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In fact, scum dying Day 1 is extremely informative. It basically tells us that the mafia have to be a bunch of passive fucktards, 100% no quibbling.
"But Calix, what if there was some WIFOM9000 bussing plan?" - No. Allow me to explain the logic:
- Scum rarely die on Day 1.
- Scum do not want to bus their partners on Day 1 because they lose numbers and give town a shitton of information and the only advantage they get is "muh town cred" which means jack shit because they still have to survive for an extra day and town cred doesn't save you in LYLO.
- Scum with strong thread presence do not lose their partners on Day 1 because they can divert the lynch onto a townie.
- If a scum player dies on Day 1, then the scum cannot have a strong thread presence because otherwise the lynch would have not hit scum.
- Therefore the scum must be among the passive lurkers.
Like this is fucking airtight logic.
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imma look at the votes in more detail tomorrow evening. First, what do people think of Superbia's insistence on voting for Scott? I'm not sure how to interpret that myself - he had to know that Scott was extremely unlikely to be lynched.
But I kind of like it because he didn't just pile onto the Lunatic bandwagon to get cheap town points.
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On September 26 2016 07:24 Jealous wrote:Show nested quote +On September 26 2016 07:17 Calix wrote:On September 26 2016 04:18 scott31337 wrote:
Allright, so I even asked Luna who he wanted to lynch and didn't even say. He had two wordy posts that didn't have any content. There's a couple other people trying to push other lynches now too - so I feel more confident voting for him. On September 26 2016 04:18 DoYouHas wrote:
##Vote: Luna
Kind of a shame, in my head he was going to come back strong today and I was going to be able to make a case for Dane over him. But every hour that goes by without him contributing makes it more and more likely he flips scum. ^^^^worst votes 2k16 DYH is textbook bussing. The weird-ass sympathy nails it for me. Scott's awkward read-hopping looks even worse given that he was low-key defending Lunatic (nobody's contesting his wagon post) before he voted him for some lukewarm reasoning. Stutters was a "voting so I don't forget" vote and ptmc voted near the very end so that looks like a "vote because it's mandatory" deal, Jealous voted because he agreed with my "Lunatic is more anti-town than the other wagons" argument. Xatalos/ SEQ voted early on so they are extremely unlikely to be scum for that. Could have easily tried to have made a push on one of the other wagons given that both have some thread presence. Nice finds. I am inclined to agree on at least DYH, whereas with Scott I'm not 100% sure but that last sentence is pretty damning. Why would it have been UNSAFE to vote Lunatic? It's not like TL threads close once 50% majority is reached or something. Would be worthwhile to check out the validity of his claim that there were a decent number of votes going elsewhere at the time. Can someone on PC do this for me please? ^^ I agree with most of your other VCA. For Stutters, it's worth mentioning (and please correct me if I'm wrong because I'm working off memory) that it was between him and Luna in terms of who was being pressured so the Luna vote would have been the most sensible from a defensive standpoint as well.
A quick look at the voting thread tells me that Lunatic was the leading wagon for all of EOD (tells me that he became the leading wagon 6 hours ago and Scott voted 3 hours ago)
Reminds me of those people who claim to scum-read someone but don't vote for some convoluted reason like "I won't vote on principle" or something. (poorly-explained but it's like a rationalisation for bad logic)
Wait, wasn't that you who said "the lynch is between Stutters and Lunatic"? Checked his filter and Stutters didn't say much about Lunatic so you have attributed your point to the wrong person, lol.
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On September 26 2016 07:37 Jealous wrote:Show nested quote +On September 26 2016 07:33 Calix wrote:On September 26 2016 07:24 Jealous wrote:On September 26 2016 07:17 Calix wrote:On September 26 2016 04:18 scott31337 wrote:
Allright, so I even asked Luna who he wanted to lynch and didn't even say. He had two wordy posts that didn't have any content. There's a couple other people trying to push other lynches now too - so I feel more confident voting for him. On September 26 2016 04:18 DoYouHas wrote:
##Vote: Luna
Kind of a shame, in my head he was going to come back strong today and I was going to be able to make a case for Dane over him. But every hour that goes by without him contributing makes it more and more likely he flips scum. ^^^^worst votes 2k16 DYH is textbook bussing. The weird-ass sympathy nails it for me. Scott's awkward read-hopping looks even worse given that he was low-key defending Lunatic (nobody's contesting his wagon post) before he voted him for some lukewarm reasoning. Stutters was a "voting so I don't forget" vote and ptmc voted near the very end so that looks like a "vote because it's mandatory" deal, Jealous voted because he agreed with my "Lunatic is more anti-town than the other wagons" argument. Xatalos/ SEQ voted early on so they are extremely unlikely to be scum for that. Could have easily tried to have made a push on one of the other wagons given that both have some thread presence. Nice finds. I am inclined to agree on at least DYH, whereas with Scott I'm not 100% sure but that last sentence is pretty damning. Why would it have been UNSAFE to vote Lunatic? It's not like TL threads close once 50% majority is reached or something. Would be worthwhile to check out the validity of his claim that there were a decent number of votes going elsewhere at the time. Can someone on PC do this for me please? ^^ I agree with most of your other VCA. For Stutters, it's worth mentioning (and please correct me if I'm wrong because I'm working off memory) that it was between him and Luna in terms of who was being pressured so the Luna vote would have been the most sensible from a defensive standpoint as well. A quick look at the voting thread tells me that Lunatic was the leading wagon for all of EOD (tells me that he became the leading wagon 6 hours ago and Scott voted 3 hours ago) Reminds me of those people who claim to scum-read someone but don't vote for some convoluted reason like "I won't vote on principle" or something. (poorly-explained but it's like a rationalisation for bad logic) Wait, wasn't that you who said "the lynch is between Stutters and Lunatic"? Checked his filter and Stutters didn't say much about Lunatic so you have attributed your point to the wrong person, lol. If it was me then that explains why I'm remembering it, but I don't think I was alone in suspecting Stutters at the time, so the point still stands. If I said it was between the two of them and he voted for him, that's still a defensive vote even if he didn't mention Lunatic directly. "Rather you than me."
This isn't applicable for reasons below but voting for survival is not alignment-indicative.
Secondly, this explanation you proposed doesn't make sense because Stutters was one of the last voters on the wagon, long after Stutters was at risk of dying.
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In case someone tries to drown it out, my reasoning in #639 is solid.
Best post in the game, hands down.
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On September 26 2016 07:21 Calix wrote:
In fact, scum dying Day 1 is extremely informative. It basically tells us that the mafia have to be a bunch of passive fucktards, 100% no quibbling.
"But Calix, what if there was some WIFOM9000 bussing plan?" - No. Allow me to explain the logic:
- Scum rarely die on Day 1.
- Scum do not want to bus their partners on Day 1 because they lose numbers and give town a shitton of information and the only advantage they get is "muh town cred" which means jack shit because they still have to survive for an extra day and town cred doesn't save you in LYLO.
- Scum with strong thread presence do not lose their partners on Day 1 because they can divert the lynch onto a townie.
- If a scum player dies on Day 1, then the scum cannot have a strong thread presence because otherwise the lynch would have not hit scum.
- Therefore the scum must be among the passive lurkers.
Like this is fucking airtight logic.
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With that, I'm going to sleep.
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Xatalos' post on Jealous was pitiful. In reference to the highlighted part in 675, only thing that stood out to me was the fact that Jealous has done the 'here's a point but it might be wrong/ describing the wrong person entirely so I'll retract it if it is' and he's been wrong on the two occasions that I can recall so they could be attempts at making points against players that he doesn't have to stick himself down on. Mind you, there's a strong possibility that Jealous is just being a lazy fuck so probably not AI. I find it a weird theme in his posts and it's definitely something he should stop doing no matter what because it's him being inattentive at best, lol.
Who cares about the Stutters town-read? I'm just ignoring whatever Lunatic said there. In fact, I don't think anything that Lunatic said holds much weight save for his Daneler scum-read and vote iirc. Everything else is WIFOM and anyone who thinks that deserves any credit is basically saying "I'm so bad at reading the players that I have to rely on shortcuts to do it"
Re: ptmc's case on 685, I don't think Stutters' Lunatic vote tells us much. It's a safe vote for sure but he could have legitimately agreed that Lunatic was scummy and there's not a lot to divine either way from Stutters himself. He doesn't talk much about Lunatic in his filter so if Stutters is scum then it's the "ignoring partners" strategy which is plausible. Only part that I see to support the scum explanation over the town one is that both of them were around at similar times and Stutters didn't talk about him much.
And on the dude ptmc himself, he goes up a notch for that monster of a post relating to Lunatic. (695) Noting this for posterity.
Starting to have wandering eyes here, zzz.
I actually like Daneler's case on 691. I don't just mean "I agree with it" (although I do) but it shows some decent analysis compared to his early game play and raises some interesting points with regards to Stutters/ SEQ. I notice that Stutters doesn't tend to respond head-on to the points against him. It's clear that he's acknowledged them but doesn't explain himself. Examples include him never responding to my initial post and I don't see him responding to Daneler either. And sure, it could be because he's a man of few words but again, it's becoming a pattern with him so it's making me suspicious.
Oh I see he's promised to make a big post about this stuff so this might become invalid.
Rels is making sensible points with his response to Skynx and his DYH case to note two examples. I like him for town.
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Oh yeah, did SEQ even post after Day 1 ended?
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Oh wait, SEQ was the person who first voted on Lunatic. Never mind, probably assuming the worst due to him not being around.
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On September 27 2016 06:06 Skynx wrote:
I'll re-read Scott now if u guys want but 7-8 pages from here he looked ok to me.
Do you have any new reads that you want to bring to the table? What's the point in spending your (limited) time on people that you think have town-tone?
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On September 27 2016 06:11 Skynx wrote:Show nested quote +On September 27 2016 06:08 Calix wrote:On September 27 2016 06:06 Skynx wrote:
I'll re-read Scott now if u guys want but 7-8 pages from here he looked ok to me. Do you have any new reads that you want to bring to the table? What's the point in spending your (limited) time on people that you think have town-tone? people like ptmc, Xata, Stutters, Jealous are all kinda in the middle with some reasons available justifying both alignments. They need proper analysis as their tone, meta, mind meld or all that kind of easy read stuff doesn't apply to them cuz they are inconsistent. So you kinda solve the easy questions first then move on to hard ones.
That's swell as a strategy and all, so let us know when you get started on the 'difficult' analysis. Easy stuff is scrub-tier.
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If you think that mafia would find it impossible to push Lunatic like SEQ did (will check in a moment) then what stops him from being in your god-tier town bracket?
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Got the quotes. What makes you think this sequence of posts are impossible for scum to replicate? I see some questions and "X thing is scummy" which is standard for pushing someone and prodding for more information.
(third quote is directed at Daneler btw)
On September 25 2016 11:56 SoulEaterQUEEN wrote:Show nested quote +On September 24 2016 16:38 Lunaticman wrote:On September 24 2016 16:18 Skynx wrote:
Hmm Lunatic intro worst i guess.
Man i dont get why get this PL discussion every game. Its quite simple, odds are town barely have any info D1 to decide on a proper lynch, hence guy with 2 posts dies. Sometimes scum slip, or someone has incredible meta read confidence or w/e, then you dont't pl. Simple stuff. Somehow I knew you would say that. I hope we can stay on friendly terms this time around but I doubt it. Stutters is so far the most obvious townie. I am a bit afraid of the logical development of this game. TL is filled with smarties that loves to talk the talk but always lynch the random dude that didnt sound smart. This will be the doom of us all I tell you, nobody can look more perfect then the mafia because they already know everything! This looks like the current meta afk townies and leading mafia for sure. This totally reminds me if the palmar/hf domination game check it out. Thanks for the read though not sure how you arrived on that conclusion on the obvious townie part of Stutters, would like some elaboration please. but the rest of the post feels like it is filled with filler. Don't get the point of it.
On September 25 2016 12:03 SoulEaterQUEEN wrote:Show nested quote +On September 24 2016 18:13 Lunaticman wrote:On September 24 2016 17:32 Calix wrote:Yo. I have a bit of time in the morning to pop in. I actually don't mind the activity as much as I usually would because the posting isn't just a bunch of useless spam and it's much easier to catch up/ reread stuff. On September 24 2016 11:46 SoulEaterQUEEN wrote:On September 24 2016 08:04 Xatalos wrote:
Unfortunately, looks like you can't vote for yourself in this setup :/ Interesting idea. What does this achieve? Last time I checked, voting for yourself is a lazy way of avoiding pressure, gives no info, doesn't get you reads. Unless you are schizo ^_^ Also hi there. I'm one of the newbs, this is my first on-site mafia, therefore I am not aware of the site meta. Also find it pointless to link off site meta examples personally. Too many players fall into the meta trap to conclude reads. Anyway this is shit fluff talking. Grill me, bake me, do whatever that makes you happy until my alignment cookie crumbles infront of you. I'll post my RVS vote, and call it a night. Just to pop in with my two cents on this matter. Meta is good for establishing what is NAI for a player. (e.g., how often they vote or if they talk in a particular way) but I agree that a lot of people, myself included at times, use it as a substitute for analysis. I'm not familiar with many people here (I've only really played with Skynx/ Superbia/ Jealous before) and I'd like to keep it that way so that my analysis isn't skewed by some subjective interpretations of how XYZ played in a game like, 486973 years ago. Only exception is if it's a bad player who has pronounced differences between their town/ scum game that means they make themselves obvious or some shit. So if we could keep the "X is scum/ town due to meta" talk down to a minimum then that'll be lovely. As far as initial impressions go, I town-lean Jealous (this is mainly because we were posting similar things at approximately the same time when we were questioning Stutters so he's more likely to be coming from the same mindset as myself) Ambivalent on Daneler. I didn't like his entrance because he was using someone else's words to put forth his opinion and then commented on something that looks odd but his follow-up made sense. Stutters has done some questionable things with his claims to want to generate discussion. These two posts struck me as strange: On September 24 2016 08:26 Stutters695 wrote:On September 24 2016 08:21 Jealous wrote:On September 24 2016 08:19 Stutters695 wrote:On September 24 2016 08:04 Xatalos wrote:
Unfortunately, looks like you can't vote for yourself in this setup :/ To everyone else, this is why we should lynch him today. He's always one step ahead, we'll never catch him. On a more serious note, how does everyone feel about going with the scummiest of the inevitable inactives? Activity always seems to be a struggle in these games and I won't be lynchbait for once. I'm usually pro-PL but it's too early to make such a decision. We need to see how others are posting. It's odd that you suggest this so early. This is how I get reactions (or saying something controversial then lurking and waiting for reactions, but you don't want that). Obviously I don't want to lynch a lurker though because I want to lynch Xata. Here he says that he was reaction-testing. NAI by itself but the fact that he capitulated so quickly makes me skeptical. Scum are more likely to shy away from their actions in this manner compared to town (who would be more confident in their ability to defend themselves) because they don't want too much attention. Stutters:Calix:
You only got two responses before claiming it was a reaction-test? My dear Watson, the game is afoot. That does seem kind of counterproductive in retrospect. I think this is the part though where you guys debate if I'm terrible, trying to come off as terrible while scum or part of some master play. Here he notes that people are likely to discuss his posts. Again, totally normal thing to say by itself, but what I don't like is the fact that he notes most of the possibilities before anyone can actually talk about him...since this limits opportunities for discussion...which goes against his stated aim of getting reactions and thus starting conversation. It's not a legit contradiction or anything but I'd like Stutters to flesh out his reasoning here. On September 24 2016 16:38 Lunaticman wrote:On September 24 2016 16:18 Skynx wrote:
Hmm Lunatic intro worst i guess.
Man i dont get why get this PL discussion every game. Its quite simple, odds are town barely have any info D1 to decide on a proper lynch, hence guy with 2 posts dies. Sometimes scum slip, or someone has incredible meta read confidence or w/e, then you dont't pl. Simple stuff. Somehow I knew you would say that. I hope we can stay on friendly terms this time around but I doubt it. Stutters is so far the most obvious townie. I am a bit afraid of the logical development of this game. TL is filled with smarties that loves to talk the talk but always lynch the random dude that didnt sound smart. This will be the doom of us all I tell you, nobody can look more perfect then the mafia because they already know everything! This looks like the current meta afk townies and leading mafia for sure. This totally reminds me if the palmar/hf domination game check it out. What makes you think Stutters is the most townie player in the thread? Are you claiming to be one of the dumb-sounding people?  Fourth part is just weird. It states the obvious ("mafia are informed and will try to look townie") but it does it in a hyperbolic manner. Where are you going here? If you think mafia are leading the discussion then that implies that you suspect players and this is something you did not put down in favour of a town-read. Who could fall under this category of 'leading mafia' in your eyes, if anyone? Stutters is obvious town for me at least, I can understand why you wouldn't notice but I have played with him 4 times in a row and I'm pretty sure he is town. *shakes my head* are you really going to settle on a town read based on meta???
On September 25 2016 12:25 SoulEaterQUEEN wrote:Show nested quote +On September 25 2016 01:37 DanelerH wrote:On September 25 2016 01:18 Xatalos wrote:On September 25 2016 00:46 DanelerH wrote:On September 25 2016 00:23 Lunaticman wrote:On September 24 2016 23:53 DanelerH wrote:I am not liking Lunaticman right now. First of all, basically all Lunatic has done is posted a random Town read. Let's take a look at it: On September 24 2016 16:38 Lunaticman wrote:On September 24 2016 16:18 Skynx wrote:
Hmm Lunatic intro worst i guess.
Man i dont get why get this PL discussion every game. Its quite simple, odds are town barely have any info D1 to decide on a proper lynch, hence guy with 2 posts dies. Sometimes scum slip, or someone has incredible meta read confidence or w/e, then you dont't pl. Simple stuff. Somehow I knew you would say that. I hope we can stay on friendly terms this time around but I doubt it. Stutters is so far the most obvious townie. I am a bit afraid of the logical development of this game. TL is filled with smarties that loves to talk the talk but always lynch the random dude that didnt sound smart. This will be the doom of us all I tell you, nobody can look more perfect then the mafia because they already know everything! This looks like the current meta afk townies and leading mafia for sure. This totally reminds me if the palmar/hf domination game check it out. Lunaticman just throws a random Town-read in the middle of a bunch of irrelevant information. Furthermore, xe doesn't give any reasoning for the Town-read. When asked about it, xe responded with this series of posts: On September 24 2016 20:07 Lunaticman wrote:On September 24 2016 19:29 Rels wrote:On September 24 2016 18:13 Lunaticman wrote:On September 24 2016 17:32 Calix wrote:Yo. I have a bit of time in the morning to pop in. I actually don't mind the activity as much as I usually would because the posting isn't just a bunch of useless spam and it's much easier to catch up/ reread stuff. [quote] Just to pop in with my two cents on this matter. Meta is good for establishing what is NAI for a player. (e.g., how often they vote or if they talk in a particular way) but I agree that a lot of people, myself included at times, use it as a substitute for analysis. I'm not familiar with many people here (I've only really played with Skynx/ Superbia/ Jealous before) and I'd like to keep it that way so that my analysis isn't skewed by some subjective interpretations of how XYZ played in a game like, 486973 years ago. Only exception is if it's a bad player who has pronounced differences between their town/ scum game that means they make themselves obvious or some shit. So if we could keep the "X is scum/ town due to meta" talk down to a minimum then that'll be lovely. As far as initial impressions go, I town-lean Jealous (this is mainly because we were posting similar things at approximately the same time when we were questioning Stutters so he's more likely to be coming from the same mindset as myself) Ambivalent on Daneler. I didn't like his entrance because he was using someone else's words to put forth his opinion and then commented on something that looks odd but his follow-up made sense. Stutters has done some questionable things with his claims to want to generate discussion. These two posts struck me as strange: [quote] Here he says that he was reaction-testing. NAI by itself but the fact that he capitulated so quickly makes me skeptical. Scum are more likely to shy away from their actions in this manner compared to town (who would be more confident in their ability to defend themselves) because they don't want too much attention. [quote] Here he notes that people are likely to discuss his posts. Again, totally normal thing to say by itself, but what I don't like is the fact that he notes most of the possibilities before anyone can actually talk about him...since this limits opportunities for discussion...which goes against his stated aim of getting reactions and thus starting conversation. It's not a legit contradiction or anything but I'd like Stutters to flesh out his reasoning here. [quote] What makes you think Stutters is the most townie player in the thread? Are you claiming to be one of the dumb-sounding people? Fourth part is just weird. It states the obvious ("mafia are informed and will try to look townie") but it does it in a hyperbolic manner. Where are you going here? If you think mafia are leading the discussion then that implies that you suspect players and this is something you did not put down in favour of a town-read. Who could fall under this category of 'leading mafia' in your eyes, if anyone? Stutters is obvious town for me at least, I can understand why you wouldn't notice but I have played with him 4 times in a row and I'm pretty sure he is town. Please explain Well I don't want to day 1 because of reasons to be disclosed at a later date. He is not going to be lynched today at the very least. On September 24 2016 20:49 Lunaticman wrote:On September 24 2016 20:27 Rels wrote:On September 24 2016 20:07 Lunaticman wrote:On September 24 2016 19:29 Rels wrote:
[quote]
Please explain Well I don't want to day 1 because of reasons to be disclosed at a later date. He is not going to be lynched today at the very least. I'll remember that. This "I promise I have ghood reasons" comes more often from scum than from town though. That is just speculation and if you were town you wouldn't force me to say why I have a town read. On September 24 2016 21:20 Lunaticman wrote:On September 24 2016 20:51 Rels wrote:On September 24 2016 20:49 Lunaticman wrote:On September 24 2016 20:27 Rels wrote:
[quote]
I'll remember that. This "I promise I have ghood reasons" comes more often from scum than from town though. That is just speculation and if you were town you wouldn't force me to say why I have a town read. Why woudln't I do such a thing ? So apparently you think I'm scum ? No I didn't say that you are scum I just find it suspect why I have to tell you why I town read him even though I don't want to yet. There is no reason not to give your reasoning for a Town-read. I want to know why you think Shutters is Town and I will not accept "I'll tell you later" as an answer. The game is 4 pages long day one, take a chill pill. I dare to say I have done more than half the players in the game and in my experience you never hit mafia day one. It is much better to build a town circle. Also Stutters is in all likelyhood a blue role. And if he dies it is on you and Rels. I'm still not seeing an answer as to why you think Stutters is Town. Dodging my question is not making me any less suspicious of you. You realize what you're asking for...? I highly doubt Lunaticman actually believes Stutters is a TPR. It sounds a lot more like Lunaticman is just trying to fake a reason not to give a reason for the Town-read. Sweetheart, I understand your suspicion on Lunatic, but I am worried about your confirmation bias leading you astray here.
On September 25 2016 12:30 SoulEaterQUEEN wrote:Show nested quote +On September 25 2016 01:51 Lunaticman wrote:
Im going to concert so the TLDR, is tone/meta/activity. Stutters has shown more intrest and activity in the first day than recent games combined.
Of course he has a power role, and from context I dont think he is mafia.
I am kind of suprised by how this escelated from a simple townread. It feels like someone doesnt want to build a town circle and jerk peoples chain instead. & what is wrong with jerking people's chain approach exactly???
On September 25 2016 12:41 SoulEaterQUEEN wrote:Show nested quote +On September 25 2016 07:50 Lunaticman wrote:
You clearly didnt read the whole thing ptmc because I got pressured into saying Stutters was a blue read by rels and Da.
They called me scum for it and I saw no positive outcome in hiding the information since he could br killed by being a townread player anyway. No matter how you spin it you can make anyone look scummy.
Im going to sleep now and Im putting my vote on Da so I dont miss it. Confused here. How does one get pressured into a blue read? Your read is your read, f*ck everyone else's opinion unless you are unsure. ^_^ (though I may have interpreted this part, oopsie if I did) also note: just because you do scummy things, you shouldn't change your actions/thoughts for other people, playing to someone else's ways is going to make you look a hellava scummier player by being unsure of your playstyle.
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On September 27 2016 06:29 Skynx wrote:Show nested quote +On September 27 2016 06:19 Calix wrote:
If you think that mafia would find it impossible to push Lunatic like SEQ did (will check in a moment) then what stops him from being in your god-tier town bracket? Show nested quote +On September 25 2016 11:56 SoulEaterQUEEN wrote:On September 24 2016 16:38 Lunaticman wrote:On September 24 2016 16:18 Skynx wrote:
Hmm Lunatic intro worst i guess.
Man i dont get why get this PL discussion every game. Its quite simple, odds are town barely have any info D1 to decide on a proper lynch, hence guy with 2 posts dies. Sometimes scum slip, or someone has incredible meta read confidence or w/e, then you dont't pl. Simple stuff. Somehow I knew you would say that. I hope we can stay on friendly terms this time around but I doubt it. Stutters is so far the most obvious townie. I am a bit afraid of the logical development of this game. TL is filled with smarties that loves to talk the talk but always lynch the random dude that didnt sound smart. This will be the doom of us all I tell you, nobody can look more perfect then the mafia because they already know everything! This looks like the current meta afk townies and leading mafia for sure. This totally reminds me if the palmar/hf domination game check it out. Thanks for the read though not sure how you arrived on that conclusion on the obvious townie part of Stutters, would like some elaboration please. but the rest of the post feels like it is filled with filler. Don't get the point of it. This is the first post him pushing Lunatic, like only few hours into game. Show nested quote +On September 25 2016 12:30 SoulEaterQUEEN wrote:On September 25 2016 01:51 Lunaticman wrote:
Im going to concert so the TLDR, is tone/meta/activity. Stutters has shown more intrest and activity in the first day than recent games combined.
Of course he has a power role, and from context I dont think he is mafia.
I am kind of suprised by how this escelated from a simple townread. It feels like someone doesnt want to build a town circle and jerk peoples chain instead. & what is wrong with jerking people's chain approach exactly??? Show nested quote +On September 25 2016 12:41 SoulEaterQUEEN wrote:On September 25 2016 07:50 Lunaticman wrote:
You clearly didnt read the whole thing ptmc because I got pressured into saying Stutters was a blue read by rels and Da.
They called me scum for it and I saw no positive outcome in hiding the information since he could br killed by being a townread player anyway. No matter how you spin it you can make anyone look scummy.
Im going to sleep now and Im putting my vote on Da so I dont miss it. Confused here. How does one get pressured into a blue read? Your read is your read, f*ck everyone else's opinion unless you are unsure. ^_^ (though I may have interpreted this part, oopsie if I did) also note: just because you do scummy things, you shouldn't change your actions/thoughts for other people, playing to someone else's ways is going to make you look a hellava scummier player by being unsure of your playstyle. He continues on like this until Lunatic does the blue read and all that jazz. He literally forces a mistake from mafia by sheer pressure. You're right he should be top tier actually but i dunno some stuff in my mind prevented that. I'm actually so fkin tired.
While I agree that he is likely town, I think you're giving him too much credit here. He wasn't the only person pushing Lunatic in the manner that you described above - this leads me to conclude that SEQ was part of the collective pressure on Lunatic, not that SEQ was the sole player who was pressuring Lunatic prior to the TPR post.
Tired, huh? All I have to do to relate is to read your posts But I'd like a more fleshed-out read if we're both still alive in like 20 fucking minutes, lol.
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Superbia hadn't done a great deal in terms of pushing player so probably a medic dodge or targeting experienced players or something like that.
Not worth dwelling on right now - too much WIFOM involved with early night kills. I doubt it'll be productive until like, Day 4 and even that's a crapshoot.
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I don't relate to a lot of the associative logic that's being used. Probably a site meta difference because scum on my site are more prone to low-key pushing their scum buddies to distance themselves before making some weird-ass defenses of them later on so it's really jarring to see people (like myself, Skynx, TT, etc) get town-read with the first point as a large contributing factor to that town-read. Is it really that rare for scum buddies to question each other?
Both the Skynx case (by Xatalos) and the Xatalos associations case (by Skynx) were absolute crap and were reliant on confirmation bias to support a pre-existing point. They just consisted of some throwaway comments which may possibly indicate scum/ scum interactions but maybe not and it was painful to read. Of those posts, TT made the best point when he said that Xatalos was being a hedge master with regards to Lunatic and talking too much and saying too little. Could just be how he talks (if anyone who's played with him before could chip in with their thoughts there then that would be good) but if I find the time then I'm going to see if his tone changed over the game. If it did then that's incriminating as hell.
Skynx' reaction to Xatalos was the most riled up I've seen him and that was in response to him being attacked. It stands out to me because of the departure from his more resigned "lynch me" attitude near the D1 EOD to someone who is defending themselves more vigorously.
@Skynx, what changed for you here?
Right now I think DYH is the best lynch. He's still not scum-hunting and whatever he's preparing had better be good and a lot of his defense was WIFOM (I wouldn't do X as scum) and meta analysis (which I don't understand nor do I care to because meta is shit). It's funny because he's spent more time on talking about himself over anyone else and that self-involvement is not something that comes from town.
Yeah, this can die.
Stutters is also scummy. Something I've noticed with him is that he is always promising to do certain things ("I'll have this big post ready before EON/ EOD" being just one example) but has followed through on almost none of them and I have not seen a RL reason for him not doing that or any explanation at all. He just drops it. It's like he says that to get people off his back because nobody wants to waste someone's time when they've promised to do XYZ.
@Scott, I've just started university and I just got a new job, so I only get an hour or so to myself on most days.
Above two are the players I think are the most likely scum atm. I think Scott is also a possibility and TT's points make me want to re-visit my Xatalos read too. Also going to look at Jealous, Skynx too just because they have been less active so I need to remind myself of what they've done this game.
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Okay I've only skimmed the first two pages of his filter but the waffling thing is something he does in a lot of his posts.
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Anyway I might be back in an hour or so.
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On September 28 2016 20:06 Tictock wrote:
Eh I totally see where you guys are coming from on stutters, but I'm kinda with Rels. Stutters is pretty solidly town in my view.
His opening play seems to be purposefully drawing attention to himself and that's not really something mafia does.
Lunatic almost certainly spewed Stutters town. In my experience mafia has a hard time explaining townreads sometimes because they just know someone is town, and sometimes mafia defend town that look bad just so they look better when that person flips. This is almost certainly what happened this game, Lunatic saw Stutters under attack and decided to throw him an easy townread which came under fire and he couldn't back it up.
Is stutters play very towny in it of itself? Not terribly, but I don't see what his game is if he is scum playing this way either.
I'll make a note to give his filter a once over later though.
It was at the beginning of the game though - saying that "scum don't do X at Y point" is player-reliant so I don't put a lot of stock into those kinds of arguments.
The beginning of the game is also when the scum are vulnerable because they can really give themselves away with how they enter the thread and present themselves in the first few posts. What I'm saying here is that scum tend to make worse posts at the start because they don't know how the town will react to certain players, they don't know who the easy targets will be, they won't have a good idea of what strategy they are using yet. That means that you can catch them off-guard with one or two bad posts such as the ones Stutters made. This is a reliable habit that I've noticed with scum and that's what I think happened. And since it's at the start of the game, it's easier for said posts to be overlooked by something else cropping up.
Lunatic didn't have a hard time explaining it - he just outright refused to say anything and then said "oh it's meta, tone and TPR" so I don't agree with that characterisation. How would scum have a harder time explaining town reads? They know who the town are so they can pick up on really subtle 'town tells' that town players make that the town are less likely to notice.
It is possible that Lunatic was white-knighting, as you said, but that fumbling around with his read has a lot of holes no matter how you look at it. In short, it's a terrible attempt at white-knighting because it just drew more attention to both of them and Stutters didn't town-read Lunatic for it and it's a terrible defense of scum as he didn't explain it straight away. So that's why I am not focused on that read outside of "it's bad play".
I agree that just focusing on Stutters' post is 10x more productive than some throwaway town-read so let me know what you make of Stutters once you get the time to read it.
On September 28 2016 20:49 Skynx wrote:Show nested quote +On September 28 2016 18:42 Calix wrote:
I don't relate to a lot of the associative logic that's being used. Probably a site meta difference because scum on my site are more prone to low-key pushing their scum buddies to distance themselves before making some weird-ass defenses of them later on so it's really jarring to see people (like myself, Skynx, TT, etc) get town-read with the first point as a large contributing factor to that town-read. Is it really that rare for scum buddies to question each other?
Both the Skynx case (by Xatalos) and the Xatalos associations case (by Skynx) were absolute crap and were reliant on confirmation bias to support a pre-existing point. They just consisted of some throwaway comments which may possibly indicate scum/ scum interactions but maybe not and it was painful to read. Of those posts, TT made the best point when he said that Xatalos was being a hedge master with regards to Lunatic and talking too much and saying too little. Could just be how he talks (if anyone who's played with him before could chip in with their thoughts there then that would be good) but if I find the time then I'm going to see if his tone changed over the game. If it did then that's incriminating as hell.
Skynx' reaction to Xatalos was the most riled up I've seen him and that was in response to him being attacked. It stands out to me because of the departure from his more resigned "lynch me" attitude near the D1 EOD to someone who is defending themselves more vigorously.
@Skynx, what changed for you here?
Right now I think DYH is the best lynch. He's still not scum-hunting and whatever he's preparing had better be good and a lot of his defense was WIFOM (I wouldn't do X as scum) and meta analysis (which I don't understand nor do I care to because meta is shit). It's funny because he's spent more time on talking about himself over anyone else and that self-involvement is not something that comes from town.
Yeah, this can die.
Stutters is also scummy. Something I've noticed with him is that he is always promising to do certain things ("I'll have this big post ready before EON/ EOD" being just one example) but has followed through on almost none of them and I have not seen a RL reason for him not doing that or any explanation at all. He just drops it. It's like he says that to get people off his back because nobody wants to waste someone's time when they've promised to do XYZ.
@Scott, I've just started university and I just got a new job, so I only get an hour or so to myself on most days.
Above two are the players I think are the most likely scum atm. I think Scott is also a possibility and TT's points make me want to re-visit my Xatalos read too. Also going to look at Jealous, Skynx too just because they have been less active so I need to remind myself of what they've done this game. Man you might wanna read it again i think you got us mixed up. None of my reasons voting Xata was associative, in fact quite the opposite i sr him cuz of his bad reasons for associating me with Lunatic which are all long long shots of assumption the way he presented them. My case is based on the fact that town!Xata is incapable of reaching these conclusions from an unbiased pow. About me presenting myself as lynch target i agree that now it turned out to be a bad idea cuz i havent read the thread at all at that point and didnt knew Luna's lynch was like 95% certain. It was mainly cuz i've been so busy and town would be right to lynch me at that point.
Nah my dude, I'm saying that your "Xatalos/ DYH are in cahoots" post was shite, not your "Xatalos' case on me is shite" post.
It was part of my point about how a lot of people are making terrible associations - I think you guys are straining a muscle to make the few posts that Lunatic/ DYH/ etc made fit your conclusions instead of just analysing the actual person and forming a conclusion that way.
Gotcha.
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EPT
