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[N] Uninspired Mafia - Page 11

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Pandain
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States12989 Posts
May 08 2019 11:56 GMT
#1980
I just have an extremely strong feeling MZ is going to flip town. Like I said, it would have made no sense to push FF if he was in the endgame and FF was very very townread.

Like there was no reason to assume the lynch would change. So if he was scum he was just giving up? Doesn't seem like it.
Pandain
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States12989 Posts
May 08 2019 11:57 GMT
#1981
I would lynch Grack then slam.
Pandain
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States12989 Posts
May 08 2019 12:11 GMT
#1985
It's not just about activity. Anyone, even mafia, can be active. It's about meaningful activity, and clearly showing that you care about the game and seriously showing that you're trying to solve it.

It's also part of why Slam is suspicious. He has 8 pages of filter and I don't actually think one is a good post. I mean he's a spammer but is he normally this bad?
Pandain
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States12989 Posts
May 08 2019 12:13 GMT
#1987
On May 08 2019 21:02 VisceraEyes wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 08 2019 20:57 Pandain wrote:
I would lynch Grack then slam.

Why the opposite conclusion?



You can read my prior post on grack here:
On May 06 2019 06:53 Pandain wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 05 2019 02:16 Grackaroni wrote:
I think we should lynch Pandain.

After rereading his filter I don't like that he makes such a hard turn into being super sure Vivax is the best lynch at the end of the day and tries to milk the credit for voting him for all that it's worth. Rayn put him in a spot where he pretty much had to vote Vivax but there wasn't much chance of Vivax actually dying at the end of the day when the only people posting were me/Pandain/Rayn.


I don't like this post at all. First of all, the last sentence is extremely and obviously false, and looks like he's just trying to make up stuff. The idea I felt forced by Rayn to vote Vivax is extremely ridiculous and I'm not sure how anyone actually can come to that conclusion, particuarly since he was there when it was happening.

But second of all, and more importantly, it actually reveals his own mindset during the lynch. Grack, in his own words, thought there was very little chance of Vivax dying. Unlike me, and it basically completely negates his own vote on Vivax.

Show nested quote +
On May 05 2019 02:23 Grackaroni wrote:
From the way I saw it Vivax was a pretty good lynch just from lynching into a player that wasn't posting (and also is bad at scum) without having any strong scum reads but I didn't think he had all that much better odds of flipping mafia than most of the other players from just his two posts.

I think Pandain really played up the end of the day vote after Rayn said he wanted to vote Vivax. This reads to me like: "now that I'm bussing I want to get as much credit as possible from the vote."

On May 02 2019 04:50 Pandain wrote:
I'm down to lynch vivax. Lets go?


On May 02 2019 04:52 Pandain wrote:
Vivax is a great lynch. He's always obvious town when he's town and super active. Compare that with this game where it is not obvious at all and he's barely contributed (but enough to "pass")


On May 02 2019 04:53 Pandain wrote:
Grack join the train. You know me and you are mafia bros. Let's lynch scum together.


On May 02 2019 04:54 Pandain wrote:
Who else is here? There's gotta be mafia lurking.


On May 02 2019 04:57 Pandain wrote:
Fuck I think Vivax was the best lynch actually. Where is everyone.



This also makes no sense. I was trying to get as much credit as possible from the bus? But actually I was only able to get credit because Vivax was modkilled, something no one could have predicted day one.

And in his own words, "Vivax was very unlikely to get lynched." So in that scenario I would have never gotten any credit (because no flip), and instead I would have just thrown Vivax under the bus for day 2.


Show nested quote +
On May 05 2019 02:56 Grackaroni wrote:
On May 03 2019 04:54 raynpelikoneet wrote:
Vivax
Wherebugsgo
Pandain
(Fecalfeast)


VE is never mafia for anyone who will question it later. He is just too invested in teh game, i think that was the only unexplained read i had. Goodluck.

Fwiw I bet Rayn had 2 of these reads right.

I don't think he got killed just over Vivax.


Trying to sheep Rayn's analysis, which is the same exact thing mafia koshi tried to do. Seems mafia was trying to get people to follow dead town Rayn's analysis, and Grack is doing the same thing here.


I also don't like how he hardcore defended HF and said he's super obviously townie.
Show nested quote +
On May 05 2019 02:10 Grackaroni wrote:
What the fuck guys.

Holyflare's filter is super super townie.


This is the weakest of my points. But I don't think it was actually obvious and there were lots of good points made against him. I think dismissing them like this suggests inside knowledge.


Anyway just some thoughts. I'm going to do meta analysis tomorrow if I have time. Still not placing a vote but definitely more suspicious of Grack.



Slam is useless. Whether it's because of time or because he's mafia, he's been useless. His filter is so sporadic and random I don't even understand many of his posts. So I want to lynch him, but there's just a huge element of randomness that I would want to do it last.
Pandain
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States12989 Posts
May 08 2019 12:15 GMT
#1988
I mean I 100% want to lynch Slam. If I could shoot someone for free it would be Slam.

I'm more bewildered by Slam than anything else. But if he coasts to victory as mafia as the "hahaha, I'm so busy and random LOL" I'm going to actually lose it.
Pandain
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States12989 Posts
May 08 2019 12:19 GMT
#1989
I mean if you want to actually try to analyze slam you find terrible things:

Complains about time but uses it uselessly
1. Whole last day was going through HF filter (why would we even think HF is accurate, and I think town has been pretty good so far on Vivax and Koshi even though they didn't die from getting lynched). It was all useless and spammy and pointless an

Wanted to vote me and never ever justified it. Even said he wanted to martyr
Like half his posts are spam, 1/4 are HF posts, and 1/4 are about me. But he never justified it even after I asked him.

But is this because he's mafia or because he's just useless?
Pandain
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States12989 Posts
May 08 2019 12:20 GMT
#1990
When your main argument against him is "he never mentioned Koshi!" you know that it's a pretty weak argument. And it's not because he's not mafia, it's because there's literally nothing in the filter you can analyze. He might as well not have posted at all than post 8 pages, it's the same result.
Pandain
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States12989 Posts
May 08 2019 12:22 GMT
#1991
But the man needs to die. Even as a late policy lynch and even if he's town.

If you are able to have 8 pages you are not "low on time", at least not enough to the point where you are this useless and incapable of doing a single actual analysis. Both as town and mafia, it's inexcusable to have the amount of useless spam, sheeping, and generally uncomprehensible material.
Pandain
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States12989 Posts
May 08 2019 12:28 GMT
#1993
And I really really don't like how certain Grack was on HF. I mean we know that bugs, BC, VE, and FF were all town and they thought there were serious concerns.

Grack pops in during the HF lynch to say:
On May 05 2019 02:10 Grackaroni wrote:
What the fuck guys.

Holyflare's filter is super super townie.


But he later admits he hadn't even read the case on him:
On May 05 2019 02:54 Grackaroni wrote:
I'm reading through your filter atm VE so I'll see what your case on HF is.


Pandain
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States12989 Posts
May 08 2019 12:34 GMT
#2000
Okay I'm convinced it lends to a scum read. I'm okay with lynching them in whatever order, as long as they both get lynched.

And it's ok VE, I led the lynch away from MZ/Grack/Slam towards someone a townie most people were already reading as town :p. We wouldn't even have to be worrying about this if I hadn't made the FF post.
Pandain
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States12989 Posts
May 08 2019 12:36 GMT
#2001
On May 08 2019 21:34 wherebugsgo wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 08 2019 21:28 Pandain wrote:
And I really really don't like how certain Grack was on HF. I mean we know that bugs, BC, VE, and FF were all town and they thought there were serious concerns.

Grack pops in during the HF lynch to say:
On May 05 2019 02:10 Grackaroni wrote:
What the fuck guys.

Holyflare's filter is super super townie.


But he later admits he hadn't even read the case on him:
On May 05 2019 02:54 Grackaroni wrote:
I'm reading through your filter atm VE so I'll see what your case on HF is.




I agree on this, particularly as prior to that I didn’t have the impression that grack was closely following the game. If he were more present, I’d buy that he’d been reading and had come to some conclusion, but if that were the case he’d have tried to interact with us and slow down the momentum.

Every time grack has some resistance to a lynch though that resistance doesn’t seem to be real/come in a townie fashion. I think townies would interject whenever necessary to prevent mislynches. I’m not getting that impression.

There are lots of other factors at play here though. Like I’ve seen bad things in both grack’s and MZ’s play and one has to be town


I thought about that but Grack actually does have lots of posts arguing why HF shouldn't be lynched.

But it doesn't mean that much to me anyway, because as I know the other lynch he was pushing was on a townie (me).
Pandain
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States12989 Posts
May 08 2019 12:41 GMT
#2006
He made the first post 2 hours 50 minutes before EoD, start seriously pushing to not lynch HF an hour and 20 minutes before EoD. But he made a decent amount of posts. You're right he didn't start immediately defending HF, but he was active from then on.

I mean dude I'm with you I think he's scummy. But as this is mafia, there could be many explanations and it's not definitive.
Pandain
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States12989 Posts
May 08 2019 12:42 GMT
#2007
I don't know why I'm defending someone I want to get lynched.

Nevermind bugs, you're 100% right and the reasoning is brilliant. Let's lynch Grack
Pandain
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States12989 Posts
May 08 2019 12:43 GMT
#2008
On May 08 2019 21:39 VisceraEyes wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 08 2019 21:36 Pandain wrote:
On May 08 2019 21:34 wherebugsgo wrote:
On May 08 2019 21:28 Pandain wrote:
And I really really don't like how certain Grack was on HF. I mean we know that bugs, BC, VE, and FF were all town and they thought there were serious concerns.

Grack pops in during the HF lynch to say:
On May 05 2019 02:10 Grackaroni wrote:
What the fuck guys.

Holyflare's filter is super super townie.


But he later admits he hadn't even read the case on him:
On May 05 2019 02:54 Grackaroni wrote:
I'm reading through your filter atm VE so I'll see what your case on HF is.




I agree on this, particularly as prior to that I didn’t have the impression that grack was closely following the game. If he were more present, I’d buy that he’d been reading and had come to some conclusion, but if that were the case he’d have tried to interact with us and slow down the momentum.

Every time grack has some resistance to a lynch though that resistance doesn’t seem to be real/come in a townie fashion. I think townies would interject whenever necessary to prevent mislynches. I’m not getting that impression.

There are lots of other factors at play here though. Like I’ve seen bad things in both grack’s and MZ’s play and one has to be town


I thought about that but Grack actually does have lots of posts arguing why HF shouldn't be lynched.

But it doesn't mean that much to me anyway, because as I know the other lynch he was pushing was on a townie (me).

This isn't meaningless though, because there's no guarantee he could have landed a lynch on you if he convinced anyone off HF.


The only two votes that were going to happen, 100%, was me and HF. And in fact most people were suspicious about me at that point and I think most of the HF voters had originally voted me. So if he convinced someone off of them it would probably go to me; even you and BC were still very suspicious of me at that point.

Pandain
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States12989 Posts
May 08 2019 12:46 GMT
#2011
On May 08 2019 21:44 wherebugsgo wrote:
idk I think grack’s push on me actually makes him seem really townie.

Like if I were town in his situation and I didn’t agree with you, VE, I probably wouldn’t rule myself out as scum. Like, from that perspective I don’t think he sees a good reason to townread me because he’s aware to some degree that I can play an active scum game.

Unlike slam, who I think doesn’t have enough in the way of opinion-conveying posts, my problem on grack is that it is sometimes hard to follow the logic and rationale for his thoughts. The actual results of those thoughts aren’t my terrible.

I also recognize that a scum here would know they need to paint both myself and Pandain badly because it helps in endgame when only one of us is alive


The bottom is important. One of bugs and I are going to be alive in the endgame.

Also let's not forget that BC's main scumread was Grack.

As to the above, I don't really understand why Grack's push on you makes him townie. Explain?
Pandain
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States12989 Posts
May 08 2019 12:48 GMT
#2012
On May 08 2019 21:45 wherebugsgo wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 08 2019 21:42 Pandain wrote:
I don't know why I'm defending someone I want to get lynched.

Nevermind bugs, you're 100% right and the reasoning is brilliant. Let's lynch Grack


I’m really like 50% on grack. Like I said above I see huge variance in his posts, like some I’d say look really townish and others just make me think no townie would ever post that


Mafia is great at making townish points. It's because they actually know what is happening in the game and the "right" thing to do and say.

You have to find the things that don't make sense and focus on them.

I remember ver or Qatol or Incognoto saying one time that "90% of a posts by a scum are probably okay, it's the 10% slipups that you have to focus on"

Pandain
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States12989 Posts
May 08 2019 12:49 GMT
#2014
I know it's not certain at all but I hope that from pushing both Vivax and Koshi and my play the last two days it's obvious I'm town at least to the same degree it's obvious that bugs is town.

Would you two agree?

That will definitely help us in the endgame.
Pandain
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States12989 Posts
May 08 2019 12:59 GMT
#2021
I'm perfectly okay with lynching Slam first tomorrow.

It's just next would be Grack and not MZ for me.
Pandain
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States12989 Posts
May 08 2019 12:59 GMT
#2024
You convinced me that I'm indifferent between them.

I have a very strong town read on bugs.
Slight town read on MZ.

And then Slam/Grack are the same moderate scum read.
Pandain
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States12989 Posts
May 08 2019 13:14 GMT
#2031
What does it even mean to work in a vault?

Does he live in the Fallout universe?

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