Newbie Student Mafia XIX - Page 6

On January 29 2016 08:46 darthfoley wrote:


Just wanna make sure I understand: you're saying you think both Alur and I voted for Kuragari for legitimate reasons?

I generally try to leave things open ended and avoid putting things in people's mouths. it is useful to me to see how other people describe things

I don't have a read on tumbleweed,to be honest. The only thing that stands out is that he seems to be very careful in his posts.

a lot of people seem to be suspecting Tumbleweed, can someone remind me as to why?

On January 29 2016 09:03 Trfel wrote:
Vote count analyses are very different depending on whether or not there is mafia up for lynch.

If all of the wagons were town, mafia doesn't really care what happens. As such, people who seem invested at end of day and care about the lynch are more likely town. If there is mafia up for lynch, then obviously people who voted for the flipped town are more suspicious. But that's very poor preflip association analysis to simply assume that mafia wanted Kuragari42 to be lynched.

I thought that Kuragari42 had slipped blue and/or was claiming blue, in which case it's always incorrect to lynch him. When I looked at his filter more carefully, this wasn't the case, so I switched my vote to him because his reads didn't seem very interesting. It didn't feel like Kuragari42 was trying to help further town and help catch scum, but instead just state his reads for the record. In retrospect, this isn't very alignment indicative.

Tumblewood wasn't going to get lynched, and I already explained my reasons for scumreading him as well as I could. I don't really think that JesusIncarnate is mafia.

On January 30 2016 05:12 Eden1892 wrote:
Yeah fuck Onegu he's scum. Being an ass to people telling them to stop doing things, terribad reads and suspects, inactive and not doing anything even before IRL issues arose to explain that away.

This also means Trfel is town, which is fine, because I was starting to get some cognitive dissonance feels reading Trfel's most recent posts. This picture makes a lot more sense.

On January 31 2016 15:17 Eden1892 wrote:
We are not lynching Trfel. That post is literal never ever coming from scum.

I don't even know who we are lynching yet but it's not Trfel. Period.

On January 31 2016 16:10 Eden1892 wrote:
In the middle of rereading Trfel's filter this game and comparing to his most recent town and scum game. I am inclined to think his play this game is actually more reminiscent of his last mafia game from what I did read, but I'm also really skeptical about how useful this information is, since the basis of the comparison is basically all tonal and there are several things that may affect that. I'd have to give a more complete reread of all his past games, after adjusting for how recent they are (since how he played months/years ago isn't representative of anything) and I don't really feel like doing that.

On January 31 2016 15:45 darthfoley wrote:


I'm personally offended that you have Shapelog as more of a town read than me given that i'm the vigilante aka blue role lol

On January 31 2016 22:04 nooniansoong wrote:


He shot onegu

On January 31 2016 22:17 nooniansoong wrote:
Also ma, Your primary scum reads are based on a connection theory. Connection theories before any scum have flipped are generally bad.

I think both are being reasonable in not wanting to lynch the other .
Eden is not lymchabe today because the support for lynching him isn't there.
Trfel looks townie due to the size and quantity of his posts. (he's not but I think it makes sense that Eden thinks he is)

My advice to you in regards to scumhunting is to look at people's arguments behind their scumreads. Do they make sense to you or do they seem fake?