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[T] MS Paint-Off Mafia - Page 12

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geript
Profile Joined February 2013
10024 Posts
August 20 2017 06:26 GMT
#2826
idk, it just seems like you use a magic 8 ball for your reads and you post a shit ton; I just don't feel like I can get a good read on you.
geript
Profile Joined February 2013
10024 Posts
August 20 2017 06:40 GMT
#2827
Plus, there's Rayn's read on you which I don't think is new exactly, but it's the first Town!rayn read I've seen. But I also really liked ritoky's read on you today. I don't think you/HF/ritoky is a reasonable scum team.

But I don't really like HF including ritoky in his could kill Damdred list. Like I hate when HF claimed the check and I hate that it feels like HF has gotten in more shit fights this game. I hate it more that when I go through HF's filter I still understand where he's coming from and still like who he's pushing and why. Maybe I'm too deep in on it, but I still just think he's Town.
geript
Profile Joined February 2013
10024 Posts
August 20 2017 06:51 GMT
#2829
On August 20 2017 15:44 Jealous wrote:
Has HF explained why he used his check on ritoky? Not saying he hasn't but I forgot if he did and it's a pain to check filters on mobile.

Because he's an unlikely frame target. Which I agree with. But he was also to many a bit of a question mark.

It's kinda funny, I kinda think HF is lying about the green check and that HF is doing it as Town.
geript
Profile Joined February 2013
10024 Posts
August 20 2017 08:10 GMT
#2832
FWIW HF, I don't think your argument on Rayn angling to switch to Jealous is very good. I don't think it makes him anything.
geript
Profile Joined February 2013
10024 Posts
August 20 2017 08:22 GMT
#2835
On August 20 2017 03:28 Tumblewood wrote:
i'm pretty sure at least 2/3 mafia are in hf, geript, es. third one could be jealous. maybe even rels. but i don't feel great about either of those anymore

On August 20 2017 03:32 Tumblewood wrote:
this is kinda backwards logic but maybe lynching rels is the better play here. either he is mafia, in which case i am totally fine with being wrong, or he is town and maybe the judges put hf and geript in the other pool. because they're gonna say if he flips town, "nope i would lynch him again. 100% had all the signs, basically claimed scum," but i think it is clear that the case they have is much weaker than they are giving it credit for. you can tell because they are basically trying to bully town into the lynch instead of letting the case speak for itself.
then again i still think jealous has a better chance of flipping mafia. and i like lynching mafia.

It's really odd to me that no one is talking about these fucked up statements by TW.

HF and I have been pretty vocal on Rels being scum. TW basically has HF and I as scum. Like the normal reaction is that "Hey my scum reads are voting for the other guy." And yet, TW is basically arguing the merits of lynching Rels.

On August 18 2017 05:49 Tumblewood wrote:
and now the poe is down to four and a half. in order it would probably go:

all townreads combined (40% scum) + Show Spoiler +
because you can never be 100%
sure

rels (35%) + Show Spoiler +
i really like that rels considered hf bluffing the vest, because i was thinking the same thing. (and if he were mafia and believed hf chose a check, why not kill him just in case.) still gonna need some actual posting though

es (45%) + Show Spoiler +
small filter, hard to make heads or tails of, but at least high-effort

hf (50%) + Show Spoiler +
hard to read. can push me into oblivion as either alignment.

jealous (60%) + Show Spoiler +
most of his reads are "things to like, things to dislike... could be town or scum"

geript (70%) + Show Spoiler +
i call this tell, "pushing lynchbait relentlessly despite thorough defense and debunking of most of his points"



I assume this is least scum to most scum (though it's kinda interesting Rels is more townie than "the rest of Town"). Like he even seems to be posting a reason to townread Rels even though he's half ass calling him scum.

I don't get why this guy hasn't been bottom 3
geript
Profile Joined February 2013
10024 Posts
August 20 2017 08:23 GMT
#2836
On August 20 2017 17:12 Holyflare wrote:
I do so we'll just agree to disagree. Every argument or thing he's pushed this game has been trash.

I'm not disagreeing with you here other than the Copcake push. Just that that particular argument is bad.
geript
Profile Joined February 2013
10024 Posts
August 20 2017 08:27 GMT
#2838
On August 20 2017 17:24 Holyflare wrote:
Cake's quoted posts on eversince make him definitely mafia btw.

?
geript
Profile Joined February 2013
10024 Posts
August 20 2017 08:30 GMT
#2840
NM, I was looking at the first one.
geript
Profile Joined February 2013
10024 Posts
August 20 2017 08:30 GMT
#2841
How does Cake get Ever to top Town?
geript
Profile Joined February 2013
10024 Posts
August 20 2017 08:32 GMT
#2843
It's bad, but for the most part when Cake posts, I just gloss over it at this point.
geript
Profile Joined February 2013
10024 Posts
August 20 2017 16:27 GMT
#2848
I don't think my hopeless read has aged well per se; the ratio of posts I like to shitposts has gone up. His TW/vig rant does feel a overblown It's a valid criticism that it's hard to tell why he scumreads people (other than TW); but that's far more valid for other people. But I think there are fair points about how he can just be posting. I'm pretty sure Hopeless posts far less as scum; I'd expect maybe half the filter size or less. Even if he doesn't explain his reads, I can understand both where he's at and how he gets there relatively easily. I find it hard to give up my early read on him for his posts toward FF and HF.
geript
Profile Joined February 2013
10024 Posts
August 20 2017 16:51 GMT
#2850
I like ritoky's posts and reads on D2. The only possible scum team for HF imo is HF+Rayn+Ritoky. While the green check on ritoky is mostly free if Jealous + Rels are town (as I don't think ritoky has any reasonable chance of getting lynched there); I don't see a world where HF greenchecks ritoky and mod-confirms Rayn when he's scum and they aren't partners. HF might mod-confirm town!Rayn as scum to prevent having to go through the backlash of lynching town!Rayn when he's OGI, that seems less likely than HF just powering through. Plus, HF 100% shoots mod-confirmed Rayn if HF is scum and Rayn isn't.

I like how ritoky gets to "all 3 lynch candidates are town" on D2. I'm kinda biased because I already have a reasons to think Jealous is town (which are kinda shared).


That leaves us with:
1. Raynpelikoneet
5. Tumblewood
9. Copcake
11. Conversion
13. Onegu replaced by Eversince

geript
Profile Joined February 2013
10024 Posts
August 20 2017 17:03 GMT
#2851
I side with Palmer. If Rayn is scum this game, then the game is invalid and idc. There rules are bad and Artanis should feel bad for them; Rayn should've been modkilled. I think it's easy to put TW and Ever at the bottom of that list.

I think right now it's TW > Ever > Conversion > Cop. I'd probably read Cop town if I could ever understand how she gets where she gets. It's dumb, but I really want to believe that Conversion's early post on Hopeless (saying 2 posts when one was /in) is meaningful.
geript
Profile Joined February 2013
10024 Posts
August 20 2017 17:25 GMT
#2853
Fair. Every time I've lynched a mod-confirmed (or watched it happen) it's always been wrong. I don't mod-confirm readily either.

Though, that's another reason to find you Town; I was modconfirmed in that UoN sentinel game with Wave and got modkilled because of BS when you were scum. You refused to give me confirmed status.
geript
Profile Joined February 2013
10024 Posts
August 20 2017 17:42 GMT
#2857
There's 0 chance HF green checks Town as mafia in that situation. It removes a future potential ML. It's not how I've ever seen HF play or think as mafia. As a matter of fact, HF+ ritoky is a far more believable scum team than HF+Rayn for numerous reasons.
geript
Profile Joined February 2013
10024 Posts
August 20 2017 17:42 GMT
#2858
Really though, why do I bother.
geript
Profile Joined February 2013
10024 Posts
August 20 2017 18:35 GMT
#2865
On August 21 2017 03:18 Holyflare wrote:
Tw tried to bs that mafia had a rb and question why I'm not dead when that's been posted as false forever now. He's not reading anything and must die. He found out about it and still called me mafia anyway. His jealous is mafia but maybe we lynch rels post was so bs.

It might sound dumb, but I kinda don't want to post too much on TW. I kinda think the judges need to be pushed in the first part of the day and forgot/focused elsewhere for D2 noms. It just feels like a waste of time spent.
geript
Profile Joined February 2013
10024 Posts
August 20 2017 20:39 GMT
#2874
Wtf are these nominations?
geript
Profile Joined February 2013
10024 Posts
August 20 2017 20:48 GMT
#2879
On August 17 2017 05:05 Tumblewood wrote:
i don't remember why i thought ff was town. but i think he is. so i'm gonna put my vote on 1der for now and speed read both their filters

On August 17 2017 05:08 Tumblewood wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 15 2017 07:44 Hopeless1der wrote:
On August 15 2017 07:43 Fecalfeast wrote:
On August 15 2017 07:38 Hopeless1der wrote:
I mean that largely comes down to: have a larger filter than I do, because my filters are usually garbage tier.

So you take a list of everyone in the game available to be lynched and call them town or scum based on filter size.

Do you think that counts as being helpful? To me it looks a lot like you are forcing yourself to make a reads post which makes me read you scummy based just on your list and the explanation thereof

well get me lynched then bro.

i like this post. i like ff's posts more but i like this post. there is probably not a right answer here

How in the fuck does TW go from, "Oh man, I think I remember FF was town but idk why so I'll vote for Hopeless" to "Man FF's posts are good and there's only this one Hopeless post I like" in the course of 3 fucking minutes. How on earth does a Town!TW read and analyze FF's admittedly shorter filter in 3 minutes while also reading Hopeless not at all short filter? It's literally the picture of not caring about who to lynch between Hopeless and FF. It's literally picking up one little thing as an excuse. Afterwards you get this:
On August 17 2017 05:16 Tumblewood wrote:
town
cake
rit
ff

sorta town
rayn
conv
geript
jealous

at least 2/3 mafia are in here
1der
damdred
hf
es
rels

So clearly, he has some reason for why he dislikes Hopeless' posts. A reason which I will remind you that he did not have previously in his posting. It's not like there aren't reasons he can find to have both Hopeless and FF be town and paranoia lynch Rayn. It's not like he stands up to HF making the lynch between Hopeless and FF or goes super tin foil theory. It's not like he makes a (imo reasonable argument) to ignore OGI and just lynch Rayn because he's the scummiest for what he's done.

[QUOTE]On August 18 2017 04:40 geript wrote:
[QUOTE]On August 18 2017 04:34 Tumblewood wrote:
[QUOTE]On August 18 2017 04:31 geript wrote:
[QUOTE]On August 18 2017 04:25 Tumblewood wrote:
[QUOTE]On August 18 2017 04:16 geript wrote:
[QUOTE]On August 18 2017 04:07 Tumblewood wrote:
[QUOTE]On August 18 2017 03:53 geript wrote:
[QUOTE]On August 18 2017 03:43 raynpelikoneet wrote:
[QUOTE]On August 18 2017 03:41 geript wrote:
[QUOTE]On August 17 2017 11:00 geript wrote:
[QUOTE]On August 17 2017 10:39 Damdred wrote:
[QUOTE]On August 17 2017 09:08 geript wrote:
If the next lynch isn't a group of Rels, Ever, TW or pretty close I may just flip a lid[/QUOTE]

Well first to the vote Thing.

Like if all three are town the switches do not make a real difference, maybe some of the awkward votes (tumble, rels etc.).

If hopeless is scum I think they got pretty lucky dodging his lynch but the save of tw of him would be equally juicy. Like if this is the case it is a lot more interesting with how the vote swing really the last minute. But if hopeless is sick I think it becomes less likely that read is scum just because of him helping out hopeless near the top and fivi ng him the chance of being lynched.

If Ryan is sick I think the game is stupid and things are worse than I thought. (Unlikely)

Ritoky not voting is interesting, but I don't thinknthatbis alignment indicative atm.

As for your pool I don't think ever should be in quite yet. But maybe soon depending on what she does.[/QUOTE]
I don't care about the power vote thing because I'm probably dead. Sure, Ever can be replaced in that pool. But I'd be replacing Ever with Cop or you, but overall we have the least to work with between Rels/Ever and I want to be able to lynch into them and I want to keep pressure on them to play. I don't think the value of having you up for lynch right now is there. I don't think Cop will magically or mystically get better/make sense/be towny by being up for lynch. It's super egregious that she was even in the top 3 on D1.

What I care about is this:
[QUOTE]On August 17 2017 05:05 Tumblewood wrote:
i don't remember why i thought ff was town. but i think he is. so i'm gonna put my vote on 1der for now and speed read both their filters[/QUOTE]
[QUOTE]On August 17 2017 05:08 Tumblewood wrote:
[QUOTE]On August 15 2017 07:44 Hopeless1der wrote:
[QUOTE]On August 15 2017 07:43 Fecalfeast wrote:
[QUOTE]On August 15 2017 07:38 Hopeless1der wrote:
I mean that largely comes down to: have a larger filter than I do, because my filters are usually garbage tier.[/QUOTE]
So you take a list of everyone in the game available to be lynched and call them town or scum based on filter size.

Do you think that counts as being helpful? To me it looks a lot like you are forcing yourself to make a reads post which makes me read you scummy based just on your list and the explanation thereof [/QUOTE]
well get me lynched then bro.[/QUOTE]
i like this post. i like ff's posts more but i like this post. there is probably not a right answer here[/QUOTE]
How in the fuck does TW go from, "Oh man, I think I remember FF was town but idk why so I'll vote for Hopeless" to "Man FF's posts are good and there's only this one Hopeless post I like" in the course of 3 fucking minutes. How on earth does a Town!TW read and analyze FF's admittedly shorter filter in 3 minutes while also reading Hopeless not at all short filter? It's literally the picture of not caring about who to lynch between Hopeless and FF. It's literally picking up one little thing as an excuse. Afterwards you get this:
[QUOTE]On August 17 2017 05:16 Tumblewood wrote:
town
cake
rit
ff

sorta town
rayn
conv
geript
jealous

at least 2/3 mafia are in here
1der
damdred
hf
es
rels[/QUOTE]
So clearly, he has some reason for why he dislikes Hopeless' posts. A reason which I will remind you that he did not have previously in his posting. It's not like there aren't reasons he can find to have both Hopeless and FF be town and paranoia lynch Rayn. It's not like he stands up to HF making the lynch between Hopeless and FF or goes super tin foil theory. It's not like he makes a (imo reasonable argument) to ignore OGI and just lynch Rayn because he's the scummiest for what he's done.

I just want the judges to actually fucking read what I post and listen to me.
[/QUOTE]
Quoting this because it shouldn't be forgotten. HF's last post is important too. But this is big.
[/QUOTE]
Noone cares about Tumblewood at the time. He has been asked to clear the shit on him and it's up to him so no need to talk about him.[/QUOTE]
No. That's bullshit. Look at this:
[QUOTE]On August 18 2017 02:18 Tumblewood wrote:
updated list

town
1der
cake
rit
rayn
conv

don't think he's mafia but u can never be sure
hf

the mafia should all be in here
jealous
geript
es
damdred
rels[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE]On August 18 2017 02:46 Tumblewood wrote:
[QUOTE]On August 18 2017 02:42 geript wrote:
[QUOTE]On August 18 2017 02:28 Tumblewood wrote:
[QUOTE]On August 18 2017 02:24 Conversion wrote:
[QUOTE]On August 18 2017 02:18 Tumblewood wrote:
updated list

town
1der
cake
rit
rayn
conv

don't think he's mafia but u can never be sure
hf

the mafia should all be in here
jealous
geript
es
damdred
rels[/QUOTE]

can you explain your cake and geript read? I'm curious.[/QUOTE]
i think i already explained my cake read, but the short version is some of her reads are so illogical and her reactions to attacks are so righteous that i don't think she could fake it as mafia.
i previously thought geript was kinda town for the angle shooting thing ritoky pointed out, but i haven't noticed geript at all since, so it would make sense that he could be the mafia i'm missing. i definitely need to read his filter again though, i haven't read it in quite a while.[/QUOTE]
Lol. Clearly I am completely unnoticable[/QUOTE]
i didn't say i had a good read on you. but if you don't establish yourself as very likely town you go to the PoE pool. that's pretty much how it works.[/QUOTE]
Clearly he's "caught up." Yet he flat out ignores a huge ass case on him? He flat out tries to say I'm scummy yet has nothing to call me scum for? His townreads are shit.

Of course it's important to bring back up because I'm not going to let him slide a rock solid case under the rug. [/QUOTE]
  • i explicitly said i was still catching up (and i still haven't gotten to the middle pages between where i left off and page 80)
  • i did not say you are scummy. i said you are PoE, not that you are scummy. you will remain PoE until i read your filter, which i will do when i am at home at my pc. also i don't know what huge case you are referring to. (and my top townreads are strong. i reserve the right to shove it in your face postgame if i am right on all of those.)


so basically you have misrepresented me in every single thing you said. congrats.[/QUOTE]
TW: "Here's my updated reads"
Also TW: "I haven't finished catching up"

TW: "Puts X person in a list that contains all scum"
Also TW: "X person is not scummy"

The yo-yo is real[/QUOTE]
have you ever heard of process of elimination? it seems you have not, so let me break it down for you:
step 1: read the game thread and, when i feel like it, people's filters. post also.
step 2: when someone looks very townie, especially if they have looked that way for an extended period of time, eliminate them from the lynch pool.
step 3: as the game goes on, you may spot more very townie players, and eventually you will have a lynch pool where you can be reasonably confident in the success of a lynch from it, despite not having reasons that those players are mafia.[/QUOTE]
First, when I do a PoE and separate the groups into "town" and "contains the whole scum team," by definition you are calling the people in the second group scum. Sure there's probably 1-2 townies in that group, but again you're saying those people are likely scum.

Here's the important question: If you're town and haven't even caught up yet STILL, why are you even doing PoE reads or giving "updated reads" to begin with?[/QUOTE]
because i am caught-up enough to eliminate my townreads from the lynch pool, and i don't have to be caught up to say "i do not at this time have a strong reason to townread this person."[/QUOTE]
My case on TW is [url=http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/525420-ms-paint-off-mafia?page=73#1445]HERE[/url]
TW's return to the thread is [url=http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/525420-ms-paint-off-mafia?page=87#1723]HERE[/url]
It is a minimum of 14 pages of things that happened that TW is saying is totally irrelevant to reads. Who the fuck does that as town?

[QUOTE]On August 20 2017 03:28 Tumblewood wrote:
i'm pretty sure at least 2/3 mafia are in hf, geript, es. third one could be jealous. maybe even rels. but i don't feel great about either of those anymore[/QUOTE]
[QUOTE]On August 20 2017 03:32 Tumblewood wrote:
this is kinda backwards logic but maybe lynching rels is the better play here. either he is mafia, in which case i am totally fine with being wrong, or he is town and maybe the judges put hf and geript in the other pool. because they're gonna say if he flips town, "nope i would lynch him again. 100% had all the signs, basically claimed scum," but i think it is clear that the case they have is much weaker than they are giving it credit for. you can tell because they are basically trying to bully town into the lynch instead of letting the case speak for itself.
then again i still think jealous has a better chance of flipping mafia. and i like lynching mafia.[/QUOTE]
It's really odd to me that no one is talking about these fucked up statements by TW.

HF and I have been pretty vocal on Rels being scum. TW basically has HF and I as scum. Like the normal reaction is that "Hey my scum reads are voting for the other guy." And yet, TW is basically arguing the merits of lynching Rels.

[QUOTE]On August 18 2017 05:49 Tumblewood wrote:
and now the poe is down to four and a half. in order it would probably go:

all townreads combined (40% scum) + Show Spoiler +
because you can never be 100%
sure

rels (35%) + Show Spoiler +
i really like that rels considered hf bluffing the vest, because i was thinking the same thing. (and if he were mafia and believed hf chose a check, why not kill him just in case.) still gonna need some actual posting though

es (45%) + Show Spoiler +
small filter, hard to make heads or tails of, but at least high-effort

hf (50%) + Show Spoiler +
hard to read. can push me into oblivion as either alignment.

jealous (60%) + Show Spoiler +
most of his reads are "things to like, things to dislike... could be town or scum"

geript (70%) + Show Spoiler +
i call this tell, "pushing lynchbait relentlessly despite thorough defense and debunking of most of his points"


[/QUOTE]
I assume this is least scum to most scum (though it's kinda interesting Rels is more townie than "the rest of Town"). Like he even seems to be posting a reason to townread Rels even though he's half ass calling him scum.

I don't get why this guy hasn't been bottom 3



geript
Profile Joined February 2013
10024 Posts
August 20 2017 20:49 GMT
#2880
Fuck I fucked up the formatting.
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