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On November 30 2020 09:10 Hapahauli wrote:
I think it was very easily deduced from my posting about what blue role I was.
As for why I wasn't killed, two plausible reasons:
1) I basically afk'd for 3 days.
2) Why would you shoot the Mad Hatter if you believe he is likely to deliver KP on mafia (i.e. Vivax)? As for point 2, that requires mafia being extremely smart.... I don't know if mafia is that smart 
I suppose they could have assumed that I would jailkeep you again, thus roleblocking you, but that seems risky.
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Well, this game sure got active quickly 
I'll try and do some more filter dives with this new information.... but at least currently, I find myself believing Hapahauli. As strange of a setup as that would make it.
Yet I also believe raynpelikoneet. And I believe Tictock. And to some extent, Vivax
But I agree that Vivax is the most likely mafia. He has a three page filter by Day 3, and unless he's going to contradict himself, the entire first page was preliminary reads that were canceled as soon as he caught up. I'm not even super confident he's mafia, but that's where I am inclined to look first.
Something else that makes me think is that raynpelikoneet does have somewhat of a history (at least, as far as I know) of "unexpected" night kills. But I don't really see the need for him to do that this game, even as a medic dodge the kills this game have been far off what one might expect. And raynpelikoneet has his bodyguard as a perfect excuse for surviving, no need for a weird night kill.
Honestly at this point I may just give up trying to read raynpelikoneet. He can play too well as mafia, while I am able to catch him sometimes he can also completely fool me other times. I might just have to try and read Tictock and Hapahauli to POE who the last mafia is...
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On November 27 2020 06:11 Hapahauli wrote:Show nested quote +On November 27 2020 06:08 raynpelikoneet wrote:
I am thinking if i can actually solve the game right now. Mechanically speaking, a VT. It would mean that in the remainder of the town, there would be 1-2 blue claims (given the 2 scum + evil mastermind, there is likely another town blue floating around to give the town a chance), in addition to 1 confirmed bodyguard claim. Pretty hard for scum to overcome. Hapahauli, do explain? If I'm reading this correctly (which I am unsure of), it seems to contradict your recent statements that this is a hard game for town and that justifies having three power roles. Could be wrong, but I'd just like an explanation eventually please!
@Fecalfeast and whoever else may be around, let me know if you want to talk. I assume Hapahauli wants to do his deep analysis xD
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Two more questions for Hapahauli. First, you said that Vivax's posting had improved recently when you were changing your vote to Jockmcplop. Can you elaborate a bit on that? I liked his response to your case, but beyond that I don't see a significant difference.
Second, how much do you know about my scum play? This question likely has a follow-up once you answer. Again, no rush.
And I suppose third, I'm wondering why you are back to scumreading Vivax, but I suppose I can wait for your filter dives to finish.
In other news, I am still a bit confused as to why mafia didn't roleblock Hapahauli, if Hapahauli is town. Personally, in setups like this where there is no veteran (or the veteran can't be roleblocked to remove the power), I don't value the roleblock very highly at all (until there are blue claims). Thus, I would have 100% used the roleblock on Hapahauli N2, even if I was confident that he would be jailed.
But I get that maybe not everyone is that way. So I wonder, did I give away somehow that I was blue? Giving mafia incentive to try and roleblock me instead? I attempted to not do so, though mafia has shown a skill for blue hunting.
I definitely understand mafia not wanting to take the risk of shooting town!Hapahauli and getting the shot blocked. And I can see a slight risk of shooting me or Vivax (again, assuming town) and getting it blocked. Shooting into the remaining players is very unlikely to get blocked by the known jailkeeper, and has a chance at taking down the bodyguard. But why not throw a roleblock on Hapahauli in this case? That's what confuses me.
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On November 30 2020 13:16 Hapahauli wrote:
That post was made after Slam flipped parity cop. So I’m saying there that in addition to the flipped blue, there are likely 1-2 extra roles (and likely 2, hence 3 roles in total). Yeah, that's what I thought you meant. I just am currently having trouble reading it that way, but I guess it really doesn't make sense as 1-2 blue roles in total, so I guess I'll take your word for it. Thanks.
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And yes, I can definitely see Vivax being mafia here. I don't like his Day 1 at all, throwing suspicion at Alakaslam for a page and then retracting it for no reason once he's caught up. And even though I've criticized it, in retrospect I think Hapahauli's point about Vivax's lynch pool is actually valid (just worded differently). Vivax didn't include Grackaroni in his lynch pool, while he definitely should have. That lack od inclusion makes no sense and feels arbitrary. But much more importantly, Vivax never tried to figure out who was mafia or seemed to even care, he wasn't really doing much of anything. I have no idea what he was trying to accomplish.
And third, his Day 2 scumread on Hapahauli. He said he didn't like the push onto Jockmcplop because there were no other wagons but didn't do anything to consider otherwise (he wasn't the only one who did this but I have higher expectations for paranoid, tinfoil, town!Vivax). And Vivax seemed okay with no one believing him that Hapahauli was mafia. Vivax's willingness to openly call out and suspect an un-cc'd blue and then not care when nothing happens and not do anything with the read seems off. It's fine to voice suspicions, but he went far beyond that without actually making any move to do anything to Hapahauli.
Still need to read Tictock and raynpelikoneet, gonna take a break though.
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On November 26 2020 05:04 Tictock wrote:
Lol, good shot.
Also he wasn't mafia so I was right too! This post by Tictock seems out of place given that he had recently said he was taking back his "don't kill Grackaroni" stance:
On November 26 2020 04:39 Tictock wrote:Humm I'm actually gunna take back that "dont kill Grack" thing His filter is pretty meh, and this post feels odd Show nested quote +On November 26 2020 02:54 Grackaroni wrote:
The thread seems to be divided into two camps atm.
There's a Rayn camp where Rayn townreads Jock/Slam/Vivax/Slam/Me with lot of people in that group townreading or more or less trusting each other.
Then there's a Trfel camp with Trfel having Rayn as his primary suspect and Hapa/ShoCkeyy voting Trfel mainly I believe to try to get rid of me.
Obviously I'd rather we consolidate on anyone outside of Trfel for Mayor and hope that Rayn's grasp on the game so far is good. (I think it is) Posting this from my phone and switching back over to my computer. Same things jump out to me about Tictock's filter, specifically his Day 2 reads about Hapahauli raynpelikoneet, and (most notably) Vivax. Tictock's explained them all and part of me thinks the explanation makes sense, but part of me still is unsure...
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Tictock
on Hapahauli:
+ Show Spoiler [analysis] +On November 26 2020 03:37 Tictock wrote:
Honestly reading the more recent bit of Hapa's filter I can see him being mafia.
His vote for Trfel as mayor is a bit weird and weak, says he is the "logical" choice. Scumread on Grack due to him campaigning for mayor and "soft-pushing" Trfel. I have a hard time believing Hapa has this good of a townread on Trfel.
Also does not seem that he has sus on Rayn so I'm not clear why Hapa would prefer Trfel>Rayn On November 26 2020 03:39 Tictock wrote:Show nested quote +On November 25 2020 00:41 Hapahauli wrote:
Re: Mayor - my mayoral preference would be Vivax or Rayn if I could confidently read them as town. I still desire to absolve myself of mayoral responsibility.
In general, we should be voting for someone who 1) is valuable to the town if alive, and 2) has a reasonable chance of getting shot on N1. Slam does not fit category 2, even if he looks super town. Even if Grack starts looking more town, he also does not fit category 2.
Of the players so far, I think Trfel fits both categories the best.
##Vote Trfel .... What? So Hapa has just ridden this rather than develop better reads on either Vivax or Rayn? On November 28 2020 10:03 Tictock wrote:
Honestly I am not totally sure how to read them well. I have only played with Hapa once and I was mafia so him not feeling as obviuse town as I was him that game is not a good basis for a read. Still that feeling and not really liking/agreeing with his reads this game has me a little sus. On November 29 2020 09:35 Tictock wrote:
Damn, that sucks.
I talked about my Hapa read with you already Trfel? Plus the roleblock thing seemed legit, even though you could argue Hapa was using that as cover to dodge the game. It's a weird time though and we just lynched a townie who had disappeared so prob not a good metric. It's not blatantly scummy or anything, I just really don't like this progression. The wording at the end there too, "the roleblock thing seemed legit," feels off. Why wouldn't it be legitimate, and especially since this is Night 2, wouldn't it be "seems" instead of "seemed"? It feels like he's trying to come up with justifications for his reads instead of explain what he actually thinks. I know this is a slight thing, but it seems that everyone is playing well (scum included), so slight things are the best I have.
Basically, day 2 Tictock was advocating lynching Jockmcplop (makes sense). He was also suspicious of Hapahauli and raynpelikoneet, to varying degrees. I note that his reads seem to always go after the "easy targets." He pushed the lynch for Jockmcplop all of Day 2, and then once Jockmcplop died, immediately started advocating for lynching Fecalfeast. While the whole time harboring suspicions against raynpelioneet and Hapahauli.
I don't know why he ended up townreading raynpelikoneet so strongly today either, given that he was suspicious of him earlier?
Nothing's too strong. I can't help but notice that Tictock continues to townread Vivax and dismiss the cases against Vivax, but again I'm awful at associations so I probably shouldn't go down that road. But even if nothing is super solid, there are still several question marks that make me suspicious of Tictock.
I know I'm babbling, but the way he POE'd himself down to Jockmcplop and ShoCkeyy, and then lightly townread ShoCkeyy and never mentioned that he could be scum again (how is he so sure?), and then lightly townread Fecalfeast, and then jumped immediately onto Fecalfeast after Jockmcplop flipped feels very mafia-motivated to me. It doesn't feel like he has the uncertainty of someone who is really trying to figure things out, or the suspicion of someone who isn't sure.
Maybe that's the better way to put it. There's a dissonance there. He's suspicious about some things (ex: raynpelikoneet and Hapahauli, even with the blue claim), but certain and decisive about lynching down the path of least resistance. Something like that, anyway.
Vivax and Tictock, current guess.
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@raynpelikoneet:
Other than the fact that there would be three blues in the setup, why is Hapahauli mafia here?
I just finished reading your filter, and it seems like the clinching argument is that Hapahauli was saying mafia couldn't kill him N2 because there was the threat of his mad hatter bomb blowing up Vivax. Is that correct?
Because I am under the impression (which could be wrong) that if he were to place the bomb and get shot in the same night, the bomb would still go off on the target. If that is not the case, then I agree with you that what Hapahauli is saying makes no sense and that would be suspect.
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On December 01 2020 01:44 Hapahauli wrote:Show nested quote +Second, how much do you know about my scum play? This question likely has a follow-up once you answer. Again, no rush. When I played with you in Holy Guardians 2, I had sat down and read a lot of your games. I had in my notes: + Show Spoiler +"TL Database has 2016 game. Probably too old to matter, but relatively inactive/passive play in 2 page filter. 2020 game in Emergency Quarantine Mafia - persona is more direct, confident, and aggressive. Still has bouts of "sadness", but more in a "pouty" way rather than an "unconfident" way. Town persona tends to be much more "unconfident" and "self-aware". As a result of the notes, I had you pegged as town super early and confidently in HG2. This game as well. Although to add to meta reasons, I think your JK claim is super town and horrifically risky to come from mafia. No reason to risk a binary lynch like that, or no reason to open a can of worms in the event of a 4th blue claim. Claim aside, I guess I'm curious about your characterization of my play. You described my mafia play as "passive," can I ask what that means to you? Because I think my mafia play is more active, more aggressive than my town play. I don't know what to do when I have no read to push, so I'm always pushing something. Over-aggression is a problem with my scum play I need to fix.
I suppose maybe it doesn't mean a ton if this is a perception you had from before the game, it just feels weird that your strong townread of me seems based off of a faulty scum meta? Or am I missing something?
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I have a few thoughts but nothing more to really add on top of what's already been said. Of course this changes if people suspect me, but given that no one seems to currently, it feels more valuable for me to watch what happens undisturbed.
With that said:
##Vote: Hapahauli
I can certainly understand why Hapahauli, as a claimed blue, wouldn't be killed. But it's so hard for me to understand why he wouldn't be roleblocked. And while I'm uncertain, I doubt the presence of three blues in the setup, especially given the bodyguard mechanic.
With that said: would someone be willing to explain to me what raynpelikoneet is saying about Hapahauli the past few pages that's so condemning? As I said on the last page, it seems to come down to role mechanics that I thought worked differently, but I seem to be horribly misreading.
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On December 01 2020 05:09 Hapahauli wrote:
Now I can nerd out and go on-and-on-and-on about meta. I am mal-adjusted enough to enjoy that.
But as a thought experiment - let's say my meta read is based on some fault or horrid misunderstanding of your play. Does a bad meta read make someone mafia? I think not, which makes this discussion kinda pointless in a game context. Yes, that's fair. Thanks, that does make sense.
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On December 01 2020 05:24 Hapahauli wrote:
Trfel, out of curiosity, why weren't you suspicious of me directly after my roleblock fiasco? A large portion of your read doubts the "3 blues" in the setup. From your perspective, you knew that I was the "3rd blue" from early D2 and onward. I was initially thinking that there could be three blues in the setup. It was the discussion (largely with raynpelikoneet) about blue claims that mostly changed my mind about that. Realizing that the bodyguard effectively counted as a confirmed town and that the Evil Mastermind would likely take a town, and three blues, makes the "special towns" (blues and bodyguard) outnumber the normal towns. It just feels really unlikely to me.
Despite my vote having been placed, I'm still around and here to talk about anything anyone deems productive.
Unfortunately, it seems that only Hapahauli is around currently, and I'm not sure how much more I have to discuss with him currently, we've already talked a lot is all. More interested in talking with Vivax and Tictock. Though, @Hapahauli, of course I'm more than happy to talk and I'm still looking into stuff.
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In addition to the previous post: I'm going to go and get some food and then try and figure out who the second mafia is (between Vivax and Tictock).
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On December 01 2020 05:34 Hapahauli wrote:Show nested quote +On December 01 2020 05:29 Trfel wrote:On December 01 2020 05:24 Hapahauli wrote:
Trfel, out of curiosity, why weren't you suspicious of me directly after my roleblock fiasco? A large portion of your read doubts the "3 blues" in the setup. From your perspective, you knew that I was the "3rd blue" from early D2 and onward. I was initially thinking that there could be three blues in the setup. It was the discussion (largely with raynpelikoneet) about blue claims that mostly changed my mind about that. Realizing that the bodyguard effectively counted as a confirmed town and that the Evil Mastermind would likely take a town, and three blues, makes the "special towns" (blues and bodyguard) outnumber the normal towns. It just feels really unlikely to me.
Despite my vote having been placed, I'm still around and here to talk about anything anyone deems productive. Unfortunately, it seems that only Hapahauli is around currently, and I'm not sure how much more I have to discuss with him currently, we've already talked a lot is all. More interested in talking with Vivax and Tictock. Though, @Hapahauli, of course I'm more than happy to talk and I'm still looking into stuff. Why is this setup not "balanced" if the Evil Mastermind takes a blue on N1? Or the town Mayor? I think a lot of your discussion discounts the sheer power of the role and the potential for chaos. If I am reading your post correctly, you also seem to be implying that the Evil Mastermind can only convert a VT, which is inaccurate to my knowledge. Honestly I'm not really sure much of the mechanics of the setup. There are still some basic questions about how my own role works that I probably should ask, like roleblock ordering and stuff.
Honestly I dunno if this setup is balanced any way you look at it. Interesting sure, but there are too many unpredictable things to make a balanced setup, depending on how long the blues stay alive and what the evil mastermind does.
But yes, I would be more than happy to try and find your scum-buddy. Can I ask why you currently prefer Vivax to Tictock, given that you seem to consider them both near 100% mafia? Or was it arbitrary?
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On December 01 2020 06:01 Fecalfeast wrote:
Arguing a claim based on game balance when we've already had a cult leader flip is not a good argument in my opinion and honestly hapa is making sense to me and his restraint from trying to take rayn down helps my opinion of him as well.
We still have a day so for now I'm putting my vote on TT to see how it suits me Nooo, Fecalfeast, you ruined it
Vote for Hapahauli again?
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On December 01 2020 06:19 Hapahauli wrote:Show nested quote +On December 01 2020 06:12 Trfel wrote:On December 01 2020 06:01 Fecalfeast wrote:
Arguing a claim based on game balance when we've already had a cult leader flip is not a good argument in my opinion and honestly hapa is making sense to me and his restraint from trying to take rayn down helps my opinion of him as well.
We still have a day so for now I'm putting my vote on TT to see how it suits me Nooo, Fecalfeast, you ruined it Vote for Hapahauli again? What exactly is ruined? FF is positioning himself well to lord over the townies who decide to lynch a blue. I'd say he's doing an excellent job. In all seriousness Trfel, you are expressing a lot of confusion over the setup and balance. How can you say then that this is a strong basis for lynching me? Yeah okay fine, I don't really want to lynch you, as we speak I'm typing up a post of all the reasons I think you're town
I was trying to make a play. I think it's a strong argument for your towniness that the votes all stacked up against you. How you haven't yet given up or stopped playing, and (especially) how raynpelikoneet, Vivax, and Tictock all were content to vote for you. Assuming Fecalfeast and I are both town, that means that if you are mafia, one of them is bussing you. It doesn't make sense for you to continue to try this hard and for them to vote for you so confidently, and with no second plan (not really looking past this one lynch). And I think this argument only gets stronger the longer the votes all stay that way and mafia does nothing about it (and potentially, the longer you keep trying to play the game, which is why I was still trying to engage with you despite "thinking you were mafia").
But Fecalfeast ruined it
That said, I still would like to know raynpelikoneet's argument against Hapahauli from a few pages ago I'm still trying to understand it but I'm just not seeing it. I probably should actually ask the hosts the billion questions I have for them about role mechanics.
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On December 01 2020 06:27 Hapahauli wrote:
##Vote GreYMisT
I knew I could count on you Trfel <3
Now if Rayn is stubborn, are you ready to YOLO Pardon me? It would be an objectively terrible play, but it would be hilarious and awesome. Haha, like I said, I'm not going to pardon anyone, even myself. Even if I weren't blue.
I should add, to all of the setup discussion, the fact that a pardoner exists also makes the game much, much harder for town. Especially in a game with potentially 2 non-town KP a night, having a chance for non-town to negate one of town's few opportunities to flip someone could be disastrous. And I think that needs to be factored into the game balance as well. For what it's worth.
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Reasons why I think Hapahauli is Town
(in no particular order)
1. Hapahauli's play makes sense and is towny this game.
Hapahauli has been constantly sharing his reads and backing them up with well-thought arguments. But I suppose Hapahauli's towniness is up to your own opinion. I've never seen Hapahauli play as mafia, and I'm especially horrid at meta'ing games I haven't played in so I don't expect to be reading any mafia!Hapahauli games, but I am under the impression that he's not able to mimic his townplay as mafia. This game would be a pretty heroic effort for Hapahauli to be mafia here.
2. All of the votes stacked up on Hapahauli, and he didn't give up or stop playing.
Keep in mind, that unless you think I am mafia, or (to a lesser extent) that Fecalfeast is mafia, Hapahauli is presumably getting bussed here. So why did he not give up or back down on the effort? Even when I said he was mafia, he offered to keep playing and help me find his scum-buddy. This only makes sense if he's trying to incriminate a player who isn't voting for him (which, at a stretch, would be me or Fecalfeast; and everyone seems to assume we are town), or if he is actually town.
3. The way all of the votes stacked up against Hapahauli shows that mafia are okay with this.
Tictock and Vivax (I suppose also raynpelikoneet, though I don't think he is mafia) are both happy to vote for Hapahauli. Looking at Vivax's filter, he hasn't made very many posts recently but he has been spending those posts pushing Hapahauli while also being suspicious of both Tictock and raynpelikoneet. To me, this feels much more like he's looking one lynch ahead rather than two. Tictock voted for Hapahauli while having strong (but not 100% certain) townreads on both raynpelikoneet and me, and then eventually posts some reasons for Vivax being mafia. It's nowhere near as suspicious as Vivax's play, but I still get a little of a sense that he's not really trying to figure things out, especially past today.
4. If Hapahauli is mafia, why didn't he just 1v1 me?
Raynpelikoneet was very suspicious of me. Only Hapahauli and Vivax were really townreading me, I believe. If Hapahauli is mafia, he had the perfect excuse to tunnel me (the blues contradiction), and he's already shown that he is willing to put in a lot of effort to be persuasive. I like to think I'm an okay player, but I'm not a leader-type and I'm not as persuasive, I think we all know what would realistically happen if it came down to a 1v1 between me and Hapahauli like that, especially with me starting out being more scumread than Hapahauli.
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On December 01 2020 07:15 Hapahauli wrote:
FYI, I did confirm roleblock mechanics with the host.
The Jailkeeper is divided into 2 actions:
1) A roleblock that resolves first...
2) And THEN a save.
This roleblock has the same priority as the mafia RB.
So, in the scenario where:
Player A is Jailkeeper
Player B is Mafia RB
Player C is a townie
If Player A JK's Player B, and;
If Player B both RB's Player A and shoots Player C;
Player C survives that interaction, and Player B's KP is blocked.
Therefore, we are in a position tomorrow (assuming we lynch mafia today) where Trfel, even if he is shot, can RB someone and confirm them as town or mafia. Yeah, I checked as well, found it surprising but favorable. Even if we mislynch today there's still a 33-50% chance of gaining another lynch.
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EPT
