EPT[M][N] I'm a cop you idiot mafia --- the reboot
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ExO_
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claiming Vanilla Town. Going back to PoE | ||
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On December 06 2016 15:52 Tumblewood wrote: ugh I hope this isn't "hi I'm VT bye" because night doesn't mean we can't play. especially when you won't get killed for your reads because N0 And what if it is? | ||
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On December 06 2016 15:56 Tumblewood wrote: pls it's 25/42 odds (so about 59%?) of prerequisites. anyway even if the odds slightly favor us I'd rather play a solid game with real reads and such. blue roles are boring Cop should 100% claim tomorrow, regardless of what happens. | ||
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On December 06 2016 17:30 Koshi wrote: Oh no doc save N0. That makes more sense. I am going to do nothing and see if mafia respect kills me. If Koshi doesn't die tonight kill him tomorrow | ||
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Looks kinda bad though with doc dead :/. I'll be honest I dont feel like reading through the 45ish pages right now but maybe after I've had a little bit of time to relax | ||
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I pretty much don't agree with NU's line of thinking regarding TW trying to buddy him, but I think his activity (lol) and bothering to explain it like that makes him town to me. Ray looks sketchy to me. TW looks Town. | ||
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On December 07 2016 00:21 Hopeless1der wrote: Why are there suggestions for the cop to claim during D1? Why not end of N1 when theres a chance at 2 checks? is his 1 post. I think scum if he says nothing else | ||
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NU says (I had a hell of a time trying to copy/paste this quote so I'm just copy pasting the direct portion): "His posts don't seem like he's trying to appear good rather like he's saying what he thinks." And I think this is a hella convoluted thing to say. Saying what you think isn't necessarily a town indicator, and conversely trying to appear good isn't soley a scum indicator. I don't have a good reason for this though, but twice he's said he likes to "reward town for giving a shit". [+ Show Spoiler + + Show Spoiler + On December 07 2016 14:26 Tumblewood wrote: it's my way of trying to get people to be active. I reward people for trying if town is dead. the way he's speaking about "rewarding town" instead of rewarding a player is really fucking off. You reward a player with town cred, you don't "reward town" for speaking. Best lead I have so far. But I'm skeptical. What if I'm just seeing your read and starting to suspect him because of that instead of actual scum slipping. hm :/ | ||
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"I don't have a good reason for this though, but twice he's said he likes to "reward town for giving a shit". I've switched to talking about TW again | ||
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Cop should claim ASAP This is the situation we are in: mislynch and lose. In an ideal world, cop doesn't claim today and we move on to night, coming back the next day with cop claiming and giving information. However if Scum, or the Cop is on the chopping block today, they will almost certainly claim/fake claim cop. If nobody is claiming cop at EoD it almost certainly means we are lynching VT. Our focus has to be getting through TODAY. We don't have the luxury of being able to reliably lynch 2 people. Our best bet of figuring out who is telling the truth, and who is lying is to get the discussion about it happening now. If nobody Counter Claims Cop, we're fine. If 2 people do claim cop, we want as much discussion time about it as possible to work it out. This mean cop is essentially going to die at night, and that kinda sucks. But I think its our best bet to actually get out of day 1. I can't see scum just laying down and dying if they are on the chopping block so the Claim/Counter Claim scenario happens in our best case scenario. We should get it going NOW instead of later. | ||
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On December 07 2016 16:26 Chairman Ray wrote: Just to expand on my previous point, I didn't mean that scum would only post in best case scenarios, but instead that they might mistakenly ignore a very obvious scenario that town wouldn't. The one scenario that was almost ignored was a blue getting killed N0. If they were town, they could have genuinely believed that if a blue died, we don't have to do anything differently, but if they were mafia, maybe they weren't planning to blue snipe so they ignored it. But the bigger thing they left out was the scenario that mafia fakeclaims, in which case there are no confirmed town or redchecks on D1. There's a fairly good chunk of math in this scenario which they shouldn't have ignored. Unless of course they knew that mafia wasn't going to fakeclaim, and look where we are now. So just to summarize, these are my suspicions: - TW and NU post math assuming that blue roles don't die - Koshi was killed, who I don't think was a blue snipe - TW and NU ignore the scenario that mafia fakeclaims - Mafia aren't fakeclaiming So yes, I think it's very possible that they were just speaking casually on whatever was at the top of their mind, but given that they decided to math out a very narrow scenario without much reasoning, and that scenario happened exactly as they assumed, it seems like a really big coincidence. This is what I have a problem with @cakepie. TW and NU post math that assume blue roles don't die. But that's not scummy in the slightest. Scum have absolutely 0 way of knowing if they are going to catch a blue or a VT. They mapped out scenarios in which blues don't die on N0 and then blues did die on N0. The scenario didn't happen exactly as they assumed. The lack of fake claiming at this point doesn't mean much. It will happen eventually but just because it hadn't happened (and especially when CR posted) doesn't mean it won't happen. Using all of that reasoning to imply that TW and NU are scum is complete bullshit imo. And the cherry on top is he back pedals with "but its possible they were just casually speaking whatever was on the top of their mind" Summed up "Yeah I wanna imply that you guys are scum with really bad reasoning, but not commit to it." Looks sketchy and very possible scum-filler type of post. | ||
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On December 08 2016 04:41 Hopeless1der wrote: Re: CR - I wouldn't dismiss the notion out of hand, but its not high on my gutcheck rating. Being able to come out on blue-planning is a really safe way for mafia to seem invested without actually doing anything. That is only compounded by the fact that our doc got shot first, rendering a huge portion of N0 reasoning useless for the purposes of planning. CR is at least trying to use those posts to get reads. Re: ExO - There are those two posts, and then there is him somehow thinking there are 50+ pages [#96. #97]. That might have been sarcasm? I'm not seeing a motive for him to do this as either faction other than straight up carelessness, its more of an annoyance than a scumread atm. I literally misread 5 as 50, b/c every other TL mafia game I've played (mostly I've played large ones) has a bajillion pages and I saw the 5 and thought it was 50. | ||
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On December 08 2016 15:24 Tumblewood wrote: gotta check cakepie's meta to see if being an asshat is his normal meta + Show Spoiler + inb4 this is also a subversive, manipulative trick designed intentionally to buddy NU and mislead town I don't know if you think you're spotting my mafia tricks or some shit but actually you're finding evidence where there is none. literally things that could go either way and you are construing them toward I am scum without hesitation I don't think cakepie is being an asshat. and I find the tone of your posts here to be odd. Saying they could go either way, instead of saying I'm town and you're clearly wrong I think says a lot about the position you are speaking from. | ||
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On December 08 2016 16:16 cakepie wrote: Oh, and will everyone please take note that I have ceased to tunneltown ExO. Thanks! What was the purpose of this post. At first it didn't bother me but the more I think about it, the more it makes no sense. Why say this without explaining it? Do you have any reasoning for town tunneling me, then cancelling it for some reason? Without explanation I can't see a town motivation for posting this | ||
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On December 08 2016 18:48 cakepie wrote: This guy, not even read, doesn't even know where and why I town tunneled him. Have you been IAW playing that other game again instead of playing the mafia game you signed up for? I'm drafting something on TW. Will get back to you. I'm asking you to explain why you stopped town tunneling me. Just announcing it serves no purpose for town. It doesn't help us in any way. What town motivation do you have for just announcing it without explaining | ||
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It's a gamble. If we lynch scum today we effectively buy an extra day. But if we guess wrong we lose. I'm not sure im comfortable lynching today, despite how bad TW looks as a whole | ||
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I'll be back | ||
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#170 TW looks better with this post at least. Hes at least trying to get people to talk #173 Don't like hopeless1der's post here. #180 NU trying to redirect Cakepie onto TW. Could see motive for this from both scum and town persepectives #182 In answer to NU's question here I didn't think TW was trying to buddy him. He did. I don't know what else he wants me to explain #185 this is gonna sound weird, but TW saying he's trying to make a scum case on NU instead of his town read makes no sense to me and sounds like the thing a scum player would do....which is why I think it makes him look more town. Under suspicion I don't think a scum player would just blantantly say things like this. Instead he reminds me a bit of myself getting scumread as VT in other TL Mafia games and trying to convince players I am town; subsequently the veterans turning everything I say into reasons why it makes me scum. idk When I've skimmed the thread I haven't liked TW, but the more I read in depth the more I question the idea of him being scum. #186 Cakepie trying to say I'm not forthcoming with information, when she literally wouldn't say information earlier saying "she didn't wanna give information to scum" Fuck that, its completely ridiculous. Misconstrues me considering the possibility that maybe I'm scum reading TW too hard b/c I'm trusting cakepie, into somehow I'm trying to blame her for something? tbh this whole post just annoys the shit out of me. #203 Chairman Ray literally saying he's only been pushing TW and NU. He's literally admitting to not considering or caring about anything else just pushing TW and NU #205 Cakepie should go read my dota mafia posts, and should look at the last game we played. When I'm town I usually just post whatever comes to mind. I don't sit and craft careful posts. When I'm scum I'm much more careful about what I post. You getting my stream of consciousness and seeing me move around on my reads is because I'm trying to sift through the information and am doubting myself as I go. Do you honestly think I'm faking this as scum? I have trouble believing that you do #213 fuck off #215 hmmmmm. I don't like what H1D is saying here. But if he's scum, why not go ahead and vote? I want to say that he's scum not wanting to be the 3rd vote, but it would no longer matter if he's the 3rd vote if town dies today anyway. Ugh. I don't like anything H1d is saying and I think it's affecting my perception of him #217 Alright if H1D was scum and TW was town he would jump on the vote here....upon closer look it seems like CR was only the 2nd vote here...so working this out and seeing that H1D did later join this wagon (I'm assuming it was indeed at 3 votes) that if TW is town then either both scum were voting here, or TW is indeed scum. #228 TW is trying really hard in this thread against a lot of people. It's really making me feel like he's town, but if he was he should probably be dead, or we have some combination of cakepie/H1D/CR as scum. #231-233. Okay my assumptions were wrong yet again. wtf just happened here. H1D hops on after CR/Cakepie unvoted? #234 CR still tunnelling NU very hard. I wish CR would consider some other possibility. To me he looks like he's more concerned with having presented a case and pushed it, rather than solving the game. Haven't read TW's case's yet, but I think he's trying far too hard to be scum. CR is super concerned with tunneling TW/NU. He cares more about sticking to those 2 reads than considering anything else. He started off kinda weak on them, and has considered nothing since then. CR is scum. | ||
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On December 09 2016 19:04 Chairman Ray wrote: ExO, I don't think your read on me is fair, and to some extent, it's my fault for hunting scum on my own rather than being engaged with town. I think that you are town, so I will explain to you exactly what my thought process was. I really need you and all remaining town to trust me, or at least take my reads seriously, because we all need to vote together tomorrow to lynch the mafia. Where I'm at right now is that TW and NU are the mafia, you are town, cakepie is town, hopeless is town, and obviously I am town. I have mainly pushed onto TW and NU because there are only two mafia, and it's most definitely those two. I think we can all agree that TW is mafia. I pushed onto NU many times and he's given me shoddy answers the first few times, and he's literally disappeared now and hasn't responded to anything else I posted. I posted a case on him that I want him to respond to, and I want all the town to consider as well, and so far, neither has happened. Also, nobody else has given a strong case against anybody else. Do you see why I have no reason to get off of those two? I haven't pushed much on anybody else besides TW and NU, but that doesn't mean I haven't been considering or caring about them. As for you, hopeless, and cake, there's a lot I like about your play, and a lot that I don't like, but there's little that I can point to and say "hmm, this play is really advancing the scum agenda, and scum would instinctively do this". I don't post townreads or speculative posts on people because me not being able to scumread someone doesn't mean someone else can't. If someone convinces me of a better option than TW or NU, I'm willing to reconsider. I should probably be more actively engaging with people, and that's my bad. I also feel that I'm being singled out for tunneling. If you look at other people's filters, Hopeless has been tunneling only on TW, cakepie has mostly been on TW and you, and you haven't been aggressive enough to even be considered for tunneling. So besides the fact that I literally said that I'm tunneling onto TW and NU, singling me out seems a little biased. I don't think I can agree TW is mafia. I'll admit I've been back and forth on him all game, and he's done some things that have looked scummy. But the type of posts he's made (particularly after #170), the big cases he posted, I don't think scum can fake that effort. A lot of people were tunneling him quite a bit but his reaction overall to that to me doesn't read scum now. I feel like pointing out that I'm singling you out for tunneling (I don't think I am) isn't really a town thing to post. To me, it screams "look at all these other people they are doing something just as bad." I don't think tunneling is necessarily scum-indicative. But these 2 players are the only players you've said anything about all game. I practically challenge you to give a read on anybody else and you just can't. You're so sure of TW and NU that you're going to stick to them non stop....and I don't buy it as a town trait. I think you are a scum player who is going to stick to those reads come hell or high water. I mean look at your above post. "I think we can all agree TW is mafia: why? That's all you are going to offer here? And you're basically saying NU is scum because he gave some shoddy answers....but I don't see how that makes you lock in on scum so hard here. I don't see it. How are you so sure. No I think it's much more likely you are scum. | ||
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I think the people voting yesterday are highly suspect. CR/Cakepike/H1D are all at the top of my suspicions. Voting yesterday was an anti-town play almost any way you look at it, in my opinion | ||
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On December 09 2016 19:06 Chairman Ray wrote: ExO, would you mind taking a look at my case on NU: For starters: On December 07 2016 07:47 Chairman Ray wrote: I'd lynch either Tumblewood or NeverUnlucky. Both of them posted a bunch of game math yesterday, with the mistake of assuming everything goes well for town, even going as far as avoiding the scenario where either the cop or medic dies. A town looking at game math usually thinks about worst case scenarios and how to avoid them, whereas scum try to convince town of the best case scenarios happening. Neither of them even mentioned the possibility of cop or medic dying, probably because Koshi was a respect kill and not a blue snipe. Isn't exactly a neutral entrance. You may have asked each of them what they thought, after your very first move in the game is to say you want to lynch both of them. However NU's filter does kinda look bad as I read it. It's really wishy washy all over the place. It makes it difficult for me, because I really don't like the way you've played CR and my immediate reaction to that has been to assume your scum. So let me ask you CR, assume for a second that TW is town, and NU is scum. Who would the 2nd scum be with NU? | ||
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On December 09 2016 19:40 cakepie wrote: (Not sure where you got the idea that I'm female, I'm not.) Outstanding things you haven't responded to me or elaborated about:
Maybe this time I'll finally get those answers and elaboration from you, now that I've gone and collated the questions for you in one spot? --- Easy for you to say this, very hard for me to see your progression and reasons. Can you filter TW for me and tell me which posts are scummy/towny to and why. Didn't I just play a game with you? I must be confusing you with someone else, don't know who. #98: I don't remember. It's what I thought skimming the thread at the time. I don't see why you are so concerned with that particular read considering all of the new information and posts we've had since then. I got a town impression of him, not based off some super analysis but based purely off how I felt at the time. #107 You are misconstruing what happened here. If I recall correctly in touhou mafia (assuming I haven't confused you with someone else) I thought you played well and your opening here reminded me of it. So when you started posting a scum case on TW, I looked at it and started to think that yeah TW looks scummy. But I was worried that my impression of your gameplay in touhou mafia was affecting my ability to assess if TW was scummy on my own. #161 I didn't have any major points I disagreed with. Mainly, my impression of TW was scummy and I wanted to say I agreed that he was scummy. I wasn't putting much effort in the game because I was tired after getting home from work. Your turn: Why would you push so hard for a lynch on mylo, instead of waiting one more day? Its inherently anti-town, and incredibly high risk Why would the reasons I disagreed with your case on TW be super important? I find it odd that you'd care more about the reasons for disagreeing with you than the reasons why I would think TW is scum. | ||
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On December 09 2016 19:52 cakepie wrote: I'm witholding information that is useful to scum. I'm asking you for information that is not useful to scum. Difference! Let's say I accept you've been operating on stream-of-consciousness mode. Fine. The problem I'm having with that is that while you go down the list of posts and toss out whatever comes to mind, you're not stopping to elaborate, and you've also missed questions that were embedded in posts. I don't know if you missed them if you're just focused on posting your brief impressions, or if you're deliberately dodging or ignoring. That's what rubs me the wrong way. Seems like a convoluted way to say "I like your case, cakepie, and I trust you and want to try to contribute more to a TW scum case." Again, I don't find you picking at parts of my case and saying what you agree/disagree with. I don't like your case. Are either of you reading the same TW I am? This reads so much more like a cornered townie who is trying his damnedest to prove he is town only to get constantly told everything he does is scummy. Unless TW is some kind of super player who I don't know about then I find it highly unlikely that he's able to just pull out this level of effort. | ||
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On December 09 2016 19:52 cakepie wrote: I'm witholding information that is useful to scum. I'm asking you for information that is not useful to scum. Difference! What information could you be withholding that is useful to scum? What kind of information could that possibly be? Everything I can think of would be better discussed in town, except if you are the cop. And this should be obvious but the only reason cops information shouldn't be public yet is because we want to get another night of information in before we have to lynch. | ||
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On December 09 2016 20:05 cakepie wrote: I was the fucking host, goddammit! How inattentive can you get?! I confused you with Calix then I guess. Your names both start with Ca. Errors like this happen. You might not like it, but thats the kind of person I am. I make silly mistakes. This isn't the first time and won't be the last. | ||
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I'm off tomorrow thankfully though | ||
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Cakepie's and CR's claims are obviously bullshit. Cakepie doesn't say who he checked N0 or N1, CR checked the dead guys. Very convenient. NU looks like you are the decider here, and the only person other than TW I'm going to be concerned with. Let me know any questions you have more me, any analysis you might want, or anything you might find interesting. | ||
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On December 10 2016 19:18 Chairman Ray wrote: NeverUnlucky, I admit that some of the early game pushed I had on you were my own misjudgement. If you're town, it's vitally important that all three town vote together today. If any one of us is voting a different person, then it's either a no lynch or town gets lynched, and either way mafia wins. Please tell me your suspicions that I'm mafia, and I'll address it. But today, you absolutely need to vote TW. There's absolute no way he could be the real cop. Firstly, why on earth would cop spend half their time scumreading someone who they had a greencheck on? Near EoD1, TW said that he was so confident on cakepie and me being mafia, he didn't think he could possibly get lynched, and that's why he wasn't worried. But think about it. Look at cakepie's day 1 play and look at my day 1 play. Do you think it's at all reasonable to conclude that cakepie is mafia and I am mafia, with enough confidence that you would stake your life over it rather than claim your role? He was ready to stake his life over cakepie and me being the two mafia, yet, he didn't even push on us the entire day. That makes zero sense in every way. During the nightphase, he crumbed someone who he ended up shooting. That's exactly what mafia do when planning to fakeclaim. Now look at this recent post: Look at where he criticizes cakepie for fake claiming at the very end of the night instead of a few minutes before. Yes, that's a valid criticism, but not from TW. Look at the way TW's been playing all game long. His play has absolutely no respect to granularity whatsoever, but he notices something so subtle. That doesn't make sense coming from TW. But what does make sense is that maybe people were pushing for scum to claim at EoN, so mafia were trying to snipe the cop. Cakepie fakeclaimed way too late and they missed their chance, which is how they noticed it. Please consider this reads, because TW is mafia fakeclaiming cop, and I have to depend on every single town voting him. If you are town please keep an open mind, consider these reads. If you have any questions, let me know. There's some major problems here. He crumbs you as his night 1 check. If he's mafia as you say, he could very easily crumb somebody else he's going to kill. His crumb was very clever, its obvious to see when you're looking for it but none of us noticed it at the time. So why crumb you at the time he did? I cannot see a good reason for him to do that if he's scum (considering you aren't dead). Your argument about the votes on him might hold some weight if he ever got 3 votes at a single time (and was online to see them). But he never had more than 2 votes on him ever. And look at the way your post reads. You're not trying to convince anybody you are the actual cop. You've got no crumbs to indicate anything. Do you honestly expect me to believe you're the cop, when magically you claim to have checked both people who died? Both you and cakepie just scream scum grasping at straws right now. You want to throw as much doubt on anything and everything as you can. You're both making this long posts but are basically completely buddied. If NU or TW is scum I'm going to be blown away. Neither of you has even been willing to ever reconsider TW at any point during the game. Despite his effort, his posts count, his breadcrumbing. It's insane. You both keep coming up with these crazy associative reads and long-winded scenarios. And the most damning thing is: Why has your opinion changed on NU? You've never posted anything explaining why suddenly NU isn't scum. What happened? It's no longer valuable to stick to your 2 reads and nothing but all game? You and Cakepie are the mafia, and are going to lose this game. | ||
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On December 10 2016 10:04 Chairman Ray wrote: Still catching up on the thread, but here's a couple things I want answered: @cakepie: Why did you fakeclaim? @NeverUnlucky: At the time, 2 cops have claimed. Why were you under the suspicion that one of them might be VT, and why did you vote on TW, despite claiming the possibility that he's VT? Notice btw CR isn't posting anything like this anymore. Suddenly have no suspicions of NU? After all you did was swear up and down he's mafia all game? scum scum scum | ||
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On December 11 2016 00:09 NeverUnlucky wrote: ExO: You say you are 100% behind TW's claim. How confident in % are you in your reads of me, Ray and CP? How do you explain TW scum-reading his green-check the entirety of day 1 and making cases on 3 of the 5 other players, starting with his green-check and not doing a case on who he scum-read and ended up checking? Similarly to CP, day 1 you said that I could be scum, but never really got in detail there. I found it suspicious that you said that you wish that I were here more when I had been pretty active before that day, yet, you had never engaged me. It felt like a back-stab ie you TR me when I'm here and start discussing the possiblity of me being scum when I'm away. Why did/do you think I could be scum? Please tell me why you think CP is scum. I'm 99% confident that TW is cop, and 99% confident CR is scum. I'd say about 85% on Cakepie being scum, and about 70% sure you're town. The math isn't perfect, but it's where I'm at. Right now literally only TW/CR matters. I have no idea why TW would start off saying he thinks his green check is scum. But he did breadcrumb him as town, and he bread crumbed his next check. It doesn't make sense to me. And again Day 1 I wrote the impressions I got as I read the thread. What motivation would I have to "backstab" you as scum? I wasn't trying to push you when you were afk at all. I find it a bit odd that right now you seem to care a lot about what people thought/think about you. But that's something to consider for another time. Cakepie is trying to talk about all sorts of shit to get you off the wrong track. Right now the only 2 candidates even worth considering are CR and TW. One of them is fake claiming cop, and is mafia. We'll talk about Cakepies fake claim (which is not town motivated in the slightest) later. We should be focusing on CR/TW. Does CR's claim look convincing to you? because it doesn't to me. TW's filter length, and attempts to get people to listen convince me he isn't lying. Combined with that fact that CR/Cakepie tried to get a lynch going on a day when a lynch does not favor town, and TW's clever breadcrumbing convinces me that TW isn't the liar here. | ||
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On December 08 2016 20:39 cakepie wrote: Announcing it serves the purpose that people don't start acting all surprised and worked up when they perceive me 'suddenly' get all up in your face. Cuz, y'know, some folks can't spot hints or read between the lines. Gotta spell it all out. Not explaining it now has a town motivation of denying information to scum. I don't see a need to explain everything now and give scum time to ponder over it. Town doesn't need my full explanation today (game D1, not real time), but will have it by tomorrow (that is to say, D2.) when it matters. I really should focus on CR but I want to point this out now. Cakepie used this to claim breadcrumbing for his cop claim. But he's said that he's VT fake claiming.....so what was this post about then? Tell me which alignment would be motivated to announce that they've stopped town tunneling another player because: "Announcing it serves the purpose that people don't start acting all surprised and worked up when they perceive me 'suddenly' get all up in your face"? Which aligntment cares more about how they are perceived than about finding scum? Which alignment would want to deny information to town ? This kind of post I read as I filter dive Cake convinces me more and more that he's the 2nd scum with CR. The whole bullshit story about fake claiming cop to bait out shots at a time when scum won't even have time to react is garbage as hell. On a day when we're at lylo what kind of VT player fake claims cop? And if he was baiting out shots why didn't he IMMEDIATELY rescind? | ||
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On December 08 2016 10:56 Chairman Ray wrote: My problem was that you and TW totally flushed out the scenario where both medic and cop are alive and go uncountered, and everything else is handy dandy, while leaving a very brief mention or ignoring entirely all other scenarios. Whether or not Koshi flipped blue is not important given that mafia didn't know what he was. Given that it was Koshi dying, I would give it a higher chance that the mafia weren't trying to bluesnipe at all. He's literally saying what the scum team are thinking | ||
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ExO_
United States2316 Posts
On December 09 2016 19:04 Chairman Ray wrote: ExO, I don't think your read on me is fair, and to some extent, it's my fault for hunting scum on my own rather than being engaged with town. I think that you are town, so I will explain to you exactly what my thought process was. I really need you and all remaining town to trust me, or at least take my reads seriously, because we all need to vote together tomorrow to lynch the mafia. Where I'm at right now is that TW and NU are the mafia, you are town, cakepie is town, hopeless is town, and obviously I am town. I have mainly pushed onto TW and NU because there are only two mafia, and it's most definitely those two. I think we can all agree that TW is mafia. I pushed onto NU many times and he's given me shoddy answers the first few times, and he's literally disappeared now and hasn't responded to anything else I posted. I posted a case on him that I want him to respond to, and I want all the town to consider as well, and so far, neither has happened. Also, nobody else has given a strong case against anybody else. Do you see why I have no reason to get off of those two? I haven't pushed much on anybody else besides TW and NU, but that doesn't mean I haven't been considering or caring about them. As for you, hopeless, and cake, there's a lot I like about your play, and a lot that I don't like, but there's little that I can point to and say "hmm, this play is really advancing the scum agenda, and scum would instinctively do this". I don't post townreads or speculative posts on people because me not being able to scumread someone doesn't mean someone else can't. If someone convinces me of a better option than TW or NU, I'm willing to reconsider. I should probably be more actively engaging with people, and that's my bad. I also feel that I'm being singled out for tunneling. If you look at other people's filters, Hopeless has been tunneling only on TW, cakepie has mostly been on TW and you, and you haven't been aggressive enough to even be considered for tunneling. So besides the fact that I literally said that I'm tunneling onto TW and NU, singling me out seems a little biased. Read this post. CR is more concerned with how he is being perceived. Doesn't think the read on him is fair, thinks he is being unfairly singled out. That singled out part is the thing that really bugs me. It's like he wants me to go after the other players and just not focus on him. | ||
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ExO_
United States2316 Posts
On December 10 2016 09:54 Chairman Ray wrote: Ok, I'm the cop. Cakepie and Tumblewood are fake. I checked Koshi N0, which was why I didn't come out. I checked TW N1, and he's mafia. ##Vote: Tumblewood Catching up on the thread now. Why is he not screaming that cakepie is mafia too. If he was the cop he'd be screaming both of them are liars and are the scum team together. But he doesn't. Just TW. Why is he only caring about TW here? Does the fact that cakepie lied about being cop not matter to him? I don't believe it. I'm so certain CR is scum here. | ||
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ExO_
United States2316 Posts
On December 11 2016 05:21 cakepie wrote: After fucking up with the fakeclaim, I started doubting myself and my reads. To the point that I actually extended good faith to TW and let NU's reasoning contaminate mine and willing to go try scum reading Ray. But ExO's yelling is my wake up call. My reads are correct and my mission is to help NU untunnel Ray and lynch TW. About the only true thing you've said. Why do you believe CR's cop claim? I don't know why I'm bothering even, you and CR are scum and I get it's your job to lie and try to convince town to lynch other town. It's hard for me to not get loud and call you a liar non-stop. | ||
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ExO_
United States2316 Posts
He's not making any effort at all. This is so easy it's a joke. I'm surprised cakepie hasn't started saying things like "maybe I'm wrong, I'm doubting myself, maybe CR really is scum" because CR isn't even trying anymore. I think town has this won. CR/Cakepie scum team | ||
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ExO_
United States2316 Posts
On December 11 2016 05:26 NeverUnlucky wrote: It's not because the read is about me that I'm asking for the 'why'. It's because you threw out a 'possible' mafia read in the thread and left it there with no explanation and never referred to it later. Idc how others have been perceiving me re: I didn't even respond to Ray's/H1's cases/reasons as to why they thought I was scum. It's just not right for you nor CP to call me scum with nothing to show for. But you're dodging the question re: Why did/do you think I could be scum? Because I don't have perfect information, and because I have a history in mafia games of completely misreading people. Look at touhou mafia I was sure that Skynx couldn't be scum and he was. I don't think you are scum, but it's not impossible. The longer this thread goes on the less and less I think you are scum but I cannot know for sure | ||
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ExO_
United States2316 Posts
On December 11 2016 05:28 cakepie wrote: NU. Remember these weird things we both noticed? - TW goes from mylo to a plan for D3 - ExO "unwillingly" tries to make a scumread on TW, but couches it in language that blames me Can you make a single case on TW that doesn't rely on association? And I never blamed you, I said I was doubting my read because I was trusting yours too much (because I Thought you were Calix from the last mafia game) | ||
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ExO_
United States2316 Posts
On December 11 2016 05:31 NeverUnlucky wrote: wtf that's the definition of an empty read It's not an empty read, its the opposite of my actual read. I think you are town, but you're asking me why I think you're scum. If I wasn't so sure that CR/Cakepie are the scum team I'd be pretty wtf about why you are even asking about this right now. | ||
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ExO_
United States2316 Posts
On December 11 2016 05:30 cakepie wrote: ExO has been dodging questions all game long. - Why is TW town in #98 - Why he doesn't think TW buddied NU - etc etc. in my case which I hope you've read. He's still dodging. What does this have to do with CR being cop? only TW or CR is dying today, thats the only possibility. There's no way any reasonable person will believe the low effort CR is the real cop over TW here. TW hasn't played perfectly but nobody ever does. I'll take his posts and his effort over CR's trash any day | ||
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ExO_
United States2316 Posts
On December 11 2016 05:34 cakepie wrote: Sure. The earliest one is still - TW goes from mylo to a plan for D3 Scumslip. Trying to fake activity by discussing plan together with NU. Goes into blind enumeration mode. Forgets about mylo which he obviously knows. Trying to fake activity? TW has a SIX page filter, CR has two. And how is going from mylo to a plan for D3 (which I'm not sure this is what happened, but for the sake of refuting your argument lets say it did) confirming him as scum? And more importantly: What has CR done to make you believe his cop claim? | ||
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ExO_
United States2316 Posts
I'm going to go ahead and do this, I don't see any more reason to wait. If you have a reason why we shouldn't vote already let me know soon NU, before I go play more PoE or dota. | ||
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ExO_
United States2316 Posts
I know you cannot know for sure that I am town NU, though I would hope I've proven myself by now. But the fact that you aren't immediately hammering, and CP isn't hammering confirms to me CR is scum without a shadow of a doubt. I'm no longer 99% sure, I'm 100% sure CR is scum | ||
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ExO_
United States2316 Posts
On December 11 2016 05:52 cakepie wrote: Unless, of course, TW and ExO are scum. Duh. I think turning this into a 2v2 was a mistake. CR is so clearly scum, and you're going down with him. I guess the play tonight will be to kill me then try to convince NU of something? If NU is the scum team with CR, NU played a fucking great game. I cannot see this being the scenario I will be blown away if its not CP/CR. | ||
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ExO_
United States2316 Posts
On December 11 2016 06:03 cakepie wrote: Cakepie options. Convince NU that: ExO is scum individually cake is town Ray is town feel free to cross out any others. I'd like you to convince me how Ray is town. It's impossible, he's scummy as hell, but I'd like to hear how you're going to justify your scum buddy as town. | ||
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ExO_
United States2316 Posts
No. You're scum, and you're cornered, and you know it. You'd really like it if I just stopped talking but I'm not going to. | ||
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ExO_
United States2316 Posts
On December 11 2016 06:12 NeverUnlucky wrote: ? Your prime goal right now is to convince me that TW is scum and Ray's town. Idc about ExO nor you for today, neither of you are today's lynch. The lynch is always between TW and CRay if that wasn't obvious. If mafia kill you over TW tomorrow night, they are fucking retarded and they lose the game because Ray's lynch confirms TW as cop, and his presence in lylo guarantees a town win. Oh yeah. Sorry I think this is the first TL mafia game as VT that I'm going to win where I felt like I played a decent role in helping town win and I can just see me getting killed before we can actually see the victory screen | ||
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ExO_
United States2316 Posts
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ExO_
United States2316 Posts
On December 11 2016 13:52 cakepie wrote: Fuck you, you can go ahead and hammer now. Don't waste my time. tilted scum | ||
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ExO_
United States2316 Posts
On December 11 2016 13:56 NeverUnlucky wrote: ???? You've just taken an hour of my time and made me miss my movie for this? To tell me that I don't know how to play and to tell me "Fuck you"? I'm shocked and utterly pissed. I want to hammer you now, not Ray. Fuck you. It has to be Ray, ray before anything else. | ||
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ExO_
United States2316 Posts
On December 11 2016 16:48 Tumblewood wrote: the worst part about it all is I can't gloat yet this kind of talk really unsettles me | ||
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ExO_
United States2316 Posts
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ExO_
United States2316 Posts
NU the game is in your hands. These posts from CP/CR are big, but they are full of garbage. Lines like this from CR: "ExO is seriously considering that you might be mafia, because of a case I presented." should tell you everything you need to know. ofc I was considering you were mafia. I have to consider every possibility, in particular that my reads might be wrong. No where in CR's posts does he explain why if he was the cop does he only have 2 pages in his filter. Why he strictly tunneled you and TW the entire game. Why he didn't breadcrumb at all. Why both he and cakepie tried to start a a train on Day 1, when it's clearly an incredible risk to do so instead of just waiting a day. Compare TWs effort all game long, despite constantly being pressured. His posts all game long. He has at least been trying all game long. CR only shows up now. Is that what a cop would do? Post barely anything and tunnel 2 players all game long? Don't fall for this last ditch effort by CP/CR NU. | ||
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ExO_
United States2316 Posts
NU don't fall for it. Read CP's posts. They aren't logical or analytical. Look at how the game played out. CR is a fake claiming cop. CP has done all of the fighting for CR here. Look at what CP and CR tried to do on day 1 witht the votes. Look at CR's tunneling and non effort vs TWs effort. Make the right choice | ||
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ExO_
United States2316 Posts
On December 12 2016 04:40 Chairman Ray wrote: NU, i know theres a lot to go through and not a lot of time, but give it ur best shot. The fact that cakepie made all these great cases shows that he's looking very careful into the game, and is also trying to convince other town to get on board. Exo and TW are not reading into anything and just plainly being around. They're not posting analytical cases and trying to convince others, well except that TW posted a pretty good case on why his greencheck was mafia. These facts should tell you whos the real town and whos the real mafia. If you have any questions for me, let me know. They aren't great cases. He's quoting a lot of shit and saying "this makes you mafia, and this makes me town. It's not actual analysis, its pure volume of posts. You know what's a great case though? You and CP tried to lynch a player, on a day when it goes against town's interest to lynch a player. You have bread crumbed nothing. You did nothing but push 2 people all game long. You did nothing to solve the game, even though you claim you are the cop. You 2 are putting forth one hell of a last ditch scum effort. But I'm VT and I've seen through this. And I'm confident that NU will as well. | ||
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ExO_
United States2316 Posts
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ExO_
United States2316 Posts
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ExO_
United States2316 Posts
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ExO_
United States2316 Posts
On December 12 2016 05:00 Chairman Ray wrote: I answered your question earier about why i checked koshi. Im on my phone so cant go back and quote. But let me ask you this, do you think it's reasonable for the real cop to get a greencheck, and then spend a lot of effort scumreading them the following day? He Breadcrumbed him as town. Where are your breadcrumbs? Where have you been? Did you roll cop and just decide to say "fuck town I'm only tunneling TW/NU all game" I don't believe there's any way in hell that's true | ||
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ExO_
United States2316 Posts
On December 12 2016 05:04 cakepie wrote: thank you for hearing me out. Because you were tunneled against him. If you haven't untunneled him yet, there is still danger of you picking the easy scum explanation. Needed me to help you untunnel first. Just as I posted before EoN to helped him untunnel you so that he could consider tw+Exo Because TW's crumbs are faked. You guys love crumbs. You don't even evaluate that they may be faked. I can show you how the crumbs are designed to cover different scenarios. NU -> CR null NU TW -> CR null TW Because CR's case is almost all bad. ExO -> cakepie mafia ExO TW -> cakepie mafia TW Because - they use the explanation that I'm scum vs shitty parts of the case. (this is why I deliberately include shitty parts in my cases) - for the good/solid parts of the case, they go "oops, my mistake!" when scumslipped. They insist they are town who honestly made a mistake. Even if it is really bloody weird for town to make the mistake. Like TW going from mylo to D3. That's why I kept trying to remind you of it. It's really implausible for town to do this. Re:546 Cake --> ExO mafia Cakepie This is literally what all of your posts are like. You aren't adding analysis just doing garbage like this. | ||
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ExO_
United States2316 Posts
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ExO_
United States2316 Posts
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ExO_
United States2316 Posts
Holy fucking shit, cakepie you idiot | ||
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ExO_
United States2316 Posts
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ExO_
United States2316 Posts
On December 12 2016 05:12 cakepie wrote: It's game over anyway | ||
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ExO_
United States2316 Posts
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ExO_
United States2316 Posts
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ExO_
United States2316 Posts
On December 12 2016 05:19 Chairman Ray wrote: Im really sorry cakepie if it looked like we we dragged the game way too long. We had good reason to. I know you committed to this game really hard, and sry for making you lose a lot of sleep and get sick. You played a hell of a game Cakepie shit the bed really hard. As VT he got locked in on you being the real cop based on nothing. I'm blown away that he never even considered TW was telling the truth with the mountain of evidence that you were scum. | ||
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ExO_
United States2316 Posts
Cakepie is really the scum MVP here | ||
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ExO_
United States2316 Posts
On December 12 2016 05:30 Artanis[Xp] wrote: There is a time where you respect the immense amount of time and effort someone put in the game and don't bash them for being wrong when that has already been made clear. That time would be now. I don't think I'm being too harsh. Plus I'm salty about the ending. How can I not be after that ending? But w/e. gg well played scum | ||
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ExO_
United States2316 Posts
On December 12 2016 05:34 cakepie wrote: Accepted. Holy shit NU great job. Time to sleep. Man you've gotta explain to me wtf happened there. How'd you get so locked in, why the super late fake claim. Those massive wall posts. I'm so blown away right now that you aren't scum after that | ||
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ExO_
United States2316 Posts
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ExO_
United States2316 Posts
I was really looking forward to choosing between NU/CP but I would almost certainly have voted out CP. Im stilll super salty :/ | ||
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ExO_
United States2316 Posts
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ExO_
United States2316 Posts
On December 12 2016 07:28 Chairman Ray wrote: i looked into h1s filter and saw some of the cop crumbs that cakepie analyzed, and so did NU. Well played by h1. Can't believe you went and dug up my TLPD with my horrible record  , or that you even knew that was me | ||
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ExO_
United States2316 Posts
I don't give you points for "effort" when all the effort was completely in the wrong place. Especially after talking all that shit about the old guard and how good your methods are, and how wrong you were for so long. You let scum CR talk you into scum reading TW, and never questioned your own read but went deeper and deeper into the tunnel. How tinfoil do you have to be, to believe CR's cop claim, while simultaneously believing TW faked breadcrumbs, and posted 2.5x as much as CR. That's why I was so sure you were the scum at the end of the game, I didn't see how you could possibly be townie. You did CR's job for him, after doing a highly questionable fake claim. I don't mean to harp on you the game is over its whatever now. But I really don't think you have any place to be criticizing anybody else's gameplay | ||
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ExO_
United States2316 Posts
But for me this is just a game. I wouldn't want this to affect your personal life. So please cheer up, I'll try to be a bit more careful with my words | ||
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ExO_
United States2316 Posts
Again I didn't mean to cause you any IRL distress. I'm apologize if my words affected you in that way | ||
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ExO_
United States2316 Posts
"And more importantly, his teammate knows so too. It is very uncommon for a scum to go 100% all-in hard defense on his scumbuddy, because unlike townies: they know they are wrong, and they also know that if their defense fails, and the flip happens, they will look completely awful" It's that there was only 1 day. Looking awful doesn't matter if you win immediately. and iirc I also found it odd that NU was super concerned with what I thought about him, instead of killing the scum. On December 11 2016 04:59 ExO_ wrote: And again Day 1 I wrote the impressions I got as I read the thread. What motivation would I have to "backstab" you as scum? I wasn't trying to push you when you were afk at all. I find it a bit odd that right now you seem to care a lot about what people thought/think about you. But that's something to consider for another time. What mattered that day though was killing the fake claim. And I think despite everything the case on CR was very clear. TW had breadcrumbs, higher effort and post count. CR was afk no breadcrumbs and not even defending. I honestly don't know what I could've done to convince cakepie. He saw the same things I did, but he was in a tunnel that I don't think I could've found a way to pull him out of. | ||
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