EPTDark Tournament Mini Mafia
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Fidei86
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So that people know, the people in the game I know best are Half the Sky and Rels. I've been town with both, supervised both when I GMed and was Mafia with Rels once. I also have played with a lot of the rest of you before, including Moosy, Lightning Strike, Onegu and Damdred. I don't know DYH, trfel, dis, Kush or Palmar very well. Early on, I'd say the easiest scum read is Shining. He posted asking why he was here, then about trumpets, then he went quiet. It's early, so it's lean. DYH's question of Rels seems towny, although I also think Rels' entrance was kind of towny, albeit wrongheaded. When he's Mafia Rels buddies up with everyone he likes and relentlessly fights with anyone who calls him out. I wouldn't expect a Mafia Rels to jump in and start picking fights so early, even about blues. Everyone else is null. I'm on GMT so it's way past my bed-time. Night all. | ||
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So I have two competing thoughts about Shining. The first is that I entirely agree with Palmar about why Shining's play makes no sense. I'd also add that it's even more strange that his 'read' on me seemed almost entirely OMGUS, but then as soon as HTS made a point against me in her thread entry, he adopted it and parroted it as the new reason he didn't like me. The second is that he and Palmar seem very invested in this fight - much more so than seems warranted by the early stage of the game. They have been back and forth, what, five or six times now? Almost to the exclusion of everyone else. The 'better' play as town is plainly to apologise for bad thread entry (which Shining did, admittedly, do) and then to turn attention elsewhere (which neither Palmar or Shining have done). The only thing I have to say in Shining's defence is that his rebuttal's read very heartfelt. That can be something that is hard to replicate as mafia, and it's giving me pause here. I would say Shining is a very slight scum read for me, but I wouldn't vote for him as yet. Also - morning Rels. Re my read on you - I've watched you play enough games as mafia now to think I have a reasonable handle on your meta. Yes, you are totally capable of breaking your meta, but your "I give no fucks" tone and posting content is town Rels to me. Lightning Strike's entrance seems way over the top to me, especially for him. Usually he comes in and posts some relatively anodyne 1-liners, whereas here he came in with a big long paragraph attacking someone (Trfel I think) for calling him out earlier. In my experience, town LS is much more relaxed and jokey, until he starts getting attacked seriously (which I don't think had happened by that point). Then again, LS is primo lynch-bait D1, so I'll try and avoid getting too tunnelled for now. My one heretical thought at the moment is that Dani might be mafia. I know, I know. It's more of a hunch than a real read, but I'm just not feeling it from her posts so far. Town Dani that I've known usually goes in one direction, then another, and she has an almost relentless quality. Too many of her posts last night were backtracking on things she had already said, and it's not clear she reached anything much of a landing point. It could be because it's early and because she's tired though. Moosy is posting the same kind of rubbish that he posted in our first Newbie game together. In that game he was new and was inadvertently trying some sort of Chezinu--style baits. Which, in fairness, worked. Then when he was mafia and I was town, he was super super serious all game. Obviously if he doesn't contribute further then at some point we will have to lynch him for being useless / lynch all lurkers, but for now I give him a slight town read. | ||
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On December 01 2015 19:07 Rels wrote: @Fidei: OK. What part of my first post was "wrongheaded" or whatever was the word you used ? This was actually a mistake on my part. I found myself totally agreeing with your view on the blue claim, but then someone pointed out that the mafia would know the setup anyway. That is usually how it is. But then I read the OP a couple of times and I couldn't see anywhere that the mafia would know. So perhaps it wasn't wrongheaded. Had you read the OP when you made that post? | ||
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On December 01 2015 18:48 Trfel wrote: Fidei86, did you see the WIFOM that MoosyDoosy was using before the game? Given how aware he is of his own meta, and the events of last game (a lengthy discussion about whether MoosyDoosy would intentionally be useless as mafia to trick everyone using his meta), are you still happy with this read? And if this is a read that you are happy with it now, imagine that this continues for another day or two. Why would you then need to lynch MoosyDoosy? Why would this make your townread invalid? Anyway, I really need to go to bed. Good night. Everything you're saying is true. Moosy being useless isn't alignment indicative. I see no reason to try and get a read from the big pile of crap he has posted so far. It could easily come from either alignment. My view at the moment is to see how it plays out over the rest of the day. | ||
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On December 01 2015 19:17 Rels wrote: Yes. I don't like that useless question that follows the explanation of what I should say to be townie. It's not useless. If you were Mafia and you hadn't received a post, you'd know it wasn't there. The rest of us assumed that it was there, because it usually is. Then again you'd be unlikely to fall into that trap, so maybe it was useless. Oh well. | ||
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On December 01 2015 19:43 Rels wrote: I reread her posts. Can you give me some examples ? I'll re-read them at lunch. Promise. | ||
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On December 01 2015 21:16 Half the Sky wrote: Heads up, work has been borderline insane today and I'm not feeling well on top of that. I should recover by this evening to catch up. <3 feel better soon | ||
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I have looked over HTS' posts, and I am more okay with #209 now that I've read it a few times. There's nothing particularly objectionable in there. At #219, I disagree with her read on the Palmar / Shining interaction. There is something very strange about Shining's progression, and HTS just skates past it. She then at #224, #237 and #246 goes forward and then back on on Trfel. She asks Shining about people other than Palmar, but noticeably doesn't ask Palmar about people other than Shining. I know that HTS is very much a fan of Palmar's scum play. I know that she has previously had him as a coach and that she generally speaks highly of him as a player. It is strange to me that she almost specifically avoids interacting with him, or making any comments about him. Honestly, if she can't read him, it seems like the rest of us don't have a chance. None of the above is a guaranteed scum-tell. But I find it somewhat suspicious. Town HTS nitpicks as well, but I just always get the sense that she is going somewhere with her thoughts. That seems lacking to me. | ||
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On December 01 2015 23:21 Half the Sky wrote: A bit correction/clarification here. I think highly of geript's scum play, it is he who I've had as a coach. Not Palmar. I had geript/sicklucker as mafia coaches. That said, Palmar is a good player as both alignments. A key thing I learnt about Palmar is that you can't meta him easily because he has played many different ways as both alignments. I learnt that the hard way when we mislynched him in Hammertime and in the few ways I've seen him play from the hosting world (Down Under 3) I didn't find him terribly easy to read as town. The manner in which Palmar hit up Shining is, yes, out of the blue but also not outside the realm of town Palmar which is why I waited to see if/how when he broke down the case. It was also not unreasonable for Shining in that regard to say he fails to comment on anything but him. On my way home early, the lightheadedness is real. And thanks James. I'll vent on Steam about RL if I get the chance. Ah, sorry for the mistake viz geript. I suppose my point still stands though, to the extent that Palmar is (a) a very experienced player and (b) one you've played with a lot. Your analysis of him makes sense - it is too early to reach definitive conclusions on anyone, let alone strong players with the ability to shift self-meta. But what is your gut instinct on him right now? | ||
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On December 02 2015 02:45 kushm4sta wrote: Yes I use my own experience as scum to predict how other people will act as scum. But actually I was accusing him of a standard scumtell, over defense. Don't put too much stock in what I say, because I don't have any sort of handle on this game so far. I am looking forward to playing in a few days after the herd has been thinned. My vote stays on Rels for now. Probably he isn't scum but maybe he is and on my phone it takes a lot of effort to change my vote. Okay this is probably the worst thing I've ever read from someone on this site ever. You want to lynch someone who you don't think is scum because you can't be bothered to change your vote??? | ||
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Obviously that read was super early on you Rels. I don't think the post you quoted necessarily disproves what I said though. Totally you were a lot more combative in your opening than I have seen previously - there is a difference between scum reading someone and calling someone out. The thing that concerns me about your play over the last day or so is that as scum you typically just nitpick/chase up nitpicks, and do so relentlessly. It's good scum play, as people can't say you're not contributing. I think you're probably town now, with the only reason being that I think scum Rels probably doesn't pick a fight with me, at least not this early. As you say, we have played a fair bit together, so I think you'd be wary of me. That's hardly a good reason, as it requires you having a high opinion of me. >> | ||
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On December 02 2015 19:37 Rels wrote: Rereading that, that's super wrong. That's exactly what I did to rayn in that resistance game you hosted, who is also a player with whom I've played a fair bit together. I think you're stretching to find reasons to townread me. ##Unvote ##Vote Fidei86 Eh that's true. But you have done that in every game we've been in - gone at it with Rayn I mean. Even SOTW, where he ended up trusting you with the game. Rayn is easy to manipulate and you figured him out (hell, we laughed about it at length in the Mafia QT). | ||
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On December 03 2015 02:54 disformation wrote: Hm... looking at Fidei86. That is not an easy one, I def. like the first ~ 1 1/2 pages of his filter up to the post from earlier today. You know that one: + Show Spoiler + On December 02 2015 19:05 Fidei86 wrote: Eh, I went to the cinema yesterday evening and then spent the rest of it catching up with friends. I have time at lunch time and will catch up. My old town meta, insofar as you think it was different, was before I totally fucked up the last Newbie game, which has really changed the way I view everything (and made me much less sure about myself). Obviously that read was super early on you Rels. I don't think the post you quoted necessarily disproves what I said though. Totally you were a lot more combative in your opening than I have seen previously - there is a difference between scum reading someone and calling someone out. The thing that concerns me about your play over the last day or so is that as scum you typically just nitpick/chase up nitpicks, and do so relentlessly. It's good scum play, as people can't say you're not contributing. I think you're probably town now, with the only reason being that I think scum Rels probably doesn't pick a fight with me, at least not this early. As you say, we have played a fair bit together, so I think you'd be wary of me. That's hardly a good reason, as it requires you having a high opinion of me. >> Not super sure what to make of it right now, since the earlier parts of his posts gave me a strong town vibe. Maybe too tunneled on Rels? Currently on 12/26, but caught up with thread. Unfortunately my play style tends to be to focus more on the people I think I have a handle on. When there are players I don't know (eg you, disinformation) or that I struggle with (Damdred, Palmar), I have a habit of just parking them in the "figure out later" pile. It's a lazy trait, admittedly. Will try and snap out of it with my next analysis. | ||
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The only reason not to policy lynch Onegu is that he will almost certainly be replaced for inactivity. I'm probably going to put my vote on Moosy once i finish my run through. He has been useless and I can't stand people who put keeping their own meta pure ahead of winning the f***ing game. | ||
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Shining - He was winning townie plaudits for his fight with Palmar, but rather than carry it on (and continuing to crap up the thread) he stopped (or at least tried to) and gave a good read post at #229. I like his read on dis, which I agree with. He asks Kush and Moosy to do more, at a stage where the better Mafia play would have been to ignore them and let town coalesce towards a "lynch all idiots" lynch. (Disclaimer: I previously called him out for not stopping the fight, but a re-read of his filter shows he was trying to stop it but Palmar wouldn't let it go.) Trfel - Rels is right, for someone with over 3k posts Trfel sure apologises a lot. He seems to have some sort of reason for his early LS read, which I don't really care about. I actually like is read on Rels "why is he just throwing shit everywhere." Maybe town side of null. His later posts show quite nuanced reasoning. Moved to town for now, otherwise mostly everyone would be null Dis - he and Trfel are playing similarly in my view. Both reading the thread, giving thoughts relatively fearlessly. Nothing that particularly jumps out as scummy. Lean read. Null Damdred - underwhelmed by his reads, which seem to mostly have been of Shining. Need to filter dive. No sense in lynching today. Damdred - whole filter is super underwhelming. Says he has town reads, but then just gives me and Shining without and further explanation. Lacklustre but posts come off as condescending. Scum side of null but wouldn't lynch yet. HTS - I am scared of a Mafia Dani, and that is probably colouring my read of her. One thing I'm not sure of is why she voted for DYH having just excoriated kush for his dumbass post about voting for Rels. Palmar - his entire first act was fighting with Shining. He made his point, and I agreed with it. But he kept pushing and pushing beyond when it was reasonable. I also didn't like that he called my first post "fine" and "null" but at another point said I was a "tow read". Says he doesn't want to lynch into me, then later says I'd be an okay lynch? Huh? I had him in Mafia, but his last few reads on Damdred and Rels - I'm all over the place on Rels. I've made the point that Mafia Rels tends to buddy harder than he is here. But in this game he seems to be talking in complete parallel to the thread, raising points others aren't but not engaging in the same sort of manner I would expect from a town Rels. But I actually really like his DYH read and vote. Mafia LS - his entry list was all nulls ("I need more time on Moosy" -- no shit!) and basic basic points that display no particular thought. #431 says the game is hard but hasn't really given a read on anyone? O Useless Kush - he is going to have to do a lot to get back from "not changing my Rels vote even though he might be town because changing votes is hard" Moosy - only sensible post is pushing Shining on his read of me. When he'd explained it like 8 times and I'd only made one post. DYH - Lots of town-reads and afk promises. Hardly encouraging. Was not really a fan of his Trfel read. Onegu. It's O-word dude. Hands up if you're surprised. | ||
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It's my mum's birthday party this evening so I won't be on until just before the lynch. I will try to check in when I can (bathroom breaks etc). | ||
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On December 03 2015 04:28 Trfel wrote: Wait, Fidei86, weren't you the person who said you wanted to read Rels as town because you like him as a person? How does that come from the same person who is scared of Half the Sky being mafia, I would assume that you want her to be town as well? Well, I perhaps should have said "I want them to be town" rather than "I want to read them as town". Rels and Dani are two of the best town players I know. | ||
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On December 03 2015 06:27 Palmar wrote: This is 100% a policy lynch. That being said, intentionally bad players should be policy lynched. I see no effort at all from moosy trying to actually help this game. Catching up. This. | ||
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On December 03 2015 07:02 Half the Sky wrote: There you are. Can you explain why you are voting Moosy when you have a pretty fleshed out read on LS? You are saying you aren't confident on LS but your points are pretty clear in your list post. Every game I've ever played in people have pushed LS D1 and he has been town. That gives me pause. And we have Moosy, who has literally made no effort whatsoever in this game - he is basically trolling us. We simply cannot take him forward in this game and hope to win. He has had two days to do something constructive, or to show a change in tone. He has not. I actually don't agree with Trfel that MD's play makes him 100% Mafia or anything else. I think it's possible he's Mafia. It's possible he's not. But in the long run, I we cannot ever successfully read someone who apparent holds this game in contempt. | ||
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On December 03 2015 07:22 Trfel wrote: That reaction seems very similar to what I would expect from LightningStrike as town. Why do you think otherwise? I remember one game we played not too long ago where every time someone suspected him he accused them of being on crack. Okay that's just not true Trfel. I'm getting cold feet because LS usually fights his corner on somewhat sensible grounds. I've never seen a response like that before. Hmm. | ||
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On December 03 2015 07:27 Half the Sky wrote: I'd have to disagree, he lost his head to the point in Himalayas that Fecalfeast and I warned and took post-game action on him. It is not unprecedented. But Dani would you not agree that usually he puts more of an effort than this? Thinking about switching. | ||
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On December 03 2015 07:28 Half the Sky wrote: You were in Himalayas and so was he, surely you remember when he lost the plot? Yeah but it was more hurt. Here he just sounds irrationally angry. | ||
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On December 03 2015 07:33 The Shining wrote: ...I'm still on the fence with you. Don't vote LS and make this harder for me sigh ? Care to explain. | ||
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On December 03 2015 07:39 The Shining wrote: You were an early scumread of mine. You also scumleaned me. Palmar basically said I OMGUSd you and him for bad reasons and I explained why I thought that one early post felt scummy to me. Ive been pressed for time since I got back today because I'm at work but I skimmed your filter and saw you towned me through that Palmar exchange. But I made some posts a while ago asking Damdred to explain his TR on you. I still have my doubts on you. But since you've been here, you haven't tried to engage me on my read until now. And you're considering voting LS, who I'm considering voting. So do I want to vote with someone I have doubts about? That makes this hard for me. I scum read you about two pages or so into the game, on relatively scant evidence. But I've then reconsidered that read, in light of what you've done since (and for different reasons than others have given). It's not just you and me - it's a bunch of people. But the issue is with so many quiet and unengaged people, it's tough to take a view on whether this is town shenanigans or whether this is just town burying idiot town. Eh. Let me look at LS' filter once more. | ||
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On December 03 2015 07:57 The Shining wrote: Fuck it. I'm down. Shenanny onto kush. Let's do it. O.O Well this will be an interesting re-read in the morning whatever happens. | ||
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On December 03 2015 08:08 Damdred wrote: LS has basically mod confirmed himself as town. That's pretty shitty but we have to work with it I guess. ???? What | ||
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Sorry kush. | ||
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On December 03 2015 08:12 Rels wrote: I try to shenanni on DYH and nothing happens. fidei says something about kush and everybody switches. fuck that I should have yelled You switched... | ||
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On December 03 2015 07:33 The Shining wrote: ...I'm still on the fence with you. Don't vote LS and make this harder for me sigh *sigh* work. Back now. First question I have is for LS. Dude. You were scum reading me all day, and I was one of your few relatively solid reads. But then you sheeped me very early with relatively little reason. Why the sudden change of heart? | ||
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Rels is probably town for this. | ||
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On December 03 2015 07:49 disformation wrote: Hm, I don't know. I don't really feel the town vibe in his post. Like the capslock turn me off, I guess. Also had to read it twice to guess what his stance on Damdred is. But I haven't played a game with LightningStrike. I think I shadowed HtS in a game where LightningStrike was gunsmith, but I don't remember/recall him being that emotional. What gives me a bit of a pause is that now nearly everyone is voting for LS. -.- I think this probably makes disfo town as well. | ||
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On December 03 2015 08:10 Trfel wrote: Everything about his play says town except for the thing that I quoted. I actually think that the thing that I quoted is extremely scummy, such that he can't be town. Do you think otherwise, and if so can you please explain it to me so that I can be comfortable with my LightningStrike townread? Also, NocturneMage, I apologize for you having replaced into a mafia slot. At least I have a fair opportunity for revenge. Trfel you were convinced LS was scum, urged people not to shift off him, weren't convinced by the "mod confirmed" argument, but then moved off him and onto MD? Yes you were on MD before LS, but why? | ||
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On December 03 2015 08:18 The Shining wrote: Trfel. You think LS is scum now. Especially after his comments regarding lynching Moosy after his flip, but saying he's just voting Moosy to save himself. But you just said NM replaced into a scumslot. Does this mean you think both lynches were scum before the shennany onto kush? Also this. 0.0 didn't think of this this way, but pretty sure TS is town now. | ||
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On December 04 2015 08:20 Trfel wrote: NocturneMage is right, Fidei86 should be added to this list. I really don't know about Half the Sky. It's very hard for me to separate the play from the cold/sickness/whatever. I'll definitely take another look, though. Tempted to lynch one of Half the Sky/NocturneMage and then the other if they flip town, but that seems bad; the scum should be able to be found without having to do that. I'm going to assume for now that NocturneMage is good enough as town that he wouldn't get this wrong, for simplicity's sake, but I'll re-evaluate this assumption when he makes his case. I'm actually almost completely sold on this case. If Dani wasn't having an awful time with the sickness, I would be very confident she was mafia. The key points for me are: 1. Tone. Her posts have a lifeless quality, but it's not clear she actually believe anything she's posting. I mentioned this earlier. 2. At EOD she was 'voting' for LS but wasn't looking for another candidate, then moved onto kush. I've done multiple EOD's with her and usually she's actively trying to solve. It's not clear that she was trying to solve. Both of those things could be explained by themselves viz the sickness, but both of them together, combined with her actually okay activity? I think Alex might well be right on this. I need to read her filter more carefully, but that's for tomorrow. Also can we have a new rule that only people who didn't blindly follow me into the EOD lynch can call me scum? (Okay, MD and Trfel did not follow me, but that precludes a decent chunk of the rest of you). | ||
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Also if I was scum I would 100% have shot Dani. Gameplay regardless, scum Fidei shoots HTS n1 every game. Every time. So there's that. | ||
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On December 04 2015 08:38 The Shining wrote: Like I am looking forward to NMs case, I don't see much reason to town HtS either but Trfels change in tone here, I just don't really understand. How does Damdred being the NK and NM making a post without actually making a case yet absolve Trfel of his 100% read oin MD/NM without any sort of response to NM? Has anyone ever played with super tryhard Trfel as town? The closest I've seen to this is Kita in Personalities, but that was just one post. This is way more. | ||
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On December 04 2015 08:55 DoYouHas wrote: The is a bad association, not just because they are unflipped. The problem with HtS's EoD isn't what you are saying here. The problem is that her sentiment and action don't match. Her sentiment is that she has major doubts that the lynch is a good one. Her action is to stay on the wagon when she has plenty of reasons, based on her own reads, to go for another lynch on me, kush, or moosy. This is positioning for a townflip while doing nothing substantial to stop it. Heh, that actually makes a lot more sense than my point. Damn. What was HTS' read of Kush before EOD *goes to filter* | ||
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On December 04 2015 09:00 NocturneMage wrote: No. This is false. Soft pushing is an indicator that you are likely mafia if/when she flips. You didn't go anywhere. She is my first priority but you're next after her  Also last point is false, you endgamed her once, so no you didn't. That's a terrible metric anyhow as nightkills are generally team decisions. I'm not sure you can call it "end gaming" when the game ends on N3 with a 6 man soup. And for the record, I did try and NK her in that game but Rels overrode me (I think). | ||
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1. What is your case on Dani? Because I personally find it extremely weird that you come into the thread with a "100% Dani is Mafia" read, but don't really flesh it out. The first thing you said substantively was basically copied from someone else. In Resistance V your read on her was spot on, and it was quick and to the point. Ditto on your reads when we played together in Newbie - the Fidei throw edition. The more you go on, the more it sort of seems like you're trying to get her lynched because she might correctly read you. 2. I don't think it's likely that Dani would intentionally play up being ill to win a game. She has certainly liberally sprinkled Og knowledge in game before. But here it seems like pretty much every other post she makes references it. I really hope she gets well soon (<3) but is it possible she is subconsciously playing it up to win sympathy? | ||
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Alex - NocturneMage James - Me | ||
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On December 04 2015 09:25 Fecalfeast wrote: Why did I scowl so hard after reading this post? That was weird maybe because it sort of reads like I (a) say you all followed me into the lynch and (b) it actually wasn't my fault. I'm sort of trying to have my cake and eat it. You're right. I wasn't the first person to have the idea, but I probably was the one that caused it. I was wrong and I'm sorry. | ||
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On December 04 2015 09:34 NocturneMage wrote: Okay seriously, go ahead and lynch me. I truly don't give a fuck. Just allow me to find the other two mafia first before you kill me. Nobody is talking about lynching you. I wanted to probe your thoughts a little bit, because your writing so far has been a little less ... I don't know, maybe dispassionate? Insightful? I just have never seen you go after a lynch with such abandon before. And if you don't like my reasons for pushing you a little bit, then please do scum read me. But hopefully you'll see them for what they are. | ||
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On December 04 2015 09:34 LightningStrike wrote: Hey guys I sorry I didn't post anything after my last post but it was because of real life(my mom taken me to lighting store and out to dinner although the food was good) but seeing Damdred die confirmed my read on him at least. Yes he did scumread HTS and DYH and both of them would have good motivation to shoot him. But otherwise this game turned out to be interesting hmmm. *Facepalm* | ||
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On December 04 2015 09:37 NocturneMage wrote: That was in response to Trfel, not you. Trfel is either insane or mafia but I'll have some time to figure him out I think. Idk. Right now LS/Trfel/Dani are my top three scum reads. I think Rels, Disfo, Shining, FF and DYH are towny. I don't like Alex's thread entry but I'm willing to give him time to adjust. I also think it's really unlikely that he's Mafia with Dani. Palmar has AFK'd a lot recently. That's where my head is at. | ||
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I'd lynch him last though, 1. because he could be erratic town and 2. I'd feel horrible if we mislynched him, given how much work he has put into the game (that's actually a crap reason, but there we go). | ||
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On December 04 2015 09:43 The Shining wrote: Fuuuuuuuuu. I'm out of thread for an hour or so. I'm at work as usual and UPS(package delivery service) just slammed me with over 40 boxes to scan, log and store. I hate holiday season. NM I think I like where you're going with this HtS read. But you did promise a full case. Are you still going to do that? Trfels last post on HtS read progression makes me think he's tryharding and idk if I see scumTrfel going this hard, so maybe you're both onto something with her. I'll have to read her filter for myself. I'm liking DYH's last few posts too. I'm also not buying the LS confirmed town because of EoD stuff. I don't want to delve too much into NK analysis because I'm not good at it but there is also reason for LS to kill Damdred and immortalize that read if he's scum. I guess right now my most suspicious lie in HTS, LS, Fidei, Palmar. Rels and disfo is middle ground. NM, FF, Trfel, DYH likely town. I'll be back Just want to point out LS that you and me have basically exactly the same read list (other than you scumming me and me scumming Trfel). And you followed me onto Kush. And you were going to join me on LS when I was thinking about it. It just seems to me that if you're Mafia, I must be very wrong in how I'm reading this game. The same must go the other way right? | ||
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On December 04 2015 09:47 Fidei86 wrote: Just want to point out LS that you and me have basically exactly the same read list (other than you scumming me and me scumming Trfel). And you followed me onto Kush. And you were going to join me on LS when I was thinking about it. It just seems to me that if you're Mafia, I must be very wrong in how I'm reading this game. The same must go the other way right? Uh, meant "Just want to point out TS..." Not LS. Obv. | ||
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1. Alex is best placed to read Dani. In games he has obs'd, he has consistently been able to correctly read her. That includes games where she has been unwell/super busy. 2. Town Alex is not usually this impulsive or sure. In fact, I know that he has been seeking advice on how to try and get his scum-reads lynched. 3. Dani is unwell and he is best placed to be able to correctly gauge the impact of that on her play and also the correct level of in-game slack to apply. The conclusion I draw from this is that it is very likely at least one of Dani/Alex is Mafia. Either Alex is Mafia and trying to get town Dani out having not had the chance to NK her, or Alex is town with a correct scum read on Dani. There is a possibility he is bussing her to get cred, particularly in circumstances where she may not be able to keep playing the game and thought the bus would be better than having someone replace into her slot. Put another way, if Alex is town then he would NOT post something that sure unless he was absolutely convinced Dani is Mafia. In those circumstances, we should absolutely trust his read (especially as a few of us have been slightly scumming her). | ||
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On December 04 2015 21:50 Palmar wrote: Also, if you can't figure out my alignment that's on you, not me. Town hero and eternal leader Damdred figured it out. Wow you actually do have four pages of filter. Okay. But I do disagree with you viz you "being towny" enough. It's actually not. When you get mislynched its almost always 50% on the idiots who lynched you and 50% on you for being scummy town. That's a really important thing that lots of people forget as town. | ||
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On December 04 2015 22:05 Palmar wrote: Dude... http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=10890802 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=10936906 I'm literally the goddamn prophet of "if you get lynched it's your own damn fault". That ties very well into what I was saying earlier about why I should never be vigged. Wow. Okay. Looks like I was preaching to the choir there. | ||
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On December 04 2015 22:06 Palmar wrote: 100% town palmar based on damdred dead. You can't argue with science bitch. Almost as convincing as BH's rng theory. | ||
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On December 04 2015 22:07 Palmar wrote: I am only vaguely aware of rels' playstyle. In general, the cases, including the one against me, he built during the night felt unforced and genuine. I have no idea how good he is at not just posting, but actually posting decently, as mafia, but I'm going to roll with it for now. We can always lynch him later. Do you think he should be a prime candidate to be lynched today? because if you don't, then why do you have a problem with me giving him a tentative pass? No he is not a prime candidate to get lynched. I'm sorry, I shouldn't have put it so combatively. If you haven't played with Rels then you wouldn't necessarily know this. But I think it's important context for you in reading his posts. He massively try-hards as scum. He has the longest filter of anyone in SOTW 2. Hell, Rayn trusted him with the entire game. In resistance he never gave up even after town leader Dani had him absolutely on toast. I don't know how I might go about catching scum Rels. But an activity-meter is absolutely not a way. Your second point about his posting seeming unforced is probably a much better way of thinking about it. If he makes it much further I will go and re-read our Personalities game, where he carried town for three days after all the other town leaders died. | ||
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On December 04 2015 10:18 The Shining wrote: Actually your thinking about joining the LS wagon is why I was hesitant and asking so many questions beforehand. I was weighing my suspicions on you vs the case and points on him. As for having a lot of the same reads, if I'm being honest, I'm never too confident in them before first scumflip, as my association cases and late game play is where I excel at. D1/D2, I'm used to being wrong and sometimes scum siding on reads without realizing it. So even with our reads being similar, you're in my suspicious pile until I read your filter and can figure out how you arrived to those reads. As for the Trfel read, he's got 8 pages at the start of D2 and 8 pages total his last scum game. Like I've pointed a few issues I had with some of his reads and posts but he hasn't backed down from me and his willingness to explain and then put in work on his reads, like the stuff on HTS, is giving me trouble on where the scum motivation could come from. He's been under a lot of pressure this game and even though there are some similarities from his last scumgame, one thing that recently stands out to me is the amount of sensible content he's putting out, even under pressure. I don't agree with everything, and had issues with his dropping his NM scumread pretty easily, but its more about the way he's done it and explained it. I could see it coming from town trying to evaluate what's in the thread and I thinking he could be wrong, after being wrong on Damdred. And following onto kush was a risky play that I took because I didn't like his switch. But you being the instigator before me is one of the main reasons I'm still suspicious. Like I do take some responsibility for it but it also surprised me how many more people were willing to follow once I switched, instead of when you did. Like if you're scum, its possible your team waits for a town to switch(like me) and then pin the responsibility on me(like HtS did). *facepalm* TS is your reason for rejecting my argument really because you don't trust your reads because it is early? What makes you think town-Fidei would have necessarily any better or keener insights than you? We're all working off imperfect information here, but the fact that we are responding to everything exactly the same way makes me give you serious town cred. Also, doing yourself down to de-value your reads is a Mafia trait. If you don't have confidence in yourself nobody will follow you. Also, re the lynch, I have openly admitted that I was one of the first to move, and was probably one of the key reasons it happened. Unless I'm scum with LS then I don't see why scum-me would bother. But more than that, isn't it incredibly unlikely that within 3 minutes I'd come up with a plan that relied upon townies following me, in order to achieve something? Like, I don't think that responsibility for a late moving lynch is AI by itself. If LS flips red then I admit I look worse (but otoh I think he probably is Mafia, I just got carried away in the moment, and was wrong). | ||
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On December 04 2015 22:20 Palmar wrote: I would like your input on a) do you believe my perception of her filter is correct b) do you think it's relevant Hmmmmm. I think your perception is entirely correct. I have played with Dani twice now I think, and GM'd her once. By way of background, she cares a lot about this game and always plays hard and to win. She has played through some tough personal times. When we were town together in Newbie Mafia XII (I think) she found scum EOD1 and then carried town the rest of the way. She said something when she was casing scum reads, "maybe the noose will tell us the truth" or similar. I don't remember much of her Personalities game because she was N1'd, but I remember making a long post saying why I thought she was town. I should probably go and look it up. But what I would say about those games is that she had tonnes of energy. She was scum-hunting relentlessly. Even in Resistance, where I knew her alignment, she fought through a Rayn tunnel and nearly solved at the end. Here, it's not clear she is actually trying to solve at all. I do think there is a reasonable chance that she's playing sub-optimally because she is unwell. But she has actually had decent bouts of activity, and has a decent length filter. So I'm not sure how much water that excuse holds. Also, and this is a point I want to emphasise, THERE IS NO WAY TOWN ALEX COMES INTO THIS GAME AND HARD SCUM READS DANI UNLESS HE IS 1,000% CONVINCED SHE IS MAFIA. I would bet next month's salary on his read either being correct, or alternatively him being Mafia and trying to get Dani killed (either as a bus or because she could out him). | ||
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There is something off about Alex's play as well. But I am much less experienced with him than I am with Dani. | ||
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On December 04 2015 23:08 Rels wrote: Well, that simplifies the day. One of NM and HTS is mafia; maybe both (but unlikely). Cool stuff (= Great minds, Rels. | ||
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On December 04 2015 23:16 NocturneMage wrote: There is not a snowball's chance in hell Daniele is town. Just vote her and be done with it. I'm on page 25 and I'm trying to fully catch up between seminars here. Trfel is either mafia or insane and I'm leaning towards Mafia. Does a Trfel/HTS team make sense, that is another question. LS is mafia because his filter is trash and knowing that mafia HTS modconfirmed herself in her first student game (as town) and knowing firsthand the quality of her coaching and knowing how intelligent she is (both in game and in life) it is EXTREMELY LIKELY she coached him to modconfirm himself. There is a reasonable basis I think in the votes, I know I previously looked at HTS position from town LS but it's just as likely with Mafia LS, she would have been one of the last on LS which indicates a bus. Like I said she is a weasel as mafia, she motivates her teammates she will absolutely coach LS to pull that shit - she did it herself. Alex what do you think about my analysis of your accusing Dani? | ||
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On December 04 2015 23:37 Rels wrote: I think you're both wrong. fidei, there is nothing to explain really; rsoultin and HTS both said that LS has a super hard time lying. Knowing this, it's super unlikely the "mod confirm" thing is WIFOM. Rels that is just dumb. His "lie" was to say "I'm town". If you can't do that as Mafia then ... And actually I would say your analysis is EVEN MORE likely to make him Mafia. It's easy to lie and say you're Mafia, but it's hard to lie on reads you don't believe in. LS has no reads. That's what I'm saying. | ||
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But I will have time this weekend to read some of the outliers (dis might lynch me if I don't at least read DYH again). | ||
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Little tip LS. Talking about OG stuff like this as town just craps up the thread. Doing it as Mafia makes you look evasive. Whatever your alignment, please stop it. | ||
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This is a really poorly thought through list that shows no conviction and no intention to solve. LS is Mafia. | ||
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On December 05 2015 00:21 LightningStrike wrote: Do I need to die for your sins james? Negatory. You know I like you bro. Lynching in Mafia is never personal - I have incomplete and imperfect evidence, and I have to reach certain conclusions. If I'm right, I get the glory. If I'm wrong I get the resolve to do better next time. | ||
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On December 05 2015 00:23 LightningStrike wrote: BTW James you should check my read progression of DYH? I will. I'll also read DYH's filter this evening. Work is slow today, so I've been able to play a lot of Mafia, but it's all phone posting. | ||
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Did anyone here play with Alex in his last Newbie game? | ||
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On December 05 2015 03:15 disformation wrote: Yes. I also played with him in NSM13, where he was scum. So if you have a question, please feel free to ask. Also: super lol @ Palmar =D In the last game I played with him he was like a mild-mannered small town lawyer (he was cop). This game he comes out like a Jack Russell on meth. It's just so different. But he did say after our game he wanted to work on getting his reads listened to. Was wondering how it compares to the last game. | ||
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On December 07 2015 22:17 disformation wrote: post from work: Hm. geript said in the obs QT of last game that if a town player that has very little or no pull with the thread gets nk'ed that most often means he is right. Especially if that player is an experienced one. Palmar had little pull and is an experienced player. So him disliking fidei and/or LS could be a thing. Also don't like that Fidei had no follow up on: That being said I want to check his stance on HtS yesterday and see what he brings after catching up. Will also be looking at DYH, Trfel and LS later, when I am at home. Dunno, there seem to be a bunch of candidates for today. So you know, you could like... read their (trfel/fidei/disformation) filters and the cases on them and decide which one you like most/least? -.- If you look back at my filter, you'll see that in my first or second post, I ping out HTS as being possible mafia based on her approach. I'm pretty proud of my read there. I don't see why I would have posted that early if I was on a team with Dani. I was also one of the first to make the point that Alex's read meant we had to lynch her. It was sort of the focus of my entire D2. As to not following up over the weekend - what can I say. I wasn't enthused to play much. Dani was going to get lynched whatever, and I ended up doing other things all weekend. Given that my filter is already pretty long and I've given tons of reads, I'm not sure that "he went AFK for a weekend" is a good enough reason to lynch me. In fact, it really isn't. | ||
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On December 07 2015 22:30 NocturneMage wrote: Fidei was probably discussing Mafia strategy with HTS in dota land before she was lynched Saturday night. Typical dota players. (that was a complete joke btw...I'm a League player so of course I will say this)  I asked her to give you a message that I see through all of your many lies, but it was a joke.* *Possibly not a joke. :-) | ||
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On December 07 2015 22:31 NocturneMage wrote: Rels Damdred was going back and forth, finding reasons for both rationales of town and mafia Trfel. I think Trfel is the right vote today, but if you're that suspicious of Fidei aside from the reasons I looked into him, what were your other arguments? I really need to stop with the meta/tone reads, but this really feels like town Rels to me. Mafia Rels is tryhard Rels. Obviously lynching me because Palmar was struggling with my alignment and because I went afk is a pretty ehh reason to lynch me (especially as I was right from the start on HTS), so it sort of seems like he is dis-interested town more than anything. | ||
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On December 07 2015 23:27 NocturneMage wrote: also disformation re 1855 - Palmar I think said that LS's end of cycle 1 message about him being VT pretty much exonerated him. see the posts where I queued up both Damdred and Palmar's reads to aggregate where they both stood before they died and as they played. right now, it's possible LS could be scum but based on the NKs I'm going to put him and DYH aside at this time, as scum and having been scum, you want to really eliminate the biggest threats. the only way this wouldn't apply is if you were universally townread, but that doesn't seem to be the case for any of my scumreads, so.... unless someone wants to make a non-meta based case on Fidei, the only point really sticking out at me is the soft pushing d1, and no offence James, but you know Dani and I well enough, if you DIDN'T sheep me I would have called you out on it, and if I recall right at no point in the game did you scumread me despite calling out my tone for being a "Jack Russell on meth" (lol?). So I really think that is not alignment indicative, you'd do it as town and you'd HAVE to do it as mafia. Alex, some points in response. I accept that Mafia can soft other Mafia. i suppose you have to think about whether it's more likely that Mafia James throws Dani into the scope earlier, or whether it's just town James with a good guy read on Dani. I can see that you would think I'd have to get on Dani once you were on her, regardless of alignment. But I was already on her. My read flows naturally. You might absolutely say that it's a coincidence that (1) I was right on her from the start and that (2) you came in, as town, and pinged her out for basically the same thing I did, forcing me to agree with you. But eh. I think if I was Mafia with Dani we'd try and end game you fools with both of us alive. Dani is a really good player who, if Moosy hadn't replaced out, might never have got lynched. If anything, I'd be encouraging her to start softing me. In fact, she hard town read me all the way through. Re your alignment, I really think there's a decent chance that you're Mafia. In my head this goes along the lines of Dani saying "I can't face the game any more, and people are already on to me, so this works best if you thread enter and hard bus me." I know you are married, but being as sure as you were about someone's alignment just seems really out of kilter with your previous play. But obv there is a bunch of reading for me to do before I give a final read. | ||
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On December 08 2015 00:54 Rels wrote: OK this is hard so here is what going to happen. DYH, NM: You earned a confirmed town status today due to you being the first pushers of the HTS train. Lynch another mafia and that status will probably extend to the end of the game. ??? I like that you've missed me off this list Rels. | ||
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Not that it really proves anything, I suppose. | ||
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On December 08 2015 04:28 LightningStrike wrote: We eating Dota players apparantly if he does try to eat James lol.... Anyways I still scratching my head on Palmar's NK. Like I don't a lot of people were townreading him(I was right on him at least). It would implicate someone who knows Palmar or Palmar was right on someone and they panic kill him(prob the later since I think I the only one who really have a lot of experience playing with him. During the last big dota tournament a group of casters played a lot of in person Mafia. One thing they always did was revert to talking about NKs. But particularly, talking about NKs in generality, with no particular aim in mind. Nearly home. Will commence operation catch up once dinner is on. | ||
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On December 08 2015 03:46 disformation wrote: NSM12 up to day 2: very similar to this. Starting D2 he starts to show a bit of life in his posts when talking with/to HtS and his scum reads. NSM14 he also sounds very similar to here... well besides this thing: But playing with cupcake can be rather rage inducing. So I understand. But the overwhelming amount of posts sounds like this game. So I guess that is just his default tone and dub him Mr. Roboto. Will look at his filter from this game more closely now. It wasn't Cake, it was Moosy. I should have lynched that MFer. | ||
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Anyway, now catching up. Feel free to post any questions in the thread. | ||
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On December 07 2015 09:26 disformation wrote: Ah, damn. Okay, that makes sense. Thanks for the clarification. Also for what it is worth, have some coloured votes: (went ahead and coloured myself green :p) Day 1 Kushm4sta (7): Fidei86, Damdred, LS, Shining, Rels, HTS, Palm LightningStrike (4): disformation, kushm4sta, DoYouHas, Trfel Not Voting (2): MoosyDoosy, Onegu Half the Sky (9): NocturneMage, DoYouHas, Fecalfeast, Rels, Trfel, Fidei86, Palmar, The Shining, LightningStrike DoYouHas (1): disformation NocturneMage (1): Half the Sky So to get information from this vote cycle I will try and look at the reasons/timings for voting HtS and try to see if there are plausible bus drivers. As I outlined yesterday DYH could have been such a busdriver, but I will look at the other suspects, too. Disinformation, did you ever explain why you were on DYH rather than HTS? | ||
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On December 08 2015 05:30 disformation wrote: Sry, this will probably end up being a rant on Fidei86's filter. Hm so while he was suspicious on HtS at the start he then moves to: I have a bit of trouble following his LS progression after that. Like he thinks LS is scum and then votes kush because kush's progression on LS (who he thinks is scum) is scummy? N1 he also moves back to HtS... Bold part for smiles. After that he talks a bit about a possible LS/HtS team. Seems a bit focused on certain persons. But he admitted to that earlier. His probing of NM seems town. Does he vote LS? + Show Spoiler + nope Still waiting. Not sure how "quite a while" translates to "my last mention of him is like super early D2 with a town read", but at least he is looking at more ppl than HtS,NM,LS and Trfel now. So here we have a bunch of trees. Let mediate a bit on the forest though. Yes he was suspicious of HtS early on. Did he push her hard? No. He seemed very sure about LS being scum. Did he push him? No. Does he vote him? No. He is very focused on a small group on people. Maybe trying to pick one out of the misslynch list? The reads on those people are also kinda constant. Like the scum read on LS. Promised to look at DYH, did play dota instead. While I like his interactions with NM, interactions with other ppl seem to lack a bit. Did he actually push anyone so far? So I'd say his desire to solve the game doesn't seem to be very present. Possible vote candidate. Eh, I'm not going to stand here and say that my play this game has been optimal. Plainly it hasn't been. I haven't been as active as I could have been, and I accidentally basically got our blue lynched D1. There's one thing that screams out to me from your post. You accuse me of not voting for LS, after I post that I'm sure he's mafia. D1 I got cold feet. It was a mistake. Lots of people in the thread were talking about switching, and LS was here at least fighting his corner, while kush was AFK. It was a total spur of the moment decision, and it was wrong. DAY 2, WE WERE LYNCHING HTS. WHO FLIPPED F'ING SCUM. AND I GAVE VERY CLEAR REASONS WHY I WOULD NEVER MOVE OFF HER. WHY WOULD I VOTE FOR SOMEONE ELSE? Ugh. Like, your other reasons for scumming me are fine, but that one is so bogus, it makes my eyes water. On p77/83. | ||
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On December 07 2015 22:53 disformation wrote: Hmm... yeah I think I remember you calling out HtS on D1. But here you are "only" slightly suspicious... and what is a little scum lean between good partners?  Still want to look at your whole filter and progression on HtS later tonight. The thing is: someone had to bus her. From my POV two someones have bussed HtS and I am going to find out who. Disfo I think you fundamentally misunderstand what bussing is. Bussing is where one mafia player actively works to get HTS lynched. The only people who really worked on the HTS lynch actively were NM, DYH and me. Oh and Palmar, but he's flipped town. If any of us were mafia, that would be a bus. The fact is that it was plainly obvious that she was going to get lynched once Alex, Palmar and I basically decided it. Lots of the rest of you voted for her, but just voting for a scum is not the same as bussing. Your logic is just totally wrong here. | ||
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On December 08 2015 06:11 NocturneMage wrote: Rels to answer your question on LS - I have read from the point of my main exchange with him, pges 7-9 of his filter can be summarised (1) inflating the filter with useless comments (not even part of alignment determining conversation or even afk comments) (2) parroting (examples post 1635) (3) 1450 to 1478 is an example of asking for information and not really doing anything of it This is insane for me. The NKs exonerate LS, but at the same time it is mindboggling this guy is doing dick all and people are ignoring him. His filter is 1000% mafia. Something isn't right. NK WIFOM is super dangerous. | ||
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On December 08 2015 06:35 NocturneMage wrote: James - LS read evolvement Part 1 first post - important for context. tone read indicates mafia. is hesistant because he might be misread a bit. Below is part of the list post - edited for brevity A side note and a few critical questions to ask about James. I think this is what Rels was talking about. No problem with opting to policy lynch, although from my context (see first post where Fidei says he has played with Moosy) and experience (in my last newbie Moosy martyred and almost got lynched as vigilante) and when I obsed Newbie 12, (town) HTS pushed him in that game and he almost got himself lynched but then she turned around, caught a scumslip and ultimately saved Moosy, who was town. In Newbie 13, where I was mafia, he set himself up poorly day 1, and then he got modkilled. The potential issue I have here is whether we should hold an expectation that James should have KNOWN that Moosy plays like this. You can argue him wanting to lynch Moosy is a copout based on his own admitted experience with Moosy and whether he should have known how Moosy plays. From my own memory, I think James was in Newbie 12, I obsed it. I know we had 14 together, but Moosy was mafia, and swindled us all. I don't think James was in 13, where Moosy was town and I was mafia, and I don't think he was in 17. IDK. Potential scum motivation if and only if the expectation holds that he should have known Moosy better. Disclaimer: I have not researched appropriate evidence in the database. So so far, a clear scum push on LS, with the Moosy read v expectation caveat. That was through end of cycle 1. Yes I did play 12. In that game, Moosy was 'useless' through D1, but he gave some hints that he was attempting some sort of Chezinu-type play. You're completely right - HTS caught one of the scum, and from that we cleaned up the remainder pretty easily. Yes, in 14 he did end-game me. He played very well. But looking through his game here, I don't think me makes a single sensible point throughout his entire filter. In my view, he was trying to protect his 'meta' - ie to play so indifferently that he couldn't start to develop a consistent meta. That, or he was trying a Chez type thing again. *shrug*. I read him as I saw him in this game. | ||
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I am disappointed to conclude that LS's style here is not that dissimilar from his Himalayas game. There he posted lots of pointless one line posts, unfollowed-up questions and weak meta reads. BUT I don't think we can, in good faith, not lynch LightningStrike today. I challenge anyone to go through his filter and find one nuanced or interesting though. One. His reads, as far as I can tell, are so bland that they are all almost exactly the same (ie "he sounds towny" or "he sounds like he did when he was town last game"). He is literally a coin-flip. He has done nothing to suggest he is town or to help town find mafia. He was somewhat unsure on HTS, but it's difficult to distinguish from general apathy (and he ended up voting for her anyway). Ugh. Does anyone think that there is any realistic choice of LS being NKd? There isn't, as far as I can see. And if we don't lynch him, he WILL be in lylo and, if he *is* town, we're screwed. If I'm in LYLO with him and any of you, that other person just has to point out LS's total lack of read progression, his constant questions that lead nowhere, his repeated questions as to who is about, and I would lynch him. Yes, it's partially a policy lynch. But his play is just cruising through the game without ever having to lie or really get pressured at all. And that's very scummy. It's objectively scummy. If we give him a pass because everyone's like "oh, he's always bad" then more fool us if he gets through here. Also I'm not sure enough on any of my other reads to push them now. :-/ THAT SAID I will now try and wade through disfo's filter. | ||
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BUT I think it makes more sense for a scum!disfo to stick on kushmasta. The dude was super easy lynchbait, and he couldn't have been criticised for sticking on him. He says twice in D1 that the game is hard (one is at #731). I find this ... eh. Slightly scum indicative, but only from a sophisticated player (ie trying to make the game feel harder for townies, to try and de-motivate them). For a newer player, it's probably NAI. His post at #802 is a really good catch - DYH's town read on disfo came out of nowhere. At #932 he pings out Dani, based on his experience with her before. It wasn't a super original point at the time, but I give him townie points for it. I read the rest of it, and nothing really jumped out. He has hedged all of his reads on me and Trfel, and a lot of his filter is more of a dialogue with the game than lots of cases and reads. When I posted earlier that I thought he might be scum, it was because it seemed a little bit like he was skating through and appearing busy, without actually being busy. But having reviewed the filter at length, I see enough townie things that I don't think I can scum read him for now. DYH then bed. | ||
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#185 - saying he has the "mind meld" with Damdred "for now". This qualifier is strange to me. It's almost like a town read that is given, then instantly withdrawn. #255 He talks alot about Palmar's push on TS. But his TS read here is the same as mine (well, in a way. I said that it was townie because he tried to stop it, whereas DYH focusses on him being provoked to come back in). #462 He read four filters, and came away with nothing at all? I mean, he could have at least noted that LS's filter was rubbish? At the D1 lynch, he said that he sheeped his town reads because he had dropped Trfel. His post at #642 is actually pretty towny. He exhonerates Trfel after wondering why scum!Trfel would vote for him. I find that his admitting that he was just sheeping his town reads to be pretty towny. HOWEVER, I note that his town read of disfo DOES seem to come out of nowhere. Like, literally, it just appears with no explanation, and is used to justify a vote. His correct read on HTS gives him town points (#885 and #1023). Plainly the bussing is possible. I accept that. But this is very early on in the day, with no super-obvious benefit. Yes, NM had jumped in saying he was sure HTS was scum. But unless DYH knew the NM/HTS relationship the way that others of us did, I don't think he would have necessarily assumed that we were all going to follow NM. ALthough, that said, if HTS engineered a bus in anticipation of leaving the game, it is not beyond the realms of possibility that this was part of it. Occams razor suggests not though. #1402 posts a recap of Damdred's reads (hardly *that* helpful). #1570 His read here is actually pretty insightful. It relies upon POE a little bit, but also looking at her read of disfo is pretty smart. CONCLUSION Yes, his filter is two pages. Obviously that's sub-optimal. But I don't see any particular reason to scum-read DYH, and I actually see a fair number of reasons to town read him. So I will. | ||
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On December 08 2015 14:17 DoYouHas wrote: Soooooo, my reason for townreading Trfel apparently is bad. It is association based on his interactions with HtS. I've been looking at his last scum game. If I was playing, I would never have picked up on anything odd between him and Breshke. So confused... This weakens my argument against Disfo as well, even if my initial assumption was true. ##Unvote My to-do before the deadline is to reread the cases on Trfel and Fid, read Fid's filter and decide the more likely scum. What about LS? | ||
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- His read progression on NM is okay (although it's a bit weird to start off scum reading them and then a day later be willing to mindlessly sheep him) - He doesn't seem impressed with LS' filter, but never gives a real read on him - Most importantly, most of his filter is him scum reading Trfel. BUT when it comes to voting him, he says "oh well I'm just sheeping NM". Huh? Like, his Trfel read is basically his one contribution to the game, but now he's pretending like it didn't happen, passing all responsibility onto NM. Phone post, but this filter is definitely worth diving with references if I get a chance this evening. | ||
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On December 08 2015 11:08 NocturneMage wrote: Fidei please comment on post 1691, same with Rels when you return based on your last input. I appreciate the work you put in on this Alex, but really your post seems to be a very long version of "someone might be helping LS". Of course they might. Although, if they were helping him, they'd probably tell him to stop being so hopeless. No, I think the more likely explanation is that scum LS is genuinely unable to lie. Like, he struggles with it. I struggled with it mightily too when I was mafia with Rels in SOTW2. And when you can't lie, the easiest thing to do is to constantly ask other people questions, give the blandest town reads possible to everyone and generally be useless. I should apologise to LS because if he is trying as town, I'm giving him a very hard time. But this is a game and I can only read what I have in front of me. I really, really, really want everyone to imagine this game if LS isn't lynched. He's going to continue to be an absolute coin-flip throughout the whole game. Like, people have suspicions over Trfel, me, DYH ... I have a recent suspicion on FF. But at least all of those people have shown *some* willing to try and solve the game. If any of them are town, that towniness should in theory be possible to distinguish. LS is always going to be objectively scummy in this game. He has had two full game days to change his play and he hasn't. We lynch him now, maybe hit scum, but definitely get rid of the big damn question-mark over his head. Yes, it's a policy lynch. I get that people think it's lazy. But I've been in too many games where Onegu has AFK'd through the first three days and then got mislynched at the end. | ||
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On December 08 2015 19:27 Rels wrote: Here bro. Still wanting to lynch LS ? I will fight against that lynch. (1) Screaming in all caps is LITERALLY THE EASIEST THING TO DO IN THE GAME. IT SHOULD BE USED FOR EMPHASIS ONLY WHEN MAKING IMPORTANT POINTS. (2) Who knows why HTS did what she did. But this point does hold a little more weight. I have thought about it a fair bit. I'm just concerned that it's a little too much WIFOM and a little too little objectivity. And who else do you want to lynch? Me? | ||
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WTF? How can you possibly believe that? | ||
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On December 08 2015 19:33 Rels wrote: Don't know, let's talk about it. Trfel ? You're townreading him right ? What happened to your NM potential scumread BTW ? Eh, my town read on Trfel is highly out of date. I don't think I've properly considered his filter since D1. I do recall that he has had a cast-iron scum case on most of the people in the game. I've never come across a player like that before, so I have nothing to bench mark against. I really need to wrap a cold towel around my head and start reading his filter. My potential scum-read on NM remains. I do think that it is a very possible play that NM and HTS cooked up his thread entry in a scenario where she wanted out of the game. However, the more likely option is that he just has a god-like read on Dani and has also been working hard on improving his thread presence, which is definitely a lot stronger this game than previous games. He is also the only one who seems to be town reading me. I feel buddied. | ||
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Ughhhhhhh. Fine. | ||
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On December 08 2015 21:22 LightningStrike wrote: Incoming case on James today(making it now). I wait with baited breath! | ||
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On December 08 2015 21:14 Rels wrote: Fidei: Hts tried to convince people to switch to ls over moosy at deadline, and then tried to "save" ls 15 minutes before deadline. That could indicate moosy / nm scum Hmm, I remember that I was on Moosy but was thinking about jumping to LS. Guess I really need to go back and give that period a careful think. | ||
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On December 08 2015 21:30 Rels wrote: Bro if you're mafia I ll be super impressed. Being town is frustrating, but being Mafia is like being hunted. I wonder if that's a heuristic that might help in this game. Hmm. Kind of a backhanded compliment there Rels, but I'll take it | ||
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On December 08 2015 21:37 Rels wrote: You re the one that bought up disfo saying game is hard I'm pretty sure. When I read that I thought it was town indicative. Ehhhhhhhhh it could be very slightly town indicative, but idk really. Easy to say from either alignment, and can have the effect of making town demoralised. | ||
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What are the odds that Mafia Trfel thread re-enters and calls the current wagon dumpster, and tries for a wagon on NM or Rels who nobody else wants to vote? | ||
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On December 09 2015 02:51 disformation wrote: Hm. He came in when 3 ppl where voting on his teammate D1 and called that wagon mafia motivated and tried to discredit the wagon starter. Doesn't that mean that it would be Trfel DYH? Does that team even make sense? Is it likely the two main wagons Trfel and DYH (NM! Lynch LS with me) are both Mafia? Xmas party at work. | ||
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On December 09 2015 06:31 LightningStrike wrote: btw I will read your case dis I was in class into registering for spring semester for college + Show Spoiler + I have finals this week don't expect much from me till like Night 4/Day 5 if we get that far Hey guys let's take this guy forward to LYLO! Not. Can we just fucking vote LS please? | ||
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 Sorry.Town need to consolidate now. Let me go check the voting stats and see what's what. | ||
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Like I think FF *could* be mafia, but there were points both ways in his filter | ||
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*popcorn* | ||
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For my money, unfortunately, this probably clears LS. I don't see why scum LS wouldn't have moved sooner onto Trfel. With town so fractured, I don't see scum separating their votes here. It stands to reason that the last mafia is one of NM or Rels. Also I'm sorry for being crap. Someone made the point about FF and LS both being decent lynches for the same reason. I should have moved. | ||
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It has to be one of you and Rels. In what universe does mafia not solidly vote together on a lynch, given that town was so hopelessly fractured (in part my bad). | ||
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On December 11 2015 10:55 NocturneMage wrote: the position has been explained to James twice that mafia wouldn't give themselves so easily away unless it was mylo or lylo with a confirmed mafia already on the same wagon with them. Is Fidei bad or mafia here? Looking at the votes alone you can argue that LS thinks scum played suboptimally. But both Rels and I have reasons to townread the other besides the voting. The second part is contradictory. Granted James is out of touch with the thread. Hmmmm. I'm going to say for now, suboptimal and pressed for time, as opposed to mafia. Okay I'm back. Glad there wasn't too much to catch up on. Will read DYH and disfo's filters now if I can. Quick rejoinder to the above -- you may say you have "explained" it, but I don't accept your explanation as being valid. A townie flip doesn't give nearly as much information as you are suggesting it does. And FF wasn't f'ing confirmed mafia at the time. What you're saying can be made to sound equally implausible - that on a contested lynch with votes moving all over the place, mafia wouldn't try to get a mislynch and then brazen it out. | ||
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Moving on to DYH. | ||
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On December 12 2015 01:54 Rels wrote: Here is FF post after voting HTS, 1h40 after the deadline. I didn't realize it; I actually thought FF tried to put suspicions on other people that day. Him voting her this early definitely mean it was a prepared bus. The last scum has to be NM or DYH. Or you. | ||
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On December 04 2015 09:00 DoYouHas wrote: Reposting this since Rels drowned it out with his aggression towards me last night. Seems relevant. Why do we think that lynching DYH, who made and re-posted this very early on, is a good idea. Admittedly my eyes are literally burning with tiredness right now, but I'm not convinced that either disfo or dyh are mafia. Of the two, I think it's 1,000,000 times more likely that it's DYH, but I'd actually rather lynch Rels, then NM. My reasoning, as it was before, is that I think mafia voted together on the last vote. I don't think that FF was sufficiently active to make it a dead cert that the coordination between mafia this game has been good. | ||
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I really think Rels is the last mafia here. Partly it's my POE, on the grounds that I think it's probably someone who was on Trfel, and I don't want to kill Alex yet because the big bus he planned is a bit too yolo for me to believe in. I just skimmed Rels' filter really quickly. It's not really indicative. But he barely says anything about FF really (at least not early on - I made it to page 7 before I ran out of steam). And his interactions with HTS I found really weird. He kept following on her posts with further comments. Or someone would be talking about her, and he'd be like "oh, well that's interesting, what do you think about other random townie". Also he got onto HTS totally randomly, having been wildly fluctuating around between DYH and Trfel. I recognise that this isn't exactly the most artfully put case ever. And it sort of contradicts what I've said about Rels before. THe truth is, he has a 15 page filter but I don't think he's said that much that is particularly compelling. The argument the other way is that Rels is super amazing at mafia and usually when he's mafia he's hyperactive. He is playing very differently this game, for sure. But the POE is strong. ##Vote:Rels I have to go to my Xmas Christmas Party tomorrow. Then I will sleep for approx. 1,000 yrs tomorrow. But when I wake up I will be ready to either celebrate the victory, or else figure out which of you other bastards is actually mafia | ||
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Actually it's a shitty point. I just checked, and the only person on disfo was DYH. Who is now on Rels. So it's actually NAI, and could be just an attempt to find a better wagon. But your sheep is noted. | ||
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On December 12 2015 02:25 disformation wrote: arent you christmas partying all week already? My poor liver. RIP. | ||
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On December 12 2015 02:30 NocturneMage wrote: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/499392-dark-tournament-mini-mafia-voting-thread?page=5 I voted him first thing. I pulled my vote (page 6) after I saw Rels' first argument. whatever. I meant this cycle. Or is the vote tally not up to date? | ||
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PS I look good in a tux | ||
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On December 12 2015 07:18 Rels wrote: I'm at a comp. Come at me bros. DYH why are you voting me ? You think it's DYH? | ||
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Honestly he has such a short filter ... Ugh. One more beer. Then final gut check. | ||
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On December 12 2015 08:00 NocturneMage wrote: It's fine. I gave my last reads. It's Rels. Just fucking take out Rels. QFT | ||
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Look forward to the message from TL Admins telling me off for using Twitch emotes. | ||
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Eh. Hopefully scum shoot Shining so I get another chance to solve. | ||
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Town really need to pull together now. We have one more mislynch. That's plenty of time. We all need to put aside all of our preconceptions about the game and discard everything we think. Nobody is safe town. Consider everyone. Somewhere there's a slip and we can find it. I refuse to lose this game. Also sorry Rels. I should have moved onto DYH. | ||
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Kushm4sta (7): Fidei86, Damdred, LS, Shining, Rels, HTS, Palm LightningStrike (4): disformation, kushm4sta, DoYouHas, Trfel Not Voting (2): MoosyDoosy, Onegu DAY 2 Half the Sky (9): NocturneMage, DoYouHas, Fecalfeast, Rels, Trfel, Fidei86, Palmar, The Shining, LightningStrike DoYouHas (1): disformation NocturneMage (1): Half the Sky DAY 3 Fecalfeast (3): Trfel, The Shining, disformation Trfel (3): NocturneMage, Fecalfeast, Rels LightningStrike (1): Fidei86 Fidei86 (1): LightningStrike Disinformation (1): DoYouHas DAY 4 Rels (3): DoYouHas, NocturneMage, The Shining DoYouHas (2): disformation, LightningStrike NocturneMage (2): Fidei86, Rels | ||
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Kushm4sta (7): Fidei86, Damdred, LS, Shining, Rels, HTS, Palm LightningStrike (4): disformation, kushm4sta, DoYouHas, Trfel Not Voting (2): MoosyDoosy, Onegu DAY 2 Half the Sky (9): NocturneMage, DoYouHas, Fecalfeast, Rels, Trfel, Fidei86, Palmar, The Shining, LightningStrike DoYouHas (1): disformation NocturneMage (1): Half the Sky DAY 3 Fecalfeast (3): Trfel, The Shining, disformation Trfel (3): NocturneMage, Fecalfeast, Rels LightningStrike (1): Fidei86 Fidei86 (1): LightningStrike Disinformation (1): DoYouHas DAY 4 Rels (3): DoYouHas, NocturneMage, The Shining DoYouHas (2): disformation, LightningStrike NocturneMage (2): Fidei86, Rels | ||
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For those wondering, I held my shot because a mis-shoot would send town to a 3-1 LYLO, which is massively disadvantageous. The only two shots I seriously considered were HTS on N1 and LS on N4. | ||
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Although, you know, that reasoning doesn't hold in the abstract because if there was no CC, I would have to just be idiot blue. If there was a CC, you would have to ask why that claimant hadn't claimed earlier either. | ||
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On December 15 2015 19:36 Rels wrote: No it's the absolute correct play; if you don't claim and scum counted on you to be one of his two mislynches, you claiming at LYLO-1 destroys his plan of lynching you, but he cannot counter claim either. WP on your HTS' read (= Yeah - called it from the off. Glad Alex came in and we could get her lynched. Not sure if I would have had the cahones to push it through. | ||
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