EPTTL Endures Mafia II - Page 5
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TankTopTiger
509 Posts
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TankTopTiger
509 Posts
I just spent a lot of time inside my head on you DP. Real spooky. I thought that a red DP would see the difference between DMB last game and this game, and know it meant blue. Then they could lead the mislynch, but have meta from previous game on leading mislynches. Bonus points for backing away from it at the last minute by reading them green (ad lib). But it was Rayn that pointed you in that direction, so that play doesn't work out unless redDP is very fortunate and just had this play fall into his lap (I don't think Rayn's suggestion was red at all). There were some other things. Your reactions have felt artificial twice to me - one was in response to CC, can't remember the other. You being onboard with policy feels irrational but I'm not actually sure on your position on that and WW may have softened you up. But overall it's too much reach, so I'm back to treating you as green based on the overall pro-townliness of your play. Your read on me is exactly what I would expect and I can't argue against it. I'm not as engaged in poor information environments. Rayn is green. LS is weird because I think he decided at the start of the game that he was going to play differently and so my main reason for giving him the benefit of the doubt feels artificial. Someone said at some point that he feels very in the moment and I agree with that. He also seems to come across as artificial whenever he thinks he should be providing an anger response (congruent with autism claim). So I sort of just want to leave him and see where he takes it for now. I still see CC as red. I don't really want to engage with her because she counter-tunnels and shits up the thread leaving everyone confused. I don't think there's anything she could say that would change my mind, but she also hasn't really done anything since that alleviates or intensifies my suspicion. The read is stale but it's still my firmest read. Overall, I think town have been eating town a lot, but also in many directions. This sort of environment is something I wanted at the start of the game (not the TvT thing, but the diversity of opinions thing as opposed to last game which felt sychophantic to me from many). This pushes me in the direction of thinking that mafia are more passive, so toward Vayo, Marv, and Slam. | ||
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TankTopTiger
509 Posts
I'll have to go back and read his comments around DMB, but I think him recognising she was blue then passing it off onto you, who then convinced me while himself backing off, is too complex an explanation with too many moving parts for me to believe on face value. He would have done this and then gone to bed so completely hands off (which is what he claimed and is verifiable by CC). In short, he's my strongest town read and there isn't a compelling story in there for me where he's red. I could be wrong, as the timeline is a bit fuzzy for me, but I'm unaware of there being any reason to suspect him. With you DP, I force myself not to tunnel you unless you're super duper scummy. I disagree with why people were treating you red, and I disagree with their reasons to start thinking you green. I read you on my own terms, and that starts from a baseline of suspicion that I actively inhibit. I've resolved not to push you unless I've got reasons that aren't speculative, I just got stun locked by what I see as bad reasons to read you green. | ||
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TankTopTiger
509 Posts
I see CC as only having done OMGUS since CCvsDP. She's made shallow comments elsewhere, but the bulk of her attention has been directly on people who have expressed suspicions of her. Is this a fair assessment, and if so, is this consistent with how she plays as town? | ||
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TankTopTiger
509 Posts
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TankTopTiger
509 Posts
My view on LS is not that he is red, but that he has claimed tracker after him being mostly red. I'm not pushing for his lynch, I'm figuring out what to do with someone who's not CCed when there's no guarantee there is even a tracker in the game. There was also no guarantee there's an RB in the game but he was certain that he would get RBed and then he did. The way I see LS is that he's got a free pass for now, but if he is blue then mafia have him 100% under control and they will keep him alive as lynchbait instead of NKing him. This is balanced against the chance that he is red, in which case he made a claim which a red would make (baiting out blue at worst), and lucked out that there wasn't a CC. So we have someone who's sort of a ghost regadless of alignment. But at some point he'll be on the block due to town suspicion or mafia leading, and when that time comes we want him to have given us enough information to make the choice. I repeat I'm not trying to lynch the blue claim. | ||
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TankTopTiger
509 Posts
Rayn, I was really clear the whole time she was not off the hook with me. I didn't want to tunnel early D1 because it stops the whole process in its tracks.I made my suspicions known (it's pretty clear in the post) but didn't commit until later. I see D1 almost entirely as about collecting information and I tried not to turn D1 into mindless wagoning like last game. I rely on meta-reads from other people to determine whether someone is acting scummy relative to their norm. I had very strong opinions on marv last game based on the expectations I got from other people despite never having played with him. You talked me into thinking she was red and that this wasn't her. It was convincing. But you are involved - I still don't understand why you changed your mind all the way to green but I can only imagine there's some IRL element. But I'm not party to that and don't see someone convincing their fiance as counteracting the evidence against her, which I see as strong for D1. I value some information over other information. Someone having strong beliefs without evidence when they have a history of the opposite belief in similar circumstances is very high-value information to me. You look at other information that I basically ignore (like post order, or simultaneous posting, which I see as basically coincidental), I lock onto what I see as the best information available and focus on that. | ||
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TankTopTiger
509 Posts
On June 11 2023 19:06 Vayoletta wrote: I was not aware that nights are talky this game, that's not how these games are usually played. Thought I'd use the quiet night to catch up with the game. In my vision Copcake, Alakaslam and Hapahauli are all town. With Alakaslam that's more of the tone and the way he conveyed his thoughts early game that makes me read him town. Copcake's aggression makes me read that slot as town. and Hapahauli's request of clarification for activity rules here makes me think he has genuine concern on my slot, which would more naturally come from town. Haven't read the thread for pr claims, but will need to check if there are any clears. If Darthpunk is town, I would say there is a good chance that there is one mafia there. I don't think Copcake is mafia, so either Lightning or Vivax. Copcake, what's the reason you voted DarthPunk? I don't like this read on hap. Someone inquiring about the rules is ANI and does not give grounds to town read. Hap then gets NKed. IIRC the request for info was in the middle of a conversation regarding whether we should LAL. The excuse to read him town feels fake. | ||
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TankTopTiger
509 Posts
On June 11 2023 20:23 raynpelikoneet wrote: Exactly, not necessarily be quiet but not to advocate another lynch that strongly. The only way i can see that, is if DP somehow figured out DMB is blue and made an educated guess DMB is gonna claim and then he HAS to try to lynch someone else. I don't know if that's true and i would need to check better since it seemed like noone thought DMB is blue. I see this as a bad reason to read DP town. When he tried to take the train off DMB, he obviously wasn't leading it on himself and IIRC he was basically out of the woods and leading things. CC and Rayn you talk about it being risky but I don't see it as risky if he is red. I agree with your conclusion (DP green) but disagree with how you got there. Also, if DP was red, he "knew" DMB was blue in the same way town DP "knew" she wasn't green. To a red DP he knew she was acting safer and this meant blue. | ||
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TankTopTiger
509 Posts
On June 11 2023 03:33 Vivax wrote: Probably town: - Hapa (attitude mostly, like a talking rock that sprouts among the waves woosh) - Marv (decent followup to bugs bunny intro, aligns with Hapa in some aspects) - Rayn (I don't think he'd scumread Chez for his vote on me as mafia and would rather go along with it comes to mind as a reason) - LS (Christmas tree salience recycled first post + I kind of agree with Slam on his initial analysis at this point.I think he'd have folded and fell over by now as scum) - Vayo (weird gut reason, seems familiar idk how) - Cop (tonally seems like annoyed town to me also #hashtag has me pocketed so congratz if scum) Not sure, could murder: Chezinu, Slam, DMB, MZ Want to murder: DP, TTT How did you have reads on Marv or Vayo? These seem like really weak reasons to give someone town points. | ||
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TankTopTiger
509 Posts
On June 11 2023 06:02 Alakaslam wrote: Voting CopCake in case I can't be around for deadline. Want to keep it from spiraling onto a wagon on a strong townread of mine (DP) Slam you have a strong gut-read on LS, and you had it early off a C&P post. In this post you had more unexplained feels about DP. Where did these feels come from? | ||
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TankTopTiger
509 Posts
On June 10 2023 06:21 Vivax wrote: I‘m like 90% sure LS is mind boggingly town after a skim. And y‘all thought you were good. LS was set to be lynched D1 if he hadn't blue claimed. He was acting red to everyone else. What could you see that others could not? 90% is reasonably confident. | ||
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TankTopTiger
509 Posts
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TankTopTiger
509 Posts
I'm just trying to work through this and here's where I keep coming back to the conclusion that LS is scum. He's got Darth as a townread. He says there's something off with DarthVCop. When pushed he says that it feels like TownVMafia (even though he initially said the interaction felt forced which is usually what people say when they're analyzing a MafiaVMafia interation). Once he says he feels one of them could be scum, he gets pushed on which one and he says it's Darth.... his previous townread. While I disagree with MZ on policy lynching, I read MZ as strong-willed and independent (e.g. going after Marv D1 last game), and I can very much see someone who isn't so appalled at the notion finding it an attractive option given what felt like no great options that could be agreed upon. | ||
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TankTopTiger
509 Posts
I wasted a lot of time paying careful attention to you. People seem to be sheeping against you and then for you, and I think that's a good place to look for scum sign. I'm not trying to put doubt on you, I'm trying to find people who pretended they had reads they don't actually have. I do not support a lynch on you and acted yesterday to prevent your lynch. The little information Slam is giving on his perspective doesn't really add up. The read he initially had on LS was based on a C&P, Slam should have reevaluated but didn't. This is the only readable info on Slam other than baseless reads (itself bing a baseless read but with damning context). | ||
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TankTopTiger
509 Posts
By wasting attention, I meant I spent a lot of time on you without changing my position. I meant to work in there that that I know what you've been up to so have an easier time appraising things that people say about you. | ||
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TankTopTiger
509 Posts
Pardon me for asking, but shouldn't CC be among those if that's your final listing and you just called CC red? Would like to know if you just forgot to put her there or if you meant the mafia besides her. Cause if you forgot to put her there, that's something that would make you scum. That's not a final list, it's how I see the game. I'm not stating they're red, I'm saying that since what has occurred feels like TvT I think there is red in the lurkers/trolls, namely those three. I want CC lynched, but only DP seems to be on board because Rayn flipped for ??? reasons. We've already gone over the reasons ad infinitum but you guys seem to either not understand or not care. CC had a green read on Rayn out of nowhere. CC has been incurious when in obsQT, she was suspicious of everyone (bar marv and DMB) and didn't start anything remotely like a tunnel until D3. This is completely unlike what she's done here, which is basically assume Rayn green, DP+TTT red. This game feels much harder to find scum but she's more certain. | ||
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TankTopTiger
509 Posts
What makes sense about his read on LS? LS C&Ped a post which Slam read as green. It came to light that the post was C&P. Slam nodded his head and continued with that read. Intuition doesn't mean stupid. His data set for his intuition was overturned so he should have reappraised but didn't. Slam is even more opaque than last game with why he thinks what he does. I know some people rely on intuition more but pure gut is bs. Your gut follows real info. It's still your brain doing the work. It doesn't just spit out answers with no rhyme or reason. | ||
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TankTopTiger
509 Posts
I mean that CC is incurious now when in obsQT she was pointing fingers everywhere. | ||
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TankTopTiger
509 Posts
Endurance Mafia CC reads on D1 (from obs QT):
*Koshi *DMB *Slam *Slam *Chez *Chez *DMB *Slam *DP *DMB *vivax *MZ *DP *Koshi *Slam Endurance Mafia II CC reads on D1:
*DP *DP *Rayn *Rayn *DP *Rayn *LS *TTT These are approx. cos I did it fast, but should be fairly reasonable birds eye view of her actions. There's no flipflopping this game, only blind read on Rayn early, singular shallow reads, and tunnels on people who suspect her. | ||
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