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On January 06 2016 23:20 NocturneMage wrote:
Some quick thoughts regarding my reads I have so far:
I am getting town feeling from Damdred particularly from the way he is reevaluating people, re-evaluating me. His argument and his basis for fakeclaiming Tictock makes sense from a town perspective I think.
I think Noon is also town for wanting to push harder on Alakaslam, proven by the fact that GB flipped vanilla scum and did not vote Slam.
Alakaslam is for certain mafia (based on my argument that flipped mafia GB sacrificed himself), and for now I will place my vote on him unless I can find someone better. (Mechanically with a cop flip, the godfather is now expendable as is the vig so bussing is still possible.)
Palmar is scum though, and I really think he just managed to weasel his way out of the lynch. In spite of what everyone is saying...something just isn't feeling right.
And Shining, I took a quick look through your filter, I am also getting a sense of town feeling, similar to your play in Dark Tournament.
I am also getting a scum feeling from reading ritoky's reaction to Damdred's initial suggesting why my town game wasn't reflecting in this game. The way ritoky pounced on it looked opportunistic in comparison to how he tried to pounce on me in Fullmetal, the slightest reaction that was non alignment indicative (my reaction to Trfel) he made it so, and here my inactivity in this game cannot be compared to my normal scum meta because it's a larger game (my first one ever), and I'm playing in two games at once (a mistake I won't make again). That is not alignment indicative and his reaction was at best, much less townie than Damdred. The contrast is that Damdred actually presented a basis (casing HTS and getting to work) and ritoky didn't.
That might look OMGUS and all but it gives me some caution with ritoky.
Now I realise these may look a bit shallow but those are my observations from what I've seen in the little activity/interaction I've had in this game. I admit I'm still reading a load of filters.
point 1: i initially gave damdred pushback for calling you scum because i felt from the first filter he linked it was pure activity basis and not so much content; only after the 2nd one did i notice the content being significantly different. you should read it again.
point 2: why am i mafia and don't just have a terrible read on you?
point 3: "presented basis" such as: shining is town cuz feels like it, palmar is mafia cuz feels like it?
this post is kinda mafia meta from NM. if you go read his past games (DB and damdred's filter) the majority of his reads as mafia are extrapolated from the first person. everything begins with me or i and how he is feeling or how people are reading him. as town he actually tends to derive the majority of his reads from association or events within the game.
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On January 06 2016 17:57 Palmar wrote:
I really should be in your townreads ritoky.
over people who in my mind are pretty much mechanically/procedurally cleared? nah
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idk i think the game is actually pretty simple from here. i think there's 5 people who are basically never mafia due to mechanics. only need to find 2 town and 1 of them can potentially be a blue and the game is auto.
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Im playing around with the daily votes and colors right now to see if I can find any trends. So far this is what I've noticed:
GB on day 1 voted for townies: (ticktock, Vivax, Holyflare). The only possible bus he could've done would be on NESS (Nocture Mage now) if NM turns out to be scum. If not this means GB didn't bus a single time on day 1.
On day 2 GB was on ticktock like everyone else,
Day 3 he was on Palmar, and OWS.
Looking at this data, I tend to think GB wasn't bussing at all this game. I guess its quite possible he would bus on Day 3 but I don't think so. If Palmar is town and OWS is town then I think it indicates that NM is probably town as well. Since I think Palmar is town and OWS is basically cleared by SL, I tend to think GB never once voted for his scum teammates.
Another interesting tidbits are where noonian songs votes have been
Day 1: Briefly Voting for Palmar, ends on Slam
Day 2: Votes Self
Day 3: Votes Slam
Kush has for the most part only been voting for Slam. Like non-stop. Call it confirmation bias, but I think this is scum indicative. Day 1 he's safely on neither wagon, day 2 he votes self (which btw I didn't think was allowed and I didn't even notice). Day 3 again voting for Slam. In the event that Slam flips scum (which I think he will) Kush can say he pushed slam, while at the same time he's stayed way out of the spotlight, voting wise).
That's all I got for now, will come back into the thread if I notice anything noteworthy
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Slam's voting patterns unfortunately don't reveal anything. He was on Vivax day 1, didn't vote day 2, and on GB day 3.
On day 1 he didn't switch his vote a single time, and on day 3 he switched from Onegu to GB, to save himself.
Assuming he is scum, the mod might be reluctant to mod kill him on day 2. On the other hand 2 other people weren't voting as well. I don't know if parking your votes and never switching them is alignment indicative for Slam, but that's basically what he's done in this game. Only voted GB to save himself presumably.
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I think Onegu is scum. His fake claim bullshit on day 2 has let him slide by like Damdred. Only unlike Damdred he hasn't done anything since then. His filter is 4 pages long, and he has 1 post on the 4th page. He's not doing anything. On day 3 he switched off of Slam and went to GB (this is true of OO and SL as well). If I work with the assumption that Onegu is scum it leads me to the following scum team:
Onegu
Shining
Slam
Kush
Day 3
Kush parks his vote on Slam and never moves it at all. Shining votes for GB, and Onegu moves from Slam to GB. GB never throws his vote on slam (inexplicably). This gets GB lynched, and protects slam for another day.
I think slam is a scum with a role, and I think we should lynch him today.
##Vote Alakaslam
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That's interesting why do you spend so much time talking about how onegu must be scum but decide that slam has to be scum because of something that isn't true.
When GB ended up being lynched I tried to shennanigan onto slam but the true counter wagon during the day was palmar. You saying slam wad the other wagon is wrong. And when slam had a large amount of votes before we moved to GB palmar was still the counter wagon.
so yeah
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On January 07 2016 07:05 Damdred wrote:
That's interesting why do you spend so much time talking about how onegu must be scum but decide that slam has to be scum because of something that isn't true.
When GB ended up being lynched I tried to shennanigan onto slam but the true counter wagon during the day was palmar. You saying slam wad the other wagon is wrong. And when slam had a large amount of votes before we moved to GB palmar was still the counter wagon.
so yeah
...I was one of the people moving to Slam during that time, don't you remember? I wanted to lynch Palmar but it never really got enough steam. And then when the movement to Slam started, Palmar almost switched (or at least implied he did) but ultimately decided to stay on GB>
What is untrue about what I'm saying?
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Also that's all you have to say Damdred? no other comments?
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Vote Count - Day 4
Alakaslam (4): Onegu, Palmar, nooniansoong, Exo_
ObviousOne (1): ObiWanShinobi
Not Voting (7): damdred, ObviousOne, ritoky, Coagulation, The Shining, NocturneMage, Alakaslam
At this time, Alakaslam is slated to be lynched.
Day 4 ends in on Thursday, Jan 07 11:00pm GMT (GMT+00:00).
The voting thread is here.
Only votes there will be counted.
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Associative reads are a lot easier for scum to make than actual reads for reasons ppl could be scum. Add ExO to the list of ppl scumming me with no reasoning, plus no reaction to the last posts I made to/about him. Instead, for all I can see, I'm scum for lynching scum and because OMGUS.
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1gu is capable of doing nothing as either alignment exo
why am i allowed to shoot if damdred or onegu is mafia? especially since all greens were killed so mafia likely didn't know who was blue at that time (and consequently who to occupy with the rb)
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On January 07 2016 07:31 ritoky wrote:
1gu is capable of doing nothing as either alignment exo
why am i allowed to shoot if damdred or onegu is mafia? especially since all greens were killed so mafia likely didn't know who was blue at that time (and consequently who to occupy with the rb)
walk me through what you're asking here exactly. I know you've talked about it before but walk me through it here
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On January 06 2016 16:29 ritoky wrote:Show nested quote +On January 06 2016 13:17 The Shining wrote:
Town
3. Onegu
7. damdred
11. ritoky
16. coagulation
19. The Shining
20. Palmar
4. nooniansoong
8. Waylanner (replaced by ObviousOne)
9. Exo_
18. ObiWanShinobi
22. n e s s (replaced by NocturneMage)
24. Alakaslam
do you not think obi is green checked? if so, why? if you're wrong on 1 tr who is it?
He probably was but without a gf flip, green checks need to be taken with a grain of salt.
Considering my POE is down to 6, not 4, I'm pretty confident I'm not wrong on any of my TRs. It's the 6 not on the town list I'm grappling with. Being wrong on one of my trs makes my POE 7 to choose from and that just makes the game harder.
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On January 06 2016 16:32 ritoky wrote:Show nested quote +On January 06 2016 15:18 ExO_ wrote:
On my phone. Tomorrow im flying back to Houston, so don't expect lots of activity from me until the following day (or if Im not tired after getting home tomorrow). Im not sure 100% who I think is scum. Since I have to choose today though:
kush
shining
slam
and +1. Im really not all that sure for the last slot at all. why shining? fabrication, omgus, inactivity or?
I'm still on that list but he chose not to answer this, although he's here still throwing out association reads. Noted.
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On January 07 2016 07:33 ExO_ wrote:Show nested quote +On January 07 2016 07:31 ritoky wrote:
1gu is capable of doing nothing as either alignment exo
why am i allowed to shoot if damdred or onegu is mafia? especially since all greens were killed so mafia likely didn't know who was blue at that time (and consequently who to occupy with the rb) walk me through what you're asking here exactly. I know you've talked about it before but walk me through it here
the premise you need to accept is this: mafia don't want to risk being 50/50 shot at night or 100/0 shot at night (1st implies 1 of damd/onegu mafia, 2nd implies both). or rather mafia is generally risk averse to put it more simply.
if you accept that then here's what follows. damdred and onegu do claim stuffz on TT. TT flips blue, i spend the night blustering a bit like i am going to shoot between the two, damdred encourages me to shoot him or onegu. so that night everything is set up so that (in my mind at least) the mafia team should believe with relative certainty that i am shooting between 1gu and damdred.
if that shot is an unfavorable outcome for the mafia team, then they would simply roleblock me. they denied a town kp by lynching TT and denying a second one while potentially saving a teammate is too good of EV for a sensible player to pass up. if me shooting into damdred and 1gu is a favorable outcome aka both are town then it makes perfect sense to leave me unblocked and allow me to shoot a town (and probably subsequently try to ML the other).
i thought of this though and mind gamed them, because to me the EV is too high to pass up RBing me if 1 is mafia so basically if i get blocked i confirm at least 1 is mafia, if i don't get blocked i confirm both are town; and so i shoot outside of the two knowing that if block then 1 is mafia, if not block then both are town.
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On January 07 2016 07:41 The Shining wrote:Show nested quote +On January 06 2016 16:32 ritoky wrote:On January 06 2016 15:18 ExO_ wrote:
On my phone. Tomorrow im flying back to Houston, so don't expect lots of activity from me until the following day (or if Im not tired after getting home tomorrow). Im not sure 100% who I think is scum. Since I have to choose today though:
kush
shining
slam
and +1. Im really not all that sure for the last slot at all. why shining? fabrication, omgus, inactivity or? I'm still on that list but he chose not to answer this, although he's here still throwing out association reads. Noted.
Inactivity, and I don't believe your play right now is consistent with how I think your town play should be. Instead of coming on with a lot of big analysis posts, you got in a mini confrontation with me. Since you've actually started posting I don't think you've helped town.
It's not impossible that you are town, and someone else is scum. But the only other person I think fits with my above line of thinking is ObviousOne. And quite simply I think you're more likely to be scum than he is.
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On January 07 2016 07:42 ritoky wrote:Show nested quote +On January 07 2016 07:33 ExO_ wrote:On January 07 2016 07:31 ritoky wrote:
1gu is capable of doing nothing as either alignment exo
why am i allowed to shoot if damdred or onegu is mafia? especially since all greens were killed so mafia likely didn't know who was blue at that time (and consequently who to occupy with the rb) walk me through what you're asking here exactly. I know you've talked about it before but walk me through it here the premise you need to accept is this: mafia don't want to risk being 50/50 shot at night or 100/0 shot at night (1st implies 1 of damd/onegu mafia, 2nd implies both). or rather mafia is generally risk averse to put it more simply. if you accept that then here's what follows. damdred and onegu do claim stuffz on TT. TT flips blue, i spend the night blustering a bit like i am going to shoot between the two, damdred encourages me to shoot him or onegu. so that night everything is set up so that (in my mind at least) the mafia team should believe with relative certainty that i am shooting between 1gu and damdred. if that shot is an unfavorable outcome for the mafia team, then they would simply roleblock me. they denied a town kp by lynching TT and denying a second one while potentially saving a teammate is too good of EV for a sensible player to pass up. if me shooting into damdred and 1gu is a favorable outcome aka both are town then it makes perfect sense to leave me unblocked and allow me to shoot a town (and probably subsequently try to ML the other). i thought of this though and mind gamed them, because to me the EV is too high to pass up RBing me if 1 is mafia so basically if i get blocked i confirm at least 1 is mafia, if i don't get blocked i confirm both are town; and so i shoot outside of the two knowing that if block then 1 is mafia, if not block then both are town.
It relies on you being right about convincing scum you are going to shoot Damdred or Onegu. I don't really remember at this point how everything went down, but are you sure scum would've believed you?
Who claimed first, Damdred or Onegu?
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On January 06 2016 23:01 nooniansoong wrote:Show nested quote +On January 06 2016 15:22 The Shining wrote:
lol I love how according to everyone scumming me, I'm apparently bussing the rest of my team since I share a lot of your reads
lolololololololololololololololol I'm not interacting with you because we aren't on at the same time. At this point in the game scum has to bus. Scum is going to have a scumlist that has mostly scum with one or two town thrown in there, just because many of the players left look very town. In the situation where I am scum, wouldn't I also be busing the rest of my team, according to you?
I'm rarely on when anyone else but ppl like ritoky have no problem throwing questions out to me. If anything, doing so and not getting a response from me could make me more scummy for ignoring it or not reading thread. But you haven't done that. You're just content to let me sit there on your POE and hope someone pushes me so you can vote me and say "well he's in my POE, that's why I voted him"
And yes, it's possible you'd be bussing some of your team but I'm not down to 4 ppl on my POE so it's possible I'm wrong on you or someone else. But you have me with 3 people I'm willing to lynch, implying you think you have the game solved alrdy. I'm not nearly that confident and idc about admitting that
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On January 07 2016 07:51 ExO_ wrote:Show nested quote +On January 07 2016 07:42 ritoky wrote:On January 07 2016 07:33 ExO_ wrote:On January 07 2016 07:31 ritoky wrote:
1gu is capable of doing nothing as either alignment exo
why am i allowed to shoot if damdred or onegu is mafia? especially since all greens were killed so mafia likely didn't know who was blue at that time (and consequently who to occupy with the rb) walk me through what you're asking here exactly. I know you've talked about it before but walk me through it here the premise you need to accept is this: mafia don't want to risk being 50/50 shot at night or 100/0 shot at night (1st implies 1 of damd/onegu mafia, 2nd implies both). or rather mafia is generally risk averse to put it more simply. if you accept that then here's what follows. damdred and onegu do claim stuffz on TT. TT flips blue, i spend the night blustering a bit like i am going to shoot between the two, damdred encourages me to shoot him or onegu. so that night everything is set up so that (in my mind at least) the mafia team should believe with relative certainty that i am shooting between 1gu and damdred. if that shot is an unfavorable outcome for the mafia team, then they would simply roleblock me. they denied a town kp by lynching TT and denying a second one while potentially saving a teammate is too good of EV for a sensible player to pass up. if me shooting into damdred and 1gu is a favorable outcome aka both are town then it makes perfect sense to leave me unblocked and allow me to shoot a town (and probably subsequently try to ML the other). i thought of this though and mind gamed them, because to me the EV is too high to pass up RBing me if 1 is mafia so basically if i get blocked i confirm at least 1 is mafia, if i don't get blocked i confirm both are town; and so i shoot outside of the two knowing that if block then 1 is mafia, if not block then both are town. It relies on you being right about convincing scum you are going to shoot Damdred or Onegu. I don't really remember at this point how everything went down, but are you sure scum would've believed you? Who claimed first, Damdred or Onegu?
gu claimed red, tt claimed gs, damdred cc'd gs.
i think i am right.
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EPT
