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On March 13 2019 03:23 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:Show nested quote +On March 13 2019 03:19 LightningStrike wrote:On March 13 2019 03:11 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:On March 13 2019 03:06 LightningStrike wrote:On March 13 2019 03:03 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:On March 13 2019 02:47 LightningStrike wrote:
We do have to kill Chez because despite his Meta Tell FF should of died if Chez is town based on the claims. MZ can be saved for Day 5 or so but right now we have to solve the brown himself. Here's my proposal, kill me today and then kill one of my red reads day 5. If chez is actually scum he will have broken like a decade of meta. Also for the record I have a very hard time believing FFs claim. It's the last game most likely for TL Mafia and Rels brought up the point that he could break his meta for the final hurrah. Why you don't believe FF's claim? Because I had a pretty strong red read on FF. Besides this town so far has been remarkably willing to accept role claims (that's neither good nor bad, I've just been part of towns in the past that were suspicious as shit of all claims). Besides hatter is a great scum claim bc it conveniently explains why you don't get NK'd and vigis are more nervous to shoot you. I also don't like Rel for town very much, the traitor role has already flipped and someone pointed out scum mason would be a great role for helping the mafia team find the traitor. Similarly I absolutely do not under any circumstances consider pandain townconfirmed, especially since he wasnt shot last night and tumble was. Why would FF do that when the vigs all outed themselves???? If Rels is mafia you would have to assume that magfia didn't know who the traitor is but know there is a traitor so why would he recruit his townreads in Tina (rsoultin), Rayn and later recruited me? How do you know all the vigis are outed? Its a closed setup. And if hes scum, he probably just recruits people he thinks he can influence. Like mafia can say "these are my townreads" and always be right lol.
But if he's recruiting rsoultin, he isn't using it to hunt for the traitor...
Or if he is, he's being really bad at it.
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On March 13 2019 03:23 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:Show nested quote +On March 13 2019 03:19 LightningStrike wrote:On March 13 2019 03:11 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:On March 13 2019 03:06 LightningStrike wrote:On March 13 2019 03:03 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:On March 13 2019 02:47 LightningStrike wrote:
We do have to kill Chez because despite his Meta Tell FF should of died if Chez is town based on the claims. MZ can be saved for Day 5 or so but right now we have to solve the brown himself. Here's my proposal, kill me today and then kill one of my red reads day 5. If chez is actually scum he will have broken like a decade of meta. Also for the record I have a very hard time believing FFs claim. It's the last game most likely for TL Mafia and Rels brought up the point that he could break his meta for the final hurrah. Why you don't believe FF's claim? Because I had a pretty strong red read on FF. Besides this town so far has been remarkably willing to accept role claims (that's neither good nor bad, I've just been part of towns in the past that were suspicious as shit of all claims). Besides hatter is a great scum claim bc it conveniently explains why you don't get NK'd and vigis are more nervous to shoot you. I also don't like Rel for town very much, the traitor role has already flipped and someone pointed out scum mason would be a great role for helping the mafia team find the traitor. Similarly I absolutely do not under any circumstances consider pandain townconfirmed, especially since he wasnt shot last night and tumble was. Why would FF do that when the vigs all outed themselves???? If Rels is mafia you would have to assume that magfia didn't know who the traitor is but know there is a traitor so why would he recruit his townreads in Tina (rsoultin), Rayn and later recruited me? How do you know all the vigis are outed? Its a closed setup. And if hes scum, he probably just recruits people he thinks he can influence. Like mafia can say "these are my townreads" and always be right lol.
Also, what are your townreads? 
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On March 13 2019 03:27 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:Show nested quote +On March 13 2019 03:23 Acrofales wrote:![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/YqfWbEJ.png) This should have been easy to update. Where is it? As much as I hate people who use IRL as an excuse, I have flown a sortie every day since last Wednesday. I ended up being a lot busier on this trip than I was anticipating so I have not updated it, nor have I had my computer on in a week. I've basically just had time to catch up at the end of the day and throw out some thoughts. If people don't find this to be a compelling reason I'm fine flipping now since we aren't at lylo.
That's okay, I wasn't expecting a fully updated version, but you took the time to mention that you had an Excel that was more updated than this. Please sync.
You have another 5 minutes.
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On March 13 2019 03:37 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:
Acro and oats are either of you looking for reads on particular people?
I'm mainly looking for reads on you with this line of questioning. Any insight into the wagons of the day would be appreciated tho.
Those seem to be: you, TS, Chez, DF, maybe FF, maybe Slam.
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On March 13 2019 03:55 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:
I also managed to get the hotel wifi to upload the excel to the spreadsheet. It's current as of last Wednesday morning.
Hmmm. Why are the flip colors updated, but not the reads with nightly insights?
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On March 13 2019 04:09 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:Show nested quote +On March 13 2019 04:07 Acrofales wrote:On March 13 2019 03:55 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:
I also managed to get the hotel wifi to upload the excel to the spreadsheet. It's current as of last Wednesday morning. Hmmm. Why are the flip colors updated, but not the reads with nightly insights? What do you mean? I've got it so that light green means you called a flipped town, green before their death and purple means you scum read a townie who flipped green.
But you didn't update the reads list with progressing reads from ppl.
I'm out to watch Captain Marvel. Cya.
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On March 13 2019 04:28 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:
Oat and Acro, outside of me, who do you think is most likely to pop scum?
DF
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On March 13 2019 15:41 Tubesock wrote:
When I flip remember who pushed it.
Of course people know when they OMGUS, that happens a lot. I’m pretty sure it happened earlier in this game.
On March 12 2019 23:00 Tubesock wrote:
Fecalfeast - bombing Chez is brilliant. I believe his claim and he’s the only hatter.
Vivax - he’s alive because he’s useful for mafia, he does not promote town circles.
Mocsta - probably should be null. Hmm
[/green][/b]
The ppl pushing your case are all green in your list. Rather than telling us to "look into it", how about you give us a reason to not lunch you.
Because right now, I'm still not convinced on FF vs Chez, I'm no longer sure about MZ (although he's probably still mafia) and the guys pushing you have a point.
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Damn it. I was going to make a point about how you can not only quote, but edit quotes on a phone, and I fucked up the formatting.
DF definitely scum
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Chezinu, I have an idea about this, but explain why you claimed hatter, plz.
Also, I totes picked up on that veteran claim, but dismissed it, because you claimed hatter. Look at me being not completely useless at picking out breadcrumbs.
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For the rest of town, I think lynching either Chez or FF are terrible lynches. I 100% believe chez's claim now.
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In fact, I'll go so far as to say that lynching me would be a better idea than lynching Chez at this point. FF might need to be lynched so scum don't shoot the 2-for-1, but Chez is definitely an awful lynch.
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On March 13 2019 18:07 Mocsta wrote:Ok 3P acro 
Zzzzzzzz zzzzzzzz
But it's still better than the silent treatment before you came in.
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Yeahhhh. Case incoming when I get to a PC.
Let's lunch scum, ##vote: onegu
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On March 13 2019 18:39 Pandain wrote:
Acro are you actually SK?
No. I'm what I claimed to be.
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On March 13 2019 18:39 Pandain wrote:
Acro are you actually SK?
If you want my take on scum KP:
Formula: ceil(#scum/2) and traitor doesn't count (meaning scum probably didn't even know he existed).
6 scum + traitor at the start of the game, gives 3 KP.
5 scum on n3 still gives 3 KP.
An alternative is that they have a fixed 3kp and that's balanced by giving town lots of KP and protective roles of their own.
Either one works with everything we've seen so far.
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Bah, chezinu is in the US, so there's no chance he'll respond to me any time soon. Gonna have to lay out his reasoning myself, which ruins the chance for him to prove he's not brown, but green. But I need to do it, to get all the reasoning out there, so we can get on with the real lynch of the day: Onegu.
Chezinu, the veteran
The claims:
+ Show Spoiler [preamble] +On March 10 2019 10:18 Chezinu wrote:Show nested quote +On March 10 2019 10:14 Mr. Wiggles wrote:Well I was going to say about the Chez lynch that I'm not sure how to feel since Chez seems to be completely gone. Felt weird to try to lynch someone who's not even playing. But then what do I spy but this: On March 10 2019 09:57 Chezinu wrote:
##Vote sicklucker What's happening my brooding brown brother? I think it's time to confess about that evil living inside of you. LOL GG If you kill me, you will die. On March 10 2019 10:49 Chezinu wrote:Already did earlier. Seriously the brown claimed blue this game. It's like the end of the world or something. On March 10 2019 10:51 Chezinu wrote:
Would be so funny if wiggle and vivax had bombs on thems.
Up to this point, nobody really knew what to make of chez's claims, except FF, who picked it up, naturally, being the real hatter, as a truthful hatter claim. He sniffed out that this was a weird claim, and counterclaimed the shit out of it. What he didn't know was that chez was fake-claiming as the town veteran, and the moment he gets counterclaimed, instead of doubling down, he starts recanting, but only part of the claim:
On March 10 2019 11:35 Chezinu wrote:Show nested quote +On March 10 2019 11:33 LightningStrike wrote:
Rolf chez posted right when I was typing that out lol..... What abilities you talking about Chez? I'm a veteran at this game. When I'm up for lynch, it forces me to play like never before. So, the mission town had in voting for me has been accomplished. I am playing now. Mad hatters's bombs don't go off when lynched.. only when killed at night.
On March 11 2019 12:43 Chezinu wrote:Show nested quote +On March 11 2019 10:46 Ace wrote:
As of now we have these claimed roles. If any of the information is wrong let me know.
1 Normal Vigilante (1 shot) - Tumbleweed
1 Lurker Vigilante (Can only target players that had less than 5 posts previous day) - Arcofales
Mad Hatter with 1 bomb - Fecalfeast
Mad Hatter - Chezinu
Day Vigilante - Pandain
Known roles:
Marv = Cop
Trfel = Doctor
Palmar = Backup Cop
iamperfection = Veteran
BC = Scum Roleblocker
With a closed set up we don't know role numbers, but some things we can surmise. I've stated these concerns in earlier posts but I want to keep this stuff on people's minds.
Most of my thoughts come from how I see a balanced game. This is usually from the idea that Scum doesn't really need much power in their roles to destroy the town. When I see lots of high powered Town Roles I assume scum is compensated somehow.
With what we know right now the Town has a shit ton of KP even if it's 1 shot. We have 5 KP plus the lynch. This isn't really that outlandish on the surface because we started with 36 players. But if we're walking around with that much KP look at what's missing - we've had 1 Doctor flip, and 1 cop flip. The backup cop doesn't count as an investigation role because it does nothing until the cop flips. That means in addition to veteran we've seen 2 protective roles and ONE active investigation role included with 8? total KP, 3 of which are guaranteed to hit Town and come with a role blocker.
No one has come out with any information on night investigations. I highly doubt we only had one information role so someone is holding onto something. This again gives the Town massive power vs the only known Scum role of RB.
So I just don't buy all of these claims.
Pandain's Day Vigi claim seems credible to me. Scum having a Day Vigi when they already have 3 KP doesn't match with what we know so far. I'm supposing mods know about the self-confirmation power of normal vigilantes and how shooting during the day boosts that even more.
TW hasn't been counter claimed on the BC shot. Almost confirmed town.
FF and Chez's claims can't be confirmed w/o rolecop or death lol. Both of them being hatters and Town is just wtf. But luckily these claims coincide with the problem role imo: Acro's lurker vigilante.
I've never seen this role afaik remember. When I first saw it I was like oh shit what a great concept! But then I kept thinking about it and it just doesn't seem to fit at face value. Remember, one of the issues with vigilantes is they are Town aligned but their KP can also hit Town. MAfia doesn't have this issue as they know their teammates and their KP will always hit Town.
So Acro is a Town aligned vigilante and gets to shoot people based on lurking conditions. First, the mods would have to know the issue that comes up if only Town satisfies that condition. You'd have a town aligned vigilante becoming completely anti-Town and killing teammates. Sure, they may want to give players control of dealing with lurkers and we can look at Acro as a mod tool. But, post count isn't a sub for post quality. They'd quickly realize that a potentially valuable pro-Town player would be screwed. However, this isn't the only problem with the role for me.
Damdred + Chezinu + Pandain. Those were his choices Night 2. I highly, highly doubt if this role is true it would drop only Town players into his cross hairs. It would be a strictly anti-town role and we would have to lynch him anyway unless you believe he only has 1 shot. If his role is true Acro should have thought hard about some of this and immediately railroaded Chez or Pandain. And if Pandain is town confirmed day vigilante, this means Chezinu has to be scum. Anyone believing Acro's claim should want Chezinu lynched soon.
Let's see how the night plays out and who comes out with a claim tomorrow.
I believe you are wrong about your Chezinu Role Claim. I know... he is hard to read.
On March 10 2019 11:32 Chezinu wrote: Getting lynched is lame. Everyone said they were going to shoot me... sigh... How am I supposed to use my abilities if I get lynched?
Claims a role that requires getting shot at.
On March 10 2019 15:51 Chezinu wrote:Come on.. think about it... if I was a mad hatter, wouldn't I be talking to ticktock all game?
On March 11 2019 13:04 Chezinu wrote:
Dear doctors and medics,
Do not protect me. My death will lead to more information... That is only if I die at night. Ace is an amazing investigator.
Caution: bombs can eliminate players that visit the player with the bomb when it goes off.
On March 11 2019 13:11 Chezinu wrote:Show nested quote +On March 11 2019 13:07 Mocsta wrote:On March 11 2019 13:04 Chezinu wrote:
Dear doctors and medics,
Do not protect me. My death will lead to more information... That is only if I die at night. Ace is an amazing investigator.
Caution: bombs can eliminate players that visit the player with the bomb when it goes off. Wtf role si this? Show nested quote +On February 09 2010 16:02 Incognito wrote:
Mad Hatter
You may lay bombs on one player per night (maximum 2). If you are killed you will throw the switch and detonate them, killing the players (if they aren't protected by extra night lives, paramedics, or bodyguards). You may remove any number of them from players at any time during the night to get them back, but if a player is lynched with one on them while the you are still alive you lose that bomb for good. Bombs are refunded if the target is killed during the night.
Oh yeah.. it doesn't kill visitors.. does it? That would be so cool!!! We really need to retry this end of the world game with more explosives!
This is all... very weird if he's scum that just got counterclaimed. Scum that gets counterclaimed don't back down. They insist that there are 2 hatters in the game, that FF is lying or something else. They don't just kinda ignore the counterclaim. Not even chezinu. So why back down, but in such a weird way? Because he wanted scum to waste KP on him.
Note, there are numerous references to veteran incongruently scattered around his filter, which may just be talking about TL veterans, veteran players, or be breadcrumbing his role. The biggest one is the one he quoted earlier, but there are more. Of course, it's chezinu the brown, he who speaketh in riddles, so good luck deciding if they're breadcrumbs or just weird use of language. But they exist.
But the kicker is this: Chezinu knows he was never gonna get scumshot at night, so he claimed a role that scum does want to shoot. By claiming hatter, with bombs on probable townies, scum would totally shoot the shit out of him, and he'd soak up KP, exactly as he is intended to. His confusion about the role is because he never bothered to actually research hatters, and when counterclaimed kinda just dropped it. He was still playing at it halfheartedly during the night, but the big play he had imagined was already dead in the water.
The next day, when he doesn't end up dead, he gives up and posts the true role claim.
Could this all be an elaborate plot by a scum!Chezinu to save his bacon after his fakeclaim failed? Maybe, but nothing about his behaviour around the fakeclaim makes sense. He isn't calling FF out on it, he isn't imploring town that there are really two hatters, and he isn't pushing the matter at all. Scum doesn't just give up on fakeclaims. They insist, and wheedle.
So chezinu is a veteran.
Can there be two veterans and a medic in a 35player game? I'm inclined to say yes.
Chezinu the black, or Chezinu the red: if he's an sk/survivor with a bulletproof vest, or a mafia veteran, claiming hatter and trying to get shot doesn't make sense. The whole mindset is to survive, and avoiding getting shot is still the safest way of doing that, not using your bulletproof vest to soak a bomb. Mafia makes even less sense, because why not just shoot FF, and if the bomb is on chezinu, he survives, and if it's on someone else in FF's list of scumspects, it's a 2-for-1. Ez pickings, and a far better shot than TT.
So, Chezinu is green, not brown, and town may rejoice!
The implications:
The fact that scum didn't shoot FF, means they already figured this shit out. They knew Chezinu was town and didn't kill FF anyway. Why not? Because they had figured out that it wouldn't be a 2-for-1 because they got chezinu's breadcrumbs. So next best solution: leave both alive and push the lynch to be between them on D4. Guess who is really adamant about that? Onegu.
Now, you say, nobody knew that, and it's obvious to lynch between the claim and the fake claim as a townie too. I grant you that, which makes everything Onegu has done today NAI (although I specifically went back to the start of the day to figure out who was taking the "easy way out" and focusing exclusively on the FF <> Chezinu situation, and one name really jumped out; guess whose).
So lets make a list of everything Onegu has done this game:
D1. Nothing
D2. Nothing
D3. Where it gets interesting.
He starts with pushing Pandain after he dayvig's HF, because there is "no way town does that". In particular, look at this post:
On March 09 2019 22:43 Onegu wrote:Show nested quote +On March 09 2019 22:42 LightningStrike wrote:On March 09 2019 22:38 Onegu wrote:On March 09 2019 22:23 LightningStrike wrote:On March 09 2019 22:12 Onegu wrote:
Or tell me why my logic is bad?
Don't think scum would have a day vig especially when it would instant win in LYLO/MYLO as someone mentioned plus he had replaced out and replsced back in thus less likely chance he's scum I think. This isnt a normal game. Possible scum get a 1 shot on day 3. Why should town make that shot though. Doesnt make sense. Only scum take that shot. Second that is meaningless. Mean I shit I forgot the game started. Get replaced. Come back hey I wanted to play. AMG doesnt want to play scum or some shit comes up. Pandain comes back. HF should always been shot by a vig of any sort though so we had info on the mayor wagon Day 1 and the Day 2 lynch..... Not true at all. Would you have shot him if you had a day vigi? After the flips he was obv town.
This just reeeeeeeeks of TMI. Note that this is from a guy who has not mentioned Palmar a single time in his filter, and has a grand total of two posts talking about HF. HF's alignment was definitely not obvious to me based on the flips, and even if you did think HF was town, did the N2 nightkills help you with that in the slightest. There is scum knowledge shining through in this post, in order to push for his lynch on Pandain.
The rest of the day, he is waffling about Chez. He leaps onto the wagon when my role is misunderstood. Jumps off when I clarify, and leaps back on at the slightest opportunity.
Has he ever explained the read? No. The only reason is the fakeclaim. Nothing else.
Then we get:
On March 11 2019 08:40 Onegu wrote:
ONCE AGAIN TO HAMMER THIS HOME NO ONE GETS ANY TOWN CRED FROM THAT LYNCH.
This is.... not good. Even if you believe scum didn't know sentinel was one of them, it was still good scumhunting to find sentinel. Even if you think the best you can credit the case with was scum-aligned-survivor, some people still look good for finding that. And Pandain looks best. Trying to remove that from the equation is anti-town play. Moreso, because he just doesn't want people townreading Pandain, who he still sees as lynchbait.
On March 12 2019 18:41 Onegu wrote:
I feels since day three I have been one of the more active players... Maybe I am wrong...
In terms of activity, this may have been true (didn't check), but in terms of usefulness or transparency? Onegu has played his cards close to his chest.
During D3 he posted about: pandain, and chezinu. That's it. Narrow focus. No scumhunting. Just latching onto these and trying to get them lynched. During N3 he kept up his laser focus on pandain and chezinu, and adds in muddying the waters around the sentinel lynch. That is it. There is no searching for the rest of the scumteam. No investigation. Nothing that townies do. This is not a town Onegu. This is a scum Onegu.
KILL ONEGU FOR TOWN JUSTICE
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I don't actually have time for this right now. I gotta go for lunch and then wurk wurk afterwards. But I did find this:
On March 09 2019 09:08 Ace wrote:Show nested quote +On March 09 2019 09:06 Holyflare wrote:
Oh hey look absolutely everyone that would be defending me died and the one guy that yelled about lynching me for dumb reasons was mafia. That's cool. Some of his reasons were good. He just happened to be your scum buddy :'(
There was no "instant reading HF as town".
He was maybe coming around here:
On March 09 2019 09:28 Ace wrote:
Wow. Ah well. All that fun trying to lynch HF is now down the drain.
But I don't really see where he was giving a clear townread off of BC getting shot until after HF was shot as well. He afterwards claims he instantly read HF as town, but at the time he clearly didn't "instantly".
As for SL, he's still in the game, but what I find in his filter is this:
On March 09 2019 09:17 sicklucker wrote:
Ok i sapose holyscum is town from night actions maybe. Let the fun begin
Not very confident.
And I myself was definitely not convinced BC wasn't just bussing HF, but I do admit, I wasn't looking for associations after the daypost, and only really started playing D3 the next morning after the dayvig did his thing.
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On March 14 2019 02:53 Tubesock wrote:Show nested quote +On March 14 2019 02:46 ExO_ wrote:
Has TS done/said something recently that makes him more likely to be scum than myself? I though TS was basically in the same boat of being afk as I was and I'm curious why he's generally being more pushed than me. Because I’m in that sweet spot where I’m easily forgotten and just don’t have much to contribute. Wiggles then vivax didn’t like me but I think they are probably town. The ones who jumped on later though would be where the mafia are.
Less talking about you, more talking about other people. I asked you a question a couple of hours ago, when you said about the same. You just claimed town and to look into your lynch leaders "after you died", but you are townreading all of your lynch leaders. So instead of telling us what to do postmortem, you should be able to do better right now. What makes them scum, rather than just wrong town?
Because really, I think they may very well be right. But my priority is definitely lynching Onegu
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EPT
