A normal game just for JAT <3 - Page 24

On April 17 2016 03:33 gumshoe wrote:
So I’m pretty confidant that tumbleweed is scum,



This initial post is a mess, Jas called him out on it, but I really feel he left him off too easy.

On the one hand, Tumble is saying that I did something typical of scum, therefore onegu is town.

On the other hes saying that I’m his top town read(while not offering any evidence as to why ) and that onegu is just null


Hes of two completely opposite minds here, his two stances in his first few posts pretty much cancel out, though he seems to still regard me as town for reasons he hasn't actually provided. Only one piece of information can actually be extracted from this contradictory mess.

That if I’m scum, Onegu is town and likely vice versa.

So let's run through the possibilities, the pro human scenario here is that I flip scum thereby clearing Onegu of suspicion. This is the least likely case according to Tumble himself as I am fairly townie, therefore the possibility of me getting killed by town are low. Which means we can also disregard the possibility of me flipping town and what that might mean for onegu(likely nothing).

This leaves the Onegu flips, if Onegu flips town (which I think he might) than according to tumble, that means that I, his top town read, have a high probability of flipping scum. Also to be honest an argument can be pretty easily made for why Onegu flipping scum doesn't look good on me either.

Tumble’s relatively innocuous linking of me and Onegu’s alignments hinges on me (his top town read) flipping red to be of any use, it also possibly results in my lynch in response to a practically inevitable Onegu flip.

So to summarize, if Tumble is town, he has created a vulnerability to be exploited, if not by him than likely scum, against his top town read. Or hes at least made said vulnerability very very clear, while effectively doing nothing for Onegu (as a potential death for me at the hands of town will not likely come before his, which means my theoretical red flip will never come in time to save him).

So yeah, kinda of a wierd move coming from a townie.

-------------------------------------------------------

So lets approach it from the other side, say tumble is scum, we know that me and him are unlikely to be scum together because of the existence of this post, which means onegu is unlikely to be scum with tumble as my death would never actually clear him(cause Im not scum if tumbles scum) and his death would not outright incriminate me according to tumbles logic (though I still personally think onegu flipping scum would do me no favours XD)

Basically, there's no gain to this post for scum tumble if either onegu or I am also scum, it’s a 1 1 trade at best. Considering that Tumble kind of contradicted himself with this post (saying I did something scummy in a roundabout way while making me his top town read) I have a hard time believing that he would put himself out there like that with no gain in mind.

Therefore we can only conclude that if Tumble is scum, me and Onegu are town and things would ideally go down like this for him.

Onegu dies, he flips green, then someone, preferably a misguided townie (looking at you Gb) comes after me for what looks like an early game pocketing of Onegu. I am then lynched or am cast under enough suspicion that I serve as a vote draw, thereby allowing scum more leverage over the lynch.

This is the scenario in which tumbles post makes the most sense. If we consider his scum intent clashing with his acceptance of thread sentiment (at this point several key townies ruled me green), we can explain the three major points of obscurity in his post. 1: His unexplained town read of me 2: his seemingly contradictory analysis of my interactions with onegu(in respect to his town read of me) and 3: the use of ‘the person’ and 'gumshoe' separately to refer to me in the same post.



I think Tumble is well aware of the contradictory nature of his post and either consciously or unconsciously reveals the divide in his play between what he feels he needs to do as scum to 'the person' and how he feels he should actually appear to keep his cover.

Yeah… that last psychoanalysis bit is a stretch but my point is basically this, his combining of me and onegu’s alignments makes much more sense from a scum view than a town one.

Thats the big thing, but theres some other bits.



Yeah… this really looks like hes trying to get people to jump on a nub.



Him giving Palmar a pass (another scumish read of mine) does not look particularly good on him / : (though to be fair alot of people seem to be doing it, fringe perks of the throne I suppose)



I feel like this kind of translates into “ I will sheep the eventual consensus on what jas is” which is probally how he came to town read me initially / :

Lastly his Rsoul push just feels really lackluster, theres no real emotion there, he just sort of kind of thinks she's acting meh. I'd go into it, but this is already long enough and the wagon on Rsoul started with a random Onegu vote so I have a really hard time taking the whole thing seriously -_-

So yeah, Tumble is currently mah kill of preference.

##vote tumble

obligatory

On April 17 2016 03:02 Superbia wrote:
Now: Palmar:

Town palmar would've taken a grip on the game already. Tbf the game is going pretty much nowhere this close to EoD (imo). It's very undirected. Town palmar takes control and leads a direction. The push on rso is not.

In fact, Palmar's push on rso indicates a plan. And from all my games with palmar, he always has some sort of planned d1 as scum. He makes up some sort of plan or method to determine who is scum or something similar. This push on rso seems the exact same way (though I do not know what it says about rso's alignment). Pre-planned.

His read on me adds on to the lack of town direction he's taken this game. As town you are usually aligned to the people who have similar reads. That's why it is not weird for me to half-flip on rso. The fact that Palmar groups us together cements this un-townie, overfocused mindset.

I encourage everyone to check out Palmar's scum games and look at his play d1 (specifically the ones I was in as well, I believe it was russia or titanic or something). It's pre-planned and lazy.

Now look at his town games. It starts off super lazy but he always picks up very quickly. Especially when the town has no leader (i.e. as we have now). He is nowhere this game. This some prepackaged bullshit plan.

##Vote: Palmar

On April 17 2016 04:13 Rels wrote:

What do you make of the fact that Palmar was lynched D1 as town recently for playing like that ?

On April 17 2016 04:28 gumshoe wrote:


if hes scum, then he probally thinks he can get away with this kind of play exactly because of his last game, as people will be less likely to kill him / :

The point is, outside his meta hes playing anti town and within his meta he could easily be town or scum as this kind of play is not at all hard to enact.

On April 17 2016 04:37 Rels wrote:

Agree. So he is a coinflip.

On April 17 2016 04:45 Rels wrote:
What changed with Superbia ?

On April 17 2016 04:49 rsoultin wrote:


well it's not really a townread tbh more of a i'm not sure what to make of his push on palmar read. i can see him believing what he's saying about palmar, even though i've seen palmar do this before as town (toad, wave in noir, etc) so know he's not necessarily right

On April 17 2016 04:50 rsoultin wrote:


actually what that should say is his case is wrong but his read could be right