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Newbie Student Mafia XIX - Page 10

Forum Index > TL Mafia
Post a Reply
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darthfoley
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States8001 Posts
February 01 2016 03:56 GMT
#1660
I think the lack of useful discussion is something to be mindful of. Don't think it's simply random
watch the wall collide with my fist, mostly over problems that i know i should fix
darthfoley
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States8001 Posts
February 01 2016 03:59 GMT
#1663
Just so everyone knows, I'm going my best to release an updated darthfoley's reads post some hours before the night ends. I fully expect to die, but I would at least like people to know what I think before I am found shot and stuffed in an alley dumpster
watch the wall collide with my fist, mostly over problems that i know i should fix
darthfoley
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States8001 Posts
February 01 2016 04:06 GMT
#1670
On February 01 2016 12:17 darthfoley wrote:
Just want to summarize publicly Ikidomari's two read posts

First read post


Town:
darthfoley
Alur
PMT

Scum:
Onegu
JesusIncarnate
Trfel

Need to look at closer (edited this in, was the post below said quoted post):
Shapelog
Tumbelwood
Kuragari

Last read post

Town:
Alur
Kuragari
(already dead)
Darthfoley
MexicanAlien
Eden
Tumblewood

Null/Doesn't give a read:
PMT
Shapelog (says he's town for now, look at him very closely)


Scum
Onegu
Trfel
Kush
JesusIncarnate



@Trfel and others. I would prefer we start playing the association game, at least a little bit. People have been scolded for that earlier, but I don't think I've seen enough discussion regarding who Ikidomari town/scum read and when now that we've actually flipped scum.

I also will do my research, but I think the best way to find remaining scum and do a thorough look at his filter, focusing on who Ikidomari seems 100% in disagreement with, or who he does not directly interact with. When I was mafia last game with kush, I had no idea how to naturally interact with him in the thread, and as a result my filter mentioning him was very slim. I find it likely that Ikidomari faced similar difficulties
watch the wall collide with my fist, mostly over problems that i know i should fix
darthfoley
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States8001 Posts
February 01 2016 04:16 GMT
#1674
Did we ever ever a real discussion why Alur was killed and not me, or maybe even Eden? I was townread probably harder than Alur at the time, so the only thing I can think of is that

1) his reads were better than mine
2) mafia thought he was blue
3) both

I can't remember if we just accepted his death as obvi NK, because it surprised me slightly.
watch the wall collide with my fist, mostly over problems that i know i should fix
darthfoley
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States8001 Posts
February 01 2016 04:24 GMT
#1677
On February 01 2016 07:03 PepperMintTea wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 01 2016 07:00 Trfel wrote:
Just please, please, give scott31337 a chance to be read one way or another. Not doing so is really stupid.


Here's what happens

He has no knowledge of the game so far

He isn't going to go through 70 pages in a detailed manner so he will skim read and come up with something not particularly useful. Just some basic surface stuff.

He will still be a massive question mark

Jesus was scummy and decided not to play. Scott won't remove that for me so I am lynching him regardless



I have had similar thoughts regarding Jesus. That's why I really don't like posts like this. This is so dismissive from PMT.
watch the wall collide with my fist, mostly over problems that i know i should fix
darthfoley
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States8001 Posts
February 01 2016 04:48 GMT
#1683
On February 01 2016 13:27 Trfel wrote:
Eden, you're really making me doubt my scumread on you

Bad Eden

I need to think about this more later.

Anyway, @Eden and darthfoley, what do you think about what I brought up about here? Possible association between Tumblewood and Ikidomari.
+ Show Spoiler [@darth] +
To clarify, I'm not saying never to use nk analysis and association. I'm saying that if you do so, do it very carefully, because it's so so easy to get incorrect conclusions. You need to consider every possibility, and that a possibility can exist, however unlikely, that points to the wrong thing and just makes your conclusions completely wrong. Including simply "mafia didn't think of this", even if it was the correct thing.

I'm more than willing to discuss, but I don't feel like your generalized statements of what is mafia indicative were correct for why I explained.


Yea I reread that. It does look pretty wishy washy while giving himself a back door. I would be comfortable lynching Tumblewood if I somehow don't die.

fingers crossed there's a doc.

Also, I have forgotten why Shapelog is a super strong town read for everyone.

Secondly, thought I might point this out. Ikidomari was a regular mafia goon, and it makes sense why mafia wouldn't try all that hard to save him, especially given how damning the evidence was.

also, when the Godfather gets lynched, does he flip town or mafia? Does Godfather only matter with cop checks?
watch the wall collide with my fist, mostly over problems that i know i should fix
darthfoley
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States8001 Posts
February 01 2016 04:48 GMT
#1684
btw if eden and trfel are mafia, I hate you both
watch the wall collide with my fist, mostly over problems that i know i should fix
darthfoley
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States8001 Posts
February 01 2016 05:45 GMT
#1694
I think we can go half way with this argument and lynch Tumblewood. It's a relatively safe lynch from someone who hasn't done anything too town, and some questionable mafia stuff. Depending on what Tumblewood flips, we can reevaluate.

also pls medic if you're out there
watch the wall collide with my fist, mostly over problems that i know i should fix
darthfoley
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States8001 Posts
February 01 2016 05:48 GMT
#1695
If kush is mafia, he lied about being rb'd. What's the long term motivation? It wouldn't simply be to gain some insta town cred, would it? You would fake rb claim to make town view the game in a way it shouldn't, right?
watch the wall collide with my fist, mostly over problems that i know i should fix
darthfoley
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States8001 Posts
February 01 2016 05:49 GMT
#1697
On January 30 2016 07:00 Eden1892 wrote:
hmmmmmmm.

I'm a bit skeptical about this roleblock claim. I don't know how reasonable it is to be suspicious of kush for this though.

Basically, knowing there was a vig, and knowing the mafia know there was a vig, they had three possible roles to play around:

1. the vig (of course)
2. the veteran
3. the doctor

It's plausible to roleblock somebody to play around a vigilante, which is the main reason why I don't think the claim is too weird. I don't know why kush though.

But when you consider that they would also know about a protective role, wouldn't it make more sense to use the roleblock on that instead of trying to roleblock to maybe protect someone?

Like I can't imagine using the roleblocker to protect Jesus from vig!Kush. The number of things you'd have to have lined up to make that a reasonable play are a bit too high for me.
1. you'd have to have a good read on kush being the vig. I don't see how you would do that. Maybe reading kush lying low as a blue makes sense, but specifically vig doesn't really make sense to me.
2. you'd have to have a good read on kush wanting to shoot Jesus. if you read him as vig I guess that's safe.
3. Jesus would also have to be mafia. obviously, but still worth noting.

That's just a lot of moving parts. I don't think that's what did it.

And obviously, since they shot Alur, they weren't playing around a veteran.

So that leaves a doc. I don't remember kush being adamant about Alur being town... far from it, kush suggested Alur could be mafia at a couple of points. I guess if you just are trying to hit the doc at random then kush is an ok target for lying low...

but then that raises another question. If they reasonably thought kush was doc, why not shoot kush?


That leaves me with four possible explanations:
1. Mafia thought kush was the vig and roleblocked him to protect Jesus. This means Jesus is mafia and the mafia also didn't feel the need to play around a veteran. Lots of parts here but not impossible.
2. Mafia thought kush was the doc and roleblocked him to prevent him from protecting someone. This could be the case I guess, but it makes very little sense because I would basically always shoot the doc n1 if I had a good read on him.
3. Mafia didn't really think kush was anything and just roleblocked him. This is clearly suboptimal mafia play: if there's a vet in the game, you rb your kill if you don't think anyone else is a blue, and if there's a doc in the game and you don't think it's kush, you rb someone else to try to hit the doc.
4. kush is fakeclaiming rb.

(*: Obviously claiming roleblocked doesn't confirm you town, and is NAI, but sometimes townies take an illogical stance on the roleblock and incorrectly (from a process standpoint) confirm a townie to be town. Why risk that if you don't really have a lead on a blue?)

So basically, either kush is mafia or Jesus is. Because kush's rb claim can only be genuine from the standpoint where the mafia think kush is the vig, and they used the rb to protect Jesus from kush.

I'd have to go look and see if Jesus is the one. kush did seem to be mostly on Jesus.


Quoting this so people can look at this post again
watch the wall collide with my fist, mostly over problems that i know i should fix
darthfoley
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States8001 Posts
February 01 2016 06:03 GMT
#1701
I think you may have just cracked the Enigma Code, Eden. Either that or it's like Jesus and Tumble and you've worked too hard.

Nah but seriously, this is very good work. Very good work. On the other hand, if you're right and there is no doc in the game, mafia knows this and I will 100% die tomorrow. Either way, I think this game got a lot clearer in the last hour. Do we go for Tumblewood first and if he's mafia, finish off with Kush?
watch the wall collide with my fist, mostly over problems that i know i should fix
darthfoley
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States8001 Posts
February 01 2016 06:04 GMT
#1702
Ironically, I was very close to shooting Kush over Onegu. Darn
watch the wall collide with my fist, mostly over problems that i know i should fix
darthfoley
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States8001 Posts
February 01 2016 06:19 GMT
#1704
i'm down for that. If you're mafia, I tip my hat to you (and i will be forever salty)
watch the wall collide with my fist, mostly over problems that i know i should fix
darthfoley
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States8001 Posts
February 01 2016 06:24 GMT
#1706
excellent
watch the wall collide with my fist, mostly over problems that i know i should fix
darthfoley
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States8001 Posts
February 01 2016 14:06 GMT
#1720
Anyone disagree with a Tumblewood lynch today?

Besides Tumblewood of course
watch the wall collide with my fist, mostly over problems that i know i should fix
darthfoley
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States8001 Posts
February 01 2016 16:08 GMT
#1743
On February 02 2016 00:04 nooniansoong wrote:
*dude do i look like last game to you


Does the game look like last game to you? You didn't lose your roleblocker on D1 like last time. I would actually be very disappointed in you if you were mafia, got 3 townies killed/shot/lynched, and weren't playing more active. The circumstances of the games are quite different, and you know that.
watch the wall collide with my fist, mostly over problems that i know i should fix
darthfoley
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States8001 Posts
February 01 2016 19:00 GMT
#1781
i'll try to post my thoughts before I die. Am busy almost though 4, so it'll be brief without much explanation unfortunately
watch the wall collide with my fist, mostly over problems that i know i should fix
darthfoley
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States8001 Posts
February 01 2016 19:44 GMT
#1795
Okay, here goes. I probably won't be on until after 4, so good luck to the town.

Town list:
MexicanAlien
Eden
Probably Shapelog

Null:
PMT
Jesus
Trfel

Scum:
Tumblewood
Kush

My parting words are: I really liked Eden's case against the two of them. Fits together quite nicely. I think the best play as town is to lynch Tumblewood, see what he flips, and continue from there. He's been MIA similar to Ikido when it was clear he was being lynched, and he never provided much substance. Eden is my strongest TR. Shapelog's filter length almost singlehandedly doesn't make me want to case him, which is effective if mafia, I guess lol.

GG (probably) and good luck to the town.
watch the wall collide with my fist, mostly over problems that i know i should fix
darthfoley
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States8001 Posts
February 01 2016 19:44 GMT
#1796
Look through my filter if you wanted to know what I thought. I didn't really WIFOM people to gauge responses.
watch the wall collide with my fist, mostly over problems that i know i should fix
darthfoley
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States8001 Posts
February 01 2016 19:50 GMT
#1797
Oh, I will also add that I think there's definitely a veteran on the mafia team. Kush, Eden, Trfel fit the bill.
watch the wall collide with my fist, mostly over problems that i know i should fix
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