EPTOn March 14 2019 07:59 LightningStrike wrote:
Acro move to Chez.
Acro move to Chez.
No.
End of the World Party Mafia - Page 27
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Well, that was pointless. Seems unlikely this isn't lylo. | ||
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I don't think vivax is scum for this. But all the last minute hopping was pretty dumb. Why the fuck are all the townies jumping about 2 minutes before lunch? | ||
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On March 14 2019 08:26 LightningStrike wrote: TS still needs to get lynched though too.... Nah. No way of knowing this wasn't two town wagons. If you're town, then you know all the last minute hops were town, so there were no scum shenanigans. And if you're scum, then we don't want to follow your lunch suggestions. | ||
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On March 14 2019 08:29 Vivax wrote: Acrofales why does my argument only reach to you one minute before EoD? Because I am an idiot | ||
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On March 14 2019 08:31 LightningStrike wrote: If TS is scum though wouldn't it be wise for a mafia to just change their vote to save their buddy in EoD shannies like that? We can't clear all the vote switching on that alone. Chezinu wasn't an option until half an hour before lunch. Last minute hops were: Vivax: tried to jump back Slam: jumped back You: maybe scum Me: jumped the other way So... no scum was jumping at the last minute to kill chezinu except you. | ||
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On March 14 2019 08:36 LightningStrike wrote: I am town though. Unless you think mafia is sleeping at EoD there is no way to really tell though? So if you're town, then you know there was no scum shenannying ONTO Chezinu. And that means they weren't trying to save TS. | ||
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On March 14 2019 08:36 Vivax wrote: Alright, next guess, with a decent amount of tinfoil in it, especially on jock and acrofales. Oats, TS, DF, Rels, Jock, and one of MZ or Onegu for last, not sure for mafia Acrofales for serial killer If this is correct, mafia is just aiming to eliminate townies until they can get rid of acrofales through a lynch and acrofales needs to kill mafia tonight. I would fucking love to have the KP to shoot scum. Unfortunately I spent my single bullet on Damdred. | ||
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On March 14 2019 08:36 Vivax wrote: Alright, next guess, with a decent amount of tinfoil in it, especially on jock and acrofales. Oats, TS, DF, Rels, Jock, and one of MZ or Onegu for last, not sure for mafia Acrofales for serial killer If this is correct, mafia is just aiming to eliminate townies until they can get rid of acrofales through a lynch and acrofales needs to kill mafia tonight. If you think TS is scum, why don't you think scum tried to save him? | ||
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On March 14 2019 08:43 Mocsta wrote: In hindsight the claim of a 2nd vet is SO FUCKN STUPID and outrageous it had to be true the problem is, once you set that precedence i can finally tell you who i parity checked. Lol. Why are you bringing out the big.play fakeclaims on N4? Rofl | ||
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Moreover, TS didn't try to save himself by voting Chezinu. At the time of his surrender the competiting wagon was Onegu, so I didn't find it too surprising, but unless TS and Onegu are scum together and all the scum is afk at the deadline, it looks like TS is a town wagon, and he had just given up on defending himself. In general, Slam waffling about and ending up on what is at least not the wrong wagon feel very towny. Other than that, I'm just upset that I make a giant case on how townie Chezinu is and you go and lunch him. Like, that's twice this game, and this time I don't get to blame HF. It was clearly a collective town fail. | ||
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Thanks. | ||
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Formula 1: #scum/2 rounded up (traitor doesn't count) 10 town vs 5 scum Lynch scum, kill 2 town: 8v4 Lynch scum, kill 2 town: 6v3 Lynch scum, kill 1 town: 5v2 Breathing space: town bought themselves a final mislynch. If you lynch town: Lynch town, kill 3 town: 6v5 Lynch scum, kill 2 town: 4v4 and it's over. So HAVE TO kill 3 scum in a row. Formula 2: flat 3 KP, unknown number of mafia: 15-X vs X Lynch scum, kill 3 town: 12 - X vs X - 1. Lynch scum, kill 3 town: 9 - X vs X - 2. Lynch scum, kill 3 town: 6 - X vs X - 3. Lunch scum, kill 3 town??? 3- X vs X - 4. This obviously cannot continue and the last scum must be dead here, so X <= 4 in this scenario. X < 4 would make the scumread too small for the game, IMHO. So balance says that scum should be exactly 4 here, and to win, town needs to kill all scum in a row, starting now. So what I'll do tonight is give you a list of the 4 scummiest shits and you lynch them in order. If KP stays 3, then you are in the bottom scenario and every day is lylo. If you're in the top scenario, you can take a brief breath after killing the three scummers. Obviously I'm expecting to be dead tomorrow, but maybe there's a backup medic. Who knows. | ||
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Who not to lynch: Confirmed town: Acrofales: says so in my role pm Pandain replaced by AMG replaced by Pandain: led the lynch off ace and onto sentinel. Town: Fecalfeast: counterclaimed hatter, didn't get shot for having a bomb on a veteran townie. Also for wifom (and scum made it work). Vivax: seems a bit all over the place, but nothing indicates scumvax. Also, point me to a vivax scumgame where he has a 20 page filter. LightningStrike: has been playing townie. tubesock: the way the wagon played out. Also start of game "feels". Mr. Wiggles: started rocky, but the radio show is both fun and informative. Would make me sad if he's scum, so I refuse to believe that. It also makes me sad that our playtimes literally never coincide. Rels: role reasons only. The way he is using his role seems townie, and both rsoultin and LS appear to think he's behaving townie with it. But I have not seen enough scumhunting to be suuuuper confident here. Still, pretty likely town. Alakaslam: waffling about with his vote in a way I don't think scum does. Low effort into scumhunting, but that's probably slammy, rather than scummy. Mocsta: despite some lingering doubts, he just seems to be playing in a carefree not-too-angry way. He's wily as scum, but I don't think he's that wily. He has not been tunneled, has had good insights (unfortunately, like most of us so far, on town reads), and is one of the more active players in the game. I was actually planning on putting him with the corner cases, but upgraded to town, because it just looks right. Corner Cases I'll put a bit more effort into these, because this is probably where scum is gonna try to push the mislynch to, if you let them. Also, because I am fallible and might be wrong, so should probably give my reasoning. JockMcPlop Honestly, reading through his filter he just looks like a lost and bewildered townie, trying to keep up with the thread and the reasoning and not quite managing. I mean, it might be a total cop-out, but I think this is likely a totally truthful account of why Jock kinda dropped off in usefulness after the beginning of N2 or so (also, he claims being sick. I loved Kita's flavour! It's like half the game is cursed by an assortment of maladies, since killing our medic): + Show Spoiler [jock is clueless townie] + On March 13 2019 19:39 Jockmcplop wrote: Here's the problem I'm having at the moment: At first it was pretty fun going through filters and looking for contradictions and errors in consistency that could lead me to think people are scum. Everyone was doing the same things and some of my points were taken on board. As the game has progressed, more reads are to do with obscure/complex game mechanics and long chains of logic and with this stuff I genuinely have nothing to add and feel a bit stupid because I wouldn't know where to begin looking to get reads like that. The last 2 days (game time) I have been mostly confused and a little bit out of the game because of it. I'm reading everything and trying to get up to speed but the nature of the game at this point has completely changed from the beginning and I feel disadvantaged by it. Also, this was frigging hilarious, and I don't think scum playing the persona of someone lost and confused bothers to play threadcop a couple of hours later upon reentering the thread: On March 14 2019 00:42 Jockmcplop wrote: SLAM You've had your page, mate, no more posting for you until page 387 So absolutely, big drop in activity and usefulness since D1, but the feels are still there and the justification for why is completely coherent with a townie. Trust me, I got a good feeling about this guy. Nullish Meapack_Ziphh Remember how we concluded from the D1 and D2 votes that scum was just afk letting us do our thing? The above two guys fit the bill, and so does Mr MZ. Also with what is a completely plausible excuse: he's flying around the whole country on business thingies and posting on hotel/airport wifi. I believe him. But even with that excuse he isn't doing much. Nevertheless, there just isn't much reason to call him scum, and he has some townish tells as well as some scummish ones. He is NOT a good lynch tomorrow or the day after. His spreadsheet update: he said he had kept it updated on an excel up to the start of D2, and after that got swamped. Problem is that the latest version of his spreadsheet only includes the D2 flips, not anybody's updated reads. In other words, if this is his scumhunting tool, he has only gone far enough with it to get an accurate picture of what people were thinking on D1... and not even that is all that accurate (going off my own memory of when I had what reads, I backed off both grack and oats pretty quickly during the day). So the spreadsheet goes from a town tell to a "look at me, I'm putting in work" tell. This is not a scumtell, just explaining why it is no longer a town tell. What makes him scum are some big red flags: D1 he was afk for the vote and ended the day with his vote parked conveniently off-wagon: a wagon that had been dead for a long time by then. He wasn't around to push that lynch, and nobody else was either. Being AFK could explain this, but being AFK can explain half the game here. On March 06 2019 11:03 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: Yeah your club looks a bit like Chernobyl right now but I'll join since literally everyone has scumread me this game lmao. That said, all I'm doing rn is combing the filters on your voters list. You're retarded for killing Palmar but you may still turn out to be a town retard. Someone else pointed out this post (don't remember who), and it does just feel like a TMI buddy post. Pretty big FoS for this. D2 is similar to D1. Hard town reads HF and BH and votes elsewhere. While forcing consolidation is silly, hard townreading 2 people and deciding to just go do something entirely different doesn't make sense either, unless you actually try to push it. MZ didn't. He just voted and buggered off. And on D4 he stuck with Onegu til the end (with a weak townread on both chez and tubesock) He is also going with all the hipster choices: HF vs BH? Both are town. FF vs Chez? Chez is town. That said, there's some pretty townie stuff too. For starters, on D3 he helped lynch sentinel over ace. Even if scum thinks both are town, scum would probably prefer to kill ace. As evidenced by the fact that they shot him straight after. The vote was mostly decided by the time MZ jumped on, but still. We've seen shenannies twice now this game, and MZ made that less likely to whiffle a lynch. On D4 he was also on the Onegu wagon. I'm not saying scum doesn't bus. But given that most of the day was about Chezinu vs TS, if both of those are town, why is MZ bothering to bus Onegu at a time it looked like Onegu might even get lynched? Not enough adds up to scum in MZ's filter. The scumteam: Onegu Basically all the reasons I had yesterday, plus the tunnel onto Chezinu was on a town veteran. He didn't question himself. He just tunneled until dead. KILL WITH FIRE darthfoley Lots of excuses and nothing good. I don't trust the image. There's no date on it (unlike onegu), and the metadata is stripped from the image when uploaded to imgur. Give us the dropbox version of it, as this could be pulling a BlazingHand (also, sticking your arm in a sling doesn't mean it's broken, it just means you have a sling lying around)! But that's really just an excuse. Even if he really is one-armed, he's a one-armed bandit (coined from mocsta or vivax, I think), and needs to die. On March 11 2019 06:55 darthfoley wrote: Bah bah black sheep mode initiated. Don’t have the energy or time to think for myself this cycle. Acro I follow your lead wheresver it take me #Vote: Ace This is still the worst excuse for a sheep in the game, as he didn't actually follow me wherever it took him. He just used it as a quick reason to vote ace and bugger off. I don't even mind the fact that he's saying he'll sheep me. I kinda sorta understand that. I just don't think this is a legit sheep. When pushed for reads they feel forced. If he's actually phonetyping I kinda get that. I noticed that on D1 my phoneposts got FoS'd a lot more than from the PC, because it's (1) hard to keep a train of thought, and (2) hard to write proper sentences, because everything just takes sooooooooo damn long. That makes the end result look constructed and somewhat incoherent. Probably worse when typing with one hand. But still. Nothing in this reads post adds up: + Show Spoiler [longish post] + On March 13 2019 06:55 darthfoley wrote: Okay so I just spent an hour reading the last 15-20 pages. I get why y’all are annoyed with me for low activity but that’s just the way the cookie has crumbled. Don’t expect cases cuz I’m on one handed mobile I don’t understand why everyone is shocked Ace got NK’d. I’m pretty sure he’s some old school legend and he had just beaten a lynch. Mafia was probably just afraid he’d come out guns blazing. TW was an obvious kill; TT I thought had been finally Town and doing the TT thing of being in his own bubble and pushing things that people didn’t interact with. Of any of them, he’s the guy I’d peg as dying for having correctly identified scum. Definitely getting to the point where having vixax and Acro around w/ only one scum flipped on D4 is sus. I’m moreso sus of Acro because there was a lot of heat on him D1, he wiggles out of it, hasn’t really been scum read since, claimed blue and is still living. Compare that to Ace who survived one round of lynching and was immediately kaput. Plus he’s pushing me today instead of trying to figure out FF/Chez. I know that means nothing to you guys, but I’m easy lynch bait this far into the game (deservedly so). I still fail to see his issue with my handling of the mayor vote D1, but he tries to make that some coup de grace. Part of me still thinks that we caught MZ warly day one and somehow talked ourselves out of it days later. He pulled out some ExO quote from his filter but misrepresented it for another easy lynch candidate. Also This is the most shallow reasoning of me being scum ever. In a game where ONE scum has been lynched. I haven’t been active enough to push wagons, and even if I did I’m part of a town that has almost exclusively pushed town wagons. Acro and MZ pushing me with little substance besides, “he’s inactive!” when we have two mad hatter sort of claims and neither one got targeted last night is poo poo. Sure it might be OMGUS but it’s apparently the last TL mafia game so sue me. I feel like I have no idea what Rels or Mocsta have posted about anything. Rels seems too cordial and Mocsta too sensitive. But tbf I haven’t read huge chunks of the game. From my understanding of how the claims went down, plus what SL said, Chez is probably scum and should be lynched. Oats and Grack feel unconstrained from mafia agenda and feel Town. FF is probably legit unless they really are on some last game 3D chess. L I think ExO is just a town like me who got overwhelmed and decided they didn’t care as much as they expected to; we had similar reactions to a few events in the game. Onegu/Wiggles/TS/etc I haven’t read enough of them to know. If you put s rope around my neck and forced me to choose, wiggles RP feels authentic and townie, TS has been so far under the radar that he may have become the radar 2 OMGUSs Kill Chezinu because sheep SL. A bunch of null reads And a bunch of hedged town reads. And that's his "big reads" post in the second half of the game. Also, my earlier case on him still stands: his voting has been suspect on pretty much every single election, starting with the D1 mayor election. Oatsmaster I was not expecting to find a smoking gun in Oats's filter, but I did. So he's scum. When I started writing, I wrote this + Show Spoiler [other stuff] + Oats's filter just feels off. D1 he fooled me by being too in-your-face active about stuff, but looking back over his filter he really was just spamming the thread. I mean... is this a serious accusation? On March 03 2019 08:38 Oatsmaster wrote: Also hf, so either you are town and you play serious so my read is wrong. Or you are town and you dont play serious so my read is right in the sense that if you were serious you are mafia. But just that my judgement of your posts is wrong. It cant be both at the same time like you are trying to portray it here. So the green part is that you are saying that you arent playing seriously this game in your opinion. The bolded green part is that you are saying that you do play serious as town. SOOOOOO ARE YOU TOWN THIS GAME HF?? It doesn't sound serious, it sounds like grandstanding. But then I got here: On March 04 2019 12:30 Oatsmaster wrote: Hey BC, so lets say HF is mafia and lynches Sent who is whatever alignment, how does that help us figure out Holyflare's alignment? It seems to me like you want to vote for HF not because hes town necessarily, but that the Mayoral vote can help us confirm his alignment. Can you explain that further? This excessive politeness is completely out of place in Oats's filter. Look at how he addresses confirmed townies: + Show Spoiler [short, direct] + On March 04 2019 12:31 Oatsmaster wrote: Why is FF town, and why are Sent's post excellent Dammy? On March 04 2019 12:16 Oatsmaster wrote: logical doesnt necessarily mean town though, especially of Sent is town. Why is this a town read Palmar? On March 03 2019 07:27 Oatsmaster wrote: so what reads did you actually agree wit? Almost rude in how direct he is. Whereas he talks to BC in a super circumspect way. It is just weeeeiiiiiiiiird. Now why would he address BC in such a completely different tone to the above people? Because it's constructed. Because he doesn't want to start a shitshow of a fight with his scumbuddy. But he also doesn't want to be caught out avoiding BC. So you get this.... weirdly polite thing, where he is sort-of coaching and sort-of questioning BC, but in a completely different way to other people. And let me preempt you, it isn't some kind of respect for veterans. Here is his first interaction with Palmar: On March 04 2019 12:16 Oatsmaster wrote: logical doesnt necessarily mean town though, especially of Sent is town. Why is this a town read Palmar? Although, the real cheeky Oats only shines through here: And here is Ace: So not veteran reverence. Just scumbuddy awkwardness. GG. PS. I checked onegu and DF, and he acts normally with onegu (albeit far later in the game), and completely avoids talking to DF. After you lynch Oats take a good hard look at his filter, this looks to be rife with associations. PS 2. Bloodycobbler, btw, doesn't respond, and Oats never mentions it again. Make of that what you will. I noted it mainly for the completely different tone when talking to BC than to HF or me. TLDR Soooo... those are your 3 scummers that you gotta gotta gotta lynch first. Ranked from surest to least sure in my mind: 1. Oats. This association tell is pretty fucking damning if you ask me. On top of all the other stuff. 2. Onegu. Doing nothing, and when he does something, it's terrible. 3. DF. Big bad blehhhhh. The Scummies Three guys for max 2 remaining scum. Hard choices beyond the first three above. Here's my thoughts. Sicklucker There comes a time where being "too bouncy and all over the place" no longer cuts it. Here is my earlier case: On March 12 2019 04:40 Acrofales wrote: @SL: Read progression please. You have insight on Oats? Other than that, there's a few red flags in SL's filter, but overall he seems too bouncy and all over the place to be scum. I don't really know SL's scumgame at all, but I get the feeling from his filter that he's playing the town game and happy to be doing so. Main red flag: Ends up voting HF for mayor: HF was nothing if not obvious about what he was going to do. Even if you don't think he's serious, if you have a strong townread on Palmar (strong enough to mention it anyway, which is more than he did for anyone except LS... and maybe rsoul). SL was there for at least part of that push, so why is he still voting HF? Minor red flag: has a scumread on conversion, but is all chummy with marv on N1. Combine this with the voting behaviour and he is the most likely 4th scummer. Note that on D4 he is one of the people who completely ignores my Chezinu = town case. He parked his vote on Chez, and went to do other random stuff, despite coming in last minute with a proposal to derail onto Oats (when it was far too late for any such things). Grackaroni On March 14 2019 04:14 Grackaroni wrote: I think the Chezinu green post is completely wrong. If he wanted to get shot he would have done some analysis, which he usually actually starts to do later in the game as town. This game he got called out and then started jabbering about being a mad hatter, and then when that role was counterclaimed he switched claims. Also he's been softing blue roles for a while now. From what I can tell from my snooping, this was supposed to be a breadcrumb for the role "Dreamflower" which is a town role that gets KP and then dies if the person he shoots isn't scum. On March 14 2019 07:52 Grackaroni wrote: I don't expect to lynch scum. I think we're losing atm. This just seems like TMI. The leading vote at the time was TS, with Onegu and Chezinu in close pursuit. Grack was scumming Chezinu, both in posts and in vote, and hs this to say about LS's meta case (and Vivax's feels case) on TS: On March 14 2019 04:45 Grackaroni wrote: Oh nice. You're right I actually do see a noticeable difference between the top 3 posts and the bottom 3. Good post. So he agrees with LS's basic meta case that TS uses different language as scum than as town, and that the list post in this game is more like his scum lists (note, this meta case was bad enough that LS dropped it himself a few posts later). In other words, Grack appears to believe TS and Chez are scum... yet is despondent that we won't lynch scum. That is a pretty big TMI in my book. Even I, who was townreading TS, thought there was a good chance we'd lynch scum (if we had actually managed to lynch him), at the time. I scummed him for his entry into the game, then towned him when he started playing, but I think that's probably a mistake. Heavy FoS on Grack for being the final scum. ExO_ Fucked if I know what ExO_ is doing here. He isn't doing anything outright scummy that I can see, but he isn't doing anything that helps town either. He's almost daring us to lynch him. If he's a VT he needs to start taking the game more seriously. Hopefully we are in the situation where there is a possible mislynch when it's down to 5-2, and you can pressure ExO_ with a lynch without risking losing the game. Maybe if sufficiently under pressure he'll do something townie. Or maybe you can find something associative after flipping some scums. For now, just leave him be. | ||
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Oats gotta die first in any case. | ||
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THERE IS A SUPER ELEGANT SOLUTION FOR THIS IF YOU STILL HAVE YOUR BOMB. Place your bomb on Onegu. As long as both you and Onegu are alive, lynch the other scummers. If the game is down to 5-2 and both are still alive, you can lynch him safely. It either goes down to 4-1 or it was 4-2-1 to begin with, and goes down to standard lylo at 3-2 the next day. If you die and Onegu lives, he was 3p survivor with a bulletproof vest. If you die and Onegu flips, then we know what he was from the flip. | ||
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Will run through the possible scenarios. | ||
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. Ya there is probably 2 or 3 mafia in that
