EPTOn February 07 2016 17:58 Breshke wrote:
/in
Oh, hey. Long time no see!/in
Shin Megami Tensei: The Devil Inside Mafia
| Forum Index > TL Mafia |
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
| ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 09 2016 15:55 Breshke wrote: Not playing the game happens, as both alignments. I'm guilty of it a ton of times myself.Yeah it feels like it has been ages. Sorry about that last game we played. I think it was fullmetal Also you should in and ill promise I won't disappear and put in every effort to not be shit. I'm pretty busy right now, and lately I haven't been enjoying mafia as much, to be honest. Joining this game is still tempting, but I know I'd regret it later.... | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
 /in Might out later, depending on how my schedule goes. I also will try to reduce my activity and avoid spam, both because I'm busy and because my play has been rather unfocused over my past few games. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
If someone else can do the really scummy thing so that everyone can scumread them and the game can start, that would be great. I'm kinda getting sick of being scumread by everyone for the entire game. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 16 2016 06:04 Tumblewood wrote: Well you're no fun Scumreading Trfel pretty hard right now tbh Sicklucker, to make sure I'm understanding you correctly, you're simultaneously worried about both too much activity and lack of activity? | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 16 2016 06:06 rsoultin wrote: I guess lynching you just became even easier lol so dorky tina just realized deadline's at 3 i'll still have class tues/thursoh well \o/  | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 16 2016 06:11 rsoultin wrote: Are you referring to GlowingBear, or the lack of people present?pfft looks like i'm not the only one who got deadline wrong -rolls around the thread- | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 16 2016 06:20 Palmar wrote: Oh Palmar, what would I ever do without you.I'm fake afk until tomorrow The Shining, what happened to the can't play on Mondays thing? | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 16 2016 06:41 The Shining wrote: Mostly just curious.It's snowing today so I didn't go out and live life/school today. I'm also just phoneposting. Is this AI for you? | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 16 2016 07:36 sicklucker wrote: Sicklucker, The Shining is also quite interested in your thoughts so far.Dear diary Ticktock thinks im interesting! im so exited and tina is rolling around On February 16 2016 06:12 The Shining wrote: But you /in'd last. The player list was the same when you did. Why are you just now experiencing these fears? | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
Eden is mafia because he's been present and seemingly interested, but has avoided talking about any of the things that have been happening. Eden has focused on setup speculation. This isn't inherently scummy, it's largely useless, which can come from either alignment. However, Eden seemed very interested in getting people to interact with him about his setup talk, instead of asking people about reads or commenting on things in the thread. This post directly shows Eden's desire to talk with people about the setup: + Show Spoiler + On February 16 2016 08:18 Eden1892 wrote: "I don't pay attention to the world ending. It has ended for me many times, and began again in the morning." Let's get to it. Any particular objections to millers claiming? In contrast, see his one read this game: + Show Spoiler + On February 16 2016 08:24 Eden1892 wrote: Also, for posterity's sake as much as anything else (how long can this streak last???)... Early guess that rsoultin is town off of tone of post. I put a lot less stock in this than I would have last year, since there's been plenty of time for her to emulate her posting style as mafia, and I recall her starting to do so anyway before I went on sabbatical. But for the moment I still consider it reason to give a cautious town read. Eden doesn't invite discussion, he doesn't even provide his reasons or basic framework for his read. He also weakens the force of his read significantly by providing doubts, resulting in a weak conclusion as well. Eden's disconnect from the thread and lack of interest in alignments says that Eden is mafia. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
What do you think about sicklucker so far? Particularly his first post, since it drew a lot of attention, but you didn't comment on it. Anyway, I do feel that Palmar is very likely to be town because of meta. As mafia, Palmar doesn't push people in this way. And yes, I still feel comfortable with this read even before seeing the reasons or the followup. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 16 2016 08:03 Palmar wrote: I guess I should have left this with my above post, but to make my read a bit more clear, this is the post that makes me think that Palmar is town.trfel might be too, but breshke 100+% It's not just that he's irrationally confident that Breshke is town, even without sharing reasons. As mafia, Palmar doesn't push things this way, he just doesn't. It's not a very direct method for scum to go "this guy is scum, this guy is scum, no I'm not going to tell you why but he's definitely scum". For Palmar to go out of his normal playstyle in an indirect manner like this, and then go farther to add that I (Trfel) might be mafia, I'm almost certain it's not in Palmar's mafia mindset. It's such an indirect approach for mafia to take with minimal gain, since it doesn't at all line up mislynches. Anyway, I hope that makes a little sense, I'm bad at explaining stuff. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 16 2016 09:00 Shapelog wrote: Post #151 is directed to the thread as a whole, if that's the one you are referring to. I have no questions for Eden at the moment, if he cares to respond to my accusations he is free to do so.Trofl....Who are you talking to in your last post? Eden? | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 16 2016 09:07 sicklucker wrote: If I may, why does the first portion (Eden is either VT or mafia) and the second portion (day 1 lynch is set on Eden) make sense together?Edens never anything but vt or mafia with that post. I think are day one lynch is locked up see ya torm Assuming 3 power roles (upper estimate), there are 7 town and 3 mafia, so that's a 30% chance of the lynch hitting mafia. Why does this make you so sure that you want to lynch Eden? | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
| ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
Why didn't you vote for Eden earlier? Like, why did you wait until after I did? Sorry for the post spam, I'll head out now. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
So why didn't you mention it then? | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 16 2016 09:44 Shapelog wrote: You posted a question?See Trofl you did not answer my question :/... This is why i cannot share my nice logic/reads with you. Oh, I thought it was rhetorical. I obviously disagree. Power roles can play their own roles, they don't need someone to direct them. The point isn't the setup speculation, that's not alignment indicative. I can't see how Eden as town could care so much about his setup speculation and not care about anything else. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
Like, Eden's statement is of minimal significance, and even less relevance. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
My read on Palmar has been pretty good over the last several games by observing this trend. @Eden: I described using both quotes and explanations why I characterize your play as I did. @All: Look at how Eden started the game in his last two games as town. Both times, he was direct and to the point with insight and reads to get things going. Here, he's been all over the place. Instead of an early scumread or push to get the game started, there's "I want the miller to claim, does anyone disagree?" It's completely different and lacks direction. Eden has felt more involved since, but he still hasn't been doing anything, it feels like he is reacting instead of making things happen. Maybe there's something to do with his time of entrance to the thread, though, I'll check. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
Simple. 100% correct.Well, okay, not 100% because he didn't actually do anything, but close to it for the other additional reasons that I gave. Anyway, Eden's entrance in his two latest games was significantly later than his posts in this game. Maybe I'm overestimating the interest of the thread early on. I'll look at Eden's filter again. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
I don't feel that asking for millers to claim accomplishes this. And regardless of opinion, it certainly doesn't replace sharing reads and solving the game. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
I had a feeling that no one would understand this point Feeling confirmed. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
Rsoultin, did you find any of these things interesting? | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 16 2016 11:47 Eden1892 wrote: Eden, that's what I'm saying. That wasn't a veiled snippy rhetorical question because:I'm glad you did, but that doesn't make them of any objective interest in determining their alignments. You can also just come out and say that you think I'm mafia for failing to find these things interesting instead of using these veiled snippy rhetorical questions. I'm making my stance clear That wasn't a rhetorical question Though I suppose "snippy" is a matter of opinion. Though I am doubting that you would be annoyed as mafia here. It doesn't make sense. I guess it's more likely that I'm just being stupid I should really figure out that people don't place the same importance as I do in things. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 16 2016 11:58 Breshke wrote: I found Tictock's play surprisingly active, I'm not used to Tictock having a larger presence in the game. He also seemed rather relaxed. However, I think I remember Tictock being one of those players who almost seem more involved and willing to interact as scum than as town, I'll check that when I have more time.Trefel what is SL's alignment? Also could you quote specific posts of TT's you found interesting? I feel that sicklucker is slightly more likely town for being both more and less argumentative than I expected. Sicklucker has a very weird stance for mafia to take, and I'm not used to sicklucker admitting that he made an error and trying to work with me as mafia. Last time I was suspicious of sicklucker and he was mafia, we yelled at each other for a while and he just out-yelled me instead of answering my statements. So I actually think he's more likely town. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
I want to townread Tictock for his relaxed tone and decent activity, but I feel hesitant because I remember thinking he was town for those reasons one game where he was mafia. I feel that Breshke's reaction to Palmar's push is a bit towny. That feels like a really stupid thing for mafia to do, because it's a horrible reaction. If Palmar decided to push me early Day 1, I'd be extremely careful and cautious with how I responded, I wouldn't throw away a response like "nope". Breshke is also a methodical town player. I think that's about all I have. I should have some time to go over stuff again tomorrow morning. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
| ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 16 2016 12:27 GlowingBear wrote: Hi, GlowingBear WHO'S MAFIA? | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
I specifically said that setup speculation is not mafia indicative. I stated this several times that this is NOT why I was scumreading you. I was scumreading you for being separated from the thread and completely ignoring everything else that was going on. This isn't necessarily mafia indicative, but when coupled with how seriously you took the setup talk, to me it seemed extremely suspect. This argument is clear throughout my posts. Eden's second series of posts showed willingness to interact and involvement in the game, directly contradicting my arguments, causing me to strongly reconsider. Furthermore, my meta had an extremely serious flaw. It frustrates me greatly when people say that my arguments are things that they clearly aren't when half of my argument is explaining why this isn't what I'm saying in the first place. If you're going to call my argument bad, please actually acknowledge that you understand what my argument is first. Thanks. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
I am capable of understanding the arguments for simple things like "the miller should claim", thank you very much. It's just not alignment indicative in and of itself. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 17 2016 08:03 Eden1892 wrote: Why are you so confident in Tictock being town? I don't have great reasons to townread him right now, and I didn't see anything in your filter, correct me if I missed something?Except that at no point was I separated from the thread? I led off with setup posting and immediately started doing other things (townreading rsoultin, talking to Tictock) as they came up. This has been demonstrably and flagrantly false from the outset. You basically said that I was scum for talking about setup spec at the alleged expense of other things. Since I was talking about other things, that alleged expense was not actually an expense, and your argument becomes "Eden is scum for talking about setup spec." When someone calls you out on how my setup spec was pro-town you handwave it as irrelevant and continue pushing this line of argument. Anyway, you don't have to say that my arguments are incorrect by responding to arguments that I didn't actually make. I'm well aware that town is perfectly capable (and often does) talk about setup. I've already directly explained what caused me to say the things that I did, with quotes and specifics, and I've specifically shown what caused my read to change, so I have nothing more to say on the matter. I'm slightly leaning town on Tumblewood, his posting feels a bit more free than last game. It's a weak read, but I think it will be made more clear in time. My biggest suspicion is probably The Shining right now, but that's not a very big suspicion I need to reread the thread when I can, but I'm doing a pretty lousy job of finding mafia. I'll try and get to it later tonight. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 17 2016 08:05 Eden1892 wrote: This is correct, I don't think that it is at all alignment indicative. However, I disagree that it is a strictly worse play.So it's not alignment indicative for me to push a line of argument that only helps town? If I'm mafia and doing it then I'm reducing my own team's outs to redchecks to get towncred when I can do other things to get towncred without reducing those outs. It's a strictly worse line of play than several other ones, like simply being fake-afk until real stuff happens that I can talk about. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
The Shining still hasn't come back, to me this makes his posts feel a bit dry. Suddenly vanishing, in addition to still not having come back, while seeming to be interested in his sicklucker read earlier, feels off to me, however it's quite early in the game and it's possible that he's just suddenly busy or a bit disinterested for some reason. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 17 2016 09:32 rsoultin wrote: And you say that my reads are useless...not lynching the truffle ^^ he sounded like a truffle what does a truffle sound like? truffle sounds like a truffle in this game #circularreasoningftw | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 17 2016 10:40 sicklucker wrote: Sicklucker, you do know that the "spew yourself town" ability is most easily activated while being lynched, right?rsoultin is giving me mafia vibes but I still wouldnt lynch her day one because like me she has a sick ability. Its called the spew yourself town ability its the best ability to have | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
Anyway, I'm nearly caught up, so then I can go through the thread and once again completely fail to find mafia! Looking forward to it! Does anyone have someone they'd like me to give additional attention to? Maybe sicklucker and Palmar? | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
In your above post, don't you imply that you not lynching Breshke has bearing on Palmar's alignment? (ie his main scumreads are town, and you don't like this) But if I am correct in your reason for not lynching Breshke, why would you be surprised that Palmar doesn't care about this reason if he is town? | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 17 2016 11:33 rsoultin wrote: Okay, that makes more sense.pfft i'm not lynching breshke because when he's a good devil's advocate and looking at everything from all sides he pretty much invariably is town -beats with a wet noodle- palmar having different reads from me is not related to why i'm reading anyone the way i am; we're just both tone-type players and i've noticed that our reads have been converging more and more as time goes on, even if for different reasons tbf though usually when we're both town and we differ he's right >> bastard To be honest, I didn't see your scumreads on Shapelog and scott31337... yay for me. I'll take a look when I go through stuff again, but I thought that Shapelog genuinely enjoyed playing as mafia? So I'm not sure why his happiness would be forced regardless of alignment. But I'm really bad with this stuff anyway, you probably know what you're talking about. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 17 2016 11:38 rsoultin wrote: To be honest, I have no memory of scott31337's play, really.... I have no clue how to read him, but I don't remember having any trouble reading him either. It's the weirdest thing.lol >< no clue about shape tbh, just that i got a forced feel from his "jocularity" i haven't played with him that i recall, which is why i've been trying to get people to talk about him :/ i'd like to hear more from scott before i string him up, though I'm just hesitant to lynch him because I love mislynching him as scum, his play has a few things that are a bit un-emotional and the same as either alignment, it makes him a bit harder to read IMO. And yes, I'm playing entirely with meta this game, just to annoy you I wonder how long I can keep this up for. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
| ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 16 2016 06:13 rsoultin wrote: Like, right after this, The Shining vanished until I asked him a question. And then vanished again.he is the hero town doesn't deserve shining-san ^^ keep up! It feels like his will to play, his desire to be involved, stopped after he got townread. See what I'm getting at? | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 17 2016 13:47 The Shining wrote: First, I didn't call you useless He would have a point if he hadn't called it NAI beforehand, but then changed his mind because I made like 1 serious post and didnt have time to follow it up. I'm working on a reads post, believe in the shine, I'm actually planning on trying this game because I'm tired of certain people that I've been warned for cursing at constantly calling me useless ^^ How great it would be if he's town and gets carried by me. Second, if I were convinced you were scum, I'd be voting for you Third, smileys are great Fourth, please, go ahead and carry me, that would also be great Not quite as great as smileys, though Fifth, you're misrepresenting my argument, and I've already said what I think about that But it's fine, since I don't have a very strong argument anyway, please feel free to do your own thing | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
Here is the start of the discussion, if anyone is interested. I don't really know why Breshke asked this question, or what he hoped to gain from it. Breshke later clarified that he didn't get anything alignment indicative out of sicklucker's early posts. It also feels like he let Tictock's answer pass easily, without followup, when I don't feel that Tictock's answer was terribly insightful (he didn't say anything more than the minimum). I'm probably really overthinking this, but it seems a bit weird to me? To make this a meta read, lack of followup with questions was a trait of Breshke's mafia play in the Fullmetal game Anyway, I'll probably go to bed soon, I'll try to finish my re-read and figure out who is mafia tomorrow morning ish. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
I'm not suspicious of you for lack of activity, but rather being uninterested in the thread. I realize that this is a vague statement, here is how I arrived at this conclusion. 1. The Shining made a post towards sicklucker early on that seemed to show a desire to be involved 2. Rsoultin then townread The Shining 3. The Shining proceeded to vanish, and them come back to answer a question I asked of him, saying that he can actually play on Monday (contrary to his normal schedule) 4. The Shining then vanished again The Shining didn't talk about anything else after his first read on sicklucker; no more questions, not getting involved, and he didn't say when he was busy. And then, after saying that he could play and his normal schedule didn't match, he vanished without saying anything. It's not the activity that is alignment indicative at all. This is NOT a read based on activity. I get an overall impression of disinterest, notably after rsoultin townread him, and THAT is why I have this suspicion. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 17 2016 14:21 rsoultin wrote: I'm assuming that if you call someone a hero for town, that you mean that they are town?o.0 when exactly did i townread shining? Even the very worst mafia performances generally wouldn't be considered heroic for town. I..... can't possibly see how this can be in contention? What's going on? | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 17 2016 14:24 The Shining wrote: Oh.Ah that post. She said I didn't realize that SL was the hero town didn't deserve. Well, that's embarrassing. I don't know why I assumed that rsoultin's grammar was incorrect. I guess probably because incorrect grammar makes more sense with regards to the game there.... I don't even want to ask rsoultin to explain this, I just want to forget that this whole thing ever happened, haha.... I mean, I guess my previously unfounded suspicion of The Shining is now absolute garbage. Yay. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 17 2016 14:31 Tumblewood wrote: Yeah, I already made it I feel like there's some really next-level read that can be made out of this reaction, but I am not on the next level yet. Assuming that Breshke knows Palmar well enough to know that Palmar won't stop silly pushes like this, I can't possibly imagine Breshke as mafia responding to Palmar like this. It's really dumb and I wouldn't expect this from Breshke, who (like most) is a fairly calculated/cautious player as scum. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
Looking through his filter I could definitely see him being mafia this game. I guess the first thing that sticks out to me is the townread on Palmar. I obviously think this is a very accurate and insightful read, however since I'm the only person who thinks this, it doesn't make sense that scott31337 would think this way and have so little doubt over it (the amount that he's letting Palmar seemingly direct his vote and the thread is insane for the level of seriousness/investment that Palmar has shown). Second, his switch to a townread on Tumblewood feels opportunistic, "he's playing just like last game" to "maybe he did roll town this game". But it's by no means a great argument. So, yay. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
Anyway, good night. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
And I'm still not sure about Breshke being town. I feel a bit hesitant about his first question and response to Tictock, I don't feel like it was very useful or had followup. I also don't find his question to Shapelog very insightful at all, it feels like there's no point to it. And I don't feel a drive from Breshke to figure out the best lynch, though I'm not sure if that's normal from him as town. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
| ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 18 2016 02:01 Shapelog wrote: When Tumblewood says exactly the same thing (my mind is muddied), why do you scumread him for it, if you're thinking the exact same thing?Because quite honestly I don't have a fucking clue anymore. My mind is muddied. Plus You people TR me, so in the stake of my filter, i decided to leave the game for a few hours instead of "OMG YOUR SCUM TRYING TO BUDDYZ!!!!!!!!!." Prob. going to filter dive in a few mins. and post reads and push from there. Also for the sake of clarity, I'm getting closer and closer to lynching you. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
He scumread me, then when I said I was suspicious of him for not doing anything, that it's purely his fault of he gets lynched. And then all of the other reasons. ##vote Shapelog I mean, this is like a swiss cheese vote, but whatever | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
![[image loading]](https://puu.sh/m5YWM/e58ebaa953.png) On the bright side, we get to figure out rsoultin's alignment this way | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 18 2016 03:02 The Shining wrote: First, because you're not an easy lynch. Eden is the only person who thinks that you're scum, and (imo) Eden's reasoning is not that good. There's been no momentum from Palmar or rsoultin towards you at all.What are all the other reasons? I'm starting to like him for town, tbh, though it's mostly centric to me. Eden dropped a nice big post on me and he thinks Eden is town. If he were scum, I'd be an easy mislynch for him. I like how he approached the analysis on me. And his explanation of his Tumble read makes a bit of sense. Second, his Tumblewood is one of the reasons that he is mafia. I feel that the correct read on Tumblewood is clearly town because of post length. You look at his mafia game, and he provided fairly long posts. This game, his posts are short and conversational, more directly involved. This is a very distinct playstyle change, and gives a near 100% townread. I'm extremely confident in it. Shapelog said this, but wasn't very confident in it, and then switched this to a scum lean / could lynch because he completely misinterpreted Tumblewood's post, while sharing exactly the same problem (a bit lost with regards to reads) as Tumblewood did, that he was picking on in the first place. In addition, rsoultin feels that Shapelog's happiness is faked. And Shapelog is defending himself differently at different times. He went from "I can't be lynched Day 1, I have a streak of endgames going and I don't want to be mislynched on Day 1" to "if I get mislynched today, it's all my fault". | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 18 2016 03:04 Shapelog wrote: Yeah, the main thing that gives me pause is Shapelog wasn't this stupid last game when he was mafia. Maybe his inability to read things is an indicator that he is town....Bango was his name o. YOU DON"T EVEN KNOW IF I AM SCUM! You trying to push me into a lynch, then setting Rsoul up to get killed when i flip town. Not to mention you are apparently aggressive which falls in line with your scum meta. Add that vibe that from you when i read you read on eden And... Calm Shapelog, Calm. *sign* IK this OMGUS, but at this point, you are scum. ##Vote:Trfel In explanation, the diagram that I gave says that rsoultin is town if Shapelog flips town, directly contrary to what Shapelog says. And that was rather obviously a joke, anyway... | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 18 2016 03:27 Shapelog wrote: Lol?*Sigh* Kush I believed in you :/ Oh well, At this point I guess who I think should get lynch does not matter. Not changing my vote thou to a counter wagon that will just end up hammering a Town. I am just going to post reads at this point. Put my death to good use. Shapelog, if you're town, I suggest you take a 10 minute break. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 18 2016 03:34 The Shining wrote: And someone else sees it This post is weird. How do you know a counter wagon would be town? And why would you think who should be lynched doesn't matter? It always matters, especially since you said you'd be giving reads. You are saying who you should lynch won't matter. Then you're saying you'll give reads, implying they'll matter. I don't understand. If you look at the vote count, it's even more weird. The other wagons are all at basically the same vote count, he can make his own counterwagon. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 18 2016 03:43 Shapelog wrote: And there goes one possible reason to read Shapelog as town, that he wouldn't vote for survival. Cool OH HE IS A COUNTERWAGON??? ##UnvoteVote:Saltlicker | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 18 2016 03:59 GlowingBear wrote: We're basically lynching between Shapelog and sicklucker and maybe Palmar. Not much happening.Dude, catching up is exhausting. I'm on page 21 and I'll keep catching up later but I need a break. Can someone summarise what's going on right now for me? Shapelog is in the lead, I suggest you take a look at him. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 18 2016 04:07 Breshke wrote: I mean, maybe you're right. Part of the problem is that it's extremely subjective, while I personally feel that that initial question went nowhere, I can see how people would feel that it really did have a point behind it. I can also see how people wouldn't care enough to respond and say so, unfortunately.last few pages from shape seem really really scummmy. Especially this I'm not sure if he is reffering to trefel or GB here im fairly sure it's trefel but he doesn't bring it up again when he should 100% be trying to push a counter wagon especially if someone is "prob mafia". I get that he also scumreads SL but it just seemed like the easy way out and he ahsn't explained this read at all. ##Vote Shapelog Also trefel it might not be important now but how do you think that no one responds to you when you point out my early questions went nowhere and correctly idenify this as something I do as scum. Makes me feel that there is scum in people that are more familiar to me and are resigned to not lynching me. Is this a bad assumption? I think it's probably more of people just not wanting to talk about you, other than maybe Palmar, anyway. I guess it would make sense for scum to push you more than they have, assuming you are town, but I'm not yet sure what that means. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 18 2016 04:08 GlowingBear wrote: The reasoning for Palmar being mafia is that his reads are lazy and he's being bad.My vote is on Sicklucker, but can you direct me to the reasoning of why Shapelog and Palmar are Mafia? I really didn't see anything alignmrent indicative during my read-through I think that this reasoning is a bit poor, to say the least. Shapelog is mafia because he hasn't had a push or direction to his play until he became the leading wagon. Only at this point did he show an actual interest in scumreads, and he seems to be flailing wildly instead of actually figuring out who is scum. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 18 2016 04:31 GlowingBear wrote: Hm, I haven't seen any genuine insights from him. Please explain?I don't think Shapelog is the lynch for today. I've seen him droppig some genuine insights that showed fair amount of effort behind it. He could be Mafia but there are far better lynches today | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
| ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
I think kill sicklucker for being willing to kill Shapelog after earlier saying that he wanted to be safe and not kill power roles | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
Shapelog may very well be mafia, but that's for time to figure out. Not right now. I don't have much of an opinion on nooniansoong, but he has been fairly noncommittal as town. See Outlaw Mafia, for example. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 18 2016 04:59 Breshke wrote: He did?also he literally just said he didnt want to work out shape because he was an enigma, shape then claims blue and now he says he will risk it. Sl did claim blue also though Well, if both of them are telling the truth, then I have no clue what's going on. I guess probably either nooniansoong or GlowingBear? This is kinda stupid. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
| ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
This is pretty not ideal. Someone help? | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
Maybe just lynch him? | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 18 2016 05:24 Tumblewood wrote: I remember being willing to lynch him earlier. The reasons are in my filter.This feels scummy to me... Town doesn't just settle for a lynch like that, especially when there are other valid options. Basically he has no drive to lynch mafia. He went from "I'm scumreading Breshke" to "placing my vote on GlowingBear for now" without explanation. And his Tumblewood read doesn't feel natural at all. He's very uninvested and dry. The Shining's anger at being scumread felt a bit towny, maybe I'm misreading things, but I don't really think so? Damdred says that the best way to read The Shining is to look for his displays of emotion, and here those felt natural to me? I'll read his filter again, but I'd appreciate it if people would look at scott31337. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 18 2016 05:33 rsoultin wrote: I've looked at his filter and I only have one reason to think that he is mafia. The reason is that he had one very strong scum read, but then resorted to doing nothing and asking for people's cases, like he doesn't care about his earlier read. And as town, Palmar generally cares a whole lot about his early reads.nh, i can look at scott again, but palmar? Which is a pretty good argument, but other than this, Palmar seems like clear town. I'm worried that I'm just missing something. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 18 2016 05:39 Breshke wrote: YES SOMEONE SEES THE LIGHTI read scotts filter and don't understand why he is voting GB and not me Plus maybe I'm not lynching Shapelog because of his claim, but I don't really want to vote with him.... @rsoultin, in simple words, trolling Palmar is town Palmar. Surely you remember this. You may not agree, and yes it's simple, but as a general rule it's a real thing. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 18 2016 05:44 rsoultin wrote: Okay, so why isn't it that simple? My read on Palmar has been pretty good ever since probably Linux/Assassination mafia, unless I'm being selective with my memory.o.0 yeah um...no. like seriously, just no. if palmar were that easy to read i'd already have a godread on him @bresh...the only thing i could think of was that gb had a wagon on him and you and tumble didn't, but since he started the wagon it makes no sense I mean, okay, it's not quite that simple, but that's the basic idea. Can you show me a game of Palmar's Linux/Down Under level trolling where he is mafia? | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 18 2016 05:47 rsoultin wrote: If you're talking about Outlaw, which I assume you are, then I read him as mafia in that game specifically that level? dunnae...he just fooled me his last scum game though where i thought he seemed pretty town for the not give a fucks His trolling wasn't on the same level as the "interview" joke, or the three Palmars talking to each other. And his reads were more of a "standard" approach, aka giving reasons and then making reads based on those reasons. Again, the way he dropped his Breshke read makes no sense, but at the same time I don't feel very confident at all in lynching him, I'd still say he's more likely town. Given how this is gone I just want to cut losses, and scott31337 is a good lynch. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
Anyway, I really feel that scott31337 is a decent lynch for both lynching mafia and not screwing up bigtime. Palmar is #1 in the power rankings, you don't lynch him for awful reasons when the day is going like this. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 18 2016 05:54 rsoultin wrote: If Palmar is scum, he'll go down later. I don't feel like Palmar can escape this if he is scum. He should never have escaped in Outlaw anyway.nh :/ fine lol yolo...but i blame you if palmar turns out to be scum. you'll like...have to grovel at me and idk play a game with lex and myself later THE HORROR! But if he's town, like I feel is more likely, I'd really like him alive. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 18 2016 05:56 GlowingBear wrote: But why are you calling him scum is the question?Like seriously, there is no reason to call Kush town here VOTE KUSH I don't really know why he's scum. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
| ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
| ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
| ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 18 2016 06:07 Eden1892 wrote: I mean, that's not a bad reason. That's a pretty good reason. But when both of the top lynch candidates claim blue and there are six different lynch targets, I wish you would move to cut losses instead of trying to be a hero Oops. My bad reason, should anybody care, is that I'm used to Palmar caring out his early strong scum reads, and actively pushing them in the thread. There were obviously reasons to think this didn't per se mean anything this time, but it seemed good enough to consolidate under. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 18 2016 05:57 Eden1892 wrote: Eden, why didn't you share your reason or make any posts between this post and after the deadline?I switched to Palmar for bad reasons but idgaf | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 18 2016 06:14 Shapelog wrote: Given that 11 players were voted for across the day, this statement is by definition correct I guess we can assume that at least one mafia was on the lynch then? If that is true (which who knows) That would mean either, me, TT, Eden or Tumble is mafia. Oh wait, you mean the wagon. I mean, mafia does have incentive to lynch Palmar, because Palmar is a pretty good player, but assumptions like this don't serve much purpose IMO. I don't like Tictock's vote on Palmar though, I'm not convinced that he actually cared between Palmar and scott31337. Since he was strongly townreading me earlier, and his reason for lynching Palmar was that I would be mafia by association, this seems suspect to me. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
Mafia didn't care so much about the lynch, but secretly, they probably wanted Palmar lynched, because he's a player they'd probably have to night kill in the near-ish future. So mafia is probably in players who weren't directly influencing the lynch, and/or players who were not obstructing to lightly supporting the Palmar lynch. Checking read development for these things should be telling. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 18 2016 06:29 Eden1892 wrote: My bad, I screwed up my timestamps and thought you switched your vote like 10+ minutes before the deadline ><I mean you see that :57 right? My phone actually registered 2:59 when I switched vote. I thought that post might not beat the deadline... I thought it better to be certain I announced my switch pre-deadline instead of trying to explain and missing You're fine then, I guess. I really don't know about Tumblewood, the post length thing is just so strong. Anyway, Breshke and rsoultin are town. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
| ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
To be honest, that's probably even worse. If you could explain your read progression on Breshke and why you ended up voting for GlowingBear instead, that would be nice, though. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
| ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
The Shining, how's that scumread going?  | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
| ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
Tictock is town because overall, his play seems involved and has a definite direction, despite a weaker End of Day. Tumblewood is town because his posting style is much more carefree and conversational than his mafia game, and because he's putting in a lot of effort, as shown by his written notes. Breshke is town because he didn't kill Palmar, despite Palmar having a strong suspicion of him, and he's been sharing sensible thoughts. Nooniansoong is maybe mafia because of his lack of caring about the lynch (being willing to lynch Palmar while townreading him), and his GlowingBear read doesn't feel genuine. The Shining is maybe mafia because he can't possibly think that Tumblewood is mafia after those pictures that Tumblewood posted. Eden1892 is town because he got angry early on in a really towny way. Rsoultin is town because she didn't lynch Palmar, despite having plenty of justification to do so, and for a relatively large post count, despite saying she'd be lazy. Any comments are more than welcome. I'm fairly confident in the town reads, not so confident on the scum reads, largely no opinion on people not on the list. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
The Shining, I did meta read you a bit, but in this case the off-wagon "push" for Tumblewood feels more important. And I know that my scum reads aren't the best I'll be pretty happy if one is correct.The difference between GlowingBear and The Shining is that GlowingBear's push makes some sense, while The Shining's doesn't, GlowingBear seemed to care about it while The Shining didn't, and The Shining had more opportunities to be inspiring while I'm not really sure what he's done this game, other than his Tumblewood suspicion. The only real reason I have to townread The Shining is meta, based on both post length (shorter posts = town) and his anger at being scumread. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
Can you please explain your scumread on Tumblewood again? Like, why did you initially read him as mafia? I've looked through your filter and I'm still having trouble understanding this, sorry. I'm not seeing what your argument is. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 18 2016 12:40 The Shining wrote: Hrmph, fine, you're probably town So why didn't you vote Scott over GB? Did you already go over this? Doesn't mean I have to like it, though + Show Spoiler + Not that I don't like you, just that I would like to know who is mafia so I can look really impressive, is all | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 18 2016 13:11 The Shining wrote: I'll take a look at those things later. Thanks for answering.Tldr: I found his first unexplained reads post weird. I like explanations. He accused Shapelog of meta reading him off of one game and that it was bad, but then he does the same thing to Shape before the blue claim. He has Palmar on a bad d1 lynch list but then lynches Palmar. He accused me of not existing d1 but then managed to disappear himself for a while. I'll be honest, though, this read is losing a bit of steam after rereading those notes. His scum list is a bit funky, though, since I don't think GB and SL can be scum together here Anyway, I'm really liking that point that you brought up about nooniansoong. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
Don't get this wrong, you know I'll actually listen to you this time... Also, I didn't change my read on Tumblewood based on the pictures. Why do GlowingBear and Tumblewood being town make you think that scott31337 is town? I don't get it. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
Anyway, ignoring feelings of paranoia.... I thought of something else about Scott. On phone, about to sleep but here goes. If I remember this wrong then this argument is invalid Scott came back and said wagons town vs town, and said that scum is going to lynch him next However, if it's town vs town, the first thing I would blame is town for being bad and making it town vs town. It's generally town vs scum when scum is actually making the ml happen Thks makes sxotts post seem a bit faked Scott being scum doesn't make tko much sense wktb a few of my other trs like rsoultin is saying so I'm not sure which one is right | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 18 2016 16:14 Tictock wrote: The reasons for voting Shapelog are in my filter both before and after the vote. I believe that a few posts later, I gave a (rather poor) summary. Here you go, but I discussed Shapelog a fairly large amount in other places as well.I think I pointed this post out earlier when I was skimming, but this is really wierd. Trfel can you explain to me what you were thinking behind this vote on Shape? | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
| ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 19 2016 00:40 Trfel wrote: Wait, I misread.Nooniansoong, why were you so insistent on voting for GlowingBear over scott31337? Change question to, why were you townreading scott31337? I don't see this, given that he was in your list of "most suspicious people". | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
| ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 19 2016 01:05 Trfel wrote: Meh, I need to pay more attention.I really wish I hadn't brought up the nooniansoong brag lists as a reason for a townread last game. I don't feel like I can use it this game Translation of the above post is: I'm having trouble reading nooniansoong, please help me. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
But the more you post the more you make me think you aren't. Just don't talk about blues for another 15 minutes, cool? | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
Aside from the vote on Palmar, Tumblewood play is a textbook case of new town imo. Very genuine and ot seems like he is really thinking about the game, plus a large amount of effort. The icing on the cake is that his play is so different from last game. What am I missing? | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
Shape shut up | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
| ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
| ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
First, Shapelog, congratulations on the successful track, but if this happens again, it's generally best to wait to reveal blue actions. Saying "I have awesome information to be shared later in this day that will determine the lynch" is sufficient. Nooniansoong, I would have been happy to die because there are/were better players than me who are town, because I don't know who mafia is, and for mafia to kill me, it reveals a lot of information. Notably, that would make players like Eden and rsoultin far more suspect. Anyway, I don't have any great reads, but they were clearly laid out over the course of the night phase. I stand by my Tumblewood read, and for those who still scumread him, I'd like them to (once again) explain why he is mafia (just one person doing this is fine). I should probably take a look at The Shining again, even though I do think he is town, the fact that Eden died makes him worth a second look. And please, let the vigilante decide for themselves whether or not they should claim. I like to think that people have enough competence to determine this for themselves. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 19 2016 06:28 Breshke wrote: I think that the point about claiming, while it is a contradiction, is secondary to the overall picture of Tumblewood's play.Trefel did you see my post on tumble/what do you think? I do find the read switch on Palmar quite suspicious, but here's the thing. If you look at most people's play as mafia, Tumblewood's included (at least, those people who actually try), their filter is largely consistent. They'll scumread someone and keep scumreading that person, and if they start pushing someone else, they'll say why. The way that Tumblewood goes about that read switch in such a careless manner makes me hesitate to scumread him for it, give how deliberate he was with his votes last game. This makes the Palmar switch feel less relevant given Tumblewood's play as a whole. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
It's not just that Tumblewood switched to Palmar, it's the way that he did it that makes it feel more like a throw-away. He also could have probably just sat on Shapelog and pretended to AFK or something. Like, if I'm mafia and I'm going to vote on a town vs town lynch that I don't care about, I'll be like "Palmar is mafia because he hasn't been doing things or given any explanations for his reads". Which is a lot better than "I can't stand not lynching Palmar". Which one did Tumblewood go with? If you don't get the newbie trends, and you don't get the meta, then whatever. Tell me when the last time was that you saw mafia, especially newbie mafia, try something as original and time-consuming as written read lists like that? It doesn't happen. Mafia, especially newbie mafia, almost always go their own way. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 19 2016 07:05 Shapelog wrote: It's not a matter of estimation. It's a matter of him seeming to be extremely obvious town...DO not underestimate Tumble, as either alignment. Guy is pretty good Tbh as scum and prob. great as town. I don't have any great lynch targets Nooniansoong seems much more involved now, I need to look through later to see if his play has direction or if it's just commenting, but for now I'm not feeling as comfortable scumreading him I guess. I wish I knew what his play would look like as mafia given his new playstyle.I need to look more at Tictock and The Shining, I feel that both are town, but they could use a second look. And I should probably read rsoultin's filter at some point, bleh. Rsoultin is probably mafia because I don't think that she is, which tends to only happen when she is mafia and never when she is town, which is pretty dumb, but whatever. I still can really see scott31337 being mafia here, as well as maybe GlowingBear. They've both felt very uninvolved and distant lately. I would think that the images would make GlowingBear town, but he actually hasn't been pushing anything or making any reads. Since he (presumably) hasn't dove filters yet, this is quite suspicious to me. I had some reasons to be suspicious of scott31337 before, perhaps the biggest reasons I am not sure that he is mafia is because I remember accusing him of having no direction before when I was mafia to mislynch him (which is something I find suspicious about his play now) and that the votes don't really feel like a town vs scum wagon.... Anyway, I have an exam in a bit less than two hours, and then lots of homework due Friday, so I doubt I can do much serious analysis until after that. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
If he's not town, it will be clear soon enough. There is next to zero chance that he survives this game if he is mafia, there are way too many things that would need to go perfectly for him, as well as a ton of tremendous mistakes from town. I highly suggest not worrying too much about him at this time. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
| ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
Assumptions: GlowingBear and Shapelog are both town (claimed blues) scott31337 is mafia The purpose of this simplified vote count analysis is to see how much sense scott31337 makes as mafia, judging by the events including and after the start of the wagon on him. 30 Minutes to EoD Palmar (3): sicklucker, Shapelog, rsoultin sicklucker (2): Tictock, GlowingBear GlowingBear (2): scott31337, nooniansoong scott31337 (1): Trfel Breshke (1): Palmar Shapelog (1): Tumblewood The Shining (1): Eden1892 Not Voting (2): The Shining, Breshke I have an exam soon, so I'm not going to color in all of the names, but the point is that the three leading wagons are all town. So, mafia probably hasn't had to do much at this point. 15 Minutes to EoD Palmar (3): sicklucker, Shapelog, rsoultin sicklucker (2): Tictock, GlowingBear GlowingBear (2): scott31337, nooniansoong scott31337 (2): Trfel, Breshke Breshke (1): Palmar Shapelog (1): Tumblewood The Shining (1): Eden1892 Not Voting (1): The Shining Immediately after this, The Shining votes for Tumblewood, and sicklucker switches to Tumblewood as well, but then switches back to Palmar. Tictock switches his vote to Palmar, which seems suspect. Then GlowingBear votes for nooniansoong. This suggests that if scott31337 is mafia (going to stop stating this assumption from here on out), The Shining is town, and Tictock is likely mafia. Rsoultin's vote switch changes the vote count from 4 to 2 to 3 each, with five minutes left to go to the deadline. I don't think that this vote makes rsoultin town, even if scott31337 is scum. After rsoultin switches votes, she doesn't seem so confident in Palmar being town, but then criticizes GlowingBear and The Shining for what they ought to be doing with their votes, despite seemingly not having her own opinion? Note, regardless of scott31337's alignment, rsoultin's posts in the last five minutes seem strange. Then Eden and Tumblewood and scott31337 come in and vote. And I'm going to be late for my exam so I'll finish this analysis later T.T Sorry about that. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
| ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
I have actually no idea what is going on at all. If someone has something important, please yell at me to make sure I see it. Anyway, we're saying that mafia decided to roleblock Shapelog and then kill sicklucker? Presumably because they thought sicklucker was blue? And The Shining is the vigilante and shot Eden? Going with that for now, I guess, even if it makes no sense and I don't like it. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 19 2016 12:37 rsoultin wrote: I guess you're right, if Shapelog is mafia, that was one really darn quick plan. So he's town. No scum vig, either. Meh, whatever.it sounds retarded \o/ therefore we're looking for retarded scum! more seriously, though, shape's behavior around day start makes me want to call him town and dig my heels in, so the only other explanation is shining is scum ccing gb's fake claim thinking it's true, and that the real vig for some reason doesn't feel the need to cc himself... Town Shapelog Breshke The Shining Town Lean Tictock Tumblewood rsoultin Mafia Lean nooniansoong? scott31337? GlowingBear? Does anyone have any criticisms or doubts about Breshke being town? I'd like to say he's town and never look back, is anyone concerned that this is premature? Also, it's pretty incredible that the POE list is so small already.... I guess that's what blue claims do for you. Anyway, I believe Tictock had some questions for me regarding my Tumblewood read? I've said all that I have to say about it, I really do think that he is town because that is by far the simplest explanation, and anything else is pure paranoia. Oh, and Tictock, I feel that your vote is suspicious because "I wanted to lynch Palmar because if he is scum, Trfel is scum too" feels like a really horrible reason to me. I guess I can see it coming from town, but it feels so fabricated, and a bit unrefined. I guess I thought it was widely acknowledged that lynching for information is not good, which is largely what this reason came down to, and I struggle a bit to see this come from experienced town. Back to my voting analysis, yay. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 19 2016 12:56 rsoultin wrote: Since you still seem to be here, I disagree with your analysis that mafia is stupid with regards to the night actions.voting scott for info cause voting for info is bad and i sooooo want to be a baddie I see it more like mafia who is more worried about power roles, thought that Shapelog and sicklucker were both power roles, and were worried about potential medic save on Shapelog (even if sicklucker is the medic). | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 19 2016 13:01 Tictock wrote: Hm, okay. Then, why did you vote for Palmar?Eh I think your stretching what happend if you think I voted Palmar kus I thought it would give info about your alignment. I made that comment more as an afterthought than as a reason why I voted Palmar. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
Am I being stupid and wasting my time? The main reason is that I feel like the way you approached the last 45 ish minutes of Day 1 feels very mafia motivated. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + On February 19 2016 08:47 Trfel wrote: To make this a bit simpler for myself, here's the vote count after rsoultin switched.Simplified Vote Count Analysis Assumptions: GlowingBear and Shapelog are both town (claimed blues) scott31337 is mafia The purpose of this simplified vote count analysis is to see how much sense scott31337 makes as mafia, judging by the events including and after the start of the wagon on him. 30 Minutes to EoD Palmar (3): sicklucker, Shapelog, rsoultin sicklucker (2): Tictock, GlowingBear GlowingBear (2): scott31337, nooniansoong scott31337 (1): Trfel Breshke (1): Palmar Shapelog (1): Tumblewood The Shining (1): Eden1892 Not Voting (2): The Shining, Breshke I have an exam soon, so I'm not going to color in all of the names, but the point is that the three leading wagons are all town. So, mafia probably hasn't had to do much at this point. 15 Minutes to EoD Palmar (3): sicklucker, Shapelog, rsoultin sicklucker (2): Tictock, GlowingBear GlowingBear (2): scott31337, nooniansoong scott31337 (2): Trfel, Breshke Breshke (1): Palmar Shapelog (1): Tumblewood The Shining (1): Eden1892 Not Voting (1): The Shining Immediately after this, The Shining votes for Tumblewood, and sicklucker switches to Tumblewood as well, but then switches back to Palmar. Tictock switches his vote to Palmar, which seems suspect. Then GlowingBear votes for nooniansoong. This suggests that if scott31337 is mafia (going to stop stating this assumption from here on out), The Shining is town, and Tictock is likely mafia. Rsoultin's vote switch changes the vote count from 4 to 2 to 3 each, with five minutes left to go to the deadline. I don't think that this vote makes rsoultin town, even if scott31337 is scum. After rsoultin switches votes, she doesn't seem so confident in Palmar being town, but then criticizes GlowingBear and The Shining for what they ought to be doing with their votes, despite seemingly not having her own opinion? Note, regardless of scott31337's alignment, rsoultin's posts in the last five minutes seem strange. Then Eden and Tumblewood and scott31337 come in and vote. And I'm going to be late for my exam so I'll finish this analysis later T.T Sorry about that. Vote Count ~5 minutes to EoD Palmar (3): sicklucker, Shapelog, Tictock scott31337 (3): Trfel, Breshke, rsoultin GlowingBear (2): scott31337, nooniansoong Breshke (1): Palmar Shapelog (1): Tumblewood The Shining (1): Eden1892 Tumblewood (1): The Shining nooniansoong (1): GlowingBear So if we're assuming that scott31337 is mafia, it's him and two others. Scott31337 wasn't there, so he couldn't vote to save himself. This makes it harder for mafia to defend him, and mafia would be extremely worried about him being lynched here. This is in spoilers, so I don't have to make it pretty, if you're reading this, you're asking for it XD I decided to read from 42 minutes before the lynch, where I started considering lynching scott31337 (the earliest possible start of this wagon). Assumptions are that scott31337 is mafia, and both Shapelog and The Shining are town. On February 18 2016 05:22 rsoultin wrote: And what about Palmar?eh could lynch him, too, tbh...but the thing is he's a beast to have in the game after d1 if he's town and i can see him just not having the time here. i'm horribad at catching him when he's scum though so -shrugs- Nooniansoong was gone the entire time. If nooniansoong is scum with scott31337, that leaves two of the three scum team (at least) not present, and not able to defend scott31337. This means that it's very possible that scott31337 is scum and there was actually minimal-no scum presence to move the lynch. Tumblewood's aggression towards my suggestion to lynch scott31337 seems noteworthy. The way that rsoultin suddenly swings towards being willing to lynch The Shining, coincidentally right after Eden comes in trying to lynch The Shining, feels a bit opportunistic. Reading through the thread, there's a LOT more influence for the push onto scott31337 in the last 30 minutes of the day than it seems like from the voting thread. And rsoultin also makes plenty of sense with scott31337 as mafia. At this point, I can actually see basically anyone being mafia with scott31337. For example, let's imagine mafia is scott31337, GlowingBear, and rsoultin. Rsoultin was looking for lynches other than scott31337 all day, eventually resorting to a bus with five minutes left. GlowingBear said that he's willing to lynch Palmar, ended up pushing nooniansoong, and completely avoided the scott31337 wagon. With scott31337 being afk, I can potentially see this coming from a mafia team. Rsoultin is fairly bus-happy, and she's in a relatively good spot as mafia, and mafia would probably want someone to bus here, just in case. GlowingBear doesn't even vote until 6 minutes before End of Day, at which point he's mostly committed to the nooniansoong push, but as mafia, he always had a chance to switch votes for the reason being that nooniansoong wasn't going to be lynched and he already said he was fine with Palmar. Basically, this makes sense. Conclusion: Townreading scott31337 due to the voting patterns at End of Day 1 is incorrect. There are many possibilities that result in End of Day playing out as it did with scott31337 being mafia. This post does not scumread anyone necessarily, this is largely based on vote timing alone. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 19 2016 13:29 Tictock wrote: Tictock, I understand what you're saying, and maybe you're right. I've thought about it a lot, and I still feel that Tumblewood is town. He hasn't posted in a while, I'm going to worry about other things now until either he posts more or it's closer to the deadline, because I have nothing new to say.As for your townread on Tumble I think you are putting way too much emphasis on meta for a player you have one game to look at. You say his dramatic posting style change probably means he's town, but I have to think he might do that as scum as well. Especially given that Shape was a scummate in his last game but is clearly town here. I have issues with the way he pushed Shape yesturday. He basically said what I just told you to shape about trying to read him, then said Shape was playing a lot like he did as scum in the last game and voted him. I also thought his vote onto Palmar was pretty suspect since Palmar had been a "Bad lynch" in an earlier post. When the wagon on Shape fell apart he just settled with Palmar, or more accurately he denounced all the other wagons. It doesn't add up. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 19 2016 13:34 rsoultin wrote: You didn't want to lynch The Shining because he's really good later on.well seeing as that's impossible, maybe you should tell me what you don't understand But you were willing to lynch Palmar? Then as soon as Eden came back in and said he wanted to lynch The Shining, you suddenly produced a reason to be okay with lynching The Shining. And decided that despite wanting to lynch scott31337 earlier, you didn't want to lynch him because he didn't answer your questions (huh?) Then you switched from Palmar to scott31337, the main reason seeming to be trusting my read on Palmar? Which led you to talk to nooniansoong and GlowingBear in ALL CAPS telling them that wasted voting is stupid. For GlowingBear, you hinted (while using all caps) that he should vote to save Palmar, without actually telling him to save Palmar? And all this time, you don't have your own reason to townread Palmar? I really don't get it. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
It seems like I'll have to keep working on this. Just, if you're mafia and you push your filter over 15 pages so I can't read it, then you're evil. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
It'll just come out exactly like I go into it thinking. Anyway, I'm pretty confident in Tictock being town, because he genuinely feels like he's trying to solve the game and he's been sharing good thoughts (one example being his vote analysis 21 minutes after EoD, which is an unnatural time for mafia to be providing critical thinking). In addition, his posts have felt quite free; looking through Tictock's mafia games, he feels more structured as mafia than I'm seeing in this game. I think I remember people being suspicious of Tictock, but I'm lazy, why? I get the Palmar vote being suspicious, I guess, but what else? | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
If I'm set with my townreads of Tictock and Breshke, which I think I am (please, please say if you are in doubt about these players! Write it in bold and red if you need to get my attention that way! Say my name, that helps, I'm bad at reading!), then there are three mafia in the following five: Tumblewood nooniansoong scott31337 rsoultin GlowingBear And the problem arises in that I'm getting some town feels from four of them (all but scott31337). Okay, hm, maybe not GlowingBear either, actually, though the fake vigilante claim feels a bit weird from mafia, but how strongly.... Currently leaning towards scott31337 and GlowingBear being mafia, but really I'm not sure because both of those reads feel like a stretch already | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
Eden listed Tictock as obvious town, Shapelog also listed Tictock as confidently town. Were there any other notable EoD list posts I should be paying attention to? And I didn't feel a lack of scumreads from Tictock, he had a push on sicklucker and while he was gone until about an hour before EoD1, he's been systematically figuring things out and developing scum reads since. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
scott31337 nooniansoong GlowingBear rsoultin 1 mislynch remaining. Lynch nooniansoong last? Feels way too easy though. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
| ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
First, it seems like everyone at this point is scumreading both Scott and GB. I can't see this being right, there's no way it's this easy. Second, if nooniansoong or rsoultin is mafia, they're playing quite well. I have a difficult time seeing this while their team is being this lazy and inactive. I don't know | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
| ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
| ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
His push on nooniansoong is full of logical inconsistencies and doesn't show a town mindset. His explanation for his behavior at End of Day doesn't quite make sense, and his play fits mafia motivation throughout. Since the lynch, he hasn't actually contributed anything. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 20 2016 04:49 The Shining wrote: My vote count analyses were not to determine the alignments of people, but rather to try and figure out Scott's alignment. IE does Scott make sense as mafia given the votes. And Tictock does make sense with Scott as mafia.Wait. Trfel, what happened between your vca implying TT was likely mafia to believing hes town and asking if others believe you? However, I'm not quite so sure about TT being town or Scott being mafia. But I am getting pretty confident in rsoultin being mafia, so there. I don't think it's something I'll be able to explain so hopefully rsoultin alignment will become obvious in time one way or another. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
I mean you can be as random as you like but it won't make me townread you. I still think that GB is mafia and scott really may not be, idk. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
| ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
Glad to finally be back at a computer so I can vote for him. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 21 2016 01:00 GlowingBear wrote: GlowingBear, who should I vote for if not you, and why?I'd love to counter argue this, but it seems I'm Mafia for not getting angry and getting angry at the same time | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
GlowingBear (3): The Shining, nooniansoong, Trfel scott31337 (2): rsoultin, Breshke Tumblewood (1): The Shining (0): Not Voting (4): Shapelog, Tumblewood, scott31337, GlowingBear Currently, GlowingBear is set to be lynched with 3 votes. Voting ends at 16:00 EST today, in . | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
[not voting 5 hours to deadline next day] GlowingBear: How does everyone think that I'm scum? Just because I was posting MS Paint pictures doesn't mean I haven't been contributing! Look, I think these people are scum! [still not voting] I do prefer lynching GlowingBear over scott31337, because scott31337 can be hard to read and his play might just be a result of lack of activity. Maybe. Doubtful. But I'm far more confident in GlowingBear being mafia, because of how he isn't pushing anything and is very strongly playing to survive. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 21 2016 01:41 rsoultin wrote: ....... But, you're voting for scott31337 still?:/ you can't really think that gb is town here? | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 21 2016 01:50 rsoultin wrote: I was just wondering.uh huh and i'm incapable of changing my vote truffle 10/10 You said that you wanted to lynch scott31337 for information, then here you are saying that GlowingBear is definitely mafia and pseudo-pushing him (IMO the level you were pushing him is subjective, for the purposes of this it doesn't matter). But you weren't voting for him. I guess it's not obviously alignment indicative, but it doesn't feel right. I'll worry about this later. Anyway, rsoultin, I have been lazy and I admit it. I only read about half of your filter, and not even very carefully. All I know is that GlowingBear is mafia So after today I'll have time to figure out everything else.Also, I'm leaving semi soon-ish and not coming back until probably after the deadline So, GlowingBear, if you'd like me to not vote for you, you need to do something very towny in the next 10 minutes or so. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
| ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
GlowingBear was mislynched Day 1 in the above game. There, his filter feels much more useful; while he gave the same complaints about not knowing why he was being lynched and the lynch being stupid, he was also commenting and giving reads whenever he saw something to comment on. Here, it's seemed that GlowingBear's reads are purely by request instead of actually pushing things with force. However, he did vote for The Shining after The Shining counterclaimed him. And this feels weird from mafia. If GlowingBear is mafia, presumably he knows that The Shining is actually the vigilante once he claims (unless they're mafia together, and we aren't going there because then someone is being rather dumb). It's possible that GlowingBear would do this as mafia, but it doesn't feel so likely. Thoughts? | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 21 2016 02:50 nooniansoong wrote: If something doesn't make sense from scum or town, it generally means that they messed up, regardless of alignment.Why would he vote shining as town?? He knows he's not the vig as town. And I feel that scum is more careful and less original, therefore they mess up less. But given GlowingBear's play as a whole, and this being one single thing, I think I still want to lynch GlowingBear. It kinda sucks because of the pre-game excuse, but meh | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
I think that GlowingBear's mafia winrate is like 90% or something. Don't see how we can win against that. Anyway, good job I'll read what actually happened later. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
But whatever. I doubt I'll have time to do much with this game tonight, things are busy | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
So meh. I'll just accept rsoultin as town for now at least.Rsoultin, do you not agree with my townread of Tumblewood based on his play being dramatically different and the written stuff? Am I being incorrect in the strength I'm giving this read? | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 22 2016 03:25 nooniansoong wrote: I didn't read the last ~5 pages of EoD yet, I might have missed something. But I do remember that in Outlaw mafia, GlowingBear's behavior as he was getting lynched strongly implicated his scum buddy Alakaslam, I feel that GlowingBear is the type of player to try and avoid doing the same things.Specifically how gb scumread her for changing her opinion then made a last ditch attempt to buddy her. It was more of how rsoultin was scumreading GlowingBear for very valid reasons, but then stopped because of GlowingBear's MSPaint pictures and voted for scott31337 for information. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
And nooniansoong, I'm almost positive that rsoultin did reverse her read on GlowingBear primarily for his trolling (see post here, and the one after). | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
And he's actually been here the entire time, too, basically.... Just never actually did anything.But the things he has actually done aren't completely horrible? Mostly just because there's not much there to judge, but I kinda hate it. If scott31337 is town, he's ideal lynchbait But GlowingBear didn't push him....I just feel like he has to be scum, but I feel so uncomfortable voting for him.... Meh. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
So for now I'm at Tictock, Tumblewood, and scott31337, two of which are scum? Cool, I guess? I hate POE but I can't see how it isn't scott here? | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
| ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
| ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 22 2016 13:16 rsoultin wrote: The only reason I have at the moment to potentially scumread nooniansoong would be that his reads are too good for him to be town.given his d1 i wouldn't have said so, but i'll look back through all the filters tomorrow, too lol >< including yours! muahaha (just so i can be fairly certain of my townreads and make sure i'm not calling someone town too easily) noon is prob my least confident, but tbf he's also the one i'm least familiar with and that's why But I'm thinking that this is really really stupid. So, this aside, if he's scum, he's playing a really incredible game and at this point I think I'm more sure of him than Breshke, though Breshke is still probably town. Tictock, do you mind explaining why you felt that Palmar's filter was worse than scott's on Day 1? I'd characterize scott's filter as simply not really being present, and Palmar's filter more of trolling/minimal explanations for reads. To me, this makes Palmar's filter feel more useful (if you ignore the useless posts, I felt that Palmar still had more content). I'm assuming you disagree, or are you thinking about it differently, or what? | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 22 2016 13:27 rsoultin wrote: No, nooniansoong is a terrible player who can never have his reads correct lol >< i've seen this thing about him lately in the games i've been hosting, but actually noon's been playing some pretty good games here latel...so yeah i wouldn't put too much weight on that well, i'll take another look at bresh...i'll be honest here and admit that though i noticed he was largely absent for at least the latter half of d2, i've kinda not been reading him too closely ever since i townread him earlier I know, which is why I said it was a really stupid reason and I'm currently giving it exactly zero weight. The point I tried to convey was that I've played in most of the games with the "new style" nooniansoong and I that's the best reason I have to scumread him, and it's complete garbage. Plus he deserves a dig or two for last game (okay not really but I'll pretend) | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 22 2016 13:31 rsoultin wrote: So when we lynch scott and Tictock and they're both mafia and Tumblewood is town, do you admit that my meta reads aren't completely terrible any more?lol i was pretty sure you were joking but it can sometimes be hard to tell with you >> | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
Anyway, I remembered a meta thing that makes me very comfortable lynching scott here. Yeah, okay, we probably don't need more reasoning to lynch scott, but whatever. In that game where I was mafia and mislynched scott, whatever it was called, scott got somewhat emotionally involved and became sure that I was scum and was calling for my lynch after he died. Even when he was mislynched Day 1, he was invested in the game in a way more than he's been across all of this game combined. Voting for scott. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
| ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 22 2016 13:44 rsoultin wrote: pssstokay, yeah, i see where you're coming from lol >< just not really sure what we're supposed to get from it? like, if it's just scott and tumble here maybe they're having trouble finding a townie to push cause no thread pull/presence, but you'd think they'd either try something anyway or just buss -shrugs- idk Tumblewood isn't mafia I forget why but he isn't My early townreads are almost never wrong. Remember PepperMintTea? Kuragari42? DoYouHas? I'll figure out why he is town later, but he's town.Next question, why is Tictock townreading scott31337? I think I know the answer... | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 22 2016 13:46 rsoultin wrote: But when they're correct?lol >< shhhh pre-flipped associates are baaaaad truffle wuffle Okay, you're right, I should stop being a jerk. And no, I'm nowhere near as confident as I'm pretending to be, but I'm finding it quite fun to taunt you Seriously though, let me catch up on the thread (1 page to go) then I'll go through their filters and make up some reasons to fit my pre-made conclusions. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 22 2016 14:00 Tictock wrote: I believe that you are saying my point exactly, so I'm not sure what you're saying?This doesn't look so invested to me... (no follow up for like 12 hours) Lies = Probably mafia Also, if I may, weren't you townreading scott31337? And, if I still may, please explain why Breshke's post makes him mafia? | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
| ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
might not be able to do much in the next few days depending on how sick but maybe I'll be on all the time if I'm still well enough to playSorry | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
| ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
Day 1, he provided this case to townread GlowingBear based on GlowingBear's last few scum and town games, but then he discounted this read because his read on GlowingBear is bad and because he wasn't sure. Then on Day 2, he continually pushed Tumblewood and kept insisting that Tumblewood is mafia, but ended up voting for GlowingBear who he wasn't really sure about instead of Tumblewood. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
| ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
| ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
I'm town and The Shining is town. Two mafia in the following: Tictock Tumblewood Breshke nooniansoong rsoultin I should probably look through all of them at this point And no more stupid associations. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 24 2016 06:26 rsoultin wrote: Works for me. Even though I'm mostly feeling better, I'm confined to my room for the next ~30 hours, not like I have anywhere else to go i really can't be around 'till later...just checked in to see the flip :/ break and compare notes tonight? Who knows, I might actually try and reread the whole game...Anyway, I guess I don't really know much now, so asking for questions/discussion was a bit premature. I'll answer/talk about stuff later, though. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
If anyone wants to talk, or has people they'd prefer I looked at sooner, just let me know. I'll probably not post my analysis until I'm done with everything unless people are interested in discussing stuff. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 24 2016 08:24 nooniansoong wrote: Not just the meta, also normal scum/mafia traits. Tumblewood's filter feels very open and honest. He feels like a player being direct with his thoughts and approach to the game.@Trfel what's up with your tumble read? Is it totally based on 1 game's meta? However, I don't like his approach to Day 1 and have one key question to Tumblewood, which will hopefully help me to place the perspective of his Day 1. @Tumblewood: Why did you have Palmar as a scum lean in this post? | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
1. At the start of the game, you said that you found sicklucker's posts interesting. However, you didn't follow up by asking any questions for him or working on your read on him until the night before the deadline, where you finally looked at his filter. If his play was so interesting, why this delay? 2. What happened to your suspicion of Shapelog on Day 1? This post doesn't show it, despite you showing suspicions of Shapelog not long before. 3. I'm having a lot of trouble understanding the thought process behind your tinfoil post. Before this post, you were thinking that scott31337 was town because of the spread vote count. So, you went into the tinfoil post with the assumption that scott31337 is scum, right? And came out with the conclusion that scott31337, Tumblewood, and nooniansoong is a sensible scum team. So, what I don't get is, why do you go with this assumption and vote for Tumblewood, if you had reason to believe that scott31337 is town and never showed why this is wrong? And why vote for Tumblewood and not scott31337 to begin with? | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 24 2016 10:53 Tictock wrote: Oh hey, nice timing What magic are you using for those Kush? and do you really think that's the best way to guage people's alignments? | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 24 2016 11:27 Breshke wrote: I don't know. I guess I can try to read your filter before the end of the night, will probably save nooniansoong and rsoultin for later (yay procrastination!).Could people please tell me what they are currently reading me as Tictock, thanks a bunch for answering my questions, I'll look through some stuff. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 17 2016 15:52 Tictock wrote: What happened to this?This is actually a really good point. I thought that tinfoil was off, but I was thinking more because it was silly to keep talking about the miller stuff when nobody claimed. Also if Eden was mafia I'd imagine he would have just claimed Miller himself and let us sort out that they are in fact aware. + Show Spoiler + ok actually I have no idea if Eden would do that as scum (never played with the guy/gal before), but I'm pretty sure I would have Ugh, I didn't want to have to go look at Shapes mafia filter, but I'm getting the feeling I may need to. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
Maybe my analysis stinks, but bleh. I can see Tictock's play from a town perspective and I don't have any great reasons to think otherwise. Mostly just the association with GlowingBear and a potential argument that he's following instead of leading? Which are valid arguments, but feel like I'm stretching. Meh, I'll look into Breshke. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 24 2016 11:52 Tictock wrote: At the moment, you being mafia is the only solution I can see.Are you just trying to hurt my feelings? Or is this because it would make the game easier? When have I ever lead a game besides the final day in PYP? + Show Spoiler + Side note: That was also the only game I got GB's alignment correct + Show Spoiler + 2 days after he had died+ Show Spoiler + ... After I found the actual scumteam So yeah, I really have no idea who is mafia... May very well be Breshke, but I thought I had good reason to townread both nooniansoong and rsoultin? Maybe moreso nooniansoong than rsoultin? Either way, for me this is rapidly turning into a "who's less towny" game than a "who is scum" game and that's never ever a winning strategy | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 24 2016 12:08 Breshke wrote: I don't know, I guess maybe we should ask.Does anyone know if we can no lynch? If we are, that would probably be a really good play, since we only have one confirmed town and everyone else is questionable. I'm just going to go ahead and drop this now. It's not necessary to read, as it's rather long winded, but here's my thoughts atm. Tumblewood + Show Spoiler + Several of Tumblewood's posts feel very genuine. On February 16 2016 15:46 Tumblewood wrote: This D1 sucks. Nothing very significant has happened except Trfel and Eden arguing and getting nowhere, except for all that nice town cred people are building for themselves. On February 17 2016 09:23 Tumblewood wrote: Trying to move the game forward, but most people don't even have a page of filter to use. It's hard to town/scum read anyone besides Trfel and Eden. Really I'm just concerned that scum will win because town lacks information and doesn't seek any. On February 17 2016 15:12 Tumblewood wrote: No one's thoughts feel coherent, which means that my thoughts probably aren't coherent, so it's time for me to get some sleep. See you all in 8-9 hours. However, Tumblewood doesn't go out of his way to provide his own thoughts. It feels weird that Tumblewood is complaining about the thread activity and says he doesn't have reads, and then when asked, says that he "only" has real insight on eight people. This makes sense from town if Tumblewood is generally cautious with his reads and only shares things he is certain of (note that if Tumblewood is town, this is his first game as town). Basically, if Tumblewood is town, I expect to see a lot of confidence in his reads (at least the ones that he is clear about) going forward. I also expect him to be hesitant to share weaker reads, or at least clear about which reads he's not so sure about. Tumblewood does say that Palmar could be scum as easily as town in post 310, and has him as a scum lean in post 385. Palmar made one post in between: On February 17 2016 08:12 Palmar wrote: So I expect Tumblewood's explanation of this read change to be related to this post, or implications because of this post.It's unfortunate that I don't want to post right now. I bet that's not very helpful of me. It does feel like Tumblewood generated his reads list out of nowhere, he didn't explain them at all. And there's minimal-no followup on sicklucker, his primary scumread. Tumblewood's read reversal on Palmar to "bad lynch" feels somewhat weird, but this does make sense. Tumblewood's top lynches Day 1 were sicklucker and Shapelog, which makes sense given his progression on both of them. However, his push on Shapelog was potentially opportunistic. Tumblewood left Shapelog as a null in his list post, and then later started comparing Shapelog's play to his scum play. I'm not sure if this is opportunistic or has justification, this would require more energy to check, so I'll wait until later to see if this is necessary. Tumblewood ends up voting for Palmar because he can't see any other wagon being lynched over Palmar. Which doesn't really make much sense. But it was town vs town. Reserving judgement on this for now. Tumblewood's written reads end up with Shapelog, sicklucker, and GlowingBear as the scum list. I really don't feel that mafia would be pushing Shapelog here? Shapelog claimed blue, and I'd expect people in the mafia QT to be reasonably sure that Shapelog is blue (they roleblocked him, after all), this paranoia feels more towny. The read on GlowingBear also feels early and genuine; how much does he actually push this on Day 2, though? Tumblewood later explains his vote on Palmar as an attempt to not be a policy lynch on a low-activity player. Hrm. Still reserving judgement, this is a difficult point for me to think through. Tumblewood barely played at all on Day 2... ended up being the last vote on GlowingBear. Day 1 ended on the 17th, Day 2 is 18th-20th. All that Tumblewood really did in this day until the 30 minutes before the deadline is him doubting his GlowingBear scumread, and then saying never mind. However, once Tumblewood comes back, he answers GlowingBear's question about who is mafia if he isn't, which feels like a really weird thing for mafia to do here (mafia would want to take bus credit, not honestly talk to their scumbuddy who is about to die). I find it weird that Breshke and I (Trfel) had similar reactions to the flip (not reading the last ~7 pages of the day), but Tumblewood commented on this as suspicious for Breshke and didn't mention me. I know that Tumblewood was strongly townreading me early on, but it feels weird that he would comment on some suspicious things that I did (voting for scott31337 day 1) and not others (not reading 5 pages). Tumblewood's vote for scott31337 makes sense, and the way he approaches POE makes sense as well. Overall, Tumblewood's filter feels really honest and genuine. Like, to a very high degree. Which makes me really want to townread him. However, his progressions on Palmar and Shapelog (Day 1) don't really make sense. And his latest explanation for the Palmar vote is that he woke up late and wasn't here (source), which doesn't seem to be true as judged by his activity around the deadline. I really want to townread Tumblewood, but I'm not quite ready to do so. @Tumblewood: Why did you have Palmar as a scum lean in this post? To me it seems that you were caught up at End of Day 1, am I misunderstanding what you are saying? Tictock + Show Spoiler + Tictock opened by saying that sicklucker's first few posts felt like he was posting just to post, but didn't really follow up on this. Sicklucker started pushing Eden for setup speculation, but Tictock entirely ignored it. On February 16 2016 15:34 Tictock wrote: This probably isn't important, but I think it would be funny if this is mafia!Tictock yelling at his drunk scumbuddy to shut up before getting them all caught Actually GB, less drunk posting from you is ok too.  Tictock criticizes Tumblewood a few times for complaining about the day being boring, and gives Tumblewood a few suggestions of things to talk about, but doesn't follow up very aggressively. Maybe I'm making something out of nothing. Going into End of Day 1, Tictock was fairly active and present, and while he's been very relaxed, I don't feel him doing too much. Here are his substantial reads: Eden town, Trfel town, Shapelog town, Palmar town (sheeping Trfel), some suspicion of Tumblewood for doing nothing, but also says that he doesn't see mafia motivation behind Tumblewood's play, citing an earlier post Then he makes this post about GlowingBear being town for putting in less effort in his scum games than his town games. Tictock's complete lack of followup on sicklucker is suspicious, I don't see how he goes from "sicklucker's post is the only interesting thing in the thread" to "I don't have any thoughts on sicklucker until I read his filter". If it's interesting, wouldn't he investigate it? And when nooniansoong questions Tictock's read on GlowingBear, Tictock responds by saying that he's bad at reading GlowingBear, instead of talking about the read itself. Tictock says he's suspicious of Shapelog, then comes back here and completely leaves Shapelog off of his list. This was before Shapelog claimed his role. He didn't discuss his lack of suspicion on Shapelog, either, despite Shapelog being heavily suspected at this time, which would presumably have been a priority. The post also lists Breshke as a town lean, which doesn't seem to match what appears to be a strong town read on Breshke earlier. Tictock provides a filter analysis of sicklucker explaining why he votes for him. Tictock doesn't see any mafia motivation from scott31337 or nooniansoong, but says he's very unimpressed by GlowingBear's posts, so he could policy lynch him. I'm not sure why he could be willing to policy lynch GlowingBear but not scott31337 here? I'm pretty sure I asked Tictock about this, but my memory is lousy, so I'll see where this comes up again later. This post feels quite towny from Tictock. It feels like he's actually trying to work out what alignment people are, instead of what alignment he wants them to seem. It also is right after the lynch, where people have nearly 72 hours to forget what you did before potentially lynching you. However, Tictock's switch onto Palmar is a bit suspect, maybe he was trying to make up for this error? Either way, this is towny thought process after an unexplained vote. In the above post, Tictock says that GlowingBear and The Shining are more likely town for voting off-wagon. Then, here he says that the off wagon votes are more likely mafia. The post also includes a large "tinfoil" section about scott31337 being mafia. This feels towny to me, because the end post seems to be not what he intended, which feels natural and towny. But the conclusions are weird. At this time, Tictock's been thinking about the game in two perspectives: scott31337 being scum and town. Initially, he was thinking that scott31337 is town because of the spread votes and crazy EoD. Then, he created this tinfoil theory that started out by if scott31337 is scum, what would that mean? He concluded that Tumblewood, scott31337, and nooniansoong is a sensible scum team and he wanted to start with Tumblewood. The weird thing here is that it starts completely from an assumption. Not an assumption that he has no input on, but an assumption where he's already claimed the opposite to be true. And instead of starting with the basis of said assumption, he wants to start by lynching someone else. He later clarifies that this tinfoil post is the majority of the basis for his scumread on Tumblewood. On February 20 2016 16:08 Tictock wrote: I don't understand how Tictock can say things like this to GlowingBear but still not want to lynch him, and lynch Tumblewood instead, despite being so unsure about scott?Well... WTF have you done for town GB? Like it can't seriously be a surprise to you that people scumread for doing jack all for 2 days, but draw some pictures and fake claim. Same goes for Tumble. You guys come in and make useless posts >.< Tictock ends up being the fifth vote on GlowingBear, after focusing so much on Tumblewood being mafia. And it feels like Tictock is more convinced in Tumblewood being mafia than GlowingBear, but votes for GlowingBear anyway. Then, after GlowingBear flipped mafia, Tictock went back to his read of scott being town due to GlowingBear voting off-wagon. And he says that he's not so sure about Tumblewood any more because his last few posts were a bit better (also presumably because no more association with scott?) I don't really see Tictock's later Day 3 from a town perspective. He goes from "nooniansoong is mafia! Tumblewood is mafia! Scott31337 feels like town but I guess he might be mafia (???)!" to "I'm probably wrong and scott's going to flip mafia and I'm going to be autolynched tomorrow but I don't care" Upon closer analysis, Tictock's Day 1 makes more sense than I thought. When he initially said that he was willing to lynch GlowingBear but not scott31337, scott31337 did have more content than GlowingBear, even if barely. And closer to the deadline, he said he was willing to lynch both. I'm currently feeling like Tumblewood is town, pending his answer to my question. And Tictock feels like town as well; while there are a lot of little things I don't like about his filter, there are also a lot of things that make sense, and the overall picture feels towny. Any thoughts about Tumblewood and Tictock? | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
I'll be watching a movie, I'll try and check back once every so often unless the movie is good. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 24 2016 12:32 rsoultin wrote: I provided the majority of my comments, regardless of conclusion. Anything I felt was relevant.bueno, i'm here lol >< but just starting to look through things so bear with me hey truffle what are you doing in those spoilers? cause you're coming to town conclusions but those points seem to be your issues with both filters? | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 24 2016 12:54 rsoultin wrote: It's quite possible that my analysis is entirely messed up nh :/ oooookay. so i guess you don't generally find positive things relevant? lol >< nvm it's not that important, i just find it odd to read so much text about x is weird, y is weird, this could maybe be town, weird, weird, weird, conclusion: town mathematically your post is pretty skewed lol It felt like something was going wrong. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
The movie was a bit underwhelming If I have time to read Breshke's filter, let's hope that it's a bit better. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
Bad Trfel. Means I have to do it again On the bright side, hopefully I can do a proper job this time. Homework first though...Anyway, Tumblewood, thanks for the response. One more question, you say that my reads are well-reasoned, but earlier you were criticizing my reads (like my Palmar read and my Eden read)? What changed? | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
So when you went into that tinfoil post, before it you were thinking that scott31337 was town because the Day 1 votes suggested Town vs Town. Then you decided that making this conclusion was bad before you read more carefully, right? So, I'm assuming that by the end of the tinfoil post, you'd read everything? So, what was your conclusion about scott31337's alignment, and why? And how and why did your previous read on the Day 1 lynch being town vs town change? | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 25 2016 03:43 Damdred wrote: <3town may no lynch, scum must shoot no happy endings here | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
| ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 25 2016 05:24 rsoultin wrote: I wonder if the fact that we agree means that we're right or that we're wrong?lol >< fuck if i know i'm pretty confident you and noon are town (barring some paranoia on the part of noon that is probably just silly) i actually think tt/bresh kinda have a hard time seeing either of them with tumble lol >< and tumble's fliter is really pretty direct like...it's kinda awful cause it's PoE, but honestly i went through breshke's filter again and the reasons i townread him (namely seeing a lot of the same things in things like shape's posts and sl's diary entries) are still there, but i'm not sure if i should have given them the weight i did. disregarding that, he's been extremely peripheral all game :/ as for tt, it's just a lot of swinginess that i can't really follow well and probably a bit of my natural inclination to really distrust anyone i have to ping half-a-dozen times to get an answer out of @.@ Or if it means that you're mafia and I'm stupid >< (though the two aren't mutually exclusive) I still feel like Tictock has been a reactive player and he hasn't been involved. I mean, I feel like he's been interactive but not involved, if that makes sense? And I don't like that at all. It's not related to his cases, but rather I don't feel like he's been pushing things... But the mafia!Breshke wouldn't save town!Palmar thing makes a lot of sense, though, right? Did Breskhe commit to it before it looked like scott vs Palmar? | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 18 2016 05:26 Breshke wrote: So, giving Breshke too many townpoints for this isn't really good. If he's mafia, he left himself open to most any lynch. If the scott wagon didn't work out, he could have switched his vote to most anywhere.Who are the valid options? I think trefels post is perfectly justified. Right now my lynch list is shining, GB, scott and palmar. I have not mentioned any of these people before and it is mostly based on activity and how this EoD is turning out. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
Breshke definitely hasn't been bad, he's been good, just not up to his best level as town. Of course this doesn't make him mafia, but I don't feel it's a good reason to townread him for this alone. I do feel that nooniansoong's scumread on GlowingBear is strongly town indicative, but not 100%. There are a few tonal things that make me think he is town, off the top of my head one of them is when he was hoping that scott31337 and GlowingBear aren't mafia together (so that the game wouldn't be too easy), but nowhere near as many as I remembered last game. Maybe he could be mafia here, even if it's unlikely, I'll take a look later (especially with a no-lynch to get extra time). For what it's worth, I think rsoultin is town? But the worth of this read is zero, so yeah. Saving for last. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
Rsoultin, weren't you scumreading nooniansoong a few days back? What happened to that? What about Tumblewood, weren't you calling my townread of Tumblewood stupid? | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 25 2016 05:49 rsoultin wrote: The game state? What do you mean?lol gb flipped? + Show Spoiler + it was actually how he reacted to my one post >> kinda flippant but still trying to calm me down. not sure how to explain that and it's probably just pure bias, but whatever i still don't think that your reasons are good enough for the hard townread you've had on tumble all game, but i have to grudgingly admit you're probably right >> just given the game state Anyway, here's one example of the kind of thing that makes me think that Tictock is scum. Tinfoil post saying he wants to lynch Tumblewood, @4:36 EST [lots of commenting] [more commenting] [some reads but nothing pointed] Voting for who he thought was scum last night (Tumblewood), @22:02 EST So, a bit over 17 hours later, after a ton of commenting on things, he votes for the same person as he thought before, for the exact same reasons? Things to check: 1. How much did Tictock push Tumblewood relative to the wagon on GlowingBear? Did he throw out a read and not talk about it much while the GlowingBear wagon wasn't there, or was this after the GlowingBear wagon was already going? If the former, it's suspicious how his activity with regards to this push increased later. 2. Why didn't Tumblewood push any of the other lynches as much as he did the Tumblewood wagon? He seemed to be making a fuss over this, which I definitely don't remember him making Day 1 (would have thought he'd want to lynch sicklucker) or Day 3 (not lynching scott, lynching Tumble isntead). It's a bit hard for me to tell if he actually was trying to defend scott or not, but maybe comparing his push on Tumble D2 and the defense of scott D3 shows something. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
If anyone would like to no-lynch, maybe that could work, and I can try my best to avoid a modkill for inactivity, but if both rsoultin and I are better with lynching, I'd kinda prefer that. GG The Shining. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 25 2016 06:16 rsoultin wrote: I was really hoping that I'd die because I can't play well, i thought we might get an interesting flip just cause shining's been so absent, but :/ anyway, i'm gonna finish up the schoolwork i need to have done for tomorrow today could actually be quite fun if we lynch ^^ -bounces- And I was really hoping that The Shining would stay alive because he's pretty awesome Lategame is not my best; I can do Day 2 and 3, but after that.....Anyway mafia, please kill me next? It's no fun to leave someone in the game who can't participate You know it's the right thing. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
Much of what Tictock posted about his suspicion of Tumblewood was actually reactive. He responded to townreads that I posted about Tumblewood and ways that his read was directly questioned. His tone towards the Tumblewood lynch and the force with which he pushes it changes here, once it starts feeling like GlowingBear will be lynched. And while his push on Tumblewood was of moderate involvement, his defense of scott and push onto Tumblewood on Day 3 seems almost nonexistant. This strongly suggests that Tictock is mafia. Thoughts? Did I mess up? I feel like End of Night disrupted my thought process a bit is the logic sensible? | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
It's just that his play fits mafia motivation very nicely. With his read on GlowingBear, with his push on Tumblewood. See how the strength of these vary over time, compare to the thread sentiment and mafia's goals at that time. See how his interactivity vs case-style analysis varies over time. ##vote Tictock Going to go with this for now at least, before I doubt myself again. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 25 2016 07:16 nooniansoong wrote: I'm more confident in Tictock being mafia.hmm why tt over breshke? | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
| ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 25 2016 08:25 nooniansoong wrote: I feel like this is most likely, but I'm still not too confident in it. Especially since I haven't seriously looked into Breshke yet. I have seriously looked into Tictock, but I'm not 100% sure yet.but you think the two mafia are breshke and tt right? | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
@Tictock: if you don't mind, I'd like to go back to this. So when you went into that tinfoil post, before it you were thinking that scott31337 was town because the Day 1 votes suggested Town vs Town. Then you decided that making this conclusion was bad before you read more carefully, right? So, I'm assuming that by the end of the tinfoil post, you'd read everything? So, what was your conclusion about scott31337's alignment, and why? And how and why did your previous read on the Day 1 lynch being town vs town change? And yes, I will keep being obnoxious with questions until I figure out who is mafia | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 25 2016 11:04 Tumblewood wrote: Do you mind providing one or two examples of reads that you feel make me town this game?Trfel, your D1 reads are allowed to be bad because we had 0 flips or claims, and little filter to use. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
How about, your turn? Do you have any questions for me, anything you'd like to bring up again, anything you'd like to discuss? | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 26 2016 04:35 boxerfred wrote: Lol?/out something unforseeable happend Nooniansoong, I don't get why you've been saying that Tictock and Breshke are mafia for a while, and you largely ignore me in my discussions last night, and suddenly decide that Tictock is town. Why wasn't this anything you would have liked to talk about last night? And what are your actual reasons, or is it just "mafia is the least suspected people"? | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
Yes, I screwed up. Yes, it was really stupid. Yes, I'm sorry. But I'd still prefer to cut my losses. If you're fine with no-lynching, thus going into LYLO with me barely being present, then I guess that works, but I don't think it's smart, especially since rsoultin's schedule also works better with no-lynching. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
| ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 26 2016 04:50 Tictock wrote: No idea. Currently I think that Tumblewood is town and you are mafia, but I haven't been able to look too closely at anyone else yet.Ok, well assuming we HAVE to lynch today then. If I were suddenly mod-killed or whatever, who would you be voting for? | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
My top priority right now is catching up in my classes. You know, because I've been sick and unable to go to class. I think I found one scum and have presented reasons, and I'm more than willing to discuss this read with anyone (including them). We're only allowed one lynch per day. I'll look at Breshke eventually, but on my time, not yours. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 26 2016 05:02 nooniansoong wrote: Seeing as I clearly said that I would look into Breshke last night, , I don't see what your point is.i mean in terms of who you are looking at in the game. Not over real life. Don't get snippy with me. On February 26 2016 04:40 Trfel wrote: Lol? Nooniansoong, I don't get why you've been saying that Tictock and Breshke are mafia for a while, and you largely ignore me in my discussions last night, and suddenly decide that Tictock is town. Why wasn't this anything you would have liked to talk about last night? And what are your actual reasons, or is it just "mafia is the least suspected people"? | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
You feel that he is town because of how he interacted with Shapelog, and because he didn't talk about his read on sicklucker before he died, right? Did I miss anything? | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 26 2016 05:27 Trfel wrote: Well, I'm heading out for a while, but I don't see much reason to go one way or the other on Breshke based on the posts you quoted. And mafia wouldn't want to share their read on someone who they're about to nightkill because it's less efficient than sharing a read on someone who will still be alive, a read which you'd have the opportunity to use later.Tictock, I'm not sure I understand. To me, your post made me feel more suspicious of Breshke, not less, as you say. You feel that he is town because of how he interacted with Shapelog, and because he didn't talk about his read on sicklucker before he died, right? Did I miss anything? Basically, I feel that both of those reasons are extremely poor. And how this affects your read on Breshke, or if you disagree with my statements. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 26 2016 11:41 Tumblewood wrote: When you get back, these posts about Breshke that you refer to, aren't they posts by Tictock?I'm seeing all of these posts on breshke and realizing more and more that my scumread on him is really weak. I'd switch back to a no-lynch, but that could end up costing us the game with Trfel 's situation, so I'm going to tictock. +more reasons coming later, I'm phoneposting right now If these posts are good enough to make you want to not lynch Breshke, why would this make you want to lynch the person who posted them? Maybe Tumblewood is mafia after all..... | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 26 2016 12:04 Tumblewood wrote: Sorry, to clarify, are you agreeing with Tictock in his conclusions only or in the arguments he used to arrive at his conclusion (the conclusion being that Breshke is town)?Idk where this notion is coming from that I can't agree with someone if also I think they're scum. I'm not thinking this because TT said it, I'm thinking about it because he said it and coming to the same conclusion. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 26 2016 13:44 rsoultin wrote: I'm not scum blah truffle wuffle, you're not scum are you? that would make me randomly proud and sad at the same time lol >< like either this game is really super fucking easy and we're all over-analyzing everything and wifoming our way into stupid, or noon and/or truffle are playing kick-ass scum games I'm currently thinking that it's Tictock and then one of Breshke/nooniansoong, I guess. Heavily leaning towards Breshke over nooniansoong, but I haven't closely looks at either of them. I could just be completely missing the mark, though, help? | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 26 2016 12:48 Tumblewood wrote: Thanks, this makes sense.I wasn't convinced by his arguments, I was pushed to reexamine my read and decided that my cues on Breshke were not as damming as I thought. I worry that I fed this out to you, though Paranoia check time. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 26 2016 13:50 rsoultin wrote: So why is it not Tictock/Breshke? They're not bussing each other? Am I misreading?nh...so the sudden read flip on noon's part... that comes from looking through his scum game to see if he had static reads or not? <- need clarification lol >< tbf tt's scumread on you makes a fair amount of sense tch the problem with tumble being scum is then i'm living in a world where scum is bussing each other to oblivion OR i'm misreading truffle >< fuck sidenote: tt pushing tumble is totally what he has to do if he's scum, though ^^ | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
It makes sense, even if it doesn't feel quite right to me? Meh. Not going to worry about it for now. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
If we don't lynch Breshke and he wins, Palmar gets to taunt us forever. Is that really what we want? Seriously though, Breshke's filter may "only" be six pages, but that takes a while to go through I'll see how far I get.Anyway, I guess you don't like my non-association, independent reasons for Tictock being mafia? | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
The only question is, is it important I kinda think that the "how insightful are his questions" read on Breshke isn't very good after all. But I'm not sure what to use instead. How much does Breshke push things when he's town? How involved is he with the lynch? | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 26 2016 14:04 rsoultin wrote: I don't have a case, it's more of a conclusion reached from continued discussion.nh, my problem with tictock is the scattered filter, and it's an overall sense of things rather than anything particular, though i could find examples if you wanted like...i understood your case to be basically that you didn't feel he really pushed hard for the tumble lynch when he was townreading scott? The biggest reason I think he is mafia is because his involvement has fit mafia motivations. When all that's needed is activity, he's here and commenting, but not pushing. When he's needed to push things, he's pushing. When he's not, he's sidelines. All from a mafia perspective, not a town perspective. Most things I've brought up are just small examples of this at different times. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 26 2016 14:10 rsoultin wrote: He largely did go with the flow, though?tch this gets into narrative territory :/ i'm assuming you at least tried to consider it from both sides when you went through his filter? you and i make reads very differently lol >< for instance, i see you commenting on his pushing tumble during the scott lynch and how he didn't really push it and honestly i can see town sticking to his guns there but being demotivated when people basically haven't listened to him for a week? so i'm not really sure how strong that actually is what's the scum motivation for townreading scott there and not really pushing tumble, assuming tumble is town as you say? why not just go with the flow? Scum obviously can't be okay with every lynch. Ideally, the ones that scum isn't okay with are the ones that would die off anyway, or the ones that go through even without their support. The scott lynch was a perfect way for mafia to potentially get a mislynch while not lynching lynchbait. Townreading scott obviously doesn't make Tictock mafia, but it didn't even seem like Tictock cared. In Outlaw, when he was getting lynched, he was mad. Not really driven, but quite annoyed. Here, when scott was being lynched, Tictock felt sad and withdrawn? Like I get that it's not the same situation, but compared to his earlier fire to lynch Tumblewood? It's possible to come from town, but stretching it. Plus, it doesn't matter so much about if it's possible to come from town if it's fitting mafia motivation? Tictock makes sense as mafia, so he's mafia. Town generally doesn't fit mafia motivation so nicely. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
| ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
"I agree with the essence of this post that the way EoD went down makes me feel that scott is probably town but thats also because I have a hankering that SL is scum but won't be discussing that until tomorrow" Night 1 Why did sicklucker being scum make you think that scott was town? | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 26 2016 14:39 rsoultin wrote: It's not something that can be explained, it's something that needs to be seen with your own eyes the breshke i remember generally tries to look at everything from all angles...that's not to say that he wouldn't have that sort of attitude toward someone who never made sense, though as for the tt thing, the way he's handling today i've already pointed out is exactly what a scum tt has to do here lol >< right down to the opening the door on breshke bit i just don't really see your particular point...i'm assuming it's more an overall thing that i'm missing, though, cause the specific example alone is pretty meh It's okay, we can't all have talent Anyway, I don't know about Breshke Some things seem so towny, but others seem so scummy... Feeling lost | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
starting at just before midnight, for the record + Show Spoiler + I'll keep note of all of the meaningful things that Breshke does. First, he asked a question to Tictock about why he found sicklucker's opening interesting, which feels very weak, and then he didn't follow up. The response of "ehh okay" feels like he was reluctant to let Tictock slide, but did so anyway? And at this time I don't see anything wrong with Tictock's response, but anyway, the "ehh okay" response feels tonally improper to me. Still though, this is right at the start of the game. The follow-up just doesn't feel like it's there. But his response to Palmar's initial scumread feels towny. I would expect scum to be more careful there. Breshke said he didn't have strong scum feelings but would be willing to lynch sicklucker because he won't be able to read him. This doesn't feel like a good sentiment, and this is very similar to Breshke's play as mafia in his last scum game. I don't see mafia motivation behind Breshke's play towards later Day 1. He felt involved on an End of Day where it was town vs town, and once it was clear that GlowingBear wouldn't be lynched this isn't necessary for mafia. If Breshke is mafia, this play is really impressive. After this, Breshke's activity dropped off significantly. He opened Day 2 by voting for Tumblewood, then when I shared reasons to townread Tumblewood, Breshke expressed doubt over his read but didn't follow up with this very much. I.... really don't understand Breshke's reaction to The Shining's counterclaim vigilante at all. That's just weird. I want to scumread Breshke for it, but it feels so weird that I'm not sure if this is appropriate? Would GlowingBear have discussed the claim plan in the QT or not? If so, this makes Breshke town; if not, this makes Breshke more likely scum. Bleh. But if Breshke didn't discuss it with GlowingBear, would he really take a guess at GlowingBear being the vigilante? This makes no sense to me....... I don't even know. The way that Breshke votes for scott31337 feels very suspicious to me. Breshke said that scott is more likely town due to the voting, then reversed this and voted for Tumblewood, and then voted for scott anyway? It's just that he seemingly voted for scott for the exact same thing he felt was towny earlier? Like, what about the Day 1 voting looked bad for scott? Is this an association read with Tumblewood, his other scumread, being mafia? Then why not vote for Tumblewood? Feels like he's taking the easier path instead of the read progression that actually makes sense. It's also weird because Breshke was being suspicious of scott before leaving, then comes back and posts this: On February 19 2016 22:04 Breshke wrote: Where he discounts all of the reasons he gave to suspect scott, yet votes for him anyway. Huh?wouldn't you say well played to SL even if he was vig'd? ##Vote:Scott I assume if he is town he is busy or some shit and ive been saying i felt how the lynch went down made him seem town but im just really underwhelmed right now Also rsoul is giving me the heebie jeebies but i cant put my finger on why And at this time, it was looking like scott was the counterwagon to GlowingBear (they were about equal), not Tumblewood vs GB. So, why did Breshke vote for scott instead of Tumblewood? hm.... On February 21 2016 01:37 Breshke wrote: But this feels off. Wouldn't expect mafia to behave like this when their partner is being lynched. The lack of presence is a bit surprising.Lynch Scott he doesn't care That's all I have. I feel like I'm not understanding some key things that make this make more sense. Thoughts? | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
The town reasoning isn't something I see, the mafia motivation is rather obvious. So yeah, I don't have much to add right now other than I'm distracted and darn tired, but it'll be easier to wait until Breshke answers about this, anyway. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
| ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
Best of luck, I'll catch up when I can. Mafia is Tictock and Breshke, and maybe nooniansoong, Tumblewood, and rsoultin | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
| ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
| ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
| ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
##vote no lynch I don't like how Breshke has vanished completely, I'm not confident that this is mafia indicative for him. I really wish he could be here to answer questions, I feel that it would help a lot. The only concern is, if we no-lynch and Breshke gets modkilled and he's town, we lose, right? But that's basically the same as if we lynched him, which is the alternative anyway, so I don't think this matters? | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On February 29 2016 15:13 rsoultin wrote: I think it's possible that I'm wrong? I'm really good at being wrong?honestly, truffle, i think you're town lol >< and if bresh gets modkilled and is town then yes...pretty sure that means we lose do you honestly think this will help? like, either bresh will come back and can answer questions or he won't and the game's already decided one way or another...if you think either tumble or myself could be scum, then maybe you should just look into that? I mean, I kinda want to look at things again because regardless of who is mafia, it's a very winnable game. I just feel bad not doing so I get that it drags out the game and is super boring and makes the obs QT really mad if it actually is just Breshke (which I still think is really likely), but we all know it's technically the correct play?Like, I don't need to no-lynch, but I feel really guilty not doing so, if that makes sense? Because then it's very much my fault if we lose. + Show Spoiler + Also, I kind of wonder if Breshke is mafia, how was there a night kill? It didn't seem like Breshke was present at all, so was the kill randomized, or did he submit a kill and not actually post anything (feels out of character)? Or is he actually town? | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
| ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
| ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
But it's also quite possible that this is completely incorrect, and this isn't really a possibility that I've looked into yet | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On March 01 2016 00:31 Tumblewood wrote: This is really bad if Breshke is actually here and votes at the very last second and is mafia. It gives him a free win. Even if it seems like Breshke just isn't here, that would be the worst way to lose.What I gather is that the best way to do this is to lynch someone (rsoul?) and let Breshke get modkilled. From my perspective, that's a 90%ish chance we hit mafia. And I really don't feel that playing for modkills is a good thing to do anyway. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On March 01 2016 02:37 rsoultin wrote: I'm not so good at reading more experienced players, I think I'm better at reading newer players?well, i mean, i can answer any questions you have, but i'm not scum @.@ and i'm still not sure why you'd ever be more sure of tumble than me this game but whatevs...i guess it's a backhanded complement i don't really think tumble is scum here anyway...like, it's possible, but just not likely and if you're scum i'll eat my hat And you're an enigma anyway. And I don't have time. So that's that XD Breshke, please be scum. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
Well played all, sorry about that. | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
On March 01 2016 06:15 rsoultin wrote: I mean, I don't think that we were ever lynching someone other than you or Breshke there.ye, tis true he'd have made me break my no fake claim rule in that case lol >< | ||
|
Trfel
7015 Posts
But I didn't feel like anyone in the game was really having fun any more, and to be honest no one was really playing towards the end. I figured it would be better to just let the game end than drag it out and maybe win.Anyway, time to go back to the beach. | ||
| ||
