with snd just sit on that.

Also i disagree that i had no influence on the game. Its true i have not been as active as usual. But i was a key factor to almost change the lynch from Vivax to sandroba D1, and i also believe i was one of the key votes to lynch Chezinu.

On March 05 2024 22:48 Palmar wrote:
I need Sandroba to come convince me his mason buddies aren't just mafia.

I really, really, really don't think marv just tries to kill me without even talking about it.

On March 06 2024 06:46 Palmar wrote:
Marv is very, very, very likely to be mafia.

I already didn't love his stance on the Vivax thing and his tone in the thread. Then this line of thinking is really what's sealing the deal.



This isn't a valid complaint.

I'm not gonna call marv bad when he votes for me. In fact, I kinda understand why he voted for me early on. I had done very little as I was busy yesterday. Today I produced a long filter with all kinds of reads and explanations of them and that did absolutely nothing to budge his opinion on me.

I don't really know what sandroba thinks of me but he did come back and kinda changed his mind, at least moved off the scumread a little bit. But marv is dug in. He is not this certain about my alignment if he's town. There should be some doubt in him.

I actually think Oats looks a lot better for this observation



Like this is what I expect people to do who don't just want a kill.

I don't think marv is bad, I just think he's scum.

And if ANYONE buys this logic with me dead, that person is an infinite moron.



This is not true.

On March 06 2024 19:53 Palmar wrote:

Ok if you're town and you admit you suck as town, maybe listen to some experience.

DP is very good as mafia and can be mafia here.

But it's a huge game and we need to prioritize. We're not lynching people who are making sense, making good calls and leading town when we have plenty of lower hanging fruit to go after. You HAVE to be willing to be wrong to be good at town. You can always change your mind later. I was wrong so much last game and ended up back to back supporting lynch on mafia I had called town to win the game last game. And doing so I sheeped/supported people I had (wrongly) called mafia all game.

Re-evaluating based on game state is NOT A BAD THING. Killing a town leader with a huge filter and good takes is just tinfoil hat bad play. No need to be a hero when there's administrative tasks to be finished first. If DP is mafia we'll cross that bridge when we get there. You're not using your time efficiently by chasing him at the moment. We'll cross that bridge when we get there.

People are really afraid of "getting fooled" by good mafia, but the reality it's so much worse to get fooled by bad mafia. If let's say... TTS and DP are both mafia, I'd much rather be fooled by DP than TTS.

On March 07 2024 00:56 Palmar wrote:


Again, I understand you disliking it, but now that I've reminded you that these kind of associative reads don't really matter to me as town, doesn't that change your stance?

On March 09 2024 06:35 Palmar wrote:
So, I'm going to finally make the case you've all been waiting for.

[b]raynpelikoneet is scum[b]

The entire case hinges on two points. There is some other weirdness in his postings, but those are by far the most important ones

Point 1 - rayn demands, twice and in all caps, that I make a case on Vivax

The reason this is important is because it clearly implies rayn never actually read my filter





But the problem is, I had explained my stance on Vivax multiple times in the thread. Like I'm actually kinda annoyed with myself for how often I repeated that same point.

Here's a link to a post where I summarized me repeatedly expressing the same stance on Vivax.

https://tl.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=28152997

In conclusion. rayn considers me his #1 lynch target but hasn't actually read my filter and doesn't know my stances.

Point 2 - rayn refuses to acknowledge that I don't think and play like him

This one is a little more nuanced to explain, especially to people who weren't involved in the last game we played, but for context here's the gist of it.

On day 3, I am town and kinda think rayn may be town. rayn is however mafia and is tunneling me as an established scumread.

The most significant post here is this:



In the same way as he does this game for the mason thing, rayn demands a townread because I have other people that aren't him as possible mafia, and then claims it's impossible that they could be scum together.

To me, this is a clear logical fallacy, because it assumes that I'm always right on my scumreads other than rayn. I explain this even further here in the last game.



So given that we literally had this discussion last game, rayn's claim THIS game that I must be mafia because I refuse to think in associations like he does means he has to be scum himself.

Not because he doesn't know my playstyle, that's actually completely acceptable

he's mafia because he's reminded that I just explained my playstyle to him last game, I play like I always do again, and remind him that's how I think, but he still refuses to listen

This means he doesn't WANT to listen, and his objective isn't actually finding out my alignment, just wants to kill me.

In conclusion: raynpelikoneet





I mean the only other option is that he's a moron.

On March 09 2024 06:59 Palmar wrote:
JacobStrangelove - This guy is clearly just smart. I liked his posting because it's all pretty reasonable, but I feel like he isn't moving the needle at all this game. Happy sitting back and not getting listened to.

Frame math:
Slam check 1/18 (lynches + himself) players = 5.56% chance he checks Oats
Framer frames 1/14 players (21 - 2 lynches - 5 mafia) = 7.14% chance Oats gets framed

This means there's like... 0.3% chance a framer hits the same target the cop checks (but obviously intiution skews this a lot) it's still the best play to do it like that.