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On November 30 2020 08:39 Trfel wrote:Show nested quote +On November 30 2020 08:30 Hapahauli wrote:
Trfel - talk to me about this "you or me" thing. Why does one of us have to be mafia?
Obviously throw out everything I'm about to say if we have another blue claim, but 2 mafia + Evil Mastermind is a fucking disaster for town without a lot of blue-role backup. In my view, you're confirmed town with FF. Yes, I agree that that is a terrible setup for town. And honestly, this is where things get complicated for me with the whole setup thing. 2 mafia, 1 evil mastermind, 7 town seems like a really rough setup. However, the bodyguard also confirms a town. Going down to 6 town when (presumably) the evil mastermind recruits a town, if all of us are blue you are saying that 4/6 town in the game are confirmed? Three blues and a bodyguard? That seems a bit ridiculous to me. I agree that maybe that's actually more balanced... it just feels excessive? I've only ever seen three blues in a non-mason game once before I think, mayyyybe twice... but last time it happened, I think we would have been more likely to win the game if it wasn't for having three blues because that made one of the blues doubt the alignment of another. I guess it's not for sure but it seems likely, setup-wise? Because that would be so many confirmed town. Also, in a setup with so much KP, would they really put more KP in the game? I would have maybe expected another doctor or something to try and gain town an extra mislynch, but more KP seems strange. I dunno for sure. I feel like you are towny otherwise, I looked through your filter and I don't see good reasons to call you mafia... But it's really really hard for me to see four confirmed town in a 10-player game.
Thing is, you are forgetting about the Evil Mastermind, and how much that fucks town if a blue is recruited.
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3 blues is certainly a town "buff".
But is also a 3p buff.
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On November 30 2020 08:42 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On November 30 2020 08:40 Hapahauli wrote:On November 30 2020 08:37 raynpelikoneet wrote:On November 30 2020 08:35 Hapahauli wrote:On November 30 2020 08:34 raynpelikoneet wrote:
i want you guys to explanin (hapa and trfel) why this game has 50% of the townies blue? Because if this exact scenario. A "normally" balanced Mini is usually 3 mislynches = loss. With the "evil mastermind" in the setup, 2 mislynches = loss. Town needs a fuckton of help in this seutp. i think 2 blues and a confirmed town in bg is already enough. Now why am i mafia? In my mind, it's you, TT, or Vivax. Of the three, I am probably the most confident in Vivax being mafia. I have to sit down and read you and TT, and I will likely not have thoughts until a very deep readthrough. A readthrough that I won't do right this second, because talking with you and Trfel is the priority. But you said it's me and Vivax most likely? Like i know you prolly have vivax as your top scum but hah....
Rayn, you are too good of a player for me to point at anything specific in your filter to find a scumslip. That is not a realistic way of how I am going to catch you. And even if there is something "suspicious", it's not like there's a way to argue against it. You're a good scum player, and I respect that.
But my sense of your play is twofold:
1) You have been more "passive" than normal. I have had the "luck" of being able to really easily town read you based on your "rage" in the last two games I've played with you, and I do not have that luxury this game.
2) Nothing that you are doing is out of the scope of your scumplay.
Fuck, I can even come up with good reasons against why my reads don't hold water, so you don't have to do it for me. But right now, we're in process of elimination territory.
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On November 30 2020 08:42 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On November 30 2020 08:41 Hapahauli wrote:On November 30 2020 08:39 Trfel wrote:On November 30 2020 08:30 Hapahauli wrote:
Trfel - talk to me about this "you or me" thing. Why does one of us have to be mafia?
Obviously throw out everything I'm about to say if we have another blue claim, but 2 mafia + Evil Mastermind is a fucking disaster for town without a lot of blue-role backup. In my view, you're confirmed town with FF. Yes, I agree that that is a terrible setup for town. And honestly, this is where things get complicated for me with the whole setup thing. 2 mafia, 1 evil mastermind, 7 town seems like a really rough setup. However, the bodyguard also confirms a town. Going down to 6 town when (presumably) the evil mastermind recruits a town, if all of us are blue you are saying that 4/6 town in the game are confirmed? Three blues and a bodyguard? That seems a bit ridiculous to me. I agree that maybe that's actually more balanced... it just feels excessive? I've only ever seen three blues in a non-mason game once before I think, mayyyybe twice... but last time it happened, I think we would have been more likely to win the game if it wasn't for having three blues because that made one of the blues doubt the alignment of another. I guess it's not for sure but it seems likely, setup-wise? Because that would be so many confirmed town. Also, in a setup with so much KP, would they really put more KP in the game? I would have maybe expected another doctor or something to try and gain town an extra mislynch, but more KP seems strange. I dunno for sure. I feel like you are towny otherwise, I looked through your filter and I don't see good reasons to call you mafia... But it's really really hard for me to see four confirmed town in a 10-player game. Thing is, you are forgetting about the Evil Mastermind, and how much that fucks town if a blue is recruited. MY POINT EXACTLY; WHY YOU CLAIM STINKKKKKKKKKKKKKSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS!
Then why didn't you vote me yesterday? I all but claimed in my posting after my roleblock claim fiasco that I was a Mad Hatter. This should have been apparent to you then.
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And I know you aren't stupid enough not to pick up on that.
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On November 27 2020 06:17 Hapahauli wrote:Show nested quote +On November 27 2020 06:13 raynpelikoneet wrote:On November 27 2020 06:11 Hapahauli wrote:On November 27 2020 06:08 raynpelikoneet wrote:
I am thinking if i can actually solve the game right now. Mechanically speaking, a VT. It would mean that in the remainder of the town, there would be 1-2 blue claims (given the 2 scum + evil mastermind, there is likely another town blue floating around to give the town a chance), in addition to 1 confirmed bodyguard claim. Pretty hard for scum to overcome. what? If I was mayor (in your position), I'd want to be VT, because it would be slightly easier for me to "solve" the game from my perspective in a mass claim situation. If you are referring to whether or not a mayor should be VT or Blue in general, it just depends on the blue role we are talking about. Mayor CPR doc is obviously insane. Mayor JK is pretty insane. Mayor [investigative role] is pretty good, though that is unlikely given Slam's flip.
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In that whole post, I'm saying that running for mayor is good with CPR Doc, JK, and Investigative role.
So if I'm not running for mayor, that leaves two things: Mad Hatter or Vigi.
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And running for mayor is pretty insane with vigi, since I could shoot someone and instantly confirm the mayor role as town.
Mad Hatter is the only damn role in the game that I wouldn't run for mayor, because I basically can't use the fucking role if I'm mayor.
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On November 30 2020 08:54 raynpelikoneet wrote:
likewhat is the dioffernce? VT, mafia, mad hatter, vigi? For you. How am i suppose to to do anything with that info, aside from telling you are NOT VT.
My post admits that it is a good idea to run for mayor with a shit ton of blue roles. The flip side is that it is not necessarily optimal to run with certain roles, or really, a particular role. I wonder which one I left out of that post.
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On November 30 2020 08:56 Trfel wrote:Show nested quote +On November 30 2020 08:53 Hapahauli wrote:
And running for mayor is pretty insane with vigi, since I could shoot someone and instantly confirm the mayor role as town.
Mad Hatter is the only damn role in the game that I wouldn't run for mayor, because I basically can't use the fucking role if I'm mayor. Huh, interesting.......... So you didn't run for mayor purely because of your Mad Hatter role? In that, you were hoping to die and take someone out with you?
Correct.
My view was that:
1) I wanted to actually use my role, and/or;
2) If mafia was smart enough to pick up on that from the setup, I basically was guaranteed to stay alive and dodge shots, regardless of whether or not I was "protected".
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This is one of the things that actually points to mafia-Rayn as opposed to town-Rayn, because I find it very unlikely that he didn't speculate about my role and which role in the setup would make sense if I didn't want to run for mayor.
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On November 27 2020 06:30 raynpelikoneet wrote:
I genuinely thought you were a vet because to me it only made sense why you would not run for mayor, then i saw there is no vet in the roles....
And as a reminder, he read the setup in detail.,
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Anyway, I'm ranting. I'm going to do a deep read, sleep on things, and give more collected thoughts tomorrow.
I'll be around to chat for the rest of the night otherwise while I'm taking notes.
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On November 30 2020 09:01 Tictock wrote:Show nested quote +On November 30 2020 08:30 Hapahauli wrote:
Trfel - talk to me about this "you or me" thing. Why does one of us have to be mafia?
Obviously throw out everything I'm about to say if we have another blue claim, but 2 mafia + Evil Mastermind is a fucking disaster for town without a lot of blue-role backup. In my view, you're confirmed town with FF. You are not considering Mayor/Pardoner/Bodyguard as town favored balancing.
This is a fair point. Bodyguard is a +town thing.
I don't know much about balancing with 3P but EM isn't that strong of a role that I think town needs 3 blues.
Incorrect. Think about this: EM can recruit the fucking mayor. I didn't see any rule against that. Do you realize how insane that is?
Also giving town a hatter to compensate 3P KP doesn't make much sense to me as that seems like it would make the game even harder for town.
Also incorrect. Consider the situation that we are in: me killing a fellow townie (in the event that I got shot) does not at all change how many mislynches the town is allowed.
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I think it was very easily deduced from my posting about what blue role I was.
As for why I wasn't killed, two plausible reasons:
1) I basically afk'd for 3 days.
2) Why would you shoot the Mad Hatter if you believe he is likely to deliver KP on mafia (i.e. Vivax)?
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On November 30 2020 09:31 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On November 30 2020 09:10 Hapahauli wrote:
I think it was very easily deduced from my posting about what blue role I was.
As for why I wasn't killed, two plausible reasons:
1) I basically afk'd for 3 days.
2) Why would you shoot the Mad Hatter if you believe he is likely to deliver KP on mafia (i.e. Vivax)? Literally, whywould youbelieve you have a bomb on someone if you were rb'd N1?
You are making way too many assumptions into what I am saying.
I didn't believe that I had a "bomb" on Vivax. Nowhere do I state that, beyond saying that I targeted him on N1 and was roleblocked.
If mafia chooses not to roleblock me on N2, they are not going to shoot me, because from their perspective, I am still fairly likely (given my filter) to bomb Vivax, who I believe is mafia.
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On November 30 2020 09:16 Trfel wrote:Show nested quote +On November 30 2020 09:10 Hapahauli wrote:
I think it was very easily deduced from my posting about what blue role I was.
As for why I wasn't killed, two plausible reasons:
1) I basically afk'd for 3 days.
2) Why would you shoot the Mad Hatter if you believe he is likely to deliver KP on mafia (i.e. Vivax)? As for point 2, that requires mafia being extremely smart.... I don't know if mafia is that smart  I suppose they could have assumed that I would jailkeep you again, thus roleblocking you, but that seems risky.
All I am saying is that you can piece it together from my filter. What is the only role in the entire blue-list that cannot be used as mayor? It's not that hard to put together, and you don't have to be that smart to put it together.
Also, why wouldn't the assumption that I be "saved" again be unlikely from a mafia perspective?
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On November 30 2020 09:40 raynpelikoneet wrote:Show nested quote +On November 30 2020 09:31 raynpelikoneet wrote:On November 30 2020 09:10 Hapahauli wrote:
I think it was very easily deduced from my posting about what blue role I was.
As for why I wasn't killed, two plausible reasons:
1) I basically afk'd for 3 days.
2) Why would you shoot the Mad Hatter if you believe he is likely to deliver KP on mafia (i.e. Vivax)? Literally, whywould youbelieve you have a bomb on someone if you were rb'd N1? Explain this then Hapa?
You are misreading my post.
I do not believe I had any chance of killing Vivax on N1.
I'm saying that if you look at my filter objectively from the start of N2, who is my likely target for a bomb? I believe it is Vivax.
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On November 30 2020 09:43 Tictock wrote:Show nested quote +On November 30 2020 09:37 Hapahauli wrote:
If mafia chooses not to roleblock me on N2, they are not going to shoot me, because from their perspective, I am still fairly likely (given my filter) to bomb Vivax, who I believe is mafia. So you agree that mafia should have RB and Killed you?
I believe mafia had two reasonable plays:
1) They can RB/Kill me if they think I am difficult to lynch in MYLO;
2) If they think I'm not a "dangerous" blue role, they can try to snipe the bodyguard or another blue role.
Mafia know that I was JK'd N1. Would they risk shooting me knowing that I am a target for protection? I think not, but you be the judge.
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On November 30 2020 09:46 Tictock wrote:
And if you are going to say, well mafia didn't RB me D1 it was Trfel
Then who did the RB on Trfel?
Mafia Roleblocker obviously, unless another JK wants to claim.
If Mafia RB'd a VT on D1, that VT doesn't receive a notification.
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EPT
