Newbie Student Mafia XIX - Page 10
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darthfoley
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darthfoley
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darthfoley
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On February 01 2016 12:17 darthfoley wrote: Just want to summarize publicly Ikidomari's two read posts First read post Town: darthfoley Alur PMT Scum: Onegu JesusIncarnate Trfel Need to look at closer (edited this in, was the post below said quoted post): Shapelog Tumbelwood Kuragari Last read post Town: Alur Kuragari (already dead) Darthfoley MexicanAlien Eden Tumblewood Null/Doesn't give a read: PMT Shapelog (says he's town for now, look at him very closely) Scum Onegu Trfel Kush JesusIncarnate @Trfel and others. I would prefer we start playing the association game, at least a little bit. People have been scolded for that earlier, but I don't think I've seen enough discussion regarding who Ikidomari town/scum read and when now that we've actually flipped scum. I also will do my research, but I think the best way to find remaining scum and do a thorough look at his filter, focusing on who Ikidomari seems 100% in disagreement with, or who he does not directly interact with. When I was mafia last game with kush, I had no idea how to naturally interact with him in the thread, and as a result my filter mentioning him was very slim. I find it likely that Ikidomari faced similar difficulties | ||
darthfoley
United States8001 Posts
1) his reads were better than mine 2) mafia thought he was blue 3) both I can't remember if we just accepted his death as obvi NK, because it surprised me slightly. | ||
darthfoley
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On February 01 2016 07:03 PepperMintTea wrote: Here's what happens He has no knowledge of the game so far He isn't going to go through 70 pages in a detailed manner so he will skim read and come up with something not particularly useful. Just some basic surface stuff. He will still be a massive question mark Jesus was scummy and decided not to play. Scott won't remove that for me so I am lynching him regardless I have had similar thoughts regarding Jesus. That's why I really don't like posts like this. This is so dismissive from PMT. | ||
darthfoley
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On February 01 2016 13:27 Trfel wrote: Eden, you're really making me doubt my scumread on you ![]() Bad Eden ![]() I need to think about this more later. Anyway, @Eden and darthfoley, what do you think about what I brought up about here? Possible association between Tumblewood and Ikidomari. + Show Spoiler [@darth] + To clarify, I'm not saying never to use nk analysis and association. I'm saying that if you do so, do it very carefully, because it's so so easy to get incorrect conclusions. You need to consider every possibility, and that a possibility can exist, however unlikely, that points to the wrong thing and just makes your conclusions completely wrong. Including simply "mafia didn't think of this", even if it was the correct thing. I'm more than willing to discuss, but I don't feel like your generalized statements of what is mafia indicative were correct for why I explained. Yea I reread that. It does look pretty wishy washy while giving himself a back door. I would be comfortable lynching Tumblewood if I somehow don't die. fingers crossed there's a doc. Also, I have forgotten why Shapelog is a super strong town read for everyone. Secondly, thought I might point this out. Ikidomari was a regular mafia goon, and it makes sense why mafia wouldn't try all that hard to save him, especially given how damning the evidence was. also, when the Godfather gets lynched, does he flip town or mafia? Does Godfather only matter with cop checks? | ||
darthfoley
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darthfoley
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also pls medic if you're out there | ||
darthfoley
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darthfoley
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On January 30 2016 07:00 Eden1892 wrote: hmmmmmmm. I'm a bit skeptical about this roleblock claim. I don't know how reasonable it is to be suspicious of kush for this though. Basically, knowing there was a vig, and knowing the mafia know there was a vig, they had three possible roles to play around: 1. the vig (of course) 2. the veteran 3. the doctor It's plausible to roleblock somebody to play around a vigilante, which is the main reason why I don't think the claim is too weird. I don't know why kush though. But when you consider that they would also know about a protective role, wouldn't it make more sense to use the roleblock on that instead of trying to roleblock to maybe protect someone? Like I can't imagine using the roleblocker to protect Jesus from vig!Kush. The number of things you'd have to have lined up to make that a reasonable play are a bit too high for me. 1. you'd have to have a good read on kush being the vig. I don't see how you would do that. Maybe reading kush lying low as a blue makes sense, but specifically vig doesn't really make sense to me. 2. you'd have to have a good read on kush wanting to shoot Jesus. if you read him as vig I guess that's safe. 3. Jesus would also have to be mafia. obviously, but still worth noting. That's just a lot of moving parts. I don't think that's what did it. And obviously, since they shot Alur, they weren't playing around a veteran. So that leaves a doc. I don't remember kush being adamant about Alur being town... far from it, kush suggested Alur could be mafia at a couple of points. I guess if you just are trying to hit the doc at random then kush is an ok target for lying low... but then that raises another question. If they reasonably thought kush was doc, why not shoot kush? That leaves me with four possible explanations: 1. Mafia thought kush was the vig and roleblocked him to protect Jesus. This means Jesus is mafia and the mafia also didn't feel the need to play around a veteran. Lots of parts here but not impossible. 2. Mafia thought kush was the doc and roleblocked him to prevent him from protecting someone. This could be the case I guess, but it makes very little sense because I would basically always shoot the doc n1 if I had a good read on him. 3. Mafia didn't really think kush was anything and just roleblocked him. This is clearly suboptimal mafia play: if there's a vet in the game, you rb your kill if you don't think anyone else is a blue, and if there's a doc in the game and you don't think it's kush, you rb someone else to try to hit the doc. 4. kush is fakeclaiming rb. (*: Obviously claiming roleblocked doesn't confirm you town, and is NAI, but sometimes townies take an illogical stance on the roleblock and incorrectly (from a process standpoint) confirm a townie to be town. Why risk that if you don't really have a lead on a blue?) So basically, either kush is mafia or Jesus is. Because kush's rb claim can only be genuine from the standpoint where the mafia think kush is the vig, and they used the rb to protect Jesus from kush. I'd have to go look and see if Jesus is the one. kush did seem to be mostly on Jesus. Quoting this so people can look at this post again | ||
darthfoley
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Nah but seriously, this is very good work. Very good work. On the other hand, if you're right and there is no doc in the game, mafia knows this and I will 100% die tomorrow. Either way, I think this game got a lot clearer in the last hour. Do we go for Tumblewood first and if he's mafia, finish off with Kush? | ||
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darthfoley
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darthfoley
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darthfoley
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Besides Tumblewood of course | ||
darthfoley
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On February 02 2016 00:04 nooniansoong wrote: *dude do i look like last game to you Does the game look like last game to you? ![]() | ||
darthfoley
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darthfoley
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Town list: MexicanAlien Eden Probably Shapelog Null: PMT Jesus Trfel Scum: Tumblewood Kush My parting words are: I really liked Eden's case against the two of them. Fits together quite nicely. I think the best play as town is to lynch Tumblewood, see what he flips, and continue from there. He's been MIA similar to Ikido when it was clear he was being lynched, and he never provided much substance. Eden is my strongest TR. Shapelog's filter length almost singlehandedly doesn't make me want to case him, which is effective if mafia, I guess lol. GG (probably) and good luck to the town. | ||
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