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The case on cakepie
Preamble
After this post I will take a short break, both to eat food and to keep myself from going insane writing cases. I fear that already my mindset of avoiding bias is slipping. After the break I'll resume with ExO.
The case for
- I have to give him some credit, at least, for working his ass off for town. He's put an unlikely amount of effort into this game for someone just faking it.
- He tries to gain perspective on things he doesn't understand + Show Spoiler [for instance here] +
On December 07 2016 16:56 cakepie wrote:Show nested quote +On December 07 2016 16:34 ExO_ wrote:
Just sat down and actually read TW's plan before, I kinda didn't pay much attention to it at first. It's actually dogshit assuming cop and doc are going to make it through to d2 with everythink hunky dory, so much to the point that I have a hard time thinking he meant it to be taken seriously. This is snark. This might be half in jest This exhaustively enumerates N0 thru up to D3 and lists what he sees as all three possible scenarios at D3. That's too much effort for simply joking or trolling.
- Enforces town + Show Spoiler [like here] +
On December 08 2016 03:46 cakepie wrote:
Like wtf H1, at least try. Maybe we've exhausted the available material on TW, but tell me something about NU or ExO or CRay.
The case against
- From his first posts concerning me, cakepie is concerned with indicting me + Show Spoiler [on the grounds of enjoying non-blue-fo…] +
On December 06 2016 17:00 cakepie wrote:Show nested quote +I'd rather play a solid game with real reads and such. blue roles are boring What a convenient thing to say now.
- Continuing, he explains how all of my actions were deliberate attempts to mislead and misinform the town. How on Earth do you reach the conclusion that my plan, quoted here, uses devices and rhetoric subversively when obviously the mistake wasn't even intentional? Cakepie overall spends several posts selling my mistakes, contained in obviously low-effort posts (as in, spending little time typing them, not thinking about them) as intentional. Keen to assume mistakes as intentional is always scummy; town isn't looking to paint others as scum without being totally convinced themselves... and also having decent reasons.
- Chairman Ray posts with similarly poor logic, and cakepie responds + Show Spoiler [in this quote] +
On December 08 2016 13:10 cakepie wrote:Show nested quote +On December 08 2016 11:46 Chairman Ray wrote:
In my experiences, mafia tend to buddy up more when they're the most active ones, and draw distance when town are the most active ones. If the two mafia were the active ones in the middle of a quiet town, I could totally see them patting each other on the back for being active. Isn't that a bit circular and self-reinforcing? 1. Active players seem to buddy in quiet N0 -> 2. mafia together? -> 3. oh look mafia buddying in quiet town -> 4. go back to step 2 Furthermore, I think it looks more like only one (TW) is actively buddying. I think NU might already started smelling a rat and was questioning why/how TW formed that absurd TW/NU/Koshi circle: Show nested quote +On December 07 2016 15:48 cakepie wrote:I mindmeld NU on TW seeming to buddy toward end of N0, and I like his questions #71 #73 #74. I believe that NU could be genuinely (if naively) broaching the possibility of "If VTs agree never to fakeclaim, all CCs become MvT". TW jumps at the opportunity to gain easy towncred by enumerating possible scenarios according to mechanics, and to engage NU to try to start a buddybuddy going jerking over setup. TW's scumbuddy is somewhere else, and I think they could be tentatively drawing distance at that point in time, with town?NU active, soondead!Koshi and uncertainty over how active the rest of us would behave. If you're going down the road of associative reads I think there's more interesting interactions than just backpatting.
- Although he accuses me of trying to mislead NU rather than himself, cakepie plays to NU even more + Show Spoiler [here] +
Could he be trying to establish a bond with you as far back as #44/45, eventually leading up to #72+?
Did scum!bleweed take advantage of the opportunity you presented to earn easy towncred by talking setup and scenarios?
Verdict
Scum. Yeah, I don't like to speak in absolutes, but I fail to find any explanation for how cakepie is town. He reacts in different ways to the same tells from different players and above all speaks to why I am scum with evidence that should lead no reasonable person to his conclusions. Trying to find the townie in him, I felt like I was grasping for anything to explain it. If not scum then cakepie is one of the most misled townies I have ever seen, even ahead of Rels that one time.
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On December 09 2016 10:33 Chairman Ray wrote:TW, one thing you keep doing when people push on you is to say that what you did was not indicative of alignment. The whole point of pushing on you is to get your side of the story before making a judgement. Everything that was said in this game is not completely alignment indicative, including all your scumreads. But instead of actually explaining your actions from your perspective, you just say that town could have totally said the same thing. That's the exact sort of defense that mafia gives if they didn't have any honest town intentions, but tries to argue that they could exist. Here's a couple examples: Show nested quote +On December 08 2016 15:24 Tumblewood wrote:gotta check cakepie's meta to see if being an asshat is his normal meta + Show Spoiler +inb4 this is also a subversive, manipulative trick designed intentionally to buddy NU and mislead town I don't know if you think you're spotting my mafia tricks or some shit but actually you're finding evidence where there is none. literally things that could go either way and you are construing them toward I am scum without hesitation Show nested quote +On December 09 2016 10:05 Tumblewood wrote:The case against[list] [*]From his first posts concerning me, cakepie is concerned with indicting me + Show Spoiler [on the grounds of enjoying non-blue-fo…] +On December 06 2016 17:00 cakepie wrote:Show nested quote +I'd rather play a solid game with real reads and such. blue roles are boring What a convenient thing to say now. . No 1der + Show Spoiler [ayy] + he accuses me of being scum if all of my actions are twisted to the most scum-leaning possibility. [*]Continuing, he explains how all of my actions were deliberate attempts to mislead and misinform the town. How on Earth do you reach the conclusion that my plan, quoted here, uses devices and rhetoric subversively when obviously the mistake wasn't even intentional? Cakepie overall spends several posts selling my mistakes, contained in obviously low-effort posts (as in, spending little time typing them, not thinking about them) as intentional. Keen to assume mistakes as intentional is always scummy; town isn't looking to paint others as scum without being totally convinced themselves... and also having decent reasons.Rels that one time. You also did the same thing when I pushed onto NU, defending him by saying that his actions could have been either town or mafia. What was your rationale for these defenses, or would you like to argue that town could have totally defended themselves like this too?
I'm trying to avoid this because I recognize people are scrubs have different opinions on what is a good tell, but I feel that I have to point out when people use reasons that don't actually tell us anything useful to support their argument.
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gah I remember why I don't do this
why the hell would I write 3 more extensive cases
*sigh* I'll do one more and then do rl work
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The case on ExO_
Preamble
This is all I will be able to manage tonight without killing myself. I should have gotten to Ray before, mostly to sort out my own thoughts on him.
The case for
- He isn't afraid to admit when+ Show Spoiler [at the start of the game] +
On December 07 2016 15:15 ExO_ wrote:
Kinda null on cakepie. idk its really hard to read anybody with so few posts
- Although surely it's been done before, scum rarely make mistakes + Show Spoiler [like this one] +
On December 07 2016 16:37 ExO_ wrote:
Actually I just realized I misread TWs posts he never says rewarding town. I'm starting to think I'm going a bit crazy
- *bias creeping in help* The analysis in this post is spot on. I have to say I am influenced by the fact that I agree with it, but it shows ExO is thinking rationally and critically.
The case against
- 12 hours before deadline, ExO just disappeared. Players of both alignments go AFK, but it is more like scum to avoid drawing attention to themselves around deadline.
- It does raise some red flags that ExO would make several mistakes (setup, other setup, reading comprehension) in one game. If mafia did try to use this as a strategy, it is likely they'd do it several times.
Verdict
Town. ExO has provided good analysis consistently and has hardly done anything to give me suspicion. One thing to watch out for, though, is a dropoff after D1 if it seems like he can coast through the game.
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haven't read since last night but I didn't get a pm saying I was dead so I have some important news...
I'm cop you idiot
1der is town dead
ray is mafia
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i have crumbs in my analyses of 1der and cakepie. on mobile and in no mood to deal with the quotes but look at the capital letters and numbers. in 1der's analysis the caps read "N0 TOWN" and in cakepie's it says "N1 CHECK" and then the next sentence starts with "Chairman Ray"
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cakepie is also confirmed scum for fakeclaiming
the game is solved, for me
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so I am done trying to figure out everything but I will answer any questions you have. I am remarkably free this weekend
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I didn't claim because I had confidence that both of the people voting me were mafia, and there would be at least two townies who were skeptical. and they were. so now we have both scum confirmed instead of just one.
also please don't vote me. as soon as both scum are online they can snap-vote me and end the game right there.
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I made posts like "blue roles are boring" and "cop should do this" so I could avoid getting blue sniped. it would be obvious if I avoided it altogether or acted all 'asking for a friend'
I will try to point out crumbs on my phone but it will be easier when I get home to a computer
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On December 10 2016 09:01 NeverUnlucky wrote:
like, I don't see why cakepie would have fake-claimed cop at this point in time: he was in a good position in terms of being TR'd and was arguably the most influential player in the game. He could've easily diverted any lynch to the target of his choice, so long he convinces 1 town. It doesn't make sense for him to do so.
TW is in the top of most people's scum-reads so it makes perfect sense for him to all-in and hope he gets a ML / trades 1 for 1 with the cop and gets his partner to clean up in mylo
he wanted to seem proactive rather than reactive. if you or ExO were cop you could have checked me and they would have had to backpedal and attack someone else who was more townread
we're already in MyLo so 1-for-1s don't exist. if the next two lynches are not scum - that is, are not cakepie and ray - town loses
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and by please don't vote me I mean unvote immediately do you want to lose the game
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On December 10 2016 09:07 NeverUnlucky wrote:Show nested quote +On December 10 2016 09:02 Tumblewood wrote:
I didn't claim because I had confidence that both of the people voting me were mafia, and there would be at least two townies who were skeptical. and they were. so now we have both scum confirmed instead of just one.
also please don't vote me. as soon as both scum are online they can snap-vote me and end the game right there. Okay, but where are your so-called crumbs? I've checked your filter and found NOTHING of that matter. You complained about blue roles a couple of times and were scum-reading H1 the whole fucking time, you even had him as top lynch at some point. This makes no sense from a cop who has a green check on h1's perspective. I'm not unvoting you until you can convince me that you are the real cop, if the two scum hammer you and u flip VT it's your own fault for fake-claiming as VT. Besides if you're town, cakepie is scum and he is sleeping atm.
I am not VT. let me make this clear
I am finding crumbs as we speak. give me 15 minutes to get them
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[QUOTE]On December 09 2016 10:05 Tumblewood wrote:
The case on cakepie
... other stuff ...
The case against
- From his first posts concerning me, cakepie is concerned with indicting me + Show Spoiler [on the grounds of enjoying non-blue-fo…] +
On December 06 2016 17:00 cakepie wrote:Show nested quote +I'd rather play a solid game with real reads and such. blue roles are boring What a convenient thing to say now.
- Continuing, he explains how all of my actions were deliberate attempts to mislead and misinform the town. How on Earth do you reach the conclusion that my plan, quoted here, uses devices and rhetoric subversively when obviously the mistake wasn't even intentional? Cakepie overall spends several posts selling my mistakes, contained in obviously low-effort posts (as in, spending little time typing them, not thinking about them) as intentional. Keen to assume mistakes as intentional is always scummy; town isn't looking to paint others as scum without being totally convinced themselves... and also having decent reasons.
- Chairman Ray posts with similarly poor logic, and cakepie responds + Show Spoiler [in this quote] +
On December 08 2016 13:10 cakepie wrote:Show nested quote +On December 08 2016 11:46 Chairman Ray wrote:
In my experiences, mafia tend to buddy up more when they're the most active ones, and draw distance when town are the most active ones. If the two mafia were the active ones in the middle of a quiet town, I could totally see them patting each other on the back for being active. Isn't that a bit circular and self-reinforcing? 1. Active players seem to buddy in quiet N0 -> 2. mafia together? -> 3. oh look mafia buddying in quiet town -> 4. go back to step 2 Furthermore, I think it looks more like only one (TW) is actively buddying. I think NU might already started smelling a rat and was questioning why/how TW formed that absurd TW/NU/Koshi circle: Show nested quote +On December 07 2016 15:48 cakepie wrote:I mindmeld NU on TW seeming to buddy toward end of N0, and I like his questions #71 #73 #74. I believe that NU could be genuinely (if naively) broaching the possibility of "If VTs agree never to fakeclaim, all CCs become MvT". TW jumps at the opportunity to gain easy towncred by enumerating possible scenarios according to mechanics, and to engage NU to try to start a buddybuddy going jerking over setup. TW's scumbuddy is somewhere else, and I think they could be tentatively drawing distance at that point in time, with town?NU active, soondead!Koshi and uncertainty over how active the rest of us would behave. If you're going down the road of associative reads I think there's more interesting interactions than just backpatting.
- Although he accuses me of trying to mislead NU rather than himself, cakepie plays to NU even more + Show Spoiler [here] +
Could he be trying to establish a bond with you as far back as #44/45, eventually leading up to #72+?
Did scum!bleweed take advantage of the opportunity you presented to earn easy towncred by talking setup and scenarios?
... other stuff ...
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On December 09 2016 09:22 Tumblewood wrote:The case on Hopeless1der... The case against- N0 he made one post and left. The post + Show Spoiler [in question] +
On December 07 2016 00:21 Hopeless1der wrote:
Why are there suggestions for the cop to claim during D1? Why not end of N1 when theres a chance at 2 checks?
- Next day he initiated wanting to lynch me, but he didn't present any reasons of his own; he sheeped cakepie + Show Spoiler +
On December 08 2016 03:27 Hopeless1der wrote:
cakepie is it okay if I just sheep you today?
- 1der puts full trust into cakepie as town without ever discussing why (this is the first comment on cakepie's alignment [redacted]). Town-tunneling is a real phenomenon, but it makes me uncomfortable; it feels more like he is hiding behind someone he can safely call town.
- 1der asks me to pick between two non-contradictory statements I made and attacks me for choosing both, but fails to read and comprehend my words. It comes off as an attempt to get me lynched more than to get it right. By requiring one of two binary answers, provided by himself, he forced words into my mouth (and still, somehow, did not learn to read).
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so that's where I crumbed my checks
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thank you
you have to bold your votes and unvoted for them to count though
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we have 48 hours (well, 46 now) to discuss. if you really think I'm scum, vote me toward the end of that 48 hours in case you change your mind
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On December 10 2016 09:24 NeverUnlucky wrote:Show nested quote +On December 10 2016 09:21 Tumblewood wrote:
we have 48 hours (well, 46 now) to discuss. if you really think I'm scum, vote me toward the end of that 48 hours in case you change your mind Outline to me why cakepie is mafia. No big post, just bullet points.
- interpreted my posts, mostly early game, to illustrate a picture in which I am mafia using subversive tactics to mislead town, but all of the interpretations require huge leaps of faith (shows that he is more concerned with lynching me than lynching the right person as determined via reason)
- presented with similar mistakes from me and ray, he slammed me and merely explained to ray his mistake (does not treat similar situations consistently; consider that I have a red check on ray)
- fakeclaimed cop
to summarize, he is aggressively pushing lynches (specifically a lynch on me) in nearly all of his posts but does not show that he is carefully reasoning to make those. really a case of "there is no way someone sees these posts and draws that conclusion unless they are looking for a justification for a lynch"
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EPT
