EPTWinter Warfare Mafia - Page 20
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Palmar
Iceland22632 Posts
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Palmar
Iceland22632 Posts
On December 23 2023 07:25 sandroba wrote: I'm a bit shaken so you still have a shot. I'm waiting for Palmar to help me out here. Just the thought of losing to Slam who is coasting on these town reads and not doing shit is pissing me off. Im kinda waiting on your report from mason | ||
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I have good townies vouching pretty hard for all the people left. Marv for Sandroba and Rayn and HF for Slam. At this point those become pretty much a non-factor, not because I don't think reading dead townies is a good idea, but because they pretty much cancel each other out. Despite some of these people having 30 page filters that I'm absolutely not reading entirely through, I'm going to sort of explain why I'm going to end up voting rayn out of poe. If Sandroba is mafia, he could've just straight up won the game last night. Rayn was adamantly opposed to lynching dmb. Instead of feigning disinterest sandroba argued with rayn for pages and pages to get the lynch on the actual mafia. This is completely unnecessary in mylo. My thought process is pretty much "Sandroba could already have won, but he decided to not." This obviously doesn't mean he can't be mafia, it's just the reasoning I'm using. Additionally I feel like Sandroba's insistence on rayn being the final mafia is pretty interesting. There actually is an option if he is mafia to go back on me, but he doesn't. Regarding slam it becomes more difficult. I townread him initially for pre-game claiming that I am very good at reading his alignment and him being afraid of my ability to do so. I can't read him for shit, but that's irrelevant, the entire point is that he seems to have genuinely thought I could. So if he believes that, masoning me immediately in the game is pretty much insane, unless he made that wifom post pre-game... just anticipating he might be mafia? and might roll whisperer? It's a tiny bit more likely that he anticipated this response to my post, but there are other points to Slam being town. He did really help kill Chez, HF townreads him hard after the mason topic. Slam is an incredibly difficult read in pretty much any game. If we rolled Chez/dmb/Slam mafia game that was always going to be a little tough lol. This leaves rayn. I actually changed my mind after rayn being rational with me when I was under real threat. My basic argument for him maybe being mafia back then still stands. He's said a lot of words but not really pushed town. He did try to push town this last cycle though, but the direction he was pushing would've lost the game right there for town. The thing that gives me pause and hesitation is marv's townread on rayn. I know my view is going to be biased. I was being tunneled by a bunch of people, so when someone actually engages with you it sometimes distorts your view of that person. But marv was under no real suspicion of rayn, yet he moved on after the discussion with me as well. And marv really knows rayn. It's almost hypocritical of me to push for a rayn lynch here. So what do we do? We have hit mafia with 2/4 lynches which is pretty good. But unfortunately (and not really through any fault of their own) our blues were a non-factor in a mafia favored game. If we somehow had a mislynch left we probably win this, but that's not the world given to us. Note I'm not blaming the hosts, they did make a balanced game with what they have. It's just that 12 player games are pretty much automatically mafia favored (because 12 player with 2 mafia would be heavily town favored). It's been an interesting game that's thrown a lot of assumptions out the window. I'm not necessarily happy with where I'm landing today, but I feel like at least I have good reasons to do what I do. | ||
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Could still be marv | ||
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Sandroba and Trfel played really well, but honestly, almost all of town did a really good job. Slam played the best town game I've seen from him. The problem town faced is that it was really scattershot early on in the game. And mafia did a decent job of blending in. I've been skimming the obs QT and they seemed determined we were about to lose when we lynched DMB. The problem for mafia was that any lylo was going to be difficult because there were too many quality town players in the game. Sure, a lylo with Sandro and I isn't easy for mafia, but they were always going to face a lylo with good players. If I get lynched over HF and Sandro shot over marv or koshi or something, you still have 2 quality town players in lylo, willing to throw out their preconceived notions and ready to make the right play. It's somewhat interesting that it was really enough to follow the objectively correct plays to lynch mafia. I made the point on DMB that some of her actions need additional explanation to make her town on day 4. Chez' lynch was a really good policy lynch. Maybe some people saw something scummy in him, but I'm not good enough for that really. Although I hard townread Trfel at that time so maybe I should've been suspicious. Rayn, similarly, simply ran out of lynch targets. People really underestimate the ability to persevere in town. To never fall into the trap of tunneling something to the death and instead constantly re-evaluate reads and thoughts. This town ended up with Sandroba and I as allies finishing off the last few mafia (we were together on both dmb and rayn). We had tunneled each other for the first 2 days really. Regarding marv, that was a strange situation. Marv got very angry with Sandroba because he didn't believe scum Sandroba would make the request he did, given us knowing about Marv's shit evening IRL. The problem there, and I know this wasn't Marv's intention, is that I personally also know Marv has enough integrity to not blow up like that as scum Marv. So I immediately thought to myself "well marv just spewed himself town..." and I almost wrote it in the thread. I did notice some people coming to a similar conclusion. The problem is, I was under heavy pressure at the time, and if I make that read, that looks really good and reasonable for me. So instead of town getting maybe 2 townreads (marv, sandroba) out of the whole thing, they start getting even more (me? and then maybe whoever realizes I make that read as town?). So for game integrity's sake I decided to do a pretty scummy thing and call marv null and completely refuse to discuss it. I wanted mafia to have an avenue to attack me for that, because they did lose some initiative on the two people involved (Sandroba, Marv). I lied to town that I thought it could be marv, but if you read my posts I know I'm pretty much treating him as confirmed town. I couldn't really think of a better way to deal with the whole thing that wouldn't give town additional advantage. | ||
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Palmar
Iceland22632 Posts
I quoted like 3 good HF posts in the lead up to his lynch, but I think he kinda killed himself when he refused to entertain my idea that maybe he should be trying to kill DMB and not me. This both made me suspect him even more, and of course also took dmb off the table for the lynch. At that point I needed to kill HF to protect myself, more really than I needed him to die for being scum. And once again the deadlines played a part, because HF did eventually late at night show up and vote dmb, but it was too late. I kinda wanted that lynch (I offered both rayn and HF who I talked to day 3 to go after dmb, both refused). But I was nowhere near sure she was mafia there. I wasn't even sure she was on day 4, but at that point I simply went after the objectively correct lynch and it worked. I personally am clearly quite rusty. With great town play we managed to sail a tough victory home with no help from blues and only 2 mislynches, so I'm really happy with that, but I feel like I was never certain enough of people's alignments this game. I can't beat myself up too much, after all I'm part of the team that ended up delivering the victory, but I feel like I should have been more certain that was going to happen. Additionally my day 1 was uncharacteristically bad. | ||
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I have a disclaimer that hasn’t changed in over a decade in my profile. That is still valid. | ||
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On December 26 2023 21:26 Vivax wrote: Okay so if I said in a game that my people enjoyed watching you suffer, whether they existed or not, but it‘s not personal, where would you place your reaction at ? It’s a game, I probably wouldn’t care lol. Are you okay man? | ||
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Palmar
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I lost a lot of sleep the night we killed you Vivax  Remember though, it’s all good. I have no beef with anyone on TL mafia and consider you guys friends. | ||
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On December 27 2023 05:44 Vivax wrote: Thanks. That helps. You made me think you were part of a certain gang. Now I know what ptsd is like. I just become a literal beast that sees enemies everywhere out of self defense instinct once I feel like it‘s back then and mafia often triggers it. In that sense, sorry for my outburst. At least you have the capacity for confrontation and talking it out. No worries mate. Take care of yourself. I'm gonna lynch you, and others, in game, but trust me that none of that carries to out of game. There is a really, really good reason I put that disclaimer in my profile. Mafia is a game that requires you to antagonize other people, so if you have a hard time separating the game from real life or outside the game, it can get emotionally taxing. All the best. | ||
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