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On June 09 2017 13:02 Conversion wrote:
also can you explain why you wanted me or pb dead if you died somehow N2?
like what makes us scummy. you haven't been playing this game at all, you haven't died with a doc claim, and now you're stuck in a spot where we have 3 blue claims with you having the least town cred and absolutely no credibility in helping the game move in any direction
because i thought everyone else in the game was very townie and you two somewhat disappointing, like you were there but had a small thread presence. + Show Spoiler +i keep trying to reword that sentence to explain what i mean and it's very hard.
i had some people i wasn't comfortable writing off just yet but who had overall looked pretty townie, and some who i had already written off, and you two. it's been a process of elimination sort of game for me. since then all of the backburner suspicions have either claimed or been green-checked by ritoky. i am 70% certain it's either hf/you or hf/pb, unless ritoky is lying. maybe ts could be scum? i think i wrote him off but then he stopped posting.
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On June 09 2017 13:06 Conversion wrote:
so why wouldn't BH immediately switch his vote onto Fidei if he saw that unfolding?
he might but even with only him and onegu the pb wagon would still lead. i doubt ls voted fidei out of specific conviction and instead just jumped on the biggest non-me wagon, so it still works out in that scenario
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On June 09 2017 13:19 Conversion wrote:
so even at this point of the game you think LS has more thread presence than me? like his last few posts were literally nothing and his excuse was "I tend to sheep more as townie"
which is absolute bollocks to me because I have no idea what you normally do as townie.
for what it's worth I'm almost certain scum team is you and LS, but I'd rather have other people weigh in and read their decisions instead.
If anyone wants to know my reason why I think scum team is LS and TW:
Out of the 3 blues, TW is the most suspicious. This is the most active he's been because he realizes he can't just coast his doctor claim to LYLO and then win by convincing one of the townies.
I actually think that Fidei might have been inactive and when the shenanny happened, LS and TW made an executive decision to bus Fidei instead of trying to swing a 6-2 (7-2 with BH if he's on Fidei) onto a townie and possibly fail.
The fact that TW is completely ignoring LS town play and reading me, pb, and even tubesock before LS is suspicious to me.
good night peeps I'll catch up on the thread tomorrow.
i don't read ls off of thread presence or any of that. at some point in the first two cycles of a town game ls makes his alignment totally obvious with a post that misses the context of something in an overtly townie way. it's hard to explain but if you'd like i can point out the post that made it obvious for me this game.
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On June 09 2017 12:27 Conversion wrote:
OK here's the way I'm seeing it:
Ritoky is actually cop. Reading through his filter and his claim, the play makes sense. It backs mafia into a corner because now they have to scramble to justify their fake blue claim and try to sheep town onto the correct claim.
So it's basically HF vs Ritoky. Ritoky is very much likely to die N3 I think. If I was scum, I'd want to shoot Ritoky or RB him (if there is a roleblocker) to prevent any more information getting out for D4, otherwise we can just leave the blue shit behind us and find the last mafia and have ritoky check HF or TW and town wins the game. Obviously mafia won't do that, so we should focus on this day figuring out who is scummates with HF or TW, and lynching him.
I might be wrong, but I think mafia may try to tunnel all their focus on pushing the focus of D3 into who is the blue claim liar, and try to misdirect town into mislynching the correct blue claim and killing off ritoky. I think that's the best mafia player here, which is why I suggest we pressure non-blue claimed players and finding the last scummate. More likely than not whoever is mafia is going to either fight really hard to keep attention off his last scummate, or bus him and try to play out of a 50/50 lynch chance with 4 townies and 1 scum.
Any thoughts? I may be missing something
i'm not staunchly opposed to the idea. there may be some advantage in allowing blue roles another night, because we either get a potential save, a cop check, a vig shot, or a dead (and thus confirmed) blue.
if we do lynch a non-claimed blue today, i want it to be pb because i'm starting to think you're town and i just didn't pay enough attention to you. i'd give him a 60% chance of flipping scum, and then if he doesn't we try and solve the whole blue thing on d4. not a huge loss to ML today because whoever that is would probably have been MLed later in the game anyway.
so yeah, that's a solid plan if everyone else isn't too busy trying to kill each other.
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yeahhhh okay after rereading tubesock's filter i can see why he's probably town, but i thought i had better reasons for thinking he was town. whatever, i'm still 90% confident
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On June 09 2017 21:11 Holyflare wrote:
And also around his claim you can 100% see I'm blue already calling him out.
this is bullshit. you don't distrust a blue claim just because you're blue, that's not how it works. you distrusting me is just setup for a later claim
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On June 09 2017 21:10 Conversion wrote:
I never liked TW's blue claim and I don't like his play so I'm inclined to agree with you, but idk what the other town members think since no one else is talking :p
if you scumread people because you don't like their play you will end up townreading hf 100% of the time and scumreading me 100% of the time. i get mislynched every other game because everyone hates my play so much
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and if you don't think i would claim to alleviate pressure and then ride the town cred for two days as blue, look at tortoise mafia where i do exactly that.
(i have my entire meta in a spreadsheet in my profile, so don't ask me to link it)
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hold on one hot second actually. i know for a fact that no one but me has gotten the pm saying "you were roleblocked". so either we don't have or haven't been using our rb this whole game if i'm mafia.
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On June 10 2017 06:34 Tubesock wrote:Show nested quote +On June 09 2017 23:30 Tumblewood wrote:
hold on one hot second actually. i know for a fact that no one but me has gotten the pm saying "you were roleblocked". so either we don't have or haven't been using our rb this whole game if i'm mafia. To be fair, you could be lying and they RB'd the dead as they shot them.
i realize now that this evidence has some holes in it
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On June 10 2017 06:54 Holyflare wrote:Show nested quote +On June 10 2017 06:52 Tumblewood wrote:On June 10 2017 06:34 Tubesock wrote:On June 09 2017 23:30 Tumblewood wrote:
hold on one hot second actually. i know for a fact that no one but me has gotten the pm saying "you were roleblocked". so either we don't have or haven't been using our rb this whole game if i'm mafia. To be fair, you could be lying and they RB'd the dead as they shot them. i realize now that this evidence has some holes in it If you are doc then you should be calling out ritoky hardcore.
why should i?
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hf, i have a question for you:
(correct me if i'm wrong to assume your skepticism was related to your role)
why did being vig make you skeptical of my claim?
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On June 10 2017 07:17 Holyflare wrote:
But there's really 0 reason for me to claim at that point. If I'm mafia with someone I would have had a giant lynch pool of almost the entire game. There's simply 0 point to ne claiming now.
that's clearly wrong?
pre-claim your lynch pool was grack, btdt, ts, pb, conv, but you should have a strong suspicion that there's a cop in the game with two checks reducing that pool by up to three. post-claim you have one, maybe 2 lynches set up for you among people who weren't even in consideration and your pool outside of that is still three people. as mafia you gained mislynches from that play.
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On June 10 2017 07:21 Holyflare wrote:
Look at it from mafia perspective. They have a gf, probably think there's a cop.
Do they leave the blue alive forever blocking him knowing there's another blue going to wreck their shit? Or do they kill him?
I'm pretty sure they kill him.
you can rb the doc and try to kill the cop with your shot, or even leave him alive to allow a 3-way claim war. honestly that question is just stupid, of course that's a fine play. plus then when the other blue claims your shit would be wrecked anyway but now you get to waste another mislynch. seemed to work out fine for you.
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On June 10 2017 07:32 Holyflare wrote:Show nested quote +On June 10 2017 07:30 Tubesock wrote:On June 10 2017 07:24 Holyflare wrote:On June 10 2017 07:22 Tumblewood wrote:On June 10 2017 07:17 Holyflare wrote:
But there's really 0 reason for me to claim at that point. If I'm mafia with someone I would have had a giant lynch pool of almost the entire game. There's simply 0 point to ne claiming now. that's clearly wrong? pre-claim your lynch pool was grack, btdt, ts, pb, conv, but you should have a strong suspicion that there's a cop in the game with two checks reducing that pool by up to three. post-claim you have one, maybe 2 lynches set up for you among people who weren't even in consideration and your pool outside of that is still three people. as mafia you gained mislynches from that play. I didn't think there was a cop because I'm not mafia  Don't want to get into hypothetical fairy land. I'm just simply town vig that didn't want to get into a claim war, wanted your bull shit to end if you didn't die and didn't want to lose us a mislynch. Uhm how does that make sense? I thought I was going to die last night almost 100%. I wanted to make sure I told people I didn't shoot so there couldn't be any confusion with rbs, wanted the other blue to claim today if there was one so I could figure it out. I was spending all last night filtering and metaing and came to the conclusion 90% of the game was town and couldn't figure out who mafia was. Making it increasingly likely yoir claim was fake.
the reason you claimed was so you could tell people you didn't shoot? so there couldn't be any confusion with rbs? even though no one but me ever claimed to be roleblocked at any point?
and why are you so suspicious of an unCCed blue who has not pushed any sort of mafia agenda? unCCed claim is 1000x stronger than filtering and metaing is in a PoE
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claiming because you think you're about to die is 100% useless if you are actually blue, because when you die you flip and everyone can see your role anyway, and you had nothing new to say about rbs. or if you don't die, congratulations you outed yourself and now mafia can keep you from ever shooting.
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On June 10 2017 07:40 Prison Break wrote:Show nested quote +On June 10 2017 07:39 Tumblewood wrote:
claiming because you think you're about to die is 100% useless if you are actually blue, because when you die you flip and everyone can see your role anyway, and you had nothing new to say about rbs. or if you don't die, congratulations you outed yourself and now mafia can keep you from ever shooting. Uh what? So you're claiming mafia?
??? no. i'm referencing the post where hf says he was 100% certain he was going to die last night. it makes sense to claim if you think you're about to get lynched, but if you think you're about to be NKed it's useless.
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On June 10 2017 07:45 ritoky wrote:
alright fuck it bois.
ritoky
btdt
grackaroni
conversion
PB
we down to auto this shit? any objection?
objection. it should go like this:
hf -> (rit if that doesn't work) -> pb -> (conv if that doesn't work) -> (ts if that doesn't work)
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On June 10 2017 07:51 Conversion wrote:Show nested quote +On June 10 2017 07:49 Tumblewood wrote:On June 10 2017 07:45 ritoky wrote:
alright fuck it bois.
ritoky
btdt
grackaroni
conversion
PB
we down to auto this shit? any objection? objection. it should go like this: hf -> (rit if that doesn't work) -> pb -> (conv if that doesn't work) -> (ts if that doesn't work) possible mafia -> mislynch -> mislynch -> mislynch -> possible mafia game losing order right there
the idea is you don't lynch the ones in parenthesis unless the guy in front of them flips town. and i disagree with the assertion that pb is a mislynch
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i will repeat this because no one seemed to understand it:
On June 10 2017 07:32 Holyflare wrote:Show nested quote +On June 10 2017 07:30 Tubesock wrote:On June 10 2017 07:24 Holyflare wrote:On June 10 2017 07:22 Tumblewood wrote:On June 10 2017 07:17 Holyflare wrote:
But there's really 0 reason for me to claim at that point. If I'm mafia with someone I would have had a giant lynch pool of almost the entire game. There's simply 0 point to ne claiming now. that's clearly wrong? pre-claim your lynch pool was grack, btdt, ts, pb, conv, but you should have a strong suspicion that there's a cop in the game with two checks reducing that pool by up to three. post-claim you have one, maybe 2 lynches set up for you among people who weren't even in consideration and your pool outside of that is still three people. as mafia you gained mislynches from that play. I didn't think there was a cop because I'm not mafia Don't want to get into hypothetical fairy land. I'm just simply town vig that didn't want to get into a claim war, wanted your bull shit to end if you didn't die and didn't want to lose us a mislynch. Uhm how does that make sense? I thought I was going to die last night almost 100%. I wanted to make sure I told people I didn't shoot so there couldn't be any confusion with rbs, wanted the other blue to claim today if there was one so I could figure it out. I was spending all last night filtering and metaing and came to the conclusion 90% of the game was town and couldn't figure out who mafia was. Making it increasingly likely yoir claim was fake.
let's start with the assumption that HF is town and the goal of his claim was to eliminate any confusion with roleblocks and inform the other blue that they should claim.
if that is the case, then HF's claim didn't do shit. if he had died that night without claiming, the blue would still know what's up after seeing the flip, and everyone would have known that either i was RB'd, the person who died was RB'd, or no one was RB'd, because no one but me ever claimed to be roleblocked. so that part was useless too. that means that HF's claim was completely unnecessary for what he claimed he tried to do with it.
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EPT
