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On November 09 2018 00:22 kitaman27 wrote:Show nested quote +On November 09 2018 00:17 Conversion wrote:
I'm tempted to just OMGUS kitaman and veto him because he keeps sticking to this "Conversion is scummy and I will never reposition myself away from this position" and it's on krogan's level of stubbornness and it's annoying me, but I'll objectively dive. Heh if I were scum I'd totally buddy up to you to try to earn your vote, but the fact of matter is that I do in fact still think you're mafia. Could you explain the discrepancy in the posts I just pointed out?
IIRC my thought process was that you were missing the broad side of the barn with Rels' point and I disliked it, but I didn't make a definitive statement since I had no time yesterday. I'm going to spend time analyzing you and Rels before I actually decide between you two.
The first list I made I thought I made a post in that I was wrong in that you were making a lot of uncertainty disclaimers (which is why I put you at a neutral, until I disliked you again for above reason), but it seems like my filter suggest I didn't do so.
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Kitaman27
Vote positions:
rayn/happykrogan - YES
grack/prplhz - YES
conversion/rayn - NO
Just purely from vote positions, kitaman looks pretty neutral. Passes people he thinks is town (rayn/happykrogan), was unsure about grack/prplhz (ended up passing), immediately vetoes who he thinks is a scum president (Conversion)
The problem I have with him still thinking I'm scum is that he suggested this plan in the beginning, and wasn't sure why it was a bad idea:
On October 30 2018 08:58 kitaman27 wrote:Show nested quote +On October 30 2018 08:14 raynpelikoneet wrote:
regardless of the first policy's outcome i don't think we should include the first councellor into the second government. Fascist policies, even if elected, in fact do not "kill us" that quickly imo. Why not go the resistance route and just roll with the guys that are providing positive results? Sure a facist policy isn't going to end the game right away, but wouldn't it be better to ride the initial liberal policy pushers as much as possible until they give us a reason to doubt them?
On October 31 2018 04:29 kitaman27 wrote:
It sounds like we're talking about different situations. I'm saying roll with the good guys as long as we can and once we hit a fail, re-evaluate if it's a 3F or sabotage. Electing Hitler won't need to be something to worry about as much before that because we're not at that threshold. Once we do cross that threshold, it obviously becomes a bigger concern.
He seems to say that it's find if we roll with people that are providing positive results, which makes the entire pool of governments we had so far good candidates to roll with his plan. However, he seems to be going against what he thought was a good plan-- he is no longer re-evaluating after a negative result is shown, but not rolling with a government that showed a positive result (Conversion/rayn) and just automatically vetoing me based on his read.
Another thing that bothered me a lot about kitaman is his indecisiveness on the 2nd government. He seems to have laid out a pretty solid reading of the game, multiple times before the vote:
On November 01 2018 23:37 kitaman27 wrote:
This would be my ranking of trustworthiness at the moment.
happykrogan
raynpelikoneet
byj
prplhz
Grackaroni
Conversion
Rels
I have krogan slightly higher than rayn because I think the president slot has more wiggle room to send a double F through and get away with it, but I'm not entirely concerned about either. I'm always paranoid about playing games with rayn since I can't ever think of a situation where it worked out well when I trusted him, but even with the few things that I've disagreed with him so far, there don't seem to be inconsistencies in the logic. byj is kinda weird because it doesn't seem like he really cares about how he looks, which I think typically points to liberal. I had the same initial feeling about Conversion, but then I didn't like his explanation about the fail plan and he's got this sarcastic attitude with some of his posts that feel a bit manufactured. prpl is in the same boat as byj as someone who hasn't really said much, but I'd say prpl is worse because he's putting in slightly more effort to show he cares with a few random questions that don't really lead anywhere and a couple of wishy washy posts. I've already spoken about Rels about why I think he's a baddie. Grack I've gone back and forth on. On one hand, he didn't really seem invested in getting elected D1 and even if I he's wrong about his suspicion of me, I can see a viewpoint where a townie thinks that, but on the other hand, I didn't like his early game posting about prpl and picking Rels or conversion seems like the easiest path to rig the deck as president and then pass blame to your scummy looking choice. It does seem unlikely that grack would want to pair himself with another facist early on in the game however so I probably need to do some adjusting of my bottom three, either by moving grack up or replacing conversion/rels with someone else.
On November 02 2018 23:34 kitaman27 wrote:Show nested quote +On November 02 2018 23:04 raynpelikoneet wrote:On November 01 2018 23:37 kitaman27 wrote:
[....]picking Rels or conversion seems like the easiest path to rig the deck as president and then pass blame to your scummy looking choice. It does seem unlikely that grack would want to pair himself with another facist early on in the game however so I probably need to do some adjusting of my bottom three, either by moving grack up or replacing conversion/rels with someone else. No you dont. You group Rels/Conversion both into the same category and dont come to any conclusion. Thats different from what i said. You do the same thing in one of your later posts too. I think the difference is that your argument is that grack with Rels/Conversion cannot make sense in mind, where as mine was that I'd update the list if that scenario where grack pairs himself with one of those players became reality. He threw it out there for a little bit, but settled on prpl eventually, which I don't think is enough to disregard the possibility completely. Do you think there is a strong enough argument to completely eliminate the possibility of grack + Rels or grack + conversion at the moment? I don't think so. Overall though, I think my trust ratings are better suited as tiers. tier 1: krogan/rayn (myself) tier 2: byj/prl/grack tier 3: conversion/rels
He in fact, during this time, has called me being scummy for "being cool with grack/prplhz," while completely ignoring the fact that I was specifically okay with it because I had a strong belief that it would be a liberal grack/prplhz facist split at best, as I discounted the fact of a facist/facist or facist/hitler combination in this government. My argument was also that it would give us a peek into the alignments of the two (Which rayn called grack out for passing L/L onto prplhz instead of L/F), but kitaman said that was a poor reason to vote any government, since any government can objectively give us information.
Why did kitaman then have such a hard time deciding? Grack and prplhz was in the lower half of his townie rankings, it should have been leaning pretty hard to a no in that case since he did not believe in voting a government solely for getting information. The only reasoning I can think is that a facist!kitaman was struggling to figure out the state of the game provided he voted this team on, and tried to hide under the guise of a liberal townie. If I was a liberal making reads and the government was two of my less trusted reads, I would have vetoed that government without a thought.
On November 05 2018 01:18 kitaman27 wrote:
My new tiers for trustworthiness would be:
tier 1: krogan, grack, rayn
tier 2: prpl
tier 3: byj, conversion, rels
I think grack rejecting his own presidency is rather town looking considering the decent opportunity to pass FF. Now that byj has started posting more, I think he looks a lot worse by purposely withholding his reads and asking random questions that don't seem like they serve a purpose.
I'm going to vote down the conversion team. For my presidency, I'd likely nominate krogan who I have a slightly better feeling on, compared to rayn, but I still haven't decided for sure.
Here he re-evaluates Grack now, since a liberal policy passed-- which is in line with "vote whoever yields positive results until shown otherwise." I wonder why he is conveniently ignoring that fact that a Conversion/rayn team yielded a liberal policy? Sure, I could have lied and drawn 2L in liberal!kitaman's eyes, but that is not a fact yet, so should I not be going up if his logic remains consistent?
On November 07 2018 05:32 kitaman27 wrote:
Cool.
There was at least one facist who has been elected so far, which means they either chose not to sabotage or didn't have an opportunity to sabotage. I think the facist player would usually choose to sabotage if they have the opportunity, unless they are Hitler.
Unless things really, really spiral out of control it seems unlikely that we'd hit 6 facist policies. The path to victory seems to be pretty straight forward and we have a dt check as a safe guard for when we eventually hit FFF. If we get a town result, that gives us a decent way to avoid Hitler as chancellor for half of the elections.
Either Krogan or Grack for me this cycle. I'm going to re-read one more time before I decide to see if I can figure out who the elected facist might be.
He thinks a facist was elected, but also thinks that facist player would choose to sabotage if they had the chance, unless they are Hitler.
He seems incredibly focused on that fact that I am the facist player, but by that logic I am also Hitler?? since I did not sabotage?
If that's the case, why isn't he pushing this idea further to convince other liberals? Seems like an awfully convenient soft jab to try and paint me as a facist. The problem with this is that he has no other real good targets. He's townread HK/rayn/grack pretty heavily at this point, Rels vs kitaman is obvious, and then you have prpl/byj, who are just skimming by filter-wise and not doing much. I have the most "incriminating" posts logically, but his filter seems to have a lot of loose ends he's refusing to tie together while calling me facists (and I guess, by this post, Hitler)
The one positive thing about Kitaman is that he doesn't seem to be scared to eat a check, but maybe that could be that he's trying to eat the check on one of his other facists/Hitler, so that he can still have an avenue of winning the game.
Verdict: PASS, contingent on Rels looking better than Kitaman
I do not think a liberal!kitaman would have this many holes in his logic in how he approaches the game. It seems that he is making a special case to his original logic (vote people that show results) to me, as he feels as if he needs to go against his strategy in order to win as a facists. I do not see a liberal!kitaman being unhappy that a Conversion/rayn team passed a liberal policy, since in his mind that should have been enough people to win the game, even if a facist was elected into the government.
I'll do a Rels dive in a few, going to go get breakfast with my family
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On November 09 2018 01:55 kitaman27 wrote:Show nested quote +On November 09 2018 00:51 Conversion wrote:
He seems to say that it's find if we roll with people that are providing positive results, which makes the entire pool of governments we had so far good candidates to roll with his plan. However, he seems to be going against what he thought was a good plan-- he is no longer re-evaluating after a negative result is shown, but not rolling with a government that showed a positive result (Conversion/rayn) and just automatically vetoing me based on his read. Huh? During your presidency only krogan, rayn, and grack had alignment indicative results from the elections. I'm not sure what you mean why you say that you showed a positive result. Show nested quote +On November 09 2018 00:51 Conversion wrote:
He in fact, during this time, has called me being scummy for "being cool with grack/prplhz," while completely ignoring the fact that I was specifically okay with it because I had a strong belief that it would be a liberal grack/prplhz facist split at best
That's correct. I think that's scummy reasoning. Show nested quote +On November 09 2018 00:51 Conversion wrote:
Why did kitaman then have such a hard time deciding? Grack and prplhz was in the lower half of his townie rankings, it should have been leaning pretty hard to a no in that case since he did not believe in voting a government solely for getting information. The term limits meant that I couldn't take rayn or krogan who were at the top of my list. I wasn't going to get chosen by you or grack, which pretty much means that I had to pick players from my middle tier. It didn't include you and Rels so I passed it through. You're really framing your argument to fit your narrative here.Show nested quote +On November 09 2018 00:51 Conversion wrote:
He thinks a facist was elected, but also thinks that facist player would choose to sabotage if they had the chance, unless they are Hitler. Correction, I know that a facist player was elected. At this point, I'm leaning towards either you being Hitler or prpl being a facist who didn't need to make a choice on d2. Show nested quote +On November 09 2018 00:51 Conversion wrote:
If that's the case, why isn't he pushing this idea further to convince other liberals? Seems like an awfully convenient soft jab to try and paint me as a facist. Well I think I made it pretty clear with my latest post that I think you and Rels are connected. Hardly a soft jab.
No, you didn't have to pick people from your middle tier, you could have pushed for more information in order to be more sure of who you were voting for. You sat back, told people you were unsure, and then ended up voting for them for ?reasons? that I still don't know.
How do you know a facist was elected? Playing possibility games != certain knowledge..
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oh wait I am stupid, you are right. facist HAS to have been elected with 6 unique people in a government. I take the last statement back
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Fuck I really want to pass Rels over Kita but I cannot trust that Rels will get passed..
Yes - Me/Grack/Rels/Rayn
No - Kita
No idea - Happykrogan/prplhz/byj
??
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never mind, we have a pretty great shot at voting Rels I think provided no one fucks off from the plan, as rayn says
On November 09 2018 00:17 happykrogan wrote:Show nested quote +On November 09 2018 00:12 kitaman27 wrote:
Does this accurately reflect everyone's opinion so far? You really should justify why you prefer one candidate over the other because we can use that information later on. I'm talking about prpl, byj, krogan and conversion specifically.
kitaman27 - Yes
raynpelikoneet - Yes to one or the other
byj - Yes, but could change
prplhz - Learning Yes
happykrogan - Yes to both pairs (?)
Grackaroni - ?
Conversion - Leaning No?
Rels - No I will decide on who I prefer before deadline. If I end up prefering you and you don't get voted, I will 100% vote Rels anyway. If I end up prefering Rels and you get voted I will 100% not vote Rels, so we can follow the plan.
Yes - Me/Rels/Rayn/Krogan
Sort of yes - Grack (said it might change),
No - Kita
Unknown swing voters - byj prplhz
I am voting no to this
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@Rels why did you vote no on D1 government? your filter suggests you wanted Grack/HK as chancellor, and that you pretty much conf-town read rayn for a long time, yet your D1 vote shows you going against it
I'm confused as to why you voted no?
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also hot take and unrelated I have no idea why people are pushing this "Conversion is very angry as mafia/scum" thing..
that was probably my 2nd most level-headed game, next to Vendee
@Grack you even called me relaxed in that game, which is why you townread me
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On November 09 2018 07:17 kitaman27 wrote:
I think today was actually a really good day for information even if I don't pass.
Conversion suddenly changing his view of me and Rels is really telling I think.
I’m sorry that Rels made some posts that made him look better than you in my eyes, and that makes it “sudden”
If you’re town I seriously don’t understand your logic this game.
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On November 09 2018 07:14 raynpelikoneet wrote:
I think i want to vote yes here.
Do you want to vote yes on kita and no on Rels?
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I have 10 minutes before I leave and change votes.
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before I have to leave and can change votes**
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On November 09 2018 07:37 kitaman27 wrote:Show nested quote +On November 09 2018 07:26 Conversion wrote:On November 09 2018 07:14 raynpelikoneet wrote:
I think i want to vote yes here. Do you want to vote yes on kita and no on Rels? I'm not rayn, but I think "here" is pretty obviously referring to yes on this vote for me.
Thanks Captain Obvious. Want to tell me wif he wants to vote Rels as well?
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I apologize for missing this round of voting— that’s completely on me. Something came up and I wasn’t able to get on here to vote/play.
Great job on passing a liberal policy— also @kitaman before this yoy said rayn was facist/hitler trying to sabotage into a rels/him facist policy passing— why wouldn’t rayn just sabotage my government and turn thread sentiment against me? it’d be safe enough to do.
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we were at 2L 6F, now we're at 1L 4F.
don't we have an astronomically low chance of not drawing a liberal card?
1/5 we don't draw liberal * 1/4 we don't draw liberal * 1/3 we don't draw liberal = 1.6% chance assuming no one lied
or am I bad and not understanding card drawing probabilities?
actually thinking about it, you're right. assuming no one lied 4 is the best possible option. even if someone did lie, we'd be at a 4-2 and rayn would get presidential power
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On November 13 2018 00:48 raynpelikoneet wrote:
I think we are 1L5F no?
I think we are at 1L4F-- it's the only thing that makes your plan 4 100% liberal draw if we pass two governments
6L 11F -> drew 1L 2F
5L 9F -> drew 2L 1F
3L 8F -> drew 1L 2F
2L 6F -> drew 1L 2F
1L 4F
Pass enough times to draw 2 "random" policies, we enact 2 facists worst case scenario
we are now at 1L 2F before shuffle, which means the next town/town government puts us at 5 liberal policies and a shuffle
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pass two policies** not two governments
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I'll do 3 or 4, so fine by me.
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Voted no. Will be back after deadline
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gg all! sorry I was MIA towards the end-- ran into a lot of random little things keeping me a bit too busy to pay attention. I'll try to be better in the future
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EPT
